PREDICTION TIME!!!

[Ben E Lou]

Ok. The high school playoff semifinals here are this weekend. My beloved Tucker Tigers are one of the remaining teams. I'm curious as to your un-biased opinions as to whether or not any team stands out as a clear-cut "favorite." (I don't think so.) Based on the info I'll give below, post your predictions.

The semi-final games:

Tucker vs. Statesboro
Marist vs. Thomas County Central

These games are played at a neutral site (the Georgia Dome). Predict the championship score as well. If Marist wins, they are the home team. Marist is in metro Atlanta, so no significant home field advantage if Marist vs. Tucker. If TCC wins, they will travel to play the winner of Tucker/Statesboro. TCC is a LONG way from metro Atlanta (5 or 6 hours I think), and not particularly close to Statesboro either. Their fans will travel well though. There'd be a slight home-field advantage for Tucker or Statesboro in such a scenario, I think.

OK, here is a some data:


MARIST
Current Power Rating: 118.71 (#1)
Regular Season Record: 12-1-0
Regular Season Losses: Nov. 7, St. Pius X, 20-17 (currently #10-ranked team, 108.2 pwr rating)
Overall Points Scored: 38.9
Overall Points Allowed: 12.6 (2 shutouts)
Playoff Points Scored: 30.6
Playoff Points Allowed: 12.1 (0 shutouts)

Regular Season Loss Info
11/7, lost 20-17 to St. Pius X, who is ranked #10, with 108.2 power rating. St. Pius was eliminated from playoffs by Statesboro, 20-13

Playoff Results
(numbers in parenthesis are Atlanta Journal Constitution Ranking, AP Ranking, and Insiders.com Power Ranking of respective playoff opponent)
[/i]LFO (UR,#16,#25) 38-14
Westlake (UR,UR,#15) 36-6
Shaw (#1,#1,#3) 18-17




STATESBORO
Current Power Rating: 113.46 (#6)
Regular Season Record: 10-2-1
Overall Points Scored: 28.1
Overall Points Allowed: 10.4 (2 shutouts)
Playoff Points Scored: 25.0
Playoff Points Allowed: 15.3 (0 shutouts)

Regular Season Loss Info
8/29, lost 22-20 to Screven County. Screven County finished 10-2, losing in 2nd round of state playoffs one classification lower than these teams. Their power rating (which supposedly is apples-to-apples across classifications) is 102.61

9/12, tied 7-7 with Swainsboro. Swainsboro is in same classification as Screven County. They went 10-1-2, and were eliminated in the q-finals last Friday. Power rating: 106.9

10/17, lost 15-14 to Thomson. Thomson advanced to the 2nd round of the state playoffs before losing 24-14 to Thomas County Central. Thomson has a 108.95 power rating.

Playoff Results
Upson-Lee (UR,UR,#18 ) 28-7
Ware County (#2,#2,#4) 27-26
St. Pius X (UR,#14,#10) 20-13



THOMAS COUNTY CENTRAL
Current Power Rating: 114.06 (#5)
Regular Season Record: 12-1-0
Overall Points Scored: 33.7
Overall Points Allowed: 12.2 (1 shutout)
Playoff Points Scored: 25.0
Playoff Points Allowed: 8.0 (1 shutout)

Regular Season Loss Info
11/14, lost 36-34 to Ware County. Ware went 10-2, and has a 114.26 power rating. They lost to Statesboro in the 2nd round of the state playoffs.

Playoff Results
Pebblebrook (UR,UR#31)35-10
Thomson (#6,#7,#7) 24-14
MLK (#10,#14,#12) 20-0



TUCKER
Current Power Rating: 118.31 (#2)
Regular Season Record: 12-1-0
Overall Points Scored: 34.7
Overall Points Allowed: 8.1 (5 shutouts)
Playoff Points Scored: 34.6
Playoff Points Allowed: 6.6 (2 shutouts)

Regular Season Loss Info
9/12, lost 31-19 to Marist, one of the other semifinalists. Plenty of info on them above.

Playoff Results
Ringgold (UR,UR,#20) 45-20
McNair (UR,#9,#14) 30-0
Troup (#9,#12,#8 ) 29-0



COMMON OPPONENTS
Tucker defeated St. Pius X, 28-3 on 9/5
Statesboro defeated St. Pius X, 20-13 on 12/5 in state quarterfinals
Marist lost to St. Pius X, 20-17 on 11/7


Statesboro lost to Thomson, 15-14 on 10/17
Thomas County Central defeated Thomson 24-14 on 11/28 in 2nd round of state playoffs


Statesboro defeated Ware County, 27-26 on 11/28 in 2nd round of state playoffs
Thomas County Central lost to Ware County, 36-34 on 11/14


(Marist and Tucker come from the same Region, and therefore have 8 common opponents, so I won’t go through them all. Marist defeated Tucker 31-19 on September 12th.)

[Ben E Lou]

Oh... a little more info...

MARIST--option offense with very fast QB and drops in the trick plays at just the right time, well-coached, well-discplined private school kids

STATESBORO--smash-mouth, pure wishbone, big, strong, physical team

THOMAS COUNTY CENTRAL--veer offense, very fast QB, very experienced...were in the finals last year.

TUCKER--balanced offense, very fast, rifle-armed QB, most talent at skill positions (will have 4 or 5 D-1 signees in this senior class), general considered the hottest team in the state right now

[JonInMiddleGA]

Okay, if I just have to try to pick 'em ...

Tucker 24 - Statesboro 13
TCC 24 - Marist 10

Which produces a title game

TCC 20 - Tucker 14

[JonInMiddleGA]

Dola -- the scores are based on the following expectations

Tucker has too much speed for Statesboro, who trails early & can't play catch-up. I'm figuring at least two Tiger TD's will be 40+ yds.

TCC wins as Marist implodes, their characteristic discipline mysteriously vanishes as turnovers cost them any chance to win.

TCC edges Tucker in a good game, they keep their composure down the stretch and hang on for a win.

[Franklinnoble]

How much data do you really have on all these teams? Enough to create a FOF2k4 roster file on them? ;)

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Franklinnoble
How much data do you really have on all these teams? Enough to create a FOF2k4 roster file on them? ;) LOL. Actually over at the Georgia High School Football message boards, a guy posted that he's creating the rosters of the four semifinalists on his PS2.

[Huckleberry]

http://www.mratings.com/rate/hsfGA-m.htm#4A

That is the link to Massey's ratings for Georgia 4A football. He hasn't updated it from last weekend yet.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally posted by SkyDog
LOL. Actually over at the Georgia High School Football message boards, a guy posted that he's creating the rosters of the four semifinalists on his PS2.

Well, think about it. If you could generate a reasonable approximation of all four rosters, you could create an FOF2k4 league that had the same 4 teams (x9) playing each other all season long and throughout the playoffs. The .csv format of the new game would make this pretty easy to do.

With that kind of data, you might be able to make a well-educated guess of the outcome.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Franklinnoble
Well, think about it. If you could generate a reasonable approximation of all four rosters, you could create an FOF2k4 league that had the same 4 teams (x9) playing each other all season long and throughout the playoffs. The .csv format of the new game would make this pretty easy to do.

With that kind of data, you might be able to make a well-educated guess of the outcome. Yes I could, but I don't care THAT much about predicting the outcome. ;) I'm just curious what the FOFCers think.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Yes I could, but I don't care THAT much about predicting the outcome. ;) I'm just curious what the FOFCers think.

But think about how cool it would be to say that FOF2K4 accurately predicted the outcome of the Georgia State High School Football tournament... ;)

Didn't FPS FBPro use to brag about how they could predict the Super Bowl winner? This would be sort of the same thing... kind of...

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Franklinnoble
But think about how cool it would be to say that FOF2K4 accurately predicted the outcome of the Georgia State High School Football tournament... ;)

Didn't FPS FBPro use to brag about how they could predict the Super Bowl winner? This would be sort of the same thing... kind of... Well, in some parts of South Georgia, the high school football playoffs ARE more important than the Super Bowl... ;)

[Butter]

Mini-Ditkas 45, Tucker 2

[HornedFrog Purple]

God bless the Veer. Tough offense to stop with the right people.

My 6-man school (Zephyr) is ranked 9th in Massey Tx. 6-man, but they lost last week. :(

[Huckleberry]

HFP -

I'm working with Massey on separating the 6-man teams from the rest of the schools in the ratings. His data has some games between 6-man and 11-man teams and I was able to finally convince him that even if an 11-man school or JV team played a 6-man team in a 6-man game, their performance should not be used to rate their 11-man team.

They will be separated next year.

[HornedFrog Purple]

Yeah they almost have to be with the various rule differences and even the basic field. There are some good players that come out of 6-man, but the basic stats are exaggerated in comparison to 11-man. As you know, many 6-man players come to various colleges as "athletes" until they figure out what to do with them.

[Huckleberry]

Exactly. It's a different game.

Besides, the 3-time defendings TAPPS 6-man champs are from right here in Austin, so I have much respect for any competition that an Austin team wins. ;)

[digamma]

I'm biased and superstitious, so I will remain silent.

[Craptacular]

Are you looking for the best team or the champion?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Craptacular
Are you looking for the best team or the champion? :D

Well, at this point, I'm looking for who y'all think is the "best" team, if there is one that stands out. (I don't think there is, but I know I'm biased, so I fully admit that I could be missing something here.) On Saturday, December 20th, the champion will be crowned though, independently of any polls or computers. They'll be crowned because of on-the-field performance, too. ;)

[digamma]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Oh... a little more info...

MARIST--option offense with very fast QB and drops in the trick plays at just the right time, well-coached, well-discplined private school kids

STATESBORO--smash-mouth, pure wishbone, big, strong, physical team

THOMAS COUNTY CENTRAL--veer offense, very fast QB, very experienced...were in the finals last year.

TUCKER--balanced offense, very fast, rifle-armed QB, most talent at skill positions (will have 4 or 5 D-1 signees in this senior class), general considered the hottest team in the state right now

A little more historical information on the teams (it doesn't have very much to do with determining the best team or the champion, but shows you what a historically stacked field this is)...

Marist--Last state title was in 1989, but has been a mainstay in the semi-finals. I think they have played Thomas County Central something like six times in the Dome. Marist has been over the last 20 years one of the top 3-5 programs in this classification. Matt Harpring played quarterback at Marist--in fact Marist has been a pretty solid pipe line to Georgia Tech. Current Tech Center and finalist for the Rimington Award Hugh Reilly played there as well.

Thomas County Central--If Marist is one of the top 3 programs in this class over the last 20 years, Thomas County is probably the program in this classification over that time period. They've won five state titles since 1990. As I said, they've been to the Dome six times. Charlie Ward played for TCC, as did Joe Burns, Myron Guyton and several other pros.

Statesboro--Won the state title in 2001. Also made it to the Dome in 2000 (by beating Tucker 8-7 in the quarterfinals). Admittedly, I know the least about them, but they are another perennial power.

Tucker--44-7 over the last four years. Making its first trip to the Dome, but was in the quarterfinals 2 of the 3 previous years. Has made the playoffs every year since (I think) 1988. Made the state semi-finals (before they were played in the Dome) in 1994. No state titles. Patrick Pass played for Tucker, as did current college players Jabari Davis and Darius Swain.

[TroyF]

Clearly Tucker is the worst of the four. A favorable schedule helped them get a lot of cheap wins and they've been EXTREMELY healthy and haven't lost a key player this year. I think they'll be lucky to stay within 40 in the semi final game.

Had they given up 5 TD runs to Troup, that would have been a decidedly different game and they wouldn't even be in the position they are in.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by TroyF
Clearly Tucker is the worst of the four. A favorable schedule helped them get a lot of cheap wins and they've been EXTREMELY healthy and haven't lost a key player this year. I think they'll be lucky to stay within 40 in the semi final game.

Had they given up 5 TD runs to Troup, that would have been a decidedly different game and they wouldn't even be in the position they are in. Jerk. ;)


Calpreps.com has released their predictions:
Tucker 28, Statesboro 19
Marist 31, Thomas County Central 27