How To Determine How Long A Player Will Be Injured

[DataKing]

I do not recall seeing anyone else post this information, but please ignore this if it has been written elsewhere.

I am still testing this, but I believe I have figured out how to determine exactly how long a player will be injured. It's actually quite simple, and I am a little disappointed in myself that I did not notice it before.

#1. Look at the player's assessed value directly before the injury.
#2. Look at the player's assessed value the day after the injury.
#3. Log in each day and check the player's assessed value. You will see it gradually rise, and at a steady rate. Figure out how many days it will take the player to reach their old assessed value. That is how long they will be injured.

I think this works alot better for injuries sustained in league matches, because you have four days before training results (and subsequent changes in assessed value) are calculated. For wednesday matches, training results occur the next day, but you should still be able to estimate within a couple of days when a player will be fully recovered.

I am currently testing this system with Chuck Scales, my starting central defender. He was injured (bruised) on Sunday.

#1. Assessed value prior to match: $217,000.
#2. Assessed value on Monday: $199,000.
#3. Assessed value on Tuesday: $202,000.

Chuck is regaining assessed value at $3,000 per day (I hired 1 doctor). If this system works, then he should be fully recovered on Sunday (good timing). We'll see how this works.

If anyone has players with more long-term injuries (2 weeks or more) and has the necessary data, I'd like to ask that you test out this system as well, and see how it works.

Comments and questions are welcome, of course.

[FrogMan]

DK, I don't have any data, but was doing basically the same thing you were when I had my somewhat star central D get a 5 weeks injury. Problem I ran into and I can't understand why, he kep gaining value, to a higher level than he was before the injury. Can't remember, but I think his form was passable before and after he got back from the injury.

I have since sold this player, so I can't tell you more, but he the day before he got injured, he was valued at $133,000 and when he got fully recovered (and when I put him on the market) he was back to $145,000. Weird...

FM

[DataKing]

FrogMan, did you do any stamina training while he was injured? Players do not have to play in a match to receive stamina training, so is it possible he could have gained some stamina (and therefore gained in assessed value) even though he was injured? It doesn't make much sense (I don't think a player with a 5 week injury would be doing much running), but could be an explanation.

[dacman]

Interesting -- I've noticed that value graphs while recovering from injury will go up in basically a straight line so there appears to be some legitimacy to this.

Using HAM, I went back to look at a couple of past injuries and found:

Player  Before  Imm. after   Day 
       Injury     Injury    "healed"
A      $42,000   $31,000   $42,000
B      $68,000   $61,000   $70,000
C     $185,000   $163,000  $186,000 

No doubt about it DK -- looks to be a solid theory.

[DataKing]

If this proves to work, then the next step is to determine how much doctors affect the recovery time, probably best expressed as a percentage.

But I'm probably getting a little ahead of myself.

[FrogMan]

Originally posted by DataKing
FrogMan, did you do any stamina training while he was injured? Players do not have to play in a match to receive stamina training, so is it possible he could have gained some stamina (and therefore gained in assessed value) even though he was injured? It doesn't make much sense (I don't think a player with a 5 week injury would be doing much running), but could be an explanation.

DK, nope. No stamina training. I trained stamina in the offseason and he got injured in the very first league game of the present season... Still unexplained. Where are Scully and Mulder when we need them???

FM

[FrogMan]

dola to say that I agree completely with your theory, DK and I've been follownig the same kind of reasoning to see when I should expect to see my player back in form. Just thought my example was kinda weird...

FM

[Alf]

DK & al, I have HAM and had a couple of players getting 5+ weeks of injuries. I hired 1 permanent doctor now at the club. Will look at this at home. Could see the # of doctors effect !

DK : congrats

[TargetPractice6]

I had a 2 week injury heal in 3 days Ahh the joy of 10 doctors...

[Alf]

10 doctors : $15K in wages... That's nearly my team's wages !