Election 2012 Prediction Pool

[larrymcg421]

This looks to be a really close and exciting election, so I thought it'd be fun to do a prediction contest. Here are the ground rules:

Presidential Election (Popular) - You get 10 pts for predicting the winner of the popular vote.

Presidential Election (States) - You get 5 pts for each state you get correct. To make it easy, you can list McCain states Obama will win and Obama states Romney will win. Anything you don't list will be assumed you're predicting it will fall the same way as in 2008.

Senate - 3 points for each state you get correct. Once again, you can list states that will switch parties. Anything you don't list will be assumed you're predicting the same party will hold the seat.

House - How many seats will either party gain. You lose a point for every seat you're off. (Ex: If you predict GOP +1 and the Dems pick up 5 seats, you lose 6 pts.)

Notes:

*You can change your predictions later, but last change is due at November 6, 7pm EST.

*You don't need to list CT as a seat change if you think the Dem will win it, only if you think the R will win it.

[Chief Rum]

Heh... seems fun. I'll put something together.

[sterlingice]

DISCLAIMER: Must have at least one pick different than 538s model to qualify or else you're that jackass in the office who just picks chalk at the NCAA tourney (and you will tie with like 15 other people).

SI

[stevew]

Seems like it would be easier to list the swing states and competitive house/Senate seats

Maybe we could do like 15-20 things and then assign a weight(1-5) to each outcome.

[panerd]

Before or after the Trump announcement?

[britrock88]

Presidential Election
(2012 != 2008) -- all to Romney

Florida
Indiana
Nebraska #2
North Carolina

Popular Vote: Obama

Senate
(2012 != 2008)

Connecticut (I->D)
Indiana (D->R)
Maine (R->I)
Massachusetts (R->D)
Montana (D->R)
Nebraska (D->R)
North Dakota (D->R)

House
Democrats +4

Also, bonus points for the time between the predictions and the election?

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by stevew

Seems like it would be easier to list the swing states and competitive house/Senate seats

Maybe we could do like 15-20 things and then assign a weight(1-5) to each outcome.

Actually I think this way is easier, because then you only have to pick seats/states that will change instead of listing a winner for every tossup.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Presidential Election
(2012 != 2008) -- all to Romney

Colorado
Florida
Indiana
North Carolina
Virginia

Senate
(2012 != 2008)

Connecticut (I->D)
Maine (R->I)
Massachusetts (R->D)
Montana (D->R)
Nebraska (D->R)
North Dakota (D->R)

House
Democrats +2

Also, bonus points for the time between the predictions and the election?

No, but you can change your predictions anytime between now and Nov. 5, 1159pm.

Also, I'll put this in the first post, but you don't need to list CT as a seat change if you think the Dem will win it, only if you think the R will win it.

However, Maine does need to be listed if you think King will win as he is expected to caucus with Dems.

[RPI-Fan]

Prez -- Blue-to-Red:

(1) Indiana
(2) NE-CD2
(3) Florida
(4) North Carolina

Prez -- Popular Vote: Obama +1.9

Senate -- Blue-to-Red:

(1) Fischer
(2) Berg

Senate -- Red-to-Blue:

(1) King
(2) Warren
(3) Donnelly

House:

Dems +8

[Solecismic]

Final... I hope this isn't exactly any major predictor's table. Unless you think there's a major shift from the polling, there isn't all that much in play right now.

*** = change in party

President (close states and states where a change is still possible):

Obama (303)

Colorado
Iowa
New Hampshire
Ohio
Virginia
Wisconsin

Romney (235)

Florida ***
Indiana ***
North Carolina ***
Nebraska/Omaha CD ***

Popular Vote: Romney (by less than a million)

Senate

Democrats (54-46, essentially +1)

Arizona: Flake (R)
Connecticut: Murphy (D) *** (from I)
Indiana: Donnelly (D) ***
Maine: King (I) ***
Massachusetts: Warren (D) ***
Missouri: McCaskill (D)
Montana: Tester (D)
Nebraska: Fischer (R) ***
Nevada: Heller (R)
North Dakota: Berg (R) ***
Pennsylvania: Casey (D)
Virginia: Kaine (D)
Wisconsin: Baldwin (D)

House:

Democrats +6

[larrymcg421]

I added an extra pick for predicting the popular vote. That will count for 10 pts. If you've already picked, make sure you add that.

Don't forget, you can list whatever states you want in your predictions, but any states you do not list it will be assumed you're predicting the same party holds the seat.

[Scarecrow]

CNN 2012 Electoral Map -- Elections & Politics from CNN.com

yes I think it will end in a tie...

[Young Drachma]

Lots of scenarios here, but I went with the most plausible in my mind. Not so much playing as much as chiming in to see how far off my guestimations were based on nothing but gut and randomness. Well and all of the signs on I-25 against Obama. If that sentiment is any indication, no way he wins Colorado again. Even though there's quite the ground game in Denver from what I'd seen too. So there's both sides...

[larrymcg421]

Popular Vote: Obama

Obama picks up no McCain states, but holds on to VA, OH, CO, and NV
Romney picks up IN, FL, NC, and the NE-2nd

Senate Seats

Dems pick up ME, IN, MA
GOP picks up ND, NE

House

Dem +10

[larrymcg421]

bump

[larrymcg421]

bump

[albionmoonlight]

Popular Vote: President Obama

Electoral College: Same as 2008, except Romney picks up IN and NE2

Senate: Dems pick up ME, IN, MA. GOP picks up ND, NE.

HOuse: DEM +12

[larrymcg421]

Anyone else want in here? I'll accept entries (and changes) until 7pm EST when the first polls close.

[sterlingice]

Popular Vote: Obama

States: Obama 303-235
Romney Pickups: NE2, FL, NC, IN
Obama Pickups: None
Iowa hardest to call for me. I just don't think there are that many states in play- the electoral map was always against Romney and I don't see much of a path to victory for him. If Obama gets Florida in the first hour, it's pretty much over for the night and it's time to start looking at who might control the House as the Senate has already been locked up by the Dems. I realize that's more simplistic than how these things work, particularly since I think the Senate is still more about candidates than party, but I think it shows where our polling trends erred this year.

Here's my projected map. CNN does make it pretty easy to post
CNN 2012 Electoral Map -- Elections & Politics from CNN.com

Senate:
IN (R->D)
ME (R->I)
MA (R->D)
MT (D->R)
ND (D->R)
NE (D->R)

Remains R: AZ, MS, NV, TN, TX, UT, WY
Remains D: CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, MD, MI, MN, MO, NJ, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, "VT", WA, WI, WV

There are the obvious close ones but Nebraska I'm kindof curious about. Former governor Bob Kerrey ran against a Tea Party candidate in fairly red state with very little polling. I think this will be in <5 point race and I'm basing that on absolutely nothing. Montana and North Dakota are close but I just don't see a Dem winning either. And if you want my dark horse that could flip GOP, I think it's Wisconsin as the polls are really tight and I think the Dems assume they have it in the bag (as much as you assume anything with close races).

House: Complete shot in the dark; Dem +5

There's the narrative that we're starting to get more and more frequent wave elections. However, incumbents are largely insulated in anything but a wave election so I don't see a lot changing hands. Each probably picks up less than 10% of the other party's seats but not a whole lot changes hands in the aggregate.

SI

[Butter]

Presidential Election (Popular) - Obama

Presidential Election (States) -
Obama gains none.

Romney gains Nebraska 2, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana.

Senate -
Dems will flip:
IN, MA

Ind. will flip ME.

GOP will flip:
NE, MT, ND

House - Dems +8.

[kcchief19]

Presidential Election (Popular) - Obama

Presidential Election (States) - Romney picks up Indiana, North Carolina and Nebraska 2nd

Senate - Dems pick up Connecticut, Indiana and Massachusetts. Republicans pick up Nebraska and North Dakota. Independent picks up Maine.

House - D +8

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Prez -- Blue-to-Red:

(1) Indiana
(2) NE-CD2
(3) Florida
(4) North Carolina

Prez -- Popular Vote: Obama +1.9

Senate -- Blue-to-Red:

(1) Fischer
(2) Berg

Senate -- Red-to-Blue:

(1) King
(2) Warren
(3) Donnelly

House:

Dems +8

I'm pretty pleased with my predictions. Looks like the House will be +8 or +9. Missed only on Florida in the prez (and had the popular vote just about dead-on). In the Senate, missed only on Heitkamp (who I went back and forth on -- what a great race she ran), but got Tester, Heller, and Flake right.

[kcchief19]

Looks like our predictions were very similar. My only miss is Berg. The Senate race I was least confident in was Tester, but that was never really in doubt.

Amazing how close the aggregate polls were. Really only challenges were the coin flips with Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina.

[sterlingice]

Now let's all go become pundits!

SI

[larrymcg421]

Waiting on final calls for stuff before tallying, but it seems like a clear edge to kccheif. He got the Pres. election exactly and only missed one Senate seat. Since no one was perfect on the Senate, that gives him a 5 pt. edge before we get to the House tally, which looks like he may have got perfect.