Sabermetrics

[lcjjdnh]

Just finished reading Michael Lewis' Moneyball (Great Book, Highly Recommended) and was interested in learning a little more about the Sabermetrics talked about in the book. Does anyone know of any good sites to with info on the subject. I checked out baseballprospectus.com but it seems a lot of the stuff is Premium service.

Thanks in advance

[Calis]

I just started reading Moneyball last night, good to hear some more praise for it.

As for your question, I've recently been going to BaseballPrimer (http://www.baseballprimer.com/) they seem to have some pretty good stuff on there. Not sure how it compares to other sites out there, as I haven't checked any yet.

[QuikSand]

Another site that is mostly pay, but partially free is Ron Shandler's Baseball HQ (http://www.baseballhq.com). It's largely geared toward fantasy/rotisserie baseball players, but is pretty firmly grounded in data-mining and so-called sabermetric analysis. It's a very well-done site, in my biased opinion.

Over the last decade or so, I don't think anyone has altered fantasy baseball as much as Ron Shandler.

[oykib]

Baseball Proospectus was really good. Now it's a pay site and it's just good. Rob Neyer's column on ESPN.com is good, and most of them are archived. You can also check out his website where he and a BP guy do an analysis of their favorite team, the Royals.

But the best thing to do is pick up anything by Bill James. You can sometimes find his book pretty cheap. Earl Weaver's guide to baseball strategy was a very good read also. Rob Neyer wrote a book on Baseball Dynasties with Eddie Epstein that was great. My favorite sabermetric book, though, was Bill James Guide to Baseball Managers. That was an incredible read. However the most comprehensive book is Bill James' Historical Baseball Abstract.

[Senator]

What oykib just said. The Bill James HIstorical Baseball Abstract and Guide to Baseball Managers will totally change the way you look at the numbers. I was impressed beyond words.

[mckerney]

From what I'd read of Moneyball it made clear that Billy Beane is a pretentious cock and a quite a dumbass as well.

The books speaks of his strategy of drafting college players based on statistics, and you hear of the sucess he has had, though it didn't seem to mention any of the failures the method has had, or the sucesses of those who came from high school (Jeremy Bonderman anyone?).

Beane may be a decent GM, but that doesn't mean he's not an asshole.

[TroyF]

Originally posted by mckerney
From what I'd read of Moneyball it made clear that Billy Beane is a pretentious cock and a quite a dumbass as well.

The books speaks of his strategy of drafting college players based on statistics, and you hear of the sucess he has had, though it didn't seem to mention any of the failures the method has had, or the sucesses of those who came from high school (Jeremy Bonderman anyone?).

Beane may be a decent GM, but that doesn't mean he's not an asshole.

The book doesn't imply that you can't have success with high school kids. It doesn't imply that drafting only college players with great stats is a lock for success.

It states how Beane has went about drafting players and how successful he's been at it. I'm not sure you can call a GM of a small market club that has put up a record of 431-301 (.588 winning %) over the past 5 years as a dumbass.

He is cocky. He does rub some people the wrong way. His methods, as of now, have worked perfectly.

-------------------------------------------------

I still have a stack of old Bill James abstracts. It's amazing to go back through them now. Truly amazing books.

TroyF

[ISiddiqui]

Bill James' work is really good to get into Sabermetrics. Of course you may have questions if you pick up his Historical Baseball Abstract first (like I did). I had to Google 'secondary average' to figure out what it really was, and even then I had to dig :D. Though I'm sure I should have asked here and I'd have the answer in 15 minutes ;).

[Calis]

So, would you say there's a better starting point them for reading his works?

This thread has got me interested in checking out his stuff, and I just read through portions of Moneyball discussing his thoughts and it sounds really interesting.

Just curious though, how do his books read? Wondering if he has a pretty good writing style, or it's just constant number crunching?

[TroyF]

This ebay link is to one of his earlier books. Incredible readi IMO:

Bill James Yearbook (http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=3534492156&category=29384)

TroyF

[QuikSand]

James' writing style is very approachable - highly recommended.

[ISiddiqui]

So, would you say there's a better starting point them for reading his works?

Well, personally, I think starting with the Bill James Historical Abstract is a great idea! Even though you may not get some minor references (like secondary average... and tertiary average [heaven forbid]), it is still very easy to follow and you get a great feel for the history of the game.

[Daimyo]

James writing style is great. I've only ever watched one regular season baseball game and a couple playoff games and I still never found myself lost or bored once reading Win Shares (or Moneyball for that matter). Rob Neyer is no where near as good as James, but his stuff is usually pretty entertaining too (although I think it is dumbed down a lot since its on espn.com... lowest common denominator and all)

[ISiddiqui]

although I think it is dumbed down a lot since its on espn.com... lowest common denominator and all

That's probably true. I get the feeling that most ESPN visitors don't want to hear that 'numbers stuff' ;). Neyer, though, is really very smart about the game and its history.

[Calis]

Thanks guys, now I'm convinced that it's a must read. I might actually read the Guide to Managers first though, as I find that really intriguing to me.

I'll end up buying whatever I can find though.

Got a trip coming up, so I should have a fair amount of reading time, this looks like that time filler.

[tucker342]

damn you guys, now I might have check out one of his books:D

[QuikSand]

Here's an article on the free portion of Baseball HQ (http://www.baseballhq.com) right now, for what it's worth:

- - - - -

Declining Dominance, heavy workload tarnish Sabathia's luster

C.C. Sabathia's (LHP, CLE) complete game, four hit, one run victory at MIN on Thursday was an impressive outing, lowering his season ERA and WHIP to 3.27 and 1.25. But despite the dominant showing, Sabathia's BPIs remain mediocre:


Year bb/9 k/9 k/bb hr/9
==== ==== ==== ==== ====
2003* 2.9 5.9 2.0 0.6

* thru 7/3/2003


Sabathia is skating the edge of LIMA acceptability. He has kept his BB and HR down, but his k/9 is not measuring up to our standards. As Stephen Nickrand remarked in his May 5 Market Watch, Sabathia has changed his means of success since his arrival at the Major League level in 2001, when he had an 8.5 k/9. Sabathia is no longer the power pitcher he appeared to be.

The other concern about Sabathia is his workload. He threw 180 IP in 2001, 210 IP in 2002, and has already accumulated 110 IP so far in 2003. What's worse, his pitch counts have been above 100 per game in 10 of his 17 starts, including all five of his last five games. Indeed, Sabathia's PCs since May 30 read like this: 98-99-117-101-120-108-101.

It's extremely unlikely that Sabathia can keep this up. He's earned $14 so far this season, but is projected to earn just $4 for the balance of 2003. Sabathia's owners should SELL HIGH right now, before his workload and falling k/9 catch up to him.
- Randall

Market Watch notes appear daily at Baseball HQ. Subscribers receive FIVE DOZEN of these analyses every week!

- - - - -


The free portion of the site always contains at least one such item -- something up to date, data-driven, and focused on fantasy baseball "action" for the fantsy player. I realize there are a few unexplained acronyms (LIMA = "low investment mound ace," a strategy pioneered by Shandler in recent years for many roto-style leagues) but generally, the stuff is pretty intuitive -- much of the same analytical style that drives the Moneyball-type thinking.

Anyway - the site is certaiunly worth checking out if you're a serious fantasy player. Or, if you just have a curiosity about how this stuff applies to actual day-to-day decision-making, there's some clues on what you can get at this site.

It's the only fantasy information site I have ever paid for - and I don't regret having done so.

[Daimyo]

Quiksand, you mentioned once a while back that you wrote for a baseball site... do you have any publically available articles you could share with us?

[lynchjm24]

Originally posted by mckerney
(Jeremy Bonderman anyone?).



I like Bonderman a lot, but his ERA is over 5 in the best pitchers park in the league. He's 20, but it's not like he's off to a Fernando/Fidrych/Willis start.

[mckerney]

Bonderman is 20, and on most clubs he'd probably be in the minors, though with Detroit he's actually one of the top 5 starters in the organization. Just give the kid a few years.

[oykib]

The point with the high school pitchers is not that they never turn out to be good. The problem is that they still have to go through a minefield from 18-23 that college pitchers have largely already bypassed. Most high school guys will get injured or for some other reason not develop as is expected of them.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Daimyo
Quiksand, you mentioned once a while back that you wrote for a baseball site... do you have any publically available articles you could share with us?

I'm afraid that I am contractually prevented from doing so. Some of my material has been used as "teaser" bait from time to time, but everything of mine that has been published is in the subscriber-only archive.

For the most part, my writings have been about meta-game analysis in fantasy/rotisserie baseball. I got the spot as a writer by arguing that the site had plenty of stat-heads, but not enough head-shrinkers. My usual columns are/were about how to beat weaker opponents by better understanding your league's rules and quirks - and using that advantage to your best effect.

They don't pay me enough for me to make any attempt to be a journalist, and try to monitor things day to day with an analytical eye.