WTF? Ivan back in the Gulf of Mexico

[GoldenEagle]

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tropical/strm9_tropw_720x486.jpg

OMG!!!11 WTF???

[Ksyrup]

Yup. I'm not sure how it happened, but some of the tropical disturbance stuck around Florida, dumped some rain on central Florida yesterday, and made its way out into the Gulf. They were trying to deide whether to give it a new name or not, but I guess tat decision has been made.

It's like a Friday the 13th movie...

Between this regeneration and Jeanne doing loops in the Atlantic and possibly threatening the FL/SC/NC coast...some weird stuff going on.

[Buccaneer]

I thought it went through and out of New England?

[Craptacular]

... and Lisa might get swallowed whole by ANOTHER tropical distrubance. It's almost like a tropical storm battle royale going on.

[GoldenEagle]

I thought it went through and out of New England?
It came back around and moved through Florida. Hurricane Jeanne was going away from the US and out to sea when it made a turn back to the US. Hurricane Karl is out there somwhere as well, but experts think it is no threat to the US. Tropical Storm Lisa is forming and could be a potential strong storm. There is a tropical depression right on the heels of Lisa.

[sabotai]

The hurricanes really are pissed at us right now...

[Craptacular]

Brand new discussion on Jeanne from NOAA. The second half should be of particular interest to Florida.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 230253
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

JEANNE HAS A LARGE EYE BUT CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AT THIS TIME.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED AND THE T-NUMBERS
REMAIN AT 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. A NOAA PLANE MEASURED 93 KNOTS
AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 966 MB. METEOROLOGISTS ON
THE NOAA RECONAISSANCE PLANE INFORMED BY PHONE THAT THE
EYE WAS VERY DISTINCT ON RADAR....AND THAT THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE
NEAR JEANNE WAS ABOUT 26C BUT INCREASED TO 28C ABOUT 100 MILES TO
THE WEST. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER JEANNE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO
3 DAYS. THIS PATTERN ALONG THE INCREASE IN SSTS...WOULD FAVOR SOME
STREGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4
KNOTS. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS MOVING EASTWARD. THIS STRONG HIGH SHOULD
BEGIN TO FORCE JEANNE TO MOVE WESTWARD SOON...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS
THE CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE NOW BRINGING JEANNE
NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. EVEN THE
GFS...WHICH PREVIOULSY TURNED JEANNE NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING
FLORIDA...IS NOW BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER THE PENINSULA. I WAS
TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FARTHER WESTWARD...BUT
BECAUSE IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP CONTINUITY...ONLY A LITTLE WESTWARD
SHIFT IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE FORECAST OF THE STEERING CURRENTS...FLORIDA SHOULD PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF JEANNE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 25.6N 69.3W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 25.6N 70.0W 85 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 25.5N 71.5W 90 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 25.5N 73.0W 90 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 26.0N 75.0W 95 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 27.5N 78.6W 95 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 30.0N 80.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 34.0N 78.0W 75 KT


$$

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[cthomer5000]

The hurricanes really are pissed at us right now......thanks to Flasch having us boss them around so frequently.

[Tigercat]

The hurricanes really are pissed at us right now...

Maybe its all the praying that went on on this board? WHY HAVE YOU FORSAKEN US JEBUS?

[Flasch186]

i demand them all to STOP immediately!! go back to your home!!!

[Dutch]

...thanks for Flasch having us boss them around so frequently.


sorry....but that was funny. :)

[Craptacular]

Heck, even ICELAND might get hit by Karl when it's still at Tropical Storm strength.

[Ksyrup]

That discussion on Jeanne is interesting. Earlier today, only one model had it hitting Florida, the rest had it coming close, than curving almost exactly with the coast line until it hit NC. The next 3 days will be important - ifit keeps on a westerly track and doesn't turn in time...Flasch might be seeing something from Jeanne afterall.

[Flasch186]

That discussion on Jeanne is interesting. Earlier today, only one model had it hitting Florida, the rest had it coming close, than curving almost exactly with the coast line until it hit NC. The next 3 days will be important - ifit keeps on a westerly track and doesn't turn in time...Flasch might be seeing something from Jeanne afterall.


NO, we wont....I demand it go out to see and die out!!! anyone wanna join me on the beach to blow, since prayers became offensive around here?

[Ksyrup]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1104W5+GIF/230313W5.gif

[Ksyrup]

NO, we wont....I demand it go out to see and die out!!! anyone wanna join me on the beach to blow, since prayers became offensive around here?
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that you blowing would be more offensive than you praying.

[Tigercat]

NO, we wont....I demand it go out to see and die out!!! anyone wanna join me on the beach to blow, since prayers became offensive around here?

I dont think homoerotica and/or drugs on a beach will send off a hurricane, but damnit I am willing to try! Beats praying anyway.

[Flasch186]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that you blowing would be more offensive than you praying.

you know what i meant dangit :)

[Craptacular]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/jeanne-karl-lisa092204-1745z.jpg

This is a cool picture from NOAA. It's a high-resolution satellite image that captures Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa, and the disturbance that might swallow Lisa.

[Solecismic]

http://www.solecismic.com/jeanne.gif

[SlapBone]

Hey...it's Shorty!

Good job man.

[Ksyrup]

LOL!

[ScottVib]

I thought it went through and out of New England?
What happened is that most of the moisture got sheared away from the Center of Circulation of the storm. That moisture is what impacted New England last weekend.

However the circulation center has stuck around in the Southeast for the last week, recently re-emerging over the Gulf. When it did this it still had some tropic characteristics and a closed circulation. (The precipitation is still sheared away from the center as it's not in a very favorable area for development currently)

At this point the NHC had a debate over whether to continue to call it Ivan or give it the next name (Matthew). Eventually the fact that you could follow this circulation continuously since it's landfall won out and the storm was classified as Ivan. It'll make landfall again, a shadow of it's former self.

[GrantDawg]

Guess whose back,
back again...

[sabotai]

Ivan's back,
tell a friend

[Noop]

What did Florida do? For everyone in Florida I think this is a sign all those who can vote must vote correctly because some how it was stolen last time.

[Router Help]

Hmmmmm. . . .
http://photomatt.net/dropbox/2004/09/election-hurricane.gif

[Ksyrup]

Now THAT is funny as shit.

[Noop]

Hmmmmm. . . .
http://photomatt.net/dropbox/2004/09/election-hurricane.gif
That is crazy.

[Ksyrup]

It's quite conceivable that Jeanne could take the Frances path up until it intersects with Charley, then take the Charley path up through Jacksonville.

Now, if all it does is skim the coastal counties, and it hits at least 5 Bush coastal counties without touching a Gore county (meaning it would likely have to skip over St. Lucie, Volusia, and Flagler, while coming on shore briefly to hit the Bush counties)...then I will give serious consideration to voting for Kerry.

[rkmsuf]

But weren't some of the Bush counties actually Gore counties?

It's all very confusing.

[Ksyrup]

I found this map on a University of Miami website, so I think the counties can be confirmed. Just not sure about the exact path of the storms. Either way, it's close enough for effect.

http://picserver.student.utwente.nl/view_image.php/E659HY679539/picserver.gif

[Router Help]

I guess I'll debunk my own post.

http://snopes.com/politics/bush/hurricane.asp

[Ksyrup]

I was just about to post that. I didn't think about it at first, cause I figured it was so new, snopes might not have it yet.

As I look at it again, I do see something wrong with Charley's path. Too much of a NNW track.

[Solecismic]

That's too bad. Dan Rather was just on the television with that map.

[Ben E Lou]

That's too bad. Dan Rather was just on the television with that map.:D