Luck in Football

[CraigSca]

I'm a big fan of "The Book" and the guys who put it together (tangotiger, MGL, Dolphin). For those who don't know, "The Book" is a very detailed, sabermetric view of baseball and (with full math) explain a lot about the game. It's kind of like Bill James, but with a double-shot of mathematics.

Anyway, I'm a big fan of tangotiger's blog (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/), and was surprised to find I missed this entry, because this stuff fascinates me. In this entry (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde...gues/#comments), Tango explains the role of luck in the major sports, and from this, they determine how long the sports schedule should be in order to weed out the chaff from the truly deserving. Just to summarize, here's the role of luck, in order of major sport effected on a per-game basis:

1) Baseball
2) Hockey
3) Football
4) Basketball

Interestingly, here are the equivalent number of games played per sport to get a reasonable differentiation between teams (r = .5):

MLB Baseball: 69
NHL Hockey: 36
NBA Basketball: 14
NFL Football: 12

In summary, luck plays a huge role in football standings and therefore needs the number of playoff teams it currently allows, just in case a team worthy has been knocked down a few pegs due to luck. The other thing to notice is, from a pure talent differentiation standpoint, the NBA is completely out of whack from a length of season standpoint, as well as number of playoff teams.

Anyway, I thought you'd all find this interesting, especially when it comes to FOF MP leagues and "why isn't my team doing better?!" You might have to take luck into account .

[MIJB#19]

Interesting stuff.
Fwiw, this thread may have been a good fit in the general discussion forum.

[Hammer]

The American playoff system is wide open for luck to deal its hand. The best team in the league just need 1 bad game, or even a few bad plays and they are robbed. Fine for the spectator, but not a fair system in my view.

A league basis, like the Premiership, is a far better indicator of who the best team is over a certain time frame.

Coming in with the English frame of mind, I take a whole lot of satisfaction from gaining home field advantage. I almost tend to switch of emotionally in the playoffs as I feel its kind of a dice roll. Anyone can win or lose 1 game.