FAAB discussion for my fellow nerds

[panerd]

So I play in an NL only auction draft fantasy baseball league with a very odd variation of FAAB we introduced this year. You can still pick up NL players/minor leaguers off the waiver wire at will but there is a $50 FAAB budget for players that switch leagues from the AL and free agents that sign after the draft (i.e. Greg Holland) Being new to FAAB in general and specifically this variation I was wondering your thoughts on my potential $50 max bid on Holland.

My thought is maybe 10 players will move/sign this entire season worthy of a bid anyways. And even if a Mike Trout type player moves later in the year all other owners would be all in on him as well so my odds are pretty much 1/12 at that point anyways. Is there any use to having any spare money in this format?

On the flip side I'm thinking people will value Holland at about what he would be at the draft ($15-20) and maybe bid $25 so I guess I could get in at $30 but if I get outbid I likely won't get another player of this caliber all season.

I know this is definitely overthinking a simple situation but my love of fantasy sports isn't as much winning as it is winning small situations like this by thinking different than everyone else if that makes any sense. Anyone that has played FAAB and has more insight your thoughts are most appreciated!