AI undervaluing 1st-round draft picks?

[jaredm]

There seems to be an issue with the AI undervaluing future first-round draft picks (and some high-value picks). As a few examples:

I'm in the year 2028 in my current save. The first 9.9 rated prospect, Conner Pagnotti, has been generated in the draft. My team (Miami) is holding the 29th and 30th pick in the first round. Green Bay has the #1 pick and an ok quarterback (career 84 QBR) who can be cut at any time (large contract with no signing bonus). I made an offer for the #1 pick, and they asked for the 29th and 30th picks in this year's draft + my first-rounder next year. This doesn't seem like a sufficient haul for a generational QB pick at the top of the draft.

Based on this, I then looked at New England, the worse team in the game so far (who have picked 5th, 5th, 1st and 5th in the last four drafts). I asked what they wanted for their 1st round pick next year (2029); and they asked for the 5th pick in the 2nd round; 17th pick in the 4th round, and the 33rd pick in the 5th round of the draft. This is a nonsensical trade given their history and that this is a weak collection of picks.

There are other examples where I've offered up a 40-ish rated young player, and teams will ask for the player + a 3rd/4th round pick for a future 1st round pick. This is odd as, historically, teams are usually only willing to give up first round picks for good, established players.

With the exception of this year's Carolina Panthers, teams seem to be on the conservative side in giving up 1st-round picks - as they don't want to risk giving up a really good pick in case they have a bad season. It seems like the AI is using some sort of draft pick value formula where future picks are valued near the middle of the round (?), even for first rounders.

Have others seen this? Could it be fixed?

[jaredm]

And to add to this thread, some more oddities.

In my game, last season the Washington Commanders selected a FS (Darnell Bristow) with the 2nd pick in the draft. In his rookie year, he was selected as the 2027 Defensive Rookie of the Year, has a 69 rating, no injury history - a really good safety. Importantly, he has three years left on his contract - with about $7 million in salary + $24 million in signing bonus left. There is really no reason for Washington to trade him, as they would have to eat the cap hit of $24 million. I inquired what Washington would want for FS Bristow. Their reply:

- 10th pick in the 2nd round of the upcoming draft
- 7th pick in the 5th round of the upcoming draft

...and they'd send me a 7th rounder in 2030.

Why would the AI trade the reigning defensive ROY in this situation? Why trade him at all? He's not a red flag, his attitude is content, health good. And if they had to make the trade, why trade for so little?

[Dutch]

Historically speaking, in SP, once you feel comfortable with the game mechanics you’ll need to implement house rules to keep it interesting.

[NawlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Historically speaking, in SP, once you feel comfortable with the game mechanics you’ll need to implement house rules to keep it interesting.

^^^^^^ This! I have already found that you can take advantage of some things and I have already started limiting myself in certain areas.