How to best avoid 4th quarter breakdowns?

[mstjern]

Hi guys, been playing SP for quite a while and just started playing in a MP league. I have *never* seen a 4th quarter breakdown like the one below before. Wondering how to best avoid 4th quarter comebacks from the opposing team? I'm playing Denver and looking through the below log, I just can't see how I would've played it much different even if I had manual playcalling on. I can understand that the roll of the dice causes some of the below, but Baltimore overcame two(!) 4th downs, had a successful onside and then Vick(!) somehow managed to throw the ball 56 yards INTO double coverage against a Dime 3 Deep Zone and tied the game with 27 seconds to go. In OT I fumble, stop them at the 34 yard line and their super kicker with 42 in accuracy managed to hit a 51 yard fieldgoal. It feels like Madden catch-up logic.


27-6 Denver. 4th quarter. Then at 5.09, this happens:

Baltimore: I formation, strength is left. The defense is in a 43 with nickel personnel and 3-deep zone coverage, expecting the pass.
1-9-DEN09 (4Q: 05:09) Michael Vick pass completed to WR Eric Moulds for 9 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! Denver 27, Baltimore 12

Denver 3 and out, then Baltimore starts their version of "The Drive(s)"

Baltimore: Single-Back formation, strength is right. The defense is in a 43 with nickel personnel and 3-deep zone coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
1-10-BAL38 (4Q: 02:35) Michael Vick pass fell incomplete, intended for WR Chris Henry. S Brian Walker defended the pass. The defense looked very familiar with that play.
Baltimore: I formation, strength is left. The defense is in a 43 with nickel personnel and 2-deep bump-and-run coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
2-10-BAL38 (4Q: 02:26) Michael Vick pass fell incomplete, intended for WR Eric Moulds. DT Jarvis Green drove right through Eugene McNeil to hurry the quarterback. The defense looked very familiar with that play.
Baltimore: Strong formation, strength is right. The defense is in a 43 with nickel personnel and 4-deep zone coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
3-10-BAL38 (4Q: 02:1 Michael Vick pass was blocked at the line, intended for WR Pat Harrison. DE Antwan Odom blocked the pass. The defense looked very familiar with that play. The quarterback threw away from the double coverage.
Baltimore: Single-Back formation, strength is right. The defense is in a 43 with dime personnel and 2-deep bump-and-run coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
4-10-BAL38 (4Q: 02:0 Michael Vick pass completed to TE Spencer Ford for 10 yards. Tackled by CB Leon Van-Pelt, assisted by S Oliver Charron.
Official time out for the two-minute warning.
Baltimore: Single-Back formation, strength is left. The defense is in a 43 with dime personnel and 2-deep bump-and-run coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
1-10-BAL48 (4Q: 02:00) Michael Vick pass was dropped by WR Chris Henry. The defense looked extremely familiar with that play. PENALTY: Baltimore was called for Offensive Holding.
Baltimore: Single-Back formation with trips receivers, strength is left. The defense is in a 43 with prevent personnel and 4-deep zone coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
1-20-BAL38 (4Q: 01:51) Michael Vick pass completed to TE Patrick McCree for 15 yards. Tackled by CB J.J. Cockerham.
Baltimore: Strong formation, strength is left. The defense is in a 43 with prevent personnel and 4-deep zone coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
2-5-DEN47 (4Q: 01:30) Michael Vick pass was blocked at the line, intended for WR Justin Reinard. DE Antwan Odom blocked the pass.
Baltimore: Strong formation with three wideouts, strength is left. The defense is in a 43 with prevent personnel and 4-deep zone coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
3-5-DEN47 (4Q: 01:22) Michael Vick pass was dropped by WR Chris Henry.
Baltimore: Single-Back formation with trips receivers, strength is right. The defense is in a 43 with prevent personnel and 4-deep zone coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
4-5-DEN47 (4Q: 01:10) PENALTY: Baltimore was called for a False Start.
Baltimore: Pro formation with two tight ends, strength is right. The defense is in a 43 with goal-line personnel and 2-deep bump-and-run coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
4-10-BAL48 (4Q: 01:10) Michael Vick pass completed to TE Spencer Ford for 10 yards. Tackled by CB DeAngelo Hall, assisted by OLB Lance Briggs. The receiver ran his route right over the middle of the field. Ford gained 1 yard after the catch. The quarterback threw away from the double coverage.
(4Q: 01:10) Baltimore called a time out.
Baltimore: Strong formation with three wideouts, strength is left. The defense is in a 43 with goal-line personnel and 2-deep bump-and-run coverage, expecting the pass.
1-10-DEN42 (4Q: 01:01) Michael Vick pass completed to WR Eric Moulds for 16 yards. Tackled by DT Kendall Welch.
(4Q: 01:01) Baltimore called a time out.
Baltimore: Strong formation, strength is left. The defense is in a 43 with nickel personnel and 3-deep zone coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
1-10-DEN26 (4Q: 00:52) Michael Vick pass completed to WR Pat Harrison for 26 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! The quarterback threw away from the double coverage. Denver 27, Baltimore 19
(4Q: 00:52) Extra point by Dave Rayner was good. Denver 27, Baltimore 20
(4Q: 00:33) Dave Rayner kicked off from the BAL30. BAL James Mungro recovered the kick.
Baltimore: I formation with two tight ends, strength is right. The defense is in a 43 with dime personnel and 3-deep zone coverage, expecting the pass. Charron is blitzing.
1-10-BAL44 (4Q: 00:27) Michael Vick pass completed to WR Eric Moulds for 56 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! The quarterback threw into double coverage. Denver 27, Baltimore 26
(4Q: 00:27) Extra point by Dave Rayner was good. Baltimore 27, Denver 27
(4Q: 00:06) Dave Rayner kicked off 68 yards from the BAL30. Thurman Cox returned the ball 32 yards to the DEN34. Tackled by James Mungro.
Denver won the coin toss and will receive to begin overtime.
Start of overtime 1.
(OT: 15:00) Dave Rayner kicked off 79 yards from the BAL30. Touchback.
Denver: I formation, with the second wideout in the slot, strength is right. The defense is in a 34 and 3-deep zone coverage, keying aggressively on the run. Schultz and Woodson are blitzing.
1-10-DEN20 (OT: 15:00) Ahman Green ran a draw inside the left guard for 2 yards. Tackled by ILB Brian Urlacher. Baltimore's Darren Howard was hurt on the play.
Denver: Single-Back formation with four receivers, strength is left. The defense is in a 34 with dime personnel and 4-deep zone coverage, expecting the pass.
2-8-DEN22 (OT: 14:2 Daunte Culpepper pass completed to WR Thurman Cox for 11 yards. Tackled by S Marviel Underwood. Cox gained 1 yard after the catch. The quarterback threw away from the double coverage.
Denver: Single-Back formation with trips receivers, strength is right. The defense is in a 34 and 3-deep zone coverage, expecting the run.
1-10-DEN33 (OT: 14:03) Daunte Culpepper pass completed to WR Dustin Tripodi for 20 yards. Tackled by S Jon McGraw. The ball was fumbled and recovered by BAL Charles Woodson on the BAL47.
Baltimore: Single-Back formation with trips receivers, strength is left. The defense is in a 43 with dime personnel and 2-deep bump-and-run coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
1-10-BAL47 (OT: 13:47) Ronnie Brown ran around the left tackle for 4 yards. Tackled by S Michael Lewis.
Baltimore: Single-Back formation, strength is right. The defense is in a 43 with dime personnel and 4-deep zone coverage, expecting the pass.
2-6-DEN49 (OT: 13:06) Ronnie Brown ran around the left tackle for 6 yards. Tackled by DE Antwan Odom. Key block delivered by Kevin Houser. Denver's Leon Van-Pelt was hurt on the play.
Baltimore: Single-Back formation, strength is left. The defense is in a 43 and 4-deep zone coverage, expecting the run.
1-10-DEN43 (OT: 12:21) Michael Vick pass was blocked at the line, intended for WR Pat Harrison. DE Marques Douglas blocked the pass.
Baltimore: I formation, strength is right. The defense is in a 43 and 3-deep zone coverage, expecting the run.
2-10-DEN43 (OT: 12:16) Michael Vick pass completed to RB Ronnie Brown for 9 yards. The receiver went out of bounds. Tackled by S Brian Walker.
Baltimore: Pro formation, strength is right. The defense is in a 43 and strong-side man, otherwise cover-7 zone coverage, keying aggressively on the run.
3-1-DEN34 (OT: 11:31) PENALTY: Baltimore was called for a False Start.
Baltimore: Strong formation with two tight ends, strength is right. The defense is in a 43 with dime personnel and weak-side man, otherwise cover-7 zone coverage, expecting the pass. Briggs and Hall are blitzing.
3-6-DEN39 (OT: 11:26) Michael Vick pass completed to WR Chris Henry for 5 yards. Tackled by CB J.J. Cockerham.
4-1-DEN34 (OT: 10:46) Dave Rayner attempted a 51 yard field goal and succeeded. Baltimore 30, Denver 27
Final Score: Baltimore Ravens 30, Denver Broncos 27

[Warhammer]

Its really had to say what the problem is without knowing what formations and defenses you are running. I've seen plenty of such collapses, had 4 of them last year in one of my leagues. Talk about frustrating...

[MrBigglesworth]

I had a game once where I was up 13 or so, had the ball and a first down with under 2 mins left, and had a fumble returned for a TD, they got the onside kick, and scored again and I lost.

Some things effecting 4th quarter comebacks:

1) Coaches' respective motivation ratings
2) QB's prior 4th quarter comebacks
3) QB's 2 minute drill
4) Playcalling/gameplan

[Solecismic]

There is no catchup code in the engine - at no point in the results generation area of the engine is the score even calculated.

The potential sum total of the ratings adjustments for motivation, prior comebacks, etc, is a tiny fraction of the player ratings.

I don't think catchup code is a good idea. It doesn't appeal to me as a gamer, so it has never been part of FOF in any form.

[Hammer]

Prior comebacks? Thats nice. Any other little gems we should know about?

[Warhammer]

I like to up my 3-Deep and 4-Deep zone in the 4th quarter and for plans where I am ahead. It makes you more susceptible to the underneath stuff, but keeps you from getting killed by the long stuff.

[Anthony]

i refuse to play 4 Deep. i employ 2 shutdown CBs in my MP league (using FOF2K4 and soon to be 2k7), plus one of the best shutdown safeties in the league. i rather use man to man and 2 deep as much as possible, and only occassionaly will utilize 3 Deep. 4 Deep keeps drives going, as long as you keep getting 1st downs you can keep marching down the field.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Hell Atlantic

i refuse to play 4 Deep. i employ 2 shutdown CBs in my MP league (using FOF2K4 and soon to be 2k7), plus one of the best shutdown safeties in the league. i rather use man to man and 2 deep as much as possible, and only occassionaly will utilize 3 Deep. 4 Deep keeps drives going, as long as you keep getting 1st downs you can keep marching down the field.

No argument there, but in the closing minutes I'd rather have them complete a bunch of underneath stuff rather than one big play that scores for them.
The key is knowing when to go into that defense.

[Ajaxab]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

There is no catchup code in the engine - at no point in the results generation area of the engine is the score even calculated.

The potential sum total of the ratings adjustments for motivation, prior comebacks, etc, is a tiny fraction of the player ratings.

I don't think catchup code is a good idea. It doesn't appeal to me as a gamer, so it has never been part of FOF in any form.

It is entirely plausible that catchup code isn't in the engine, but I, like some others, am baffled as to why some games play out as though there is some kind of catchup code.

It seems bizarre to me that one of my MP teams is swiss cheese against the pass in the 4th quarter, but another with clearly inferior talent and inferior coaching has the ability to stop teams in the same situation. Granted the cohesion of the former is poorer than the latter, but if cohesion is the key variable, then what can be done to deal with the situation? Wait for a few seasons? Of course there could be some other variables that go into the equation. But then we're back to that problem of trying to figure out how we know what's 'really' going on, the great epistemological problem of the text sim.

I like this game for the most part, but sometimes I'm left handcuffed about how to fix a problem because I don't feel I can always get at what might be causing it. The symptoms are loud and evident, but the solutions seem so opaque at times.

[cthomer5000]

Originally Posted by Hammer

Prior comebacks? Thats nice. Any other little gems we should know about?

QB comebacks are actually a factor in how likely the QB is to comeback again. So if you had two QBs with absolutely identical ratings, one with 25 comebacks under his belt already and one with 0, the guy with 25 comebacks is more likely to pull off the comeback in that situation.

I think it's a relatively small factor, but this is something that Jim confirmed somewhere... not sure what thread off the top of my head.

[dberner30]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

There is no catchup code in the engine - at no point in the results generation area of the engine is the score even calculated.

The potential sum total of the ratings adjustments for motivation, prior comebacks, etc, is a tiny fraction of the player ratings.

I don't think catchup code is a good idea. It doesn't appeal to me as a gamer, so it has never been part of FOF in any form.

so how about an explanation for why games change radically at halftime and in the 4th Quarter. What is the factor that changes one team dominating another and then all the sudden the team getting worked comes alive to reverse the tide and dominate. Why is it that turnovers and penalties increase in the 2nd half to stall drives or continue drives in these situations. i know you like to keep secrets on the coding etc but some discussion of what factors impact 2nd half performance versus 1st half performance would be enlightening. some explanation for why coaches cant seem to make penalty decisions that are moron level football stuff...like accepting penalties on kickoffs that cause a re-kick when your team turns over the ball....like accepting penalties that generate 1st downs and continue drives rather than decline and take a FG or let the punt happen. these odd dynamics seem to happen late in games and not early in games. are these part of the formula

[CraigSca]

Dberner - how 'bout an explanation for the way you asked your question?

I know you're miffed from "supposed" injustices in the USFL, but why not document the issues (as you see them) and present them to Jim in an intelligent and respectful manner? For instance, try something like this:

"Jim, I find your statement regarding the lack of comeback code interesting. In my MP league, the USFL, I have found that there have been numerous times where a) my team has been ahead at halftime only to suffer a second half collapse as well as b) late 4th quarter drives by the opposition to pull defeat from the claws of victory. I have also found some instances where the the intelligence behind the acceptance or declining of penalties to be lacking, especially late in games. For instance, in the past few weeks I've had the following examples:

a) whatever
b) whatever
c) whatever

Can you provide any insight into this matter?

Thanks,

Joe Blow"

There you go!

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by dberner30

so how about an explanation for why games change radically at halftime and in the 4th Quarter. What is the factor that changes one team dominating another and then all the sudden the team getting worked comes alive to reverse the tide and dominate.

As far as I'm aware, this happens in the real-life NFL too - can't think of a specific example off the top of my head, but I've watched/listened to games where a team hasn't been able to do a thing on offence in the first half, then has a chance of a two-minute drill at the end of the first half and starts to move the ball with ease. Something else that happens is that a team is doing everything right, then has to go in to sit down for 15 minutes at halftime - that sometimes seriously disrupts momentum...

Martin

[yabanci]

Setting aside the question of comeback code, there's something very wrong with the end-of-game playcalling that is contributing to easy 4th quarter comebacks.

The problem appears to be that for some reason defenses are incorrectly switching to goal-line formations at the end of games when they should be switching to prevent or other aggressive pass formations, and the offenses are killing the defenses when the defenses are put in this wrong formation.


Here is an example from a single player game I had tonight.

The game is Oakland at Baltimore, I'm Oakland.

We are up 30-27 with 6 seconds to go in the game. Baltimore is on its own 20 yard line. It goes 4WR against my dime defense and gets an incomplete pass.

Now it's 2nd and 10 and Baltimore has 1 second left to gain 80 yards for a win. If ever there was a time for a prevent defense, this is it. But instead, my defense switches to a goal-line formation and gets killed for a touchdown.

Baltimore: Single-Back formation with four receivers, strength is left. The defense is in a 43 with dime personnel and 3-deep zone coverage, expecting the pass.

1-10-BAL20 (4Q: 00:06) Kyle Boller pass fell incomplete, intended for WR Derrick Mason.

----------

Baltimore: Weak formation with three wide receivers, strength is right. The defense is in a 43 with goal-line personnel and 2-deep bump-and-run coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.

2-10-BAL20 (4Q: 00:01) Kyle Boller pass completed to WR Demetrius Williams for 80 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! Williams gained 34 yards after the catch. The quarterback threw away from the double coverage. Baltimore 33, Oakland 30

(4Q: 00:01) Extra point by Matt Stover was good. Baltimore 34, Oakland 30

Final Score: Baltimore Ravens 34, Oakland Raiders 30

Now, for three reasons it is absolutely impossible for this particular defense to be called in this situation:

(1) my Defensive Personnel Choices had zero use of the goal-line defense while playing pass aggressive. This should have eliminated any possibility of lining up in a goal-line formation here.

(2) none of my pass coverage schemes had any bump and run in this game. This should have eliminated any possibility of playing bump and run coverage here.

(3) regardless of the Basic Defensive Game Plan and Defensive Game Plan Adjustments, the game is supposed to make sure you are in the appropriate type of defense for the game situation at the end of each half. As stated by the help file for the Defensive Basic Game Plan Screen, "The game will also abandon these choices right at the end of each half, depending on the situation." This should have eliminated the combination of lining up in a goal-line formation while playing aggressive bump and run coverage in a game situation that called for a prevent defense or at the very least a dime or nickel.


*********

This is not just an isolated incident. An owner in my multiplayer league pointed out the same thing, plus another wierd problem. This is from the last two minutes of his game when his team was playing defense while up by 14 points with less than 2 minutes left:

Indianapolis: Pro formation, strength is right. The defense is in a 34 with goal-line personnel and 2-deep bump-and-run coverage, expecting the pass. Hudgens is blitzing.

2-10-IND45 (4Q: 01:19) Mack Weiss pass fell incomplete, intended for WR Tim Dawson. DT Willie Hudgens hurried the quarterback into a bad throw. The quarterback threw into double coverage.

-----

Indianapolis: Strong formation with three wideouts, strength is right. The defense is in a 34 with goal-line personnel and 2-deep bump-and-run coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.


3-10-IND45 (4Q: 01:08) Mack Weiss pass completed to WR Tim Dawson for 55 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! Dawson gained 11 yards after the catch. The quarterback threw away from the double coverage. Minnesota 31, Indianapolis 23

Again we have a team up by 14 points in the last two minutes of the game playing goal-line defense when the game plan doesn't allow for goal-line in pass aggressive or for bump and run in any situation. We also have a DT blitzing for some reason (not in the game plan).


*********

You can also see this problem contributing to the original poster's tragedy.

His team was up 27-13 with a little over a minute to go. Notice that on 4th and 5 on his 47, his defense is playing prevent. The offense gets called for a false start, making it 4th and 10 on Baltimore's 48, even more of a passing situation. If he stops them here, the game's over and he wins.

But at this point his defense switches to goal-line personnel, bump and run, aggressive pass, and the offense easily converts the 4th down. The defense again lines up in goal-line and the offense picks up another 16 yards before getting the game-tying touchdown.

Baltimore: Single-Back formation with trips receivers, strength is right. The defense is in a 43 with prevent personnel and 4-deep zone coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.

4-5-DEN47 (4Q: 01:10) PENALTY: Baltimore was called for a False Start.

------

Baltimore: Pro formation with two tight ends, strength is right. The defense is in a 43 with goal-line personnel and 2-deep bump-and-run coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.

4-10-BAL48 (4Q: 01:10) Michael Vick pass completed to TE Spencer Ford for 10 yards. Tackled by CB DeAngelo Hall, assisted by OLB Lance Briggs. The receiver ran his route right over the middle of the field. Ford gained 1 yard after the catch. The quarterback threw away from the double coverage.

-------

(4Q: 01:10) Baltimore called a time out.

-------

Baltimore: Strong formation with three wideouts, strength is left. The defense is in a 43 with goal-line personnel and 2-deep bump-and-run coverage, expecting the pass.

1-10-DEN42 (4Q: 01:01) Michael Vick pass completed to WR Eric Moulds for 16 yards. Tackled by DT Kendall Welch.

*********

I took a quick look at another close game in our multiplayer league. Here, Buffalo was down by 2 points with 11 seconds to go. Arizona plays a dime and forces an incompletion, but then inexplicably switches to this goal-line defense on the last play of the game. Fortunately for Arizona, the comeback didn't succeed because the receiver dropped what probably was a game-winning pass.

Arizona 40, Buffalo 38

Buffalo: Pro formation with two tight ends, strength is left. The defense is in a 34 with dime personnel and 3-deep zone coverage, expecting the pass. Allen is blitzing.

1-10-ARI50 (4Q: 00:11) Chuck Wilkins pass fell incomplete, intended for TE Sedrick Finley. DT J.B. Green hurried the quarterback into a bad throw. The quarterback threw away from the double coverage.

------------

Buffalo: Single-Back formation, strength is left. The defense is in a 34 with goal-line personnel and 2-deep bump-and-run coverage, expecting the pass. Allen and Pierce are blitzing.

2-10-ARI50 (4Q: 00:04) Chuck Wilkins pass was dropped by WR Renaldo Sargent.
Final Score: Arizona Cardinals 40, Buffalo Bills 38

*********

Who knows how many are being affected by this. The constant seems to be the defense giving up game-changing plays after switching to goal-line personnel, bump and run coverage in the most extreme end-of-game pass situations. I have no idea what triggers it.

[twothree]

When the offense is in hurry up mode, I can see a defense getting caught having to use goal line personnel if the defense used it in a previous play. But, none of your examples show that happening.

In addition, I am guessing, since most people have a 0 for expecting the pass and a 0 for pass aggressive choosing goal line personnel, this looks like a problem (the recommend button puts a 0 in the box, usually? almost always?).

Based on your examples, my guess would be that when the game engine selects 2-deep bump and run coverage against the pass; somehow, the choice for using goal line personnel is erroneously being made by the code.

[mstjern]

I does look like 2-deep bump & run is the culprit based on the above. I'm going to zero that out for a few games and see if that makes a difference.

[dberner30]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

Dberner - how 'bout an explanation for the way you asked your question?

I know you're miffed from "supposed" injustices in the USFL, but why not document the issues (as you see them) and present them to Jim in an intelligent and respectful manner? For instance, try something like this:

"Jim, I find your statement regarding the lack of comeback code interesting. In my MP league, the USFL, I have found that there have been numerous times where a) my team has been ahead at halftime only to suffer a second half collapse as well as b) late 4th quarter drives by the opposition to pull defeat from the claws of victory. I have also found some instances where the the intelligence behind the acceptance or declining of penalties to be lacking, especially late in games. For instance, in the past few weeks I've had the following examples:

a) whatever
b) whatever
c) whatever

Can you provide any insight into this matter?

Thanks,

Joe Blow"

There you go!

im not miffed about injustices in particular league. This happens in all leagues and to many other players. heck, im not miffed at all. I would expect some quality control over some of these issues. Here are a couple....

1. Roughing the kicker is a 15 yd penalty. I have seen it declined and the punt being taken instead. I dont care how good the punt might be. You take the penalty and continue the drive.

2. On a kickoff I have seen a team fumble the kick and the kicking team recover. The kicking team was penalized for offsides and the receiving team (that fumbled the ball away) declined the penalty. (BTW this one worked to my favor as I was the kicking team).

3. Penalties on 4th down that result in a first down should be accepted unless end of game or half situation then you just keep the 3 points. I have seen those declined and thus keeping the 3 points rather than take the 1st down and continue the drive.

4. Another classic moment very recently was the end of the half 1st down with 10 seconds somewhere around the 15 yd line. Team lines up for the FG. Then fakes it and fails. Thankfully the clock doesnt run out and the team lines up for a 2nd FG try and scores. Give me a break on this one. If you want to try and score just run the play. If you want to kick just kick. This is a bug generated by random code calling a fake. Adjust the code and turn off the fake in this setting.

5. I still see odd timeout usage. Im on defense. End of the half situation. Other team has the ball with less than a minute on their end of the field. They start to march. on a 1st down play near midfield with time for one play on the clock my team calls the timeout and allows the opponent yet one more shot to score against me. This is not smart football. This one doesnt even qualify for idiot football. It just wouldnt happen. And this is not isolated. This scenario happens a lot.


I will try to remember some others and post them for all.

In terms of the 2nd half/4th quarter issue, I have watched gameplans not get executed. I just had a game where my throwing % is very high for 3rd downs and the yardage situation and my team pounded the rock and failed to get 1st downs in two key late game drives. i ended up being a victim to a comeback. I cant get a finger on it but something in the code isnt right in late game situations. Gameplans are ignored or the low percent items are just coming up way too often. Not sure why.

I do think FOF 2007 is doing a better job on the penalty choices. The gameplan issue seems a bit broken though in some situations.

[dberner30]

and as an aside i have also seen a bit too much of the late game goal line defense usage. i have also seen goal line defense overused at early points in games. Maybe its a generic goal line defense choice issue and not just late in the game.

[mstjern]

Don't know if this actually proves anything, but setting use of goal-line personnel to zero completely avoids the use of the formation. Setting 2-deep bump-and-run coverage to zero does not. I.e. even if you set 2-deep bump-and-run coverage to zero in all situations, it's still getting used.

[Ufer]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

There is no catchup code in the engine - at no point in the results generation area of the engine is the score even calculated.

The potential sum total of the ratings adjustments for motivation, prior comebacks, etc, is a tiny fraction of the player ratings.

I don't think catchup code is a good idea. It doesn't appeal to me as a gamer, so it has never been part of FOF in any form.

Originally Posted by MartinD

As far as I'm aware, this happens in the real-life NFL too - can't think of a specific example off the top of my head, but I've watched/listened to games where a team hasn't been able to do a thing on offence in the first half, then has a chance of a two-minute drill at the end of the first half and starts to move the ball with ease. Something else that happens is that a team is doing everything right, then has to go in to sit down for 15 minutes at halftime - that sometimes seriously disrupts momentum...

Martin

I think this thread also shows something about real-life football and the narrative storylines fed to us by commentators and the media. Also other sports. Reading this thread I was instantly reminded of an old friend who 20-25 years ago was in a Stratomatic Baseball league. He made a very bad trade, dumping a star player, claiming that the guy "could not hit in the clutch" -- this was also what the media was writing about the real-life player. "But it's a card and some dice," I whined to no avail. My friend was very upset when the star started "hitting in the clutch" and lead the other Strat owner to the title.

I do believe that certain NFL players play better/worse in crunch time but I think the concept is drastically overblown by the media and the players and the fans, because they want to ignore and deny random variation and enjoy the storylines. Anyone who's played several FOF careers should see this. [I won't even start on my pet-peeves about "momentum" and "confidence"]

For those who believe the momentum swings and comebacks must've been programmed in by Jim, please do not invest any meaningful portion of your net worth in poker, as you will always be telling bad-beat stories and claiming poker is rigged. All I can say is: "LOL Documents"

[mstjern]

Originally Posted by Ufer

For those who believe the momentum swings and comebacks must've been programmed in by Jim, please do not invest any meaningful portion of your net worth in poker, as you will always be telling bad-beat stories and claiming poker is rigged. All I can say is: "LOL Documents"

I don't believe for a second that it's programmed in. Plenty of evidence out there that weird comebacks happen in real life. I do believe we may have found a bug with goal-line defense being used in situations where it shouldn't when 2 deep bump & run pass coverage is in use.

[RedKingGold]

I think it's funny when people actually debate or argue against what the developer actually says is in the game.

[dberner30]

so what has the developer really told us about some of these issues. There is no "comeback code". The mysterious elements are only a "tiny fraction" of player ratings. That really doesnt address the questions about playcalling, penalties, decision-making at key times by coaching staff etc. I guess my question is this -- Does the game operate the same whether its the 1st possession or the last possession? Is there a difference between 1st half play and 2nd half play? Is the 4th Quarter different? What basic factors are different here if any? It would be nice to understand what parts of coaching ratings impact these things (if any). Are the extra penalties a function of randomness or is there something in the ratings for the players we dont see? Why dont we know who is committing the penalty? If the penalties (like false start or holding) are related to the OL player lacking discipline it would be nice to know so you can whack the guy etc. If purely random why does a coach with excellent discipline seem to have very little impact on penalties as compared to a mediocre coach in this area? The only answer that seems to ever pop out is that its a mystery so you can enjoy the game. Frankly those mysteries have the opposite effect. If my team commits a lot of penalties I want to be able to sort out why and which players/coaches are the problem and take action accordingly.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

I will also add anecdotally that end of game/half timeouts are still not completely there. And my pet peeve is an offense that has the ball on about the 10-20 yard line with 40 seconds left at the end of the first half and decides to run it 3 times and then kick the FG. My team is heavy pass oriented so this should not happen. The other pet peeve is a similar situation where the offense has timeouts, and decides only to run the ball twice and then kick the FG even though it has a timeout, and could take a shot at the end zone or at least try another play with enough time left on the clock. Now, let me say that 2K7 is way better with this stuff but not perfect.

[dberner30]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

I will also add anecdotally that end of game/half timeouts are still not completely there. And my pet peeve is an offense that has the ball on about the 10-20 yard line with 40 seconds left at the end of the first half and decides to run it 3 times and then kick the FG. My team is heavy pass oriented so this should not happen. The other pet peeve is a similar situation where the offense has timeouts, and decides only to run the ball twice and then kick the FG even though it has a timeout, and could take a shot at the end zone or at least try another play with enough time left on the clock. Now, let me say that 2K7 is way better with this stuff but not perfect.

amen brother. my item 5 is too narrow. I see the issue this way as well on the offensive side. Now you would have appreciated that fake FG attempt I referenced above. Its a team taking a "shot"

[Kozure]

Originally Posted by yabanci

Who knows how many are being affected by this. The constant seems to be the defense giving up game-changing plays after switching to goal-line personnel, bump and run coverage in the most extreme end-of-game pass situations. I have no idea what triggers it.

I noticed in my eNFL team (Minnesota) that under Defensive Personnel Choices, I had a negative number (-2) entered under Very Aggressive pass defense for Goalline situations. I think this caused my defensive to go into a goalline defense (with 2-deep bump and run coverage) even though I don't play bump and run at all.

I fixed the negative number (which I have no idea how it got in there), and it didn't occur the next week, which is nice. So it may be good for everyone to check to see if they have any negative numbers entered anywhere. It may cause the game to error when deciding which formation to use in different situations.

[yabanci]

Originally Posted by Kozure

I noticed in my eNFL team (Minnesota) that under Defensive Personnel Choices, I had a negative number (-2) entered under Very Aggressive pass defense for Goalline situations. I think this caused my defensive to go into a goalline defense (with 2-deep bump and run coverage) even though I don't play bump and run at all.

I fixed the negative number (which I have no idea how it got in there), and it didn't occur the next week, which is nice. So it may be good for everyone to check to see if they have any negative numbers entered anywhere. It may cause the game to error when deciding which formation to use in different situations.

I definitely had zero under pass aggressive/goal-line, so I'm not sure that explains it.

It's strange that you're saying you had a negative number on your Defensive Personnel screen. I've been trying to duplicate that and it's impossible to set a negative number on the Defensive Personnel screen. So if you did have a negative number, something very screwy is going on with the game altering personnel choices to do the impossible (expecting aggressive pass -2% of the time). How about posting a screenshot of your -2? I can email you the game file if you need it.

[Ajaxab]

Saw the goal line personnel, 2 deep bnr defense come up again in a situation not suited for it. The defense was called when we were up 1 with less than a minute to go in the game and the opponent facing a 4th and 26 inside their 30. The result? 28 yard completion and a first down. Of course the other team went on to kick a fg. The problem was only alleviated by our fluke kick return for a game winning td.

[mstjern]

I see it in pretty much every game. The only work-around I've been able to find so far is setting use of goal-line personnel to zero. Which kind of sucks.

Setting 2-deep bump-and-run coverage to zero does not stop it. I.e. even if you set 2-deep bump-and-run coverage to zero in all situations, you'll still get 2-deep bump-and-run in goalline formation.

[Kozure]

Originally Posted by yabanci

I definitely had zero under pass aggressive/goal-line, so I'm not sure that explains it.

It's strange that you're saying you had a negative number on your Defensive Personnel screen. I've been trying to duplicate that and it's impossible to set a negative number on the Defensive Personnel screen. So if you did have a negative number, something very screwy is going on with the game altering personnel choices to do the impossible (expecting aggressive pass -2% of the time). How about posting a screenshot of your -2? I can email you the game file if you need it.

I fixed the -2, and I can no longer duplicate it either. Believe me, though, it was there.

I think the -2 occurred when the game was converted from FOF2004 to FOF2007. I never changed anything in that area, or at least I've never hit recommend. I've never noticed the -2 either, or I may have fixed it. Or I may have thought it was harmless or an actual number you can put into the box to reinforce that I don't want goal line situations called in aggressive pass coverages, know what I mean? But my point is, the -2 could have been there all year.

[yabanci]

Originally Posted by Kozure

I fixed the -2, and I can no longer duplicate it either. Believe me, though, it was there.

I think the -2 occurred when the game was converted from FOF2004 to FOF2007. I never changed anything in that area, or at least I've never hit recommend. I've never noticed the -2 either, or I may have fixed it. Or I may have thought it was harmless or an actual number you can put into the box to reinforce that I don't want goal line situations called in aggressive pass coverages, know what I mean? But my point is, the -2 could have been there all year.

But right after the Indianapolis game, you posted at eNFL, "Now, the odd thing I see in my gameplan under "Defensive Personnel Choices" is under "Goal line defense," for some reason "-2" is entered under Agg. Pass (for between Opp. 1 and my 20 yard line)."

So all you have to do is load the week 2 file (Indianapolis) and you will see the exact same thing you saw and reported on after the game. PM me with your email if you need the week 2 file and I can send it to you.

Not trying to doubt you, but if there really was a -2, then that's tangible evidence of a clear bug that can be sent to Jim to assist him in resolving it. If nobody can duplicate it and you can't produce a screenshot of it, then it's much harder to confirm that particular problem.

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by yabanci

But right after the Indianapolis game, you posted at eNFL, "Now, the odd thing I see in my gameplan under "Defensive Personnel Choices" is under "Goal line defense," for some reason "-2" is entered under Agg. Pass (for between Opp. 1 and my 20 yard line)."

So all you have to do is load the week 2 file (Indianapolis) and you will see the exact same thing you saw and reported on after the game. PM me with your email if you need the week 2 file and I can send it to you.

Not trying to doubt you, but if there really was a -2, then that's tangible evidence of a clear bug that can be sent to Jim to assist him in resolving it. If nobody can duplicate it and you can't produce a screenshot of it, then it's much harder to confirm that particular problem.

I can duplicate it. If you add to the nickel number so that nickel plus dime equal greater than 100, and then click in the dime box, it will put a negative number in the goal-line box. So for instance, if nickel is 84 and dime is 16, I can move nickel up to 90 and goal-line will move to -6.

It only works by changing the nickel number, though. If you try to do it by adding to the dime number or if you click in the goal-line box at any point it seems to correct itself properly.

[timmynausea]

Here's a screen shot:


After messing it with it some more, it also seems to work properly if you try 100 or greater in the nickel box.

[Kozure]

Originally Posted by yabanci

But right after the Indianapolis game, you posted at eNFL, "Now, the odd thing I see in my gameplan under "Defensive Personnel Choices" is under "Goal line defense," for some reason "-2" is entered under Agg. Pass (for between Opp. 1 and my 20 yard line)."

So all you have to do is load the week 2 file (Indianapolis) and you will see the exact same thing you saw and reported on after the game. PM me with your email if you need the week 2 file and I can send it to you.

Not trying to doubt you, but if there really was a -2, then that's tangible evidence of a clear bug that can be sent to Jim to assist him in resolving it. If nobody can duplicate it and you can't produce a screenshot of it, then it's much harder to confirm that particular problem.

Timmy posted a screen shot. My gameplan wasn't as messed up as his. But if you want to see the screen shot, send me the week 2 league file. I don't have it anymore.

Thanks bud.

[Kozure]

Originally Posted by timmynausea

I can duplicate it. If you add to the nickel number so that nickel plus dime equal greater than 100, and then click in the dime box, it will put a negative number in the goal-line box. So for instance, if nickel is 84 and dime is 16, I can move nickel up to 90 and goal-line will move to -6.

It only works by changing the nickel number, though. If you try to do it by adding to the dime number or if you click in the goal-line box at any point it seems to correct itself properly.

Good work Timmy. Now we know how it's done.

[yabanci]

good find Timmy. However, I think this negative number is a cosmetic bug and unrelated to the "goal-line personnel in extreme pass situation" problem that we've been seeing.

I say this for two reasons:

First, I know that in my example, my gameplan didn't have negative numbers (another poster confirmed the same). Kozure reported that he did have a negative number when he saw the problem. That means the problem is occurring regardless of whether there is a negative number in one of the personnel boxes.

Second, I ran a test by simming two seasons with a gameplan using negative numbers in all the goal-line boxes. I checked all the game logs and goal-line personnel was never used by my team. That led me to believe that even though there's a negative number in the box, the game is treating it as a simple "0". I didn't see any other wackiness in the results, but I really wasn't looking at anything other than goal-line personnel usage.

[mstjern]

I'm curious what the same test would be if you had goal-line set to "normal" percentages and 2-deep bump-and-run to zero. I too believe it's unrelated, I didn't have negative numbers in my gameplan either when I ran my tests.

[bmerryman]

Goal line personnel issue occurs at all times during the game, not just at the end of the half/game. On a previuos opening drive, my team shifted to goal line personnel on 3 of the first 11 plays when they should've stayed in base 4-3 or nickel.