Volatility questions.

[DrAFTjunkie]

From what I've read, I've come to assume that volatility is the chance a player will "boom" or "bust." Is this correct? And if so, how far along into his career can I expect something to happen if it's going to happen. Is the probablity of a fluctuation more or less possible in year 6 than in year 1, or 2?

Can I expect big fluctuations, creepers, or both.

Is there any way to gauge what might happen? Can I spot a creeper?

Is this increase/decrease in ability reflected in a numbers fluctuation, say a 18/31 to 18/47 (or 18/22 for that matter), or is it strictly a performance based factor that isn't based on bars or numbers?

Is there any way I can positively influence a high volatility player? Is good chemistry, mentoring or playing time a factor, or is it just a random number that I can neither help nor hinder?

Any other thoughts and suggestions for the n00b?

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by DrAFTjunkie

From what I've read, I've come to assume that volatility is the chance a player will "boom" or "bust." Is this correct?

Yes.

And if so, how far along into his career can I expect something to happen if it's going to happen. Is the probablity of a fluctuation more or less possible in year 6 than in year 1, or 2?

A boom or bust can pretty much happen any season of a players career now. The first five or six years might be more likely maybe, or it just seems that way to me.

Can I expect big fluctuations, creepers, or both.

Both

Is there any way to gauge what might happen? Can I spot a creeper?

If you use the change tracker utility (3rd party, look in the reference thread) then you can keep track of changes, and you will spot guys creeping over time.

Is this increase/decrease in ability reflected in a numbers fluctuation, say a 18/31 to 18/47 (or 18/22 for that matter), or is it strictly a performance based factor that isn't based on bars or numbers?

To me a 'creeper' is a guy who has his ratings creeping up over time. You will see guys with crap bars that may never go up, play well though.

Is there any way I can positively influence a high volatility player? Is good chemistry, mentoring or playing time a factor, or is it just a random number that I can neither help nor hinder?

I have never heard of a way to influence a boom/bust. It will just happen.

Any other thoughts and suggestions for the n00b?

Take some time to go through the reference thread and grab some of the info it links to in a bunch of threads.

[DrAFTjunkie]

Thanks a lot for the help Battle Cat, oh, I mean Cringer. Your name is a Masters of the Universe reference, no?

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by DrAFTjunkie

Thanks a lot for the help Battle Cat, oh, I mean Cringer. Your name is a Masters of the Universe reference, no?

Not really, but I don't mind the connection. I used to watch it a lot as a kid. I took the name online why back in high school, and it comes from both a bands name and the name of a friends dog. I just liked it back then and have stuck with it.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

I will add that many believe you can speed up the unmasking of ratings by sending the guy to summer league.

[DrAFTjunkie]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

I will add that many believe you can speed up the unmasking of ratings by sending the guy to summer league.

Right on, I'll keep that in mind. Thanks.

[DrAFTjunkie]

Originally Posted by Cringer

Not really, but I don't mind the connection. I used to watch it a lot as a kid. I took the name online why back in high school, and it comes from both a bands name and the name of a friends dog. I just liked it back then and have stuck with it.

Cringer from SoCal? No shit. I haven't thought of them in years. Wow, that brings me back.

Around '93/'94 I ran a punk zine with a friend and had a lot of readers in SoCal (and Indiana for some reason) We did a lot with Epitaph and actually no-showed on an interview with Offspring (before they broke) when they were in Boston. I hated Offspring, and was actually convinced that it would be Voodoo Glow Skulls that would be the household name...in my circles at least. 15 years later, and I'm still hearing fucking Offspring. No me gusta. Good thing I'm not a talent scout because I thought they, and most of Epitaph's bands were trash. I dug Wayne Kramer's solo stuff and i think the Damned ended up over there, but all in all...blech. I wish I had the relationship with Sub Pop that I had with Epitaph. I dug a LOT of Sub Pop bands and would've probably kept at the zine going and not gone to trade school if things were different.

I know Cringer from a tape...yes a tape...that a guy named Mush sent me from out there. From what I remember, they were a part of the *something something* scene (I don't recall the name) and not affiliated with Epitaph at all. They're music was definitelty derivative, but in a good way if that's at all possible. I wonder if I still have that tape somewhere. Not that I'd have anything to play it on, but whatever.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by DrAFTjunkie

Cringer from SoCal? No shit. I haven't thought of them in years. Wow, that brings me back.

Around '93/'94 I ran a punk zine with a friend and had a lot of readers in SoCal (and Indiana for some reason) We did a lot with Epitaph and actually no-showed on an interview with Offspring (before they broke) when they were in Boston. I hated Offspring, and was actually convinced that it would be Voodoo Glow Skulls that would be the household name...in my circles at least. 15 years later, and I'm still hearing fucking Offspring. No me gusta. Good thing I'm not a talent scout because I thought they, and most of Epitaph's bands were trash. I dug Wayne Kramer's solo stuff and i think the Damned ended up over there, but all in all...blech. I wish I had the relationship with Sub Pop that I had with Epitaph. I dug a LOT of Sub Pop bands and would've probably kept at the zine going and not gone to trade school if things were different.

I know Cringer from a tape...yes a tape...that a guy named Mush sent me from out there. From what I remember, they were a part of the *something something* scene (I don't recall the name) and not affiliated with Epitaph at all. They're music was definitelty derivative, but in a good way if that's at all possible. I wonder if I still have that tape somewhere. Not that I'd have anything to play it on, but whatever.

That would be the same Cringer I'm sure. 'They' actually have a myspace page up I see, go listen a few songs there. http://www.myspace.com/cringerhbr

I like Cringer, but the best thing about them is that I know that Lance and Gardner went on to start one of my favorite bands, J Church.