Any reason why this guy would NOT be a stud pass-rusher?

[aston217]

Disclaimer: this is not a study.

Just something I saw in my SP game that made me wonder, if anyone has any theories or maybe even similar experiences.

So there's this guy: Lawrence Farmer.



Initial TC numbers: 21/45->26/48 (+5/+3). 52/52 now, 6th year, 5'10-231, all-around stud that was the starting SILB for many seasons, before a move to WB to take advantage of those monster bars. 100 PRS, 72 PRT? I'm thinking sack machine...

But it was a humble 4-sack, 17-hurry, 5.2 PRPCT% year.

Then there's this guy: Benjamin Nowakowski



6'4-256. Initial TC: 11/28->14/32 (+3/+4). Mostly a SLB. Farmer's 2nd year as a WLB wasn't going well, so I made the switch mid-year. Even though this guy was 80 PRS/66 PRT only, I thought it'd be more valuable for my better linebacker overall to be at SLB.

Surprise! Nowakowski did worlds better.

Farmer's PRPCT as WLB in 6 games: 9.7, 4.4, 5.0, 3.6, 2.2, 3.0. 3.5 sacks, 0 blocks 6 hurries, 5 knockdowns.

Nowakowski after taking over, 10 games: 12.9, 4.2, 10.0, 11.8, 11.8, 6.9, 13.2, 8.3, 3.0, 11.9. 6.5 sacks, 4 blocks, 20 hurries, 10 knockdowns.

It just doesn't make much sense to me. I know it's a small sample size which is why I said this isn't a study, but this was a world of difference immediately right after the switch, and a younger guy that should have been a monster 3-4 pass rusher not making much of a dent in two seasons on the job.

[nickelback]

Endurance, endurance, endurance

[aston217]

64 vs 44, though?

I thought that 0 endurance corresponded to roughly 50% of the plays, and 100 to almost every play. On that scale, the difference between 64 and 44 shouldn't be very much. His advantage in skill is much greater.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by aston217

His advantage in skill is much greater.

72 vs 66 technique is not THAT much greater, and I don't know how much the 100 vs 80 at strength is going to matter to an edge-rushing WLB who isn't trying to go up against big O-Linemen that often.

[Julio Riddols]

Maybe height and weight? I seem to have more success with WLBs who have some size.

[revrew]

Are you running a 4-3 or a 3-4? And are the LBs starting at SLB and WLB?

In the 3-4, the WLB is the primary pass-rusher, so an average guy there would outrush a stud at SLB.

Also, are you rushing inside or outside? Pass rush strength correlates to rushing inside, while skill to outside. So if you're sending that SLB around the outside all the time, his rush strength bar becomes meaningless.

Finally, bars do not always equal skill. Some players are simply overrated, others underrated.

[imdashep]

I think he answered some of those questions.....

[aston217]

My bad for not mentioning earlier. I run a 3-4, and I gave both of these guys a shot over the course of the past season (or 2) at playing WLB in the hopes that they would turn in great performances.

* Do WLBs rush inside or outside, or both? If they are exclusively rushing outside, then I guess PRT carries a lot more weight than PRS. Is there more of a consensus on that thought than I realized? - that PRT is most important for WLB, much over PRS?

* With regards to "72 over 66 isn't that much greater"...it's true. Although I think I should note that Farmer's 72 is creeping upwards (cut test gets him +1 to 73 PRT, and +1 to 45 endurance, as well as a +1 overall to 53/53). Nowakowski's cut test also gets him +1 overall to 44/44, but his PRT and Endurance both hold steady at 66 and 64.

* Also regarding endurance, I figured the PRPCT would neutralize even more the difference in # of plays on the field. Maybe I'm wrong about that stat, but I thought the point of it was to weigh it against the plays a guy is out there, so that a guy who gets 3 sacks in 250 plays isn't looked at the same as a guy who gets 3 in 100.

Maybe height and weight? I seem to have more success with WLBs who have some size.

Thought about this as well, didn't have a good feel for it though. Anecdotally, a 5'10-237 guy tore it up for me for 5 straight years. Subramanian in the OSFL has also had a solid-to-good 3-year run as WLB, and he's 6'1-226. Neither of these guys are better than Farmer in their pass rush ratings. So I would be surprised if Farmer's size counted against him.

Some players are simply overrated, others underrated.

I'm thinking this could well be the case. Something that makes this game fun and interesting. A guy that absolutely looks superior, with no tells that he wouldn't be a good option here until you try him out for a season and a half and the results are nowhere to be seen. If this is the case, their true ratings have to be a fairly significant departure from their current ones.

It's just that Farmer seemed like a complete stud coming out of the draft, has been creeping up his entire career, and it's just very surprising that with his skills profile, he wouldn't be a monster pass rusher. I mean, as mentioned, his PRT and endurance are both still climbing. I just may turn this into a study

What I'm putting out there in this thread is that with these two players, it seems that one of them is fundamentally a better 3-4 pass rushing WLB than the other. But where's the tell for that?

[ozias]

Your sample size is way to small to tell why there's a slight difference between them.

You mentioned Farmer got 3.5 sacks in 6 games, and Nowakowski had 6.5 in 10 games. That alone amounts to Farmer getting .583 sacks per game, and Nowakowski getting .650 sacks per game. Not really a big difference there, and you don't know whether or not Farmer may have gotten more than the .583 sacks per game, if he played 10 games as well. All it would of taken is ONE game of 2 or 3 sacks, and his numbers would mirror Nowakowski's.

Now you have to ask, what kind of game plan did they play against. Did Farmer face a teams that ran more than they passed? Were you winning handily, so those teams threw the ball more, creating more opportunities for Nowakowski to get a sack?

Time of possession can make a difference here as well. If your team had the ball 35-40 minutes per game when Farmer was playing, it would mean he has less time on the field than did Nowakowski.

The one way to figure it out, would be to run the season through 10 or more times(save & reload), have Farmer play, and write down his stats at the end of each season, then do the same for Nowakowski. Now add up the numbers and compare them. You can turn injuries off to avoid losing them for the test.
Now 10 may not be a large enough sample size, but it should give you a decent comparison.

You can note how well your team finishes each season as well, just to see if your record matches up well with both players. If one player causes you to get 2-3 wins more per season, I'd play that player regardless of the stats.

[aston217]

Not really about the sacks, so much as the PRPCT. Farmer has very few hurries, for example. And, he did have a whole season's worth of mediocre pass rush before this.

I do realize the sample size is small, but the difference jumped out at me. I may just re-run the season a number of times and compare the results.

[Steel]

Too small a sample size, but I would say size and endurance are the two factors.

[NiteMaestro]

Didn't check the whole thread (time pressed)
But one thing that would be concerning for me is height/weight.

Unless you're running a 3-4. and even then... He's kinda small.

A passrusher would, IMO, be at least 6'2", and over 240, he's going against OT's constantly, and those guys are manbeastdemoninhumanthings. Height is important to because passrushers should also be tall enough to bat down passes or force a qb to 'reset' his feet. 5'10" is a good deal too sort to do that with any sort of regularity... Unless he's got NBA caliber hops. :P