Why I am unsure drafting QBs

[Yoda]

I've posted before about my QB in the CCFL- Gus Gottman. He's a 37/37 QB that puts up pretty good numbers.

Here were his combines when I drafted him:


And here are his current bars (as I see them):


After 6 seasons, he is #1 all time in completion percentage in the CCFL and #5 all time in QB rating.

Was he a bust? Is he just masked? Is timing now that important in FoF? Is it because he has had a 60 and a 50 rated WR to throw to his whole career?

Thoughts?

[Sharkn20]

This is just what I think... is it the system?? Short passing routes combined with a good supporting cast?? His hide interception risk correlates with that combine? I just drafted a similar player in the CFL and he played a nice rookie season with 25/38 rating, 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

In the FFL the Jets had a similar game manager playing amazing football as well... So is not all about the ratings, is all about the system and supporting cast?

I might say yes...

[Ben E Lou]

I suspect that it's a combination of the short passing and the low number of passes. Checking something....

[Dawgfan19]

Dean Baruffi is the QB in the FFL Shark is referring to. He has accuracy and timing bars around 80 (with only a 15 SR, BTW). He has had QB ratings of 91.0, 95.4 and 92.5. Interesting that Baruffi was not on the team one season, so I plugged in Stephen Horner (accuracy 50-ish, timing 70-ish, SR below 15). He led the league in QBR with 98.3. Both QBs had overall ratings on the low 40s.

The keys appear to be:

Solid receivers (couple of WRs around 60, TE in the 70s)
Excellent o-line, especially the interior linemen
Great run game
The timing and perhaps accuracy bars appear to be important
A good avoid INT QB is critical
A system focused on ball control

So, I'd agree the supporting case and a good game plan where the QB is basically a game manager can be very effective.

[Dawgfan19]

And I almost forgot - 3 triple affinities at QB and 4 or 5 at WR probably helped.

[Ben E Lou]

For reference for those not in the CCFL: http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/...playerid=27504

KC's rushing attempts during his career:

2039: 649 (1st)
2040: 523 (8th)
2041: 630 (1st)
2042: 544 (3rd)
2043: 538 (5th)
2044: 510 (5th)

Overall during his career, his team has run the ball more than any other team in the league. There's no masking of significance here, and it's nothing new. It's why the PAV and Insomnia type game plans work: run a lot, and you can pass well. KC is running more than anyone else, and (just checked GP analyzer) is running a significant amount on 3rd down and passing a lot more on first down than expected (39.2% in the first half), so the stats look better on that front because fewer than normal are being thrown against pass aggressive/nickel/dime/etc. defenses. And yeah, Yoda's also throwing significantly shorter than average.

Screen: 18.5%
0-4: 6.4%
5-8: 41.5%
9-12: 25.3%
13-18: 15.8%
19-26: 5.1%
27-39: 2.7%
40+: 2.1%

KC this year also has the third best passing cohesion in the league. So lots of running + lots of successful running + great cohesion + short passing + good receivers + gameplan designed to avoid nickel/dime/pass aggressive + mediocre QB = high completion percentages. I don't see anything to be concerned about from an engine perspective, nor do I see anything to marvel over from a "shockingly successful player" perspective. When he's forced to throw, even with all the other factors still working for him, he has been just a little above mediocre, with an 80.3 QB rating in games where he attempts 30 or more passes. But in games where he throws less than 25 passes, he's got a 103.0 career rating.

[Yoda]

Thanks.

I was just wondering- so, compared to where I drafted him / his combines, is he a bust (base off overall) or do I just suck at drafting QBs?

Trying to figure it out. I greatly appreciate the input.

[MIJB#19]

Probably unrelated; based on the overall picture of the player, I'm puzzled that this player is '37/37'. The bars suggest that he should be graded about 47/47 or so.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Yoda

I was just wondering- so, compared to where I drafted him / his combines, is he a bust (base off overall) or do I just suck at drafting QBs?

I don't think you necessarily suck at drafting, and I'm not sure how we're defining "bust" in FOF7. One thing we DO know is that there seem to be more "workout warrior" types with nice combines who don't become the kind of player we would have expected in FOF2K7. I'm putting him firmly in that category. He gained 5 current in his first camp. That's not your standard VSOD type "bust." Those guys lose current rating, too. More evidence that this wasn't VSOD is that his Sense Rush and Scramble Frequency bars have barely moved at any point, even though we've had four different league scouts (one surprisingly good one). He just wasn't a good QB, and without having my draft_personal file from that season (I'm saving them now, but wasn't then,) I don't know if there was anything in the bars that would have indicated "do not draft in the first round."

Bottom line: I think with the game plan you're using and the team you have, any QB rated in the 35-40 range would have similar output as Gottman. The phrase "game manager" has been tossed around in this thread by others a few times, and I agree wholeheartedly. With as much as you run, you're not asking the QB to win games as much as not lose games.

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Probably unrelated; based on the overall picture of the player, I'm puzzled that this player is '37/37'. The bars suggest that he should be graded about 47/47 or so.

I've commented on this type of player before, and for some reason people have tended to scoff/not buy it, but from having played around with some TCY imports and seen it at work in FOF2K7 and FOF7, I'm certain what's going on there: he has a very low Avoid Interceptions rating, and that number is included in his overall rating.

I happen to have another example of this same thing in the CCFL right now. Here's his player page: http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/...playerid=18269

He's likely going to retire when I do the season rollover ~36 hours from now, so I'll do a screen shot for reference of his bars:



As you can see, most of his key visible bars are in the 50s, and Sense Rush is 80, yet he's only 34/34 overall. That's because his Avoid Interceptions rating is pretty obviously somewhere around 0, and it's a significant factor in the overall rating of a QB.

MIJB, you may remember that I had a similar QB in the old WOOF. I don't recall his name, but he had bars mostly in the 60s and 70s with an overall of around 50 for most of his career.

[Caligari]

I'm going to ask, because I keep seeing these terms and don't fully understand them: what is the Avoid Interceptions rating, and what others are there which are suspected or known to be present (in QBs and other players)?

I assume I can tell what Avoid Interceptions does in the game, but how is it derived, and how do we know it is present? And what other numbers are there which we might want to consider, even if we don't see them?

[Ben E Lou]

The two ratings that were present and viewable in front office football 2004 that were hidden in subsequent versions are "avoid interceptions" and "avoid fumbles". Both can still be imported into draft classes and player files, but they are hidden in the game itself.

[MIJB#19]

Of course, the avoid interceptions bar. I even thought about it and was tempted to ask about his overall number of interceptions, because the overall rating suggests the QB in question should have a horrible Avoid interceptions bar.

[Ben E Lou]

So posting about the ability to import the avoid interceptions and avoid fumbles ratings made me realize that this is easy to test. I altered the default player file to give every QB "8" ratings in all bars except for Avoid Interceptions, where I gave them all a 1. When I did that, every fully developed QB in the league looked something like this:



As you can see, he doesn't have a single bar other than kick holding that is below 74, yet his overall is only 66/66. That's what an extremely low AvInt bar can do to the overall. Now running the whole season just for gits and shiggles...

[Ben E Lou]

Heh. Four QBs had 25 picks on the season.

Also, Drew Brees imported with a 99 in kick holding, all but one visible bar 74 and up. The one visible bar under 74 was a 67 in screen passes. His overall? 61/61.

I suppose on the flip side we can conclude that if we see a QB with a bunch of bars in the 30-40 range and an overall in the upper 40s or so, we can conclude that he'd be an ideal "game manager."

[Wasabiak]

Using the above Jay Cutler example, if his rating is still 66/66 but his bars indicate more of a low 50s rating, could you conclude that his avoid ints rating may be more on the high side?

[Julio Riddols]

Originally Posted by Wasabiak

Using the above Jay Cutler example, if his rating is still 66/66 but his bars indicate more of a low 50s rating, could you conclude that his avoid ints rating may be more on the high side?

Yes. When you see a QB with what look like shitty bars and notice he has an overall that seems way higher than expected given those bars, he is likely pretty safe with the ball. These QB's are pretty nice when operating a run heavy game plan, and they can thrive as a passer too, given a strong supporting cast (IMO).

[Hammer]

So presumably we can use this formula to take a stab at a RBs avoid fumbles?

[aston217]

Yes, exactly!

The only caution is it can be hard to predict what a guy's OVR "should be" based on the visible bars. You might feel one way but you could be way off as well. And different bars have different weights. In the RB example, RBs with little else but high HR and endurance will end up with high OVRs compared to RBs with low bars there but more elsewhere.

[gstelmack]

I have the specific bar weights for overall from a while back. I'll try and post later.

[gstelmack]

I have to see if I still have the actual fractions, but this is what Draft Analyzer uses and is pretty close:

newWeightInput.Attributes[0] = 20; //"Screen Passes (Ag25)",
newWeightInput.Attributes[1] = 19; //"Short Passes",
newWeightInput.Attributes[2] = 22; //"Medium Passes (Bj66)",
newWeightInput.Attributes[3] = 22; //"Long Passes (Bp50)",
newWeightInput.Attributes[4] = 15; //"Deep Passes (Bp50)",
newWeightInput.Attributes[5] = 24; //"Third Down Passing (Bj33)",
newWeightInput.Attributes[6] = 23; //"Accuracy (PD50)",
newWeightInput.Attributes[7] = 0; //"Timing (PD50)",
newWeightInput.Attributes[8] = 8; //"Sense Rush (Ag75)",
newWeightInput.Attributes[9] = 11; //"Read Defense (So10)",
newWeightInput.Attributes[10] = 7; //"Two Minute Offense",
newWeightInput.Attributes[11] = 0; //"Scramble Frequency (Ft85)",
newWeightInput.Attributes[12] = 0; //"Kick Holding"

[aston217]

Oh. Nice!