Is Leftwich In?

[Samdari]

Surveying everyone's thoughts, as this impacts my fantasy football team (actually, the one I run with my wife). We chose Michael Vick in the 5th round of our draft, and thought we would make it through the first few weeks with supersleeper Kelly Holcomb. With Holcomb still asleep, we picked up Leftwich for this weekend's start. While not stellar, he did show the qualities that I think will make him great. Now, we need to decide whether we can ride Leftwich till Vick is back, or need to choose from Couch, Kelly H, Delhomme. David Carr is available as a FA, but we need to make sure whoever we get will start week 5, and Carr is on the bye.

So, after that long winded explanation, the two part question is: do you think Leftwich will start (a) this week, and (b) for the rest of the season?

[GrantDawg]

Sounds like your in trouble. :)

I'd pick up Delhomme as the QB on the best team (of those listed) and the guy that will be playing the Saints. I'd then pick up Carr the next week, because he is liable to put up better numbers through the rest of this season than Vick.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by GrantDawg
Sounds like your in trouble. :)

I'd pick up Delhomme as the QB on the best team (of those listed) and the guy that will be playing the Saints. I'd then pick up Carr the next week, because he is liable to put up better numbers through the rest of this season than Vick.

The first part of your statement is very true. We are lucky to be 2-2. Want to hear about how bad the running backs are? Four words - Corey Dillon, Duce Staley.

That last part is just not true, at least in the scoring system in the league I am in. The league awards 1 point for each 25 yards passing and each 10 yards rushing. Four points for a passing TD, and 6 for a rushing TD. Thus 50 yards rushing is equal to 250 yards passing. Vick's average of 200 passing and 50 rushing makes him equivalent to a non-rushing QB passing for 325 yards a game (which noone has ever done). Under this system, Vick was the QB leader last season in points per game, had he not been injured, he would have unquestionably the #1 pick in our league. Short version - an average passing, great running QB is a more valuable type in our league than a great passing, no run QB. Vick is thus infinitely better than Carr (who at this point is above average to good passing, not yet great).

Don't get me wrong, I am putting in a claim for Carr, but I also definitely do not want Delhomme. The Panthers may be a good team, but they fear the pass, and Delhomme has been, for the most part, as bad as Holcomb. I'd much rather have Leftwich. He is going to get far more passing yards than Delhomme, but, he only has value if he is going to start this week.

[GrantDawg]

That is right if Vick is going to come back and put up the exact same average as he did last year. My point was that I have a doubt that is going to happen. As a matter of fact, he is probably not going to get into a game until November and then he'll be tenative at best. Don't expect him to come right in and put up the same kind of numbers he did last year, esp. on the ground.

As for Dehomme, I was talking one game (Carr for the rest). He is up against the Saints which just gave up 55 points, and Jacksonville is going up against the Chargers next week. I would say Dehomme has a better shot at putting up numbers than Leftwich next week.

[GrantDawg]

I'll take that comment back if you don't have negatives for interceptions. Jacksonville should be down early and force Leftwich to pass a lot in a bad situation which may mean lots of yards, but lots of turn-overs. But I was just looking at the Charger defensive stats and they aren't as good as I thought they would be.

[Samdari]

Yeah, the Chargers are possibly worse on defense than the Saints, especially pass defense. They have a very young secondary and no pass rush. There are two reasons I do not think Delhomme will put up numbers this week; (1) I think he is unlikely to attempt more than 15 passes, and (2) he stinks. I just don't see him getting to 150 yards (he has averaged 133 this season). There are definitely negatives for TO's which prevented Leftwich from having a pretty good week.

Vick seems 75% likely to return Oct 13, and 100% the following week. I don't see him being very tentative, he's just not that way. We'll see. As I said, I'd love to have Carr, but since I expect Vick back in week 6, my primary concern is week 5, moving Carr down the priority list a bit. I realize needing a QB week 6 is a possibility, but if Leftwich is going to be the guy for the Jags, I'd rather have him. Ideally, I'd be able to choose from among Leftwich/Carr each week.

As for the Vick return date, if he does not play until Nov, and is not stellar after that, we screwed the pooch by taking that gamble in the draft, and there is no way to correct that now.

[albionmoonlight]

I've watched all four Saints games this year. You may want to start Delhomme this week. Our defense is laughable. If Peyton Manning can throw for 6 TDs against us in three quarters, then Jake has to be good for 3 TDs in four quarters.

[GrantDawg]

Originally posted by Samdari
Yeah, the Chargers are possibly worse on defense than the Saints, especially pass defense. They have a very young secondary and no pass rush. There are two reasons I do not think Delhomme will put up numbers this week; (1) I think he is unlikely to attempt more than 15 passes, and (2) he stinks. I just don't see him getting to 150 yards (he has averaged 133 this season). There are definitely negatives for TO's which prevented Leftwich from having a pretty good week.

Vick seems 75% likely to return Oct 13, and 100% the following week. I don't see him being very tentative, he's just not that way. We'll see. As I said, I'd love to have Carr, but since I expect Vick back in week 6, my primary concern is week 5, moving Carr down the priority list a bit. I realize needing a QB week 6 is a possibility, but if Leftwich is going to be the guy for the Jags, I'd rather have him. Ideally, I'd be able to choose from among Leftwich/Carr each week.

As for the Vick return date, if he does not play until Nov, and is not stellar after that, we screwed the pooch by taking that gamble in the draft, and there is no way to correct that now.

You haven't heard the latest, eh? Vick is still barely walking. He has almost no chance to be back by the 13th, and only a slightly better chance to be back the next week.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by GrantDawg
You haven't heard the latest, eh? Vick is still barely walking. He has almost no chance to be back by the 13th, and only a slightly better chance to be back the next week.

As of today's AJC, he is still scheduled to play on the 13th. It looks like this is about 50/50 now, but I do expect him to play on the 19th. Barely walking is an exaggeration - he has no cast, no crutches. Between Thursday and Sunday, he went from a pronounced limp to barely noticeable. He begins running tomorrow. I think he will be physically ready the 13th, but they may wait another week, with the standard waiting for 100% disclaimer. If he does not start running this week, I'll be nervous.

[GrantDawg]

We'll see, but that is not what I heard from guys that were with him yesterday. They were not nearly as optimistic.

[Radii]

Originally posted by albionmoonlight
I've watched all four Saints games this year. You may want to start Delhomme this week. Our defense is laughable. If Peyton Manning can throw for 6 TDs against us in three quarters, then Jake has to be good for 3 TDs in four quarters.

the problem with that is that the Panthers will simply stop passing. If the Panthers get a big lead by the half, it will become the DeShaun Foster show. Delhomme might end up being a good option this week anyway, but I don't think you'd be making a mistake starting Leftwich over him if Leftwich is definitely the starter.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by Radii
the problem with that is that the Panthers will simply stop passing. If the Panthers get a big lead by the half, it will become the DeShaun Foster show. Delhomme might end up being a good option this week anyway, but I don't think you'd be making a mistake starting Leftwich over him if Leftwich is definitely the starter.

Yes, Radii, you have neatly summarized the crux of my immediate dilemma. Is Leftwich the week 5 (and beyond) starter in Jax? I agree with both your points about the Saints game, terrible pass defense playing a team that almost exclusively runs the ball. I don't buy the "If Manning can do this, Delhomme can..." thing though. Jake has yet to prove he is half the QB Manning is and the WR corpse (a typo, but looking at it, it fits) in Carolina is less than Harrison.

Grant, you have now inadvertently pointed out the crux of my longer term problem - reliability of sources. I am basing my estimate of Vick's rapid improvement (from in a boot and barely able to walk without crutches 10 days ago to normal shoes and a barely noticeable limp yesterday) to the AJC beat reporter. I am sure that talk radio shows down there have rumors of a more dire rehab time, but I almost completely discount that forum as reliable. These "guys that were with him yesterday" who are they? Why were they with him? What kind of interaction did they have, etc? What knowledge of sports medicine (hell, I'd take ANY kind of sports or medical knowledge :) ) do they have.

[GrantDawg]

The AJC prints exactly what the Atlanta Falcons wants them to print 99% of the time. I'm not saying he is definitely out until November, but just keep that in mind.

[GrantDawg]

By the way, I read the article. It doesn't say that he'll be back the 13th. It says he might be back by the Saints game if he practices next week.

[GrantDawg]

Oops. I found an article from Monday.

jured quarterback Mike Vick, whose recovery from a broken right fibula figures to sideline him for perhaps three more games, was on the sideline again, occasionally standing in huddles among Johnson, Reeves, offensive coordinator Pete Mangurian and backup quarterback Kurt Kittner.

Three more games puts it into November.

[Samdari]

Yeah, I am basing my estimates on several small snippets, such as the one you quote, in which I read "perhaps three more games" to mean that is the worst case scenario. Those three would be the 5th, 13th and 19th, having him play the 26th (unless my counting skills have eroded). The best case scenario is the 13th. From this, I am guessing the most likely has him playing the 19th.

Also from yesterday was:
Quarterback Mike Vick, recovering from a broken fibula, was walking with a barely noticeable limp Monday in the Falcons' facility. He said he received a positive report from team doctor Andrew Bishop Friday. He has also begun cardiovascular work.

"I feel good, but there's still some soreness," he said. "I just have to make sure I don't push myself and rush anything."

I have not read anything indicating that there is a problem with the bone healing, so he will be medically ready to play soon. I think "physcially ready" is slightly different, and a matter of interpretation. I took the "barely noticable limp" thing to be good news. The next line in the article you quote - "His limp is decreasing." - I also took as good news.

All in all, I think we will learn much when he tries to run this week for the first time. If he is able to do that without being sore by the end of this week, I think he practices next week and starts the 13th. If he is not able to do so until next week, the 19th, and so on.

You did not answer my question about the people who were with him yesterday. I hope you did not read that as me dismissing it, I am seriously trying to gather as much information as I can and also try to adjust the required salt content of each piece. I take your point about the AJC printing what the Falcons want, this seems common with beat reporters. But, I am not certain that the Falcons want to put the happiest face (i.e. earliest return date) on this. Rather, it seems that most of the info they put out about Vick seems to be trying to get fans to temper expectations about Vick's return. I know they have not come out and said that he will play the 13th, just that it is now the target date.

[GrantDawg]

26th is a bye.