2010 Midterm Election

[lordscarlet]

I know the Obama thread is going strong with election talk, but I thought it might be good to make a thread much like the week-by-week football threads. This is hopefully just talk about results and the like. I have no idea why I am attaching my name to a political thread.

While I have no control over the national balance of power, I am interested to see how things shake out tonight.

[spleen1015]

I'm not big into politics. It gets on my nerves, but I usually am interested come election time.

Do the Republicans have a realistic shot at taking control of the House and Senate?

[sabotai]

The House yes, the Senate will be a close one.

[Butter]

The House turning red is almost a foregone conclusion. But the Senate should still remain blue.

Will be interested to see how the governor voting in Ohio shakes out. A close election means that the angry white guy vote didn't turn out as strongly as hoped by some. A wide win by Kasich will probably portend a pretty large Republican win in the House and maybe even a Senate takeover.

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I'm not big into politics. It gets on my nerves, but I usually am interested come election time.

Do the Republicans have a realistic shot at taking control of the House and Senate?

Same here, that's why I thought I'd attempt to separate things a little bit.

[Ksyrup]

I guess Kentucky will make a little noise tonight with the Rand Paul thing. It's looking like he's going to win.

As crazy as Florida politics usual is, I kinda miss being there this year as things have racheted up a notch or three.

[Ksyrup]

In the spirit of the day... (some NSFW language):


http://

[Poli]

2011?

[Ksyrup]

Aren't election cycles like video games?

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

The House turning red is almost a foregone conclusion. But the Senate should still remain blue.

Will be interested to see how the governor voting in Ohio shakes out. A close election means that the angry white guy vote didn't turn out as strongly as hoped by some. A wide win by Kasich will probably portend a pretty large Republican win in the House and maybe even a Senate takeover.

I'm going to school in Ohio. I hope to god whomever wins doesn't reevaluate the out of state tuiton rates. Since I live so close to Ohio, I only pay about 200 dollars more a year than a resident does. It would be unfortunate if tuiton was to increase substantially.

[chesapeake]

Indiana and Kentucky close their polls at 6 PM eastern. Here are some early things to look for if you are going to watch the returns:
1) Rand Paul - Jack Conway in KY SEN;
2) A couple of DEM House incumbents in IN -- Baron Hill and Joe Donnelly -- are in tough races.

If these races go GOP quickly, the wave is probably running high for the Republicans. The longer they are in doubt -- or if somehow they go the Democrats' way -- the more interesting the night becomes.

Of the 7 PM closings, my own state of VA has some interesting bellweathers. Gerry Connolly (D) in NoVA should win. If he struggles, that bad for the Ds. Ditto for fellow VA incumbent Rick Boucher (D). Tom Perriello (D) should have been toast long ago given the GOP registration advantage in his district. If he somehow is able to hang on, that would be a pretty remarkable victory for the Dems.

Charlie Cook from the National Journal mentions these races for the 8 PM closings: "Reps. Bobby Bright of Alabama, Phil Hare of Illinois, Gene Taylor of Mississippi, Ike Skelton of Missouri, John Adler of New Jersey, Chris Carney of Pennsylvania, and Lincoln Davis of Tennessee. Also, watch deadlocked race for the seat being vacated by Democratic Rep. Bill Delahunt in Massachusetts."

[Ksyrup]

Everything I've read for a couple of weeks points to Rand Paul with a comfortable win, so unless it's too close to call shortly after the polls close, I'm not sure you can read much into it if they declare Paul right off the bat. RCP Average has him up +11.

[jbergey22]

Does Linda McMahon have any chance?

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Poli

2011?

oops

[Swaggs]

The senate and house races in my district should be pretty close.

Joe Manchin seems to have opened up a 4-5% lead in most recent polls. He has been a very popular governor, but Obama is tremendously unpopular and Manchin has continually been branded as a rubberstamp for Obama. I think he'll pull it out, but more because he and the democrats have better machinery within the state. While his opponent, businessman John Raese, has run for Senate a few times before, I cannot imagine his GOTV will be as strong as that of a two-term governor.

In the house race, a local (Morgantown) democrat named Mike Oliverio knocked off a 20+ year incumbent in the primary. He is a pretty nice guy that I know from youth sports in the area. He is facing a businessman named David McKinley, from Wheeling, that has been basically running against Nancy Pelosi and Barrack Obama, rather than Oliverio, the entire time. The polls between these two have been within a few points, either way, for awhile now. I am kind of looking to see if Manchin wins by a lot or Raese wins (or keeps it close than 4-5%) to see who wins this one. I have a feeling it might not get called tonight, but if it gets called early it could be a sort of bell weather for the rest of the country.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Does Linda McMahon have any chance?

Not according to the recent polls.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Does Linda McMahon have any chance?

Not much. If she wins, that probably means the GOP has taken the Senate.

[Comey]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Does Linda McMahon have any chance?

Yes, though she'd have a better chance if the election was next week.

[jbergey22]

Thanks for the responses. I seen on WWE Raw programming last night Vince did a little advertising skit promoting his wife. I am wondering if that race might end up closer than projected due to some of the WWE fans that probably vote once every 20 years showing up just to vote for her.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Another one to watch for possible trending tonight is Jim Marshall (D) from middle Georgia's 8th district. He's in a battle with Austin Scott that very conservative pollsters (i.e. even I'm not confident in those numbers) are showing with up to a 13% lead for the challenger.

Marshall is among the more conservative D's you'll find in the House, frequently bucking Obama agenda items. He's won by as little as 2% in '06 but by 14% against a touted challenger in '08. If he survives tonight, mark that as a good omen for the D's, but if he finally loses, it might be an indication for the fate of at least Southern Blue Dogs.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Thanks for the responses. I seen on WWE Raw programming last night Vince did a little advertising skit promoting his wife. I am wondering if that race might end up closer than projected due to some of the WWE fans that probably vote once every 20 years showing up just to vote for her.

Are there that many of those fans in Connecticut?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Just got back from the polls. I did notice that the propositions and constitution changes on the ballot were very much targeted towards conservative voters. Obviously looking to cash in on the bigger turnout on that side in this election.

Really would hate to see a great politician like Ike Skelton lose his seat as part of this election's backlash. Really good guy who votes his conscience rather than the party line.

Blount vs. Carnahan is a nightmare. Reasons to not be happy no matter who wins.

[Greyroofoo]

Rand Paul has 57% of the vote with 2% of the votes in.

[Rando]

Just got back from voting. Not a lot of drama at the top of the ballot. Thune is running unopposed and bluedog Herseth Sandlin is all but certain to lose to Kristi Noem.

Talking to the volunteers inside it sounded like I missed the real fun earlier in the day. Our local crazy showed up at polling building with a sign that read "Two bullets from the White House" and stood around shouting obsenities at anyone who came went into or came out of the building. They called the sheriff, who never showed up, but eventually the guy left. In a town with less than 100 people there just aren't that many voters to harrass and I'm guessing he got bored.

[stevew]

If Sestak beats Toomey I'm gonna be shocked. If somehow Dahlkemper keeps her seat in PA3, it will be a long night for republicans. Altmire should win reelection, however I think if he loses, a huge R win is in the cards.

[samifan24]

Originally Posted by digamma

Are there that many of those fans in Connecticut?

Well the WWE is based here in Stamford but no, I don't think she wins.

[Greyroofoo]

msnbc has projected that Alvin Greene lost

[tucker rocky]

Election is like the SAT test, multiple choice, filling in the bubbles without going outside the lines.

[Peregrine]

Appropriate song for tonight:

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by tucker rocky

Election is like the SAT test, multiple choice, filling in the bubbles without going outside the lines.

Not in Wisconsin. There is an arrow pointing to your choice, but with the middle of the arrow missing. Complete the arrow to indicate your choice.

It's blessedly simple.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

msnbc has projected that Alvin Greene lost

We won't have Alvin Greene to kick around anymore.

[Izulde]

Nevada uses the touch screens I found out. I miss my Wisconsin arrows.

[RainMaker]

I am always surprised that they never ask for any form of identification at my polling place. Just come in, say my name, sign a sheet, get a ballot.

Kind of interesting to see Republicans start cutting into the latino vote in this election. CNN is talking about it but if they can cut Obama's huge margin in that demographic in the next election, it dramatically changes things. Makes Rubio a very attractive VP candidate in 2012.

[larrymcg421]

Dems doing good in KY and NC, not so much in IN and FL.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I am always surprised that they never ask for any form of identification at my polling place. Just come in, say my name, sign a sheet, get a ballot.

Kind of interesting to see Republicans start cutting into the latino vote in this election. CNN is talking about it but if they can cut Obama's huge margin in that demographic in the next election, it dramatically changes things. Makes Rubio a very attractive VP candidate in 2012.

After the ID law was passed in Georgia, I learned that asking for ID to vote was racist. It seems only white people have picture ID. I never knew that.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I am always surprised that they never ask for any form of identification at my polling place. Just come in, say my name, sign a sheet, get a ballot.

Kinda shocked me to see anyone say that ... then I noticed your location & it suddenly made perfect sense

[Peregrine]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I am always surprised that they never ask for any form of identification at my polling place. Just come in, say my name, sign a sheet, get a ballot.

Same here - they have never asked for any identification at my polling place here.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

The senate and house races in my district should be pretty close.

Joe Manchin seems to have opened up a 4-5% lead in most recent polls. He has been a very popular governor, but Obama is tremendously unpopular and Manchin has continually been branded as a rubberstamp for Obama. I think he'll pull it out, but more because he and the democrats have better machinery within the state. While his opponent, businessman John Raese, has run for Senate a few times before, I cannot imagine his GOTV will be as strong as that of a two-term governor.

In the house race, a local (Morgantown) democrat named Mike Oliverio knocked off a 20+ year incumbent in the primary. He is a pretty nice guy that I know from youth sports in the area. He is facing a businessman named David McKinley, from Wheeling, that has been basically running against Nancy Pelosi and Barrack Obama, rather than Oliverio, the entire time. The polls between these two have been within a few points, either way, for awhile now. I am kind of looking to see if Manchin wins by a lot or Raese wins (or keeps it close than 4-5%) to see who wins this one. I have a feeling it might not get called tonight, but if it gets called early it could be a sort of bell weather for the rest of the country.

If I were still in WV, I would be working for Oliverio's campiagn this yera

[tarcone]

Missouri had a big senate race. Blunt (R) Vs. Carnahan (D).
Both are sleaze bags in my opinion. I voted 3rd party.

EDIT: Blunt leads 59% to 36%

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Kinda shocked me to see anyone say that ... then I noticed your location & it suddenly made perfect sense

Our motto: Vote early and often.

[tarcone]

Blunt declared the winner in Missouri

[stevew]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

After the ID law was passed in Georgia, I learned that asking for ID to vote was racist. It seems only white people have picture ID. I never knew that.

I LOL'd. Sadly some people probably feel this way.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

If I were still in WV, I would be working for Oliverio's campiagn this yera

I'm hoping that Manchin's (seemingly) larger than expected margin has some coat tails for Oliverio. I am trying to find some local numbers -- I'll let you know if I see anything.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I'm hoping that Manchin's (seemingly) larger than expected margin has some coat tails for Oliverio. I am trying to find some local numbers -- I'll let you know if I see anything.

U.S. House, 1st District
(142 of 672 precincts)
David McKinley (R): 24,265
Mike Oliverio (D): 23,968

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

U.S. House, 1st District
(142 of 672 precincts)
David McKinley (R): 24,265
Mike Oliverio (D): 23,968

Thanks. That's been a razor thin race for months and it looks like it will go down to the wire.

What site are you using? Everything I have tried is bogged down.

[larrymcg421]

Not looking good so far. Right now I'm just hoping the Dems can keep it under 60 losses.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Thanks. That's been a razor thin race for months and it looks like it will go down to the wire.

What site are you using? Everything I have tried is bogged down.

Got that from a plain text page at the Charleston, WV newspaper site (can't recall the url off-hand)

edit to add: surfed back to it. Got it from http://www.wvgazette.com/News/politics and then clicked a blog roll link that said "senate, house, and wv supreme court results"

[SirFozzie]

Blumenthal wins in CT.

In the MA Gov race (which directly affects me, 20% in, and Deval Patrick leads Charlie Baker 49-41% (Tim Cahill, Independent with 8% and a Green-Rainbow party candidate with 1%)

[SirFozzie]

And we won't have Christine O'Donnell to kick around any more, Chris Coons has been declared the winner in DE by the AP.

Martha Coakley, who you may remember as the person who threw away 40 years of Kennedy legacy in the Senate against Scott Brown, wins re-election as Mass Attorney General.

[DanGarion]

I'm planning on submitting a proposition in my state to ban political robocalls.

20 Calls from recordings in two days is ridiculous.