Dilemma vs. #1 team

[thealmighty]

I play the series leader this week and if I win, I tie him for first. He plays the #3 team in the last week and I play a less than stellar team I should handle.

#1 gets 65-70 nsi while I get 55-60. If I MOTS, I could pull one of those freak wins, which it would have to be as his midfield is much better. I am the visitor. Stranger things HAVE happened.

Now, if I win, I am still 20 goals in the hole on differential and would need help from the #3 team in the final week. #1 beat #3, 6-1, in the first meeting, but #3 has a HISTORY of squirrel wins and ties (like some- me included- have a history of crap youth pulls), which seem to follow teams around out of pure "kiss-my-ass-you-lucky-bastard" chance.

Here is the kicker: #1 is only 1 point above the line for teams to Auto-Promote. If I do win and #3 doesn't come through, #1 loses his auto-promote and must win a qualifier- which he failed to do last year- or he has his 70 NSI ass back in V.190 again next year.

I think I should PIC and 'throw' the match to ALMOST assure his auto-promotion, as the team that comes in from IV SHOULD be worse than a 70 NSI.

Agree or not?

[RPI-Fan]

I posed this very same question earlier this year, and got hounded for it. I think you're best off letting him win. Even if you do win, you're still a very likely #2 in the series - no different from what you'd be if you lost. I'd PIC, play some backups, and ride your solid TS to a nice win to finish the season, and then just get ready to reload for next season.

[Franklinnoble]

Agree. There's no way you win the division. Get him out of your series, and cruise to an easy title next season. Just PIC this game, and build for next year. As long as you're not at risk of dropping to #3, you've got nothing to lose at this point.

[Masked]

MOTS him!

Well assuming you have already locked up second place, why not try for the win. You won't win your series, but your sponsers will be a bit happier. Just make sure that you can beat the team in week 14 with the bad team spirit. You should just MOTS him too, so it won't be too bad. Just don't expect to win any friendlies in the offseason.

[Blade6119]

I threw my season early on, and regret it every day since...back in week 1 i was the returning league-champ after losing my qualifier with my 51 NSI...i lost the match to the #2 team and his high-flying offense 1-0...i figured i would help him auto promote and rule the division the next year...well now i am the dominant team putting up 70NSIs, while he is in the low 50s...and he is in second with me in third...no team is going to auto promote i dont think since i just beat the #1(heavyregin's boys)...if he promotes im confident in my ability to rule next year, ut if he doesnt the MOTS's could kill my TS...i could have promoted this year if i hadnt given up since i am still 1 game out, and that is after losing to throw-away games to bottom-feeders....bt your late in the season...

I say you give it up, like i planned...looks like yours will work out....but dont forget the unexpeted...the #1 team lost to me, and the #2 to the 4...thats the only reason im still close...and on paper they shouldnt have won... beat the #1 with oly half of my starters in...be careful you dont lose your chance...i won my series on the last week last year, due to a fluke upset that another team pulled off...make your choice wisely

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally posted by thealmighty
I think I should PIC and 'throw' the match to ALMOST assure his auto-promotion, as the team that comes in from IV SHOULD be worse than a 70 NSI.Especially true if the #1 team is hanging around the autopromotion line.

[lytic]

No way! You could get a team like damnmikebrown's aviators who pull higher than 70 NSI consistantly. Go for the gold!!!

[damnMikeBrown]

Thank's Lytic.

I was just going to post something similar. You have no idea what may be coming down into your series. There's some poor unsuspecting V series out there now, that is looking forward to promoting their big bad boy who's throwing up 67-70nsi per game. They have no idea my team is demoting to their series. I put up an 80nsi with a 6 TS playing normal at home.

I'm not saying I'm the biggest, or the baddest, but really, you have no idea what may be promoting down into your series. Of note, I only have 3pts in my series so far, so would be pretty damn low on the totem pole. Who knows how many other mid-70 NSI teams are out there that just got the shaft on their IV series, or a string of bad luck, or poor youth pulls, too many key injuries, poor form, wicked anti-defensive bias(booo HT!), or all of the above.

[lytic]

I'm telling you, this guy is the best #8 team I have even seen!!! You don't want him in your series... ever!

[saintjo]

If you think you can win the qualifying match to get promoted if on the off chance you do win the division, then go for it.

Otherwise pic.

[lytic]

Naw, even if you do lose the qual, you get that extra training in! Go for the gold! Go big or go home!

[thealmighty]

Thanks for the opinions.

I decided that you only have so many chances in life (Hattrick) and you have to take them when presented.

Looking at the teams on Hatstats that could be coming into my series, I was surprised by the level. damnMikeBrown is far from the only heavy hitter going into D V (though the best I saw, for sure) from D IV. One can get buried easily in a series for years, depending simply on luck of demotee, as well as a lucky youth pull by a sseries member.

I expect to get beat handily, but I will play all my best players (form is really bad as I trained stamina when I thought I was throwing the match and forgot to switch back to PM) and hope for a great and powerful OZ kind of game.

Thanks again for the advice and thoughts.