Clement picks the Sox

[Bomber]

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20041217&content_id=923895&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp

3 years $25.5 million.

[Suicane75]

I bet Shorty has some questions about Clements record.

[Bomber]

In this day and age, how can you have a 3.68 ERA, win under 10 games, and for that matter, have a losing record by 4 losses more than wins! 9-13, that's crazy.

ERA and Wins/Losses aren't good stats for judging pitchers.

[korme]

In this day and age, how can you have a 3.68 ERA, win under 10 games, and for that matter, have a losing record by 4 losses more than wins! 9-13, that's crazy.

[ISiddiqui]

I wouldn't be surprised if Clement has a better year than Pedro ;).

[korme]

ERA and Wins/Losses aren't good stats for judging pitchers.
i can understand W/L, but ERA has to be a pretty good gauge.. what were you thinking is the best stat for judging? WHIP?

[Bomber]

Clement:
ERA+: 123
WHIP: 1.28
DIPS: 4.06
K/9: 9.45
K/BB: 2.47

Wright:
ERA+: 131
WHIP: 1.28
DIPS: 3.40
K/9: 7.68
K/BB: 2.27

Pavano:
ERA+: 137
WHIP: 1.17
DIPS: 3.56
K/9: 5.63
K/BB: 2.84

[korme]

I bet Suicane will reply so he can comment that I probably have some comments

[Bomber]

Clement only got 4.03 runs per game from his team, thus explaining his shitty W/L record. ERA+ is better than ERA because it is park and league normalized. 100 is league average, so Pavano was 37% better than average, Clement 23%, and Wright 31%.

[MikeVic]

Boo! I wanted the Jays to get him. :(

[Craptacular]

In this day and age, how can you have a 3.68 ERA, win under 10 games, and for that matter, have a losing record by 4 losses more than wins! 9-13, that's crazy.
2004 Ben Sheets
2.70 ERA, 264 K, 32 BB, 12 W - 14 L

At least you can explain his record by looking at his team.

[Bomber]

For comparison Sheets' RS was 3.53 and Eric Milton's was 6.54.

[MizzouRah]

Damn, how much money does a world series ring get you these days? The sox are spending money like crazy.


Todd

[Cap Ologist]

i can understand W/L, but ERA has to be a pretty good gauge.. what were you thinking is the best stat for judging? WHIP?
No those little stars on his baseball card that OOTP incorporated into their game is the best way.

[Chief Rum]

Diappointed we fell short here, as I thought Clement was the perfect addition for the Angels. In the end, Pittsburgh is closer to Boston than LA, so Boston it is.

What is most disappointing to me, though, as an Angels fan is that I really think Bill Stoneman has dropped the ball with his intents this offseason.

He stopped pursuing Beltran, even though we were favored by many insiders to land him, because he wanted to get starting pitching. So he signed Finley instead, expecting to use the money saved to land a big time starter.

Well, who's left? Odalis Perez? Is there anyone in this inflated market that can now be called a deal?

Our starting pitching was so hit-and-miss last year, so coming back with the inconsistent Colon, mediocre starters in Washburn and Lackey, and a mid-30s Byrd just a year removed from Tommy John surgery is very disappointing. At least we still have Escobar--with some run support, he what have put up some eye-popping wins (he was our Clement last year).

I just pray Stoneman doesn't go out there now and overpay for guys like Millwood or Milton. You couldn't buy pitchers more mediocre than that.

Missing out on Clement wouldn't feel so bad if the top top available pitchers on the trade market weren't also dealt just before he decided.

I certainly hope Stoneman has some kind of plan right now, because I am seeing it, I am not sure this team is better than last year's, and it won't take too many bad breaks for it to be, in fact, much worse (and that's bad news in baseball's best top to bottom division).

CR

[Bomber]

Diappointed we fell short here, as I thought Clement was the perfect addition for the Angels. In the end, Pittsburgh is closer to Boston than LA, so Boston it is.


While that is what Clement said was his reasoning for choosing Boston, I kind of think the chance to be the number 2 starter on the defending World Champs played some kind of role. Plus wasn't the Sox offer slightly higher?

[Chief Rum]

While that is what Clement said was his reasoning for choosing Boston, I kind of think the chance to be the number 2 starter on the defending World Champs played some kind of role. Plus wasn't the Sox offer slightly higher?

Well, of course I am sure it did. But it was reported the past couple days that this would come down to the Sox and Angels, and nothing I have heard leads me to believe that it was such an easy decision.

He said he was looking for a place that was committed to winning for the next three years, that had a great organization and owner in place, and that was offering good money. He (or his agent) said the Angels and Sox were essentially the two teams that met all qualifications, and that the big decider was the proximity of Boston to his hometown. Let's face it, it's not like the Angels haven't won a WS recently or weren't a playoff team this year, you know.

Every indication I have heard both officially and behind the scenes is that this was as close as a coin flip.

CR

[Bomber]

Looking at Clement's numbers is it safe to say this is as big a risk for the Sox as any Yankee free agent pitcher this year? He's had 1 good year, 1 slightly better than average year, and one average year. Plus 3 below average years.

[Suicane75]

I personaly think Clement is poised for greatness. Dont have any numbers to back me up but he seems to mature mental every year to catch up with his amazing stuff.

[Chief Rum]

Looking at Clement's numbers is it safe to say this is as big a risk for the Sox as any Yankee free agent pitcher this year? He's had 1 good year, 1 slightly better than average year, and one average year. Plus 3 below average years.

Definitely some risk. I have heard many people say he is inconsistent and mediocre, despite putting up some nice K-to-IP numbers.

Those early years, you kinda have to toss out, because most pitchers don't just start kickin' butt from the getgo (consider the guy he is replacing, Pedro, didn't really turn the corner until he went to Montreal, for instance). His recent years are probably more indicative of his current ability, and you could make an argument that last year could be him coming into his own, in which case the Sox got a pretty good pitcher for a pretty decent price.

So he is a risk, but I think there's a high likelihood of them getting at least solid play from him. Comparing it to the Yankees' signees, I feel he might be less of a risk. Wright has had one good year recently after years of injuries and inconcistencies, and he is now removed from that rejuvenator of pitching careers, Mazzone in Atlanta. Pavano is a ground ball pitcher who also showed very little consistency before this past season, and he's playing in front of a not too great infield (defensively, and don't give me that Jeter GG BS, he didn't deserve that at all; best SS with the Yanks is still playing 3B).

So I could see Clement doing better than both Wright and Pavano. He won't do better than the Unit, but then, the Unit wasn't a free agent signee. :)

CR

[Desnudo]

Damn, how much money does a world series ring get you these days? The sox are spending money like crazy.


Todd

If they had managed to offload Ramirez' salary there would have been real chaos.

[Bomber]

If we're tossing out Clement's early years, why not toss out Pavano and Wright's? They're all about the same age, all have had one good season, and Pavano and Wright's were much better. I'm interested to see how they handle the jump to the AL.

[Cuckoo]

I personaly think Clement is poised for greatness. Dont have any numbers to back me up but he seems to mature mental every year to catch up with his amazing stuff.

I don't know if I'd say greatness, (in that I don't think he's a Cy Young guy), but he's an outstanding number two guy, and he really does have amazing stuff. I agree with Suicane that he has come a long way and looks to still have room to grow.

[Suicane75]

If we're tossing out Clement's early years, why not toss out Pavano and Wright's? They're all about the same age, all have had one good season, and Pavano and Wright's were much better. I'm interested to see how they handle the jump to the AL.


One word, Injuries. Wright and Pavano have had big time injuries and have seen a downward slope in their career before rebounding last season. Clement has gotten consistently better each year.

If I had to rank the signings I would say Clement, Pavano, Wright.

I think if all things are equal Clement has the best upside of them all, Pavano has the best chance to be a solid pitcher and Wright has the best chance to have an ERA over 5 come August.

[Suicane75]

I don't know if I'd say greatness, (in that I don't think he's a Cy Young guy), but he's an outstanding number two guy, and he really does have amazing stuff. I agree with Suicane that he has come a long way and looks to still have room to grow.

Yeah, maybe i overshot with the use of the word greatness, but I think he has a real solid chance to be very, very good.

[Desnudo]

Always look at the strikeouts, at least that's what I remember was said in Moneyball. I think Clement has a much better chance of being consistently successful than the other two, especially Pavano.

[Chief Rum]

If we're tossing out Clement's early years, why not toss out Pavano and Wright's? They're all about the same age, all have had one good season, and Pavano and Wright's were much better. I'm interested to see how they handle the jump to the AL.

Because their years this year are a far departure from anythin gthey have even come close to. Clement has had three straight decent to good years now, in a row. That speaks to consistency as he has matured.

Before this season, Pavano had a worse year than Clement has had since 2001 (ironically with Florida), and despite that, it was Pavano's best full year starting in his entire career, except perhaps for his rookie year (which was only marginally better).

Wright, prior to coming to Atlanta last late in 2003, was putting up an 8.37 ERA in San Diego. Injuries and inconsistency severely limited his time from 2000-03--do you really think he will stay healthy for his entire contract, or is even a lock to do so through next season? And prior to this past season, his last truly full seasons (1998-99) featured 4.72 and 6.06 ERAs.

I'm not saying Pavano and Wright are crap. But you asked which pitchers are the bigger risks, and I see both of them as quite a bit more risky right now than Clement (who also is the oldest at 30, so is perhaps a little more mature as well).

CR

[CentralMassHokie]

The thinking around the Clement signing is that NL Central pitchers tend to look worse than NL East pitchers because they play in a lot of hitters parks against a lot of massive lineups (Cubs, Astros, St. Louis), whereas pitchers in the East predominantly pitch in pitchers parks against weaker lineups (Montreal, Mets, Florida).

I'm not super high on Clement. I wanted him as part of the Nomar deal purely as an upgrade over Derek Lowe, but for $8m a year, I'm not sure he'll be any better than Odalis Perez.

I do think he'll be better than Pavano, if purely because he has more margin for error striking out 9 per 9, as opposed to Pavano striking out 5. As much as everyone talks about K/BB ratio, it's K/9 that shows the most correlation to ERA.

[BigJohn&TheLions]

It is early and my eyes are still wishing they were in bed. I initially thought thread said "Clemens picks the Sox."

[Bomber]

The thinking around the Clement signing is that NL Central pitchers tend to look worse than NL East pitchers because they play in a lot of hitters parks against a lot of massive lineups (Cubs, Astros, St. Louis), whereas pitchers in the East predominantly pitch in pitchers parks against weaker lineups (Montreal, Mets, Florida).



In ERA+ which is park and league normalized Clement was behind both Pavano and Wright. I'm not expecting Pavano to repeat 2004, but if the Yankees get Beltran our defense should be good enough to get him somewhere near there. I'm just praying Mazzone taught Wright enough in a 1.5 years for him to continue his recent success.

[Godzilla Blitz]

I am starting to feel like a Yankees' fan.

[Desnudo]

I am starting to feel like a Yankees' fan.

Second best?

[Bomber]

Second best?

26-6.

[Desnudo]

26-6.

1-0 in 2004.