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Easy Mac
10-21-2003, 11:43 PM
Basically, here is a loose stastical outlook on the the season and where teams should stand as opposed to their actual records, and where they may end up. (Note: % is Pythagorean percent based on points and weird math stuff I don't understand).

Here it is (http://fc.furman.edu/~christopher.mason/NFLPyth.html)

Supposed playoffs:
AFC: Bye - KC and IN
TN @ Mia
Den @ Bal

NFC: Bye - MN and SL
SF @ Dal.
Sea. @ TB

Cards, Bears and Falcons are fighting it out for the #1 pick. Nothing really shocking.


Edit: Fixed to comply with TroyF statement below.
TroyF
10-21-2003, 11:46 PM
Actually, it has Denver at 12-4. They'd finish ahead of an 11-5 Tennessee team.

TroyF
TLK
10-21-2003, 11:47 PM
What exactly is the tie-breaker for the #1 pick because the way my Lions have played this year, they deserve some consideration.....
TLK
10-21-2003, 11:48 PM
dola.... forget it.... figured it out
The_herd
10-21-2003, 11:49 PM
Strength of Schedule I believe.
Easy Mac
10-21-2003, 11:50 PM
Originally posted by TroyF
Actually, it has Denver at 12-4. They'd finish ahead of an 11-5 Tennessee team.

TroyF

oops, tend to forget the broncos as much as possible:)

That being said, given how the schedules play out, I sincerely doubt these records are possible anyway, just things to think about as trends start to set in for teams (i.e. Carolina's offense showing itself to be a huge liability, its team being too reliant on a D that can't be on every game.)
TroyF
10-21-2003, 11:54 PM
Just pointing out your flaw. :)

It actually has the Panthers at 9-7. That's a likely record for them. They'd have to go 4-6 the rest of the way for that to happen? I think it's possible with that defense. I can't see Dallas finishing 12-4 or the Packers winning 10 games though. :)

TroyF
Easy Mac
10-22-2003, 12:04 AM
Hey, math is never wrong! :p

A lot of factors unfortuantely can't completely be taken into account when producing these standings. If I had the time, I'm sure I could figure out a way so that points scored in a blowout (see 49ers v. Bears) wouldn't skew their win percentage. Also, it doesn't factor in schedule strength (I could probably do that within a few hours if I were bored enoguh), so it can't accurately predict how the Cowboys will play against better teams. But oh well, if I am somehow right, I can tout my geniousness, and if not, I can just blame it on the computer.