Tour de Lance: A Tour de France 2004 replay dynasty

[Wolfpack]

And now for something completely different....

Hello, all, and welcome to a potentially long-running, slow-paced dynasty that will replay the 2004 TDF using a tabletop game called "La Grande Boucle" (available here (http://www.tabletop-sports.com/modules.php?name=UpDownload&req=viewsdownload&sid=120)). This game has ratings for all riders in the 2004 Tour, mostly having to do with time trials, sprinting ability, and climbing ability, with special rules governing the use of each. While there are automated versions of the game available, I'll be doing this mostly by hand (though Excel will be a very large contributor in terms of tracking standings and adding some variety).

I'm also doing the full experience, all 188 riders. Due to the nature of the game having its ratings tied specifically to this particular tour, a number of riders will drop out of the race as they really did, including such riders as Tyler Hamilton (who bailed during stage 13) and Ivan Mayo (who didn't come out for stage 15). The rules grant a little bit of leeway in case those riders are doing well when they are scheduled to drop, but for the most part, they should be exiting the stage on cue.

The game creator has specified the type of stage each stage is (TT, flat stage, mountain stage) and has rules for governing each (attacks, breakaways, finishes, climbs, etc). However, I'll be adding to the game a little bit so I can keep accurate track of King of the Mountain and the Green jersey, along with Yellow and Team standings. For instance, the game doesn't credit KoM points for climbs rated 3 or 4, but I'll do it anyway, just using the bunched finish rules for climbs if no breakaway has occurred. Same for intermediate sprint points. Excel will be handling virtually all the math for me. I'll just roll the virtual dice (with my dice program) and see what comes up over the course of the race.

As I said, this will be a long-term, low-impact, stop-and-start project. My goal is to finish by the time TDF 2005 comes around in July. It'll depend on the free time I can muster for it. I have a monster project coming in May at work and am not sure how much that will affect things.

I'm trying to decide a good reporting format, especially for something like time trials, where the only specified detail is how much time it takes for a rider to finish, though there would be occasional trouble for most of the lesser riders. I'm thinking for at least the Prologue of identifying whenever a rider comes in first "for the moment" and also detailing the final times for those riders who are strongly rated for the trial (such as Armstrong). Any suggestions? As for regular stages, the nature of the game draws attention to certain events like breakaways and sprints, so I don't think it'll be too difficult to report the goings-on for those stages.

I have already run the Prologue (did it a couple of days ago, but have been spending time tinkering with my Excel sheets to get the output I want). I will attempt to post results tonight or tomorrow.

This should be interesting (and hopefully fun). :)

[Ragone]

My suggestion.. Eliminate Lance "Doping is my friend" Armstrong from the field :)

[kingfc22]

Interesting, I will be following along.

[Alf]

My suggestion.. Eliminate Lance "Doping is my friend" Armstrong from the field :) If you do that, you would need to drop also 95% of the "peloton" with Lance http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/wink.gif

Edit : and I will follow

[MIJB#19]

Yay, another dynasty to read.

[JeeberD]

My suggestion.. Eliminate Lance "Doping is my friend" Armstrong from the field :)


:rolleyes:

[Wolfpack]

Well, seeing as this is a replay, IOW, a recreation of the actual event, Lance has to be in the event. Besides, his name's on the thread... ;)

Coming up, we'll head to Liege, Belgium and the start of the 2004 Tour with the uber-quick Prologue stage. The guys will barely get their hearts racing before it's over.

[Wolfpack]

Prologue--Liege, Belgium (July 3, 2004)

The action starts with the prologue on Saturday July 3, beginning in the centre of Liège, Belgium before winding along the River Meuse and then passing the Palais des Princes Eveques. This is a 6 km time-trial on a flat circuit and will test the riders aiming for a top ten, finishing in the in the beautiful Boulevard de la Sauvenière.

Route map:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/images/maps/Map_StageP.gif

Route profile:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/images/profiles/prologue.gif

The first rider to be sent off in the Prologue will be Pierre Bourquenoud, a 34-year old rider from Switzerland and member of the RAGT Semences-MG Rover team at 4:01 PM. Defending champion Lance Armstrong of US Postal Service will make his 2004 debut as the last rider in the trial at 7:08 PM.

[Wolfpack]

4:01 PM
Pierre Bourquenoud (RAGT) departs the start line and the 2004 Tour is under way.

4:09 PM
Bourquenord finishes his time trial in 8:00.52 to set the first benchmark for the riders following.

It is a mark that will be easily beaten by a number of riders over the next 40 minutes.

4:48 PM
Viatcheslav Ekimov (USPS) comes blazing into the finish, setting a new mark at 7:09.78, good for a momentary four-second lead.

4:51 PM
Angel Vicioso (Liberty Seguros) departs the starting line and sets a strong pace. At the timecheck, he's well in front of Ekimov's time and looks like he will take the lead.

4:58 PM
Vicioso's great trial run finishes and he has lowered the bar by a full seven seconds, finishing at 7:02.24. It should stand up for a while, but the best riders should beat that and get under seven minutes. However, only a couple of riders are able to come even close to Vicioso's mark for almost an hour.

5:42 PM
Nicolas Jalabert (Phonak) makes his departure on his trial run. A fairly solid bike rider in most tours, he seems to be on a mission this afternoon. His split time at the halfway point is a few seconds in front of Vicioso's mark.

5:49 PM
Jalabert continues his torrid pace throughout the trial and blasts across the line as the first rider to break seven minutes in the trial, posting a time of 6:58.55. A dazzling run to get the crowd buzzing. It remains to be seen whether he'll be knocked from the perch he occupies.

[Wolfpack]

5:51 PM
George Hincapie, another member of USPS is now racing towards the line to complete his trial. He started up a couple of minutes after Jalabert and has been close on the clock the whole way. Hincapie breaks the line...two seconds behind Jalabert's time! Hincapie's time is just fractions over seven minutes at 7:00.32. Still, it gives him second place for the moment.

6:15 PM
Samuel Duomoulin (Ag2r) becomes the first victim of bike problems in the 2004 tour as his bike experiences mechanical problems during the early portion of his trial. He is able to get a new bike, but the time lost eventually drops him well back, completing the stage in 8:04.66. He will finish in 186th place of 188 riders.

6:27 PM
Time trial specialist Jens Voigt (Team CSC) arrives at the line, challenging the current leading marks by Jalabert and Hincapie. His time comes up...7:00.92! Just a half-second or so behind Hincapie. Voigt now moves into third place for the trial.

6:29 PM
Two minutes later, another specialist, Fabian Cancellara (Fassa Bortolo) comes to the finish of his trial. He, too, has challenged the leadership through his time checks. Cancellara barrels through the line...he sets the new top mark! 6:58.04! He edges out Jalabert by a half-second to take over the top spot.

6:47 PM
Jose Guttierez (Banesto) is having a great sprint through the streets of Liege and snaps the line. 6:56.12! He smashes through Cancellara's top mark and assumes first by two seconds.

6:49 PM
Sprint specialist Thor Hushovd (Credit Agricole) is making a strong bid for the top ten in his ride today. He comes across the line...6:59.84! Close, but with Guttierez knocking the top mark down a couple of seconds just a couple minutes earlier, he finds himself down in fourth place.

7:00 PM
As time draws near for Lance Armstrong to begin his defense, another American comes in from his trial and cracks the top 10. It is Levi Leipheimer (Rabobank). His time of 7:03.32 is good enough to land him in eighth for the moment.

7:06 PM
Tyler Hamilton (Phonak), the up-and-coming American star who made waves in the 2003 tour by finishing fourth despite a broken collarbone, starts his bid for the 2004 title.

7:07 PM
1997 Tour winner Jan Ullrich (T-Mobile), the only other Tour winner in the 2004 race besides Armstrong, begins the tour by departing the start line.

7:08 PM
The final rider of the day, the one with the "1" tag stuck to his back, sets off. Five-time champion Lance Armstrong (USPS) begins his quest for history.

7:10 PM
Just up the way at the finish line, Christophe Moreau (Credit Agricole) breaks the line and nets himself a top ten finish with a time of 7:03.80. It's good enough for ninth place at the moment.

7:13 PM
Tyler Hamilton has concluded a rather inauspicious start to the tour, finishing well off the pace of other riders at 7:09.10, which only gets him 21st.

7:14 PM
Jan Ullrich's start, considering the buildup after last year's run that pushed Armstrong, is disappointing. He actually comes in fractions behind Hamilton's time at 7:09.92, but that means 28th place for him.

7:15 PM
As for the reigning champion, Armstrong is his usual self. He's slightly off of Guttierez's pace, but he's pretty much even with Fabian Cancellara's time for second. As he breaks the line and completes the first day of the 2004 Tour the clock reads out...6:58.04! A tie with Cancellara! Armstrong comes in tied for second and sends a strong message to those who finished just before him. He's already got ten seconds on both Hamilton and Ullrich and it's only the first day.

[fantastic flying froggies]

An intriguing new dynasty, I'll be reading!

Interesting to see that your top 3 matched what happened IRL, albeit a different order.

(And when you get to stage 14 between Carcassonne and Nimes, you can see me on the side of the road watching the riders zip by! I was there!)

[Wolfpack]

Prologue results

1 Jose Guttierez Banesto 6.56
2 Fabian Cancellara Bassa Bortolo -0.02
Lance Armstrong USPS
4 Nicolas Jalabert Phonak -0.03
5 Thor Husholvd Credit Agricole -0.04
6 George Hincapie USPS
7 Jens Voigt Team CSC -0.05
8 Angel Vicioso Liberty Seguros -0.06
9 Levi Leipheimer Rabobank -0.07
10 Christophe Moreau Credit Agricole -0.08


Overall standings after Prologue
Yellow Jersey (Overall individual)

1 Jose Guttierez Banesto 6.56
2 Fabian Cancellara Bassa Bortolo -0.02
Lance Armstrong USPS
4 Nicolas Jalabert Phonak -0.03
5 Thor Husholvd Credit Agricole -0.04
6 George Hincapie USPS
7 Jens Voigt Team CSC -0.05
8 Angel Vicioso Liberty Seguros -0.06
9 Levi Leipheimer Rabobank -0.07
10 Christophe Moreau Credit Agricole -0.08


Green Jersey (Points)

1 Jose Guttierez Banesto 15
2 Fabian Cancellara Bassa Bortolo 11
Lance Armstrong USPS 11
4 Nicolas Jalabert Phonak 8
5 Thor Husholvd Credit Agricole 6
6 George Hincapie USPS 5
7 Jens Voigt Team CSC 4
8 Angel Vicioso Liberty Seguros 3
9 Levi Leipheimer Rabobank 2
10 Christophe Moreau Credit Agricole 1


White Jersey (Young Rider)

1 Fabian Cancellara Bassa Bortolo 6.58
2 Benjamin Noval USPS -0.08
Bernhard Eisel FD Jeux.com
4 Jimmy Engoulvent Cofidis -0.11
5 Tom Boonen Quick Step -0.12
Vladimir Karpets Banesto
7 Sebastian Lang Gerolsteiner -0.13
8 Mark Scanlon Ag2r -0.17
9 Sandy Casar FD Jeux.com -0.18
10 Sylvain Chavanel Brioches -0.19


Team Standings

1 USPS 21.04
2 Phonak -0.08
3 Team CSC -0.14
4 Fassa Bortolo -0.17
5 Banesto -0.18
6 Rabobank -0.24
7 FD Jeux.com -0.25
8 Euskaltel-Euskadi -0.29
Credit Agricole
10 T-Mobile -0.35

[Wolfpack]

It shouldn't be a surprise regarding the finishers. The guy who created the game has it so that generally the riders who really did do well in 2004 will do well here, since it's based on the actual outcomes, rather than a vague rating that can lead to any number of outcomes. The roll of the dice will still lead to changes of fortune for some riders, but by and large the standings at the end of the Tour should be pretty close to real life.

[Wolfpack]

Stage 1 (July 4)--Liege to Charleroi, 202.5 km

Sticking to the valleys in this stage, the race sweeps into the country, passing through the area made famous by the Liège-Bastogne-Liège, showing off beautiful tourist attractions such as Roche en Ardenne and Durbuy, the smallest village in Belgium. The riders will circle Charleroi on the outer Boulevards before finishing on a 1,700 metre long straight in the southern part of the city. The course isn't flat like the prologue, and riders that are used to riding short sharp hills will be closer to the top ten today, with five categorised climbs to contend with.

(BTW, I'm getting these descriptions and images from cyclingnews.com, if anyone's wondering)

Route map:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/images/maps/Map_Stage1.gif

Route profile:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/images/profiles/Profile_Stage1.gif

There are five climbs, all of the easy variety and concentrated in the early part of the stage. After coming out of the hills, there are three sprint awards at Modave (114.5 km), Wanze (132.5 km), and at Eghezee (158 km).

[Wolfpack]

Scratch everything I just did. I've reconsidered my approach somewhat. I've been trying to figure out the best way to represent these small hops which aren't normally covered in the game rules. I tried a rule of thumb that halved the climber ratings of the best climbers in the race to reduce the chance of someone like Armstrong getting KoM points on these short hills. However, after examining who got KoM points in the real first stage, it turns out there was an initial breakaway group that ran ahead and collected all the KoM points before being caught around 70 km from the finish. Therefore, I'll need to ponder a little more before deciding how to do this.

[fantastic flying froggies]

...However, after examining who got KoM points in the real first stage, it turns out there was an initial breakaway group that ran ahead and collected all the KoM points before being caught around 70 km from the finish. Therefore, I'll need to ponder a little more before deciding how to do this.
Wolfpack, FWIW, this is almost always the case in every stage of the first week or so of the TdF.

[Wolfpack]

I was coming to that conclusion after looking at the other early stages. Turns out I had misread a rule regarding distance. I was reading it as "distance from finish" rather than "distance to finish", which is a big difference. One puts attack attempts at the start of the stage, the other puts it at the end of the stage. I'm still not totally satisfied though, as it looks like riders tend to breakaway on average about 10 km into a given stage, but the rules only provision a 2d6 read right-to-left, which means the absolute worst could be 11 km. I would think a 2d6 summed and added by 5 (which would mean an average break of 12 km) would be more accurate, at least for the first breakaway attempt of a stage. Problem is that he's got a breakaway chance rule that effectively negates a breakaway so soon into such a long stage. I'm thinking of altering that as well so that chances will occur.

[Wolfpack]

OK, I think I've figured out how I'm going to work this. Most all the original game mechanics will still be the same, but I've tweaked them a bit and essentially created a subset of rules dealing with the first breakaway attempt of the stage (somewhere in the first 12 km). As to the climbs and sprints, if no breakaways occur, then I'm going to alter climber and sprinter ratings during the course of the stage to increase the likelyhood the same riders accumulate the points (in essence, they're riding at the front of the Peloton or even in a slight breakaway ahead of it, but in game terms, it's not significant enough to track independently).

So, with new changes in hand, we return to Liege, Belgium on July 4, 2004 and the beginning of stage one.

[Wolfpack]

(Stage one is being re-run with new game mechanics. Forget this and following posts ever existed.)

[MIJB#19]

I'll do the team standings at another time. Can someone clarify for me whether the times for team standings take into account bonus times by individual riders? My suspicion is yes, but I want to be sure.Team standings are based on the top three individual stage times of the top three riders per team. Basically it means every rider can contribute in the stage fitting them best. Climbers help out in mountain stages, time trialists in time trials and the offensive riders in stages where they finish ahead of the bunch. It also means that not always the team with the three best individual riders for the 'yellow jersey' wins the team rankings.

[Wolfpack]

Thanks. I'm already aware of the "three best" rule from the FAQ on the Tour de France website. What I was driving at was, say for example a rider completes a stage in 4 hours. He gets a 20 second bonus which effectively makes the time 3:59:40. Does that 20 second bonus count in team standings or is it 4 hours for the team? I suppose I could go to the TDF website and do some math, but I'm being lazy about it.

[Wolfpack]

Never mind the question. I added up last year's times for Ag2r for the first two stages (because their rider won stage one in real life) and the times do not include any "bonuses" for sprints or finishes in the total. That's a good thing because it makes my job easier. Team standings will be posted momentarily.

[MIJB#19]

Thanks. I'm already aware of the "three best" rule from the FAQ on the Tour de France website. What I was driving at was, say for example a rider completes a stage in 4 hours. He gets a 20 second bonus which effectively makes the time 3:59:40. Does that 20 second bonus count in team standings or is it 4 hours for the team? I suppose I could go to the TDF website and do some math, but I'm being lazy about it.Well, the point is that the bonus seconds only apply to the classement general (yellow jersey) and not to the individual stage time. I guess I wasn't clear about it enough. I see you found the solution afterall. Now keep posting so I've got something to read. ;)

[Northwood_DK]

What have happend to the Danish team CSC?

[Wolfpack]

How do you mean? Right now they're sitting in fourth in the team standings. Are you asking about specific riders?

BTW, I tried to run Stage 2 last night, but was unhappy with the outcome. I had another lone-rider breakaway that lasted virtually the entire stage, which I thought was unrealistic, especially for the distance involved, so I'm going to do some jiggering and do it again. If the rider had a 15 minute lead, I could go with it, but the math involved precludes that from ever happening. (Essentially, a lone rider will build up a lead equivalent to the point from the finish at which he made his breakaway, in seconds. E.g. a rider breaks away at 100 km to go. His maximum lead will be 100 seconds.)

[fantastic flying froggies]

BTW, I tried to run Stage 2 last night, but was unhappy with the outcome. I had another lone-rider breakaway that lasted virtually the entire stage, which I thought was unrealistic, especially for the distance involved, so I'm going to do some jiggering and do it again. If the rider had a 15 minute lead, I could go with it, but the math involved precludes that from ever happening. (Essentially, a lone rider will build up a lead equivalent to the point from the finish at which he made his breakaway, in seconds. E.g. a rider breaks away at 100 km to go. His maximum lead will be 100 seconds.)
That is indeed highly unrealistic. A lone rider precisely needs to be ahead by 15 minutes in order to even have a remote chance at winning...

The scenario in your 1st stage would just never happen IRL. I know it's not your fault and the game's designed that way, I'm just saying...

[Wolfpack]

Thanks for the tip. Further jiggering and perhaps a re-run of the first stage may be necessary at this point, then.

Now that I read the rules a bit more closely, the wording in the instructions do not say how big a lead the rider ever achieved, but that that it is the time advantage when the peleton makes a serious attack to close the gap quickly. Therefore, I'm probably reading a bit too much into things. So, theoretically, Leipheimer could have had a very large lead at some point in the stage, but it was whittled down and then the Peloton made a strong push, but too late in the stage, to close the rest of the deficit. Needless to say, it means a blow-by-blow of flat stages is probably not the best way of describing it, since Leipheimer was probably much further ahead than I was describing him, but I don't have an idea how far ahead.

I'll need to consider things some more before going forward. As a matter of fact, I had already worked out alternative methods for breakaways and peloton chases and was considering redoing stage one anyway. However, I may just scrap my redesign and stick with game mechanics and just have a recap of the stage rather than a blow-by-blow of the key points. Ruins the "as-it-happens" feel of things, but without knowing what the maximal buildup was, it's hard to be accurate about it. I suppose I could take the distance left and multiply by six (in Stage 1, this would have yielded a lead of 192.5*6=1155 seconds or 19:15 at maximum), which is what the lead time would be at the time of the Peloton's attack if there were six riders in the breakaway.

How often do solo breaks occur and more importantly, how big do the leads get? I would gather they occur rarely and that leads shouldn't get that large because the rider is alone and therefore has to exert a lot of effort to build and maintain his lead.

[fantastic flying froggies]

How often do solo breaks occur and more importantly, how big do the leads get? I would gather they occur rarely and that leads shouldn't get that large because the rider is alone and therefore has to exert a lot of effort to build and maintain his lead.
Solo breaks are indeed fairly unusual. What you will get (at least in the early stages) is a fairly large group of riders, ten or a dozen or so, from many different teams and, a very important fact, riders that are not perceived as dangerous by the leaders. These guys will typically ride 10-15 minutes in front of a pack which rides 'slowly'.
Near the end of the stage, say the last 50 or so klicks, depending on the distance, the sprinter teams will then decide to go and pursuit or let it be. They usually do pursuit and it is an impressive sight when you see roughly 15 guys riding full speed ahead and closing the gap on the poor tired guys in front...

[Wolfpack]

I've worked out a new process for flat stages. Does the following sound plausible? Bear in mind, we're using 2d6 read left-right rather than added in most of these situations.

A breakaway occurs and reaches a maximum time point, at which time, the peloton gradually reduces it to a managable deficit. If the distance left in the stage at the time of the breakaway is 132 km or more, the peloton will make a strong effort sometime between 77-132 km to catch up. Failing that, the peloton will make a second effort sometime between 11-66 km to catch up. Failing that, the breakaway riders succesfully keep whatever lead they have left to win the stage. If the breakaway comes with under 132 km to go, the peloton will only get one chance, between 11-66 km to go, to catch the breakaway. If the breakaway is caught by the peloton progressing at a certain rate, a new breakaway attempt is made, otherwise, the riders all advance as a peloton to the finish (I've tried to provision for the small chance that someone could make a push late, or is this unrealistic?). The reason I figured on a pair of attempts was because stage one in 2004 had the peloton catch the breakaway at 70 km, something that wouldn't be possible if the peloton started attacking at 66 km at best. Solo breakaways are still possible, but the odds are significantly better if those occur after 132 km to go since the peloton only has one chance to cut the lead down.

It's a lot more math than the game designer had, but his way had the possibility of a rider breaking away at, say, 67 km (if all prior attempts failed, it could be done), but then the peloton would attack at 66 km if the dice rolled the right way. This would mean the attacker would get a 67 second lead in 1 km. Granted, the end result is the same and that an attack at 67 km would have been caught by a peloton chasing at 66 km, but the actual events surrounding breakaway and capture would have been totally bizarre. In the original rules, the attack starts at 67 km, builds a 67 second lead, then the peloton attacks at 66 km and catches the attacker at 32.9 km (((66*6)-67)/10). In my revised edit, the attack goes off at 67, the rider builds up a 6 second lead in half a kilometer before the peloton starts reeling in and then attacks at 66 km and captures the rider by 65.5 km. (There's a lot of math steps going on in my part that I'm leaving out to limit confusion and length.)

Sounds reasonable?

Alternately, there could be just one peloton attack at a distance of 45-100 km to go, succeed or fail, no new breakaways and no second chances for the peloton.

[MIJB#19]

That is indeed highly unrealistic. A lone rider precisely needs to be ahead by 15 minutes in order to even have a remote chance at winning...

The scenario in your 1st stage would just never happen IRL. I know it's not your fault and the game's designed that way, I'm just saying...I kinda of disagree, it still happens once every x-times, but it also depends on who it is. Had it been, say, Erik Dekker or Magnus Backstedt (to name a few breakaway specialists) I would have bought it. But with the guy being Levi Leipheimer, it's not realistic, in real life the US Postal train would have grabbed Levi in no-time.

[Wolfpack]

That's true. Leipheimer was a bit of a freakish roll. When determining breakaway riders, the odds are highly stacked for those who are known breakaway riders. There is a percentage chance (1-in-6) that the roll will send you to a different chart reading where you roll against all the key riders in the race (those that are basically part of every stage--flat, time trial, mountain) and it is here where Leipheimer's name came up. Even that was flukish because the key riders only have a small percentage of being chosen with the second roll (usually 1-in-36, such as Leipheimer), the vast majority going to further rolls to choose someone else left beyond the breakaway specialists and key riders (who only participates in the breakaway if someone from the first two groups does). After the riders are determined, there is another roll done for each rider to determine whether they got away successfully or not. Leipheimer rolled low and got away, while the other rider failed his breakaway chance and got caught. Thus, Leipheimer had a 1-in-216 chance of being selected for the breakaway and then had about 50/50 for the actual breakaway success. Basically it was 1-in-512 he got away.

At any rate, after some consideration, I'm leaning towards a "one chance" chase by the peloton starting at between 45-100 km to go. If the initial breakaway fails to occur (it could happen) until after 45 km to go, then the peloton chase will be between 11-66 km to go, which pretty much means it'll be a 50/50 chance that the peloton will immediately pounce on the breakaway and cut it off.

[Wolfpack]

I've continued to tinker with the system and have come to change a lot of what goes on, based on input from everyone here. Essentially, the only thing that's remained the same from the original rules is the selection of breakaway riders (simply because there's no evidence anything is unrealistic there, save perhaps that I can't really think of a time that Armstrong or Ullrich would attack on a flat stage, since they would rather do their attacks in the mountains, though their selection would again be a 1-in-216 chance).

The original rules allowed for a maximum of six attackers in a breakaway. I've changed that to eleven (sum 2d6, subtract 1). Breakaway riders now break as a group, rather than individuals (i.e. one breakaway check for all in a group, bonuses for average breakaway rating of group and group size). Also, the buildup and chase by the peloton is completely redone as I had previously described.

Here is an example of stage one that I just rolled:

Stage 1 (July 4, 2004)--Liege to Charleroi, 202.5 km
Initial breakaway at 7 km (195.5 km to go)
Number of riders to ID = 12-1 = 11
# 1=31=Lotz/Rabobank (+2)
# 2=51=Voeckler/BLB (+5)
# 3=23=Flecha/Fassa Bortolo (+4)
# 4=55=Voigt/CSC (+3)
# 5=14=Casar/FD Jeux (+3)
# 6=45=Piil/CSC (+4)
# 7=32=Lotz (IGNORE)
# 8=24=Kroon/Rabobank (+2)
# 9=62=>53=>21=Elminger (0)
#10=44=Piil (IGNORE)
#11=55=Voigt (IGNORE)
8 riders in breakaway, average breakaway rating = 23/8 = 2.875 = 3, group modifer = +11
Breakaway range is 41-(19+11) = 41-8 = 25, so 11-25
Breakaway roll is 21, breakaway succeeds
195.5-90 = 105.5/2 = 52.75+90 = 142.75 is halfway
52.75*19 = 1002.25 seconds, or 16:42 lead at 142.75 km to go
52.75*6 = 316.5 seconds, or 5:17 gained by peloton by 90 km to go
1002.25-316.5 = 685.75, or 11:26 is remaining lead at 90 km to go
Peloton gain rate = 10.5 s/km
90*10.5 = 945 > 685.75, breakaway caught
Breakaway caught at 945-685.75 = 259.25/10.5 = 24.7 km to go


(Do note that some of this math is base-6 math, so if you see "41-8 = 25", that's actually right. Subtracting 8 from 41 in base-6 results in 25.)

[Wolfpack]

A little more tinkering, a little more hacksawing. Sorry for the wait on getting this going again. At this point, I am going to redo stage 1 based on what the new mechanics for flat stages are. Stay tuned.

[Wolfpack]

9 km
A pack of four riders makes a break for it. They are identified as Jens Voigt, Inigo Landlaluze, Juan Antonio Flecha, and Jacob Piil. However, the peloton recognizes the challenge presented by the breakaway riders and puts down the gears to bring them back into the group as they make the first climb of the day to the Cote de Florze.

[Wolfpack]

15 km
The peloton makes the first climb of the tour, the Cote de Florze. It's a 1.2 km climb over a 5% grade making it a Category 4.

Right away, someone drops back of the Peloton and has to get assistance from the team car. It's Julian Dean (Credit Agricole), who seems to be having a lot of trouble with his bike. While he's getting work done, the Peloton moves on towards the top of the climb.

As the riders come up to the line, one goes down fairly hard. It's Yuriy Krivtsov (Ag2r). He seems to be a little bloody and bruised, but is otherwise okay. He should be able to catch up with the Peloton on the next climb.

As for this climb, the first one to crest the top and get the first King of the Mountain points of 2004 is...Axel Merckx (Lotto-Domo). A couple of wheel-lengths back is Richard Virenque (Quick Step) and in third is Ivan Basso (Team CSC).

The riders now descend before beginning the next climb of stage one, ending on the Cote de Awan, six kilometers away.

[Wolfpack]

21 km
The peloton works its way up the Cote de Awan for the second climb of the day. This one measures out at 1.8 km over 4.1%, another Category 4.

Just as his Ag2r teammates work Yuriy Krivtsov, bloodied knees and all back to the peloton, bad luck strikes his team for the second time today. This time, teammate Nicolas Portal suffers a tire flat. The support car comes along and supplies a new wheel, but he's out of the running for this climb as his teammates motor on without him.

At the top, Axel Merckx continues to lead the charge, picking up his second straight King of the Mountain win. Just behind in second place is Denis Menchov (Banesto). Ag2r finally gets some good news as Laurent Brochard makes it into third place at the line and scores a point for himself.

The peloton will continue on up the slope to the town of My and then descend to Fernieres at the base of the next climb, the Cote de Werbomont.

[Wolfpack]

33.5 km
The third climb of the day in just the first 33.5 km of the stage comes at the Cote de Werbomont. This is a 1.8 km climb with a 4.4% grade, making it a Category 4.

The peloton chugs up the Cote de Werbomont. No casualties have occurred to the riders since the puncture by Nicolas Portal back at the base of the Cote de Awan. Julian Dean is still working to catch up to the peloton since his bike failure on the first climb. Otherwise, the gang's all here.

This time a different set of three lead the peloton over the line. Michael Rasmussen (Rabobank) cranks out the effort and gets to the line first to earn three points. In second is...Jan Ullrich (T-Mobile), who seems to be putting forth a little bit of energy to send Armstrong a message that the Prologue will not be how he performs the entire Tour. Coming on his wheel for third is Jens Voigt (Team CSC).

The peloton will continue to climb to Harre and then level off for a bit before climbing to the highest point on Stage 1, Samree at 529 meters, 59.5 km into the stage (26 km from here). They will then descend rapidly to La Rouche-en-Ardenne, dropping 300 meters in 9 km. From there, the course flattens considerably for about 30 km. There will be a food station at Rendeux-Bas. The riders will roll through Grandhan and arrive at Durbuy, where they will begin the toughest climb of the day, to the Cote de Borlon, 68 km from where they are now.

[Wolfpack]

40 km
As the riders crest the hill and come into My, Jens Voigt makes a break for it, but it isn't a good one and he is quickly reeled in.

[Wolfpack]

83 km
The rain is now coming down on the riders as they grab their food in Rendeux-Bas. Just east of the village, a trio of riders makes another attempt to get away. The riders are Paolo Bettini (Quick Step), Jakob Piil (Team CSC), and Juan Antonio Flecha (Fassa Bortolo). However, the Peloton is not in a giving mood today for whatever reason and the breakaway attempt is snuffed out.

[Wolfpack]

101.5 km
The toughest climb of the day has come for the peloton. The Cote de Borlon climb is 4.4 km in length over a 4.4% grade. Not a horrible climb, but it is a Category 3.

Snagging first this time and getting four points for his effort is Laurent Brochard, giving him five total KoM points so far today. Axel Merckx comes in second, which isn't much of a surprise. What is is who he edged out in third...Lance Armstrong! Apparently he got Ullrich's message on the last climb and decided he'd answer back on the big climb of the day. Fourth place is awfully close between Thomas Voeckler (La Boulangere) and Mario Cipollini (Domina Vacanze). So close, in fact, that they will call it a tie and award both riders a point!

No rest for the peloton, though. While they've topped the biggest climb of the day, their last climb now comes at them in just a few kilometers at the Cote de Ocquier.

[Wolfpack]

107 km
The final climb of the day arrives for the peloton, but one rider won't be joining it. Christophe Brandt (Lotto-Domo) suffers a flat. He's able to get a spare and get going again, but he won't be a factor in the climb. The climb itself is the Cote de Ocquier, a 1.4 km climb over a 4.4% grade, a Category 4.

Axel Merckx continues to have a good day in the saddle as he racks up his third climbing victory in the five climbs of the stage and is going to be the first rider to wear the polka-dot jersey when Stage 2 goes off tomorrow. Coming in second is Giuseppe Guerini (T-Mobile) and the final KoM points of the day go to Denis Menchov (Banseto).

With the climbs over with, the sprinters will now begin to assert themselves as there are three sprint checkpoints in the coming kilometers. First on the docket is the sprint line in Modave, about 7.5 km from the Cote de Ocquier.

[Wolfpack]

114.5 km
The riders continue on in the rain to Modave and the first intermediate sprint line. The slick roads, however, claim a victim. Gerrit Glomser (Saeco) loses control of his bike and goes down hard. He's a bit bloodied, but okay. However, he's effectively out of things for the moment.

At the front, the sprinters, which had been shackled by the earlier climbs in the stage, now bring their talents to bear. Getting to the line first is...Stuart O'Grady (Cofidis). He edges out second place Jerome Pineau (La Boulangere) by nearly a full wheel-length. Coming in third is sprint master Robbie McEwen. All three pick up green jersey points, and more importantly, the equivalent time bonuses that will help them in the general classification standings.

The peleton now rolls downhill towards the next sprint finish in the town of Wanze, 18 km away. Time is running out for a breakaway to occur.

[Wolfpack]

115 km
Just outside of Modave, a breakaway attempt is made. A trio of riders go for it. They are Fabian Cancellara (Fassa Bortolo), Egoi Martinez (Euskaltel), and Thomas Voeckler (La Boulangere). This time, the breakaway succeeds. The riders work together superbly and build up a substantial lead. They'll be comfortably ahead by the time the next sprint finsh comes in Wanze.

[Wolfpack]

132.5 km
In the 17 km since the breakaway, the three lead riders have managed to build up a three-minute lead on the peloton and are by their lonesome to contest the sprint points in Wanze. Getting to the line first is Cancellara, ahead by two-and-a-half wheel lengths of Martinez. Voeckler gets third.

The peloton steams into Wanze without incident, but well back of the leading riders. The next sprint line is located in Eghezee, 22 km from Wanze. The leaders should be able to keep their lead through that point, but when and how the peloton will close is still unknown at this point.

[Wolfpack]

154.5 km
The lead group's lead has stabilized at around 4:00-4:10 over the last several kilometers, so the peloton will have some work to do if they want to catch up.

At any rate, the trio of leaders come into Eghezee and this time, Martinez beats out Cancellara for the top honor with Voeckler again bringing up the rear of the group.

Further back, Isidro Nozal (Liberty Seguros) develops mechanical problems with his bike and drops back of the peloton. He's going to have to get a new one, it seems, before he can go on. Meanwhile, the peloton peddles on, though at least the rain has stopped. The countdown now begins for when the peloton will make its gambit to catch the leaders.

[Wolfpack]

187.5 km
The peleton started making serious efforts to catch the leaders at about the 37 km mark. Since that time, they've taken a decent hunk out of the lead held by the head riders, cutting the lead in half by the time the lead group has reached the town of Farciennes, just 15 km from home. The peloton has really picked it up, though, in the last couple of kilometers and if they can maintain the pace, they have a chance of catching the leaders at the wire.

[Wolfpack]

201.5 km
The peloton continues its ruthless pursuit of the lead group and it looks like they'll be swallowed up just in time. The trio of riders has just passed under the 1 km banner, but nipping right on their heals are the lead sprinters from the peloton and they should catch the front runners very shortly.

[Wolfpack]

201.7 km (800 meters to go)
The breakaway is over. The peloton has finally caught the lead sprinters and now it'll be a dash to the finish contested by the lead sprinters of the peloton. So close, yet so far.

[Wolfpack]

202.5 km (Finish)
The sprinters are going like hell for the finish line now. At the end, a familiar face grabs first place. It's Robbie McEwen (Lotto-Domo), who picks up the 35 points and 20 second time bonus for first. He bests Thor Hushovd (Credit Agricole) by three-and-a-half wheel lengths. Another three wheel lengths back is Jean-Patrick Nazon (Ag2r), who nabs the final place on the podium over Stuart O'Grady.

One rider suffers a terrible break in the midst of the run to the finish. Mario Cippolini gets a busted tire and watches helplessly as the peloton roars past. He is able to peddle his way through and get over the line, but at the back of the pack and his mechanic's going to have work to do tonight.

[Wolfpack]

Stage 1 Results

1 Robbie McEwen Lotto-Domo 4.40.27
2 Thor Hushovd Credit Agricole
3 Jean-Patrick Nazon Ag2r
4 Stuart O'Grady Cofidis
5 Danilo Hondo Gerolsteiner
6 Tom Boonen Quick Step
7 Erik Zabel T-Mobile
8 Mario Cipollini Domina Vacanze
9 Jerome Pineau La Boulangere
10 Janek Tombak Cofidis


Overall standings after Stage 1
Yellow Jersey (Overall individual)

1 Thor Hushovd Credit Agricole 4.47.15
2 Fabian Cancellara Fassa Bortolo
3 Jose I. Gutierrez Banesto - 0.08
4 Lance Armstrong US Postal - 0.10
5 Nicolas Jalabert Phonak - 0.11
6 George Hincapie US Postal - 0.12
7 Jens Voigt Team CSC - 0.13
8 Angel Vicioso Liberty Seguros - 0.14
9 Levi Leipheimer Rabobank - 0.15
10 Christophe Moreau Credit Agricole - 0.16


Green Jersey (Points)

1 Robbie McEwen Lotto - Domo 37
2 Thor Hushovd Credit Agricole 36
3 Stuart O'Grady Cofidis 30
4 Jean-Patrick Nazon Ag2r 26
5 Jerome Pineau La Boulangere 22
Danilo Hondo Gerolsteiner 22
7 Fabian Cancellara Fassa Bortolo 21
8 Tom Boonen Quick Step 20
9 Erik Zabel T-Mobile 19
10 Janek Tombak Cofidis 17


Polka-Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains)

1 Axel Merckx Lotto - Domo 12
2 Laurent Brochard Ag2r Prevoyance 5
3 Michael Rasmussen Rabobank 3
4 Denis Menchov Banesto 2
Giuseppe Guerini T-Mobile 2
Lance Armstrong US Postal 2
Jan Ullrich T-Mobile 2
Richard Virenque Quick Step 1
9 Thomas Voeckler La Boulangere 1
Jens Voigt Team CSC 1
Ivan Basso Team CSC 1
Igor Gonzalez Liberty Seguros 1


White Jersey (Young Rider)

1 Fabian Cancellara Fassa Bortolo 4.47.15
2 Benjamin Noval USPS - 0.18
Bernhard Eisel FD Jeux.com
4 Jimmy Engoulvent Cofidis - 0.21
5 Tom Boonen Quick Step - 0.22
Vladimir Karpets Banesto
7 Sebastian Lang Gerolsteiner - 0.23
8 Mark Scanlon Ag2r - 0.27
9 Sandy Casar FD Jeux.com - 0.28
10 Sylvain Chavanel La Boulangere - 0.29


Team Standings

1 USPS 14.22.25
2 Phonak - 0.08
3 Team CSC - 0.14
4 Fassa Bortolo - 0.17
5 Banesto - 0.18
6 Rabobank - 0.24
7 FD Jeux.com - 0.25
8 Euskaltel-Euskadi - 0.29
Credit Agricole
10 T-Mobile - 0.35

[Wolfpack]

Stage 2 (July 5)--Charleroi to Namur (197 km)

Out in the hills again, with the riders heading into France for 50 kilometres, before heading back towards Namur in Belgium on a different route to the previous stage. For an easier ride today, the riders can hope for a still day as the roads are narrow and the straights are long. The riders will skirt around Meuse for the last 15 kilometres before finishing right in the centre of Namur. One last bend in the road around, 200 metres out, marks the start of the final straight, where we test the riders' ability to sprint. This may be where we finally see sprinters such as Alessandro Petacchi, Robbie McEwen and Baden Cooke show their form.

Route map:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/images/maps/Map_Stage2.gif

Route profile:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/images/profiles/Profile_Stage2.gif

Thor Hushovd gained enough bonus time for his stage finish that he grabbed the yellow jersey from Fabian Cancellara by fractions of a second based on the prologue time trial. He stands to have a good chance of retaining it as this stage is a considerably flatter one than stage one with only a pair of Category 4 climbs and plenty of sprint chances.

[Wolfpack]

7 km (Cote de l'M de Bomeree)
The peloton stays together from the start through this first of two climbs today. This climb measures out at 2 km over a 4.2% grade, a Category 4 that should get the blood pumping some and get everyone warmed up.

Getting to the top first is Jose Azevedo (USPS) who puts in a strong effort to get his first KoM points of the tour. Behind him, Ivan Basso (Team CSC) nabs two points for second place, and then the man wearing the polka-dot jersey today, Axel Merckx takes third.

Almost immediately afterwards, several riders in the peloton surge forward in a jailbreak. A pack of seven emerges and tries to go for a breakaway, but the peloton recognizes the threat and keeps the breakaway in check, bringing them back to the pack in short order.

With the climb out of the way, the ride flattens out. The peloton will descend from Rouveroy to Mons as the stage moves towards the coast. Mons, in 46 km, is where the next chance to earn points is located, a sprint line for green jersey and bonus times.

[Wolfpack]

31 km
Just outside of the town of Merbes-le-Chateau, another large pack of riders attempts a getaway. This time, six riders are going for it. This time, they succeed. The riders in the breakaway pack are identified as: Jens Voigt (Team CSC), Jacob Piil (Team CSC), David Moncoutie (Cofidis), Juan Antonio Flecha (Fassa Bortolo), Christophe Laurent (RAGT), and Marc Lotz (Rabobank). Their escape means likely that most of the points for the green jersey and polka-dot jersey will be contested among themselves for the remainder of the stage. However, the peloton will obviously make an attempt to reel them in by the finish line like what happened yesterday in stage 1.

[Wolfpack]

53 km (Mons)
The breakaway works their advantage quickly up. By the time they reach Mons, the six frontrunners have built their advantage to over four minutes and climbing. The two teammates in the group, Team CSC's Jens Voigt and Jacob Piil, push ahead of the rest of the riders for the line. Piil is able to get there first, followed by Voigt. In third is David Moncoutie, who just edges out Christophe Laurent for the last points and time bonus available. Several minutes later, the peloton rolls through Mons.

The stage will eventually turn south and back inland. The riders will get a chance to grab some food in Bas-Lieu, near the halfway point of the stage. After that comes the next sprint to contest, in Beaumont at the 128 km mark of the stage, just 69 km from the finish.

[Wolfpack]

128 km (Beaumont)
The breakaway has been working well together over the past 75 km, with their lead peaking out at around 6:20 about 50 km ago, and generally holding between 6:00 and 6:15 since then. Team CSC riders Voigt and Piil again work to try to get to the front, but the other riders aren't having it. Voigt is able to get to the line first for the second consecutive CSC win, but both Flecha and Laurent are able to surge past Piil in the last meters to claim the next two places.

As the peloton moves towards Beaumont, a rider goes down. It is Bernhard Eisel (FD Jeux). However, it doesn't look like it was a bad fall and Eisel, after getting up and gathering himself, gives a brief once over of the bike and also gets a check from the team car. He gets back under way, but he's got work to do to try to catch the peloton. He'll also have to hope the peloton doesn't start attacking the breakaway before he catches up.

Up next for the riders is the second and last climb of the day, at the Cote de Silenrieux, which is about 13.5 km from Beaumont and 56 km from the finish line.

[Wolfpack]

141.5 km (Cote de Silenrieux)
The peloton still hasn't made an aggressive move yet to cut into the large lead of the breakaway, though it'll probably happen once this climb is over. Still, the front six are clear by around six minutes with 56.5 km to go, so the peloton needs to get going very shortly if they want to catch up.

As for this climb up the Cote de Silenrieux, it is a very sharp climb, 6.9%, but only over 1.1 km, which grades it out as a Category 4. The two CSC riders, Voigt and Piil continue to work well together and this time they claim the first two places, Piil in first and Voigt second. Coming in third and taking the last KoM points of the day is David Moncoutie.

As the peloton makes its climb, Vladimir Karpets (Banesto) develops problems with his bike and has to wait for the team car to get him a new one. With the peloton expected to attack any time now, it is a very costly breakdown as it'll make it unlikely that he'll catch up to the peloton before the finish.

With the last climb of the day now over, the riders are now going to turn north and begin to go east of the day's starting point in Charleroi. At the 159 km mark (38 km to go), they'll reach the last sprint point of the day, in Florennes. The breakaway has too substantive an advantage for the peloton to make up before then, so it's another opportunity for points and bonus times for the frontrunners.

[Wolfpack]

159 km (Florennes)
As expected, the peloton is now attacking the front runners. They've now cut the lead down to around 4:45 and continue to eat away at the deficit. It's still unknown whether they have enough road to catch all the way up, though.

As for the frontrunners, for once, the CSC riders are not controlling the pack as they come to Florennes. Juan Antonio Flecha puts in the strong effort and takes first place by a couple of wheel-lengths. The battle for the remaining two spots is incredibly close, though, as Marc Lotz noses past Jens Voigt for second (his first green jersey points today), who in turn crossed just a fraction ahead of David Moncoutie for third place. Voigt is the only rider in the breakaway to successfully get points at all three intermediate sprints. Add to that his second place finish on the Cote de Silenrieux and he's probably having the best day in the saddle of anyone.

Further back in the peloton, a wicked accident has occurred that has knocked down a pair of riders. Getting the worst by far is Gian Matteo Fagnini (Domina Vacanze). The accident also claimed Bert Grabsch (Phonak) and avoiding it caused problems to the bike of Mikel Pradera (Banesto). Grabsch is able to gather himself and get going again, while Pradera has to get a new bike. With the peloton now speeding in pursuit, it is unlikely either one of those riders will catch up before the the finish.

However, all attention is focused on Fagnini. An ambulance has come for him, which pretty much signifies the end of his appearance in this year's tour. He's able to sit up, but clearly, he's not going any further as word is coming down he broke his collarbone in the fall. He joins Nick Gates (Lotto-Domo), who was badly injured in a fall in Stage 1, on the sideline. Gates gamely fought on through his pain, but didn't finish the stage before the cutoff time and was eliminated.

(Note: I didn't realize until reading the updates for stage two that Gates had been eliminated in stage one. Since Gates wasn't among the leaders, it's not really mattered much, so I'm just reporting it after-the-fact.)

[Wolfpack]

197 km (Namur)
The peloton continued to chip away at the lead, but didn't gobble it up quite fast enough. The peloton managed to catch sight of the breakaway riders as the finish line approached, but they were still too far back to effectively close the gap and force a bunched finish. So, the six riders at the front contested the stage victory.

It was a great finish, a photo-finish to be sure. Flecha, Piil, and Moncoutie were the ones making the attack as they closed on the line and at the end, no one could tell just by initial glance who won. The only thing certain was that Moncoutie came in third, about a wheel-and-a-half back of the two leaders. Voigt beat out Lotz for fourth place by a wheel length. Finally, Christophe Laurent finished in sixth, but was far enough behind the leaders that he gave up a second on the clock. After a few minutes, with the photo produced, race officials gave the stage win to Flecha, who *just* nosed out Piil by what amounted to a width of a tire. Flecha's final stage time was 4:18:43, awarded to the remaining breakaway riders aside from Laurent, who lost the second and had 4:18:44.

The final margin ended up being eleven seconds from the time Flecha broke the line to when the main body of the peloton came charging across. Erik Zabel (T-Mobile) managed to nip Robbie McEwen (Lotto-Domo) at the line for seventh place and leader of the peloton. Stuart O'Grady (Cofidis) grabbed ninth, and a superb sprint effort by Kim Kirchen (Fassa Bortolo) gave him tenth.

The peloton's finish was not completely incident free, though. Alessandro Pettachi (Fassa Bortolo) was a strong contender coming in, but suffered a slipped chain and dropped back into the main body of the peloton, coasting into the finish. Further back, Michele Scarponi (Domina Vacanze) took a bad spill. He got back up, but by then the peloton had long since crossed and he wound up giving two minutes to the field.

Flecha's first place finish gives him enough bonus time that he will don the yellow jersey to start the third stage.

[Wolfpack]

Stage 2 Results

1 Juan Antonio Flecha Lotto-Domo 4.18.43
2 Jacob Piil Team CSC
3 David Moncoutie Cofidis
4 Marc Lotz Rabobank
5 Jens Voigt Team CSC
6 Christophe Laurent RAGT - 0.01
7 Erik Zabel T-Mobile - 0.11
8 Robbie McEwen Lotto-Domo
9 Stuart O'Grady Cofidis
10 Kim Kirchen Fassa Bortolo


Overall standings after Stage 2
Yellow Jersey (Overall individual)

1 Juan Antonio Flecha Fassa Bortolo 9.05.45
2 Jens Voigt Team CSC - 0.14
3 Thor Hushovd Credit Agricole - 0.24
4 Fabian Cancellara Fassa Bortolo
5 Jose I. Gutierrez Banesto - 0.42
6 Lance Armstrong US Postal - 0.44
7 Nicolas Jalabert Phonak - 0.45
8 George Hincapie US Postal - 0.46
9 Jacob Piil Team CSC - 0.48
10 Angel Vicioso Liberty Seguros


Green Jersey (Points)

1 Robbie McEwen Lotto-Domo 55
2 Stuart O'Grady Cofidis 47
3 Juan Antonio Flecha Fassa Bortolo 45
4 Jean-Patrick Nazon Ag2r Prevoyance 40
5 Jens Voigt Team CSC 38
Erik Zabel T-Mobile 38
7 Jacob Piil Team CSC 36
Thor Hushovd Credit Agricole 36
9 Tom Boonen Quick Step 35
Jerome Pineau La Boulangere 35


Polka-Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains)

1 Axel Merckx Lotto-Domo 13
2 Laurent Brochard Ag2r Prevoyance 5
3 Michael Rasmussen Rabobank 3
Ivan Basso Team CSC 3
Jose Azevedo US Postal 3
Jens Voigt Team CSC 3
Jacob Piil Team CSC 3
8 Denis Menchov Banesto 2
Giuseppe Guerini T-Mobile 2
Lance Armstrong US Postal 2
Jan Ullrich T-Mobile 2
Richard Virenque Quick Step 2


White Jersey (Young Rider)

1 Fabian Cancellara Fassa Bortolo 9.06.09
2 Benjamin Noval USPS - 0.18
Bernhard Eisel FD Jeux.com
4 Jimmy Engoulvent Cofidis - 0.21
5 Tom Boonen Quick Step - 0.22
6 Sebastian Lang Gerolsteiner - 0.23
7 Mark Scanlon Ag2r - 0.27
8 Sandy Casar FD Jeux.com - 0.28
9 Sylvain Chavanel La Boulangere - 0.29
10 Jerome Pineau La Boulangere


Team Standings

1 Team CSC 27.18.59
2 USPS - 0.08
3 Fassa Bortolo - 0.14
4 Phonak - 0.16
5 Rabobank - 0.21
6 Banesto - 0.26
7 FD Jeux.com - 0.33
8 Euskaltel-Euskadi - 0.37
Credit Agricole
10 Cofidis - 0.39

[MIJB#19]

The peloton's finish was not completely incident free, though. Alessandro Pettachi (Fassa Bortolo) was a strong contender coming in, but suffered a slipped chain and dropped back into the main body of the peloton, coasting into the finish. Further back, Michele Scarponi (Domina Vacanze) took a bad spill. He got back up, but by then the peloton had long since crossed and he wound up giving two minutes to the field.Just a question and a friendly reminder of a special rule: Did Scarponi fall in the last kilometre? If so, he should get the time of the peleton (providing he was part of the peleton when he fell).

By the way, Voigt and Piil, as teammates have played that stage very bad, a 2 out of 6 situation and not winning is a bad result. Not to mention how they didn't get the yellow jersey around Voigt's body. ;)

[Wolfpack]

Alas, I don't know if I can wring out that kind of detail about locations of accidents. Really, there's no provision for what I'm doing in the rules. In the game's rules, I'm only supposed to get incidents whenever rated riders attempt something like a breakaway, a sprint finish, or whatnot. I am using Excel to help create incidents among the field (it's easier to have a spreadsheet throw 188 2d6 than me doing each one individually) during the race and making those checks whenever something is being contested. I'm still not totally satisfied with the system, but within the constraints of the game structure, it at least adds some degree of randomness to the situation, whereas if I didn't have it, essentially there would be no incidents to speak of, except among key riders at certain moments.

I suppose it could be argued that his accident happened in the last km since the incident check occured at the finish of the race (he's a poorly rated sprinter, so I made the assumption he was just riding along in the pack and something odd happened to dump him, so I sent him to the general incident chart rather than the sprint finish chart).

As for the Voigt-Piil thing, thanks for the tidbit. I may add bonuses to teammates in a breakaway next time for sprint/KoM finishes. Essentially, it's just rating+2d6 to determine winnners, with no consideration for teammates helping each other. Perhaps the bonus could be +(number of teammates), so that if two teammates were in a breakaway (like Voigt and Piil), both would get +2 to the roll, three riders would get +3 each, and so forth.

Other than these quibbles, do things seem to be handling themselves a bit more realistically this go-around? They seem to be from my perspective. This next stage should be a challenge, though, because the game's creator has special rules for getting a lot of people in trouble with the cobblestones. I'm probably going to tweak what he's got slightly (he provisions no breakaways at all can occur until 25 km to go, but if you look at the "gaps" replay on the TDF website, it'll show a two-rider break that lasted most of the stage, with Lance's secondary group riding herd on the peloton to reduce incidents).

BTW, I haven't got a good fix on how well riders recover from trouble. The incident charts make provisions for how much time should be lost at the end of the stage, but I've read often enough of riders getting in trouble, but being able to rejoin the peloton in reasonable time. I've generally ignored time lost unless the incident occured after the peloton made the attack to catch the breakaway, in which case the rider who got dropped would have a much more difficult time trying to get caught up. I still don't think it's quite right, though.

[MIJB#19]

:)
I tried to play along with the Voigt and Piil thing. I suppose it's hard to make dice rolls represent reality very well. In the group of six, in real life you'd expect breakaway attempts and the teammates to either (1) make an attempt one by one, the second guy attacking once the first is caught again or (2) have one keep the group together to have the second one win the bunch sprint. But seeing the time margin with the peleton, that might not have happened anyway.

For the incidents chart, I've honestly got no idea what to suggest to help you a bit to make it more realistic. And the cobblestone stage will be really hard to simulate realistically this way.

[Wolfpack]

It is difficult to totally replicate the Tour with just dice rolls. I could add all sorts of mechanics (if I understood them well enough) to make the replay even more accurate, like secondary breakaways, or teammate attacks at the finish like you describe, but then we really begin to bog down the progress and it begins to feel like we're rolling for something to happen every km of a stage. I do think the "teammates" bonus should be adequete enough to represent such efforts in a breakaway group without unduly complicating things. Perhaps add a caviat that guarantees the trailing teammate doesn't finish further back than a wheel-length (basically a pip on the dice)?

At any rate, I'll stick with how I'm doing things for the moment as at least at the top of the leaderboard, things seem to be reasonable. By all means, please continue to contribute and call out things that don't seem quite right. (That goes for all readers)

On to stage three and the dreaded cobblestone roads that ruined a lot of riders' days.

[Wolfpack]

Stage 3 (July 6)--Waterloo to Wasquehal, 210 km

Again, the stage is based on a reasonably flat course. Starting in Belgium, the race will pass through the finishing straight of the Tour of Flanders in Meerbeke, before moving through Geraardsbergen and the famous Muur. The last major town the riders will view in Belgium will be Tournai, before returning to France. The light bikes will be left in the team bus for this stage, with two pave sections totalling 3.5 kilometers giving the Tour a taste of the Paris-Roubaix such an exciting race. Just 25 kilometres from the finish riders will pass through Gruson, and the last pave section, before heading for the 1,400 metre finish straight in Wasquehal.

Stage map:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/images/maps/Map_Stage3.gif

Stage profile:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/images/profiles/Profile_Stage3.gif

After an overnight transfer from Charleroi to Waterloo, the riders again get a pretty flat stage. A pair of climbs, both in the early half, to break up the monotony. What the author above calls "exciting" in terms of rolling over the cobblestones is in fact "terrifying" for the riders themselves to actually do. There will be some tense jockeying beforehand that may claim a few riders at each of the two cobbled sections involved in the stage.

[Alf]

doh, the cobblestones : "Les Pavés !" (french inside)