NFL Prediction Contest

[QuikSand]

THIS POST WAS A CONTEST WE RAN IN 2010.

SKIP TO PAGE 3, POST #128 TO SEE THOUGHTS ON A 2012 REVIVAL



Here’s the basic setup:

$20 to enter, covers the whole season
The core of the game is how many games will an NFL team win this year
The starting point for buying and selling is the number of games they won last year - 2009 Standings
You “buy” teams that you think will do better than last year
You “sell” teams that you think will not do as well as last year
You can buy/sell the same team again, but it gets more expensive
Use up your budget, and the entry with the most total net wins… WINS

The specifics
You will be started off with a $20 budget to work with
Build your budget by “selling” shares of a team that you think will decline
When you “sell” a team, you get a dollar added to your budget for each game they won last year
If you want to sell the team again, you can… but you get a dollar less for the next sale (and so on)
Once you have a final budget to spend ($20 base plus yield from your sales) you can buy teams
When you “buy” a team, you spend a dollar from your budget for each game they won last year
If you want to buy the team again, you can… but you spend a dollar more for the next sale (and so on)

Your score at the end of the year will be the total of:
+1 point for each regular season win by the teams you bought (including multiples of the same team)
-1 point for each regular season win by the teams you sold (including multiples of the same team)
+1 point for every dollar you left unspent at the beginning of the season

An example:
I start with $20 to work with, and all I really know about are the NFC East teams (to keep things simple here)
I think the Cowboys are not as good as last year, so I sell them for $11.
I think about it more, and decide that I really think they stink, so I sell them again for $10, and again for $9.
I now have $20+11+10+9 = $50 to spend on the teams that I like.
I think the Giants will do much better this year, so I buy three shares for $8+9+10 = $27.
I think the Eagles will improve, and buy them for $11+12 = $23.
I don’t have any opinion on the Redskins for some reason, so I leave them out.

Final entry looks like this, in abbreviated format:
DAL -3
NYG +3
WAS +2
$0 balance

So, let’s say the season ends up this way:
DAL 10-6
NYG 12-4
PHI 9-7

Then, I end up losing 30 points for my selling DAL 3x, but I gain 36 points for having bought the Giants 3x, and another 18 points for buying PHI 2x. Total score = -30 + 36 + 18 = 24 points.

The Details:

If you want to play, here’s what you need to do:

-kindly post something here that you’re playing (but not your picks), it will help momentum for the contest, and I think this thing is basically the more the better

-send your entry as clearly stated as possible, in an email to my gmail address msanderson 313 at gmail dot com, telling me who you are (screen name is fine) and from what email address I should be expecting your PayPal transaction of $20

-send me $20 via paypal to the above address no later than Monday, September 6

-it is my intention to post all entries in a thread at FOFC sometime shortly after that deadline, for our collective amusement, to create some game accountability (I will likely get some entries from non-FOFC people, but I will post them here as well in advance of the season starting), and also for some public math-checking

-it is your responsibility to submit a legal entry and not overspend your budget, I will make reasonable efforts to accommodate problems, but if you enter and do not correct, your entry may be voided

Other general rules:

-I’m in charge, period. If you are not comfortable with that, or demand some sort of grievance appeals process, then sit it out.

-It’s PayPal, that’s the list. I am not interested in getting personal checks from far flung corners of the world and spending my free time managing them. If you don’t like or trust PayPal, sorry.

-I will create a prize structure based on the number of entries, but all entry fees will go back to the winner(s). If it ends up just being a handful of players, then it will likely be winner-take-all. If we get 20 or 30 players, then I will most likely set up something like 65%/25%/10%. If it matters to your strategy, assume a top-heavy distribution of the prize winning.

[kurtism]

I am past due to donate again to the Sanderson Institute of Baller Studies. Count me in.

[wade moore]

in.

[kingfc22]

Interesting. I might have to give this a go.

[QuikSand]

Bumping, with two "in" and a "might" so far. *shurg*

[panerd]

Count me in on this. Love playing around with over/unders (though this is a little different). About to own a lot of stock in St. Louis, may need to re-read these rules a few times though.

[molson]

In! - But ya, I need to make sure I get the rules also.

[albionmoonlight]

In

[QuikSand]

I'll use the Rams as an example, to help out. Thinking in the hypothetical first person here...

Seems like a fairly safe bet to buy a share of STL at $1. So, I'll do that for sure. As long as they win 1 game, I break even, and every game they win beyond the 1 is an extra point for me.

Now that I have bought my first share of STL, it's as if they had a "2" in their W-L record last year. I can still buy them again, but buying another share costs mr $2 from my budget. Now, rather than being the cheapest team out there, they cost as much as DET. Let's say I still like them, and buy another share for $2. As long as they win 2 games I break even on this second share, and every win past that is a net gain.

Okay, now if I want to buy STL again, it's $3. Same decision process, only it's now that they cost more than DET, and as much as TB. My call, whether I want to keep buying them at the increasing price, or whether I now think that another team represents a better value now.

Buying a team for $X is worth it if you believe that the team will win more than X games.

Selling a team for $X is worth it if you believe that the team will win fewer than X games.

That's the core concept here.

[albionmoonlight]

Bump.

Picks made and money sent.

I hope that more of you join up so that I can win more of your money.

And, really, if you think that you know a lot about the NFL, what better way to show it than a contest like this--a low cost affair that lets you pick and choose which teams you think will do well and which ones will do poorly?

[wade moore]

So, I think in spreadsheets, not formulas, common sense, etc..

I went to start doing this and put together a spreadsheet.

You can use it here:

Welcome to Google Docs

It's open to edit by the public, so, be careful on what you save here. You can pull it down to an .xls file or make a copy on your own google account if you want.

Anyway, how it works:

You should only modify fields that are GREY. The other columns have formulas and you'll screw things up if you modify them.

So, you are entering three things:

Buys
Sells
Projected Wins

So, if you go to the "sell" tab, you will put an X for each time you want to sell a team.

If you go to the "buy" tab, you will put an X for each time you want to buy a team.

Then the summary tab gives you your summary. Tells you how much cash you have, etc. You can then modify the "Projected Wins" column to figure out how many points you would have based on your projected wins.

If you have questions, let me know. This may be MORE confusing for some, but it helps me wrap my head around it.

[wade moore]

picks sent.

[QuikSand]

guess the setup here is a bit too clumsy to attract a dozen or two people like I had hoped, but I'll bump it for yuks.

Maybe a public "trial" here with chitchat on who picked whom (once it's all laid out) can spur this into a lasting event. *shurg*

[wade moore]

Yeah - there were a lot of directions to go with this. I'm skeptical on whether mine was "right", so I'm curious to see the thought process of others.

I know I mentioned it to one or two people and got a "that's too complicated" response - but really it's not that complicated if you really understand it.

[Suicane75]

I'm pretty sure i'm in on this. I just need a day or two make sure I don't make myself look stupid.

[albionmoonlight]

The short of it is if you think that a team will do better than last season, buy them. If you think that a team will do worse than last season, sell them.

The +/- stuff looks a lot harder than it actually is.

[albionmoonlight]

It might also help to ask why people who might have been interested didn't sign up. If you are reading this post, then you are someone who is at least interested enough to read this thread. Why didn't you sign up? Don't like gambling for real money? Rules were too convoluted? Just didn't have time? Not a member of PayPal?

I realize that people may not want to post here that they didn't get it or didn't want to send money, etc. But any insight we can get on why contests like this don't take off will help us all to make better versions of contests like this.

[Masked]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Not a member of PayPal?

Basically this

More accurately, I have no idea how to access my old account and don't want to set up a new one.

[Suicane75]

Money and Predictions sent. Come on folks, join in.

[kurtism]

Selections in and paid.

[QuikSand]

Based on traffic here and feedback from a few people I know personally, I'm guessing 9-12 entries here. If we're in that range, we'll probably give $40 to second place, and the rest to the winner, FYI.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by Masked

Basically this

More accurately, I have no idea how to access my old account and don't want to set up a new one.

Mine was paypal as well, but then I ended up having to set up an account to buy tickets on ebay, so now I'm probably in. Just need to sit down and think about it.

[QuikSand]

I have about 5-6 entries already received, and commitments for at least a couple more, plus my own sitting in draft form.

[albionmoonlight]

I am really curious to see how folks approached this.

[Maple Leafs]

Totally missed this until now. Any chance of an extension past today?

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Totally missed this until now. Any chance of an extension past today?

It turns out it takes a few days for the money to move from my bank to paypal - so let us know if you are ok with the payment coming later in the week.

[QuikSand]

Yes, I will take entries until tomorrow night.

[TRO]

Entry (donation) submitted.

Thanks Quik.

[panerd]

snet. Let me know if you didn't get the paypal or the picks e-mail.

[lynchjm24]

Entry sent.

[QuikSand]

Trying to get through these to post a summary here. May be sometime fairly late tonight before I get to it, but it looks like we have roughly ten entries.

[QuikSand]

Ok, I got entries in just about every format imaginable. Pasting some, some had to be parsed out a bit, but here's the raw data. Sorry in advance for any formatting messes.

- - -

wademoore

Sell:
San Diego x1
Minnesota x2
Arizona x1

Buy:

Washington x3
Detroit x2
St. Louis x2

$ left = a lot, i'll add it up whenever

- - -

dbjuppe

Sell:
ARZ 10,9
IND 14
SD 13
MIN 12
NO 13

Buy:
SF 8,9
Stl 1,2,3
NYJ 9,10
MIA 7,8
BAL 9
TEN 8
WAS 4,5,6
DET 2,3,4

- - -

Suicane75

*SELLS*
Sell Minnesota X3
$12, $11, $10= $33
$33 + $20= $53

Sell Pittsburgh X1
$9= $9
$9 + $53= $64

Sell Indianapolis X2
$14, $13= $27
$27 + $64= $91

Sell Philadelphia X1
$11= $11
$11 + $91= $102

Sell Seattle X1
$5= $5
$5 + $102= $107

Sell Cincinnati X1
$10= $10
$10 + $107= $117

Sell Chicago X1
$7= $7
$7 + $117= $124

Sell Arizona X1
$10= $10
$10 + $124= $134

Sell Buffalo X1
$6= $6
$6 + $134= $140


*BUYS*
Buy Washington X3
$4, $5, $6= $15
$140 - $15= $125

Buy NY Giants X2
$8, $9= $17
$125 - $17= $108

Buy Detroit X7,
$2, $3, $4, $5, $6, $7, $8= $35
$108 - $35= $73

Buy San Fransisco X1
$8= $8
$73 - $8= $65

Buy KC X2
$4, $5= $9
$65 - $9= $56

Buy Baltimore X2
$9, $10= $19
$56 - $19= $37

Buy St. Louis X3
$1, $2, $3= $6
$37 - $6= $31

Will leave $31 Unused.

- - -

kurtism

Sell:

Colts
Chargers
Vikings
Eagles
Cardinals*2

Buy:

Rams*4
Lions*3
Redskins*4
Chiefs*2
Raiders*3
Ravens
Seahawks
Dolphins

- - -

TRO

Sell:
IND x2
NO
SD x2
MIN
PHI
ARZ x2
CIN
DEN x2
CHI
BUF

Buy:
BAL x2
MIA
OAK
KC x3
WAS x2
TB
DET x2
STL x2

- - -

panerd
*
Indy Sell 3 $39
New Orleans Sell 2 $25
San Diego Sell 2 $25
Minnesota Sell 3 $33
Dallas Sell 1 $11
Green Bay Sell 1 $11
Philly Sell 3 $30
Arizona Sell 3 $27
Cinci Sell 2 $19
Houston Sell 1 $9
Pittsburgh Sell 1 $9
Net Sales $238
*
Baltimore Buy 1 -$9
NY Giants Buy 1 -$8
Chicago Buy 3 -$24
Miami Buy 1 -$7
Oakland Buy 2 -$11
Seattle Buy 2 -$11
KC Buy 2 -$9
Washington buy 4 -$22
Tampa Buy 3 -$12
Detroit Buy 3 -$9
St. Louis Buy 8 -$36
Net Purchases -$158
*
Cash on hand $100

- - -

lynchjm24
Sell Minnesota $12* - $32
Sell New Orleans $13 - $45
Sell Arizona $10 - $55
Sell Arizona $9 - $64
Sell Indianapolis $14 - $78
Sell Indianapolis $13 - $91
Sell San Diego $13 - $104
Sell San Diego $12 - $116
Sell San Diego $11 - $127
Sell Buffalo $6 - $133
Sell Pittsburgh $9 - $142
Sell NYG $8 - $150

Buy Washington $4 - $146
Buy Washington $5 - $141
Buy Detroit $2 - $139
Buy Detroit $3 - $136
Buy Detroit $4 - $132
Buy Tampa $3 - $129
Buy Tampa $4 - $125
Buy StL $1 -$124
Buy StL$2 - $122
Buy StL $3 -$119
Buy StL $4 - $115
Buy KC $4 - $111
Buy KC $5 - $106
Buy Oakland $5 - $101

Start with 101

- - - - -

QuikSand

Start 20

SELL
ARZ 10
SD 13
SD 12
IND 14
IND 13
BUF 6
JAX 7

95 to spend

BUY
STL 1
STL 2
STL 3
STL 4
DET 2
DET 3
DET 4
DET 5
OAK 5
OAK 6
WAS 4
WAS 5
NYG 8
TEN 8
SF 8
SF 9
BAL 9
NYJ 9

Spent 95

[QuikSand]

have one more offline friend who got me $ but i cant find an entry, so possibly one more pending

[albionmoonlight]

I don't know if that list is supposed to be complete, but I (think that I) emailed you this list on the 26th:

Sell:

BENGALS X2 = $19
CHARGERS X3 = $36
COWBOYS X2 = $21
VIKINGS X3 = $33

Buy:

PANTHERS X1 = $8
DOLPHINS X2 = $15
CHIEFS X3 = $15
LIONS X4 = $14
RAMS X4 = $10
BROWNS X1 = $5
BRONCOS X1 = $8
OAKLAND X1 = $5


Sells = $109 + $20 buy-in.
Buys = $80
$129 - $80 = $49 cash remaining

Eric/albionmoonlight

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Ok, I got entries in just about every format imaginable. Pasting some, some had to be parsed out a bit, but here's the raw data. Sorry in advance for any formatting messes.

- - -

wademoore

Sell:
San Diego x1
Minnesota x2
Arizona x1

Buy:

Washington x3
Detroit x2
St. Louis x2

$ left = a lot, i'll add it up whenever

Sorry - should be $43 remaining.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I don't know if that list is supposed to be complete, but I (think that I) emailed you this list on the 26th:

Sell:

BENGALS X2 = $19
CHARGERS X3 = $36
COWBOYS X2 = $21
VIKINGS X3 = $33

Buy:

PANTHERS X1 = $8
DOLPHINS X2 = $15
CHIEFS X3 = $15
LIONS X4 = $14
RAMS X4 = $10
BROWNS X1 = $5
BRONCOS X1 = $8
OAKLAND X1 = $5


Sells = $109 + $20 buy-in.
Buys = $80
$129 - $80 = $49 cash remaining

Eric/albionmoonlight

Confirmed that I received this, but failed tro dig back far enough in my email last night to append it. Apologies to albionmoonlight. This is in also.

[albionmoonlight]

So, talking strategy, my first question is what did people think about spending all of your cash v. leaving some in your pocket.

For me, I just had a stronger sense of teams that I felt would underperform than about teams that I felt would overperform. I didn't really have a plan to leave $49 in hand. I just could not find a place to put it that I felt comfortable with.

Anyone have a more general game-theory approach to that question?

[wade moore]

Trying to put this in a spreadsheet for quik - I've gone through the first three, and dbjuppe and Suicane both have errors...

No math-doin' fools .

[wade moore]

Ok.

I'll get this up in a summary sheet later, but I have dbjuppe at -$7 and Suicane at $29 (if you look at his math, you can see where he had "$9 + $53= $64", so that's the $2 difference there.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

So, talking strategy, my first question is what did people think about spending all of your cash v. leaving some in your pocket.

For me, I just had a stronger sense of teams that I felt would underperform than about teams that I felt would overperform. I didn't really have a plan to leave $49 in hand. I just could not find a place to put it that I felt comfortable with.

Anyone have a more general game-theory approach to that question?

I went with Vegas over/unders and then tweeked a couple of teams like the Rams and Lions. I figure Vegas may not be spot on but the general collective betting public probably has a better idea of what might happen than I do. I may have gone too low on some of the elite teams (sold the Colts, Saints, etc) but it seemed like teams like the 1 win Rams have the most to gain if I loaded up on them and they actually pull out 5-6 wins. (Big if obviously )

Quiksand: You can just send the money to me if you want.

[wade moore]

Here's the link to the spreadsheet to show how I came up with this:

Welcome to Google Docs

Player Total $ Score
wademoore $43 43
dbjuppe ($7) -7
Suicane75 $29 29
kurtism $0 0
TRO $99 99
panerd $100 100
lynchjm24 $101 101
Quiksand $0 0
albionmoonlight $49 49

[Suicane75]

I knew i'd mess something up. :blush:

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

I knew i'd mess something up. :blush:

Yeah, yours doesn't seem like a big deal - dbjuppe's appears a bit more problematic.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

So, talking strategy, my first question is what did people think about spending all of your cash v. leaving some in your pocket.

For me, I just had a stronger sense of teams that I felt would underperform than about teams that I felt would overperform. I didn't really have a plan to leave $49 in hand. I just could not find a place to put it that I felt comfortable with.

Anyone have a more general game-theory approach to that question?

I found it easier to choose teams I thought would regress versus teams that would improve. The teams I bought just won so few games last year it would be hard to not win more.

I did not go in with a plan to keep $101... it just sort of happened because I didn't see a lot of value.

[QuikSand]

The dbjuppe entry error is mine - I translated his horrifying spreadsheet into the list of buys and sells, and missed an entry: SELL CHI 7

Thanks for checking, fellas.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

The dbjuppe entry error is mine - I translated his horrifying spreadsheet into the list of buys and sells, and missed an entry: SELL CHI 7

Thanks for checking, fellas.

Ah, okeedoke - I'll change that on the thing I have.

I guess the advantage to me playing around in excel is it will be VERY easy to calculate points at the end.

[QuikSand]

Have a thought on this, for wade or anyone who might want to help out. I may get to it myself at some point.

I think this would be more fun if we had some sort of "projections," and here's my best idea on that front. For each NFL team, take the current total of wins they have in the standings, and then project that they will play out their remaining games with a win% identical to that from last year.

So, for instance, the Titans were 8-8 last year, and sit at 2-1 right now. For that team, their "projected win total" would be equal to 2 (current wins) + [ 8/16 (last year's win ratio) * 13 (games remaining this year)] = 8.5

Essentially, by being 2-1 already, TEN has earned a half point increase above their record from last year, and by projecting them out to that figure, we could come up with a projected total points for each entry, based on performance to date this year.

Make sense? Anyone interested in chipping in?

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Have a thought on this, for wade or anyone who might want to help out. I may get to it myself at some point.

I think this would be more fun if we had some sort of "projections," and here's my best idea on that front. For each NFL team, take the current total of wins they have in the standings, and then project that they will play out their remaining games with a win% identical to that from last year.

So, for instance, the Titans were 8-8 last year, and sit at 2-1 right now. For that team, their "projected win total" would be equal to 2 (current wins) + [ 8/16 (last year's win ratio) * 13 (games remaining this year)] = 8.5

Essentially, by being 2-1 already, TEN has earned a half point increase above their record from last year, and by projecting them out to that figure, we could come up with a projected total points for each entry, based on performance to date this year.

Make sense? Anyone interested in chipping in?

I should be able to do this pretty easily. I can probably work on it during the games today.

[QuikSand]

sweet, thanks...i think it will add to the contest setup

[wade moore]

If anyone wants to spot-check me, that would be great, but here's what I got:

Player	Total $	Predicted Score
wademoore	$43	10
lynchjm24	$101	-1
TRO	$99	-13
kurtism	$0	-32
albionmoonlight	$49	-32
Quiksand	$0	-46
dbjuppe	$0	-48
Suicane75	$29	-58
panerd	$100	-80