Electoral College Fun

st.cronin · 05-09-2008, 09:27 AM

I don't think this belongs in either of the party nomination threads. This is more "politics as spectator sport."

www.predictnovember.com

I've been playing around on this site, and have finally come up with what I think is a plausible scenario for an electoral college tie:

Edit: Hmm, map not displaying. Not sure why.

st.cronin · 05-09-2008, 09:54 AM

Anyway, the scenario is:

Dems win HI, CA, WA, OR, MN, IA, WI, IL, PA, NY, ME, VT, MA, CT, DE, DC, NH, RI, NJ, MD, FL.

Basically, the Republicans win Michigan and Ohio, but lose Pennsylvania and Florida.

Eaglesfan27 · 05-09-2008, 10:00 AM

It displayed for me when I clicked on the picture.

Greyroofoo · 05-09-2008, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

It displayed for me when I clicked on the picture.

+1

chesapeake · 05-09-2008, 11:34 AM

It is very much like throwing darts at the board right now. I tipped some purple states over to Obama where the Dems have Senate candidates for open seats where the GOP hasn't been able to find credible opposition AND the Dems have shown a big fundraising advantage. It seemed as good of a predictor as any at this point.

hxxp://chesapeake.predictnovember.com/

st.cronin · 05-09-2008, 11:39 AM

I said it in the other thread, but I don't think there is any way McCain can lose in New Mexico. I think its as safe as Kansas. Only Bill Richardson as a veep candidate could change that, and he would be a bad pick for other reasons.

chesapeake · 05-09-2008, 04:52 PM

I absolutely understand why you would say that. But I look at 1) popular Dem governor campaigning for him; and, 2) Udall outraising, outspending and outpolling both republicans by wide margins in the Senate race; and, 3) I think McCain hits the wall hard this fall. It is all speculation at this point, so you may well be right. Obama would certainly have to turn up the charm on the Hispanic community, but I see Richardson as being an important part of that.

SackAttack · 05-09-2008, 04:57 PM

The other wild card is McCain's position on immigration, though.

If you're a Latino, do you trust his previous position, the one for which he co-sponsored a bill, or his more recent position, designed to convince conservatives that he really has "seen the light"?

If the Latino vote thinks he's just playing politics and that his previous position is his true one, then they'll be more likely to embrace him, sure. If he really has changed his tune, wouldn't that be an arrow in Obama's pouch?

ISiddiqui · 05-09-2008, 04:59 PM

The only real difference between his previous position and his "recent position" is what to emphasize first. Really, the only difference appears to be that he'll secure the border first, and then come up with a plan to allow the 11 million people in the country illegally a path to citizenship.

05-09-2008, 09:54 AM	#2
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	Anyway, the scenario is: Dems win HI, CA, WA, OR, MN, IA, WI, IL, PA, NY, ME, VT, MA, CT, DE, DC, NH, RI, NJ, MD, FL. Basically, the Republicans win Michigan and Ohio, but lose Pennsylvania and Florida. __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

05-09-2008, 10:00 AM	#3
Eaglesfan27 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: New Jersey	It displayed for me when I clicked on the picture. __________________ Retired GM of the eNFL 2007 Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles (19-0 record.) GM of the WOOF 2006 Doggie Bowl Champion Atlantic City Gamblers. GM of the IHOF 2019 and 2022 IHOF Bowl Champion Asheville Axemen.

05-09-2008, 11:39 AM	#6
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	I said it in the other thread, but I don't think there is any way McCain can lose in New Mexico. I think its as safe as Kansas. Only Bill Richardson as a veep candidate could change that, and he would be a bad pick for other reasons. __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

05-09-2008, 04:52 PM	#7
chesapeake College Starter Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Arlington, VA	I absolutely understand why you would say that. But I look at 1) popular Dem governor campaigning for him; and, 2) Udall outraising, outspending and outpolling both republicans by wide margins in the Senate race; and, 3) I think McCain hits the wall hard this fall. It is all speculation at this point, so you may well be right. Obama would certainly have to turn up the charm on the Hispanic community, but I see Richardson as being an important part of that. Last edited by chesapeake : 05-09-2008 at 04:53 PM. Reason: I can't type fer sh..

05-09-2008, 04:59 PM	#9
ISiddiqui Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Decatur, GA	The only real difference between his previous position and his "recent position" is what to emphasize first. Really, the only difference appears to be that he'll secure the border first, and then come up with a plan to allow the 11 million people in the country illegally a path to citizenship. __________________ "A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams

05-09-2008, 11:34 AM	#5
chesapeake College Starter Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Arlington, VA	It is very much like throwing darts at the board right now. I tipped some purple states over to Obama where the Dems have Senate candidates for open seats where the GOP hasn't been able to find credible opposition AND the Dems have shown a big fundraising advantage. It seemed as good of a predictor as any at this point. hxxp://chesapeake.predictnovember.com/

05-09-2008, 04:57 PM	#8
SackAttack Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Green Bay, WI	The other wild card is McCain's position on immigration, though. If you're a Latino, do you trust his previous position, the one for which he co-sponsored a bill, or his more recent position, designed to convince conservatives that he really has "seen the light"? If the Latino vote thinks he's just playing politics and that his previous position is his true one, then they'll be more likely to embrace him, sure. If he really has changed his tune, wouldn't that be an arrow in Obama's pouch?

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