FOF2k4 Drafting driving me nutz....

[Havok]

At first i liked the fact that drafting was kinda of a crap shoot in FOF2k4. I thought it would make drafting much more interesting. But now its just starting to piss me off.

I've probally played through about 15 seasons so far and almost every freaking guy i pick sucks. My scout is "Excellent" at young talent, either average or better everywhere else and "Excellent" at linebackers. So in my last draft i take a very very nice looking MLB with the 11th pick, he of course turns out to be about half as good as my scout said so now im stuck with his contract for 5 years. This is just 1 example, i have dozens more just like it. There dam combine ratings dont seem to matter much either. I draft a Left tackle with 35 or so reps on the strength test., he turns out to have like 8 blocking strength.

Another thing that doesn't make much sense is the draft grade you get at the end of the draft. The best i've ever gotten is a B+ and that was because the reciever i drafted like 6th overall actually turned out to be pretty good. But usally i seem to get a B or lower and not a single guy i draft is worth starting. In my latest season the best grade in the draft went to the Bears, everyone they drafted completely sucked except for the DT they got 2nd overall. He was pretty nice, but because they drafted 1 good player with the 2 overall pick they deserve a A+ rating??? i used to like building a crappy team through drafting, but now thats impossible. Now i gotta do it through free agency which isn't much different from the previous game. Guys still ask for WAY WAY to much money just because they're a starter. Even if they suck, espically defensive lineman asking for 10-20 million a season or quaterbacks asking for like 4 million there first season then up to 25 million 3 seasons later, gimmie a break.

Anyway, back to the draft. It just seems like no matter how much i study each players scores or how high the Bureau rating is they still end up being subpar players at best. Its getting extremely frustrating, i wanted the drafting to be a little more challenging but this just isnt fun for me.

[No Fanboy hostle replies :)]

[Ben E Lou]

There are DEFINITELY some keys to drafting successfully and it isn't fully a crapshoot (but there is some randomness which is imho a good thing). My main career is on a laptop which is at my office right now, so I can't go into details, but I can tell you that lately that the great majority of my 1st-3rd rounders become starters, and I'm usually getting at least one 4th-7th rounder (or FA) who becomes a starter out of each draft as well.

[Havok]

man... maybe im doing something wrong then, you gotta gimmie some pointers!

[amdaily]

I just trade away my first round pick every year for a second and third and then let my scout auto pick for me. The unpredictability in FOF2004 is equally bad to the predictablity of earlier versions.

[Havok]

Originally posted by amdaily
I just trade away my first round pick every year for a second and third and the my scout auto pick for me. The unpredictability in FOF2004 is equally bad to the predictablity of earlier versions.


Thats the feeling im getting amdaily... i like Busts/Booms and randomness but somethings just dont make any sense in the draft. Its really starting to ruin the game for me :(

[The_herd]

I can't recall getting below a B for a draft grade, usually I get a B+ or A-. I admitt that I spend quite a good bit of time going over the draft board for every pick I make, but there are definately some things to look for. It is by no means a crapshoot in 2k4. The main things I look for are smart players, regardless of position, and good agility/strength scores. If I draft high volitility he needs to have great combine numbers, or I won't touch him. The only exception to that is late round QB's, I always draft the highest volitility I can find.

Maybe you should stick to Hattrick if you can't cut it.:D

[Front Office Midget]

I've had relative success in drafts so far, I've loved the results overall. Some picks turn out, some don't. I love it.

[Havok]

Originally posted by The_herd
Maybe you should stick to Hattrick if you can't cut it.:D

LOL :)

[sabotai]

My draft experience is pretty much the same as SkyDog's. 2 things to look at is Volatility. This rating basically means the higher it is, the higher the chance he'll turn out differently. If he has low ratings and a high Volatility, then he has a chance of become good. If he has high ratings and high Volatility, there is a chance he'll bust.

Basically, what you want is high rated players to have low Volatility and low rated players to have high Volatility.

You'll also want to look at is Percent Developed (or something liek that. I can't remember it's actual name). The higher this number is, the more his bars will be red. So if he has a low rating here, his bars will mostly be green, but if it's high, he'll have a lot of it in red.

[nilodor]

To continue on sabotai's point I believe there is a strong corrolation between high talent draft picks with high pecent developed and having high success with early draft picks. The higher the value, it seem the better they turn out.

To answer the draft grade question, I think it deals primarily the draft rating of the players selected and how well you fill your needs. So for example the bears who got an A+ grade may have had a couple bust out but their high selections were at positions where they had a high need.

[Raiders Army]

To add onto the Draft rant, I build my team entirely through the draft, but I can't hold on to any of the players! My starting QB, RB, DE, MLB, SLB, and CB are all FA the following year, and I can't sign them and stay under the cap! I had to let me LBs go and draft new ones, I re-signed my CB, and I'm going to let my RB go. I still need to hold onto my DE and QB, and they both want a contract increase of 100% of what they're making now. Yes, they are both low in loyalty and winners. It just sucks man.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by The_herd
I admitt that I spend quite a good bit of time going over the draft board for every pick I make, but there are definately some things to look for. It is by no means a crapshoot in 2k4. The main things I look for are smart players, regardless of position, and good agility/strength scores. If I draft high volitility he needs to have great combine numbers, or I won't touch him.You've hit on pretty much exactly my experience. I spend a *LOT* more time in the draft that in previous versions, and it appears to be paying off. As The Herd mentioned, you've got to look at virtually every bit of information presented to you about the player. 40 time, agility score, intelligence, strength, volatility, bars in key ratings areas, % developed, how good your scout is at that position. My experience has been that if the info is given, you need to take it into account. Once you start to look at everything, you'll likely start having more success.

The thing that has been the biggest help for me without question is this: I started doing two saves per year seventeen seasons ago:

Falcons 2014 Predraft
Falcons 2014 Postdraft
Falcons 2015 Predraft
Falcons 2015 Postdraft
Etc. Etc. Etc.

Then, whenever I run across a first-rounder who busted, or I see some sixth-rounder on the All-Pro team, I can go back and look at his pre-draft player card and see if there were any patterns. Once you look at dozens of guys who have over/under-achieved, you'll start to form some impressions.

[Troll]

It's kinda hard for me to feel for some of the people who have had problems drafting b/c to me it doesnt seem like a crap shoot AT ALL. In over 35+ seasons i've only blown 2 first round picks. One was a Corner Back I took at number 1 who turned out to be a very average corner. His best season was a 4 pick season and he toped out at 52/52. The other is a Running Back i traded up to draft at number 4. I gave up my first rounder number 27 and 2 second rounders hoping he would be my missing piece on my team, I already had the leagues top D and the leagues MVP at QB. He grew very good in ratings, he peaked at 71/71 however I consider it a blown pick b/c his best season he ran for just 819 yards and had a career average of just 3.1 yards per carry. Most of my other first rounders become all pros. I draft all of my stars and usually dont mess with free agency much, especially when I'm in rebuilding mode. Most of my second and third rounders become starters eventually too. I havent had alot of success with late picks, however I did draft a hall of fame WR in the 6th round. I had a stretch of 6 straight seasons with an A+ draft rating.

[Honolulu Blue]

I haven't played the game in awhile (still too busy with ITP), but when I did I had a fair amount of success with the draft. I didn't get the All-Pros (I tend to draft late), but I get guys who are solid and linger around the league a long time.

The key for me is favoring guys who can play at a decent level right away. Development is highly correlated with playing time, and if they can get on the field in some role (3rd down back, gunner, kick returnter, etc.), that helps a lot.

[Havok]

Originally posted by Raiders Army
To add onto the Draft rant, I build my team entirely through the draft, but I can't hold on to any of the players! My starting QB, RB, DE, MLB, SLB, and CB are all FA the following year, and I can't sign them and stay under the cap! I had to let me LBs go and draft new ones, I re-signed my CB, and I'm going to let my RB go. I still need to hold onto my DE and QB, and they both want a contract increase of 100% of what they're making now. Yes, they are both low in loyalty and winners. It just sucks man.

contracts have always been screwy in FOF games... average players want 20 mil a year and great players want 30 mil a year. Kinda retarded... i had hoped that FOF2k4 would be different, but its not.

[Ben E Lou]

Actually I'd forgotten that I ran Fido's util on part of my universe folder that I copied to my desktop machine last night. Here's a little draft data as I've gotten later in my career.

2014
1(32)--QB Lionel Forbes--started for me for 9 years before injury ended his career--86.3 career rating--led us to 2 Super Bowl wins.
2(32)--DE Roosevelt Branch--played 3 years in his initial contract with me and didn't start because of a talent glut at DE, but went on to be a starter for 9 seasons with a couple other teams.
3(32)--SS Gene Burgess--played out his initial contract with me (3 yrs) not starting--unsigned in 2017 free agency, but picked up midseason and became a starter in Philly--7 games, 7 starts. Held the "distinction" in 2018 of being the highest-potential-rated non-kicker who wasn't picked up by anyone (24/48).
5(32)--MLB Jeffrey Dronett--2-year career and out of football. No starts.
6(32)--T Arnold Borders--2 and out. No starts.
7(32)--G Walter Young--3 and out. 2 starts.

2015
1(28)--DT Dana Shull--11-year starter, 3 10+ sack seasons
2(28)--FB Marvin Van-Pelt--sure-fire Hall Of Famer--11 All Pro awards in a row
3(28)--G Cary Holman--5-year career, one as starter
4(28)--DT Rufus Dewitt--6-year career, 2-year starter--had 59 tackles one year as a DT. Nice for a DT.
5(28)--DE Christian Fox--played in 5 games in 2-year career
6(28)--TE Brant Giles--5 year career, mostly as backup, started 4 games

2016
1(5)--G Bryce Laudenback--9-year starter, retired early due to injury--never allowed more than 5 sacks in a season--had 35+ KRB thrice
2(5)--G Edgar Thweat--10-year starter for three different teams
3(5)--TE Allen Gaines--10-year starter for two different teams--had 85 catches for 1347 yards in his best season--50+ catches 7 times
4(5)--T Lewis Krzyzanowski--10-year starter for Atlanta (career still going) at LT--allowed 11 sacks as a rookie starter, 8 in his second year, but then had 5 seasons with 5 or less sacks allowed in 16 starts
4(31)--DE Tim Anglewicz--journeyman DE--still in the league after 10 seasons and 54 starts for various teams
5(1)--T Jessie Jack--another journeyman--started 60 games in 8-year career
5(5)--T Shane Kelley--111 starts in 10 seasons
6(5)--K CJ Hickman--excellent kicker for 10 seasons--40 for 45 FG's one year--career long 62 yarder
6(11)--QB Kelvin Branch--still in league after 10 years and 25,662 passing yards, career rating: 84.4. 105 starts

2017
1(32)--CB Bucky Miasek--became stud cover corner with near-maxed out ratings in all coverage categories--9-year starter, still in the league, 51 career INT's, 6 for TD's
2(32)--FL Jessie Grier--59 starts in 9 seasons--best year: 67 catches, 836 yards, 6 TD's
3(20)--OLB Mark Groce--3 years and out
3(32)--T Tom Dupree--1 year and out
4(32)--DT Clifton Ireson--28 starts in 5-season career


So...over those four years I had:

1st-Rounders: 4. All four became solid contributors. One (Miasek) was a bona-fide superstar, sure-fire HOF guy, one of the best ever.

2nd-Rounders: 4. 3 became full-time starters. The fourth was a contributor. One (FB Van Pelt) was the best at his position for 11 years.

3rd-Rounders: 5. 1 became a very good starter. None of the other 4 amounted to much

4th-Rounders: 4. 3 journeyman part-time starters. One full-time starter.

5th-Rounders: 4. 2 solid part-time starters. Two guys who never did anything.

6th-Rounders: 4. 1 good QB. 1 good kicker. Two guys who never did anything.

7th-Rounders: 1. Didn't do much of anything.

I definitely wouldn't call it random.

[sabotai]

Originally posted by Raiders Army
To add onto the Draft rant, I build my team entirely through the draft, but I can't hold on to any of the players! My starting QB, RB, DE, MLB, SLB, and CB are all FA the following year, and I can't sign them and stay under the cap! I had to let me LBs go and draft new ones, I re-signed my CB, and I'm going to let my RB go. I still need to hold onto my DE and QB, and they both want a contract increase of 100% of what they're making now. Yes, they are both low in loyalty and winners. It just sucks man.

Welcome to the NFL. :D

[BigJohn&TheLions]

I have noticed that most of the guys drafted by most teams tend to suck. That includes 1st rd. I have been using draft files from TCY and it seems that the players generated by the game for drafts have been better superior to the TCY players.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Just echoing at least some of what's been said here already --
I start with volatility, nothing except very low in the first 2-3 rounds, nothing worse than average before the 6th, then the highest volatility I can find in the bottom of the draft.

After setting up those guidelines (mentally), I've settled into a pattern of 1st rounders that are keepers, the occasional 2nd round bust still sneaks through (I hate 2nd round picks most years, the talent level doesn't justify the cost IMO) and then a scattered assortment of players who stick for at least a year or two in rounds 3-5. 6th & 7th usually don't last past pre-season, but there's still the occasional gem in there, especially if the situation gets them substantial playing time.

[MizzouRah]

Originally posted by BigJohn&TheLions
I have noticed that most of the guys drafted by most teams tend to suck. That includes 1st rd. I have been using draft files from TCY and it seems that the players generated by the game for drafts have been better superior to the TCY players.


I'm starting to notice this as well. Although there have been some good RB's coming out of the draft. Seems like the CPU controlled teams are just as much in the dark as my team is. Most 1st-2nd rounders should be decent and I'm now seeing some really poor players getting drafted by CPU teams.

Has anyone used TCY drafts for more than 5 years yet? I'm on #4 and just started noticing this. I really don't want to start over and use the generated ones, but if the TCY imported drafts start to make the cpu teams poor, I might have to.

I guess I could just switch to generated drafts, but I wonder how much, if any, better they are?


Todd

[BigJohn&TheLions]

I'm in 2008 and the "developed" TCY players aren't much better than the ones from the first 4 seasons, other than being heavier!

[Fonzie]

One thing I've noticed so far in my 18 year career is that nobody, and I mean nobody has taken a QB with the first overall pick.

Kinda strange.

[nilodor]

I just went through the 2012 draft using TCY players and found 2 busts in the first round and the rest of the players were bonified first rounders. In the second round there are 5 bust to below average players while the rest should be starting or top backup's. I think the computer is putting together talented rosters, some teams are not very good but most are on par or better than my team talent wise. Maybe not so much cap wise though.

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by Fonzie
One thing I've noticed so far in my 18 year career is that nobody, and I mean nobody has taken a QB with the first overall pick.

Kinda strange.

This is interesting. I hadn't really noticed this until you pointed it out, but I'm now in 2047. In all those drafts, a QB was taken #1 overall only three times. Two of those selections were by me.

Discounting the #1 picks I had, the computer has gone QB 1 out of 35 times.


About the draft as a whole:

I find myself either trying to move up in the first round to grab certain guys, or moving down (or out) when i can't find what I'm looking for.

The majority of my team is built through free agency, sticking to the bargain bin. I build depth at most positions, rather than looking for stars.

[Easy Mac]

I had great success for the first few years of the draft, but as soon as my team became successful, its become more of a crapshoot. I think it has more to do with picking at the end of rounds and the talent being thinner then. For the most part I'm currently getting guys who can spot start, but no one too dominant. This is different from the days when I got my two corners in back to back years.

Here is a list of my drafts so far (now 2012):

2004:
Rd 1 (2) Roger Strong QB - 5 year starter before he asked for too much money. Almost 14,000 yards, 88 tds, made the playoffs twice with me. Now a backup after injuries took their toll.
Rd 2 (34) Roger Mathis WLB - A hell of a player, but injury prone. Great ratings, but couldn't stay healthy. Still a backup.
Rd 3 (66) Howie Maas RCB - Lasted 2 years with 28 tackles. Out of Football.
Rd 4 (98) Earl Shapiro K - Nearly maxed out kicker. Missed 22 FG in 4 years, but 9 in his last with me. Missed too many important ones, so I cut him.
Rd 6 (162) Steve Bryant MLB - 30 tackles in 2 years. Now a backup in Oakland.
Rd 7 (194) Jerome McKenzie MLB - Cut and played a year with the Titans.


2005:
Rd 1 (11) Colin Carr RT - Very good RT, but couldn't afford him after 4 years. Now starting in Pit.
Rd 2 (43) Isaac Jarvie LCB - One of 2 stud CB's from 05-06. All-pro in 0, but hurt last 2 years. Still a starter when healthy. 22 INTs.
Rd 3 (75) Wally Scott QB - Now retired.
Rd 4 (107) Derrick Grismore RCB - Backup for 2 years.
Rd 5 (139) Fred Cote RB - Backup for a year.
Rd 6 (171) D.J. Shaye LT - 3 year starter . Went to SF, where he got injured for 2 years, played another, then retired. ery good pass blocker.
Rd 7 (203) Kennedy Bucher TE - Career journeyman.

2006:
Rd 1 (16) Marshall Winslett RCB - Other starting corner. 18 picks. Very good ratings and great play the past 2 years.
Rd 2 (33) Bill Burton QB - A journeyman. Started for 1 year in Seattle.
Rd 2 (48) Rod Seymour LT - Would have been a starter if he stayed healthy.
Rd 3 (80) Lonnie Cardwell FL - Became too expensive for me after 3 years. Set the record for catches and yards in a season with Oakland last year. So he's been pretty successful.
Rd 4 (112) Patrick Sakowski MLB - A spot starter for 2 years, now does the same for other teams.
Rd 5 (144) Chad Pritchett P - Currently my punter, and has led the league in Punting average every year. 44.7 career average. Never punter of the year though.
Rd 7 (208) Isaac Cassidy QB - Started 1 year with Detroit, so not too shabby for him.


I'm stopping here for now because this is taking too long. Not sure what to make of this info.

In 2004 I had 3 guys who were good, but 2 never fulfilled their full potential because of injuries.

In 2005 First 2 picks were really good, round 6 was good until injury. The rest were bad.

In 2006 I had 3 very good guys, 1 was good until injury, one decent journeyman, the other 2 were scrubs.

So in hte first 3 years, my top 2 picks did what they were supposed to do until they got injured. after that it starts to become a crapshoot, though I've found about 1-2 players every year who could start or backup most teams.

If it matters I'll do 2007-2011, but it probably won't.

[MizzouRah]

Originally posted by nilodor
I just went through the 2012 draft using TCY players and found 2 busts in the first round and the rest of the players were bonified first rounders. In the second round there are 5 bust to below average players while the rest should be starting or top backup's. I think the computer is putting together talented rosters, some teams are not very good but most are on par or better than my team talent wise. Maybe not so much cap wise though.

Good to know. I'm young into my career, balancing TCY and FOF2k4, each in 5 year increments.

I always wondered if any extensive testing was done to TCY generated players to see if they hold up in the long run? Glad to see in 2012 you are still seeing good drafts with TCY players. Although I haven't seen any 1st round QB's either.

One thing I wish, maybe for future versions, is more of a correlation of TCY stats for good/bad players in FOF2k4. I know college stats do not always make a great NFL player, but I see too many players like Florida's 2 time QB player of the year in TCY, never getting drafted... although he was head and shoulders above anyone that has came through TCY thus far. Shouldn't he at least get a shot at a round 1 draft pick? Instead, I see a backup QB become a starter for Seattle.

A little weird....


Todd

[Ksyrup]

One thing I'm finding is that with my late round picks, I might as well trade them away, because I can get better players on a 1-year contract without paying the bonus (even though they are pretty small) and being saddled with a guy for 3 years and anywhere from $60K to $900K in bonuses left when I end up cutting him. I'd just rather sign a guy to a 1-year contract and be done with it.

My early round picks have been pretty predictable.

[MizzouRah]

Except for my 6th rounder, who has turned into quite a nice WR behind Bruce. In fact, I no longer have to worry about paying him big money to stay alongside Holt. He's been my 1 gem thus far.

Heck, I should trade away my first rounders! ;)


Todd

[BishopMVP]

Originally posted by MizzouRah
Good to know. I'm young into my career, balancing TCY and FOF2k4, each in 5 year increments.

I always wondered if any extensive testing was done to TCY generated players to see if they hold up in the long run? Glad to see in 2012 you are still seeing good drafts with TCY players. Although I haven't seen any 1st round QB's either.

Is it possible that the talent level coming from TCY is weaker until the CPU teams have a chance to recruit players and develop them? If that were true, the game-generated and TCY drafts should even out around 2008.

[Vikings13]

I've had pretty consistent results from my drafts. I see an appropriate number of superstars and busts.

I managed to luck out with my scout, he's an Exc with young talent and has several VG ratings plus Exc with OL and DBs. I picked up a Tackle in the 7th round my second year who made the Green Page and now starts. I've also picked up some solid Nickel/Dime type guys as undrafted free agents. My OL selections in the draft have all been very good, no busts, and I get good quality backups out of the free agency periods...

[Groundhog]

I haven't had any problems with the draft. I'm far from a football guy, and know next to nothing, but a good portion of my roster is made up from draft picks from rounds one through three. I lead the league in first round draft picks on my roster by about 2.

I just stay away from players in the first rounds with high volatility, and go after nothing but those players in rounds 4+.

I should also note that my teams generally do pretty decent. I make the playoffs most years, and those years that I don't it is generally due to an injury to a major offensive player on my roster.

[Leonidas]

I think (just my theory) the grades you get for the draft reflect a correlation between player ratings and getting guys who fit positions the game identifies as team needs.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Leonidas -- Thanks for bringing that up, I meant to comment on it yesterday.

As far as I've been able to tell, filling needs is the primary factor in determining your draft grade.

I may be wrong, but that's what 40+ seasons has led me to believe, so much so that I rarely bother to look at the draft grade at all anymore.

[Fido]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Actually I'd forgotten that I ran Fido's util on part of my universe folder that I copied to my desktop machine last night. Here's a little draft data as I've gotten later in my career.

2014
1(32)--QB Lionel Forbes--started for me for 9 years before injury ended his career--86.3 career rating--led us to 2 Super Bowl wins.
2(32)--DE Roosevelt Branch--played 3 years in his initial contract with me and didn't start because of a talent glut at DE, but went on to be a starter for 9 seasons with a couple other teams.
3(32)--SS Gene Burgess--played out his initial contract with me (3 yrs) not starting--unsigned in 2017 free agency, but picked up midseason and became a starter in Philly--7 games, 7 starts. Held the "distinction" in 2018 of being the highest-potential-rated non-kicker who wasn't picked up by anyone (24/48).
5(32)--MLB Jeffrey Dronett--2-year career and out of football. No starts.
6(32)--T Arnold Borders--2 and out. No starts.
7(32)--G Walter Young--3 and out. 2 starts.

2015
1(28)--DT Dana Shull--11-year starter, 3 10+ sack seasons
2(28)--FB Marvin Van-Pelt--sure-fire Hall Of Famer--11 All Pro awards in a row
3(28)--G Cary Holman--5-year career, one as starter
4(28)--DT Rufus Dewitt--6-year career, 2-year starter--had 59 tackles one year as a DT. Nice for a DT.
5(28)--DE Christian Fox--played in 5 games in 2-year career
6(28)--TE Brant Giles--5 year career, mostly as backup, started 4 games

2016
1(5)--G Bryce Laudenback--9-year starter, retired early due to injury--never allowed more than 5 sacks in a season--had 35+ KRB thrice
2(5)--G Edgar Thweat--10-year starter for three different teams
3(5)--TE Allen Gaines--10-year starter for two different teams--had 85 catches for 1347 yards in his best season--50+ catches 7 times
4(5)--T Lewis Krzyzanowski--10-year starter for Atlanta (career still going) at LT--allowed 11 sacks as a rookie starter, 8 in his second year, but then had 5 seasons with 5 or less sacks allowed in 16 starts
4(31)--DE Tim Anglewicz--journeyman DE--still in the league after 10 seasons and 54 starts for various teams
5(1)--T Jessie Jack--another journeyman--started 60 games in 8-year career
5(5)--T Shane Kelley--111 starts in 10 seasons
6(5)--K CJ Hickman--excellent kicker for 10 seasons--40 for 45 FG's one year--career long 62 yarder
6(11)--QB Kelvin Branch--still in league after 10 years and 25,662 passing yards, career rating: 84.4. 105 starts

2017
1(32)--CB Bucky Miasek--became stud cover corner with near-maxed out ratings in all coverage categories--9-year starter, still in the league, 51 career INT's, 6 for TD's
2(32)--FL Jessie Grier--59 starts in 9 seasons--best year: 67 catches, 836 yards, 6 TD's
3(20)--OLB Mark Groce--3 years and out
3(32)--T Tom Dupree--1 year and out
4(32)--DT Clifton Ireson--28 starts in 5-season career


So...over those four years I had:

1st-Rounders: 4. All four became solid contributors. One (Miasek) was a bona-fide superstar, sure-fire HOF guy, one of the best ever.

2nd-Rounders: 4. 3 became full-time starters. The fourth was a contributor. One (FB Van Pelt) was the best at his position for 11 years.

3rd-Rounders: 5. 1 became a very good starter. None of the other 4 amounted to much

4th-Rounders: 4. 3 journeyman part-time starters. One full-time starter.

5th-Rounders: 4. 2 solid part-time starters. Two guys who never did anything.

6th-Rounders: 4. 1 good QB. 1 good kicker. Two guys who never did anything.

7th-Rounders: 1. Didn't do much of anything.

I definitely wouldn't call it random.

I really like this info. Hope you don't mind, but I'm going to steal that for the next version of the reporter. I'm going to expand the draft page and include years playes and some basic career stats for each position (like the top half of your post).

It will also list out a roster breakdown. Something to tell you that there are 22 first round draft picks on active rosters which accounts for 22% (completely fictional numbers).

Thanks for the inadvertent suggestion.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Fido
I really like this info. Hope you don't mind, but I'm going to steal that for the next version of the reporter. I'm going to expand the draft page and include years playes and some basic career stats for each position (like the top half of your post). I'm glad you live far away from me, because if I saw you right now I might be tempted to try to kiss you. :eek:

[Ben E Lou]

Dola--

As Easy Mac found out, it took awhile to click all those links and find all that info. This would be a WONDERFUL addition.

[Fido]

Originally posted by SkyDog
I'm glad you live far away from me, because if I saw you right now I might be tempted to try to kiss you. :eek:

Whew then I'm glad I love so far away too.

[Fido]

Dola -
Originally posted by SkyDog
Dola--

As Easy Mac found out, it took awhile to click all those links and find all that info. This would be a WONDERFUL addition.

Any suggestions for stats to include?

All would have years played - "2003-2006", Games played and started - "23 Games (6 starts)". But how about for the position specific career stats

QB - Att-Comp Yards TD Int Rating
FB/RB - Rush Yards TD Rec Yards TD
FL/SE/TE Rec Yards TD
OL - ??????
DL/LB - Tackles Sacks
DB - Int Def Tackles
P - Punt Average, % of punts in 20
K- FG, FGA, PAT, PATA

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Fido
Dola -


Any suggestions for stats to include?

All would have years played - "2003-2006", Games played and started - "23 Games (6 starts)". But how about for the position specific career stats

QB - Att-Comp Yards TD Int Rating
FB/RB - Rush Yards TD Rec Yards TD
FL/SE/TE Rec Yards TD
OL - ??????
DL/LB - Tackles Sacks
DB - Int Def Tackles
P - Punt Average, % of punts in 20
K- FG, FGA, PAT, PATA Those look pretty good. Here are the few things I'd add:

FB/RB: ypc
OL: KRB, KRB%, OPct.
DL/LB: Assists
DB: PDPct.

Everyone: # of times they were on the all-league team. (I wouldn't bother to differentiate between 1st and 2nd for these purposes.)

[Darkiller]

Originally posted by cthomer5000
This is interesting. I hadn't really noticed this until you pointed it out, but I'm now in 2047. In all those drafts, a QB was taken #1 overall only three times. Two of those selections were by me.

Discounting the #1 picks I had, the computer has gone QB 1 out of 35 times.



In my last FOF2004 Draft, not a single QB, not ONE, was selected until the 4th round !!!
And only 3 ended up being selected in the whole Draft !!!

amazing isn't it ?!?!:eek:

[amdaily]

Originally posted by Darkiller
In my last FOF2004 Draft, not a single QB, not ONE, was selected until the 4th round !!!
And only 3 ended up being selected in the whole Draft !!!

amazing isn't it ?!?!:eek:

Very amazing, especially considering there is an overabundance in the draft in terms of adjusted ratings.

But then again, perhaps the overabundance occurs because AI teams do not value them enough. Maybe it's caused by something else…

Either way, I think QB roles need reevaluated. First there is the stat problem (4,000 yards, 100+ rating), then the AI not choosing QB's in the draft, and finally far to many available in the later rounds of the draft. Something just doesn't seem right.

[Darkiller]

Haven't really experience the 100+ ratings that much, as I can recall...but even post-patch, the game still has way too many 4000+ yard passers.
Even in a mature league.

[Ksyrup]

It's times like this when reading these threads actually hurts the game-playing experience. Now I'm going to have to force myself to take the QB when logic suggests I should, rather than take a player at another position when I have a choice between the two.

[jaeenox]

Originally posted by Havok
At first i liked the fact that drafting was kinda of a crap shoot in FOF2k4. I thought it would make drafting much more interesting. But now its just starting to piss me off.

I've probally played through about 15 seasons so far and almost every freaking guy i pick sucks. My scout is "Excellent" at young talent, either average or better everywhere else and "Excellent" at linebackers. So in my last draft i take a very very nice looking MLB with the 11th pick, he of course turns out to be about half as good as my scout said so now im stuck with his contract for 5 years. This is just 1 example, i have dozens more just like it. There dam combine ratings dont seem to matter much either. I draft a Left tackle with 35 or so reps on the strength test., he turns out to have like 8 blocking strength.

Another thing that doesn't make much sense is the draft grade you get at the end of the draft. The best i've ever gotten is a B+ and that was because the reciever i drafted like 6th overall actually turned out to be pretty good. But usally i seem to get a B or lower and not a single guy i draft is worth starting. In my latest season the best grade in the draft went to the Bears, everyone they drafted completely sucked except for the DT they got 2nd overall. He was pretty nice, but because they drafted 1 good player with the 2 overall pick they deserve a A+ rating??? i used to like building a crappy team through drafting, but now thats impossible. Now i gotta do it through free agency which isn't much different from the previous game. Guys still ask for WAY WAY to much money just because they're a starter. Even if they suck, espically defensive lineman asking for 10-20 million a season or quaterbacks asking for like 4 million there first season then up to 25 million 3 seasons later, gimmie a break.

Anyway, back to the draft. It just seems like no matter how much i study each players scores or how high the Bureau rating is they still end up being subpar players at best. Its getting extremely frustrating, i wanted the drafting to be a little more challenging but this just isnt fun for me.

[No Fanboy hostle replies :)]

Havok, I will try to address your concerns in order.

1) Drafting is not a crap shoot. I have never had a draft lower than A. I have taken the Bears to the playoffs every year so I am usually drafting in the lower 3rd\4th of the draft. I only draft players at a position where there is a definite need--draftees MUST have significant playing time to develop. The ONLY thing I look at is the "adjusted" column. This rates players by the importance of their position--i.e. a good T is much harder to come by than a C, etc. I draft the best player at a position I need with little analysis--sometimes I will look at the top 2 or 3 in that position, if near the top of the list. If the top player has a high volatility then move on to a player you feel more comfortable with. Pass on players at positions you don't need even if they look great--a lesser player playing full time will quickly surpass the highly rated bench warmer.

2) Ignore the reps and blocking strength stats, all you need is someone who can block, not every block needs to be a pancake. I just finished a season last night where my LG was 1ST Team ALL NFL with 0\0 blocking strength. He led the league with 49 KRB.

3) The Bears probably got an A+ because they filled their needs properly, not just drafted the best players.

4) Teams with 10+ million dollar a year players can't compete. Only the QB should ever approach this amount, trade WR, T, and DE the year before they become free agents to move up in the draft. Package that overpriced DE and your 1(25) draft pick for a 1(6) or so. Your pretty much guaranteed a quality replacement at 1/10th the cost.

5) Be patient, in the reference thread there are several good articles addressing these topics, but one in particular may help. It is an analysis of the 5th year leap made by some draft picks, who make dramatic gains when hitting maturity. I have seen this leap as early as the 2nd year if the draftee was a 1st year starter. There is also a good discussion of volatility also.

[Ksyrup]

Originally posted by jaeenox
I only draft players at a position where there is a definite need--draftees MUST have significant playing time to develop. The ONLY thing I look at is the "adjusted" column. This rates players by the importance of their position--i.e. a good T is much harder to come by than a C, etc. I draft the best player at a position I need with little analysis--sometimes I will look at the top 2 or 3 in that position, if near the top of the list. If the top player has a high volatility then move on to a player you feel more comfortable with. Pass on players at positions you don't need even if they look great--a lesser player playing full time will quickly surpass the highly rated bench warmer.

With a couple of exceptions, this is basically what I do. Do you guys have a good feel for what volatility rating represents the line of risk/reward for the 1st couple of rounds? I've been staying away from guys with a 55 or higher with early round picks, although I usually see them later on and they have turned out quite well. I think I might be passing on guys I should take a shot at, at least once in a while.

[Fonzie]

I suspect that the lack of early-pick QBs is related to, or caused by, the wealth of QB talent available in every draft. Every year I see a ton of 40-50+ rated QB prospects slip down to the late rounds or out of the draft entirely. So, if the AI teams already have good quality QBs that they've picked up in the lower rounds in previous years, why should they bother trying to draft a stud early?

I suspect this, or something like it, must be the case in my league, as my most recent season saw over a dozen QBs with ratings over 90, and only a handful under 80. Thus, many teams appear to already have good talent at QB and don't need have a pressing "perceived need" for a QB. So, the AI seems to be working OK, but the QB talent level may be a bit off.

Any thoughts on this?

[fantastic flying froggies]

Originally posted by Fido
Dola -


Any suggestions for stats to include?

All would have years played - "2003-2006", Games played and started - "23 Games (6 starts)". But how about for the position specific career stats

QB - Att-Comp Yards TD Int Rating
FB/RB - Rush Yards TD Rec Yards TD
FL/SE/TE Rec Yards TD
OL - ??????
DL/LB - Tackles Sacks
DB - Int Def Tackles
P - Punt Average, % of punts in 20
K- FG, FGA, PAT, PATA

How bout return TDs for special team players ?
Int and PD% also for LB ?

[Fido]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Those look pretty good. Here are the few things I'd add:

FB/RB: ypc
OL: KRB, KRB%, OPct.
DL/LB: Assists
DB: PDPct.

Everyone: # of times they were on the all-league team. (I wouldn't bother to differentiate between 1st and 2nd for these purposes.)

Would something like this work for you?
http://fidosoft.com/FOF/Hosted/FOFReporter/sample/results_2005_draft.htm

[Passacaglia]

Fonzie, I can't say for sure if your theory is true, but it makes a lot of sense. There are always plenty of QBs in the draft pool. I haven't witnessed this myself (since I've had very little chance to play FOF since it came out), but if there are so few getting drafted, that would explain why.

[Ksyrup]

Originally posted by Fido
Would something like this work for you?
http://fidosoft.com/FOF/Hosted/FOFReporter/sample/results_2005_draft.htm

Wow.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Ksyrup
Wow. I'll even say it backwards. Wow.

That looks GREAT Fido!

--Ben

[Havok]

thanx everyone for your help.... i'm starting to get better and better at drafting now. Just taking my time a little more and giving some guys more playing time to develop.

Now all i want in FOF is for guys not to request rediculous contracts ALL THE TIME.....even guys with high loyalty request the most outrageous contracts half the time. Then this game would be perfect!

[Troll]

about the high contracts, i have noticed that some people request outrageous contracts, i had to sign my 2 time league MVP(he won it in his second and third year and then held out before the final year of his rookie contract) QB to a 4 year 110 million dollar contract. I was hoping that he would atleast finish out his rookie contract without holding out so I could franchise him for the rest of his career. After signing that contract I had to release some people, including my WR coming off a 1700 yard season, my aging DT coming off a disappointing year, one of my starting Gaurds, and a cornerback. He responds by throwing for over 4000 yards and 31 tds, running for 450 yards and 6 tds and winning the league MVP, Offensive player of the year, All-Pro 1st team QB, League Championship MVP, and most importanly a super bowl ring. After the season he agrees to restructure his contract to a 6 year 59 million dollar deal. If u give the guys the contract sometimes they will renegotitate a year or so later at a fair price.

[RedKingGold]

Fido,

Damn you! I have no desire for TPF anymore! You are taking their best attributes and placing them in FOF2K4.

Please mutate with Jim to form the best football game ever!!!!!

J/K
Excellent, Excellent, beyond words great work
Mike

Yes, I am a fanboy

[GoSeahawks]

Here is a little looksie at what my drafts have been like...

Draft History
2004
1 (15) QB Broderick Ellard- Started for 8 seasons in Seattle. Brought home two Super Bowl rings before I traded him off to Buffalo where he spent two years being injured. 24,391 yards, 154 td, 89int, 88.3 QB Rating.
2 (47) RG Randal Moreno- 2 years backup and 7 years starting in Seattle. Missed almost two and a half seasons because of injuries before he retired.
3 (79) RCB Jackie Fulton- 6 seasons, 3 teams. Only started 5 games.
3 (89) FB Corwin Herndon- 11 seasons in Seattle, 7 as a starter. Still leads the team in career receptions in 2022.
5 (143) SLB Herman Hamilton- 8 seasons in the NFL, 3 with Seattle. Started one year in 2012 with the Titans. 172 career tackles, 2.5 sacks and 4 interceptions. Started a grand total of 17 NFL games.
6 (175) LT Kim Dreisbach- 1 and out.
7 (207) LDE Roman Behrendt- 2 and out. Started all 22 games he played in during that time. He was truly a late round boom, before a knee injury sidelined him permanently.

2005
1 (31) SILB Matt Wolf- 12 seasons, 4 with Seattle. 66 career starts, 433 tackles, 8 sacks and 6 interceptions. I thought he would turn out special, but he never progressed the way I would have liked.
2 (63) LDE Max Kerr- He played 5 season, 4 with Seattle and one with Tennessee. Kerr started only 6 games in his career. He was a pretty big disappointment.
3 (95) SE Phil Matthews- He spent two seasons in Seattle before being released and retiring.
4 (127) CB Trent Philyaw- Three and out.
6 (191) LT Preston Upshaw- 2 and out.
7 (223) DE Skip Goodwin- Skip stayed in Seattle for 5 seasons before being released. He never started a game.

2006
1 (19) LT Jerry Blackwell- Jerry was injury prone from day one. He started 13 games his rookie season before going down with a knee injury. He attempted a comeback the next season, but only lasted three games. From there his career was over.
2 (47) SE Bart Kruk- Kruk played 8 professional season with 4 teams. His best season was just 276 yards and two touchdowns.
3 (83) MLB Antoine Argueta- Antoine played 8 seasons as well. He mainly played the backup role, but managed 26 starts throughout his career. He never made a sack or an interception throughout his time in the NFL.
4 (115) QB Luther Goodwin- He played 3 seasons with two teams. Goodwin only had one start in just 8 NFL games. His QB rating was just 63.
5 (147) C Sammie Whitmore- He played 7 seasons with 4 different teams. He was a starter three of those seasons and was able to earn 39 key run blocks in one season.
6 (179) RG Joseph Chandler- Joseph started 15 games in two seasons with Seattle, but was cut after and was never to play again.
7 (211) DT Chuck Tounge- Chuck played 15 seasons in the NFL. Luckily he spent 13 with Seattle where he started for 10. He amassed 529 career tackles and 74.5 sacks. His sack total is still a record for Seattle.

2007
1 (22) CB Wayne Dobbins- Wayne played 14 seasons in Seattle. He was a great starter all the way up to 2017 where injuries started taking their toll on the old man. He owns the Seattle record with 50 career interceptions.
2 (54) FS Neal Jamison- Neal played in the NFL for 13 years, 10 with Seattle. He was a starter for 9 years of his career. In the end he had 631 tackles and 18 interceptions.
3 (86) RT Morris Ward- 3 years and out. Only had 2 starts.
4 (118) TE Rodney DeVault- Rodney played 12 seasons, 7 with Seattle. He was a full time starter in just 4 of those seasons, but he managed 3,163 yards in his career.
5 (150) FB Brad McIntyre- 3 and out.
6 (182) P Henry Aucoin- He is currently in his 16th year with Seattle. He has proven to be one of the games greatest punters.
7 (214) QB Michael Lockett- 2 and out.

2008
1 (11) MLB Deron Halvorson- Deron played 12 seasons in the NFL, 9 with Seattle. He earned 867 tackles, 37.5 sacks, and 7 interceptions throughout his career. He was the most dominant MLB in the game for nearly 5 years at one point. Injuries slowed him down in the middle of his career. He never played a full season after 2012.
2 (43) LT Tommie Wilcox- 4 and out. Never started a game.
3 (75) MLB Earl Reese- Played in Seattle from 2008 to 2012, but was on the inactive list most of the time. He never earned a career start behind Halvorson.
4 (107) QB Dave Lowe- In 2022 he is sitting in the free agency pool looking to be picked up. He played 3 seasons in Seattle before being traded. He only started for three years on three different teams. He has been a career journeyman and has played in 10 different cities. He has passed for 12,170 yards and 65 touchdowns. His QB rating is 71.4.
5 (139) FL Dan Grove- I cut him before he came into camp. He was picked up by Cleveland and played one season there.
6 (171) RB Justin Gardner- Played the third string running back role for 5 years in Seattle before being released for good.
7 (203) CB Patrick Cushman- Pat played 4 seasons, 3 with Seattle. Started only 9 games throughout his career with just one pick.

2009
1 (32) FS Earnest Schott- He played for 8 seasons, 6 in Seattle. He was a starter for just 3 seasons in his career. He managed 299 tackles and 4 interceptions.
2 (10)- RB Walter Fisk- In his 14th year in the league he just broke the 10,000-yard barrier. I traded him away after the second season because I saw running back in the draft that I liked better. The trade ended up working in my favor.
3 (32)- LG Lamar Ellis- After his first two seasons of developing, he earned a starting spot in 2011. From there he has been a consistent 30+ KRB a year. He has been an all pro many times and will surely be in the Seahawks Hall of Fame.
4 (32) LG Andre Stockland- After two seasons I traded him away. He went on to start for 4 different teams over the next 7 seasons. He also earned pro bowl nomination. Stockland is currently playing for the Cowboys.
5 (32) DE Chester Goodwin- He played 4 seasons with two teams. Chester never started and totaled just one career sack.
6 (32) CB Jared Lauher- He played for 11 seasons and started 54 games, but only played in Seattle for five years. In the end he had 282 tackles but just two picks. The reason I got rid of him after five seasons was his lack of interceptions.
7 (32) FL Nicky Randle- He played in just 4 games for Seattle in his only year on the active roster before being left for dead in free agency.

2010
1 (32) QB Bill Sutter- Sutter backed up for a season until Ellard went down with injuries. Then in 2012, Seattle traded Ellard and gave the starting job to Sutter. In 2022, Sutter has the highest career QB Rating at just fewer than 97. He is hall of fame bound.
2 (32) CB Derrick Norton- He played in 7 seasons, 6 with Seattle. Always played the backup role, but still managed 37 career starts. He had just one interception in his career. It was in his rookie season and he ran it back 25 yards for a touchdown.
3 (32) RT Reggie McKinnie- 3 and out. Only played in 5 games.
4 (32) DT Isaac Freeman- 3 and out.
6 (32) FB Bennie Tiller- 2 and out.
7 (32) TE Charles Rosario- He played two years with different teams. He managed 4 starts and had just 92 receiving yards in that time. He never scored a touchdown.

2011
1 (6) RB Bryant Rivera- I had to make a big trade in order to obtain this guy. He was one of the highest rated prospects ever to come out of college. His only downside was that scouts thought he was totally developed, and boy were they wrong. He started at an 81/81, but in a matter of a year or two he was in the low 90’s. He went on to play in Seattle for 6 seasons where he set the all time rushing mark of 1,894 yards in a season, which was later broken. After that, Seattle ran into cap problems and were forced to trade him away to Cincinnati. From there he went on to set the all-time rushing record with 13,711 yards. In 2021 he suffered a major injury and will probably never play again. Right now his record is in jeopardy as a running back for Oakland is about to break it.
3 (23) DE Irving Huntley- He played 4 seasons then left the league without ever doing much.
4 (23) TE Victor Forte- 3 and out.
5 (23) SE Mathew Kyrouac- He played 7 seasons as a backup, 5 in Seattle. He put up good number when he played, but he was always behind good receivers.
7 (23) DT Winston Wheeler- 3 and out. He only played in 12 games.

[dacman]

Originally posted by Fonzie
I suspect that the lack of early-pick QBs is related to, or caused by, the wealth of QB talent available in every draft. Every year I see a ton of 40-50+ rated QB prospects slip down to the late rounds or out of the draft entirely.

Have you ever actually signed and played any of these guys? I did a kill Arizona, move them to LA, rebuild dynasty and I found most of these guys are truly crap. Even with loads of PT, they don't develop into anything useful except on rare occasions. Not sure if that's representative of the way it always is, but that was my experience.

[Easy Mac]

just saw that report Fido... Told my girlfriend I'll be ready for her in about an hour.

[Fonzie]

Originally posted by dacman
Have you ever actually signed and played any of these guys? I did a kill Arizona, move them to LA, rebuild dynasty and I found most of these guys are truly crap. Even with loads of PT, they don't develop into anything useful except on rare occasions. Not sure if that's representative of the way it always is, but that was my experience.

Yeah, I have signed many of them as undrafted free agents. I've found a few that boomed, but most of them end up remaining static or becoming complete busts. So this may not be a major source of QB talent, but it might contribute just enough to tip many team's needs away from the QB position.

Or not. :p

I don't really know, I'm just proposing one way of explaining the lack of top draft pick QBs.

[GoSeahawks]

Originally posted by Fonzie
I suspect that the lack of early-pick QBs is related to, or caused by, the wealth of QB talent available in every draft. Every year I see a ton of 40-50+ rated QB prospects slip down to the late rounds or out of the draft entirely. So, if the AI teams already have good quality QBs that they've picked up in the lower rounds in previous years, why should they bother trying to draft a stud early?

I suspect this, or something like it, must be the case in my league, as my most recent season saw over a dozen QBs with ratings over 90, and only a handful under 80. Thus, many teams appear to already have good talent at QB and don't need have a pressing "perceived need" for a QB. So, the AI seems to be working OK, but the QB talent level may be a bit off.

Any thoughts on this?
Damn! You have that many QB's rated over 90?!?!? In my 20 year franchise I have only seen one game generated player with a 90. Here is how the top 20 look in 2022.

One 90+ (This guy is rated exactly 90)
Four 80-89
Four 70-79
Eight 60-69
Three 54-59

90+ (1st round pick)
80-89 (Four 1st round)
70-79 (Three 1st round, One 7th round)
60-69 (Four 1st round, Two 6th round, One 7th round, One undrafted)
54-59 (One 5th round, Two undrafted)

Overall there were 12 first round picks in the top twenty. None of these guys were picked between the second and fourth rounds. After that there was 1 in the 5th, 2 in the 6th, 2 in the 7th and two undrafted.

To me this doesn't sound too out of the ordinary. I am thinking you are probably in a great QB era if you have a dozen QB's rated over 90, or I am comparativley in a really bad QB era. Either way I find it interesting that you are getting such different results.

Also, I wanted to point out the slot these first round QB's were selected. (The highest selection out of any of these QB's was the 4th overall)

1 through 5= 2
6 through 10= 1
11 through 15= 3
16 through 20= 2
21 through 25= 2
26 through 32= 1

[GoSeahawks]

Dola

Fido,
When might we see that updated utility available for download? I have tomorrow off and I have already fallen madly in love with FOF Reporter 1.5b. By the way, you are doing unbelievable work and I would really like to thank you again.

[Fido]

Originally posted by GoSeahawks
Dola

Fido,
When might we see that updated utility available for download? I have tomorrow off and I have already fallen madly in love with FOF Reporter 1.5b. By the way, you are doing unbelievable work and I would really like to thank you again.

What are you worried about the next version for? You don't even have the most recent (1.6) :)

As for 1.7, its in th can and has been sent to my pre-release users list (something new taht I'm doing.) I'll probably post the version this weekend. Itdeosn't contain everything that I wanted to , but, thanks to SD's draft information suggestion I think it has enough to be a worthwhile step up.