A "what is the right play?" poker question

[Glengoyne]

Scenario

You win a $10 buy in tournament(Paradise poker) that gets you into an invitation only tournament that sends the winner to Paris with a buy in for the WPT tournament there. There are 60 players in the tournament. There are no rebuys. Everyone starts with $1500 in chips. Blinds are 20 and 40.

First deal and you are in the Big Blind. You get a couple of rags, and fold to a modest raise. You have 1440 after posting the small blind for the next hand.

Two players limp in, and the button raises 40. You are looking at Ac-10h. You call the $60. One of the limpers folds to the raise.

Three players see the flop. As-10d-8c

You open with $100.

Limper number two folds.

The button immediately pushes all in. It is $1440 to you, and you have $1300 in chips

What is the play?

[Chubby]

I would call the all-in with top 2 pair.

[sabotai]

I think the correct play would be to call it with that flop, but it'd be hard. Going all-in so early is a tough decision to make. In this case, I think you have to.

[Comey]

Scenario

You win a $10 buy in tournament(Paradise poker) that gets you into an invitation only tournament that sends the winner to Paris with a buy in for the WPT tournament there. There are 60 players in the tournament. There are no rebuys. Everyone starts with $1500 in chips. Blinds are 20 and 40.

First deal and you are in the Big Blind. You get a couple of rags, and fold to a modest raise. You have 1440 after posting the small blind for the next hand.

Two players limp in, and the button raises 40. You are looking at Ac-10h. You call the $60. One of the limpers folds to the raise.

Three players see the flop. As-10d-8c

You open with $100.

Limper number two folds.

The button immediately pushes all in. It is $1440 to you, and you have $1300 in chips

What is the play?
I'm interested to find this out. It's a massive risk-reward. I'd sit the hand, personally. I think it's too early to bluff, and you don't want to go out that early.

But, then again, I'm just a player who's striving to get better, and may not be there just yet. So, I'm sure someone has a differing opinion, and probably a more educated one.

-John

[Chubby]

The only way you'd fold is if you put him on a pocket pair that flopped a set. With it being only the 2nd hand and only a raise of 1 bet, you have to call. I put the button on A-K.

[Comey]

After seeing the last (first) two responses, I do have to be honest and say that I've found myself doing that quite a bit lately (calling an all-in), and have gotten kicked on the river. It is quite possible they have A-10 as well, and I definitely see the other side here.

I'd probably still wait, but maybe it's cause I'm too shaky on calls like that early on.

[Chubby]

I'm interested to find this out. It's a massive risk-reward. I'd sit the hand, personally. I think it's too early to bluff, and you don't want to go out that early.

But, then again, I'm just a player who's striving to get better, and may not be there just yet. So, I'm sure someone has a differing opinion, and probably a more educated one.

-John

You're right it's too early too bluff, especially in an invite tourny of only 60. This is precisely the reason to call. You have top 2 pair, you're only behind to pocket pair which I don't think there's any way to put them on right now.

Again, this is just me as I play aggressive. I can certainly see people folding as they want to stay in the tourny and not risk everything on the 2nd hand.

[hoopsguy]

Particularly on the rainbow flop it would be very tough to lay down.

You ever play against this guy before? Any feel if he is ultra-aggressive with his big slick? Or if he would make the minimum raise pre-flop with medium pair from that position while being first to act?

[Comey]

Is being a pessimist bad in this situation? I'd put them on pocket As or pocket 8s, and want to scare off anyone who has an ace in that situation. With the way my cards have fallen lately, I'd be beaten out by pocket eights, an ace on the turn, and another eight on the river, kicking me with quads.

-John

[Glengoyne]

I'm interested to find this out. It's a massive risk-reward. I'd sit the hand, personally. I think it's too early to bluff, and you don't want to go out that early.

But, then again, I'm just a player who's striving to get better, and may not be there just yet. So, I'm sure someone has a differing opinion, and probably a more educated one.

-John
I am interested in what the concensus is myself. I think I know what folks would think, but want to get a range of opinions. I will finish the scenario a bit later or possibly tomorrow morning, so there will be time for more input.

[Glengoyne]

Particularly on the rainbow flop it would be very tough to lay down.

You ever play against this guy before? Any feel if he is ultra-aggressive with his big slick? Or if he would make the minimum raise pre-flop with medium pair from that position while being first to act?
All we know about this guy is that he finished at the final table of one of the other $10 buy in tournaments.

[Chubby]

Is being a pessimist bad in this situation? I'd put them on pocket As or pocket 8s, and want to scare off anyone who has an ace in that situation. With the way my cards have fallen lately, I'd be beaten out by pocket eights, an ace on the turn, and another eight on the river, kicking me with quads.

-John

To me, if he flopped a set I wouldn't expect him to instantly go all-in. It smells like a overplay of A-K or maybe a duplicate A-10.

It's not a bad thing. If you're gut says fold then fold. As I said, for me, I wouldn't be able to lay down top 2 pair on the 2nd hand of a tourny when I don't know the guy.

[Comey]

You're right it's too early too bluff, especially in an invite tourny of only 60. This is precisely the reason to call. You have top 2 pair, you're only behind to pocket pair which I don't think there's any way to put them on right now.

Again, this is just me as I play aggressive. I can certainly see people folding as they want to stay in the tourny and not risk everything on the 2nd hand.
I was saying it's too early to bluff, meaning he's got a hand. If he's got Ax, that's one thing. But, in my doomsday scenario, he has a set of eights, or even worse, aces. That means I couldn't improve my hand (no flush draw, and no straight opportunity...any 10s or 8s fall make his hand stronger against mine), and I'd be a goner.

-John

[Comey]

To me, if he flopped a set I wouldn't expect him to instantly go all-in. It smells like a overplay of A-K or maybe a duplicate A-10.

It's not a bad thing. If you're gut says fold then fold. As I said, for me, I wouldn't be able to lay down top 2 pair on the 2nd hand of a tourny when I don't know the guy.
This is very true. It's probably my inexperience telling me to get rid of this hand (I've carved out a niche for myself on PacPoker, but that's it). The gut is usually right, though. Maybe he's got a straight draw, too (and is very loose).

[Chubby]

I was saying it's too early to bluff, meaning he's got a hand. If he's got Ax, that's one thing. But, in my doomsday scenario, he has a set of eights, or even worse, aces. That means I couldn't improve my hand (no flush draw, and no straight opportunity...any 10s or 8s fall make his hand stronger against mine), and I'd be a goner.

-John
I know, I was agreeing it's too early to bluff. Technically, you wouldnt be drawing dead against anything. At worse he has a set of aces, 2 running 10s and you have quads you win.

For me, being an agressive player, there's no way I could put them on a set. But there's nothing wrong with playing safe here, you may be behind. I think the odds are in your favor to call but it's your tourny.

[Driftwood]

does he really have time to ask for all this advice in the middle of a game??

[MJ4H]

I doubt that this was a live advice situation. My feeling on this is it's an overplay most of the time. The guy is usually so sure his AK is good that he will go allin so that you don't try to try draw on him. That said, I don't think you can call. If he keeps making this move you can call easily with two pair of course, but the point is it is too early to have a read on him, and you definitely don't want to be guessing for all your chips.

[SirFozzie]

you know what?

I'd call.

Not that you're pot committed, or that the 1500 chips will mean much of anything at the END of the tournament.. but top two pair, post flop, with two cards yet to come? Sure, he can draw out on you, but I don't think there's a way you can put him on a set.

If you're not going to call a big bet, don't open with a big bet (5xBB) ((Unless you're running a bluff of course))

[MJ4H]

If you're not going to call a big bet, don't open with a big bet (5xBB) ((Unless you're running a bluff of course))

That I can agree with. I just know that early on the chips you lose are more valuable than the chips you win. I think a call like this you must have a pretty good read on what hands your opponent will do this with. At this point, you don't. If you call here, it is a big risk. Not one I think is worth the reward early on. I can certainly see where you are coming from, I just don't think I would call. Yet :)

[AnalBumCover]

I love this... two strong NL tourney players from FOFC having slightly differing opinions on a situation. Keep the discussion going!

[primelord]

Without a solid read it always best to assume the player plays decent until he gives you resaon to think otherwise. So this early in a tournament with the preflop raise the only realistic hands you can put him an are AA, AKso, AQso, AJso, maybe ATs, TT, 88. I can't imagine any other hand that a decent player would 1) raise preflop and then 2) push with after the flop. You are ahead of 6 of those 10 possible hands. I think that is too close to call this early in the tournament. You are probably a favorite to win this hand and in the long run it's probably +ev to call here, but I would wait for a better shot later in the tournament.

Also I would have mucked this hand preflop to the raise. ATo is not that strong of a hand and you are out of position.

[RPI-Fan]

Chubby: FTR, those things you mentioned have nothing to do with "agressiveness" whatsoever, at all.

I'd fold here. I put him on AA or 88 - though the minimum raise preflop is awfully curious. I think he figured post-flop, that since you led with a bet, he WANTS a call.

The only possibilities, IMO, are AK, AA, TT, and 88.

<i>I think the key is realizing that his all-in bet WANTS you to call (since you open-raised).</i> He's not trying to get you to fold. Now, given that situation, it's POSSIBLE he has AK and puts you on Ax, but more likely he has the set and is begging for a call.

[SirFozzie]

Here's something to chew over.

I spoke a lot about table image in Radii's poker dynasty (gotta tell me how that turns out, Radii).. here's something from yesterday's Super Satelitte tournament to chew on.

ANYTHING you can do to insert doubt into the opposition's mind is worthwhile. It helped that I was tired as hell, frustrated (FBCB isn't loading right). But I was a chatterbox most of the night, with a running repartee with a couple other players, and constantly chattered to the table.

During this, I committed several strategic faux pas.. for example, after forcing someone out of the hand with a big raise, I showed him that I indeed, had the nuts. Or after a hand, I commented on what I was thinking.. (for example, I had top pair and an 8 kicker.. and after being re-raised, and folding, I said.. "You must have outkicked me..."

Another time, late in the tournament, I got the old Pocket Rockets, and was raised into (basically a mininum raise).. I raised it to 6 times the big blind (something like 90K).. and the guy took time to think over his call. While he was thinking, (he had about 200K, so he wouldn't be crippled if he folded, or even called and later folded, but probably would be in bad shape).. I said flat out in the chat...

"Don't do it. I have the big one."

And about 30 seconds later, he folded (he had AK). I showed to indicate my rockets, and one of the observers thought that I had gone too far in describing my hand. Personally, I think it's on the right side of etiquette (I did not explicitly or implicitly describe my hand. I just let him decide what the big one meant), but obviously, I could have broken him pretty easily. Why did I do the play I did?

Table Image.

I even announced my table image, earlier in the table. "I want everyone to see me as a harmless nutter. That way they don't see I'm a harmless nutter.. with a ton of chips in front of him!"

Why risk a big loss (this was preflop), and go for the big win when I already had a high rank (5 of 31,with 12 entries to the weekly) and one more big win would probably guarantee that I could sit out the remaining hands and easily qualify?

Table Image.

For the rest of the tourney, no one wanted to play a hand against me. Why? They couldn't get a read on me. I may have Pocket Cowboys with my mininum raise, I might have 78 suited. But if you can't read your opponent, you have a tendencey to put him on the hand that puts you in the worst situation possible...

That's why varying your play is so important in long form tournaments. You CANNOT get predictable. They have a term for predictable poker players.

They call them FISH.

You know how someone's going to react.. you can dangle that bait right in front of them, watch as they shy away, fearing the hook inside.. a couple times you let them take the bait (a mininum bet, or a check fold) and run..

and then you shake that bait in front of them, and they see just another free bite..

and they find themselves well and truly hooked.

Hold Em Poker will never truly be about percentages, or strict +ev and -ev plays. The human spirit and daring will always find themselves put in this game.

Even a loss in the situation above is not a complete loss. Every opponent you played (and you will run into them again).. will know that if you do this again.. YOU HAVE A HAND.. a Near-Nut Hand! It doesn't compare to a possible trip to Paris.. but you cannot consider such a play risking possible thousands of dollars..

You must consider it risking nothing more then the $10 buy in you used to get into the satelitte.

That's why satelitte winners are doing so well at tournament poker. They have only truly risked a fraction of the buy in. The people who pay their own way have much more of a loss to worry about, so they play careful poker. Careful Poker may get you in the cash.. but Daring Poker is what takes home the prize.

[dixieflatline]

To much risk for not enough reward. There will be a better time to get your chips in later in the tourney. I would fold this hand. If you assume this guy is a decent player(he did get this far) what else could he have besides the hands primelord listed? No flush draw. He didn't raise with a hand that could give him an open ended straight like J9. I also think it's a bit unlikely that he would push so hard with AJ. Not a bad kicker but would you risk your tourney life on a jack kicker? I think a pocket pair that flopped trips or AK is the most likely hands that he has here.

edit: RPI beat me too the most probably hands listing.
edit*2: spelling

[SirFozzie]

Chubby: FTR, those things you mentioned have nothing to do with "agressiveness" whatsoever, at all.

I'd fold here. I put him on AA or 88 - though the minimum raise preflop is awfully curious. I think he figured post-flop, that since you led with a bet, he WANTS a call.

The only possibilities, IMO, are AK, AA, TT, and 88.

<i>I think the key is realizing that his all-in bet WANTS you to call (since you open-raised).</i> He's not trying to get you to fold. Now, given that situation, it's POSSIBLE he has AK and puts you on Ax, but more likely he has the set and is begging for a call.


RPI, you're giving the average Paradise Poker player too much credit.

Paradise, Party and Pacific Poker have the greatest concentration of fish I've ever seen.

I put this guy on AK, AQ, or AJ.

Most online players are "pushers" Ie.. they see a good hand (in this case, top pair top kicker).. and don't want to pussyfoot with someone on a draw to a better hand.. so they try to shut it down with maximum effect by pushing all-in.

[MJ4H]

RPI, you're giving the average Paradise Poker player too much credit.

Paradise, Party and Pacific Poker have the greatest concentration of fish I've ever seen.

I put this guy on AK, AQ, or AJ.

Most online players are "pushers" Ie.. they see a good hand (in this case, top pair top kicker).. and don't want to pussyfoot with someone on a draw to a better hand.. so they try to shut it down with maximum effect by pushing all-in.

I agree with this. But again I don't see this as a spot I'd like to risk all my chips in. My gut does scream AK with this play. I don't think a call is terrible here, but I still don't like it this early.

[SirFozzie]

semi-dola: If this was the WSOP, or a B&M tournament, even a PS tournament (although Ghu knows that they have more then their fair share of fish themselves) or if I had more then a $10 satelitte win risked, yes, I would definitely consider folding

[RPI-Fan]

RPI, you're giving the average Paradise <A TITLE="Click for more information about poker" STYLE="text-decoration: none; border-bottom: medium solid green;" HREF="http://search.targetwords.com/u.search?x=5977|1||||poker|AA1VDw">Poker</A> player too much credit.

Paradise, Party and Pacific Poker have the greatest concentration of fish I've ever seen.

I put this guy on AK, AQ, or AJ.

Most online players are "pushers" Ie.. they see a good hand (in this case, top pair top kicker).. and don't want to pussyfoot with someone on a draw to a better hand.. so they try to shut it down with maximum effect by pushing all-in.

The thing is, we assume this ISN'T the "average" Paradise player - he won a satelitte to a satelitte, so you have to assume he has SOMETHING going for him. Under these circumstances, you have to put him on one of the 4 hands I listed, making it a hugely -ev play.

[primelord]

RPI, you're giving the average Paradise Poker player too much credit.

Paradise, Party and Pacific Poker have the greatest concentration of fish I've ever seen.

I put this guy on AK, AQ, or AJ.

Most online players are "pushers" Ie.. they see a good hand (in this case, top pair top kicker).. and don't want to pussyfoot with someone on a draw to a better hand.. so they try to shut it down with maximum effect by pushing all-in.
Despite the fact that the average Paradise player may be an idiot that still doesn't mean he doesn't have trips here. While the opponent may certainly be an idiot he still is very likely to have atleast an A here which still gives him outs no matter what his kicker is. And the hands I listed earlier are still the most likely hands even if he is a poor player.

So without a read on the guy this early in the tournament it is just too much to risk calling the all-in. There will be a better spot down the line.

[RPI-Fan]

Exactly, primelord...

Being a bad player doesn't mean you don't get good hands sometimes (i.e. NOW)

[primelord]

Chubby: FTR, those things you mentioned have nothing to do with "agressiveness" whatsoever, at all.

I'd fold here. I put him on AA or 88 - though the minimum raise preflop is awfully curious. I think he figured post-flop, that since you led with a bet, he WANTS a call.

The only possibilities, IMO, are AK, AA, TT, and 88.

I think the key is realizing that his all-in bet WANTS you to call (since you open-raised). He's not trying to get you to fold. Now, given that situation, it's POSSIBLE he has AK and puts you on Ax, but more likely he has the set and is begging for a call.
I don't think he does want a call here. Why push if you want a call? If you are really willing to see the river with this guy and you want him to call along the way why not just call the flop bet and wait for him to bet into you again on the turn? It is almost a lock that the player would have slow played a set of A so I think TT or 88 would be more likely from the sets. And I think AK is actually the most likely of all the hands in this spot. Such a huge raise is generally done so your opponent won't call. As I said he is probably ahead in this hand and in the long run that call is almost certainly +ev.

However the problem is it is very early in the tournament and he might have a set. Even if the guy has AK he has outs to beat your two pair and he may have an even bigger hand. It's just too much of a risk to take in the early stages of a tournament.

[Chubby]

The point about not being in this hand in the 1st place is a valid one. It's not a strong hand, more so considering you're not in position. A-10 for me depends on if I'm in a blind or if I feel "good".

For the "fold" camp: The part of your argument I don't get is saying "he wants you to call", you don't know this. It's agreed we don't have a read on said player, he could be trying to bluff you out of the pot (not likely as I think he has A-K) but it is a possibility. He could be playing a semi bluff, he could have anything. The fact that he raised pre-flop by 1 bet to me, means he has an ace which is why I put him on A-K. If your gut says fold then fold, it's not a bad play. I think folding is overthinking the hand, I think A-10 is in the lead so I would call.

I'm interested to see how the hand turned out.

[Chubby]

I don't think he does want a call here. Why push if you want a call? If you are really willing to see the river with this guy and you want him to call along the way why not just call the flop bet and wait for him to bet into you again on the turn? It is almost a lock that the player would have slow played a set of A so I think TT or 88 would be more likely from the sets. And I think AK is actually the most likely of all the hands in this spot. Such a huge raise is generally done so your opponent won't call. As I said he is probably ahead in this hand and in the long run that call is almost certainly +ev.

However the problem is it is very early in the tournament and he might have a set. Even if the guy has AK he has outs to beat your two pair and he may have an even bigger hand. It's just too much of a risk to take in the early stages of a tournament.

There are 3 hands that can beat "ours", all of which are plausible but not very likely to have been played this way. I agree, if he has a set he would most likely slowplay them.

Any hand you might be behind if they have the nuts. This argument doesn't hold with me. With that thinking you could flop a full house but "well, they might have quads". The fact that it's early in the tourny is irrelevant to me. What difference does it make if this is hand #2 or hand #500 with 30 people left? None, it's the same hand. You may have more info on the opponent in hand #500 but you may not. He may have just come to your table.

I think that people that want to fold are being overly safe. Do you also play safe when it gets to crunch time (when the last couple drop before getting in the money)?

[RPI-Fan]

What difference does it make if this is hand #2 or hand #500 with 30 people left? None, it's the same hand.

Uhhh, no.

The 1,500 you'd gain in chips is worth a LOT less than the 100,000 (or whatever) you gain later in the tournament.

While the RISK is the same as later in the tournament, the REWARD is a lot less at this point.

Risk >>> Reward at Hand 2.
Risk = Reward at Hand 500.

That's really the backbone of the argument to fold.

[primelord]

There are 3 hands that can beat "ours", all of which are plausible but not very likely to have been played this way. I agree, if he has a set he would most likely slowplay them.

Any hand you might be behind if they have the nuts. This argument doesn't hold with me. With that thinking you could flop a full house but "well, they might have quads". The fact that it's early in the tourny is irrelevant to me. What difference does it make if this is hand #2 or hand #500 with 30 people left? None, it's the same hand. You may have more info on the opponent in hand #500 but you may not. He may have just come to your table.

I think that people that want to fold are being overly safe. Do you also play safe when it gets to crunch time (when the last couple drop before getting in the money)?
Being later in the tournament has a huge impact. The larger blind structure is going to cause you to make decisions much differently. If this is the middle to late stages of the tournament and the blinds are now at 200/400 instead of 20/40 and you have the same size stack you do now then of course you call. You are going to have to use almost half your stack just to get through the blinds anyway. However when the blinds are 20/40 you have a long way to go before they even stat becoming a factor.

Why take shots early when just winning a pot or two in the late stages will easily equal this pot? Your primary focus in a tournament should be to make the money and risking all your chips early is not the best way to do that. The 1500 chips you win here are not likely going to be the difference for you this early in the game. We both agree that he likely has AK and you are a very big favorite over AK in this situation. However when you add in the fact that he might have the trips it's just too much to risk this early.

[dixieflatline]

He could be playing a semi bluff, he could have anything.

The board is rainbow so it's not a flush draw. He needs J9 or 97 for a open ended straight draw. He raised preflop so It's unlikely that he has one of those hands. I just think the chances that he is on a semi-bluff are very slim.

There are 3 hands that can beat "ours", all of which are plausible but not very likely to have been played this way. I agree, if he has a set he would most likely slowplay them.

Aces yes I think slowplay is more likely. If he has TT or 88 though I think that fits very well to what has happened. He raised small before the flop to thin the field. Then facing a bet on the flop he assumes that the bettor has an ace and wants to take the pot down right now. If he doesn't go all in now and just calls and get drawn out on the turn or river he could easily loose all his chip so he is protecting his pot right now.

I can see a similiar agrument for AK or AQ but I think that a low set makes perfect sense as well and that is why I wouldn't put my tourney life on the line in this case.

[Chubby]

Uhhh, no.

The 1,500 you'd gain in chips is worth a LOT less than the 100,000 (or whatever) you gain later in the tournament.

While the RISK is the same as later in the tournament, the REWARD is a lot less at this point.

Risk >>> Reward at Hand 2.
Risk = Reward at Hand 500.

That's really the backbone of the argument to fold.

It looks like the same to me, you're doubling up either way while knocking someone out. A 100,000 chips isn't nescessarily a lot later on in a tourny. If I get knocked out I want to know I lost with a good hand. There's 3 hands here that can beat me all of which a "good player" wouldn't have played this way hence you have to call.

There is no guarentee you are going to "get a better shot later on". A fold here is playing not to lose instead of playing to win.

[Chubby]

The board is rainbow so it's not a flush draw. He needs J9 or 97 for a open ended straight draw. He raised preflop so It's unlikely that he has one of those hands. I just think the chances that he is on a semi-bluff are very slim.



Aces yes I think slowplay is more likely. If he has TT or 88 though I think that fits very well to what has happened. He raised small before the flop to thin the field. Then facing a bet on the flop he assumes that the bettor has an ace and wants to take the pot down right now. If he doesn't go all in now and just calls and get drawn out on the turn or river he could easily loose all his chip so he is protecting his pot right now.

I can see a similiar agrument for AK or AQ but I think that a low set makes perfect sense as well and that is why I wouldn't put my tourney life on the line in this case.

There is no way I can put him on a pocket pair that hit on the flop with this hand. There simply isn't enough information there to support it IMO. If you want to look for a reason to fold you can find it on any hand if you look hard enough.

If I flopped a set of 8s or 10s on this hand I most certainly would NOT be going all in. What is he going to draw out on me to beat me? A straight? Two runners to a flush? I would certainly make healthy bets to make sure any draws got folded but I wouldn't try and take a pot now especially with the Ace out there where I'm hoping the other player has a strong kicker or hits 2 pair so I can bleed them with my set.

[Radii]

I spoke a lot about table image in Radii's poker dynasty (gotta tell me how that turns out, Radii)

I definitely will, but it might be a short while before I try out the tourneys again, getting my bonus out of UB and finishing ahead is my primary goal right now, I might mess around w/ tourneys some more once i'm done there :)



Hold Em Poker will never truly be about percentages, or strict +ev and -ev plays. The human spirit and daring will always find themselves put in this game.


Low limit Limit poker online can be just about percentages. No limit and tournament play I agree with your statement here totally.


Here's something from the original post:


You win a $10 buy in tournament(Paradise poker) that gets you into an invitation only tournament that sends the winner to Paris with a buy in for the WPT tournament there. There are 60 players in the tournament. There are no rebuys. Everyone starts with $1500 in chips. Blinds are 20 and 40.


60 players fighting for what I presume is ONE WPT entry. This is the ultimate win or go home tournament. Even second place is worthless.

Call. Get a lead, push, try to get out ahead early and build up your advantage. You've got to win this sucker, you need *everything* to go your way. Early in this tourney, with a chance to double up and get an edge, or say "well I'm only out $10", I think this is an easy call.

Everything that's been discussed here is real interesting, and in a normal tourney I can see the merits to both calling and folding, but in a winner take all 60 person event, I think I lean towards a call here.

[cthomer5000]

Get the cameras rolling...

I agree with Chubby completely here.

If I were to flop a set, I wouldn't be going all-in, I'd be making a moderate bet trying to trap someone who I hope had an Ace. To me this guy is likely holding AK. Of course, this guy might realize that most players are idiots, so he may go all in with a set figuring someone with an Ace would call him on it. Or this guy *is* the idiot who is going all-ing with just an Ace. It's not real easy to tell.

Even though you hate risking it all so early in a tourney, I think your odds of doubling up here are just too good to ignore. You very likely have him beat.

[cthomer5000]

Everything that's been discussed here is real interesting, and in a normal tourney I can see the merits to both calling and folding, but in a winner take all 60 person event, I think I lean towards a call here.
Excellent point. I think that on top of a general analysis of how someone would usually play a set make calling the right move here.

[Chubby]

I think Radii brings up another excellent point in that this is a winner takes all tourny. 2nd or 17th means nothing. By doubling up this early you can set the tempo for the table and steal pots that you have no business winning which will increase your stack.

[Glengoyne]

OK Here is the Deal.

First I will disclose that this wasn't my hand. It was the experience as relayed to me by a good friend, that is trying to suck me into online poker. He is fairly typically finishing well into the money on the $10 buy in tournaments on Paradise Poker.

When he described the hand to me. I said I'd have folded. My reasoning was that it is too much to risk too early, and just because you think you are likely in front, isn't always enough of a reason to risk your tournament "life".

When I told my friend I would have almost surely folded, he called me a pussy. Because "If you aren't going to call with the top two pair, when are you going to call?". My answer is that I would call an all-in with a helluva lot less later in the tournament, but I didn't have anything more solid to stand on, that "it was too early". I like the reasoning above from those that argue risk versus reward. I think that sums up my position better than "too early".


My friend called the bet.

The Button turned over K-K.

The turn brought a K, and the river was no help to either player.

So in the end, the button seriously overplayed his hand, and sucked out the winner to knock my buddy out of the tournament.

I don't know that there is a "wrong" play here really. Aces and Tens was SO far in front of KK, that you can't feel to disappointed about having your money on the table with those kinds of odds, well until the odds get turned upside down that is.

In any case thanks for all the analysis. You have all certainly given me stuff to think about.

[Chubby]

That's a bad beat. In retrospect, the other guy was doing your friend a favor by calling all-in. He just happened to draw out. It was obivously a semi-bluff as he had a hand but not even top pair. I've seen this happen all the time even on UB where pocket pair will overplay with an overcard on the board. It just wasn't your friend's night I guess with the drawout.

[cthomer5000]

In any case thanks for all the analysis. You have all certainly given me stuff to think about.
And I thank you, too. I've gone from uncertain to knowing exactly how I would play this situation if it occured to me (assuming the same type of winner take all tourney).

[primelord]

You should mention to your buddy that he still should have folded the A-10 preflop. :)

The guy with KK majorly misplayed this hand. He should have made a bigger raise preflop and only an idiot would bet $100 into a preflop raiser on an A high board without at least top pair. I was right though. He went all-in because he didn't want to be called. :)

[Glengoyne]

You should mention to your buddy that he still should have folded the A-10 preflop. :)
...

I told him I also wasn't 100 percent sure I would have actually called the original minimum raise either, but considering he was on the button, and only raised the minimum, I don't think A-10 is all that bad a hand against no more than three other players. Then again. I am not all that experienced at tournament hold'em. I have come to the conclusion that some guys think they are obligated to raise when they are on the button, so I don't necessarilly equate that to a statement of "power".

I also told him I would have opened with more than $100. I would have likely bet $300 or $400(possibly even $500). After reading some of the commentary above, I get the idea that might have been an over bet on my part.

[primelord]

I told him I also wasn't 100 percent sure I would have actually called the original minimum raise either, but considering he was on the button, and only raised the minimum, I don't think A-10 is all that bad a hand against no more than three other players. Then again. I am not all that experienced at tournament hold'em. I have come to the conclusion that some guys think they are obligated to raise when they are on the button, so I don't necessarilly equate that to a statement of "power".

I also told him I would have opened with more than $100. I would have likely bet $300 or $400(possibly even $500). After reading some of the commentary above, I get the idea that might have been an over bet on my part.
I don't think it is a terrible call, but it would have been a better call if your friend was on the button. Since he was out of position it could have got a bit ugly if he flopped an A, but not two pair. Now your in a position of almost having to bet that (if you aren't going to bet when you hit an A why play it) and then when the guy on the button makes the exact same play and pushes what do you do? Better to give up your blind than give up your blind and a flop bet.

And a lot of people say well I am only playing a hand like A-10 for 2 pair or better. However the odds of flopping two pair or better on unsuited cards 3 gap cards is about 8:1 against. So unless you are getting that on your money you are better off letting it go if you aren't going to play the lone A.