College Football Betting Advice Thread

[st.cronin]

I'm leaving tomorrow for a weekend in Vegas. Still not sure about the Martinelli blackjack system, but I'm planning on playing some college football. I'm looking at these lines:

South Florida +7 (home against W. Virginia)
Indiana +11 (@ Iowa)
Penn State -3 (@ Illinois)
California +5 1/2 (@ Oregon)
Georgia Tech +3 (home against Clemson)
New Mexico +5 1/2 (home against BYU)

I actually like Cal to win that game, so I'm not sure how I'm going to bet that. I tend to shy away from games with big spreads, since Purdue could totally pwn the Irish and win something like 30-10.

Anyway, just looking for thoughts from the peanut gallery, and if anybody has any other good plays for the weekend.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

California +5 1/2 (@ Oregon)

I actually like Cal to win that game, so I'm not sure how I'm going to bet that. I tend to shy away from games with big spreads, since Purdue could totally pwn the Irish and win something like 30-10.

If Cal's getting 5.5 points and you think they're going to win outright, I think you know exactly how you're going to bet it.

[stevew]

If cal loses this week, you can just bet twice as much on them to win next week.

[Atocep]

I'm a WVU fan and I don't know what to think of the South Florida game. South Florida has a win over what looks to be a pretty bad Auburn team along with easy wins over Elon and UNC.

My gut tells me that WVU will roll fairly easily, especially now that they're opening up the passing game quite a bit more (for them) and Pat White has looked fantastic in doing so. The fact that this is a road game really doesn't scare me. WVU has already played 2 road games and one was in front of a tough Maryland crowd (they are starting to really dislike WVU). However, last year's game is still stuck in my head which is why I don't know what to think.

As a bettor, I'd stay as far away from a game like this as I could. But thats me.

[Passacaglia]

Oregon's satdium is a tough place to play in.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Oregon's satdium is a tough place to play in.

Especially when the mascot is running around kicking people's asses.

[Celeval]

I've got no idea what to expect from GT this week. Clemson has ripped Tenuta's defense to shreds before, but at the same time, this game has rarely been more than a 3-point game in the last decade.

[CraigSca]

Try to bet on one uniform color and stay on that color. This works every time. However, if it doesn't, stop betting.

[lynchjm24]

Georgia Tech has one win against a 1A and it's against Notre Dame. 3 points isn't nearly enough there.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by Atocep

My gut tells me that WVU will roll fairly easily

Don't go with this guy's gut.

[lynchjm24]

Arizona State -14

[Karlifornia]

Lol....

Who had "20% Martingale system jokes in the first 10 posts of this thread"? That's the big winner.

[sooner333]

Last week Notre Dame crept down as gametime got near just because of public money on the Domers. I'd wait until Saturday to make the Purdue bet.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Celeval

I've got no idea what to expect from GT this week. Clemson has ripped Tenuta's defense to shreds before, but at the same time, this game has rarely been more than a 3-point game in the last decade.

With the most recent game being the notable exception of course.

I wouldn't touch this series.

[Celeval]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

With the most recent game being the notable exception of course.

I wouldn't touch this series.

Probably best. I wouldn't feel safe getting fourteen points (really, for either team).

[Dr. Sak]

Stay away from Penn State and their Pee Wee Football offense. Last year Illinois had 2 late turnovers and that's how PSU won. This is going to be a close game.

[Butter]

Iowa can't score, so I think the Indiana bet is fairly safe.

I would actually be inclined to bet against Penn State, just because Illinois is underrated and PSU is overrated, so I actually tend to think that Illinois has a better than average chance of winning that game... I don't know if I would even consider that an upset.

[Swaggs]

I don't want to pull a jbmagic-like jinx on my team, but I think WVU covers against USF.

[CraigSca]

WVU looking good in early season?

[astrosfan64]

Penn State looks like the best bet out of that group of games.

I wouldn't touch the South Florida game, but if I did I would take South Florida and the points. All they've done is win and they have a real nice program going down there.

I don't like any of the rest of the games you have listed.

[I. J. Reilly]

I've really only been following the Pac-Ten, so I don't know if it's the best bet there, but I would take Cal. Autzen is loud, but Cal has been there plenty of times before so it shouldn't be a problem for them. There is some real offense in this game, classic west coast shoot out, so take a look at the over too.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

I wouldn't touch this series.

+1

I might, however, be tempted to take the Over in the Tennessee-Open matchup. (I couldn't find the "crying" emoticon but you can pretend it's here)

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by Atocep

My gut tells me that WVU will roll fairly easily, The fact that this is a road game really doesn't scare me.

Like I said, avoid this guys gut.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I don't want to pull a jbmagic-like jinx on my team, but I think WVU covers against USF.

how your ai?

I was watching the game, was that the backup QB or something, he made some throws that reminded me of Kordell.

[BYU 14]

Here is a system that has worked very well for me. Pass efficiency differential.
Example
Team A on offense has a PE of 142 and on Defense it is 138
Team B is 132 on Offense and 104 on Defense.

The PED is +46 for Team A
Team A OPE - Team B DPE = +38 for Team A
Team B OPE - Team A DPE = + 6 for Team A
Total PE Diff is +46 for Team A

According to data compiled over the last 5 years Team A should win 79.6% of the time by an average margin of 13.1 points. If you find a matchup where Team A has this advantage and the line favors them by 4, it's a solid bet. If Team B is a 22 point dog, that is the bet you make. The downside of the system is you have to wait until things play out a bit. I never bet before week 6 of the Season, so that the numbers are more reflective of what's happening. It's a simple system, which I hope I haven't made too confusing. My winning percentage since I started using this is 74%, so I make Money. It's easy to get the numbers, in fact a lot of Casinos in Vegas have it on their cards.

PED Diff        W       L       Win%    Avg Margin of victory 
125 to 150        3       0     100.0%    47.3 
100 to 125       36       0     100.0%    38.6 
75 to 100       165       4     97.6%     30.9 
50 to 75        477      43     91.7%     21.3 
25 to 50        829     213     79.6%     13.1 
0 to 25         934     589     61.3%      4.3 

The trick is to find Point spreads less than the AMOV. I would be interested in others testing this and sharing their results.

[Desnudo]

Forget college football. I have a system to make you millions simply by placing tiny little ads in hundreds of newspapers. PM if interested.

[Passacaglia]

Looks like cronin should have done pretty well.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by lynchjm24

Arizona State -14

I really need to take my own advice. I didn't have this.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Iowa can't score, so I think the Indiana bet is fairly safe.

I would actually be inclined to bet against Penn State, just because Illinois is underrated and PSU is overrated, so I actually tend to think that Illinois has a better than average chance of winning that game... I don't know if I would even consider that an upset.

Double boo-ya.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Looks like cronin should have done pretty well.

My baby ate a 75 dollar lobster Saturday night.