Watching Another Interesting Development Case (Johnny Helmic)

[Ben E Lou]

POST-CAMP






CURRENT (2 weeks of first regular season complete)

[Ben E Lou]

PRECAMP OBSERVATIONS

• 58% developed, yet 55/63
• E positional experience seemed to match up with % developed
• Very low run blocking bar for a guy with those combines

POSTCAMP OBSERVATIONS

• -1, usually a sign of dropping, but not always
• Run blocking bar all red...was thinking then it almost had to be masked
• Gained a level of positional experience in camp

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS

• RR has already filled out 15 points in just 4 preseason and 2 regular season games.
• Has gained another level of positional experience in camp.
• 65/65, yet with green showing in several categories, and several all red bars still moving upward.

We do have a mentor TE.

I'm mainly posting this to have an easy record of where he was and where he's headed. I'm very curious about him.

[zbuckley]

How do I get the letter grade for development status?

[Ben E Lou]

Use the resource patcher in the StelmackSoft Utility Suite.

[zbuckley]

thanks Skydog

[Eaglesfan27]

This thread is painful to read.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

This thread is painful to read.

FWIW, I had Helmic as the 3rd best TE. If I'd picked where you did, I doubt I would have gotten him.

[MIJB#19]

I still think that he'll be short on run blocking. As you can see, he's still gaining there, but not as much as in most other skills. I'm expecting a finish near 40, maybe just short of 50, but more likely around 38-42.

[Raiders Army]

What happened to Dylan King?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

CURRENT (2 weeks of first regular season complete)

Week 3 complete.

He gains two more overall points, to 67/67. Positional Experience goes to "B" this week. GD and RR both go to 91, RB to 28. Green fills out 2 to 3 points in those five categories, with no change to red.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

• -1, usually a sign of dropping, but not always

I seem to be seeing a lot of that since the last update: players dropping 1-3 points in camp, and being creepers. Never more than 3 points though.

My 1st round LB last season (in Shiba) went from 45/69->48/66, and is now sitting at 69/69 with a 9 (B?) in position experience.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Synovia

I seem to be seeing a lot of that since the last update: players dropping 1-3 points in camp, and being creepers. Never more than 3 points though.

My 1st round LB last season (in Shiba) went from 45/69->48/66, and is now sitting at 69/69 with a 9 (B?) in position experience.

Agreed. As far as I could tell, the points of no return up to 6.1 were +1/-2, but they seem to have widened a bit now.

[zbuckley]

Originally Posted by Synovia

I seem to be seeing a lot of that since the last update: players dropping 1-3 points in camp, and being creepers. Never more than 3 points though.

My 1st round LB last season (in Shiba) went from 45/69->48/66, and is now sitting at 69/69 with a 9 (B?) in position experience.

Over in the USFL 2 years ago I had a rookie RB pre camp 63/63 and post 61/61. He finished at 79/79

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Week 3 complete.

He gains two more overall points, to 67/67. Positional Experience goes to "B" this week. GD and RR both go to 91, RB to 28. Green fills out 2 to 3 points in those five categories, with no change to red.

No change from this in Week 4.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Week 3 complete.

He gains two more overall points, to 67/67. Positional Experience goes to "B" this week. GD and RR both go to 91, RB to 28. Green fills out 2 to 3 points in those five categories, with no change to red.

Week 4. no change.

Weed 5 complete: two more overall to 69/69, exp still holding at B. GD to 92, RR to 94, RB to 28. AD all red at 86/86. Third down catching goes up a point to 67. Special teams +2 to 97.

[zbuckley]

Will players continue to "creep" after their position experience is maxed out?

[Ben E Lou]

Yes.

[Ben E Lou]

Especially QBs.

[Leonidas]

Not every player creeps, it's pretty random. I had a DT once who was 65/81 when I drafted him, then 68/75 after camp and he started creeping from there until he maxed out at 83/83. Most guys seem to "creep" the wrong way though.

[zbuckley]

Originally Posted by Leonidas

Not every player creeps, it's pretty random. I had a DT once who was 65/81 when I drafted him, then 68/75 after camp and he started creeping from there until he maxed out at 83/83. Most guys seem to "creep" the wrong way though.

I should have given an example but I'm pretty sure SD knew what I was asking. Lets say a rookie WR started at 15/21 in his 3rd year is 45/45 but his position experience is maxed out. Is it possible for him to continue "creeeping"? sounds like it is. I haven't seen an example of it yet but i'll be watching more closely.

[Ben E Lou]

Yes, zbuckley. It happens (in small numbers) a decent amout of the time with all positions. For QBs, it's usually significant. Let me check something...

[Ben E Lou]

Yup, Aaron Sweazy, the QB in my dynasty thread, was 16/43-->57/57 with full positional experience, but he continue to creep as high as 76/76.

[zbuckley]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Yup, Aaron Sweazy, the QB in my dynasty thread, was 16/43-->57/57 with full positional experience, but he continue to creep as high as 76/76.

He's the guy you couldn't find the combine #'s for right?

[Ben E Lou]

If I had them, I certainly wouldn't tell y'all!!!



But no, I don't have them.

[Ben E Lou]

...Week 4. no change.

Week 5 complete: two more overall to 69/69, exp still holding at B. GD to 92, RR to 94, RB to 28. AD all red at 86/86. Third down catching goes up a point to 67. Special teams +2 to 97....

Week 6 complete: 70/70 overall. (+12/+8 since postcamp)

RunBlk: 29 (+7)
PsBlk: 77/81 (+19/0)
BlkStr: 57 (NC)
AvDrps: 88 (+21/+2)
GtDnfd: 92 (+6)
RtRn: 97 (+24/+8)
3dCtc: 68 (+5)
BgPly: 65 (NC)
Courage: 70/71 (+4/0)
Adjust: 68/72 (+16/0)
Endurance: 64/71 (+4/0)
Special Teams: 98 (+7)
Long Snapping: 47 (NC)

[Synovia]

Hey Sky, you've done a couple of threads with creeping WE/TE/RBs, etc. Have you noticed any specific bars that seem to be prone to heavy unmasking?

It seems like most of the cases I've seen, Route Running gets some heavy changes.

[Ben E Lou]

Well, Helmic is the first post-6.0e draftee for one of these threads. The other guys were picked before scout error was lowered, so it may be difficult to draw any conclusions at the moment.

[Ben E Lou]

...Week 4. no change.

Week 5 complete: two more overall to 69/69, exp still holding at B. GD to 92, RR to 94, RB to 28. AD all red at 86/86. Third down catching goes up a point to 67. Special teams +2 to 97....

Week 6 complete: 70/70 overall. (+12/+8 since postcamp)

RunBlk: 29 (+7)
PsBlk: 77/81 (+19/0)
BlkStr: 57 (NC)
AvDrps: 88 (+21/+2)
GtDnfd: 92 (+6)
RtRn: 97 (+24/+8)
3dCtc: 68 (+5)
BgPly: 65 (NC)
Courage: 70/71 (+4/0)
Adjust: 68/72 (+16/0)
Endurance: 64/71 (+4/0)
Special Teams: 98 (+7)
Long Snapping: 47 (NC)


Week 7 complete: 72/72 overall. (+14/+10 since postcamp)

RunBlk: 30 (+8)
PsBlk: 80/81 (+22/0)
BlkStr: 57 (NC)
AvDrps: 90 (+23/+4)
GtDnfd: 94 (+8)
RtRn: 100 (+???) (+27/+11)
3dCtc: 68 (+5)
BgPly: 65 (NC)
Courage: 72 (+6/+1)
Adjust: 70/72 (+18/0)
Endurance: 65/71 (+5/0)
Special Teams: 99 (+8)
Long Snapping: 47 (NC)

Positional Experience still at "B."

[Ben E Lou]

...Week 4. no change.

Week 5 complete: two more overall to 69/69, exp still holding at B. GD to 92, RR to 94, RB to 28. AD all red at 86/86. Third down catching goes up a point to 67. Special teams +2 to 97....

Week 6 complete: 70/70 overall. (+12/+8 since postcamp)

RunBlk: 29 (+7)
PsBlk: 77/81 (+19/0)
BlkStr: 57 (NC)
AvDrps: 88 (+21/+2)
GtDnfd: 92 (+6)
RtRn: 97 (+24/+8)
3dCtc: 68 (+5)
BgPly: 65 (NC)
Courage: 70/71 (+4/0)
Adjust: 68/72 (+16/0)
Endurance: 64/71 (+4/0)
Special Teams: 98 (+7)
Long Snapping: 47 (NC)


Week 7 complete: 72/72 overall. (+14/+10 since postcamp)

RunBlk: 30 (+8)
PsBlk: 80/81 (+22/0)
BlkStr: 57 (NC)
AvDrps: 90 (+23/+4)
GtDnfd: 94 (+8)
RtRn: 100 (+???) (+27/+11)
3dCtc: 68 (+5)
BgPly: 65 (NC)
Courage: 72 (+6/+1)
Adjust: 70/72 (+18/0)
Endurance: 65/71 (+5/0)
Special Teams: 99 (+8)
Long Snapping: 47 (NC)

Positional Experience still at "B."

I don't usually do week-to-week tracking, so I have no idea if this is odd, but it seems at least notworthy: his overall didn't change at all, but several of his individual numbers did.


Week 8 complete: 72/72 overall. NC this week.

RunBlk: 31(+1)
PsBlk: 81 (+1/0)
BlkStr: 57 (NC)
AvDrps: 93 (+3)
GtDnfd: 94 (NC)
RtRn: 100 (???)
3dCtc: 68 (NC)
BgPly: 65 (NC)
Courage: 72 (NC)
Adjust: 72 (+2/0)
Endurance: 65/71 (NC)
Special Teams: 99 (NC)
Long Snapping: 47 (NC)

Positional Experience still at "B."

[Ben E Lou]

So now here's a new twist (at least to me, I think). Helmic goes to "A" positional experience this week, but still has a bit of green in endurance. My best guess as to what's going on there is that positional experience is similar to coaching ratings. We're only seeing it change at certain increments, but it's changing under the hood at smaller ones.

[Ben E Lou]

...Week 4. no change.

Week 5 complete: two more overall to 69/69, exp still holding at B. GD to 92, RR to 94, RB to 28. AD all red at 86/86. Third down catching goes up a point to 67. Special teams +2 to 97....

Week 6 complete: 70/70 overall. (+12/+8 since postcamp)

RunBlk: 29 (+7)
PsBlk: 77/81 (+19/0)
BlkStr: 57 (NC)
AvDrps: 88 (+21/+2)
GtDnfd: 92 (+6)
RtRn: 97 (+24/+8)
3dCtc: 68 (+5)
BgPly: 65 (NC)
Courage: 70/71 (+4/0)
Adjust: 68/72 (+16/0)
Endurance: 64/71 (+4/0)
Special Teams: 98 (+7)
Long Snapping: 47 (NC)


Week 7 complete: 72/72 overall. (+14/+10 since postcamp)

RunBlk: 30 (+8)
PsBlk: 80/81 (+22/0)
BlkStr: 57 (NC)
AvDrps: 90 (+23/+4)
GtDnfd: 94 (+8)
RtRn: 100 (+???) (+27/+11)
3dCtc: 68 (+5)
BgPly: 65 (NC)
Courage: 72 (+6/+1)
Adjust: 70/72 (+18/0)
Endurance: 65/71 (+5/0)
Special Teams: 99 (+8)
Long Snapping: 47 (NC)

Positional Experience still at "B."

I don't usually do week-to-week tracking, so I have no idea if this is odd, but it seems at least notworthy: his overall didn't change at all, but several of his individual numbers did.


Week 8 complete: 72/72 overall. NC this week.

RunBlk: 31(+1)
PsBlk: 81 (+1/0)
BlkStr: 57 (NC)
AvDrps: 93 (+3)
GtDnfd: 94 (NC)
RtRn: 100 (???)
3dCtc: 68 (NC)
BgPly: 65 (NC)
Courage: 72 (NC)
Adjust: 72 (+2/0)
Endurance: 65/71 (NC)
Special Teams: 99 (NC)
Long Snapping: 47 (NC)

Positional Experience still at "B."



OK. So is he done now?



WEEK 10 complete: scouted 75/75 overall. +3 this week, +17/+13 overall

(Changes in scouted ratings listed are overall since post-camp stage.)

RunBlk: 33 (+11)
PsBlk: 87 (+29/+6)
BlkStr: 57 (NC)
AvDrps: 99 (+32/+13)
GtDnfd: 96 (+10)
RtRn: 100 (+27/+12)
3dCtc: 70 (+7)
BgPly: 65 (NC)
Courage: 73 (+7/+2)
Adjust: 77 ( +25/+5. The +5 was after he got to red experience.)
Endurance: 67 (+7/-4)
Special Teams: 100 (+9)
Long Snapping: 47 (NC)

[Ben E Lou]

Good thing I didn't know about his 21 popularity, huh???

[Subby]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Good thing I didn't know about his 21 popularity, huh???

Hope people won't miss this comment.

[Matthean]

Since I have yet to do a draft, where was he taken in the draft and where would be expected to be taken in a SP draft?

[Celeval]

He was 1.29 in this particular MP league. SP leagues... all over the place.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Subby

Hope people won't miss this comment.

If I am reading this right, you think people have a concern with low popularity being a tell for bad players? Has that ever been misconstrued? From my understanding, having a low pop score means nothing, but having a high pop score tells you everything you need to know.

[drakeborn]

Originally Posted by Dutch

If I am reading this right, you think people have a concern with low popularity being a tell for bad players? Has that ever been misconstrued?

Yes, it was. Ben was using sarcasm here to make a comment on the several people who attempted to counter the high pop tell theory by giving examples of successful low pop players.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by drakeborn

Yes, it was. Ben was using sarcasm here to make a comment on the several people who attempted to counter the high pop tell theory by giving examples of successful low pop players.

Ok, I see. 60% of the time I detect sarcasm all the time.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Celeval

He was 1.29 in this particular MP league. SP leagues... all over the place.

When I came back to the thread, I remembered the draft position was listed in there as well. Even for a MP league, he was late first round. Good to know.

Originally Posted by Dutch

If I am reading this right, you think people have a concern with low popularity being a tell for bad players? Has that ever been misconstrued? From my understanding, having a low pop score means nothing, but having a high pop score tells you everything you need to know.

Anybody who read Ben's thread saw the continual restating that low pop. players still could pan out of be HoF type guys.

[RedKingGold]

Short and sweet:

Player with >40 pop = solid player
Player with <40 pop = need more information (bars/combines)

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Short and sweet:

Player with >40 pop = solid player
Player with <40 pop = need more information (bars/combines)

Right. I was under the impression that everybody was on the same page on this. I don't read all threads verbatim and missed the "low pop=teh suck" crowd.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Matthean

When I came back to the thread, I remembered the draft position was listed in there as well. Even for a MP league, he was late first round. Good to know.

Well, one other key info bit here is that there were three studly-looking TEs in that particular draft class. Helmic was the last to go. The other two went at #15 and #22. I suspect that if the other two hadn't been there, Helmic would have gone higher.

[MIJB#19]

If you're going to bump this thread, well, you know the px pls drill!

[Chubby]

i'm seeing his as 66/66

[Ben E Lou]

Yup. His numbers dropped 4 or 5 points in FA1:1--either that odd year 2/3 false negative stuff, or he's one of the early peak guys. We'll know much more at camp.

[Chubby]

dropping fast

[Sef0r]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Short and sweet:

Player with >40 pop = solid player
Player with <40 pop = need more information (bars/combines)

I thought the latest patch made this untrue? It was an easy tell and Jim changed it right?

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Sef0r

I thought the latest patch made this untrue? It was an easy tell and Jim changed it right?

Yes, but RKG posted that in August of 2008.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Chubby

dropping fast

Good thing, acute priapism is no fun.

[Ben E Lou]

Heh.

Yeah, Helmic was one of those "develop early, start dropping in year 4ish" types. These types seem to be found at RB fairly often, but evidently TEs can do it, too. No worries, as he's still at a career 9.3ypt, and I found another good one fairly late in the third round last year. I love me some TEs.

http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/...playerid=15915