Fun little dilemma.

Ben E Lou · 07-20-2009, 12:10 PM

My long-time starting QB (cohesion!) is rated 71/71. He suffered a hyperextended elbow in the wild card round of the playoffs. His 65/65 backup came in and engineered a comeback. The next week, the starter was out, and the backup was good, not great, as we advanced.

So now we're in the Conference Championship. The starter is Questionable/"Good" Performance/Very Low chance of reinjury.

STARTER: http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/...?playerid=7396

BACKUP: http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/...?playerid=5672

How do you play it? Vote and comment. Poll on the way.

bmerryman · 07-20-2009, 12:14 PM

I went with the cohesion.

Ben E Lou · 07-20-2009, 12:16 PM

Oh, fwiw, I think I've made my decision already. I just think this is a nice topic for a debate.

Celeval · 07-20-2009, 12:48 PM

Full disclosure that I'm the team he's going up against.

It's also worth noting that the starter absolutely kills me anytime we play. In his twelve year career, he's thrown two 6-TD games and 4 5-TD against us; not counting his first game against us in his rookie year, he's only thown more than one interception once (a 3-TD, 2-pick game with plenty of passing yards), and we've only held him to 0 TDs once. Against us this season: 24/29, 344, 5 TD, 1 Int; 26/32, 399, 5 TD, 1 Int for a combined 143.3 rating. Our pass defense is middle of the road overall, but take his numbers out and they're pretty good: all season: 391/595, 4440, 24-17 for a 89.5 QB Rating (league average is 89.2); but against everyone-but-Duncan, they're 341-534, 3697, 14 TDs, 15 Int (81.2 rating).

Career against us: 379/580, 4745 yards, 54 TDs, 14 Int, 111.6 QB Rating in 21 games.

We've faced the backup three times on a different team, and he's thrown 3 TDs and 0 Ints in that time.

Ben E Lou · 07-20-2009, 12:53 PM

Details of what Celeval mentions, fwiw:

http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/...672&TEAM_ID=14

http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/...396&TEAM_ID=14

That seen, I don't think there's any reason to believe that certain players perform better/worse against certain teams in FOF.

Hammer · 07-20-2009, 12:58 PM

I think its a tough call. They both appear to have great records and are quality players. Looking at the stats the backup seems to throw less interceptions. If he genuinely projects to have better avoid interceptions, I would go with him. If its a wash, or you feel there is another reason for the stats being the way they are, I'd go with the starter.

Ben E Lou · 07-20-2009, 01:11 PM

Both were FOF2K4 players, so the original avoid interceptions numbers should be around somewhere. I don't have my FOF2K4 license code anywhere that I can find it quickly, though.

Hard to compare on the interceptions stats for sure, though, because Duncan has historically use a far more reckless game plan than Downing (or, for that matter, nearly every single QB in the league.)

Kodos · 07-20-2009, 01:18 PM

I'm always cautious with injuries, but I say you start Duncan. Cohesion plus the fact that you know he is good in your system over time seems like enough to justify the injury risk.

Oh, and glad I caused this dilemma for you!

gstelmack · 07-20-2009, 01:40 PM

Going on the situation only (since you don't give names in the post but only use the names in the poll and I don't want to click the links to find out...) I'd keep the backup in there. "Good Performance" is not good enough for the playoffs.

Dutch · 07-20-2009, 01:52 PM

Long-time starter every single time. If the last 10 games or so show no signs of letting up, go with the vet.

Celeval · 07-20-2009, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Details of what Celeval mentions, fwiw:

http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/...672&TEAM_ID=14

http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/...396&TEAM_ID=14

That seen, I don't think there's any reason to believe that certain players perform better/worse against certain teams in FOF.

Not directly so, no. But different skill sets and (as you've mentioned) different offensive gameplans would play better/worse against a particular defensive gameplan and defensive skill sets.

Jughead Spock · 07-20-2009, 04:45 PM

Cohesion, for sure. I don't think FOF rewards the idea of the 'hot hand'.

zbuckley · 07-20-2009, 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jughead Spock

Cohesion, for sure. I don't think FOF rewards the idea of the 'hot hand'.

totally agree

Skolleck · 07-20-2009, 06:51 PM

I start Duncan with a 1 and a short leash

RedKingGold · 07-20-2009, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skolleck

I start Duncan with a 1 and a short leash

Bingo.

MIJB#19 · 07-21-2009, 07:21 AM

Questionable status is usually where I don't risk players. Even if it's noted as 'no risk of re-injury', which is no guarantee to not get injured. With my usual play injured settings, he's likely to be pulled anyway, but I'm betting Ben has it sky high.

Other things to consider:
* Duncan is old, if he blows his elbow, it's not as much of an issue
* This team is the defending league champion, so there's no pressing need to go all out for a last opportunity to win it all
* Downing isn't your average backup QB, but I've seen other veteran skilled low cohesion QBs choke in these type of games (sample size be damned)

All things considered, I'd put my team in Duncan's hands. It's his team and he's old enough to be worth the risk reward to destroy the remainder of his career on his life-long team.

gstelmack · 07-21-2009, 07:58 AM

So no one cares about the skill reduction from the injury?

Ben E Lou · 07-21-2009, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstelmack

So no one cares about the skill reduction from the injury?

Not many, evidently.

My thinking from the time I posted this thread was Duncan (starter) with playing time of 1. I thought it might be controversial, but it's 25-3 in favor of starting Duncan, with 15 of the 25 saying basically "play him until he gets hurt." If I'd thought it would be that lopsided, I woudn't have posted the thread. *shurg*

Hammer · 07-21-2009, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Not many, evidently.

My thinking from the time I posted this thread was Duncan (starter) with playing time of 1.

Whats the danger of your 3rd QB ending up in the game with that approach?

Jughead Spock · 07-21-2009, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstelmack

So no one cares about the skill reduction from the injury?

Duncan's in his twelfth year. He, at most, has two more games to play this season. I'd trade a leg being ripped off for a shot at a title any year, esp. with someone who may just retire if you sit him anyway. I know he'll probably go another 5, but just sayin'. Worth the trade-off to me.

gstelmack · 07-21-2009, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jughead Spock

Duncan's in his twelfth year. He, at most, has two more games to play this season. I'd trade a leg being ripped off for a shot at a title any year, esp. with someone who may just retire if you sit him anyway. I know he'll probably go another 5, but just sayin'. Worth the trade-off to me.

I'm talking about him not playing as well in this game because of the injury, not the potential for long-term harm. He will play below his ratings ("Good performance") in this game because he is hurt.

Jughead Spock · 07-21-2009, 01:58 PM

Ahhh. Seems like in Ben's offenses, as long as they can stand upright, they'll do fine.

Kodos · 07-21-2009, 02:16 PM

Heh. Looks like I accidentally voted for the wrong option. I meant to choose option 3, not 4.

Celeval · 07-21-2009, 02:30 PM

This is one where I'd really prefer the trout (start QB3) option.

Ben E Lou · 07-21-2009, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I'm talking about him not playing as well in this game because of the injury, not the potential for long-term harm. He will play below his ratings ("Good performance") in this game because he is hurt.

I don't know for sure, but I think the order is...

High
Fairly High
Good
Decent

Are there any others?

bmerryman · 07-21-2009, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstelmack

So no one cares about the skill reduction from the injury?

Sure, it's a factor but I suspect the effect of the cohesion hit is greater than the effect of the skill reduction hit because of the injury.

Ben E Lou · 07-22-2009, 11:36 AM

I started Duncan, with playing time of 2.

RESULTS: 2021 Conference Championship Results - IHOF Forums

gstelmack · 07-22-2009, 01:39 PM

Well if you would have played Downing you wouldn't have needed all that luck to win now would you?

Julio Riddols · 07-23-2009, 05:45 AM

FWIW, I would have gone with Duncan too. How bad can a hyperextended elbow get?

I do believe that certain teams do better against certain other teams, but strictly based on the game planning being used by the two separate GMs. I know there are some dudes who just have my number, and vice versa .

MIJB#19 · 07-23-2009, 06:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Well if you would have played Downing you wouldn't have needed all that luck to win now would you?

Luck had nothing to do with this victory, it did with at least one other this season.

OldSchool · 07-25-2009, 02:31 PM

Voted play the backup and keep him in unless its a blowout. I see I'm the only one so this is probably a horrible plan.

My thinking is that you stick with the guy that's healthy. I didn't pick playing time = 1, but that's really just my personal bias as far as how I'd run a real football team, which is often not a great way to make decisions in this game but just how I roll. (I've always though a QB on a short leash plays nervously)

View Poll Results: Which QB would you start in the Conference Championship game?
Duncan (starter), with playing time of 2 or more. (pretty much assures he plays the whole game unless it's a blowout)	17	45.95%
Downing (backup, with playing time of 2 or more (pretty much assures he plays the whole game unless it's a blowout)	1	2.70%
Duncan (starter), with playing time of 1 (yank him if he's struggling)	14	37.84%
Downing (backup), with playing time of 1 (yank him if he's struggling)	5	13.51%
Voters: 37. You may not vote on this poll

07-20-2009, 12:16 PM	#3
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	Oh, fwiw, I think I've made my decision already. I just think this is a nice topic for a debate. __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'!

07-20-2009, 12:48 PM	#4
Celeval Pro Starter Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Cary, NC, USA	Full disclosure that I'm the team he's going up against. It's also worth noting that the starter absolutely kills me anytime we play. In his twelve year career, he's thrown two 6-TD games and 4 5-TD against us; not counting his first game against us in his rookie year, he's only thown more than one interception once (a 3-TD, 2-pick game with plenty of passing yards), and we've only held him to 0 TDs once. Against us this season: 24/29, 344, 5 TD, 1 Int; 26/32, 399, 5 TD, 1 Int for a combined 143.3 rating. Our pass defense is middle of the road overall, but take his numbers out and they're pretty good: all season: 391/595, 4440, 24-17 for a 89.5 QB Rating (league average is 89.2); but against everyone-but-Duncan, they're 341-534, 3697, 14 TDs, 15 Int (81.2 rating). Career against us: 379/580, 4745 yards, 54 TDs, 14 Int, 111.6 QB Rating in 21 games. We've faced the backup three times on a different team, and he's thrown 3 TDs and 0 Ints in that time. Last edited by Celeval : 07-20-2009 at 12:50 PM.

07-20-2009, 12:53 PM	#5
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	Details of what Celeval mentions, fwiw: http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/...672&TEAM_ID=14 http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/...396&TEAM_ID=14 That seen, I don't think there's any reason to believe that certain players perform better/worse against certain teams in FOF. __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'!

07-20-2009, 01:11 PM	#7
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	Both were FOF2K4 players, so the original avoid interceptions numbers should be around somewhere. I don't have my FOF2K4 license code anywhere that I can find it quickly, though. Hard to compare on the interceptions stats for sure, though, because Duncan has historically use a far more reckless game plan than Downing (or, for that matter, nearly every single QB in the league.) __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'!

07-20-2009, 12:14 PM	#2
bmerryman Mascot Join Date: Jun 2007	I went with the cohesion.

07-20-2009, 12:58 PM	#6
Hammer College Prospect Join Date: Sep 2005	I think its a tough call. They both appear to have great records and are quality players. Looking at the stats the backup seems to throw less interceptions. If he genuinely projects to have better avoid interceptions, I would go with him. If its a wash, or you feel there is another reason for the stats being the way they are, I'd go with the starter.

07-20-2009, 01:18 PM	#8
Kodos Resident Alien Join Date: Jun 2001	I'm always cautious with injuries, but I say you start Duncan. Cohesion plus the fact that you know he is good in your system over time seems like enough to justify the injury risk. Oh, and glad I caused this dilemma for you! __________________ Indiana Hoosiers Football - 2025-26 National Champs The FOFC Ladder History thread

07-20-2009, 01:40 PM	#9
gstelmack Pro Starter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Cary, NC	Going on the situation only (since you don't give names in the post but only use the names in the poll and I don't want to click the links to find out...) I'd keep the backup in there. "Good Performance" is not good enough for the playoffs. __________________ -- Greg -- Author of various FOF utilities

07-20-2009, 01:52 PM	#10
Dutch "Dutch" Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Tampa, FL	Long-time starter every single time. If the last 10 games or so show no signs of letting up, go with the vet.

07-20-2009, 04:45 PM	#12
Jughead Spock High School Varsity Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Lowcountry, SC	Cohesion, for sure. I don't think FOF rewards the idea of the 'hot hand'.

07-20-2009, 06:51 PM	#14
Skolleck n00b Join Date: May 2005	I start Duncan with a 1 and a short leash

07-21-2009, 07:21 AM	#16
MIJB#19 Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands	Questionable status is usually where I don't risk players. Even if it's noted as 'no risk of re-injury', which is no guarantee to not get injured. With my usual play injured settings, he's likely to be pulled anyway, but I'm betting Ben has it sky high. Other things to consider: * Duncan is old, if he blows his elbow, it's not as much of an issue * This team is the defending league champion, so there's no pressing need to go all out for a last opportunity to win it all * Downing isn't your average backup QB, but I've seen other veteran skilled low cohesion QBs choke in these type of games (sample size be damned) All things considered, I'd put my team in Duncan's hands. It's his team and he's old enough to be worth the risk reward to destroy the remainder of his career on his life-long team. __________________ * 2005 Golden Scribe winner for best FOF Dynasty about IHOF's Maassluis Merchantmen * Former GM of GEFL's Houston Oilers and WOOF's Curacao Cocktail

07-21-2009, 07:58 AM	#17
gstelmack Pro Starter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Cary, NC	So no one cares about the skill reduction from the injury? __________________ -- Greg -- Author of various FOF utilities

07-21-2009, 01:58 PM	#22
Jughead Spock High School Varsity Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Lowcountry, SC	Ahhh. Seems like in Ben's offenses, as long as they can stand upright, they'll do fine.

07-21-2009, 02:16 PM	#23
Kodos Resident Alien Join Date: Jun 2001	Heh. Looks like I accidentally voted for the wrong option. I meant to choose option 3, not 4. __________________ Indiana Hoosiers Football - 2025-26 National Champs The FOFC Ladder History thread

07-21-2009, 02:30 PM	#24
Celeval Pro Starter Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Cary, NC, USA	This is one where I'd really prefer the trout (start QB3) option.

07-22-2009, 11:36 AM	#27
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	I started Duncan, with playing time of 2. RESULTS: 2021 Conference Championship Results - IHOF Forums __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'!

07-22-2009, 01:39 PM	#28
gstelmack Pro Starter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Cary, NC	Well if you would have played Downing you wouldn't have needed all that luck to win now would you? __________________ -- Greg -- Author of various FOF utilities

07-23-2009, 05:45 AM	#29
Julio Riddols College Prospect Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Bryson Shitty, NC	FWIW, I would have gone with Duncan too. How bad can a hyperextended elbow get? I do believe that certain teams do better against certain other teams, but strictly based on the game planning being used by the two separate GMs. I know there are some dudes who just have my number, and vice versa . __________________ Recklessly enthused, stubbornly amused. FUCK EA

07-25-2009, 02:31 PM	#31
OldSchool High School Varsity Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Florida	Voted play the backup and keep him in unless its a blowout. I see I'm the only one so this is probably a horrible plan. My thinking is that you stick with the guy that's healthy. I didn't pick playing time = 1, but that's really just my personal bias as far as how I'd run a real football team, which is often not a great way to make decisions in this game but just how I roll. (I've always though a QB on a short leash plays nervously)

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)