Kentucky Derby 2004

[Chubby]

Who's going? Who does everyone like? Where can I find a list of bands that are playing on Thursday? (I can't find it anywhere, all I can find is last year's press release) I have my short list of horses I'll be looking at assuming they are healthy that weekend. I'll be in the infield with my dad and some other people :)

[rkmsuf]

I don't know how you really "like" anyone. I've seen nothing to suggest there's much to hang your hat on in terms of conviction.

The favorite will probably go off at 5-1 or morre and I'd do some price shopping and look for potential at long odds.

[ISiddiqui]

I think 'Tapit' is a good horse to bet on. He won the Wood in stunning fashion! And the winner of the Wood has won 3 of the last 4 Kentucky Derbies.

[rkmsuf]

Tapit will need to take another step forward. It was not an overly impressive time in the Wood. Could happen but he'll be an underlay based on hype alone.

[Bosco]

After all the money I lost last year because of Funny Cide I'm hoping my luck will change this time around.

[Bosco]

What about Smarty Jones, 6 for 6 and just won the Arkansas Derby.

[FishFan]

SMARTY JONES can't go the distance.

THE CLIFF'S EDGE is 2-for-2 at Churchill and coming off a win in the Bluegrass at Keeneland. I'll take a long look at that horse before hitting the window.

[Tigercat]

I'm going to my first derby, woo! I like tapit and lionheart, because I think they both have lots of heart(lionheart was appropriately named IMO). Betting on the horses that you think have the most fighting spirit has always been my favorite method. Because if you lose, well then you can be still be proud of the horse, if you win, well you have the pride and the extra bills in the wallet.

[GrantDawg]

My wife loves Tapit (she was a big Pulpit fan). When is Kickstand going to give us his breakdown?

[ISiddiqui]

It was not an overly impressive time in the Wood.

True, but a very impressive come from behind.

My horse-riding friend so far hasn't been impressed with anyone until Tapit won the Wood the way he did. He was toying with the lead horse when he caught up to him. A sight to see.

[Bosco]

Every time I hear the name Tapit I think about Tap That Ass.

[QuikSand]

I haven't done a deep analysis, but I expect to bet for value. I think the best colt I've seen this year has been READ THE FOOTNOTES, but he clearly has distance questions. However, he had a nice work today, and if he looks to be in shape, I might take a plunge at the right price.

I'm also really hoping that ROCK HARD TEN makes the field, as I think he'd fetch a price and has a real shot. It sounds like ST AVERIL is also heading into the field, and I think he's better than his Santa Anita Derby effort.

I will probably be rooting for TAPIT, because I really like Michael Dickinson and thought his effort in the Wood was the stuff of Derby winners - but I don't expect to get a good enough price to make it a smart bet. I'd guess that 5-1 will be my minimum, and he'll probably be shorter than that.

Could be a great year for a bomber, though.

[FishFan]

Dickinson winning the Derby would be great.

The Mad Scientist has done some marvelous things with some horses. I remember watching him score a bomb with a horse who had not made a start in three years. I've heard of some strange training facilities with a turf surface that is patented. I can't remember where I heard that, but the stories about this guy are something else. He usually only trains older turf horses, so seeing him with a legitimate Derby contender is something special.

[Honolulu Blue]

Futures betting for the Kentucky Derby, courtesty of Bet Bet (http://www.betbet.com/). Four things I should warn you about:

1) These are straight odds, and not pari-mutuel. So that means if you like TAPIT at 5-1, that's what you'll get paid, no matter what. The bad news is...
2) If the horse doesn't run, for any reason, you lose your bet.
3) Also, I took these odds in the early afternoon, before the Coolmore. They're down at the present time, and I'm sure a few of them will be adjusted before they go back up.
4) As always, these are for entertainment purposes only.

ACTION THIS DAY - 40
BIRDSTONE - 30
BORREGO - 18
BREAKAWAY - 75
CASTLEDALE - 30
CONSECRATE - 100
EDDINGTON - 18
FIRE SLAM - 50
FRIENDS LAKE - 20
HARVARD AVENUE - 100
IMPERIALISM - 15
LIMEHOUSE - 30
LION HEART - 15
MASTER DAVID - 7
MINISTER ERIC - 20
MUSTANFAR - 100
POLLARD'S VISION - 20
POMEROY - 50
PREACHINATTHEBAR - 25
PRO PRADO - 60
QUINTON'S GOLD RUSH - 100
READ THE FOOTNOTES - 12
ROCK HARD TEN - 10
SMARTY JONES - 6
SONG OF THE SWORD - 60
ST. AVERIL - 30
SUAVE - 50
TAPIT - 5
THE CLIFF'S EDGE - 6
TRICKY TABOO - 100
VALUE PLUS - 40
WIMBLEDON - 15

[Honolulu Blue]

Bet Bet (http://www.betbet.com) finally posted their updated odds. The same rules as above apply:

ACTION THIS DAY - 45
BIRDSTONE - 20
BORREGO - 15
BREAKAWAY - 75
CASTLEDALE - 22
CONSECRATE - 100
EDDINGTON - 15
FIRE SLAM - 60
FRIENDS LAKE - 15
HARVARD AVENUE - 100
IMPERIALISM - 15
LIMEHOUSE - 30
LION HEART - 12
MASTER DAVID - 7
MINISTER ERIC - 30
MUSTANFAR - 100
POLLARD'S VISION - 28
POMEROY - 50
PREACHINATTHEBAR - 40
PRO PRADO - 50
QUINTONS GOLD RUSH - 25
READ THE FOOTNOTES - 20
ROCK HARD TEN - 35
SMARTY JONES - 7
SONG OF THE SWORD - 40
ST. AVERIL - 40
SUAVE - 50
TAPIT - 5
THE CLIFF'S EDGE - 6
TRICKY TABOO - 150
VALUE PLUS - 50
WIMBLEDON - 15
SINISTER G - 80

Most of the odds have been updated a little. QGR dropped a lot, as expected. SINISTER G is a late addition.

[FishFan]

I'm hoping to get TAPIT at 7-1 or 8-1...

[Franklinnoble]

I'm hoping to get TAPIT at 7-1 or 8-1...
I'd be shocked if he goes off at that price.

[QuikSand]

I'd be shocked if he goes off at that price.

I'm with Franklin. I figure about 9/2.

[QuikSand]

ROCK HARD TEN is a fascinating case... lots of buzz that he's primed to actually win this thing, but he's sitting (last I checked) at #23 on the earnings list, and needs a few more bow-outs to just make the field.

For a future bet right now, 35-1 isn't ridiculous. But if he actually makes the field, I guess he drops to 12 or so.

[Chubby]

I've heard so so things about Rock Hard Ten.

A lot will depend on post positions with something like 20 horses entered in the Derby (or so I hear). Draw is Wed which is good cause I'll get to see it before I fly out Thursday morning.

[Franklinnoble]

ROCK HARD TEN is a fascinating case... lots of buzz that he's primed to actually win this thing, but he's sitting (last I checked) at #23 on the earnings list, and needs a few more bow-outs to just make the field.

For a future bet right now, 35-1 isn't ridiculous. But if he actually makes the field, I guess he drops to 12 or so.
I read someplace that he might play a spoiler in the Preakness if he doesn't make the Derby field.

I don't really see a triple crown winner happening this year. In fact, it would not surprise me to never see another one... but that's another discussion...

[Franklinnoble]

What about Smarty Jones, 6 for 6 and just won the Arkansas Derby.
Here's a good article on Smarty Jones:

washingtonpost.com (http://www.washingtonpost.com/) It's Been a Long Ride for Smarty Jones
Death of Trainer Began Strange Trip to Derby

By John Scheinman
Special to The Washington Post
Tuesday, April 27, 2004; Page D01

<nitf> </nitf>

LOUISVILLE, April 26 -- It is a story almost too improbable to be true, which, of course, is the perfect kind for a larger-than-life event like the Kentucky Derby.

It begins with a tragedy, the shooting death of a beloved horse trainer and his wife by her son, and winds up -- well, it hasn't just yet -- but its key player now is a fabulous, undefeated thoroughbred from Philadelphia Park, of all places, running Saturday in the most important horse race in the country.

As with all great tales, the end isn't what's most important. It's the getting there.

Seabiscuit and Funny Cide, meet Smarty Jones.

Bob Camac was one of the most popular trainers at Philadelphia Park. Respected, talented and successful beyond his second-tier hometown track, he had several well-off clients, including leading Florida breeder Arthur Appleton.

Camac's stepson was reportedly stealing money from him. He would take checks out of his mailbox, use Camac's stamp, and cash them. The trainer found out and confronted him, demanding he pay the money back. The next day, Dec. 6, 2001, the stepson was waiting outside Camac's house in southern New Jersey with a gun. He shot and killed his own mother and Camac as they opened the front door.

The stepson, Wade Russell, was taken into custody hours later. Earlier this year, he pleaded guilty to aggravated manslaughter and was sentenced to 28 years in prison.

Camac's legacy, however, will be in the starting gate Saturday at Churchill Downs for the 130th Kentucky Derby.

"I galloped horses for [Camac]," said Peter Van Trump, an exercise rider who works for John Servis, the trainer of Smarty Jones. "He was the best person."

The death cast a pall over Philadelphia racing, and a couple that bred horses and sent them to Camac to race decided to get out of the business.

"We had already started slowing down," said Pat Chapman, 63, who along with her husband Roy, 77, a former auto dealer, sold their Someday Farm outside of Philadelphia and moved down to Boca Grand, Fla. "We were in the process of selling horses, and when he was murdered, it was such a blow to everybody.

"Bob had handled everything. We said, 'We can't go through another trainer.' "

The Chapmans always sent their weanlings from Someday Farm to Bridlewood Farm in Ocala, Fla., to be broken and prepared to race. George Isaacs, the trainer at Bridlewood, knew the Chapmans were clearing out their stock, but liked two of the youngsters so much, he called one day and said, "I don't think you should sell these weanlings."

"And I think it kind of opened their eyes," Servis said. "And Mrs. Chapman said to Mr. Chapman, 'You know, we sold everything. These are the last two horses. If we sell these horses, we're out of the business.' And I think Mr. Chapman responded, 'Well, let's keep these two and see how it goes. You know, I'm not ready to get out.' "

One of the was a smallish but leggy chestnut, the result of a mating recommended by Camac -- Smarty Jones.

"Early in his 2-year-old year, [Isaacs] talked to my husband again and said, 'Mr. Chapman, this is the horse you've been waiting for,' " Pat Chapman said.

Isaacs, in fact, was so excited, he told the Chapmans to find a trainer like Camac who would be willing to race outside Philadelphia Park. Smarty Jones, named for Pat Chapman's grandmother, who was nicknamed "Smarty" as a young girl, was going to take them places.

The Chapmans hired Servis, 45, on the recommendation of a friend, trainer Mark Reid, because he regularly finished among the leaders at Philadelphia Park and also had major out-of-town victories with his filly Jostle in the late 1990s.

Isaacs shipped Smarty Jones up to Philadelphia Park last May. Servis breezed the colt and saw the talent right away. But one morning, schooling in the starting gate, Smarty Jones reared up and almost killed himself.

"I was in the gate on another horse who had a record from the farm as being bad in the gate," said Maureen Donnelly, Servis's top assistant. "[Smarty Jones] reared up, and it was the worst spot because the bar was right there. As soon as he hit it he went down on his knees. Blood started pouring out of his nose and his eye. Around the track, you see some pretty disgusting things, but that ranked with the worst of them."

A track vet put Smarty Jones on an anti-inflammatory, and the next day sent him to an equine clinic in New Jersey. The horse had two fractures in the orbital area of his left eye and a crushed sinus.

When the call came in from Servis, the Chapmans knew which horse was hurt.

"My husband said, 'I don't have to ask which one,' " Pat Chapman said. "Slow horses don't get hurt."

Smarty Jones, however, was not fazed.

"For as bad as he looked, he was eating and everything," Donnelly said. "He was looking for his hay and feed. He looked horrible and acted like everything was normal."

Not only did Smarty Jones eventually recover, he acted like nothing ever happened. The only thing he had lost was time.

When the colt finally made his debut at Philadelphia Park on Nov. 9 last year, he won by 73/4 lengths. In his following start, in a modest stakes race for Pennsylvania-breds, Smarty Jones won by 15 lengths, running as fast as any 2-year-old in the country.

After a five-length victory on Jan. 3 in a stakes race beyond a mile at Aqueduct, Servis decided this was a horse he could put on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Oaklawn Park owner Charles Cella decided to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Arkansas track by offering $5 million for any horse that could sweep the Southwest Stakes, the Rebel Stakes, the Arkansas Derby and then win the Kentucky Derby. Servis chose this as his objective.

One after another, with consummate professionalism, Smarty Jones picked off the victories. With the nonchalant confidence he showed after his gate injury, he would sit behind the race leader, move when asked by jockey Stewart Elliott, and hold off the closers.

His victory in the Arkansas Derby ran his record to 6 for 6 and stamped him as a legitimate Derby contender. Coming from post position No. 11, on a muddy racetrack, Smarty Jones gained position after a sizzling opening quarter-mile. Despite the taxing start, he led in the stretch by three lengths and crushed the 10 other runners.

Now, if Smarty Jones can win the Kentucky Derby, he will take the $5 million bonus for the Chapmans and earn the $800,000 Derby first prize. It will be the richest single payday in racing history.

"It's been an incredible journey," Pat Chapman said. "It's hard to put into words."

Servis looked relaxed standing outside barn No. 42 at Churchill Downs on Monday while Smarty Jones dozed, his forelegs bound in soothing ice wraps. Five days before the Derby, the trainer couldn't help but allow himself to think Camac continued to have something to do with all the success.

"Is it destiny? I don't know," he said. "Bob was a really good guy. I'm sure he's up there with my uncle having a cup of coffee and reading the Racing Form and loving this. They say everything happens for a reason. How else do you explain it?"



© 2004 The Washington Post Company

[Honolulu Blue]

Bet Bet (http://www.betbet.com) has updated their futures lines, generally for the worse - at least for the ones that I think have a chance. But take a look anyway:

ACTION THIS DAY - 40
BIRDSTONE - 20
BORREGO - 10
BREAKAWAY - 75
CASTLEDALE - 18
CONSECRATE - 100
EDDINGTON - 12
FIRE SLAM - 50
FRIENDS LAKE - 20
HARVARD AVENUE - 100
IMPERIALISM - 12
LIMEHOUSE - 35
LION HEART - 12
MASTER DAVID - 7
MINISTER ERIC - 25
MUSTANFAR - 100
POLLARD'S VISION - 20
POMEROY - 50
PREACHINATTHEBAR - 40
PRO PRADO - 60
QUINTONS GOLD RUSH - 35
READ THE FOOTNOTES - 12
ROCK HARD TEN - 15
SMARTY JONES - 6
SONG OF THE SWORD - 40
ST. AVERIL - 30
SUAVE - 50
TAPIT - 4
THE CLIFF'S EDGE - 6
TRICKY TABOO - 100
VALUE PLUS - 60
WIMBLEDON - 15
SINISTER G - 80

[rkmsuf]

St. Averil at 30 is a good play.

[QuikSand]

St. Averil at 30 is a good play.

He may end up being my pick anyway...

[QuikSand]

By the way, the PP data from DRF is available here (http://mlis.state.md.us/2004rs/billfile/sb0713.htm) for all Derby contenders.

[rkmsuf]

By the way, the PP data from DRF is available here (http://mlis.state.md.us/2004rs/billfile/sb0713.htm) for all Derby contenders.

Man, they really changed the format of the Form.

[QuikSand]

Okay, I guess that link would have been better if you wanted to understand the details of how I, almost singlehandedly, rescued some $9 million in funding for Maryland's Program Open Space initiative from being inadvertently recycled to the general fund. But that's probably not what you were looking for.

Let's try this link:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2004/pps.html

[rkmsuf]

I hate to say it but Tapit might be poised for a big move forward. Can't stand that thing...

St. Averil and Master David look like improvement is likely as well. The only other one would be Lion Heart gate to wire if the others don't get to the front for some reason.

[Chubby]

the Selection Order has been released for picking post positions.

http://kentuckyderby.com/2004/derby_coverage/derby_news/derby_news_04282004.pdf

[Chubby]

The Oaks


Post Position Morning Line* Horse Trainer Jockey
1 4-1 Ashado Todd Pletcher John Velazquez
2 20-1 Hollywood Story John Shirreffs Victor Espinoza
3 30-1 Island Sand Larry Jones Terry Thompson
4 9-2 Halfbridled Richard Mandella Alex Solis
5 8-1 House Of Fortune Ronald McAnally Shane Sellers
6 3-1 Madcap Escapade Frank Brothers Jerry Bailey
7 6-1 Silent Sighs Julio Canani David Flores
8 8-1 Victory U.S.A. Bob Baffert Pat Day
9 8-1 A.P. Adventure Wally Dollase Mike Smith
10 20-1 Last Song Carl Nafzger Edgar Prado
11 20-1 Class Above Bob Baffert Corey Nakatani
12 30-1 Stellar Jayne D. Wayne Lukas Robbie Albarado

[rkmsuf]

With the long run to the first turn, post position doesn't mean a whole lot but of course it's always better to have your choice.

[Chubby]

With the long run to the first turn, post position doesn't mean a whole lot but of course it's always better to have your choice.

I'd rather have my horse in 7 than 20. Tho it looks like Tapit will be forced to the outside (late post pick) which may help him as it seems he's a closer who can still win coming from last.

[rkmsuf]

I'd rather have my horse in 7 than 20. Tho it looks like Tapit will be forced to the outside (late post pick) which may help him as it seems he's a closer who can still win coming from last.

won't matter, that thing will be 15 lengths behind and can just drop in before the first turn...unless of course the pilot f's up which is possible.


Could be more of a bad break for Lion Heart. Definately has the ability to go wire to wire but if forced to come from way outside others may have enough early lick to make it tough.

Who knows though; it's chaos at the gate...

[Chubby]

by the way, if anyone sees someone wearing a blue Sabres hat with the original logo on it in the infield or betting lines, that's me. flyin out tomorrow morning yahoo :)

[Tigercat]

Damn, I was hoping lionheart would be worse than 12-1. Crap. I guess if Wimbledon stays at 15-1 that will be my bet.

[Chubby]

Damn, I was hoping lionheart would be worse than 12-1. Crap. I guess if Wimbledon stays at 15-1 that will be my bet.
opening odds aren't out yet, they will be released after the post position draw at 5pm (on ESPN2 I think)

[Franklinnoble]

opening odds aren't out yet, they will be released after the post position draw at 5pm (on ESPN2 I think)
Has the field of 20 been determined, or does that happen at 5pm, too?

[Chubby]

Has the field of 20 been determined, or does that happen at 5pm, too?
the field is set (see my above link) that is the order they will select their post positions.

[QuikSand]

The 20 are selected - on the link above. The outsiders are officially out, including ROCK HARD TEN.

I'm having a very messy time sorting out this field... I have six horses I want to use right now:

CASTLEDALE
MASTER DAVID
READ THE FOOTNOTES
ST AVERIL
TAPIT
WIMBLEDON

I'll probbaly peel off two of them before focusing in on my main exotic bet strategy. Right now, I'm looking to use WIMBLEDON and CASTLEDALE in the top spot.

[Franklinnoble]

You don't like Tapit?

[Chubby]

Tapit is on his list, he's who I'm looking at right now.

Draw is on ESPN.

[Franklinnoble]

Tapit is on his list, he's who I'm looking at right now.

Draw is on ESPN.
I know, he just wasn't in his top spot... He'd be my favorite right about now, but, then again, I'm a crappy handicapper. :D

[Chubby]

Tapit looks like he'll be starting out of 19 if I had to guess (he hasn't picked yet)

[Chubby]

Tapit will break from 18

[Raven Hawk]

Holy Crap. This field is huge. Anybody could win this thing.

[Franklinnoble]

Will the DRF be posting PP's of the official field soon?

[Chubby]

Interesting odds. Let me see if I can find an online list with odds already.

[Raven Hawk]

Bailey on Wimbledon out of 5 makes me feel warm and fuzzy for some reason. :)

[Chubby]

Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1. Limehouse J. Santos T. Pletcher 30-1
2. Song of the Sword N. Arroyo Jr. J. Pedersen 30-1
3. Lion Heart M. Smith P. Biancone 10-1
4. Action This Day D. Flores R. Mandella 30-1
5. Wimbledon J. Bailey B. Baffert 15-1
6. Friends Lake R. Migliore J. Kimmel 15-1
7. Minister Eric P. Day R. Mandella 30-1
8. Master David A. Solis R. Frankel 12-1
9. St Averil T. Baze R. Becerra 30-1
10. Imperialism K. Desormeaux K. Mulhall 15-1
11. The Cliff's Edge S. Sellers N. Zito 4-1
12. Borrego V. Espinoza B. Greely 20-1
13. Birdstone E. Prado N. Zito 50-1
14. Read the Footnotes R. Albarado R. Violette 12-1
15. Smarty Jones S. Elliott J. Servis 9-2
16. Castledale J. Valdivia Jr. J. Mullins 15-1
17. Pollard's Vision J. Velazquez T. Pletcher 20-1
18. Tapit R. Dominguez M. Dickinson 8-1
19. Pro Prado J. McKee R. Holthus 30-1
20. Quintons Gold Rush C. Nakatani S. Asmussen 20-1

[Franklinnoble]

Right now, I like Wimbledon and Action This Day, but I also like Tapit breaking from outside the main gate. I think Smarty Jones got a crappy draw, and I don't like him at 9-2. Birdstone has a tempting price, as does St Averil...

[Chubby]

Remember, don't bet on the horse that I'm betting on. I want better odds :) Off to the derby, have fun all :D (damn 6am flight)

[rkmsuf]

In order of preference

St. Averil - will be a big price

Lion Heart - 3 is just fine to gain command early

Master David - will probably be an overly and represent value. not much difference between this one and Tapit with Tapit being a severe underlay.

[Honolulu Blue]

I'll have more later, but two quick thoughts:

1) LION HEART is all but certain to lead at some point in the race.
2) SMARTY JONES is very likely to lead at some point.

Yeah, I know, real profound thoughts, but if you can find a proposition bet at your local casino, the bookie around the corner, or even a naive friend that's willing to give you even money or better on those two events, then you should take 'em up on it.

And that is about as sure as I am about anything in this race. Which isn't to say that I don't have thoughts and hunches. But I'm saving those for later.

[QuikSand]

Well, it's practically a given that LION HEART will go for the lead -- it would be surprising, to me, to see anyone run with him for the first half mile or so.

SMARTY JONES is one of several horses who ought to be in fairly forward position - and it's certainly in his game plan to be pushing for the lead, perhaps at the end of the backstretch. I'd say that it's far from given that he will actually get there, though. There are other horses who have more or less the same plan -- READ THE FOTNOTES, POLLARD'S VISION, MINISTER ERIC, BIRDSTONE, BORREGO, and QUINTON's GOLD RUSH all are in that mix. SMARTY JONES might be unbeaten so far - but it's no shoo-in that he's the one from that group to take control at some point.

But to shift gears...

Let's give a look at one of the longer odds horses in the field, shall we? (Since nobody is really doing a comprehensive analysis) How about ST AVERIL?

Disappointing sixth in the Santa Anita - tough to find a real excuse other than a wide trip (which you crtainly can't rule out in the Derby). That explains the lofty odds -- he is in the morning line at 30-1, and probably will stay around there, maybe 25 or so.

Upside -- he had two straight solid efforts in his previous two-turn prep races, winning the G2 Santa Catalina (ahead of MASTER DAVID, incidentally) in solid fashion and then getting nosed out in the G2 San Felipe. Both earned him triple-digit Beyer figures - there are only six int he field who have managed that twice at distances of over one mile.

If the effort in the Santa Anita was the aberration then this horse could move forward not from that effort, but from his previous effort -- and that would put him right in with the logical contenders.

[rkmsuf]

Well, it's practically a given that LION HEART will go for the lead -- it would be surprising, to me, to see anyone run with him for the first half mile or so.

SMARTY JONES is one of several horses who ought to be in fairly forward position - and it's certainly in his game plan to be pushing for the lead, perhaps at the end of the backstretch. I'd say that it's far from given that he will actually get there, though. There are other horses who have more or less the same plan -- READ THE FOTNOTES, POLLARD'S VISION, MINISTER ERIC, BIRDSTONE, BORREGO, and QUINTON's GOLD RUSH all are in that mix. SMARTY JONES might be unbeaten so far - but it's no shoo-in that he's the one from that group to take control at some point.

But to shift gears...

Let's give a look at one of the longer odds horses in the field, shall we? (Since nobody is really doing a comprehensive analysis) How about ST AVERIL?

Disappointing sixth in the Santa Anita - tough to find a real excuse other than a wide trip (which you crtainly can't rule out in the Derby). That explains the lofty odds -- he is in the morning line at 30-1, and probably will stay around there, maybe 25 or so.

Upside -- he had two straight solid efforts in his previous two-turn prep races, winning the G2 Santa Catalina (ahead of MASTER DAVID, incidentally) in solid fashion and then getting nosed out in the G2 San Felipe. Both earned him triple-digit Beyer figures - there are only six int he field who have managed that twice at distances of over one mile.

If the effort in the Santa Anita was the aberration then this horse could move forward not from that effort, but from his previous effort -- and that would put him right in with the logical contenders.

The fact we are on the same horse virtually assures St. Averil of having no chance.

His running style is perfect for the Derby and figures a very good trip if someone decideds to run with Lion Heart. To me it's a real danger that the others all take back and let Lion Heart go. If that happens he's a giant win factor. I'm willing to guess that out of Quentins Gold Rush, Read the Footnotes, Pollard' Vision, or Smarty Jones that one of them engages early.

[QuikSand]

POLLARD'S VISION is a good candidate to run early, presumably along with LION HEART -- I agree. But I don't think any of that lot have the distance in them to win it. I do think that it could set up for a stalkeer this year - despite so much of the hubbub surrounding the deep closers like THE CLIFF'S EDGE and TAPIT. I'll be giving extra consideration to a horse who seems to have tactical speed to stay in the forward half of the pack this year.

I wish I had seen just a little bit more from WIMBLEDON in the SA Derby. I think he's got that push-buttong style that often turns out to be what it takes to escape the crowd... but I'm just not convinced he's good enough, plain and simple. TAPIT fits that profile best I guess, but I don't think we're getting any value there, as so many people are giving Dickinson the benefit of the doubt and just adding ten Beyer points to his last effort. Who else might have the ability to gun it and explode for a final move? ACTION THIS DAY? SMARTY JONES? QUINTON'S GOLD RUSH? All possibles... but I don't really like any of then in this race.

[rkmsuf]

I really dislike Wimbleton here in spite of Bailey choosing that one. The Cliff's Edge ran the big number but will it happen again? I've never been a big fan of that horse anyway.

I'm also not a big fan of Smarty Jones. I think the added distance and more intense pace pressure will do that one in at the top of the lane. No way he'll spurt clear as in some of the other victories.

I could see Quinton's Gold Rush being gunned from the outside.

[QuikSand]

How about CASTLEDALE? Tough to judge off his longshot win in the Santa Anita alone, but I saw a horse in that race who seemed to have all the right moves, and was pretty tough in the final paces. At 15-1 in the morning line (and not a bad guess to go up from there, I'd say) he might be a value pick as well.

[rkmsuf]

I just don't see Castledale running that much better here and it should take much more than a 103 to win. Good style though and it's possible. I'd stick with St.Averil at a much higher price.

[QuikSand]

And I will offer once again -- the best race I saw run this year by a 3yo was the Fountain of Youth effort from READ THE FOOTNOTES. He came back afew weeks later and looked short in the Florida Derby, and has essentially been written off. He opens at 12-1, but the buzz suggests that he will rocket up from there - I'm expecting 20 or better. Breeding is suspect -- dad Smoke Glacken was a brilliant sprinter -- bot dam side is pretty staid. I really like what I saw from him in Florida, and while the decision to skip the last round of preps was unusual -- that might fit this horse well (his FoY was after a layoff). A visually impressive 47-4 workout on April 26 suggests that he is running well right now, and that he has been able to cover the CD surface -- both are plus factors in my eyes.

This is actualy the horse I like to stay in just behind the early leader(s), and perhaps make a move at the late backstretch or into the turn. Yes, several others have a similar game plan -- but I think RTF will be more forward than most, and will very possibly have a good position to make the move -- maybe from the two lane in the second row of runners.

Another horse I'm considering seriously.

[rkmsuf]

RTF makes sense but has the look of a horse that really wants to be right on the pace and not necessarily 3 or 4 lengths tracking which would be the ideal trip rather than mixing it up with Lion Heart. The one thing about Lion Heart is he'll stay engaged for quite a while and that would set up a fast pace. Even though I'm not a Bailey butt boy I would feel quite a bit more confident had he stayed both for the implication of the choice itself and his skill in judging pace.

[QuikSand]

Even though I'm not a Bailey butt boy I would feel quite a bit more confident had he stayed both for the implication of the choice itself and his skill in judging pace.

I think Bailey read "Smoke Glacken," saw the 1 1/4 mile distance, and found another ride. I don't share your pace pessimism, I guess. Plus, Bailey has passed on more Derby winners than he has ridden, I think. War Emblem the most recent among them, if I recall correctly.

[Honolulu Blue]

Now I present my more detailed views of this year's race. Each of these horses have their pros and cons, so there isn't one clear favorite in my mind. But there are some that stand out, and I've broken them into four classes:

The A+ students - These are the horses that are most likely to win. Each are bettable at 10-1 or better: LION HEART, SMARTY JONES, THE CLIFF'S EDGE

The A students - Not quite the class of the field, but have enough going for them to be worth looking at at 18-1 or better: IMPERIALISM, POLLARD'S VISION

The B students - They each have some chance to win, but not exceptional ones. Any or all are decent bets at 25-1 or better: TAPIT, MASTER DAVID, READ THE FOOTNOTES, BORREGO, CASTLEDALE

If you have money to burn, you can exacta the As on top with the Bs on the bottom.

The C students - Vague chances to win, some chance to hit the board. You can tell I'm really enthusiastic about these guys. :rolleyes: I'll list their names, because I hope a lot of money goes their way: MINISTER ERIC, FRIENDS LAKE, BIRDSTONE, LIMEHOUSE, PRO PRADO, QUINTONS GOLD RUSH

You can tri or super the As over the Bs over the Cs. Not recommended because of the sheer cost of it, but the reward would be nice.

The dropouts - NO chance to win unless lightning strikes half the field or something similar. SONG OF THE SWORD and ACTION THIS DAY fit here.

I know I'm demanding a lot, which is why I expect to keep most of my money in my pocket for this race. Probably the best bet would be the "blind leading the blind" (IMPERIALISM-POLLARD'S VISION) exacta. If I can get a good enough price for it, I might play it just for fun.

[QuikSand]

With WIMBLEDON scratched, there are a lot of angles missing. Baffert and Bailey both sitting on the sidelines... tough break. Not to mention EDDINGTON, the 21st horse on the earnings list who now sits and watches a field of 19 go in the race.

[Raven Hawk]

With WIMBLEDON scratched, there are a lot of angles missing. Baffert and Bailey both sitting on the sidelines... tough break. Not to mention EDDINGTON, the 21st horse on the earnings list who now sits and watches a field of 19 go in the race.
So THAT's what my warm fuzzy feeling was. :) I'll let you know if I have any more warm fuzzy feelings before post time. ;)

[QuikSand]

I think 'Tapit' is a good horse to bet on. He won the Wood in stunning fashion! And the winner of the Wood has won 3 of the last 4 Kentucky Derbies.

I just noticed this... and am thinking about it off the top of my head. Not true, I'm pretty sure - neither of the last two Derby winners won the Wood.

FUNNY CIDE ran second in the Wood to Empire Maker.
WAR EMBLEM ran in the Illinois Derby as his final prep.
FUSAICHI PEGASUS won the Wood.
MONARCHOS ran in the Blue Grass, I believe, not the Wood.

...I'm sure I'm missing someone in that sequence... but I'm guessing that the factual statement is that three of the last four Derby winners ran in the Wood, rather than won the Wood.

[Franklinnoble]

Here's an interesting article from Andy Beyer:

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By Andrew Beyer

Friday, April 30, 2004; Page D01

<nitf> </nitf>

When the final round of Kentucky Derby prep races was contested April 10, no 3-year-old had yet emerged as the leader of his generation. Racing fans watched intently for clues to the identity of the eventual Derby winner.

Tapit was a powerhouse as he rallied from last place to capture the Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct. Visually, his performance was as impressive as any by a 3-year-old this season. Smarty Jones battled for the lead and won the Arkansas Derby authoritatively, improving his career record to a perfect 6 for 6. The Cliff's Edge rallied to catch the tired speedster Lion Heart in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, scoring a narrow victory that didn't appear exceptional.

Yet the speed figures for the three races produced assessments of the winners different from most people's immediate reactions. Tapit won the Wood with a mediocre Beyer Speed Figure of 98. Smarty Jones's figure was a respectable 107, while The Cliff's Edge earned a rating of 111 -- an outstanding performance good enough to win the Derby in an average year. Should a handicapper trust his senses or trust the numbers?

Although I am a champion of speed figures, I recognize that the Kentucky Derby can't be deciphered in a simplistic fashion. A horse's overall preparation, his pedigree and his running style all can be as important as his speed. That's why I have often outsmarted myself at the Derby. When War Emblem came into the 2002 Derby with a standout speed figure and won at 20 to 1, I didn't bet him. When Charismatic had the co-top figure in 1999, I ignored him at 31 to 1.

I'm not making this mistake again. I'm not overlooking The Cliff's Edge. Not only did he run the fastest recent prep race, but he has a near-perfect profile for a Derby winner.

The 130th running of the Derby is widely perceived as one of the most wide-open in years, but amidst the 20 entrants there are five who appear to have superior talent. Besides The Cliff's Edge, they are Lion Heart, Smarty Jones, Tapit and Read The Footnotes. Any of them could turn out to be the star of his generation. But each of the other four has a serious defect in his Derby credentials.

• Lion Heart is consistent, gritty and fast. He has led or fought for the lead in every one of his races; even when he is subjected to pressure at a fast pace, he doesn't give up. His speed figure of 110 in the Blue Grass confirms that he has abundant raw talent. But he appears to be a one-dimensional speed horse with stamina limitations, and those traits will compromise him Saturday. If Lion Heart couldn't hold a 21/2-length lead in the 11/8-mile Blue Grass, how is he going to win at 11/4 miles?

• Smarty Jones will attempt to become the first undefeated colt to win the Derby since Seattle Slew; if he does it, handicappers will be asking themselves why they didn't take 5 to 1 (or thereabout) on a fast, versatile professional racehorse with a perfect record. But as he dominated his rivals in Arkansas this winter, Smarty Jones wasn't facing opposition of much quality. On Saturday he will probably have to chase Lion Heart, who is a quicker horse, overhaul him and then hold off stretch-runners such as The Cliff's Edge. His pedigree suggests that he'll have trouble doing in it. Smarty Jones is the son of a sprinter, Elusive Quality, and he doesn't inherit much stamina from his dam, either; such horses can sometimes be effective at 11/8 miles but they rarely succeed at the Derby distance.

• Tapit looked like a Kentucky Derby candidate when he finished powerfully to win the Laurel Futurity last fall. He has the right style, the right pedigree and a brilliant trainer in Michael Dickinson. He won the Wood even though Dickinson acknowledged that the horse wasn't completely fit. He is sure to improve at Churchill Downs. Yet the Wood may have been such a weak race that Tapit's good effort was illusory; three rivals finished within two lengths of him, and none of them had ever won a graded stakes race.

• Read The Footnotes delivered the best performance by a 3-year-old this season when he won the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream this winter, prevailing in a hard stretch duel to earn a Beyer Speed Figure of 113. The stress of that race might have taken a toll on him, and he subsequently gave a lackluster performance in the Florida Derby. He hasn't raced since, and he has been a forgotten horse at Churchill Downs. History is against Read The Footnotes: No horse in decades has won the Derby after a seven-week layoff from competition. His pedigree is against him, too: He's a son of the sprinter Smoke Glacken. But he does have this asset: He may be the best horse. Since he is likely to be 20 to 1, I am not leaving him out of my Derby combinations.

There are no questions about the readiness of The Cliff's Edge. While many of his rivals are short on experience, he has a sound foundation. He gained ample experience as a 2-year-old and won a pair of stakes, both at Churchill Downs. While his first two starts of the year were disappointing, his big figure in the Blue Grass indicates he has peaked at just the right time. Unlike many of his sprint-bred rivals, he should relish running 11/4 miles; his sire, Gulch, has fathered many excellent distance runners, including Derby winner Thunder Gulch. Though many people regard Saturday's race as inscrutable, The Cliff's Edge meets all the important criteria for a Derby winner.

My Derby trifecta: The Cliff's Edge, Read The Footnotes, Tapit.



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[rkmsuf]

St. Averil has been scratched.

At least I can forever maintain that he would have won...

[Franklinnoble]

Why were Wimbledon and St. Averil scratched?

[Raven Hawk]

Sounds like the track might be a bit sloppy . . .

Could hinder those long closers.

[rkmsuf]

Why were Wimbledon and St. Averil scratched?

Baffert figured out Wimbledon had no chance and St. Averil has the runs.

At least that's what Jim McKay is reporting. He is pretty old though so that might not be correct.

[Franklinnoble]

Baffert figured out Wimbledon had no chance and St. Averil has the runs.

At least that's what Jim McKay is reporting. He is pretty old though so that might not be correct.
Hmm... I'm surprised Baffert wouldn't at least give him a shot to run... Nobody figured Monarchos had a chance to win...

[rkmsuf]

officially it's swelling in the left leg of Baffert's charge and no reason for St. Averil so I'm sticking with the runs.

[Franklinnoble]

officially it's swelling in the left leg of Baffert's charge and no reason for St. Averil so I'm sticking with the runs.
Ever been around a horse with the runs? Not at all pleasant. It's especially bad when it's a filly... and you have to keep the, ummm, plumbing clean...

[rkmsuf]

that's something you never see...the runs during a race. Even humans do that.

[Suicane75]

Just a question on the odds, how much does the money move the lines between say tonight and tommorow? I got Pollards Vision at 30-1 early this morning and now he's down to 6-1. But Imperialism, another horse i've been swayed to put something down on, has dropped to 40-1. Should I grab that line now or will it still be there early in the morning tommorow?

[rkmsuf]

Just a question on the odds, how much does the money move the lines between say tonight and tommorow? I got Pollards Vision at 30-1 early this morning and now he's down to 6-1. But Imperialism, another horse i've been swayed to put something down on, has dropped to 40-1. Should I grab that line now or will it still be there early in the morning tommorow?

You need a serious lesson on the pari-mutual system.

[Suicane75]

You need a serious lesson on the pari-mutual system.

:(

I'm not laying down a ton of cash, im just interested in it from a laymans viewpoint, as I said, i don't bet horses except for the triple crown, just to have some fun.

[QuikSand]

Just a question on the odds, how much does the money move the lines between say tonight and tommorow? I got Pollards Vision at 30-1 early this morning and now he's down to 6-1. But Imperialism, another horse i've been swayed to put something down on, has dropped to 40-1. Should I grab that line now or will it still be there early in the morning tommorow?

A simple lesson will do.

When you bet horses, the odds you get are the "final" odds on the horse when the race begins. The odds posted, or the morning line (which is just an expert's forecast) at the time you make your bet, are both irrelevant. The amount your ticket will pay depends on what the other bettors do, period.

The advance betting on the Derby typically gives some genral flavor of the crowd's selections... but that's all. You should expect most horses to regress back somewhere near the morning line. POLLARD'S VISION isn't going to go off at 6-1 ... what has probably happened is some clown put down one big bet in advance today, and that's skewing the early numbers.

Bottom line is this: theodds you get are the odds at the end of the betting, not the odds in place at the moment you make your bet.

(This assumes, of course, that you are making your bets at the racetrack... and not at some casino which is offering some sort of "future betting." From the context, I'm pretty sure this is your case.)

[rkmsuf]

A simple lesson will do.

When you bet horses, the odds you get are the "final" odds on the horse when the race begins. The odds posted, or the morning line (which is just an expert's forecast) at the time you make your bet, are both irrelevant. The amount your ticket will pay depends on what the other bettors do, period.

The advance betting on the Derby typically gives some genral flavor of the crowd's selections... but that's all. You should expect most horses to regress back somewhere near the morning line. POLLARD'S VISION isn't going to go off at 6-1 ... what has probably happened is some clown put down one big bet in advance today, and that's skewing the early numbers.

Bottom line is this: theodds you get are the odds at the end of the betting, not the odds in place at the moment you make your bet.

(This assumes, of course, that you are making your bets at the racetrack... and not at some casino which is offering some sort of "future betting." From the context, I'm pretty sure this is your case.)

sorry S75, that was about right. Having a bad day via Xpressbet.

[Suicane75]

Ok, now i understand, thanks Quick. Yeah, I am betting at an online book. No prob RK. I think it's good that I don't bet horses more than 3 times a year. :D

[Suicane75]

Dola, i'm sorry I wasted your guys time, I was looking at the Horse To Finish Last In The Derby page when I gave you those odds. I'm a numbskull.

[QuikSand]

Horse to finish last in the Derby, eh?

Hmmm... without a ton of thought, I might hazard a couple of bucks on LIMEHOUSE for that honor.

[Suicane75]

Horse to finish last in the Derby, eh?

Hmmm... without a ton of thought, I might hazard a couple of bucks on LIMEHOUSE for that honor.

Yeah, he's the favorite to be the worst, 2-1.

[QuikSand]

Finishing last is frequently an honor falling to a speed-oriented horse who runs hard early, gives up, and gasps his way home. LIMEHOUSE figures to be fully extended trying to keep up with the likes of LIONHEART and maybe READ THE FOOTNOTES... looks like a pretty tall order for a horse with his pedigree. I can see him spitting the bit and giving up.

[Honolulu Blue]

From the Daily Racing Form (http://www.drf.com/news/article/55193.html) Web site, the early odds:

1 - Limehouse, 36-1
2 - Song of the Sword, 57-1
3 - Lion Heart, 9-1
4 - Action This Day, 41-1
5 - Wimbledon, scratched
6 - Friends Lake, 17-1
7 - Minister Eric, 11-1
8 - Master David, 8-1
9 - St Averil, scratched
10 - Imperialism, 9-1
11 - The Cliff's Edge, 8-1
12 - Borrego, 9-1
13 - Birdstone, 15-1
14 - Read the Footnotes, 19-1
15 - Smarty Jones, 5-1
16 - Castledale, 26-1
17 - Pollard's Vision, 34-1
18 - Tapit, 5-1
19 - Pro Prado, 64-1
20 - Quintons Gold Rush, 58-1

I love all that early money going on TAPIT. Keep it coming, guys, so I can get better odds on the others.

Anyway, one other bet I thought of is a show bet on BORREGO. This isn't going to be one of the higher paying bets on the board, probably $6-$10 per $2 bet (depending on the two others in the show pool), but I do think it has a reasonable likelihood of occurring. He's had three seconds in a row to three other Derby horses (MASTER DAVID, SMARTY JONES, and the scratched WIMBLEDON) - testament to his quality, but also giving hints that perhaps he prefers minor honors.

Speaking of WIMBLEDON, you can take slightly lower odds on the other B students now that he's out. 25-1 ought to do it, and you might get that on one or the other of those horses. I've modified the post above to reflect this.

[henry296]

With the derby in 10 minutes, I am going with Read the Footnotes for no real reason.

[tucker rocky]

Lion's Heart paced as far as he could go, but Smarty Jones let lose toward the end and won.

[Franklinnoble]

I think Lion Heart's jockey held him back for too long...

[Honolulu Blue]

Congratulations to the SMARTY JONES team. The race played out pretty much as I thought it would - LION HEART on the lead, with SJ taking the lead in the stretch. The thing I didn't expect was the distinct lack of pressure from behind. Was there anyone else in the race other than those two? None that mattered on this day.

Ah well, on to the Preakness.

[QuikSand]

Complete miss for me.

The weather really messed up my thinking, as I started looking for mudders all day and warmed up to FRIENDS LAKE for the big race. I also started getting led off the path by the surprisingly high odds on THE CLIFF'S EDGE, who was at 9-1 most of the day, after opening at 4-1.

But I never realy gave much thought to either or the top two, so it's not like I was nibbling around there and barely missed it.

[cuervo72]

SMARTY JONES can't go the distance.

Dissing the Philly horse. Tsk tsk tsk.

(way to go Smarty!)

[Raven Hawk]

Well, I decided to buy Pollard's Vision at 23-1. I figured that he could mud with the best of them . . . well for the 1st 3/4 of a mile anyhow. ;)

[Tigercat]

Was there anyone else in the race other than those two? None that mattered on this day.

Imperalism can really handle sloppy conditions. I think the only reason it was Smarty and not Imperalism with that gutsy win is because Smarty moved out of the pack at just the right time, and then Imperalism was bumped by another horse and got lost in the pack again. If not for the bump, Imperalism might have been the one outlasting Lionheart in the end.. As it was, it was a good job for Imperalism to finish 3rd.

[FishFan]

Dissing the Philly horse. Tsk tsk tsk.

(way to go Smarty!)

The weather really dictated this race. Not to take anything away from SMARTY JONES, the track conditions pretty much eliminated two horses who will probably end up being the best three year olds this year (THE CLIFF'S EDGE and TAPIT). I went into the day prepared to drop $100 on the best value of those two, but after seeing the forecast, I switched gears and started looking at other horses that will be near the early pace. I dropped a $50 win bet on READ THE FOOTNOTES despite a seven week layoff. I fell in love with his 21-1 price. Then, I played various exacta tickets with another $75. I ended up hitting the exacta six times, but was not impressed with the payout.

On the undercard, I had a very nice day picking up wins with SPEIGHTSTOWN in the fifth race and then my bomb 19-1 horse in the seventh race. I ended up a good amount for the day, but failed to cash a really big one.

[rkmsuf]

Very powerful run by Smarty Jones. Lion Heart had it all his own way and I was shocked Jones ran him down. Give credit to Stuart Elliot for an excellent ride and the horse for running down the lone leader. Lion Heart didn't stop; he just got outrun in the lane decisively.

With that style, speed and competitiveness they've got a real chance for a Triple Crown.

[JonInMiddleGA]

http://espn.go.com/horse/news/2004/0507/1797426.html

Kentucky Derby winning jockey Stewart Elliott pleaded guilty to assault three years ago, but didn't disclose the information when applying for a license to ride at Churchill Downs.

His failure to do so is unlikely to affect Elliott's winning ride aboard Smarty Jones in last Saturday's Derby, though the 39-year-old rider could face disciplinary action, the Kentucky Horse Racing Authority said Friday.

It also raises questions about his riding status for next Saturday's Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Messages left on Elliott's cell phone Friday weren't immediately returned. His agent, Ray Lopez, said Elliott made a mistake when filling out the form to ride in Kentucky.

The form, a copy of which was obtained from the Kentucky racing authority, includes eight questions, one of which asks if the applicant has been arrested, indicted or convicted or has pleaded guilty to any criminal offense within the last 10 years.

Elliott checked "No" because, according to his agent, the jockey did not realize the time frame was 10 years.

"He made a mistake," Lopez said. "We've talked to stewards in Kentucky and Maryland and everything is cleared up. It won't affect the Derby, and it's not going to affect the Preakness."

Elliott pleaded guilty in June 2001 to aggravated assault stemming from a fight with a friend inside the man's Burlington County, N.J., home in 2000. Elliott was sentenced to one year of probation and ordered to pay $13,900 to cover the victim's medical bills, according to court records.

Elliott beat Alexander Kovakik with a beer bottle, pool cue and wooden stool, according to the grand jury indictment charging the jockey with aggravated assault, possession of a weapon and unlawful possession.

The latter two charges were dropped after Elliott agreed to plead guilty.

[Chubby]

All I know is I got drenched :D

Yeah I saw that about Elliott, shouldn't be too big of a deal.