NBA Lottery....tonight

[stevew]

8pm, before the Spurs/Jazz game. Finally the reckoning day for all the tanking that went on this season. Obviously picks 1/2 are Oden/Durant. Then it gets a bit fuzzy based on need. One thing to watch is the Hawks, their pick goes to the Suns if it isn't in one of the top 3 selections. The Hawks will be ecstatic if they aren't called at selections 6, 5 or 4. The Pacers can only keep their pick if it is among the top 3 selections, but I'm guessing they have in the neighborhood of a 3% chance of that happening.

Going into it, most odds to least odds. For those keeping track at home, as soon as a team is not called at or worse than it's proper inverse order spot, they have moved into the top 3. Each team can drop a maximum of 3 selections. The only way to move up in the draft order is to make the top 3, otherwise your spot becomes worse.

Team Combos 1st Pick 2nd 3rd 
1 Memphis 250 25.0% 21.5% 17.8%
2 Boston 199 19.9% 18.8% 17.1%
3 Milwaukee 156 15.6% 15.7% 15.6%
4 Atlanta(to PHX if not 1,2,3) 119 11.9% 12.6% 13.3%
5 Seattle 88 8.8% 9.7% 10.7%
6 Portland 53 5.3% 6.0% 7.0%
7 Minnesota 53 5.3% 6.0% 7.0% 
8 Charlotte 19 1.9% 2.2% 2.7% 
9 New York(to Chicago) 19 1.9% 2.2% 2.7% 
10 Sacramento 18 1.8% 2.1% 2.5%
11 Indiana(to ATL if not 1,2,3) 8 0.8% 0.9% 1.2%
12 Philadelphia 7 0.7% 0.8% 1.0%
13 New Orleans 6 0.6% 0.7% 0.9% 
14 LA Clippers 5 0.5% 0.6% 0.7%

[stevew]

http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/new/s...tery_odds40802


2007 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
May 18th, 2007 NBA Draft
By Shawn Siegel
The 2007 NBA Draft Lottery will be held Tuesday night, May 22nd. Despite all the hype about the Grizzlies and Celtics dividing up Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, there's actually a substantial chance both teams will most out on those guys. Included in the top chart is each team's chance of getting the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick. These are official numbers supplied by NBA.com.
Memphis obviously has the best chance at #1 with 25% odds. Notice however, that they have less than a 50% chance combined of getting the Top 2 picks. There's actually a better chance (53.5%) that they will get the 3rd pick or below. The same goes for the Celtics who have a 61.3% chance of getting the 3rd pick or below. In fact, the most likely pick that both the Grizzlies and Celtics will get is the 4th pick. Memphis has a 36% chance of getting the 4th pick, while Boston has a 32% chance.

Both Milwaukee and Atlanta, who have the 3rd best odds, are actually most likely to end up with the 5th pick. Milwaukee has a 23% chance of getting this pick, while Atlanta has 35%.

[QuikSand]

Math skills not his strong suit. Hope he's good with basketball.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Math skills not his strong suit. Hope he's good with basketball.

I don't follow? I believe that's the commonly accepted math on the lotto breakdown? There are 1000 "balls" in the lottery. Pick #1 is selected first IIRC.

[QuikSand]

It just felt like regurgitation to me. I don't know of there are eny actual errors in there, it just felt like typing without understanding. Sorry if I implied that he was wrong with the numbers he clearly just copied from the press release.

My point is that if this is his best "insight" with regards to math, I hope he's more insightful with regards to actual basketball.

[bulletsponge]

8pm, before the Spurs/Jazz game. Finally the reckoning day for all the tanking that went on this season

quoted for thruth

[MylesKnight]

How about those Knicks? Watch Isiah's Boys get one of the top two picks and see the agony of NYK fans as this pick gets shipped to Chicago. Unintentional Comedy at it's finest folks.

But hey, they did get Randolph Morris though. There's your consolation prize I suppose.

Personally, I'd like to see Kevin Garnett get some help with the T'Pups. Hopefully Oden or Durant heads up that way... That, or the Clippers getting up to #1 or #2, just to p___ off Lakertown.

[TroyF]

So if Indiana gets into the top 3 and the Hawks are out of the top 3, they are pretty much screwed.

The Nuggets may not be even in the realm of a championship team yet, but I'm so glad we aren't back here. Over a decade in the lottery and not one time did they ever get the pick or above the pick they were supposed to. How horrific.

Please, keep the top three picks out East. That conference is a joke. The West has to much talent already.

[Huckleberry]

If it doesn't end up:

1. Milwaukee
2. Portland
3. Memphis

Then it was rigged.

[JPhillips]

I'll go out on a limb and guarantee the Celtics pick no better than third. Call it the Pitino curse.

[miami_fan]

Well this is the quintessential NBA conspiracy event. Let’s take a look at some of the ones I have read or heard so far.

1.Boston will win the lottery because the NBA wants to have the Celtics back at the top of the East.

2.New York will win the lottery so the Bulls can take that pick, draft Oden and recreate the Bulls dynasty of the past.

3.Seattle will win the lottery to pick Oden, so the NBA can try to convince the city/state to give them a new arena.

4.Charlotte will win because David Stern wants the Bobcats to succeed so the league can trumpet the success of the franchise that is owned by a black man.

5.Minnesota will win because the league wants KG to finally get a chance to compete after indirectly screwing him over in the Joe Smith fiasco.

6.New Orleans will win the lottery to ensure sellouts in the team’s first full season in the Big Easy after Katrina.

7.The Kings will win to ensure they have a rising star in tow when they make their move to Las Vegas.


Any more?

[Pumpy Tudors]

Memphis will win the lottery because... because... because I'm the only Grizzlies fan in the universe?

[rkmsuf]

Not long now before the C's are irrelevant for another 10 years. If they don't get #1 cross them off until 2015.

[stevew]

If the Hawks could somehow get Oden, and then also put together a trade for Conley Jr.....that would be the type of way an elite team could be built.

[albionmoonlight]

They should go back to the "every team out of the playoffs has an equal chance at the top three picks" lottery.

The obvious tanking this season was a disgrace.

And I agree with Bill Simmons--is it the worst thing in the world if a team that is on the cusp of the playoffs gets a player that can make them into an elite team? Isn't that more entertaining than watching the best players go to the worst teams and either have their spirts broken by losing or end up toiling for four years before they bolt for New York or LA or Boston or Chicago?

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

They should go back to the "every team out of the playoffs has an equal chance at the top three picks" lottery.

The obvious tanking this season was a disgrace.

And I agree with Bill Simmons--is it the worst thing in the world if a team that is on the cusp of the playoffs gets a player that can make them into an elite team? Isn't that more entertaining than watching the best players go to the worst teams and either have their spirts broken by losing or end up toiling for four years before they bolt for New York or LA or Boston or Chicago?

There's always been tanking. This notion that it's suddenly a problem is a bit odd to me. This year wasn't much different than any year where an "elite" player is entering the league. Just the nature of the game.

Where are all these players bolting for Boston?!!?!! Sign some up dammit!

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

There's always been tanking. This notion that it's suddenly a problem is a bit odd to me. This year wasn't much different than any year where an "elite" player is entering the league. Just the nature of the game.

Where are all these players bolting for Boston?!!?!! Sign some up dammit!

If Boston had even an average front office, the team would be just fine. I think that the passionate fans and the history would be enough to keep the team above water.

Gross mismanagement, however, can sink any team. As you know.

And, I am not the world's biggest NBA watcher by any stretch, but the media certainly talked about taking a lot more this season. There were not articles written about how tanking might be happening, but articles written that just assumed that it was and went from there.

But, again, I don't really know anything because I get most of what I know secondhand from the media.

[rkmsuf]

It was a nice issue to write about to generate some attention but to me was similar to most years. And really who cares if the worst 5 or 6 teams are losing. Do you really think that the teams out of it in any given year are going all out over those last 10 games?

My only beef with the NBA is that the cycle of going to the bottom and back to the top is way too long given perfect management. Throw in some clunker moves and you have 20 years of meh. Boston has become irrelevant. Some of it is poor moves but much is the nature of basketball and one guy meaning everything. Also, could the rules be any more restrictive in terms of trading? Something is out of whack when a guy with one year left on a deal and not playing is a highly sought after asset.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

Not long now before the C's are irrelevant for another 10 years. If they don't get #1 cross them off until 2015.

QFT

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by stevew

For those keeping track at home, as soon as a team is not called at or worse than it's proper inverse order spot, they have moved into the top 3.

Oh neat, I didn't know that.

So if they announce the tenth pick and Sacramento hasn't been called yet, they're definitely in the top three?

P.S. Are they still doing the show where each team sends one guy to sit there awkwardly and we get to watch them react when they're team is picked? That is gold, I love that part.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Oh neat, I didn't know that.

So if they announce the tenth pick and Sacramento hasn't been called yet, they're definitely in the top three?

P.S. Are they still doing the show where each team sends one guy to sit there awkwardly and we get to watch them react when they're team is picked? That is gold, I love that part.

Yes, that is correct.

For example, if the order is

14. Clippers
13. New Orleans
12. Philly
11. Indiana(to ATL)
10. New York(to Chicago)

That means that the SAC front office is jumping for joy, since they have one of the top 3 "lotteried" selections.

Yeah, each team has one representitive at the draft.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by TroyF

So if Indiana gets into the top 3 and the Hawks are out of the top 3, they are pretty much screwed.

I can't remember much about how to do permutations or statistics anymore, but the hawks have about a 66% chance of ending up 4th or worse, and the Pacers have a 97% chance of that happening. So, I think that the odds of that happening would have to be pretty small, anyways. It'd be funny as hell, however.

[Young Drachma]

Most exciting thing about the NBA season, really. lol

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by stevew

If the Hawks could somehow get Oden, and then also put together a trade for Conley Jr.....that would be the type of way an elite team could be built.

Maybe if they thought about drafting a point guard that would help too.

[wbatl1]

As an Hawks fan, this lottery could be spectacular or it could be miserable. We could end up with two lottery picks, or none (although thats not likely). Then again, Billy Knight will probably draft another 6'9'' swingman to go with our 6 others....

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

P.S. Are they still doing the show where each team sends one guy to sit there awkwardly and we get to watch them react when they're team is picked? That is gold, I love that part.

I'm a Knicks fan...but can you imagine how amazing it would be for Isiah Thomas to be sitting there and having to force a "Now I'm really fucked" smile after they win the lottery?

Haven't read it anywhere yet, but I'm assuming he's going to send someone in his place just so he doesn't have to be subjected to that. Maybe he'll hire Don Chaney for the night.

[Sublime 2]

Need some Irish Luck from Tommy Heinsohn tonight!!

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Logan

I'm a Knicks fan...but can you imagine how amazing it would be for Isiah Thomas to be sitting there and having to force a "Now I'm really fucked" smile after they win the lottery?

Haven't read it anywhere yet, but I'm assuming he's going to send someone in his place just so he doesn't have to be subjected to that. Maybe he'll hire Don Chaney for the night.

Remember Jerry West's face when he was thisclose to getting the LeBron pick, and instead he had to sit there knowing that the Pistons were getting his selection. For a trade made like 7 years prior, under a different regime. A trade for Otis F'n Thorpe.

[Maple Leafs]

I still remember watching the lottery from the Lebron draft. I don't really follow the NBA but I remember everyone agreeing that Lebron was a franchise player, and that Darko and Carmello were also studs, then there was a huge drop at #4.

So the Raptor, who finished third last, of course get the #4 pick. They had sent Vince Carter as their representative and the look on his face was just classic. This half-hearted (is there any other kind from him?) smile with a thinly-disguised "We're are so fucked" look.

Damn I wish they'd gotten Darko. Wonder whatever happened to that kid we drafted instead?

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

Not long now before the C's are irrelevant for another 10 years. If they don't get #1 cross them off until 2015.

I blame the Fleet Center

[Anthony]

don't you wish the Draft Lottery and the actual draft could be held on the same nite? that'd be awesome.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Hell Atlantic

don't you wish the Draft Lottery and the actual draft could be held on the same nite? that'd be awesome.

Yeah, it would be cool to watch a bunch of heavyset executives and scouts start scampering around once they find out what pick they have. Sign me up.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by Logan

Yeah, it would be cool to watch a bunch of heavyset executives and scouts start scampering around once they find out what pick they have. Sign me up.

especially if you're Isaiah Thomas and you just lost out on a good pick, tell me that doesn't just poo poo on your whole day. wouldn't that make the odds of making horrible draft decisions even more likely having just been screwed at the Lottery? imagine GM's being fired from the time the Lottery is over to when the actual Draft starts like 30 minutes later. that'd be awesome. even the chaos of teams scurrying to make trades in the time between the lottery and the draft. that'd be fun to watch.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Hell Atlantic

don't you wish the Draft Lottery and the actual draft could be held on the same nite? that'd be awesome.

And have every team eligible for the loterry - you have an equal chance of picking 1 - 29 (or whatever). Not only would I watch that, I'd buy 10 products of every commerical advertisor for the event.

[Logan]

Stop getting me excited for something that will never happen.

[molson]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

They should go back to the "every team out of the playoffs has an equal chance at the top three picks" lottery.

The obvious tanking this season was a disgrace.

And I agree with Bill Simmons--is it the worst thing in the world if a team that is on the cusp of the playoffs gets a player that can make them into an elite team? Isn't that more entertaining than watching the best players go to the worst teams and either have their spirts broken by losing or end up toiling for four years before they bolt for New York or LA or Boston or Chicago?

Agreed - the lottery's original purpose was to avoid tanking. So the heavy weighting (which encourages tanking) is just silly and pointless.

A horrible team can become a bad team (just missing the playoffs) without the aid of the #1 overall pick.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by molson

And have every team eligible for the loterry - you have an equal chance of picking 1 - 29 (or whatever). Not only would I watch that, I'd buy 10 products of every commerical advertisor for the event.

they also should have to pick immediately. the first envelope is revealed and that team picks #1. They have 3 minutes to make a pick. Then there is a minute interval to allow any trading amongst the remaining teams. You want to roll the dice and get two chances to be the next pick then give up a player! Then the next envelope is drawn. Now that's entertainment.

[General Mike]

Is it wrong to want the Knicks to win the draft lottery?

[albionmoonlight]

These are awesome ideas. Also, all of the executives should be right next to the green room with all the players (and vice versa) so they can listen in on each other.

[albionmoonlight]

And every player, every executive, and every player's baby momma(s) should be miked.

If all of this came true, they could put the lottery/draft on Pay Per View and people would get it.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Well this is the quintessential NBA conspiracy event. Let’s take a look at some of the ones I have read or heard so far.

1.Boston will win the lottery because the NBA wants to have the Celtics back at the top of the East.

2.New York will win the lottery so the Bulls can take that pick, draft Oden and recreate the Bulls dynasty of the past.

3.Seattle will win the lottery to pick Oden, so the NBA can try to convince the city/state to give them a new arena.

4.Charlotte will win because David Stern wants the Bobcats to succeed so the league can trumpet the success of the franchise that is owned by a black man.

5.Minnesota will win because the league wants KG to finally get a chance to compete after indirectly screwing him over in the Joe Smith fiasco.

6.New Orleans will win the lottery to ensure sellouts in the team’s first full season in the Big Easy after Katrina.

7.The Kings will win to ensure they have a rising star in tow when they make their move to Las Vegas.


Any more?

Simmons went through each team's rigging potential:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2...2&sportCat=nba

[st.cronin]

Stern made some comments when Boston was openly tanking that he was considering taking pingpong balls away from teams that were tanking. So, I'd be pretty surprised if Boston (or Milwaukee) finished in the top 3.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by General Mike

Is it wrong to want the Knicks to win the draft lottery?

Not. At. All.

[Maple Leafs]

If Boston gets the #3 pick, I will go to Simmon's page on ESPN tomorrow morning and hit refresh every five seconds until his column and/or obituary appears.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

If Boston gets the #3 pick, I will go to Simmon's page on ESPN tomorrow morning and hit refresh every five seconds until his column and/or obituary appears.

I emailed him a few months back and said that he has to set up a camcorder to watch him watch the draft and put it on Youtube when it was over.

His response was simple: "too dangerous."

[Ryche]

We know the Twolves won't win, they have never moved up in the lottery and the one time they got in the top three they ended up with Laettner after O'Neal and Mourning went 1-2.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

If Boston gets the #3 pick, I will go to Simmon's page on ESPN tomorrow morning and hit refresh every five seconds until his column and/or obituary appears.

That would be great comedy. As would watching David Stern's face if the Knicks end up with the top pick - knowing full well they have to give it to Chicago.

[Maple Leafs]

Wait... I'm not an NBA fan, but I thought traded draft picks were always protected in case they were top-three, etc. Are you telling me Isiah's pick isn't protected at all?

[Brian Swartz]

Most of the time they are ... but not in this case. There is no protection on the Knicks-Bulls trade.

[Ksyrup]

There is no protecting the Knicks from Isaiah.