Rob's Games of the Week, 19.14 - Division II

[robbgmaier]

The Shaolin Landfills (ML) have clinched a qualification match, barring a ten goal swing in the goal difference, coupled with specific win/loss results.

<pre>
1. Tombstone Titans II.2 39 - 8 30
2. Panther City FC II.1 38 - 20 30
3. Knights of the Apocalypse II.3 38 - 21 28
4. Cyclones II.4 59 - 17 27 </pre>

Game #1
D-II.1
The Smokin’ Joes v. Panther City FC


The Panthers have locked up II.1, and are on the verge of entering the Major Leagues of American Football.
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Game #2
D-II.3 Knights of the Apocalypse (8090) v. Valley Warriors

<pre>
</pre>

Ditto for APOC, although they will require a little help to promote, they are the II.3 champs. In the other two divisions, we have

II.2
<pre>
1. Tombstone Titans 13 39 - 8 30
2. arabia 13 37 - 15 28 </pre>

The D-II. Matches of importance are

The Wolfpack v. Arabia (8214)
Tombstone Titans v. CrazyCoCo (8195)

Arabia will obviously be going all out against already relegated The Wolfpack. A win and a Titans loss will almost certainly mean automatic promotion to the Major League. The Titans play current 4th place team CrazyCoCo. A loss for Crazy probably means a qualification match, as the 5th place team is 1 point behind, and they play the already relegated 8th place team.

The Cyclones have clinched in II.4

ShootingStar v. Cyclones (8104)

Star is currently in 6th place, but that’s a bit deceptive, as they are only 8 points behind the Cyclones. In fact, if they beat the Cyclones, they are all but mathematically assured of finishing in the top half. Since they are playing at home, I would guess that they are going to go all out and try to beat the Cyclones, who will probably PIC in preparation for a Major League qualification match, as they would need a win plus help to get there automatically.

So, an attempt to summarize. A win by either D-II.2 team means that a D-II.2 team will autopromote. If Panther City FC win, they autopromote. If they tie – APOC can autopromote with a win by more than 1 goal, or by a 1 goal win and scoring more goals than Panther FC. A Panther City draw and a 1 goal APOC win with bother teams scoring the same number of goal would leave them both with identical goal difference and goals scored numbers, and the autopromoter would be up to the HT gods. If Panther City loses, they promote with an APOC non-win and a Cyclone non-win. If Panther City loses, APOC promotes with a win.

If neither II.2 team wins....well, you get the idea....

I hope I’ve gotten all this right, feel free to correct me or add to this.

[BillyNYC]

It's a really interesting situation.

If you look at Smokin Joes' ratings today, they're great. They could potentially play spoiler to PCFC....but do they want to? A win and they stay in top 4, a loss and they drop to qual. match perhaps. But presumably with a PIC and a home match, they'd kill whoever they face.

Apoc's said publicly that he's going for the Cup, and the Cup only. No one else in his series is strong enough to overtake him, despite what appears to be continual PICs. Still, he *should* lose next week (assuming a near certain PIC and resting guys for the Cup final).

Which leaves Cyclones. If Apoc loses, and he thinks PCFC might lose too, he'd be well off to play it normal and try to autopromote. Afterall, he lost to Indy last season in qual....and he'd be facing me with really high spirit. It's a tough call.

As for me, am:
-3 points/-11 goals to Slashers.
+3 points/+9 goals to Indy
+3 points/+18 goals to MM.

I can't catch Slashers in goal differential, so 4th is out.
And I can't drop below MM (he's not beating D&D 8-0....), so I have 5th or 6th. I almost get to "pick" which I want. Could play all scrubs and get killed by Indy, or play some starters and go defensive and lose by less than 5-0. So what I do depends on who I'd rather play and such.

But of course, with all the II scenarios, I have no freakin idea who the two qual. match teams will be, and who would be top and bottom. So "choosing" 5th or 6th is useless.

I feel bad for Minute Men. He has a very good team, and had some bad luck (including his 2nd match against me) and will almost certainly be relegated. I obviously HAVE to PIC Indy, so Indy should hold 6th.

[DukeRulesMAB]

Really shows what an accomplishment it is to hang on to Major League as long as you have, Billy. Great teams get demoted every year, and other great teams attempting desperately to get in.

We're rooting for you; a very strong 2nd half has put you in as good of a spot as you can be without being in 4th. Great job!

[Lone Star]

Originally posted by BillyNYC
If you look at Smokin Joes' ratings today, they're great. They could potentially play spoiler to PCFC....but do they want to? A win and they stay in top 4, a loss and they drop to qual. match perhaps. But presumably with a PIC and a home match, they'd kill whoever they face.
Thank god I've already clinched II.1, or I'd really be stressing out. I'm not sure what to do, or what I'd do if I were in Smokin' Joes' position. I know I wouldn't MOTS if I were him because the downside is far too great......lose and your spirit is shot right before a possible playoff match (although I think KKFC will beat SUFC to clinch 4th for Smokin' Joes). With far more to lose then to win, I guess I'd PIC and see what happens.

Now, that leaves my options. Do I play normal and hope for the best? Do I MOTS and go for the gold knowing that if I lose or tie that I'll most likely have a playoff match? Or do I play safe, PIC, and still take the chance of a playoff match ass-whoopin?

I don't know. I'd rather not have a playoff match at any cost because I know I'll lose. I'm not ready for the Major League, but like Smokin' Joes himself once said about me, I always seem to win just enough points to get by......so if can somehow get the points to auto-promote, I'll take it. Then after that I'll try to keep my head above water in D1.

Sigghhhh.......last season it was so much easier to decide. I had to MOTS the last game just win the series, knowing full well I'd get stomped in the playoff. And that's what happened......but I got a nice little trophy in my clubhouse for my troubles.

[DukeRulesMAB]

If you are 99% sure you'll get stomped in a qualification match if you have to play it, I say MOTS this week. If losing next week is pretty much a given, why not go all out to win auto promotion?

Unless of course you don't want to promote (and if you're gonna have a season like AYSA did in Major League next year, I'm not sure I'd want to promote). In which case it's tank time, baby!

[Havok]

Best team in America last week Billy.... good job :)

[apoc]

I have in fact pic in my last 6 league games winning 3 and losing 3 ....... Kinda sad I managed to win 3 of em hehe but yes I expect a big loss in league next week and I expect next season to be hell due to my restructuring. I put alot into this cup run and it is going to cost me but hey if I win it was worth it :)