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lytic
12-05-2004, 06:00 PM
Ok, so a friend/coworker (who I finally got addicted to Hattrick) and I have wondered for some time if the match report statement of an injury to a player has any correlation to the severity of said injury. You have guys leaving from rough play, getting kicked, or even being carted off on stretchers, but are the statements telling you how long to expect your guy to be out or are they just random? We wondered.......

I took it upon myself yesterday to look at Wednesday's cup matches played in the USA, Canada, Mexico, Sweden (boy did that take some time), and Chile. Throw in a few friendlies for good measure, and I found 9 injury statements and 124 injuries. One guy in Sweden actually had 3 players injured in a cup loss, boy that's gotta hurt.

Here's what I've found so far, in order of average injury length (best to worst):

limped off the field and was replaced
Average injury length for this statement is 1.22 weeks. However, this only accounts for 7.26% of the injuries. No injuries over 2 weeks yet.

had to leave the pitch due to a knee injury
Average injury length for this statement is 1.46 weeks. By far the most common injury, with 28.23% of the 124 surveyed. Only 3 injuries were over 2 weeks in duration, with the max injury being only 3 weeks. Vast majority of injuries were listed as 1, but the players were already bruised and playing/training.

left the field because of a nasty blow to the shin
Average injury length for this statemtent is 1.71 weeks. 11.29% of the injuries used this statement. Majority of injuries were only 2 weeks, with just one lasting 3 weeks.

These first 3 statements accounted for almost half of all the injuries found.

couldn´t continue playing due to the rough treatment
Things start picking up as this statement averages 2.05 weeks. 16.13% of the injuries used this statement. 3 of the injuries were as high as 4 weeks, but several were 1 week in duration. Kind of a mixed pot.

had to be helped off the pitch, unable to finish the game
9.68% of the injuries used this statement, and last an average of 2.5 weeks. Several 1 weekers are in here, but so are 4-5-6 weekers. This is the first statement yet that involves injuries over 4 weeks.

the unlucky victim, couldn´t continue the game
Seems we're kicking it into high gear now, as this statement averages 3.27 weeks. A couple of one weekers in here, but more and more the injuries are 4 weeks or higher. 6 weeks is the highest.

had to be carried off on a stretcher in agony
This is the one I assumed would be the worst, but I was wrong. This statement is very rare, though, with only 4.03% of the 124 injuries using it. Average injury is 3.40 weeks. However, if this hits you, don't expect a walk in the park. None of the injuries have been less then 3 weeks in duration. None have been more then 4 weeks, either.

will have to do without…..for a time due to a bad foot injury
We're really getting to the statements that will make hopes for the season drop in your gut like a lead weight. While only 6.45% of the injuries, they average 3.88 weeks in duration. The range is 3-6 weeks.

being carried off the pitch and replaced
And here's the worst statement. 4.40 weeks injured on average, with the only 7 weeker in the survey. Again, no injury less then 3 weeks with half being 5 weeks or more. Fortunately this one is rare as well, with only 8.06% of the injuries coming in at this level.

Well, there you have it. I can't account for the age of these guys, the form, or the amount of physios on staff, but still.......I see a trend. At the very least I have an idea of injury severity when a guy goes down during a match. I hate waiting for the bad news.

Thoughts? I've never seen this subject broached in HT land before, so I'm curious.........

Poli
12-05-2004, 06:08 PM
Nifty.

Raven Hawk
12-05-2004, 06:40 PM
This seems fairly accurate with my injury experience. Thanks for posting this. Somebody should put a link to this thread in the sticky. Very interesting information.

lytic
12-05-2004, 06:48 PM
yeah, I wanted to preserve it here... very good info.

Chubby
12-05-2004, 06:57 PM
this doesn't take into account bandaid players getting injured worse does it?

a nice study tho, at least I can plan on my guy only being +1 who went down in the 1st half tonight.

sterlingice
12-05-2004, 10:09 PM
I would have thought the bad foot injury would have been above had to be carried off on a stretcher. Then again, who knows. I'm wondering if there are just 2 classes of injuries and the variance you see is caused by the small sample size (6% of 124 injuries is only 6 or 7 so that's not that big of a sample size).

Either way, it's been formatted and added to the FAQ in the section at the bottom. One of these days I might actually get to that... *sigh*

SI

Mr. Wednesday
12-05-2004, 11:16 PM
Cool, I didn't know lytic lurked at BigSoccer. ;)

(Of course, I should have suggested that Lone Star post a copy of it here too.)

RPI-Fan
12-06-2004, 07:50 AM
lytic, do you have the data entered in a spreadsheet?

I'd be curious to take a look at the sample sizes & stdev's to see just how reliable it is.

saintjo
12-06-2004, 07:59 AM
last night i saw this during my match and thought it was pretty cool. well then one of my players get thes "had to be carried off on a stretcher in agony" injury so read up on it in the study. it says something like its never more or less than 3 weeks. so im thinking i can handle that, it sucks, but its not as bad as the description.
so after the match i check my guy and it's 6 weeks! man, he was way off on that one :)

Lone Star
12-06-2004, 03:20 PM
last night i saw this during my match and thought it was pretty cool. well then one of my players get thes "had to be carried off on a stretcher in agony" injury so read up on it in the study. it says something like its never more or less than 3 weeks. so im thinking i can handle that, it sucks, but its not as bad as the description.
so after the match i check my guy and it's 6 weeks! man, he was way off on that one :)
Sorry about that!

I think tonight I'll grab more matches and see if anything changes noticably. I'll be the first to admit that a sample of 124 injuries is way too small to make for a valid study, and that statement had only come up like 5 times.

As for the previous post asking about band-aids and whatnot, I have no idea if an injured player had one previously or not. I also didn't take down the age or form of any player, I just rushed through the matches as fast as I could go.

Lone Star
12-06-2004, 03:25 PM
Cool, I didn't know lytic lurked at BigSoccer. ;)

(Of course, I should have suggested that Lone Star post a copy of it here too.)
Actually this is my post over on the HT USA Conference (differs just a tad from the BigSoccer one). I thought of posting it here as well, but I didn't want to risk people accusing me of spamming boards with all this tripe.

RPI-Fan -- I've got an Excel spreadsheet with all the raw data in it.

saintjo
12-06-2004, 03:28 PM
Sorry about that!


no, i wasnt writing that as a bash against you. i think you did some great work. it just happened to be off in this case. i found it funny since i was thinking during my whole match "well, 3 weeks isnt so bad. i guess i can live with that", then after that match i see 6 :)

sterlingice
12-06-2004, 03:59 PM
Sorry about that!

I think tonight I'll grab more matches and see if anything changes noticably. I'll be the first to admit that a sample of 124 injuries is way too small to make for a valid study, and that statement had only come up like 5 times.

As for the previous post asking about band-aids and whatnot, I have no idea if an injured player had one previously or not. I also didn't take down the age or form of any player, I just rushed through the matches as fast as I could go.
124 maybe not be good enough for a comprehensive sample of all injuries but it sure is a good start :)

SI

Lone Star
12-06-2004, 06:29 PM
Ok, so I just checked 80 more matches (D1/D2 games in the USA, Ecuador, Switzerland, and Oceania) and here's an update. I found a new statement, but other then that the order of statements remained exactly the same. My spreadsheet has 153 injuries at this point. Statements are listed best to worst:

left the game because of a back injury
This statement is a first for me, and so far has a 1 week average with 1 occurance. Not a valid sample by any means.

limped off the field and was replaced
Average injury of 1.27 weeks. It was 1.22 weeks last time.

had to leave the pitch due to a knee injury
Average injury of 1.53 weeks. It was 1.46 weeks last time.

left the field because of a nasty blow to the shin
Average injury of 1.78 weeks. It was 1.71 weeks last time.

couldn´t continue playing due to the rough treatment
Average injury of 1.96 weeks. It was 2.05 weeks last time.

had to be helped off the pitch, unable to finish the game
Average injury of 2.60 weeks. It was 2.50 weeks last time.

the unlucky victim, couldn´t continue the game
Average injury of 2.87 weeks. It was 3.27 weeks last time.

had to be carried off on a stretcher in agony
Average injury of 3.50 weeks. It was 3.40 weeks last time.

will have to do without…..for a time due to a bad foot injury
Average injury of 3.78 weeks. It was 3.88 weeks last time.

being carried off the pitch and replaced
Average injury of 4.36 weeks. It was 4.40 weeks last time.

TazFTW
12-07-2004, 01:46 AM
left the game because of a back injury

I had this injury in my last friendly. The player was a +3.

lytic
12-07-2004, 05:48 PM
I wouldn't blame you for spamming that. It's very useful data... one of the better researched things I've seen in a while. Most of the USA Conference is fluff and pissing matches.

Lone Star
12-13-2004, 07:02 PM
I just looked at the D1 and D2 league matches of 2 random leagues (Ireland and Brazil), and here are the current results:

http://www.geocities.com/gollum1197/HTIDB.html

The data is sorted by average injury length (best to worst).

sterlingice
12-13-2004, 09:19 PM
Thanks for the update :D

SI

hhiipp
12-14-2004, 08:40 AM
My question about your data is:

Are you checking the status of the injuries before their next health update? Just wondering how many of these injuries have already dropped a week before you collect the data. Other than that good stuff.

I had a carried off the pitch on a stretcher the other day for +5 and both of your studies showed the max to be 4 weeks.

Alf
10-12-2005, 08:58 AM
bump : since I needed that for a league mate (had one injury in every game this season so far !)

lytic
10-13-2005, 11:42 PM
almost a year ago... where does the time go?

FrogMan
10-14-2005, 08:11 AM
into taking care of your multiple children and playing pro soccer?

:p

Me, it's taking care of my two childreand and playing FM2005, we all have our limitations I guess :D

FM