Alright boyz - 2004 Presidential Election Thread

[John Galt]

Someone had to do it. :)

It is good to be home.

[GrantDawg]

Someone had to do it. :)

It is good to be home.
Just in time, too. It'll be fun monitoring the boards as we monitor the returns.

[Fonzie]

Group hug!

[Peregrine]

It is good to be home.

If I could hug a message board I'd do so right now! :)

[John Galt]

BTW, much to Franklinnoble's dismay I'm sure, I was the Patriotic Undies on Bennie Lou's board, so I stand by my prediction that Kerry will win big.

[JAG]

Nice job, I thought it was WSUCougar.

[SirFozzie]

the #'s look pretty good for John Kerry so far from the exit polls, even if you do have to take it with a huge Texas sized grain of salt..

[Ksyrup]

Bringing that discussion over here, after Jim's detailing of the early exit polls, someone suggested that those polls might have been skewed because they were heavily female. Anyone have a source for that? Can anyone get to exit-poll.net, or is it impossible?

[Peregrine]

I looked at exit-poll.net (using Google cache) , but it seemed like a subscription service you have to pay for to get the information in any case.

[John Galt]

Bringing that discussion over here, after Jim's detailing of the early exit polls, someone suggested that those polls might have been skewed because they were heavily female. Anyone have a source for that? Can anyone get to exit-poll.net, or is it impossible?

I don't have a source, but I have heard from several people around here that the polls were 59 female. They attribute the source to Drudge, but I can't find it there and he has killed exit-poll.net by linking to it.

[Ksyrup]

I can't even load the front page. But buying a subscription to that is even more of a waste than subscribing to rivals.com for recruiting info on signing day.

[John Galt]

I can't even load the front page. But buying a subscription to that is even more of a waste than subscribing to rivals.com for recruiting info on signing day.

I think the service is designed for news organizations to subscribe to (not individuals) - that is why they probably weren't expecting the Drudge traffic to crash their site.

[Ksyrup]

Huh. Odd that he would link to them then.

[Alf]

What time do you expect the final "estimation" to be published ?

[WSUCougar]

Nice job, I thought it was WSUCougar.
I feel so...funky. :p

[John Galt]

Huh. Odd that he would link to them then.

My guess is that he is a subscriber and wanted to show the 6 news organizations that are using it (that was the text of the link I saw). Of course, he should have known the result.

[John Galt]

I feel so...funky. :p

It will probably be the last time we are confused for one another. :p

[Fonzie]

It will probably be the last time we are confused for one another. :p

But will it be the last time either of you are accused of being snugly wrapped around Ben's supple buttocks? :D

[Peregrine]

I just don't buy the exit polls, it's way too early IMO for Drudge or anyone else to be calling Senate races. Let's relax a bit and let more info come in.

[Ksyrup]

Yeah, I'm shocked he would call the Martinez/Castor race already. Especially since Castor appeared to be in the lead, and he called it for Martinez.

[John Galt]

I found a well-known blog posting exit polls:

http://www.dailykos.com/

[John Galt]

I just don't buy the exit polls, it's way too early IMO for Drudge or anyone else to be calling Senate races. Let's relax a bit and let more info come in.

Party pooper.

[digamma]

slate has new exit polls up that show things tipping Kerry's way, though not as dramatically as the earlier exits. the major one though is PA, where slate shows a 58-42 Kerry edge. Supposedly (and I think that is still a big supposedly), these exits are better sampled than the morning run.

Bush's prices on the Iowa markets (and other similar markets) have crashed throughout the day.

[JAG]

I feel so...funky. :p

Back off man, I'm a scientist. :)

[GrantDawg]

BTW, much to Franklinnoble's dismay I'm sure, I was the Patriotic Undies on Bennie Lou's board, so I stand by my prediction that Kerry will win big.
I could have called that. I think the Kerry win will be closer though.

[John Galt]

I could have called that. I think the Kerry win will be closer though.

That's just because you were moderator over there. Now you are back in Skydog territory, so you better step off. :p

[GrantDawg]

That's just because you were moderator over there. Now you are back in Skydog territory, so you better step off. :p
I have more control on this board (though only allowed to use it when asked) than on that board. I actually just guessed.

[John Galt]

I have more control on this board (though only allowed to use it when asked) than on that board. I actually just guessed.

Damn it! Foiled again. I can never fool the master or mis-spelling.

[GrantDawg]

Damn it! Foiled again. I can never fool the master or mis-spelling.
Good won. :)

[Franklinnoble]

I knew there was something alluring about those patriotic undies... you tease.

[John Galt]

slate has new exit polls up that show things tipping Kerry's way, though not as dramatically as the earlier exits. the major one though is PA, where slate shows a 58-42 Kerry edge. Supposedly (and I think that is still a big supposedly), these exits are better sampled than the morning run.

Bush's prices on the Iowa markets (and other similar markets) have crashed throughout the day.

Here is the link to the slate poll page: http://slate.msn.com/id/2109053/

[Fonzie]

Here is the link to the slate poll page: http://slate.msn.com/id/2109053/

"Service Unavailable"

:(

[John Galt]

"Service Unavailable"

:(

I get that sometimes too. Try going to the main Slate page and it is the top story link.

[GrantDawg]

1 hour and counting before early returns.

[TargetPractice6]

Polls just closed here. Bush has around 60% of the 1% of votes reported so far.

[EagleFan]

If Kerry wins, I'm moving. I'm not like one of those poser Hollywood idiots either, I actually mean it.



.....


But then again, I'm moving if Bush wins too. ;)

[TargetPractice6]

No surprises here. Bush leading with 63% and 5% reporting.

[Buccaneer]

I don't like typing again so I'll just paste my election duty post from ben's place (to make it FOFC-compatible of course).

Having juse voted, I am reminded at how easy the process is here (compared to elsewhere supposedly). We are fairly populous county (184 precints) and well educated, yet we still fill in bubbles on a large Scantron-like card. Computer voting is just prone to too many problems, glitches and hacks. I think a long time ago we did use punch cards but we all saw how those can problematic too. If you want to make sure your vote counted and counted correctly, how about keeping it simple?

For the first time ever, I voted consistently. I held my nose on President but every other elected office, I voted straight Libertarian - included our contentious Senate race (Coors/Salazar). Of course, I voted out all of the judges and voted NO on every single Amendment. I want to actively make a difference instead of the status quo and these votes (except for President) is my way of doing so.

[Buccaneer]

Sabotai, I saw your vote post and I would be curious as to why a fellow libertarian would vote Kerry. Am I right in assuming that you would want to go for gridlock?

[Buccaneer]

According to the Balance of Power graphics, there is ONE seat filled for the House of Representatives. Please Lord, don't let them add any more...please???

[sabotai]

Sabotai, I saw your vote post and I would be curious as to why a fellow libertarian would vote Kerry. Am I right in assuming that you would want to go for gridlock?

That was the deciding thing (if I read right what you mean by "gridlock"). The House will stay republican and I think the Senate will as well (haven't been following possible senate races). With a Dem in the White House, they'll kind of offset. Kerry won't get his big plans pushed through a congress opposed to him while at least some of those republican bills that are all passing without a threat of veto will start getting vetoed.

Besides, Bush has been against a lot of the important issues for me. No importing prescription drugs from Canada (that's anti-free market). Not allowing Medicare (or Medicaid...whatever) to negotiate drugs costs (anti-free market in more ways than one). He's Pro-Life, I'm pro-choice and I don't trust him for one second that he wouldn't have some kind of lipmus test (sp?). I hear him speak of fiscal responsibility, which he has made no effort to be. The Patriot Act. No Child Left Behind (federal involvement in education).

He's the worst kind of republican.

And don't get me started on Cheney, Ashcroft and Rumsfeld...those 3 are worth a vote against even if I liked Bush.

I don't expect Kerry to fix a tenth of the damage Bush has done, but at the least, he might be able to reverse some of what Bush has done, but not be able to push his own (non)solutions to things. Gridlock.

Plus, getting Kerry in the White Hosue does two things potentially. It could get McCain to run in 2008. I think the Rep. Party would want to follow a Bush second term with a repub that is more like Bush, meaning not McCain. If Bush loses, maybe it'll knock some sense back into the republican party. And two, it stops Hillary from running in 2008.

I think we can both agree that a Hillary Clinton Presidency is something that needs to be avoided at all costs. :)

[GrantDawg]

No call in Ohio at close (no surprise) but I am shocked they can't call North Carolina yet. Isn't that a pretty strong red state?

[Buccaneer]

I don't expect Kerry to fix a tenth of the damage Bush has done, but at the least, he might be able to reverse some of what Bush has done, but not be able to push his own (non)solutions to things. Gridlock.

That's an interesting statement, sab. Even if one were to go along with the damage that was done (wasn't a lot of it undoing the damage that Clinton did? I digress.), aren't we are certain that a Kerry administration will cause damage on their own - that someone like McCain would have to come in and fix?

Apart from being philosophical that we did manage to get through 8 years of Clinton (thanks, in part, to a Rep. Congress), we can get through 4 years of Kerry, if elected. It will be 4 because as you said, you got some very electable Rep. coming in 2008 (McCain, Owens, et al) and the Dems will counter with the likes of the Clinton Bitch, Dean and Obama.

[Bee]

No call in Ohio at close (no surprise) but I am shocked they can't call North Carolina yet. Isn't that a pretty strong red state?

Yep, it was supposed to be solidly Bush as was Virginia which still hasn't been called yet.

[Buccaneer]

No call in Ohio at close (no surprise) but I am shocked they can't call North Carolina yet. Isn't that a pretty strong red state?
Which brings to mind a question. What in the world did Edwards add to the ticket, besides being a sleazy trial lawyer?

[GrantDawg]

Yep, it was supposed to be solidly Bush as was Virginia which still hasn't been called yet.
That was supposed to be a sign of Kerry strength nation wise according to the early talking heads.

[Peregrine]

I think North Carolina will eventually go for Bush but it won't surprise me if it's really close, more Democratic-leaning urban voters plus disillusioned manufacturing sector workers will give Kerry a good bit of support.

[Buccaneer]

That was supposed to be a sign of Kerry strength nation wise according to the early talking heads.
Remember what's different this year is that the media will hold off until they have enough information. For those more populous states (OH, VA, NC), there is not information yet.

[GrantDawg]

Remember what's different this year is that the media will hold off until they have enough information. For those more populous states (OH, VA, NC), there is not information yet.
That is true, but the point is that these two states are too close though they should be solid Bush wins. It might suggest a 1-2% tick up for Kerry across the board which would give him a win.

Just an early talking point, not a slam dunk indicator like the Redskins losing.

[Bee]

Looks like WV has gone to Bush (which isn't a big surprise, although some thought it might not get called right away).

[Peregrine]

What's cracking me up about CNN's coverage is that since they're calling the states on strong exit polls, but they have the same crawl system set up, you see things like:

Georgia (called for Bush) Bush 38% 130 - Kerry 62% 212

Those 342 votes must count a hell of a lot! ;)

[Buccaneer]

GD, it all depends which 1% of the precincts they count first, from an urban area or a statewide sample. I believe that differs from state to state.

[Peregrine]

Anyone have a good line on the Kentucky Senate race? Looks like right now Bunning is showing as losing, I thought people felt that was a pretty safe GOP hold.

[Chubby]

Anyone have a good line on the Kentucky Senate race? Looks like right now Bunning is showing as losing, I thought people felt that was a pretty safe GOP hold.
Last I saw, he was trailing but it's still wayyyyyyy early.

[Bee]

Remember what's different this year is that the media will hold off until they have enough information. For those more populous states (OH, VA, NC), there is not information yet.

I think what it indicates is that the exit polls were much closer in NC and VA than expected. They still are using exit polls and then filling in the statistical model with actual results until they get a degree of certainty (1 in 300 of being wrong according to FoxNews compared to 1 in 250 in 2000). If the exit polls were as strong for Bush as the pre-election polls, they'd have been called by now, especially in VA where the polls closed at 6 pm.

[Buccaneer]

You know, despite all of the rhetoric and gnashing of false teeth, we have to feel very fortunate that 1) no domestic terrorists act disrupted the election and 2) that we can have a peaceful election and no one will riot as the result.

[GrantDawg]

I think what it indicates is that the exit polls were much closer in NC and VA than expected. They still are using exit polls and then filling in the statistical model with actual results until they get a degree of certainty (1 in 300 of being wrong according to FoxNews compared to 1 in 250 in 2000). If the exit polls were as strong for Bush as the pre-election polls, they'd have been called by now, especially in VA where the polls closed at 6 pm.
Exactly.


BTW, Dan Rather is still nuts and it hasn't even gotten late yet.

[gottimd]

Not sure if anyone posted this yet, but WTF, I am doing it anyways...
Exit Polls Report as of 4PM (http://fray.slate.msn.com/id/2109053/)

[Buccaneer]

I think what it indicates is that the exit polls were much closer in NC and VA than expected. They still are using exit polls and then filling in the statistical model with actual results until they get a degree of certainty (1 in 300 of being wrong according to FoxNews compared to 1 in 250 in 2000). If the exit polls were as strong for Bush as the pre-election polls, they'd have been called by now, especially in VA where the polls closed at 6 pm.
Hasn't history shown that exit polls are fallible?

[GrantDawg]

Hasn't history shown that exit polls are fallible?
Yes, but your still missing the point. If it were a wide margin, then they could and would call. A close margin is what messes up exit polls, and that looks good for Kerry (not to win those states, but as a trend for even closer states).


Latest Rather line: Don't taunt the aligator until you have already crossed the creek.

[sabotai]

That's an interesting statement, sab. Even if one were to go along with the damage that was done (wasn't a lot of it undoing the damage that Clinton did? I digress.), aren't we are certain that a Kerry administration will cause damage on their own - that someone like McCain would have to come in and fix?

Basically, yeah. As long as we keep alternating presidents who have to spend a good portion of time fixing the mistakes of the previous election, they don't have time to do a lot of damage. IOW, they don't get going. There's no momentum and nothing major really gets totally fucked up. Keeping one party in chage of the execuative and the other in charge of the legislative also helps prevent the Prez doing some major damage. I really think if Bush wins, and the congress stays Republican, the next 4 years will be very very bad.

Apart from being philosophical that we did manage to get through 8 years of Clinton (thanks, in part, to a Rep. Congress), we can get through 4 years of Kerry, if elected. It will be 4 because as you said, you got some very electable Rep. coming in 2008 (McCain, Owens, et al) and the Dems will counter with the likes of the Clinton Bitch, Dean and Obama.

Let's hope by 2012, the Dems find some one else besides Dean and Clinton, although I doubt Dean is "electable". Unless McCain wins in 2008, then let's hope the Dems keep shooting themselves in the foot. Then hopefully by 2016, Clinton and Dean is out of the picture.

Ideally, we would like libertrian minded moderates from either side. Right now, Bush and Kerry, are way too far to the right or left. Hopefully, after enough 1 term presidencies, they'll get the picture and start going back to the middle.

[Bee]

Hasn't history shown that exit polls are fallible?

Any poll can be fallible. The average poll is wrong 5% of the time. Exit polls tend to be more accurate than an average poll, but the media still waits to report until they can do so with the odds of the poll being wrong only 1 out of 300 times (edit: At least that's FoxNews criteria, I'd guess all media have similar criteria). The bigger the statistical lead in the original exit polls the less % of precincts reporting are needed.

Right now Virginia has 12% reporting and Bush with 57%, but they still haven't called it. That indicates to me that the exit polls were very close.

[Buccaneer]

But a wide margin where? It's only as good as the sampling data and where you choose to poll. For example, here in Rep-dominated Colorado Springs, there are no sampling or exit polling because the model is predictive. However, if you look at just Denver and Pueblo for exit polling, then the results will be skewed.

[Peregrine]

Unless McCain wins in 2008

As much as I would love to see this happen, I just don't think the national Republican Party will let McCain be their nominee. He's too moderate for many of them, and he doesn't play nice with their political machine, as was seen by its reaction to him in the 2000 election. That said, I think he could win in a landslide if he was nominated. He's just that popular, I'd be jumping for joy to vote for him.

[TargetPractice6]

Anyone have a good line on the Kentucky Senate race? Looks like right now Bunning is showing as losing, I thought people felt that was a pretty safe GOP hold.Bunning should have easily won, but throughout the campaign continued to make mistakes. I believe he is becoming senile. He cheated during one of the debates and has insulted Mongiardo several times (for example saying he looked like one of Saddam's sons).

[Bee]

But a wide margin where? It's only as good as the sampling data and where you choose to poll. For example, here in Rep-dominated Colorado Springs, there are no sampling or exit polling because the model is predictive. However, if you look at just Denver and Pueblo for exit polling, then the results will be skewed.

That's why they use a statistical model. The exit polls are weighed statewide based on dozens of factors. The accuracy improves as more precincts report. If they are slow to call a state like they have been in VA where Bush is expected to win solidly with 12% of the precinct reporting it indicates exit polls that were much closer than expected.

[Peregrine]

CNN is calling New Jersey for Kerry, despite the polls in recent days I never imagined that state going for Bush.

[GrantDawg]

The New England States and Illinios close and the race tightens.

CNN: Bush 66 Kerry 77 (They still haven't called SC?)
CBS: Bush 80 Kerry 77

[GrantDawg]

CBS has been the most aggressive of all nets so far. They just called NC and Virgina for Bush

CBS: Bush 108 Kerry 77
CNN: Bush 66 Kerry 77
Drudge: Bush 66 Kerry 77
ABC: Bush 66 Kerry 77

[Peregrine]

looking at CNN's county by county thing, looks like Bush is doing pretty well in the critical Florida counties. He may have a good shot to win the state.

[Neuqua]

In a shocker, Obama wins the Senator seat in IL.

:)

[Chubby]

florida is shaded as leaning bush on yahoo.com

[Franklinnoble]

Al Jazeera has just called Fallujah for Kerry...

[gottimd]

CNN said Bush has a 55%-45% lead, but very little have reported in florida.

[Chubby]

56-44 Kerry in Ohio?

[Buccaneer]

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONRESULTS_GRAPHIC/ is probably more accurate at this time. The networks are doing their shit just so they can get viewers watching their ads.

[Bee]

Al Jazeera has just called Fallujah for Kerry...

and Iran for Bush...

[gottimd]

What about the Black Gay Republicans? (http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/forums/showthread.php?t=30745)

[Buccaneer]

Anyone has an exit poll from the dead votes?

[Bee]

Anyone has an exit poll from the dead votes?
I don't know Bucc...who did you vote for?

;)

[Buccaneer]

From CNN

Projections: Kerry to win N.J., Bush strong in South (http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/02/election.main/index.html)


If the Northeast goes all blue as expected, would (should?) the South secede again?

[Bee]

From CNN

Projections: Kerry to win N.J., Bush strong in South (http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/02/election.main/index.html)


If the Northeast goes all blue as expected, would (should?) the South secede again?

That would be cool. Perhaps Northern Virginia could break off like West Virginia did and become it's own state. :D

[Buccaneer]

I don't know Bucc...who did you vote for?

;)
Hey, I'm still breathing in and out. At least my ID and my live presense matched me up to what's on the voter roll. I don't think we can say that in some precincts aournd the country.

[Chubby]

From CNN

Projections: Kerry to win N.J., Bush strong in South (http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/02/election.main/index.html)


If the Northeast goes all blue as expected, would (should?) the South secede again?
I liked the comment on MSNBC that the north and south can't agree so the midwest is going to decide it for us :)

[Ksyrup]

Latest Rather line: Don't taunt the aligator until you have already crossed the creek.
Line from some reporter on Fox News:

I don't think I could say anything more smart than that.

[Ben E Lou]

Latest Rather line: Don't taunt the aligator until you have already crossed the creek.He seems to be channeling the spirit of Ross Perot.

[Buccaneer]

This election season/night has been a fun strategy game, which has been my primary interest in following along.

[GrantDawg]

New states and the updates:

CBS: Bush 162 Kerry 112
CNN: Bush 155 Kerry 112
Drudge/Yahoo: Bush 102 Kerry 77

[Stevedubbya]

Still people standing in line in Ohio. Im thinking that if Ohio goes Kerry, and Wisconsin goes Bush, its a dead heat assuming florida for bush and pennsylvania for kerry.

[BishopMVP]

Based on actual results coming in, it appears Florida was a fair bit off at least in exit polling. Exit polling gave 52/48 Kerry, actual results with 50% in is 53/46 Bush. If this holds up, keep in mind exit polling in Ohio was 52/48 Kerry, WI I think they said 53/46.

[BishopMVP]

Dola...it appears results are coming in from Bunning strongholds and he's now come back to basically a dead heat in the Kentucky Senate race with about 80% in. Hopefully this stops soon so we have 1 less crazy guy in the Senate.

[SirFozzie]

FL is a bit wonky still, the Heavy Dem areas still aren't in I think

[GrantDawg]

FL is a bit wonky still, the Heavy Dem areas still aren't in I think
They are just starting to report, and with every count full percentage points drop of Bush (just like in 2000, where Bush had big leads untill the large Dem counties were reported).

[Buccaneer]

At what point do we start hearing about alleged voting fraud and abuse and bad ballots?

[GrantDawg]

At what point do we start hearing about alleged voting fraud and abuse and bad ballots?
Started this morning.

[Stevedubbya]

At what point do we start hearing about alleged voting fraud and abuse and bad ballots?
I heard about it before i went to work today, as Ohio voting is already shaping up to be extremely shady.

[Buccaneer]

They are just starting to report, and with every count full percentage points drop of Bush (just like in 2000, where Bush had big leads untill the large Dem counties were reported).
Just like in 2000, I don't think we will know tonight.

[cthomer5000]

Pretty interesting so far, but nothing shocking yet. I was also very confident Kerry would easily take New Jersey, and the quick call indicates that it isn't very close.

[Buccaneer]

I heard about it before i went to work today, as Ohio voting is already shaping up to be extremely shady.
That was the state I had predicted that we will have a FL 2000-like controversy.

[GrantDawg]

Just like in 2000, I don't think we will know tonight.
Probably not.

[KWhit]

Just like in 2000, I don't think we will know tonight.
Agreed.

[Stevedubbya]

They are still voting in ohio, almost 2 hours after the polls officially closed. Bush needs to be showing strong support in "White-hio" to counteract the fact that "Black-hio" is strongly for Kerry.

[Buccaneer]

It is shaping up to be 4 years of gridlock and indecisions and a whole shitload of punditry.

Far out!

[Buccaneer]

They are still voting in ohio, almost 2 hours after the polls officially closed.
Is that legal?

[GrantDawg]

Is that legal?
Courts are keeping them open because problems with polls kept them from finishing on time. They must allow everyone to vote that showed up on time to vote.

[Chubby]

Is that legal?
when they've been waiting in line for 5 hours, yes.

[Stevedubbya]

when they've been waiting in line for 5 hours, yes.

I smell the scent of 10000 democrat lawyers closing into the Ohio area.

[Buccaneer]

Don't tell me, computer glitches, right? Anything wrong with a ballot card and a marker? Bet they would have been home right now.

[GrantDawg]

I smell the scent of 10000 democrat lawyers closing into the Ohio area.
Shoot, the Republican and Democratic lawyers are already there. They have been filing crap all day.

[GrantDawg]

Don't tell me, computer glitches, right? Anything wrong with a ballot card and a marker? Bet they would have been home right now.
I agree with you completely. We did the scan-tron type sheets in Alabama. People would still goof them, but not as much as the computer screen (not to mention it is easy to have a recount if the machines goof).

[Stevedubbya]

Don't tell me, computer glitches, right? Anything wrong with a ballot card and a marker? Bet they would have been home right now.

Some of the problem seems to stem from the fact that they wanted to allow paper ballots as well, but they disallowed that.

[-Mojo Jojo-]

Shoot, the legal monkeys are already there. They have been flinging crap all day.
.

[Daimyo]

I don't think it has to do with computer clitches. Computers or no, if you're in line when the polls close you get to vote no matter how long it takes to get through everyone.

[Ben E Lou]

Well, now I can say that my picture has been on the fridge in the home of a US Senator.

[TargetPractice6]

Not looking good for Kerry. Even though it's fairly early in msot states he's trailing in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

[cthomer5000]

Is there a reasonable scenario for Kerry winning if he loses both Ohio and Florida?

[Stevedubbya]

Not looking good for Kerry. Even though it's fairly early in msot states he's trailing in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

I think that its way too early to be making judgements about Mich, Wis, or Minnesota, but loses in any of the gore states are bad news.

[Ksyrup]

Now they're talking about not counting the absentee ballots in Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade until Thursday.

How do you have what happened in 2000, and then not be prepared to count these ballots as quickly as possible? This is like 200K+ votes!

[RendeR]

Yes, he simply has to win almost every other state. Remember California is Kerry's, so that makes things as they stand right now almost dead even, all these middle ground stats are going to make things very interesting.....

[JeffNights]

Its really really early to say anything about michigan..


Detroit reports late, and trust me, there is not much love for Bush in the metro detroit area....

I work in detroit myself, since our shift started a 11 today, most of voted in the morning and we had our own lil mini-election at work.

Kerry-57
Bush-4
Nader-3

go figure eh?

P.S. the demographics break down something like 70 percent of the employess are african american, 20 percetn white, and i'd say ten percent hispanic.

[Bee]

Now they're talking about not counting the absentee ballots in Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade until Thursday.

How do you have what happened in 2000, and then not be prepared to count these ballots as quickly as possible? This is like 200K+ votes!

That blows my mind too. I also was hearing some provisional ballots in Ohio wouldn't be counted until Friday.

[Coffee Warlord]

CNN just gave Dubya Missouri and Arkansas (no surprise in AK). They're currently at 193-112.

[cthomer5000]

"My baby dady...Barack Obama!"

[Buccaneer]

That blows my mind too. I also was hearing some provisional ballots in Ohio wouldn't be counted until Friday.
Why does that blow your mind? That has always been the case (counting those ballots in the days and weeks following election day). In that case of one state in 2000, it made those critical but you still have to allow time to count them right. No need to rush or to do a half-ass job like what some FL counties did.

[Ksyrup]

In 2000, even with all of the issues, they counted the absentee ballots the night of the election in South Florida. It was the chad issue, among others, that caused the problems.

[cthomer5000]

It's mind blowing because if there was ever a time for Florida to go above and beyond the call of duty, now was that time. I assume they have some explanation, but it comes off as if they've learned nothing.

[Buccaneer]

From the yahoo article about youth voting

"It's definitely the war," said Eliana Deutsch, 20, of San Diego, explaining why she came out. "People see these soldiers who are 18 and don't have an education, and they're over there dying. It's really sad that that (the military) is their best option."
I'm sure there are some here that would be highly offended at this statement. Something about this statement that doesn't sound right.

[kingfc22]

Bush up 52-47 Ohio.

[Coffee Warlord]

It's mind blowing because if there was ever a time for Florida to go above and beyond the call of duty, now was that time. I assume they have some explanation, but it comes off as if they've learned nothing.

It's further mind-blowing considering who the Governor is. Jeb ain't getting invited to Thanksgiving dinner with the family if he lets his brother lose his state.

[Buccaneer]

In 2000, even with all of the issues, they counted the absentee ballots the night of the election in South Florida. It was the chad issue, among others, that caused the problems.
I don't think you are recalling correctly. There was the issue of the overseas military ballots as well.

[Chubby]

Bush up 52-47 Ohio.
keep in mind that there are STILL people waiting in line to vote too :(

[Buccaneer]

It's further mind-blowing considering who the Governor is. Jeb ain't getting invited to Thanksgiving dinner with the family if he lets his brother lose his state.
The last time I checked, a governor still only has one vote.

[Ksyrup]

It's mind blowing because if there was ever a time for Florida to go above and beyond the call of duty, now was that time. I assume they have some explanation, but it comes off as if they've learned nothing.
The Supervisor of Elections in Palm Beach, the lady who invented the butterfly ballot and was a Democrat until after the 2000 fiasco, is handling her final election. She was forced to turn Independent after the Democratic Party did everything in their power to defeat her this year. She is so hated in Palm Beach County that the Dems put up a guy whose name is identical to the accounting firm linked to Enron, and he beat her handily. That's right - she lost to Arthur Andersen!

[cthomer5000]

I don't think you are recalling correctly. There was the issue of the overseas military ballots as well.
While that is true, were talking about two different types of ballots. Florida is simply not counting standard absentee ballots tonight.

I think it has to be considered ridiculous given the events of 2000.

[Ksyrup]

I don't think you are recalling correctly. There was the issue of the overseas military ballots as well.
Those always come in late. Someone on either Fox or CNN just discussed this issue, and said all of the absentee ballots were counted that night - as opposed to the 4,000 or so military overseas ballots that came in within the next few days.

[Coffee Warlord]

The last time I checked, a governor still only has one vote.

You think he wasn't doing everything he possibly could down there to keep Dubya in office?

Shit, if I was governor of a state, and my brother was in the presidential election, I'd be plastering Vote For My Bro signs onto everything I could.

[Ksyrup]

The amazing thing about tonight is that, despite how close everything looks, we haven't had one thing actually change from last year yet - just the timing of calling certain states is the only difference. This could still end up being a 300 EV night for one of the candidates (more than likely Kerry is either one was to reaach that number).

[Buccaneer]

The state's election supervisor, Constance Kaplan, was told by officials in Miami-Dade County that the crush of balloting on Tuesday will put off a tally of mail-in votes until as late as Thursday.
...
Twenty-one touch-screen voting machines in Broward County were replaced because of technical problems, said Gisela Salas, the county's deputy supervisor of elections. At least one of the machines had shown votes cast for the wrong candidates.
Sounds like a manpower issue, esp. for a financially strapped county as M-D.

Touch-screen voting machines. Sigh. Typical govt response is to throw money at a "solution" that ends up not being any better. Don't election officials go to national conventions and learn how other states/counties are handling voting much more effective and cheaper?

[Ksyrup]

You think he wasn't doing everything he possibly could down there to keep Dubya in office?

Shit, if I was governor of a state, and my brother was in the presidential election, I'd be plastering Vote For My Bro signs onto everything I could.
Given the 2000 election fiasco, Jeb has taken a secondary role in the Florida campaign. They brought in a co-chair, and he didn't do too much campaigning. He was in just one commercial that I saw and really wasn't on TV too much, either. In fact, I'd say he's been close to invisible. I think the thought is that he can help Dubya by concentrating on getting people back on their feet from the hurricane, rather than taking a partisan role in trying to get his brother elected.

[Buccaneer]

You think he wasn't doing everything he possibly could down there to keep Dubya in office?

Shit, if I was governor of a state, and my brother was in the presidential election, I'd be plastering Vote For My Bro signs onto everything I could.
Hearing from my in-laws, everyone had signs plastered everywhere. Remember in this era of central power, national political machines trump state political machines.

[cthomer5000]

Bucc, computers are not the enemy. Many states use electronic polling and have flawless procedures (New Jersey is one example).

[JAG]

Bush up 52-47 Ohio.

BTW, these numbers don't tell enough of the story to me. For example, just a second ago I looked at the list of counties and their percent having reported. While a number of rural counties with 15-20k people have been 100% reported (and mostly in favor of Bush predictably), Cleveland's county, where Kerry is leading Bush 60-40 percent, only had 17% reported.

[Buccaneer]

Bucc, computers are not the enemy. Many states use electronic polling and have flawless procedures (New Jersey is one example).
NJ is not a battleground state so we don't hear of any problems because it wouldn't matter. Just like usual practice (pre-2000) of not even counting overseas and absentee ballots in various counties because they would not affect the outcome at all.

[gottimd]

cnn says kerry has PA

[Chubby]

PA finally given to Kerry

[cthomer5000]

NJ is not a battleground state so we don't hear of any problems because it wouldn't matter. Just like usual practice (pre-2000) of not even counting overseas and absentee ballots in various counties because they would not affect the outcome at all.
This wasn't my main point though. You just seem to think that anything beyond marker and a paper ballot is silly.

[GoldenEagle]

Fox still has not called PA - but looks good for Kerry. If Bush takes Florida and Ohio, this thing is over. Kerry would have to pull of Colorado and New Mexico as well get some help elsewhere. Bush could get as many as 316 votes.

[GoldenEagle]

And right as I post that Fox calls PA for Kerry.

[Rich1033]

Still people standing in line in Ohio.
One place in Lucas county(toledo area) said that they were out of ballots, only to later find that they were just misplaced. They found them an hour or 2 before the 7:30 deadline.

I should add that these are not the punch ballots, we use scantron like sheets that you just fill out with a pencil.

[The Shadow]

Florida looks to be Bush. Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach (Dem counties) are at least 70-90% counted and Bush is up by more than 300,000 in the state.

[Ksyrup]

I don't think Florida or Ohio is going to be called tonight.

[Bee]

I'd be surprised at this point if Florida doesn't go to Bush. That leaves Ohio as the key battleground right now and it looks like it could go either way (Bush is leading right now, but some of the heavy democratic urban areas with lots of votes haven't reported). With all the challenges and everything we've seen in Ohio, this could be even uglier than 2000.

[Chubby]

I'd be surprised at this point if Florida doesn't go to Bush. That leaves Ohio as the key battleground right now and it looks like it could go either way (Bush is leading right now, but some of the heavy democratic urban areas with lots of votes haven't reported). With all the challenges and everything we've seen in Ohio, this could be even uglier than 2000.
agreed.

Hell, if everything falls the same as 2000 (with Ohio and Florida going Bush) EXCEPT New Hampshire then Kerry would still win...

[Ksyrup]

Here's the thing with Florida, though. Right now, Bush leads by 300K. The remaining precincts, I believe, are South Florida, so you have to expect that 300K lead to dwindle a bit. And I've heard on TV (and these numbers are from the TV so I don't know how accurate they are) that there are upwards of 250K absentee ballots that may not be counted until Thursday. This likely won't be down to a 537 vote difference, but I think it may sufficiently call the result in question and keep it from being called tonight.

[BishopMVP]

Oh god, ACLU filed a lawsuit in Broward and Palm Beach counties based on absentee ballots.

Also, Bush is up ~300,000 with roughly 1 million votes left by my off-hand calculations.

[BishopMVP]

agreed.

Hell, if everything falls the same as 2000 (with Ohio and Florida going Bush) EXCEPT New Hampshire then Kerry would still win...I think re-districting gave the red states from 2000 a couple more and enough to negate NH switching sides changing the outcome alone.

[Coffee Warlord]

CNN gives Bush the all important Idaho vote. :)

[MrBug708]

Dont forget Montana now

Arent Absentee ballots generally more republican votes than dems?

[Chubby]

nevada is leaning Kerry now... basically it's all going to come down to Ohio (I think Fla is safely Bush's)

[Solecismic]

Well, I was wrong about a couple of states.

Seems safe to call Florida. Bush is doing better than he did in 2000 in nearly every county.

Ohio is neck and neck, but Bush does hold an edge. Kerry's doing a tad better than Gore did, but not enough to make up the 2% Bush won in 2000. Of course, there's much less data to work with there than in Florida.

Not looking like the rout I expected at all. It's all about Ohio.

I'll start looking into Wisconsin later. I'm going to take another pass through Ohio.

[henry296]

I think re-districting gave the red states from 2000 a couple more and enough to negate NH switching sides changing the outcome alone.

It wasn't really re-districting but a reallocation of the # of house seats for each state. Great chart by Tim Russert, if the states go exactly the same way as 2000, Bush would get 278 to 260 for Kerry.

It is all about Ohio.

Todd

[Buccaneer]

Well, I was wrong about a couple of states.

Seems safe to call Florida. Bush is doing better than he did in 2000 in nearly every county.

Ohio is neck and neck, but Bush does hold an edge. Kerry's doing a tad better than Gore did, but not enough to make up the 2% Bush won in 2000. Of course, there's much less data to work with there than in Florida.

Not looking like the rout I expected at all. It's all about Ohio.

I'll start looking into Wisconsin later. I'm going to take another pass through Ohio.
Is that how you predicted a Kerry rout?

[Coffee Warlord]

I heard through the grapevine (guy I know who lives up there) Wisconsin has Kerry up.

[Chubby]

and yahoo frontpage craps out...

[Draft Dodger]

I've got a baaad feeling about this...

[gottimd]

I've got a baaad feeling about this...

Did you pick the wrong week to stop sniffing glue like me?http://www.americanphoto.co.jp/pages/eiga/HU/Previews/Plans-38527.jpg

[Chubby]

yahoo/ap just flipped wisconsin to leaning kerry...

[cthomer5000]

just not looking good for Kerry. He's doomed without ohio.

[MrBug708]

CBS just gave Florida away to Bush

[Solecismic]

Bucc, I had the big 4 - Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa - all for Kerry (and New Mexico, which isn't looking like a good bet, either).

Ohio is difficult. The early returns in Cincinnati show the kind of dramatic shift Kerry needed. But he isn't getting that everywhere - just getting enough in Canton, Columbus, Toledo, somewhat in Cleveland. The rest of the state is staying near where it was in 2000.

The networks are being awfully wimpy not calling Florida. But they're hinting as much.

I'm hoping to work on Wisconsin in the next hour.

[Buccaneer]

CBS just gave Florida away to Bush
Now why would they do that? Is Rather/CBS getting that desperate?

[Ksyrup]

Apparently Cleveland's precincts have all reported, so Kerry's got all the bounce he's going to get from that part. I have to admit, I'm surprised. I voted for Bush,but really thought he'd lose, maybe not by the margin some thought, though. you just never know.

[Draft Dodger]

just not looking good for Kerry. He's doomed without ohio.

giving Fla, Ohio, Arizona, Montana and Colorado to Bush give W 266 (by my math). Nevada's 5 would push him over the top.

assuming Kerry pulls out Wisonsin, he's still got to win either Ohio, Nevada, or Colorado, and none of them seem very likely right now.

[Chubby]

giving Fla, Ohio, Arizona, Montana and Colorado to Bush give W 266 (by my math). Nevada's 5 would push him over the top.

assuming Kerry pulls out Wisonsin, he's still got to win either Ohio, Nevada, or Colorado, and none of them seem very likely right now.
Kerry is +3 in nevada right now

[Chubby]

yahoo gives fla to bush

[Dutch]

FoxNews was reporting that Cleveland hadn't reported at all yet and that they expect Kerry to make up the 130k votes quite easily.

So I still have Bush on the outside looking for a miracle.

[RendeR]

C'mon Cincy, boost that kerry count.

Its pathetic that I have to root for such a putz, but a democratic putz is safer than a republican religious state.

[CraigSca]

FoxNews was reporting that Cleveland hadn't reported at all yet and that they expect Kerry to make up the 130k votes quite easily.

So I still have Bush on the outside looking for a miracle.


Cleveland is Cuyahoga county - according to CNN - 52% of the precinct has reported with Kerry ahead by almost 100k - I guess you can double that, so Kerry stands to make up another 100k in votes.

[Cringer]

ok, i think Badnarik is gonna lose....maybe the winner between him and Nader could be VP. Since they are kind of like the Division 1-AA of national politics and have nochance of beating the big boys.....

[Buccaneer]

I find it somewhat amusing that Nader is getting so very few votes. The Party Machines really did a number on him, huh?

[Buccaneer]

FoxNews was reporting that Cleveland hadn't reported at all yet and that they expect Kerry to make up the 130k votes quite easily.

So I still have Bush on the outside looking for a miracle.
I agree. I'm looking forward to 2008.

[GoldenEagle]

Looking real good for Bush.

[CraigSca]

According to my non-scientific calcs - Bush wins Florida, Ohio, Colorado and New Mexico and therefore wins the election. Then again...I'm a mere voter in Delaware, what do I know?

[Cringer]

I find it somewhat amusing that Nader is getting so very few votes. The Party Machines really did a number on him, huh?

He was kept off the ballot in several states because the Democrats fought in the courts to keep him off, like in Texas. My wife had to write him in, and that was a pain because no one who was running the polling location we go to knew how to do a write in vote, guess she was the first of the day....
:rolleyes:

Also, like some guy on CNN said earlier, 3rd party guys (even though he is Independent this time) usually drop the next time around after having any kind of push in an election, like Perot....

[Dutch]

I agree. I'm looking forward to 2008.

If Kerry wins, I admit I am looking forward to being scratched from my next rotation in the desert in favor of French, German, and Russian troop support. :D

[Ksyrup]

I agree. I'm looking forward to 2008.
Regardless of whether Bush wins, I'm looking forward to 2008. :)

On a personal note, winning Florida by such a (relatively) comfortable margin is good for my firm.

[JeffNights]

Look at Ohio more closely, Cuyhoga(sp) county has only reported half and kerry is slaughtering bush there....

also, paying attention to michigan, wayne county(detroit really) has half precints and kerry is really hammering bush there, 75% to 23%. and thats with still more to come.

I think we'll end up again with the W losing the popular vote.

but as for that blasted electoral...grrrr

[JeffNights]

according to ap county by county precint counts in ohio...in ten minutes since i last checked.. kerry just gained on bush by 50,000 votes. down by 20 now.

I still think Ohio will go blue.

[Ksyrup]

Dems said to be "increasingly pessimistic" about Ohio, according to a reporter in Boston on Fox.

[Dutch]

I have to agree. (EDIT: With Jeff Night)

[easymacfu]

Begala and Carville basically conceded the election 25 minutes ago on CNN.

[TroyF]

Dems said to be "increasingly pessimistic" about Ohio, according to a reporter in Boston on Fox.


The scary part to me was what else the reporter said. Something along the lines of the dems were getting increasingly pessimistic about Ohio and that they feel the election will be settled on the court house steps tomorrow morning.

Good lord. . . If you lose, you freakin lose.

Tonight doesn't surprise me in the least. I felt all along that Bush had more momentum than people thought and that Kerry's horrific campaign strategy was keeping things too close.

He may eek out Ohio and still get this election, but it's looking pretty grim for him.

With Bush up in Ohio and New Mexico. . . Kerry is looking like he's in trouble.

[kingfc22]

Begala and Carville basically conceded the election 25 minutes ago on CNN.
Let me preface this by saying that I don't believe by any stretch that it is over already, but I would have loved to see the look on Carville's face when he talked about this.

[kingfc22]

Good lord. . . If you lose, you freakin lose.
My thoughts exactly, no matter which side you are on.

[Coffee Warlord]

Sometime, many many years in the future, we will break this god damned 2 party system.

And then I will be happy.

[Dutch]

There are about 5,000 laywers in Florida scrambling to get on flights to Cleveland that disagree with that philosophy. :)

[TroyF]

My thoughts exactly, no matter which side you are on.

Couldn't agree more with this. Don't get me wrong, those of you who support Kerry. I know Bush would do the same thing and I would be just as pissed when he did it.

Bush holds on in Ohio, this thing is over.

[Solecismic]

Wisconsin is still early, but what I see is a tiny shift for Kerry over 2000 - on the order of 0.1% - 0.2%. So I'm expecting that to stay in the Kerry column.

[vex]

Bush gets Montana.

[Cringer]

Sometime, many many years in the future, we will break this god damned 2 party system.

And then I will be happy.

word to your mother!

[Ksyrup]

The deal with ohio is that there are somewhere around 200K provisional ballots, and if the numbers stay like they are, or obviously if they get close, the provisionals will have to be reviewed and then, if allowed, counted. Bush is behind in the other states that would give him an alternate path to victory, so it may come down to Ohio, and only Ohio, deciding the election.

[easymacfu]

Let me preface this by saying that I don't believe by any stretch that it is over already, but I would have loved to see the look on Carville's face when he talked about this.

He didn't seem too upset. He basically said that he agreed the Dems needed a good ass whooping to rethink things.

That being said, looking at the numbers in Ohio, I don't see how Kerry makes up anything, there are a few counties with not too many precints reporting where Bus his waxing him.

COUNTY STATUS CANDIDATE COUNTY VOTE VOTE % PRECINCTS
Adams
Updated: 12:25 a.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
7,480 64% 100% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
4,189 36%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
35 0%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
31 0%
Allen
Updated: 10:19 p.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
31,629 67% 100% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
15,822 33%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
130 0%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
62 0%
Ashland
Updated: 11:09 p.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
8,821 64% 40% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
4,738 35%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
73 1%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
41 0%
Ashtabula
Updated: 11:01 p.m. ET

Democratic Kerry
23,545 53% 100% of precincts reporting

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
20,621 47%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
158 0%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
141 0%
Athens
Updated: 11:35 p.m. ET

Democratic Kerry
11,394 64% 71% of precincts reporting

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
6,238 35%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
64 1%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
62 0%

COUNTY STATUS CANDIDATE COUNTY VOTE VOTE % PRECINCTS
Auglaize
Updated: 11:54 p.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
14,278 74% 100% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
4,917 26%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
56 0%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
44 0%
Belmont
Updated: 12:10 a.m. ET

Democratic Kerry
12,226 53% 72% of precincts reporting

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
10,828 47%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
60 0%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
48 0%
Brown
Updated: 11:55 p.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
12,480 64% 100% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
7,058 36%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
52 0%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
51 0%
Butler
Updated: 12:17 a.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
106,735 66% 100% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
54,185 34%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
396 0%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
274 0%
Carroll
Updated: 10:35 p.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
7,531 54% 100% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
6,190 45%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
75 1%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
58 0%

COUNTY STATUS CANDIDATE COUNTY VOTE VOTE % PRECINCTS
Champaign
Updated: 11:22 p.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
11,432 63% 100% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
6,752 37%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
43 0%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
41 0%
Clark
Updated: 12:00 a.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
33,389 52% 97% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
31,228 48%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
181 0%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
138 0%
Clermont
Updated: 11:03 p.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
20,490 71% 27% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
8,535 29%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
49 0%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
34 0%
Clinton
Updated: 9:50 p.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
5,664 69% 63% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
2,583 31%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
16 0%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
9 0%
Columbiana
Updated: 11:24 p.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
25,212 52% 100% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
22,884 48%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
148 0%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
126 0%

COUNTY STATUS CANDIDATE COUNTY VOTE VOTE % PRECINCTS
Coshocton
Updated: 10:37 p.m. ET

Democratic Kerry
2,172 51% 28% of precincts reporting

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
2,056 49%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
11 0%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
8 0%
Crawford
Updated: 11:50 p.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
13,667 64% 100% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
7,626 36%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
72 0%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
68 0%
Cuyahoga
Updated: 12:03 a.m. ET

Democratic Kerry
282,406 63% 67% of precincts reporting

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
163,732 37%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
1,160 0%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
1,113 0%
Darke
Updated: 11:42 p.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
17,869 70% 100% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
7,663 30%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
79 0%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
76 0%
Defiance
Updated: 10:02 p.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
2,344 60% 24% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
1,537 40%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
13 0%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
5 0%

COUNTY STATUS CANDIDATE COUNTY VOTE VOTE % PRECINCTS
Delaware
Updated: 12:24 a.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
47,882 66% 94% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
24,639 34%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
152 0%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
80 0%
Erie
Updated: 11:58 p.m. ET

Democratic Kerry
20,652 53% 100% of precincts reporting

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
18,019 47%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
48 0%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
17 0%
Fairfield
Updated: 11:49 p.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
34,212 62% 81% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
19,640 36%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
708 1%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
523 1%
Fayette
Updated: 10:31 p.m. ET

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
7,221 63% 100% of precincts reporting

Democratic Kerry
4,244 37%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
28 0%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
18 0%
Franklin
Updated: 11:35 p.m. ET

Democratic Kerry
244,527 53% 91% of precincts reporting

Republican Bush
(Incumbent)
215,259 47%

Non-Partisan Badnarik
1,406 0%

Non-Partisan Peroutka
991 0%

[GoldenEagle]

The popular vote is real close but early returns in California show it is alot closer than many expected. I think Bush will take the popular vote.

[Chubby]

Bush has to take Ohio AND New Mexico (both currently leaning his way) to win.

[Chubby]

The deal with ohio is that there are somewhere around 200K provisional ballots, and if the numbers stay like they are, or obviously if they get close, the provisionals will have to be reviewed and then, if allowed, counted. Bush is behind in the other states that would give him an alternate path to victory, so it may come down to Ohio, and only Ohio, deciding the election.
Exactly, I couldn't remember how many provisionals they said were handed out or if they were included in current totals or not...

[CraigSca]

I'm a Bush suppoprter, but my worst case scenario is, no matter who wins, a long drawn out court battle. No matter who wins, I hope the other bows out and says the best man won - for the country's sake.

[GoldenEagle]

Bush has to take Ohio AND New Mexico (both currently leaning his way) to win.
Bush should take Nevada. I do no think he will lose there.I aslo think he will take New Mexico. However, it looks like Ohio will decide the election. Last count I heard there was 800,000 uncounted for in Ohio with Bush holding +180,000.

[RendeR]

I'm a Bush suppoprter, but my worst case scenario is, no matter who wins, a long drawn out court battle. No matter who wins, I hope the other bows out and says the best man won - for the country's sake.


*cackles* you put the words "best man" and "wins" in the same sentence......



*CACKLES*


Sorry, but the very idea that either of these two nether-regions of a diseased yak is the best man for anything is hilarious.


I apologize for this interruption of our national corruption, we now return you to your regular 4 year frustration....

[Chubby]

Bush should take Nevada. I do no think he will lose there.I aslo think he will take New Mexico. However, it looks like Ohio will decide the election. Last count I heard there was 800,000 uncounted for in Ohio with Bush holding +180,000.
well currently bush is down in nevada and up in new mexico.

there's also the provisional ballots in ohio too...

[GoldenEagle]

Fox news just called Ohio for Bush!

[easymacfu]

If Ohio's number stay similar to they are now through the night and Bush's percent hold true through all the precincts, even with 200K provisional ballots Kerry would need around 130-150K of those, or over 65% to have a chance. There are still precincts open where Bush has a good lead, that overall almost cancel any gains Kerry will make through the night.

Kerry gets Oregon.

CNN has it 246-195 for Bush. 97 votes left.

[CraigSca]

*cackles* you put the words "best man" and "wins" in the same sentence......



*CACKLES*


Sorry, but the very idea that either of these two nether-regions of a diseased yak is the best man for anything is hilarious.


I apologize for this interruption of our national corruption, we now return you to your regular 4 year frustration....

EVERYTHING is relative, Render. :D

[GoldenEagle]

He is down by 5,000 in Nevada, the slimest of margins. If Fox News is right, this thing is all but over.

[Chubby]

Fox news just called Ohio for Bush!
would you expect anything different? if it gets called by anyone else than maybe.

[TroyF]

Bush has to take Ohio AND New Mexico (both currently leaning his way) to win.


No, he doesn't. He takes Ohio and Alaska, he gets to 269. That's a tie, that's decided by the House. The Republicans hold the house.

Fox News just called Ohio.

Provisional ballots and court cases aside, this election is now over.

[Chubby]

No, he doesn't. He takes Ohio and Alaska, he gets to 269. That's a tie, that's decided by the House. The Republicans hold the house.

Fox News just called Ohio.

Provisional ballots and court cases aside, this election is now over.
again, when someone else calls ohio then it's over.

[Ksyrup]

I have a feeling the Dems will not let Ohio go so easily.

Funny, because Fox News has actually been pretty cautious is calling states until the last hour or so. Now they've decided to scoop everyone and essentially give Bush the election.

[kingfc22]

I can't believe that Fox was the first to call Ohio because they were the last to call Florida. CBS has been the network that has called everything early and I doubt they'd call Ohio anytime tonight since Rather is an obviously anti-Bush.

[Dutch]

Yeah, FoxNews was the only station that was sticking to the agreement of letting the AP call the states until now. Because this is the big one. If it's true and the lawyers in fact have run out of free cigarettes to give to returning voters in Cleveland....then Bush has basically won!

[easymacfu]

My guess is Kerry gains 15-20K in Ohio by the time the normal counting is done tonight.

[kingfc22]

dola

Ksyrup beat me to it.

[Chubby]

MSNBC is saying both parties are saying it's going to be razor thin close

[TroyF]

I have a feeling the Dems will not let Ohio go so easily.

Funny, because Fox News has actually been pretty cautious is calling states until the last hour or so. Now they've decided to scoop everyone and essentially give Bush the election.


They won't, but even if they have 200,000 provisional ballots undecided, they'd have to assume Kerry would take 135,000+ of those. Possible, sure, but it's not likely.

It looks like Bush is going to get Ohio, New Mexico and Alaska.

Still haven't got 100% of Ohio in, but it's looking like it's going to be difficult to get this.

[Chubby]

They won't, but even if they have 200,000 provisional ballots undecided, they'd have to assume Kerry would take 135,000+ of those. Possible, sure, but it's not likely.

It looks like Bush is going to get Ohio, New Mexico and Alaska.

Still haven't got 100% of Ohio in, but it's looking like it's going to be difficult to get this.
Alaska is Bush's no problem.


Remember that the provisionals are from where all the lines are, in the heavy dem areas (cleveland) as far as I know. He's pulling near 2/3 in the county...

[CraigSca]

90% of Cuyahoga in, Bush still up by 100K

[easymacfu]

Over says Brokaw

[CraigSca]

CNN roundtable pretty much giving it to Bush at this point...

[kingfc22]

NBC just gave Ohio. It's OVA!!!

[Chubby]

90% of Cuyahoga in, Bush still up by 100K
so say it stays at 100k (even tho it has been going down)

with 200k he only needs 50.000001% of the provisionals to take the state.



Ohio has been given to Bush by MSNBC so it's time to go to sleep but with the numbers continually dropping who knows...

[VPI97]

Done and done

[GoldenEagle]

CNN calls AK for Bush.

[easymacfu]

Bush gets Alaska... Kerry needs a sweep. And that split vote in Maine or something. Come on Bush/Edwards ticket.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

FOX NEWS:

BUSH 269
KERRY 211

God is Great God Is Great.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

Dola: Bush Edwards ? Dear God what would the campaign slogan be.

[Dutch]

Somewhere Hillary Clinton is smiling.

[easymacfu]

We have 20 year old daughters?

[SirFozzie]

Congrats to Bush. He's not the guy I backed, but I offer him the same prayer I would offer Kerry.

"After a time of great division, may you have the wisdom and greatness of spirit to bring our nation together and to preside honestly, ably, and to the best of your ability."

[TroyF]

so say it stays at 100k (even tho it has been going down)

with 200k he only needs 50.000001% of the provisionals to take the state.



Ohio has been given to Bush by MSNBC so it's time to go to sleep but with the numbers continually dropping who knows...


Here is the problem Chubby. . .

There might be 200k provisional ballots, but that doesn't mean they all get counted. They have to all be looked at and looked over. What's more, is the margain is about 120,000 with 89% in. If that doesn't close, that means Kerry needs 60+% of them to get the win.

It's bleak. No other way to look at it.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

Now Let's get on to healing a nation divided.

[Ksyrup]

Dola: Bush Edwards ? Dear God what would the campaign slogan be.No chance. In addition to Bush winning, the Reps have taken a number of Senate seats and would have control over both the House (who would pick President) and Senate (who would pick VP). If it's a tie, it's still over.

[CraigSca]

Bush has now taken the lead in Iowa, with 89% of the precincts reporting...

[sterlingice]

Now Let's get on to healing a nation divided.
That worked so well 4 years ago...

SI

[sovereignstar]

Now Let's get on to healing a nation divided.
It's a darn shame. We could have started healing a divided world as well.

[MrBug708]

Does this mean George won't be baseball Commish?

[kingfc22]

It's a darn shame. We could have started healing a divided world as well.
*chuckles*:rolleyes:

[Dutch]

France, Germany, and Russia just breathed a sigh of relief. ("Whew, looks like we don't have to get off our asses after all!")

Trust me, they are very content with the result. They get to keep bashing America and they get to leave America to do the dirty work of fighting the bad guys by ourselves.

[kingfc22]

Boy if New Mexico stays as it is right now and Bush wins it. Gov. Richardson should get a pie in the face. He came on Fox earlier and all but guaranteed that NM would go to Kerry. Oops.

[easymacfu]

France, Germany, and Russia just breathed a sigh of relief. ("Whew, looks like we don't have to get off our asses after all!")

Trust me, they are very content with the result. They get to keep bashing America and they get to leave America to do the dirty work of fighting the bad guys by ourselves.
We're fighting Bin Laden? Thats right, we quit that for a war people could see.

Its funny, but if Bush stayed on task, there would have been no doubt that he cruises this election. Whever told him Iraq was a good idea deserves to be fired.

[Dutch]

I know what you are saying, but if we spent 3 years searching the mountains of Afghanistan for Bin Laden (who could very well be in Bangladesh for all we know) and we let Saddam Hussein keep the status quo, I can promise you Kerry would have had an argument for that too.

I'm sure you can agree that Kerry has to be disagreeable with any choice Bush made.

[Ksyrup]

It's deja vu all over again...Kery campaign disputes Ohio call.

Now, I just saw the Ohio Elections Supervisor say that his best estimate is that there are 150K provisionals. Combined with what's left of the regular votes, I'm fine with waiting until 100% report, but I don't see Kerry coming up with what they need to overcome the lead.