NBA Draft Lottery/Offseason Thread 2012

[stevew]

The 2012 NBA draft lottery will be broadcast at 8 p.m. on ESPN.
Dunno if this will format right.

Irving/Davis would be a great combo. Hopefully Stern fixes the lotto again. Tbh, I'm happy as long as Charlotte and Golden State both lose.

*	No. of	1st	2nd	3rd	Any top
Team	Combos	pick	pick	pick	3 pick
Charlotte	250	25.00%	21.47%	17.72%	64.19%
Washington	199	19.90%	18.78%	17.06%	55.74%
Cleveland	138	13.80%	14.24%	14.53%	42.57%
New Orleans	137	13.70%	14.16%	14.47%	42.33%
Sacramento	76	7.60%	8.44%	 9.46%	25.50%
Brooklyn*	75	7.50%	8.33%	 9.36%	25.19%
Golden St.**	36	3.60%	4.16%	 4.90%	12.66%
Toronto	35	3.50%	4.05%	 4.77%	12.32%
Detroit	17	1.70%	2.00%	 2.40%	6.10%
New Orleans	11	1.10%	1.30%	 1.57%	3.97%
Portland	8	0.80%	0.95%	 1.15%	2.90%
Milwaukee	7	0.70%	0.83%	 1.01%	2.54%
Phoenix	6	0.60%	0.71%	 0.87%	2.18%
Houston	5	0.50%	0.59%	 0.72%	1.81%

* Pick may be conveyed to Portland

** Pick may be conveyed to Utah via Brooklyn

[Simbo Klice]

Would like to see my Rockets defy the odds and get Davis. Then again, I guess any team with lottery balls is saying that exact thing.

[Danny]

New Orleans #1, #2, or is the team sold already?

[Groundhog]

If Hornets win the lottery, we'll know that was the sweetner to get them sold. Would be over the moon if Cavs go #1 and get Davis, but if not I'll be happy with Kidd-Gilchrist or Beal. Definitely hoping we don't wind up with Drummond...... I'd rather take a chance on Robinson or Sullinger who have shown NBA ability.

[mckerney]

New Orleans is a lock to get the first pick. Timberwolves have almost always moved down in the lottery, it will be fitting that the first time they win it someone else owns the pick.

[miami_fan]

NBA Draft 2012: A Conspiracy Theorists' Guide to the Lottery | Bleacher Report

Making sure they cover all the bases.

[stevew]

i gather the bleacher report isn't big on proofreading?

[MikeVic]

What is the class like this year? I know Davis is consensus #1, but is there a strong top 5? Or something like after the first 3, the next 10 are kind of similar in terms of talent?

I'm just wondering what to root for with the Raptors. 12% change of a top 3 pick isn't high, so does it matter where they fall after that?

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by stevew

The 2012 NBA draft lottery will be broadcast at 8 p.m. on ESPN.
Dunno if this will format right.

Irving/Davis would be a great combo. Hopefully Stern fixes the lotto again. Tbh, I'm happy as long as Charlotte and Golden State both lose.

*	No. of	1st	2nd	3rd	Any top
Team	Combos	pick	pick	pick	3 pick
Charlotte	250	25.00%	21.47%	17.72%	64.19%
Washington	199	19.90%	18.78%	17.06%	55.74%
Cleveland	138	13.80%	14.24%	14.53%	42.57%
New Orleans	137	13.70%	14.16%	14.47%	42.33%
Sacramento	76	7.60%	8.44%	 9.46%	25.50%
Brooklyn*	75	7.50%	8.33%	 9.36%	25.19%
Golden St.**	36	3.60%	4.16%	 4.90%	12.66%
Toronto	35	3.50%	4.05%	 4.77%	12.32%
Detroit	17	1.70%	2.00%	 2.40%	6.10%
New Orleans	11	1.10%	1.30%	 1.57%	3.97%
Portland	8	0.80%	0.95%	 1.15%	2.90%
Milwaukee	7	0.70%	0.83%	 1.01%	2.54%
Phoenix	6	0.60%	0.71%	 0.87%	2.18%
Houston	5	0.50%	0.59%	 0.72%	1.81%

* Pick may be conveyed to Portland

** Pick may be conveyed to Utah via Brooklyn

Non-rigged chances:

Charlotte/NO = 99% chance.
Everyone else = 1%

[Chief Rum]

I feel out of sorts with reality. I don't understand. I keep looking at the lottery team list, looking for my Clippers and they aren't there. I don't get it. Confused. I am going to have think about this one.

[stevew]

Well, the Clippers won last year. Don't get greedy.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

What is the class like this year? I know Davis is consensus #1, but is there a strong top 5? Or something like after the first 3, the next 10 are kind of similar in terms of talent?

I'm just wondering what to root for with the Raptors. 12% change of a top 3 pick isn't high, so does it matter where they fall after that?

After Davis, it's still pretty agreed that it's stronger than last year top-to-bottom. Kidd-Gilchrist and Thomas Robinson out of Kansas are considered to be solid bets and Andre Drummond is a Center who is a boom-bust type. You have Bradley Beal from Florida and Doc Rivers' kid Austin at SG. In my eyes, PG is probably the only position that was better/deeper last year.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I feel out of sorts with reality. I don't understand. I keep looking at the lottery team list, looking for my Clippers and they aren't there. I don't get it. Confused. I am going to have think about this one.

I'm still expecting the Clippers to win the lottery somehow.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by stevew

Well, the Clippers won last year. Don't get greedy.

Heh. You're welcome!

[whomario]

oh so many conspiracies to choose from Cavs getting paid pack for the painfull decicion ? Brooklyn getting a head start ? Houston getting compensated for the revoked trade ? New Orleans getting favoured as the NBAs team ? The Maloofs getting thrown a bone in Sacramento ?

No idea who i´d like to have that pick. So many shitty teams and terrible management on display there. Maybe Toronto ... (getting Valanciunas and Davis to play next to Bragnani, that would be one of the more interesting Front Courts in the league)

[LloydLungs]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

Non-rigged chances:

Charlotte/NO = 99% chance.
Everyone else = 1%

If my Hornets DON'T win the lottery, it means Stern rigged it against them because he knows everyone will think he rigged it for them if they win.

That made me dizzy.

[Neuqua]

lol

[Jas_lov]

They should just do it live to remove any doubt of riggage. Just put all the balls in a popper and pull them out live. This is just too shady.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

They should just do it live to remove any doubt of riggage. Just put all the balls in a popper and pull them out live. This is just too shady.

Yeah, it'd be more watchable that way, that's for sure.

Here's the lottery order:

1. Hornets
2. Bobcats
3. Wizards
4. Cleveland
5. Sacramento
6. Portland (from Brooklyn)
7. Golden State
8. Toronto
9. Detroit
10. New Orleans
11. Portland
12. Milwaukee
13. Phoenix

[stevew]

Either the WizTards or the BobCraps will take Andre Drummond. That should leave MKG, Robinson or Beal for the Cavs. I can deal with that.

Steep price for Gerald Wallace, that's for sure.

[larrymcg421]

I would not watch a league that was as rigged as people make the NBA out to be.

If it is rigged, then Stern is an idiot. The financial benefits are questionable at best and he's risking the entire foundation of the league.

How much do you think Stern is paying the guy who runs the lottery or the head of officials? It would have to be alot, because if I was either of those guys I would own his ass and anytime he said no I'd go straight to the media.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

They should just do it live to remove any doubt of riggage. Just put all the balls in a popper and pull them out live. This is just too shady.

This is the genesis of the draft lottery conspiracy. See Ewing, Patrick + 1985
+ cold envelope.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

They should just do it live to remove any doubt of riggage. Just put all the balls in a popper and pull them out live. This is just too shady.

Even if I don't quite buy into the rigged aspect, I was shaking my head as soon as I saw who won. Somebody needs to ask Stern why there isn't a live lottery during an interview.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

This is the genesis of the draft lottery conspiracy. See Ewing, Patrick + 1985
+ cold envelope.

Common sense could solve this though. Do it in front of a live audience. Pick an audience member at random out of the crowd and let them pick the balls out of the hopper.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by stevew

Either the WizTards or the BobCraps will take Andre Drummond. That should leave MKG, Robinson or Beal for the Cavs. I can deal with that.

Steep price for Gerald Wallace, that's for sure.

I'm pretty sure the Wiz would take both Beal and MKG over Drummond. At least I hope.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

Non-rigged chances:

Charlotte/NO = 99% chance.
Everyone else = 1%

AHHHH HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[larrymcg421]

None of that would stop the accusations of rigging. There's absolutely nothing Stern could've done that would've convinced people that New Orleans was legitimately picked. If a random person drew balls then there'd still be the tinfoil hat crowd claiming the balls were situated in a way to guarantee the team would be picked, or that the person wasn't really random and is obviously on the NBA payroll.

Despite having the 4th best chance at the #1 pick and a 13% chance, it was impossible for New Orleans to legitimately win the #1 pick this year in the minds of some people.

[stevew]

I probably wouldn't have a problem if the Hornets were promised the #1 pick as part of the sale. But I hate that they fix stuff on the down low and then pretend like these were legitimate results. Stern is gonns be taking a lot of secrets to the grave.

(do I have to *wink*)

[stevew]

Also fairly certain that by virtue of winning the tiebreaker flip, the Hornets got the winning number combos that would have gone to the Cavs(if they lost).

[stevew]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'm pretty sure the Wiz would take both Beal and MKG over Drummond. At least I hope.

Well, the good news is that MJ gets the opportunity to make a bad decision first.


MKG just got put in the worst case scenerio for his talents.

[stevew]

Dola-
Walker, Kidd Gilchrist, Henderson and Biyombo make for a hopeless core.

[RainMaker]

Mentioned this in the other thread, the Paul deal looks absolutely great right now. What a bright future that franchise has.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Common sense could solve this though. Do it in front of a live audience. Pick an audience member at random out of the crowd and let them pick the balls out of the hopper.

For a conspiracy theorist, that would be like the "random" audience member at the wrestling event.

I welcome any other ideas though.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Mentioned this in the other thread, the Paul deal looks absolutely great right now. What a bright future that franchise has.

Why? They got the #10 pick, Kaman, some dude with 3 names that barely plays, and will have to likely match a max offer for Eric Gordon.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by stevew

Why? They got the #10 pick, Kaman, some dude with 3 names that barely plays, and will have to likely match a max offer for Eric Gordon.

But they wouldn't have been in a position to get the #1 pick without tanking the whole year sans Paul.

[molson]

Isn't there an outside firm that authenticates the lottery procedure, and I think there's also representatives from every team in there when the numbers are drawn. Stern would have to bribe hundreds of people big money to rig a lottery, let alone a game. I don't see the advantage for the risk. Pretty much every franchise has had their turn as "team with high draft pick and promising future", it's not that unusual a scenario.

[stevew]

The Nets owner owns the security firm.

[molson]

Originally Posted by stevew

The Nets owner owns the security firm.

So he's in on it, and the owner, and the firm, all get together and decide whose's going to win the lottery every year? That's just a dumb idea. How much better off is the NBA for having picked the lottery winners every year? How much money does that make them? Why risk a life in prison for that if ONE guy gets into any kind of legal trouble and decides to bargain this info.

Edit: And wait a minute, Mikhail Prokhorov owns Ernst & Young? I don't believe that's true. How much do you have to pay the 8th largest private company in the U.S. to go along with your scam?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by stevew

Why? They got the #10 pick, Kaman, some dude with 3 names that barely plays, and will have to likely match a max offer for Eric Gordon.

What would the alternatives?

No trade - 1st round exit and lose Paul next year with a mediocre draft pick coming
Lakers - Late lottery pick and a couple old veterans on big deals
Clippers - Anthony Davis, Eric Gordon, 10th pick, and cap room

Where would you rather be? For one season of Chris Paul, they acquired the 10th pick in the draft and the best young SG in the league. It also allowed them to tank and get the #1 pick. You can't tell me they would be in a better position with those other deals.

[RainMaker]

They let some members of the press and a representative of each team in to the room to watch the procedure. Would take some incredible slight of hand to pull that off consistently.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by molson

Edit: And wait a minute, Mikhail Prokhorov owns Ernst & Young? I don't believe that's true. How much do you have to pay the 8th largest private company in the U.S. to go along with your scam?

Not the point of this thread, but I couldn't resist answering this.

Ask Enron and Arthur Andersen.

[molson]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Not the point of this thread, but I couldn't resist answering this.

Ask Enron and Arthur Andersen.

Sure, large corporations can and have done horrible things, but this is just a straight-up singular offer of deception that doesn't make sense from either side's perspective. I think the moral decline of those companies is a much more complicated process than that. I don't think Stern would call up Kenneth Lay and say, "hey buddy, how much for you to rig the NBA draft lottery, I want the Hornets to win", and Lay says, "oh, half a billion in cash will be good", and then it just happens. Maybe I'm naive, but that just seems like crazy talk. It's just a different kettle of fish than making a bunch of false statements in SEC disclosures and hoping business turns around and you won't get caught. Is the NBA that much better off, as a league, at this moment, then they'd be if the Brooklyn Nets won instead? I'm sure we'd still be talking conspiracies if that happened.

[DaddyTorgo]

Why won't my noscript pick up the surfcanyon link to arthur andersen in my post above...wtf?

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

if you google 'ping pong lottery+fixed' there are a zillion responses talking about how easy they are to fix.

[Shkspr]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Why won't my noscript pick up the surfcanyon link to arthur andersen in my post above...wtf?

Noscript is rigged.

[RainMaker]

I think rigging the lottery would be almost impossible and would piss off a lot of teams. Not to mention the massive amounts of lawsuits. However, the league has done shady stuff in the past and will always have a cloud of suspicion over everything they do regardless of whether it's legit or not.

[larrymcg421]

And the amount that you would have to pay a company to do that would certainly be more than the financial advantage you get by fixing it.

And the question I always have, just like with the finals accusations, is what is the explanation for past events. They rigged Lakers/Kings, Mavs/Heat and Lakers/Celtics, but their decisions not to rig many other series make absolutely no sense.

Similarly, if this year is evidence theyre rigging the lottery, then what's the explanation for many other years they apparently didnt rig the lottery. They really wanted Portland and Seattle to win the lottery that year and let the most storied franchise/huge market Boston Celtics fall from 2nd to 5th?

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

i tend to believe where there's smoke there's fire. how much fire? who knows.

i defy anyone to watch that ewing draft and claim strangeness wasn't afoot.

[Simbo Klice]

I get why the NBA needs a lottery, but do it live. This is ridiculous.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

And the amount that you would have to pay a company to do that would certainly be more than the financial advantage you get by fixing it.

And the question I always have, just like with the finals accusations, is what is the explanation for past events. They rigged Lakers/Kings, Mavs/Heat and Lakers/Celtics, but their decisions not to rig many other series make absolutely no sense.

Similarly, if this year is evidence theyre rigging the lottery, then what's the explanation for many other years they apparently didnt rig the lottery. They really wanted Portland and Seattle to win the lottery that year and let the most storied franchise/huge market Boston Celtics fall from 2nd to 5th?

I don't think they rig the lottery. But the league has showed a bias toward players and teams. Doesn't mean they are fixing games in the general sense, but favoring individuals does effect the results. So those conspiracy theories will always be there as long as they do that (even in legitimate areas). There is a reason why you don't see people saying this stuff about other major sports. They are officiated much more evenly.