Hudson to Atlanta - Rotoworld

[Crapshoot]

ESPNews is reporting that Tim Hudson has been traded to Atlanta for Juan Cruz, Dan Meyer and Charles Thomas. Dec. 16 - 5:10 pm et


Well well- this should be interesting. I think they did pretty damn well- but who on earth is going to play in the OF next to Andrew Jones for the braves ?

[sterlingice]

Wow. Juan Cruz just keeps getting passed around like a... *trails off*

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

Wow. Juan Cruz just keeps getting passed around like a... *trails off*

Averaging 4-5 walks per 9 innings can do that to you.

[Crapshoot]

Juan Cruz was pretty damn good last year- The Braves stole him from the Cubs (shock there). Meyer is a nice prospect, and Thomas can be a decent spare part in Oakland's OF (along with Swisher and Byrnes and Kotsay). Even money says Meyer and/or Cruz ends up going elsewhere though- I think Beane might make a move like that.

[Cuckoo]

This sounds like a great deal for Atlanta. Charles Thomas is that fast OFer, right? Not exactly a star in the making, unless I'm wrong. And we all know about Juan Cruz. Who is Dan Meyer, though, for all you Braves fans? Is he a stud? If he's not a stud prospect, Billy got hosed.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Cuckoo -- Meyer was usually referred to as one of the top two prospects in the organization -- 23 y/o, 6'3 LHP,
6-3 in AA last year, 84 strikeouts/12 walks in 65 innings.
3-3 in AAA last year, 64 K's/26 walks in 66.1 IP

[Crapshoot]

Okay now, I have to take issue with this. The Cubs got one of the Braves' best prospects in that second baseman (Lewis) in this deal, and Chicago didn't need Cruz at all. Lewis projects to be a future starter at second. Sounds like a good deal to me.

meh- fair enough. Lewis looks like he could be good, although he did struggle with AAA at the end of the season. How old is he ?

[Suicane75]

Looks like a solid deal for both sides. That said it seems that the A's will be restocking for a year or 2 as they try and form another strong pitching nucleus.
And I think Cuckoo will take umbrage with the idea that the Braves stole Cruz.

[Cuckoo]

Juan Cruz was pretty damn good last year- The Braves stole him from the Cubs (shock there).

Okay now, I have to take issue with this. The Cubs got one of the Braves' best prospects in that second baseman (Lewis) in this deal, and Chicago didn't need Cruz at all. Lewis projects to be a future starter at second. Sounds like a good deal to me.

[WSUCougar]

Damn

[Cuckoo]

Cuckoo -- Meyer was usually referred to as one of the top two prospects in the organization -- 23 y/o, 6'3 LHP,
6-3 in AA last year, 84 strikeouts/12 walks in 65 innings.
3-3 in AAA last year, 64 K's/26 walks in 66.1 IP

Thanks for the numbers. Old Billy usually has a pretty good eye for young pitchers, so I would have to expect that Meyer's a can't miss guy.

[sterlingice]

Thanks for the numbers. Old Billy usually has a pretty good eye for young pitchers, so I would have to expect that Meyer's a can't miss guy.
TNSTAAPP

SI

[Crapshoot]

Interesting- the Braves traded Marrero for A prospect to the Royals... seriously, is there any OF left other than Andrew Jones ?

[Cuckoo]

meh- fair enough. Lewis looks like he could be good, although he did struggle with AAA at the end of the season. How old is he ?

Looks like he's 24. He was selected to the AA All-star game (.329 with 10 triples and only two errors) then promoted to AAA where he played with an injury and hit only .239. He'll start the season in AAA this year, but the word is that they expect him to compete for the second base job in the next year or two.

Cubs also got Andy Pratt in this deal - hard throwing left-hander who sometimes can't get anywhere close to the plate. If he can find any kind of control, he may be a good one.

[Suicane75]

Interesting- the Braves traded Marrero for A prospect to the Royals... seriously, is there any OF left other than Andrew Jones ?


Is Chipper going back to LF?

[Cuckoo]

TNSTAAPP

SI

Speak English you crazy Kansas Man. I don't understand your secret code. :D

[Crapshoot]

Speak English you crazy Kansas Man. I don't understand your secret code. :D

Its actually TINSTAAPP, - There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect (sabremetric credo of sorts .. :D), and while he has a point- Meyer's has proved it a higher level and is past the 18-21 injurt nexus stage...

[sterlingice]

Speak English you crazy Kansas Man. I don't understand your secret code. :D
It's a Baseball Prospectus term meaning "There's No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect" because it's a lot harder to project out pitchers from both a statistical and scouting perspective than hitters, who you can predict with a moderate amount of success.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2197
"There's no such thing as a pitching prospect" (TNSTAAPP, for short) is actually a shorthand way of expressing the idea that minor-league pitchers are an unpredictable, unreliable subset of baseball players. The concept isn't mine, although I'm probably the most dogmatic BPer on the subject. Gary Huckabay was the first to use the phrase; some Googling turned up credit to him in the late 1990s on rec.sport.baseball."



SI

[Cuckoo]

It's a Baseball Prospectus term meaning "There's No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect" because it's a lot harder to project out pitchers from both a statistical and scouting perspective than hitters, who you can predict with a moderate amount of success.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2197
"There's no such thing as a pitching prospect" (TNSTAAPP, for short) is actually a shorthand way of expressing the idea that minor-league pitchers are an unpredictable, unreliable subset of baseball players. The concept isn't mine, although I'm probably the most dogmatic BPer on the subject. Gary Huckabay was the first to use the phrase; some Googling turned up credit to him in the late 1990s on rec.sport.baseball."



SI

I learn something new every day. :)

[sterlingice]

Interesting- the Braves traded Marrero for A prospect to the Royals... seriously, is there any OF left other than Andrew Jones ?
Where did you see this news? I haven't seen it anywhere. Could you pass along what prospect?

SI

[sterlingice]

I learn something new every day. :)
Seriously, if you want to get much deeper into baseball than any person probably should, read the stories from BP. As a baseball stats geek, they are by far the best place to read about stuff like that. It takes a little to get into what they are saying when they throw around stats like VORP and eqA like they were more "everyday" baseball terms like OBP and ERA but there's a ton to be learned there. I only wish I could afford the premium content so I could get at more than 1 or 2 stories a day.

SI

[DeToxRox]

as a die hard tigers fan, i must also state i have a love for the braves stemming back to meeting john smoltz when i was 4 or 5. his sister worked with my dad, but thats not irrelvant.

anyways, if smoltz can pitch as a starter all year (a big if, i know), braves are gunna have another solid, if not damn good staff. hudson is a legitimate ace and will take a lot of pressure off of smoltz.

now however, you have to wonder about the outfield. do the braves make a trade for someone like jacque jones? then sign burnitz or delucci? it's obvious they need to do something.

landing jacque jones would be quite solid, but we will have to wait and see.

[FBPro]

I like Hudson in a Brave's uni......:)

[ISiddiqui]

Man, I'm shocked that Giles wasn't part of this deal!

[cincyreds]

Great trade for Atlanta.

They had better resign Drew it looks like.

[SoxWin]

Great trade for Atlanta.

They had better resign Drew it looks like.

They can't until May 1st or whatever the deadline is. He wasn't offered arb.

[Sharpieman]

I wouldn't put anything past Beane, I bet one of the three he got turns into a star.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Where did you see this news? I haven't seen it anywhere. Could you pass along what prospect?

http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/1204/17hudson.html

Moments after the trade was announced, the Braves unveiled another deal -- they sent outfielder Eli Marrero and cash to Kansas City for pitcher Jorge Vasquez. ... Vasquez, 26, also made his major league debut last season, pitching in two games for Kansas City. He spent most of the year at Triple-A Wichita, going 4-5 with a 4.68 ERA and 18 saves.

[GrantDawg]

Strange. Trade Marrero and Thomas. I like getting Hudson, but losing both of those guys leave some big gaps. Of course, there is probably more to come.

BTW, they extended Smoltz two more years today.

[MizzouRah]

...and the Cardinals did......


NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!!


GO CARDS!


Todd

[Mr. Sparkle]

Yeah, one thing about Sheurholtz(sp?) is that he wouldnt make a move like that without having more in the works. Brian Sabean...now that's another story.

[oykib]

'Got a sneaking suspicion that the deal just garnered a bunch of chips for Beane to engineer a three-way with the Yanks and D-backs. That's the biggest deal waiting to happen, and it gives him the chance to rip two teams.

He could send all the prospects he doesn't want to AZ and rip them for one of theirs that they've targeted and maybe pick up Vasquez (at less than half his salary) or Halsey and Navarro form the Yanks.

[Logan]

'Got a sneaking suspicion that the deal just garnered a bunch of chips for Beane to engineer a three-way with the Yanks and D-backs. That's the biggest deal waiting to happen, and it gives him the chance to rip two teams.

He could send all the prospects he doesn't want to AZ and rip them for one of theirs that they've targeted and maybe pick up Vasquez (at less than half his salary) or Halsey and Navarro form the Yanks.

Close...but the A's weren't involved. :)

http://www.newsday.com/sports/ny-sprandy1217,0,3877851.story?coll=ny-homepage-big-pix

[Fonzie]

...and the Cardinals did......


NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!!


GO CARDS!


Todd

Yeah, I have to wonder what Jocketty's thinking. I hope he has a good plan B. And a good plan C, at this rate.

[sterlingice]

http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/1204/17hudson.html

Moments after the trade was announced, the Braves unveiled another deal -- they sent outfielder Eli Marrero and cash to Kansas City for pitcher Jorge Vasquez. ... Vasquez, 26, also made his major league debut last season, pitching in two games for Kansas City. He spent most of the year at Triple-A Wichita, going 4-5 with a 4.68 ERA and 18 saves.
You know, I just don't understand this deal. We've got DeJesus set in center (he really does look like a young Beltran but probably doesn't have the power potential- fast, good average, and great fielder, tho). Then there's the two headed beast of Long and Abraham Nunez on one side and Baird is looking for a power guy to go on the other side so that Matt Stairs can go back to being super sub. Aaron Guiel didn't get taken in the Rule V so I presumed the job was him. Not that Marerro isn't as good as any of those guys, but he's not better than any of them so why bother? Vasquez is pretty much nothing to give up but why pile on more mediocrity- nothing given up but nothing gotten in return. The speculation on the Royals MLB board is that they're going to try and spin him midseason for prospects and that worked pretty well last season as the Royals snagged pretty good prospects in Denny Bautista and Justin Huber for spare parts Jason Grimsley and Jose Bautista. So I guess the plan is to continue more of this but I just don't see anywhere for him to play and they should have just let Nunez and Guiel have their shots in a year where they're really not going anywhere.

SI

[Bomber]

Does anyone else realize Tim Hudson isn't that good?

[sterlingice]

Does anyone else realize Tim Hudson isn't that good? Now don't take this the wrong way, but "Huh?"

I'm awfully hard on players, saying a lot are overrated or worthless. But even I realize that you can find something wrong about everyone but there are goods about most players, too. For instance, his home away splits certainly tell you that Oakland is a pitcher's park but he's still got an ERA in the 3.5 range over the past 3 years on the road. If you're going to try and sign someone to a long term contract, he would be near the absolute top of my list of any pitchers in baseball - fairly durable, good track record, good secondary stats, etc.

Frankly, among all the pitchers who have signed or moved this offseason (Pavano, Benson, Pedro, Ortiz, etc), this is the best one to have change teams. There are 32 teams out there who would have him in the top 3 of their rotation. When you sit there and say "My team should spend $10M on an ace", everyone has this image in their mind but no one can ever put a name to that idea. Hudson, definitely is close to what most people have in their mind.

SI

[Easy Mac]

Does anyone else realize Tim Hudson isn't that good?
Well lets see... who would I rather have... Jaret Wright or Tim Hudson... Kevin Brown or Tim Hudson... Carl Pavano or Tim Hudson... Other crappy Yankee pitcher or Tim Hudson... el fin

[Bomber]

Its just the declining K/9 rate is seriously alarming. He's had a few injuries in the last few years. I mean he's been successful, but his numbers are just surprisingly bad.

[Bomber]

In other words, his numbers are trending the wrong way.

[Easy Mac]

dola, I'm really liking the Braves staff this year... on paper its a pretty damn good staff:
Hudson (a solid #1)
Horacio Ramirez (a very good pitcher if healthy)
Mike Hampton (is either very good or very bad)
John Smoltz (a very good pitcher if healthy)
John Thompson (was serviceable last year)

We have pretty good infield coming back with Chipper, Furcal, Giles, and LaRoche (really came on in the 2nd half), with Estrada catching. No corner outfielders, but if Andruw is willing to work (big if), we'll have a decent outfield with whoever we get. I'll miss Chucky Thomas, he was fun to watch... but I don't think his and Marrerro'strade value would be as high next year.

The bench is a little thin, and aside from Kolb, the bullpen is a little off, but Mazzone has turned out a good pen the last few year.

I'd think this team should be a favorite in the NL East this year... and the last rumor I heard is they were still chasing Millwood, who I think could turn it around in ATL.

I'm really excited for this team.

[sterlingice]

Its just the declining K/9 rate is seriously alarming. He's had a few injuries in the last few years. I mean he's been successful, but his numbers are just surprisingly bad.
To my point, every player has some bad points. But he's got a good track record and, well, if Leo Mazzone can turn Jaret Wright and John Thomson (among a great many others) into above average pitchers, just imagine what can be done with Hudson.

How about this:

Well lets see... who would I rather have... Jaret Wright or Tim Hudson... Kevin Brown or Tim Hudson... Carl Pavano or Tim Hudson... Other crappy Yankee pitcher or Tim Hudson... el fin
SI

[Bomber]

I don't see what the Yankees' rotation has to do with this? Plus there is a big difference between comparing the Yankees' 3,4, and 5 starters to the Braves #1.

[sterlingice]

dola, I'm really liking the Braves staff this year... on paper its a pretty damn good staff:
Hudson (a solid #1)
Horacio Ramirez (a very good pitcher if healthy)
Mike Hampton (is either very good or very bad)
John Smoltz (a very good pitcher if healthy)
John Thompson (was serviceable last year)
I don't know about Smoltzie. I'll contend that he's the most clutch pitcher of our generation (no, Mariano, throwing an inning a game doesn't make you the best post season pitcher- try going inning after inning against Jack Morris in Game 7 of a shutout World Series), but going back to starting after relieving for so long...

SI

[Bomber]

Also its not like Hudson was working with a terrible pitching coach for most of his career. Rick Peterson is just as good as Leo Mazzone.

[Bomber]

I don't know about Smoltzie. I'll contend that he's the most clutch pitcher of our generation (no, Mariano, throwing an inning a game doesn't make you the best post season pitcher- try going inning after inning against Jack Morris in Game 7 of a shutout World Series), but going back to starting after relieving for so long...

SI

I'd have to go with Schilling. He solidified that this year.

[Ben E Lou]

Good trade for Atlanta. I'd expect that there's more to come. I really hope so, actually, because the AJC has already started talk about Jeff Francoeur making the team in the spring. I cannot IMAGINE the number of AJC sportwriters masturbating all over the place for that to happen.

[Bomber]

Yeah I mean the Big 3 have been really successful since Peterson joined the Mets.

[Ben E Lou]

Also its not like Hudson was working with a terrible pitching coach for most of his career.Agreed, but...Rick Peterson is just as good as Leo Mazzone....this is blasphemy.

[Bomber]

I'll agree with that, but Ted Lilly definitely became better than what most expected with the A's. I'm waiting to see what Peterson does with Zambrano and Benson this year.

[MizzouRah]

There are 32 teams out there who would have him in the top 3 of their rotation. When you sit there and say "My team should spend $10M on an ace", everyone has this image in their mind but no one can ever put a name to that idea. Hudson, definitely is close to what most people have in their mind.


Personally, I thought he was THE pitcher to get this offseason. He was my #1 choice for the Cardinals to get. In my eyes, he's a number one on most teams.


Todd

[Alan T]

Yeah I mean the Big 3 have been really successful since Peterson joined the Mets.


I think the issue here is that its one thing to turn young pitching prospects into successful pitchers. (There is alot to be said for that, I don't think Duncan for instance has ever turned a pitching prospect into a quality pitcher that I can remember). The reason that Mazzone is thought so highly of is that not only has he turned pitching prospects into pitching stars, but he has taken scrapheap pitchers, or pitchers left for dead and helped rejuivinated their careers.. Not once, not twice, but consistantly in his tenure in Atlanta.

Saying Peterson is a good pitching coach seems pretty accurate. I also think that Mazzone has that special something that seperates him from other pitching coaches (and that appears to be widly recognized across the league).

[Alan T]

In other words, his numbers are trending the wrong way.

I don't see signs that his numbers are trending the wrong way. In fact it looks to me that in my opinion, 2003 was his best season of his career. Last season was not as good and he was injured. I probably wouldn't consider one season "trending" as it is very common for pitchers to go from Cy young seasons , or cy young calibre seasons to having a not as good year. Even with his not as good year, he still was in the top 6 in the league for some pretty important statistics, including adjusted ERA, which showed he still was a quality pitcher in a tough league.

Is he as good as 2003 every yeaR? Probably not. No pitcher is always as good as their best seasons. Is he as good as 2004 every season? Probably better. I would say that his numbers have been mostly consistant through his career, and this does not seem like a large question mark to me.

[Bomber]

1999 8.71
2000 7.52
2001 6.93
2002 5.74
2003 6.08
2004 4.91

That's a K/9 that's trending downward.

[Crapshoot]

Bomber is right- but if you notice, the A's have trended towards an improved and defense, and have tried to push their players into pitching towards BIP- because they know they have a great chance of getting them out. Some of Hudson's K rate decline is almost certainly intentional.

[Bomber]

You might be right, but Mulder and Zito's strikeout rates haven't seen the same dramatic decline as Hudson's.

[Alan T]

ERA+

1999: 149
2000: 114
2001: 129
2002: 156
2003: 158
2004: 133

According to that in order, his best season was 2003, then 2002, then 1999, then 2004, then 2001, then 2000...

Others of his stats showed pretty similar detail...

BB/9:

1999: 4.09
2000: 3.65
2001: 2.72
2002: 2.34
2003: 2.29
2004: 2.10

To me that shows he has improved every single year including last year and has become a smarter pitcher as well. I think you are picking your arguement based on your beliefs and then trying to find a stat to "prove" it. THe nice things about stats is you can use them to prove almost anything you want if you try hard enough :)

Either way, I think Hudson's biggest thing to prove is how he bounces back after being injured some last year. To believe he will do one vs the other relies on some form of faith, and is something interesting to watch for this year. I dont think this was much of a gamble, and probably was a good move on the Braves part to pick him up.

[KWhit]

Although I think too much is made out of this, he is also coming over to a new league where batters haven't seen him as much.

As a Braves fan, I am really excited about this. I had thought that we would be in rebuilding mode this year, but it doesn't look like it.

[Bomber]

It's not like K/9 isn't a huge stat for judging a pitcher or anything. I'm not really familar with the Braves defense. Are they good enough to deal with a guy who doesn't strike people out? Anyway I suppose it doesn't matter because the strikeout rate will jump with the move to the NL.

Also I'm not saying its a bad pick up by the way. I can't wait to see what Mazzone can do for with a new young stud. However, I don't know if he's good enough to put them over the top or ever be a truly dominant "ace".

[JonInMiddleGA]

I think I'm leaning toward Bomber's POV on this. It isn't a bad deal, but I don't think it's one that wins a division in & of itself either.

And although I'm a pitching-over-hitting guy, I'm not sure where the offense is going to come from with the current roster. Hudson, Smoltz, et al are going to have to pitch a lot of shutouts if this team keeps the division streak alive.

[Easy Mac]

Question for Braves fans... Is Horacio Ramirez playing next year? How hurt is he?

I ask because Peter Gammons lists the rotation next year as Hudson, Hampton, Smoltz, Thompson, and Kyle Davies. Is Ramirez still anything? He was our best pitcher until he went down last year.

Also, John, I'd say if Chipper bounces back, we'll have one of the better hitting infields/catcher in the NL.

Chipper woke up some in the 2nd half, and hit .278 with 18 HR's and 62 RBI's in 72 games, Not the Chipper we've seen every year, but I think thats more of what we'll see in the future than the .200 hitter in the first half.

Estrada will probably perform around his 2nd half split from last year as catching continues to wear, but he stil hit .290.

Giles hit .299 in the 2nd half, probably about normal.

Furcal hit .282 and stole 20 bases, and we saw what he could do in the playoffs.

LaRoche finally started playing closer to the "Mark Grace" billing he came up with, hitting .302 in the 2nd half and playing well in the playoffs.

I'd say thats a pretty good 1-5. Hopefully the trade talks will motivate Andruw (I doubt it), but there could be a pretty solid 1-6 team right there. 789 will hurt, but thats true of most NL teams, and hopefully the pitching will get the team through.

I don't think this will be anywhere near a power team like we saw 2 years ago. But this will be a pretty good contact team, and a team that will hopefully generate runs that way.