Prayer request - in advance for Ivan

[Flasch186]

FOFC:

It worked last time in more ways then one, in J'ville we got just enough of Frances to teach my whole family a lesson. We already have a couple rooms reserved in Biloxi. "If a tropical storm can do this....we aint stayin' " SO in advance prayer requests for anyone who has been or will be affected by Ivan.

[oliegirl]

I'll second that request...my parents own a Condo in Orange Beach, AL, right inbetween Pensacola and Mobile, and right where Ivan is headed. Although they aren't there right now, we are hoping and praying the area is safe and doens't get hit too hard.

[SirFozzie]

Prayers to all in Ivan's path

[Craptacular]

My parents just bought a condo in Naples in the last month or so. They're scheduled to fly down there Friday. As of this afternoon, they hadn't finalized a decision on whether or not to go for two days and try to get the hell out of there on Sunday morning. I'll add prayers for all those affected (or possibly affected by Ivan), and hope that there is still an insurance company who will cover them for less than a zillion dollars after this is all done.

[GoldenEagle]

Agreed. Prayers to everyone invovled. It looks nasty.

On a side note - I would go furhter inland than Biloxi.

[Flasch186]

Agreed. Prayers to everyone invovled. It looks nasty.

On a side note - I would go furhter inland than Biloxi.

Well at the time i was figuring, either there or here...it cant hit both. But now its so unpredictable and may snake in between the two that Im leaning towards agreement with that sentiment. Howevere we may know mor eon Sunday morning about potentially where it might go. If Biloxi gets a little rain, and a little win and has some waved in front of it, thats fine....but anything more and it'll have been a seriously wrong place on the map to go.

[duckman]

Best to those in Ivan's path! You'll be in our prayers.!

[Wolfpack]

Latest from NHC at 8 PM:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 102349
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

...CORRECT INITIAL POSITION...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
BRING THE CORE OF IVAN TO NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY AND OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED
TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 5
STATUS AS IT PASSES JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.3 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 926 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$


It's back up to 150 MPH, just a hair below Cat 5. Jamaica's about to get crunched by this one. The tragic thing I'm reading in various places is that the Jamaicans are woefully unprepared for this sort of storm. They got whacked by Gilbert back in '88 and that was only a Cat 3 at the time, but Gilbert caused severe damage as it ran the length of the island. Get set for some grim news by tomorrow afternoon.

[MizzouRah]

I will pray for everyone in its path. Be safe.


Todd

[Neuqua]

Good luck and best wishes everyone.

[SlapBone]

FOFC:

It worked last time in more ways then one, in J'ville we got just enough of Frances to teach my whole family a lesson. We already have a couple rooms reserved in Biloxi. "If a tropical storm can do this....we aint stayin' " SO in advance prayer requests for anyone who has been or will be affected by Ivan.

I thought all democrats were atheists...

[BigJohn&TheLions]

You guys are all missing the point. Prayers for Ivan Rodriguez. It would be great if he could get the batting title!

Oh, and I think he's with his family in Miami. Everyone else that's in the path of the Hurricane (and in the line of fire,) God Bless.

[Flasch186]

I thought all democrats were atheists...

ill assume thats a joke, HA!


or else....mo.

[Wolfpack]

I have to come to Flasch's defense on that. I live in one of the most ridiculously liberal towns in the country in Ann Arbor, but that hasn't stopped some of them coming to what I consider one of the more conservative churches in town, my own. (I say conservative because it's a general Baptist body that doesn't toe the line on every liberal issue in town, like homosexuality and abortion...one of the women in my small group is a flaming liberal except on those two issues....)

Granted, I don't know which church or church doctrines Flasch may subscribe to, but to dismiss his beliefs out-of-hand just because he's on the left is unfair to him without knowing him personally.

[Flasch186]

actually im jewish...but i dont go to a temple because I find the ones I have been to to be wrought with politics, corruption, judgment, and cliqueing......I mostly just have faith in a higher power, right and worng, the golden rule, and empathy. I however, do not claim to be part of the "right" religion, who knows what that is. I instead, count on faith. So your prayers are welcome, to whatever god you pray to, and I thank you for them.

[Wolfpack]

Oh, in that case...nah, just kiddin' with ya. ;)

At any rate it's beginning to look more and more like you are out of the crosshair in JAX, but some of our board friends over in Tally better start boarding up.

Continued prayers offered to one and all in FLA.

[Eaglesfan27]

Ivan's path keeps moving further west, and now those of us in New Orleans are facing a serious threat. Thanks in advance for the prayers. Also, to my online leagues, there is a good chance that I will be evacuating tomorrow afternoon if the path keeps moving west towards New Orleans.

By the way, I'm supposed to be on backup call for a hospital this weekend, I wonder how they are going to react if I do need to evacuate?

Also, anyone who is in New Orleans able to find "D" Batteries anywhere around here tonight? We found all of our other supplies but everywhere was sold out of batteries.

[stevew]

I hear that the possible loss of life in New Orleans could exceed 40k with a direct hit. Godspeed to all of you living there.

[Eaglesfan27]

Odd question perhaps, but does anyone know of any hotels or other places to stay in Houston, Texas that will allow us to have our cats with us?

Are there any hotels or similar types of places in any city that allow cats/dogs?

[Pumpy Tudors]

Hurricaaaaane!

[stevew]

Odd question perhaps, but does anyone know of any hotels or other places to stay in Houston, Texas that will allow us to have our cats with us?

Are there any hotels or similar types of places in any city that allow cats/dogs?

I didnt realize hotels had a strong "no pets" policy. Then again i dont have any. Dont ask, dont tell.

[Masked]

I hear that the possible loss of life in New Orleans could exceed 40k with a direct hit. Godspeed to all of you living there. The Red Cross has compiled a list of worst case natural disaster scenarios. By far the most devastating is a category 5 hurricane hitting New Orleans from south (second is a New Madrid earthquake and third is a repeat of the 1906 SF earthquake). Prior to landfall, the winds from the east would push water into Lake Pontchartrain. As the storm passes the winds change direction and push the water over the levees and into the city. Estimates are that portions of the city would be under 20+ feet of water and the water, now trapped by the levees, would have no where to go. All that said, by the time it hits land, Ivan is forecast to be below a category 5.

By the way, I'm supposed to be on backup call for a hospital this weekend, I wonder how they are going to react if I do need to evacuate? My Dad is on call Wednesday (and maybe Thursday), so my parents will "evacuate" to the hospital if necessary (as they have had to do for previous storms).

[GoldenEagle]

If any FOFCer needs refuge please let me know. I am sure I can arrange something. For example, EaglesFan27, you could get a hotel room in my city and keep your cats at my apartment.

I am in Cleveland, about 8 hours up the road.

[Pumpy Tudors]

If I have to go, my wife and I will go to my mother-in-law's house in Memphis, so I'd be set, although I despise travel.

[Eaglesfan27]

Thanks for the offer!

I'm probably going to go to Houston (which would normally only take about 5 hours without evacuation traffic.) I think I'm going to go the route of don't ask, don't tell. Also, I've heard rumors that Motel 6 and La Quinta will allow pets. Of course, I'm still hoping that when I wake up, the path will somehow have moved Eastward and evacuation won't be necessary. As far as evacuating to the hospital, they don't have a call room for me because it is only beeper call. Quite honestly, this hospital doesn't pay me that much (I'm early in my career so I take some not so great contracts) so if they want to fire me for evacuating.. so be it.

[LloydLungs]

Odd question perhaps, but does anyone know of any hotels or other places to stay in Houston, Texas that will allow us to have our cats with us?

Are there any hotels or similar types of places in any city that allow cats/dogs?

Smuggle 'em in if you need to. I'm sure you won't be the only one.

Man, am I nervous...

[MizzouRah]

Be safe EaglesFan! ..and the rest of you!!


Todd

[Ksyrup]

Looks to be moving away from us, although the 8am advisory shows it moving far more north than west, but no one knows whether that's jus a temporary thing or a new direction. If the latter, we're still in play. Really, it depends on whether the storm is able to start heading north, than northeast, before it makes landfall.

At this point, the only thing I know for sure is that I'm not taking any predictions to heart. These people really have no clue what these storms are going to do, and this whole thing reminds me of the stock brokers back in 1999/2000, who weren't predicting anything, just reacting after things happened (I wish I knew that before I lost all my money). This is the same type of scenario.

If it doesn't hit near us, at least we've got plywood cut for the next storm that does.

[Eaglesfan27]

Well Mrs. Eaglesfan and I are evacuating this afternoon just to be safe. We got a hotel room in Houston at a La Quinta, which accepts pets. Also, my mother in law and her grandparents will be at the same hotel (different rooms thankfully ;))

Anyway, I hope everyone stays safe. I might drop a quick note when we make it there as the hotel will have a dataport (but no highspeed internet.)

[Flasch186]

Im shifting the prayers I received (which worked) over to all those on the gulf coast. I'm wishing you all the best and good luck. Everyone, stand on the beach and blow, maybe we can blow this thing into Mexico!!! Seriously, start driving now....DO NOT WAIT.

[Wolfpack]

2 PM intermediate advisory still keeps the winds around 140 mph. Projections at 11 AM had the storm coming ashore about the MS-AL state line, but that isn't the bad news, if you can believe it. The bad news is that the storm is expected to stall out somewhere over the southern Appalachians. If that happens, combined with the rains from Frances, it would be an absolute disaster in that area.

The projections haven't been terribly accurate, however. I was thinking a Louisiana landfall early last week (nothing scientific to the guess, just a feeling) and it's a little bizarre to see it possibly pan out in defiance of every forecast that's been put out by the NHC. Fortunately, if it comes ashore anywhere, it shouldn't be a Cat 4/5. Gulf storms tend to weaken near shore, with a rare exception like Camille thrown in once in a while.

[albionmoonlight]

My family in New Orleans has evacuated North. Prayers, etc. appreciated.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Im shifting the prayers I received (which worked) over to all those on the gulf coast. I'm wishing you all the best and good luck. Everyone, stand on the beach and blow, maybe we can blow this thing into Mexico!!! Seriously, start driving now....DO NOT WAIT.


Flasch's god is stronger than the god of those in the Golf Coast region it seems.

But in all serious, good luck to everyone in the storm's path and be safe.

[Tigercat]

My family has been forced(mandatory) to evacuate out of St. Charles Parish. Luckily they had time to get through traffic and get my grandparents who live in low lineing areas in Gulfport, MS. God it sucks not being there to help out. At least everybody seems to be getting out quick enough, so the worst that can happen is property damage.

[Pumpy Tudors]

On my way out to Memphis. Will have net access while I'm there, so I'll be able to drop by. I absolutely hate traveling, but I guess it's better than sticking around for Ivan.

[Wolfpack]

5 PM EDT/4 PM CDT advisory is posted:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 142025
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW
ORLEANS AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

AT 4 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF
APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS IN MEXICO AND CUBA HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN
REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST
CATEGORY THREE.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER. WATER LEVELS ARE
ALREADY RUNNING UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST...AND WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...24.2 N... 86.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$


The individual models have all continued to cluster in the area around the Mississippi-Alabama border, except for one that now shows a Pensacola area landfall, though with a storm this large, both Pensacola, Mobile, Biloxi and to a lesser extent New Orleans are going to get slammed.

The NHC has shifted its prediction a little east since the 11 AM EDT forecast. Ivan is now expected to push ashore due south of Mobile, which could mean a heavy surge into Mobile Bay and up the Tombigbee and Alabama Rivers as that region will be on the eastern side of the eye.

In a twist, being on the western side of the storm is actually bad news for New Orleans as the storm will push water from the Gulf into Lake Ponchartrain initially with east winds over the north side of the hurricane, then push the lake water into the city with winds from the northeast and north as the storm passes to the east. The closer to New Orleans, the worse the impact. Probably the worst place to landfall for New Orleans is around the Louisiana-Mississippi line, which isn't all that far from the projected spot now, so NO folks don't relax yet.

[Wolfpack]

Dola...

An unpleasant statement to lead the 5 PM EDT discussion statement:
"THIS MORNING'S WEAKENING TREND HAS CEASED AND THE OUTER EYEWALL OF IVAN IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED."

IOW, it's going to probably maintain intensity and may even strengthen a little during the next 12-24 hrs, though the NHC still thinks conditions will get less favorable after that and the storm should weaken again. It should still be at least a Cat 3 at landfall. Just isn't enough real estate to take the steam out of it before then.

[Wolfpack]

Double dola...(delayed)

Flasch better start up the prayer requests again...Tropical Storm Jeanne has formed up and begun strengthening just west of the Leewards and south of Puerto Rico during the day today. Forecasts at this point have it running the gap between PR and Hispanola (nicking both in the process) and into the Bahamas. Track after that is less certain, but SE FLA is already in the five-day window for possible approach from the storm, though most indications seem to favor a turn more towards the NW in the Bahamas, which would direct the storm generally towards the Carolinas. All I can say is I hope this isn't going to landfall anywhere. With the good certainty that Ivan will be spending its dying days over the southeast and with the damage already from Charley and Frances, I don't think the southeast can take any more of the punishment.

[druez]

Odd question perhaps, but does anyone know of any hotels or other places to stay in Houston, Texas that will allow us to have our cats with us?

Are there any hotels or similar types of places in any city that allow cats/dogs?

I live in Houston and I'm pretty sure that some of the non chain style of hotels would allow it. They just aren't the nicest. How many cats do you have? If you are coming To houston you can drop your cats off with us, till you are ready to leave.

[Craptacular]

Latest (10 PM central) discussion from the NHC, which I usually find to be more informative than the advisory. Note their prediction of 120-125 knots (about 140-145 mph) winds in 36 hours (just afer expected landfall), which is the same or greater than the current wind speeds. Yikes!



000
WTNT44 KNHC 150233
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

OBSERVATIONS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT IVAN IS MAINTAINING 120 KT...CAT. 4...INTENSITY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GPS DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA
G-IV JET INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AS WELL. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE CORE WILL PASS OVER SOME HIGHER
HEAT CONTENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE
COAST...A SHALLOWER LAYER OF WARM WATERS AND SOME INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR COULD CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING. HOWEVER...WE
EMPHASIZE THAT IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS
HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...NOW 340/10. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IVAN IS BEING STEERED MAINLY BY THE FLOW ON
THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS ON THE
PREDICTED TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 5
DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT IVAN WILL NOT GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES BUT
RATHER WILL STALL OR MOVE ERRATICALLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. SO THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...
SHOWS NO MOVEMENT AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY
STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WELL INLAND ALONG ITS PATH. NOTE THAT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH 12 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 25.1N 87.2W 120 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 26.6N 87.8W 125 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 28.6N 88.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 30.6N 88.2W 120 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/0000Z 32.6N 87.6W 70 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/0000Z 35.0N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/0000Z 35.5N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/0000Z 35.5N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND</pre>

[Eaglesfan27]

Update:

It took us 6 hours to go the first 48 miles. It took us 3 more hours to go the next 26 miles. It took us 3 hours more to go another 75 miles. Then, we covered the last 200 plus miles in about 3 hours. Together, it was 15 hours of pure misery. I was driving one car alone with one cat, and my wife was driving the other car alone with the other cat. We thought about stopping to sleep on the road several times, but we are both used to staying up really long due to our jobs.

Anyway, we are now at La Quinta in Houston which allows cats. We arrived just after 5 AM. The good news is that our room is quite nice. There is an unsecured wireless web somewhere in the area, that is giving me highspeed internet! I guess I should feel bad about using it, but it is most likely the hotel's internet, and we are paying for the hotel. That is a rationalization I know.

Also, we were only supposed to be given this room for the night (with the inlaws having 2 other rooms), but the hotel had enough cancellations that all 3 of us can stay in our respective rooms if we promised to stay through Saturday? I doubt we will stay til Saturday unless New Orleans ends up under water, but we will stay til Friday so paying for the extra day seems worth it as the next closest hotel with room available is 3 hours further from New Orleans (we had made reservations and just cancelled them - a La Quinta outside Austin, TX.) Anyway, still a little sleep deprived but here safely. Prayers to anyone still in the Gulf Coast region or other parts of the path of Ivan.

[Eaglesfan27]

Dola -

I just discovered this internet connection is just strong enough to reach my bed, but if I try to go over to the business table with the computer, I lose the connection. I wonder where the source is located.

[Eaglesfan27]

Double Dola -

This internet connection and mapquest and such is going to be very useful for finding places here in the city.

[druez]

Update:

It took us 6 hours to go the first 48 miles. It took us 3 more hours to go the next 26 miles. It took us 3 hours more to go another 75 miles. Then, we covered the last 200 plus miles in about 3 hours. Together, it was 15 hours of pure misery. I was driving one car alone with one cat, and my wife was driving the other car alone with the other cat. We thought about stopping to sleep on the road several times, but we are both used to staying up really long due to our jobs.

Anyway, we are now at La Quinta in Houston which allows cats. We arrived just after 5 AM. The good news is that our room is quite nice. There is an unsecured wireless web somewhere in the area, that is giving me highspeed internet! I guess I should feel bad about using it, but it is most likely the hotel's internet, and we are paying for the hotel. That is a rationalization I know.

Also, we were only supposed to be given this room for the night (with the inlaws having 2 other rooms), but the hotel had enough cancellations that all 3 of us can stay in our respective rooms if we promised to stay through Saturday? I doubt we will stay til Saturday unless New Orleans ends up under water, but we will stay til Friday so paying for the extra day seems worth it as the next closest hotel with room available is 3 hours further from New Orleans (we had made reservations and just cancelled them - a La Quinta outside Austin, TX.) Anyway, still a little sleep deprived but here safely. Prayers to anyone still in the Gulf Coast region or other parts of the path of Ivan.


Which LaQuinta are you staying at? THe one near Kingwood and 59? or the one near 45 and the woodlands?

[Eaglesfan27]

It on I-45. 17111 North Freeway is the address, I think?

[Subby]

Glad to hear you guys got out of there safely...

[IMetTrentGreen]

obviously god has gotten tired of that sinful town, new orleans. i would say he knows best

[Subby]

obviously god has gotten tired of that sinful town, new orleans. i would say he knows bestYou are such an insufferable tool...

[druez]

It on I-45. 17111 North Freeway is the address, I think?

You are near the woodlands. Real nice area. Good food, nice mall and golfing. If you guys need any directions or help send me an email [email protected] and I'll be happy to help you out. My wife has live in houston her whole life, I've only been here four years.

[Eaglesfan27]

Thanks, I appreciate it. I'm looking at the internet right now to try to figure out where to take the family for dinner. Everyone agrees we want buffet tonight. Has to meet the varied food interests of Ms. Eaglesfan's grandparents, her mother, her younger brother and sister, and us. Mapquest, yellow pages, and a few other sites have been very helpful, but I'd welcome any opinions from people who know the city.

[albionmoonlight]

obviously god has gotten tired of that sinful town, new orleans. i would say he knows best
I'm not vocal. Nor am I into flame wars. Accordingly, getting on my bad side on the internet probably will not change your life much one way or the other. Still, you have made your impression on me today, and I don't think that it is one from which you are likely to ever recover.

[Flasch186]

glad you got out.

[SirFozzie]

obviously god has gotten tired of that sinful town, new orleans. i would say he knows best

To steal a quote from another board I hang out at..

"Welcome to my Ignore List, asshole!"

[duckman]

obviously god has gotten tired of that sinful town, new orleans. i would say he knows best
You're a pure waste of oxygen.

[Wolfpack]

Relax. Take satisfaction in the fact that his "God-smiting" prediction has completely and utterly not panned out. New Orleans will get away pretty much unscathed with this storm. All observations and radar show the storm passing east far enough that at most, NOLA has just gotten maybe some showers and good wind out of this storm. Last observations had winds about 25-35 mph with gusts getting into the low 40s. More importantly, the winds are now coming out of the north, which means the city is now abeam of the storm and should see conditions improve as the night goes along.

The same can't be said for Biloxi, Mobile, or Pensacola. Those places are going to get real bad within the next four or five hours. It may be well into the morning or early afternoon before things improve in those areas.

The irony in his statement is the fact that I would think these areas are much more God-fearing than NOLA is, but as the Bible says, "He causes rain to fall on the just and unjust alike." (Out of context, yes, but still no less applicable.)

[Ksyrup]

We're getting some strong gusts of wind right now. Rain is off and on. Just like with the other systems, it seems like we have some sort of force field around the city that is keeping us from really experiencing much of anything. All day, bands of rain have stopped short of the city limits or skirted past and on to other areas around us. That hasn't kept the city from shutting down tomorrow, just in case.

[duckman]

I hope my buddies in the Florida panhandle will be okay.

[Flasch186]

unbelieveably it looks like handle got it worst of all. I didnt expect that. Anyways, my prayers are with you and everyone, including Trent's so called sinners in NO. MO!!

[Ksyrup]

The city is shut down today, but I just got to work. I'll probably stay here for a couple of hours and go home. We have gotten some pretty good wind, but not much rain. Worst of it was a nasty line that came through between 3am and 5am, woke us up. It was howling and pouring pretty bad.

If we combined the rain from Francis and the wind from Ivan, I imagine we'd have had a decent storm.

[GrantDawg]

It keeps getting dark here but nothings happening yet. I really don't expect too much this side of town, but I imagine you rich boys up on the north side is going to get some rough stuff. We are under a tornado watch as of a few minutes ago.

[Eaglesfan27]

We are quite glad that New Orleans was spared the brunt of the storm. We reserved the room through Saturday and are going to stay tonight as a result (but need to return to work tomorrow afternoon.) We are going to leave around 4:00 AM hoping to beat the traffic. Prayers for a safe and quick drive back to New Orleans are appreciated. I hope those of you in Georgia and along the coast are doing ok with the remenants of the storm.

[Eaglesfan27]

Delayed Dola -

Glad to say that traffic was wonderful for the ride home. It took us 15 hours to go from New Orleans to Houston, but we made it back in just under 6 hours. Furthermore, our place has some little branches broken off in the front yard, but no damage and we have power.

[duckman]

Delayed Dola -

Glad to say that traffic was wonderful for the ride home. It took us 15 hours to go from New Orleans to Houston, but we made it back in just under 6 hours. Furthermore, our place has some little branches broken off in the front yard, but no damage and we have power.That's good to hear, Eaglesfan27. Glad you made it back okay.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I just got back to New Orleans about an hour ago. My wife was having fun back home in Memphis, so she wanted to stay an extra couple of days. Everything's good here. Thanks to those of you who were kind enough to offer good wishes to me and my fellow New Orleanians.

[Eaglesfan27]

Glad to hear you made it back ok.