Notre Dame-Syracuse game could determine who plays Oklahoma

[JW]

Another fascinating result of the BCS system. Link and excerpt:

http://www.geocities.com/rtell/index.html

"Dec 1: The battle between USC and LSU might be decided by the computer polls. LSU is ahead in Massey, Anderson and Sagarin. It is very likely that LSU will overtake USC in Billingsley by beating Georgia. I think it is also likely that LSU will 2nd in the NYTimes. This ranking correlates well with the opponents winning percentage and weighs recent results more heavily (that is how Florida was ranked so highly). Wolfe's ranking will be a close call but I think LSU has a good shot at that one too. That leaves Colley's Matrix. Luckily, I have that one duplicated. USC will be #2 in Colley with wins by the favorites. LSU will be #2 in Colley if Syracuse upsets ND, even if Hawaii upsets Boise State. So there you have it the Syracuse-ND game could determine the BCS with its effect on sos and Colley's Matrix. Of course there are many such games during the season, this is just the last one."

If nothing else, the BCS certainly has caused games that otherwise might draw less attention to garner greater attention. LSU and USC fans, for example, will now be glued to Hawaii-Boise St. as well as ND-Syracuse. And this is why we need a playoff.

[Chubby]

SU is going to get blown out, and I'm an SU fan.

[Ksyrup]

Personally, I think they should just withhold publishing the BCS standings until after the conference championship weekend - that way there wouldn't be any "outrage" about one team jumping another week after week. It's designed to be a cumulative poll, so USC shouldn't have felt as if it was getting screwed whe OSU jumped over USC a few weeks back. And you wouldn't have fodder for columnists to suggest that ND/Syracuse will decide the championship, when in fact, that game has as much effect on the outcome as a week 1 matchup of two unranked teams.

[sooner333]

I don't think it should make a difference. If fans aren't intellegent enough to realize that these games mean no more than the games in the first week for the SOS numbers, then they just don't get it, and that's fine.

Look, I actually like the fact that these games are getting attention. That's of course what the TV networks want, but who wouldn't want more meaningful games at the end of the year. People cared about the Bama-Hawaii game, and that benefits college football.

A playoff cheapens the regular season in college football. The regular season meaning SO much is what makes this sport great. The BCS game serves one purpose, to set up a national championship game when there are two teams that are undefeated. The other BCS games are set up to help out the big conferences who would feel left out if their team wasn't in the championship game. If a playoff happened, it would be exciting, but a lot of these regular season games wouldn't matter. Example: the OU-KSU game...nobody outside of the two states really care because either way OU's in the two team playoff. Most of the time that doesn't happen, so all the games matter. (Actually, texas fans care, but that's just because of the BCS bid on the line for their team.)

[JW]

Originally posted by sooner333
If fans aren't intellegent enough to realize that these games mean no more than the games in the first week for the SOS numbers, then they just don't get it, and that's fine.

Respectfully, you're wrong on that count, for the simple reason that the other games have been played, but this Saturday's games haven't. So analysts can quantify -- and have already quantified -- the exact strength of schedule changes that will be caused by various combinations of Saturday results. Statistically those games indeed count the same as the upcoming games, but those games can no longer directly affect the BCS rankings, while the upcoming games will. If you go to the link I offered, you will see a chart of projected SOS for USC and LSU based on various combinations of game outcomes for this Saturday, assuming wins by USC and LSU. So the upcoming games do matter more at this point, because they are the only games left that can affect the BCS standings.

Couple that with the absurd notion that LSU will get no additional quality win points if it beats Georgia again, and may well be penalized in quality win points if it beats Georgia badly, and you see this theater of the absurd that the BCS becomes. Nevertheless, it is no more absurd than the past system of relying solely on often biased human polls.

[sooner333]

Yeah, but if Alabama had beat Hawaii, which happened last weekend, it would have had an effect on the end of the season. Which would have changed the current numbers entirely, meaning a different set of outcomes would make the difference. You can't change the past, but the past certainly makes a difference...you can't say otherwise.

I agree, LSU shouldn't be shafted by this. look at this scenario from soonerfans.com: "Let's say that the top 3 teams are all ranked very close. To make things easier to follow, let's say that USC is #1, OU is #2 and Michigan is #3. All three are undefeated and OU holds a mere 0.2 point lead over Michigan. OU has .5 quality win points for beating BCS #5 Kansas State in the regular season. KSU has a slim lead over BCS teams #6 and #7 and will be OU's opponent in the Big XII Championship game. In this situation, a loss to KSU would knock OU out of the national title hunt (rightly so) but a win over KSU would also knock OU out of the top 2 because they would lose some, if not all, of their quality win points. OU enters the Big XII Championship as USC's national championship opponent and leaves the Big XII Championship game with no more national title hopes, win or lose."

This illustrates that the conference championship game could really hurt a team's chances (like LSU's). Anyway, the point is...until all conferences have one, then they shouldn't be counted in quality win bonus, the win bonus should be frozen at the point before teh second game.

[Craptacular]

Remember that if there were no conference championship games, USC is an easy #2 and LSU is #3. I don't disagree with your statements, but I'm just pointing that out. I actually think that either all conferences should have championship games, or none of them should.

[Craptacular]

One more thing, Miami's win over Pittsburgh makes it harder for LSU to get QW points, since a three-loss Georgia would fall behind them. At best, Georgia ends up #10, and LSU gets 0.1 points. If they fall behind Miami(OH) or Iowa, LSU gets none.

[JW]

Originally posted by Craptacular
Remember that if there were no conference championship games, USC is an easy #2 and LSU is #3. I don't disagree with your statements, but I'm just pointing that out. I actually think that either all conferences should have championship games, or none of them should.

That is true, and in this case the SECCG gives LSU a chance to catch USC if certain things fall into place.

BTW, something else entirely noted by some analysts is that in the human polls WHEN you lose is far more important than who you lose to, the idea being that, especially at the top of the poll, teams usually (with some exceptions) don't lose ground unless they lose. USC lost to an unranked team before LSU lost to ranked Florida. If LSU had lost first, it is likely that LSU would be sitting in the #2 slot now instead of USC in the human polls. You could get a headache thinking about all this. Things like that would be why I would favor an 8 or 16-team playoff using the existing bowl structure.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by JW
Nevertheless, it is no more absurd than the past system of relying solely on often biased human polls.

It is indeed no more absurd than relying on the polls, but that's because its still being decided solely by the human polls. If LSU were 2 and USC 3 in the polls, the BCS standings would also be reversed. The polls are the determining factor. The only real reason for USC to be ahead of LSU there is they were ahead of them in the preseason poll. Yes, preseason expectation is still determining who plays for the national championship.

I also don't buy the SU/ND game will determine who plays in the BCS. The original article talks about the game making up to a .48 difference in the SOS standings (which seems absurdly high to begin with). There is a 1.5 point difference between the teams. Someone needs a math lesson.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by JW
Another fascinating result of the BCS system. Link and excerpt:

http://www.geocities.com/rtell/index.html

"Dec 1: The battle between USC and LSU might be decided by the computer polls. LSU is ahead in Massey, Anderson and Sagarin. It is very likely that LSU will overtake USC in Billingsley by beating Georgia.I stopped reading the thread right there. This is clearly a fantasy scenario.


GO YOU HAIRY DAWGS!!!!

[ice4277]

Originally posted by SkyDog
I stopped reading the thread right there. This is clearly a fantasy scenario.


I also believe LSU will lose this weekend. I am still hoping for both LSU and USC to lose so Michigan will be in the title game, but I really don't see USC going down.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by ice4277
I am still hoping for both LSU and USC to lose so Michigan will be in the title game...

Which, all this muttering about the current issues aside, is really the true nightmare scenario for the BCS. If you have a truly dominant undefeated team like this year's OU team, and their BCS-selected opponent in the "title game" is a two-loss school... how can you in good faith say that UM would deserve to be champions even if they were to beat OU? They lost two games.

[Samdari]

Has anyone seen a line yet? Much like Southern Miss over TCU, I expect UGA to be favored here.

[NOISE]

LSU by 2.5 per USA Today
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/gaming/odds/index.htm

[Tigercat]

After studying the scenarios and the point differentials, it would seem to me to be around a 45-55 proposition for LSU jumping USC if Syracuse wins, LSU wins, and USC wins. Which ain't bad, and at this point as an LSU fan I will take it.

As far as LSU beating UGA.. UGA's chances come down to a somewhat home field and the difficulty in beating a team twice in one year. Because at this point, LSU scores more points and has a better D than Georgia. LSU has improved since the first game, whereas one could argue that Georgia has regressed. If the LSU team that killed Arkansas shows up, I really like our chances. If the LSU team that squeaked by Ole Miss shows up, it could be a really tough game thats too close to call till the end(like the first game).

[Craptacular]

Originally posted by Samdari
I also don't buy the SU/ND game will determine who plays in the BCS. The original article talks about the game making up to a .48 difference in the SOS standings (which seems absurdly high to begin with). There is a 1.5 point difference between the teams. Someone needs a math lesson.

LSU will get a nice boost in SOS. They are currently 17 slots behind USC, which accounts for 0.68 of the difference. Depending on the results of the other games, LSU could end up slightly ahead of USC in SOS. According to the site JW linked to, the ND-Syr game alone could provide a swing of up to 0.24 points (6 slots) between LSU and USC.

LSU would also move up, relative to USC, in some of the computers. It could very well come down to where LSU needs a Syracuse victory for them to have a chance ... unless the pollsters change their minds.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by Craptacular
LSU will get a nice boost in SOS. They are currently 17 slots behind USC, which accounts for 0.68 of the difference. Depending on the results of the other games, LSU could end up slightly ahead of USC in SOS. According to the site JW linked to, the ND-Syr game alone could provide a swing of up to 0.24 points (6 slots) between LSU and USC.

LSU would also move up, relative to USC, in some of the computers. It could very well come down to where LSU needs a Syracuse victory for them to have a chance ... unless the pollsters change their minds.

But the numbers still do not add up. There is a 1.53 point difference between the two. If the top 3 all win, and SU beats ND, that .24 gain puts LSU 1.29 points behind USC. Figure that LSU loses at least .2 quality win points (and it will most likely be all .4) by beating Georgia, and we are back to a 1.49 point lead. Currently, USC is ahead in average computer ranking by .25 points. For a 1.49 point turnaround, LSU would have to end up ahead by 1.24 in average computer ranking. For that to happen, LSU would have to go ahead of USC in all the computer rankings that have them behind. If they switched places, this would be a 1.33 point turnaround. Possible, I suppose. But that figure has the two switching spots (2nd/4th) in the Colley Matrix. If LSU goes from 4th to 2nd, but USC only drops to 3rd, there is only a 1.16 point swing - USC squeaks in.

Anyway, I guess the conclusion here is that IF enough other things happen:

- LSU beats Georgia and Georgia miraculously does not drop below 9th.

- This result vaults LSU to 2nd in all but one computer ranking.

- USC not only drops behind LSU in those computer rankings, but loses spots to other teams (who don't play) as well.

Then the .24 points from UND/SU would indeed put LSU over the top. I just don't see it happening. The conventional wisdom is that UGA making the championship game was a disaster for LSU, and that they will lose all of their quality win points by beating Georgia.

[JW]

Originally posted by SkyDog
I stopped reading the thread right there. This is clearly a fantasy scenario.


GO YOU HAIRY DAWGS!!!!

Ah, Skydog, sorry to take so long to respond, but...
LSU is going to kick Georgia's butt so bad that the Dawgs will spend the entire offseason licking their nether regions.

Seriously....Georgia is a great team; LSU was fortunate to get a win in September; I expect a tough, low-scoring battle going right down to the end like the first game (though with a couple of turnovers either team might win by 2 or 3 TDs). LSU's offense is improved but inconsistent; the defense is also improved from September. And, the bottom line is...if USC was playing in the SEC, they wouldn't even be playing in the SECCG this year. Oklahoma is another story; best team in the country; but not invincible.

[Craptacular]

Originally posted by Samdari
But the numbers still do not add up. ...

Anyway, I guess the conclusion here is that IF enough other things happen:
...
Then the .24 points from UND/SU would indeed put LSU over the top. I just don't see it happening. The conventional wisdom is that UGA making the championship game was a disaster for LSU, and that they will lose all of their quality win points by beating Georgia.

Remember that LSU's SOS will go up quite a bit just by playing Georgia, no matter what happens in the other games. That 0.24 points is just the possible swing from that ONE game. At worst, LSU should make up at least 0.52 of that SOS deficit (currently 0.68). At best, they may gain 0.92 just from SOS alone. No matter what, a ND or Hawaii win will make it tough for LSU.

I still think we shouldn't rule out a change in at least one of the polls. If LSU kills Georgia in Atlanta, and USC squeaks by Oregon St, you would think a number of voters would change their minds. Of course, it's never safe to assume anything with the voters.

[JW]

Originally posted by Craptacular
Remember that LSU's SOS will go up quite a bit just by playing Georgia, no matter what happens in the other games. That 0.24 points is just the possible swing from that ONE game. At worst, LSU should make up at least 0.52 of that SOS deficit (currently 0.68). At best, they may gain 0.92 just from SOS alone. No matter what, a ND or Hawaii win will make it tough for LSU.

I still think we shouldn't rule out a change in at least one of the polls. If LSU kills Georgia in Atlanta, and USC squeaks by Oregon St, you would think a number of voters would change their minds. Of course, it's never safe to assume anything with the voters.

Interesting thing is that LSU would probably be in 2nd place right now if Marshall had not dropped LSU at the last minute to play a Thursday night game. Read the latest entry at the link. http://www.geocities.com/rtell/index.html
Troy St. btw was a stopgap that fell through. Originally LSU had scheduled Marshall and Bowling Green, which would have really raised LSU's SOS this season. LSU must face the same problem next season since Va. Tech recently dropped an early game scheduled at LSU (actually delayed to 2007), this AFTER LSU played at Va. Tech in 2002. At this already late date, it will be hard for LSU to find a decent replacement. But then this is all assumptions, because one must assume LSU would have beaten Marshall and Bowling Green, which is likely but not a given.

[ice4277]

Originally posted by JW
Interesting thing is that LSU would probably be in 2nd place right now if Marshall had not dropped LSU at the last minute to play a Thursday night game. Read the latest entry at the link. http://www.geocities.com/rtell/index.html
Troy St. btw was a stopgap that fell through. Originally LSU had scheduled Marshall and Bowling Green, which would have really raised LSU's SOS this season. LSU must face the same problem next season since Va. Tech recently dropped an early game scheduled at LSU (actually delayed to 2007), this AFTER LSU played at Va. Tech in 2002. At this already late date, it will be hard for LSU to find a decent replacement. But then this is all assumptions, because one must assume LSU would have beaten Marshall and Bowling Green, which is likely but not a given.

Of course, that is assuming that LSU would have beaten both Marshall and BG, which this year, would have been anything but certain.

[BishopMVP]

Originally posted by JW
But then this is all assumptions, because one must assume LSU would have beaten Marshall and Bowling Green, which is likely but not a given.

Originally posted by ice4277
Of course, that is assuming that LSU would have beaten both Marshall and BG, which this year, would have been anything but certain.

Deja vu, anyone? :D

I"m kind of torn, because part of me hopes USC and LSU both lose so Quiksand's doomsday scenario might occur and a playoff becomes a little closer, but I really think an OU-Michigan final wouldn't be entertaining at all.

[sooner333]

Yeah, it really is unfortunate for LSU that those teams were dropped, but of course, we have to look at the reality of what actually occured, not what probably would have happened. I know you're not arguing that we should look at LSU's opponents that dropped them, I'm just stating the obvious (go me!).

As for the playoff, I don't really see how LSU and USC losing would advance a playoff. Maybe if OU had a loss (which still could happen) or two (which can't heading into the Sugar Bowl), then I could see how a playoff would settle things this year. All I see a Michigan-OU matchup doing is making people not care that much. I mean the AP might vote OU number one no matter what happens in that bowl. But, the chances of both LSU and USC losing are unlikely, and one of them losing I'll put at 50%, because LSU will have a tough time with Georgia and USC could lose to Oregon State (although not as likely as LSU). That would end all the controversy, and the BCS will be here to stay (good, in my opinion).

[BishopMVP]

Originally posted by sooner333
As for the playoff, I don't really see how LSU and USC losing would advance a playoff.

Short story, if OU is playing a 2-loss team in the championship game, it will lead to people bitching and media folks writing articles about the BCS and the more complaining there is, the more impetus for change.

[JW]

Originally posted by sooner333
Yeah, it really is unfortunate for LSU that those teams were dropped, but of course, we have to look at the reality of what actually occured, not what probably would have happened. I know you're not arguing that we should look at LSU's opponents that dropped them, I'm just stating the obvious (go me!).

As for the playoff, I don't really see how LSU and USC losing would advance a playoff. Maybe if OU had a loss (which still could happen) or two (which can't heading into the Sugar Bowl), then I could see how a playoff would settle things this year. All I see a Michigan-OU matchup doing is making people not care that much. I mean the AP might vote OU number one no matter what happens in that bowl. But, the chances of both LSU and USC losing are unlikely, and one of them losing I'll put at 50%, because LSU will have a tough time with Georgia and USC could lose to Oregon State (although not as likely as LSU). That would end all the controversy, and the BCS will be here to stay (good, in my opinion).

Agree with the first part. LSU has to play the schedule hand it was dealt. It is interesting to consider the what-if, however. And some people have accused LSU of deliberately scheduling soft, which is not the case. When LSU scheduled Arizona, for example, it was assumed they would be pretty good, not a doormat.

Agree also that LSU will likely have a tough time beating Georgia. I think they are really evenly matched, and in a game like that one or two big plays or turnovers really decides. Georgia has a very fine team and except for LSU's narrow win over them in Baton Rouge, Ga. would be #2 or striving for #2 right now.

But I still don't like the BCS system. Granted OU is the obvious #1 and indeed the best team in the country (but not unbeatable), the next five or six teams are all pretty evenly matched imho. A playoff among the top eight would provide some fascinating matchups and could be done using the existing bowl structure. I would think, for example, that a national semi-final Rose Bowl would be just as prestigious as whatever matchup will likely occur in the Rose Bowl, even though it would be held a week before the championship game. And the Rose could get the championship game every few years.