Full field for Preakness, Giacomo made fourth betting choice in morning line

[QuikSand]

DRF link for the field:
http://www.drf.com/tc/preakness/2005/field.html



Preakness 130 Field
Purse: $1,000,000 added; 1 3/16 miles
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1. Malibu Moonshine S. Hamilton K. Leatherbury 20-1
2. High Fly J. Bailey N. Zito 9-2
3. Noble Causeway G. Stevens N. Zito 10-1
4. Greeley's Galaxy D. Flores W. Stute 15-1
5. Scrappy T R. Dominguez R. Bailes 20-1
6. Hal's Image J. Santos B. Rose 50-1
7. Closing Argument C. Velasquez K. McLaughlin 5-1
8. Galloping Grocer J. Bravo D. Schettino 30-1
9. Wilko C. Nakatani C. Dollase 10-1
10. Sun King R. Bejarano N. Zito 15-1
11. High Limit E. Prado R. Frankel 12-1
12. Afleet Alex J. Rose T. Ritchey 5-2
13. Giacomo M. Smith J. Shirreffs 6-1
14. Going Wild R. Albarado D.W. Lukas 30-1

[QuikSand]

While the morning line doesn't really mean anything, it does reflect the degree of "respect" being given the Derbvy winner - not much.

However, I confess I'm not too wild about the 13 post for Giacomo, and I will almost certainly be bettgin against him. I think HIGH LIMIT is intriguing, especially picking up Prado, and after his very nice workout since the Derby (when he was basically pulled up). I'll also keep an eye on how NOBLE CAUSEWAY is proceeding, thinking maybe he needed a race and will be more tuned up this go-round. (I have a certain history of picking a Derby horse, abandoning him just to see him win the Preakness) I agree that AFLEET ALEX ought to be the race favorite, though.

[mhass]

Damned if I don't get High Limit and High Fly confused. The favored of the two was my choice at the Derby and continues as such in the Preakness.

[bbor]

With a full field of 14 hosses it is obvious that the other trainers/owners think the Derby winner does'nt stand a chance in the Preakness.

I like Wilco in this race and he is at a good price IMHO.

[rkmsuf]

Forget Wilco. He's done and had too many chances.

My bomb is Greeley's Galaxy and would consider Alex, Closing Argument and maybe High Fly in the mix.

I think Giacomo with be thoroughly trounced.

Alex and High Fly will be underlays so put me down for Galaxy and Argument.

[Senator]

Let's see how I can overanalyze yet another Derby race and fail in the progress.

Alex to win. 1 million dollars.

[Passacaglia]

How can you NOT bet on a horse called Sun King?

[Franklinnoble]

Noble Causeway, of course....

[QuikSand]

For fre past performance data from DRF:

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/05preakness.pdf


I think my only bet on this race will be a win bet on HIGH LIMIT, allowing me to ignore NOBLE CAUSEWAY at my own peril.

[rkmsuf]

You'll get your price with High Limit.

Not sure he'll get the correct pace scenario here...lot's of gas to his inside. Maybe Prado can relax him but blinkers on suggests they will be on the engine.

[Blackadar]

After this race, Giacomo will have a whole new career...



http://www.artcove.com/Glue/glue_elmers_jp50.jpg

[Honolulu Blue]

The Preakness looks too contentious for my liking. AFLEET ALEX should win this, but then, he should've won two weeks ago.

I'll take a further look when the odds start coming in, but I'm inclined to look for value elsewhere.

[Suicane75]

I put a large chunk on NC and cover my bases with Wilko and Giacamo. Keep in mind I know nothing about horsies.

[Tigercat]

Did I just see Sun King at 20-1? If there hasn't been some change that has dropped him like a rock, that might be a decent bet. As much as I liked Wilko in the Derby, I dislike him in this race. I don't think it will play to what strengths he has right now.

[TLK]

I know nothing about horse racing....

Went with Wilko at 12-1 ($25)

and Wilko (+110) over Nobel Causeway ($50)

[lynchjm24]

I just got home from the satellite center

$5 exacta box Noble Causeway, Closing Argument, Sun King

$1 Tri Key Afleet Alex with Noble Causeway, Sun King, High Limit, Closing Argument with Noble Causeway, Sun King, High Limit, Closing Argument

$5 Tri Closing Argument/Sun King/Wilco

$10 Win High Fly

[Eaglesfan27]

Exciting final turn.

[QuikSand]

Looks like we all got left behind.

Unbelievable scare for the front two at the turn - on the repolay, it's schocking how close ALEX was to going down.

Best horse won the race today -- NBC's replay did him a lot of justice, it was an excellent ride by Jeremy Rose, once again.

[Wolfpack]

How Afleet Alex remained upright looked like something of a miracle. Those are falls that get horses destroyed if those legs break like twigs.

Speculative questions...if both horses crashed and Giacomo takes the win, would he continue to get disrespected at the Belmont? Further, if he won at Belmont, would his Triple Crown achievement have been tarnished by the Preakness win?

[QuikSand]

Yes and yes, probably. It would be very hard to argue that Giacomo was in position to win at the point of the mishap. If they had tangled, but everyone else just ran around them, and Giacomo ended up winning, there's little doubt that racing experts would be on it like the Zapruder film.

[mhass]

I completely missed the near fall at the turn until I saw the replay, but that was amazing. His finish was almost equally impressive. He had started quite a charge when he stumbled and whether the horse was spooked by the mishap or whether he is just a closer, the finish was very impressive.

[lynchjm24]

It's almost a little annoying that the exacta paid so much.

If ALEX had gone down but not SCRAPPY T what is the outcome after the inquiry, assuming that SCRAPPY T wins?

GIACOMO/SUN KING/HIGH LIMIT?

[QuikSand]

About that, I reckon. That assumes that the spill wouldn't affect any of the horses in those outer paths... Giacomo may have been compromised most of that lot, actually, as I think he was more or less behind the leaders in the 3-4 path at that point.

[Senator]

1 million dollars at 5-2. Not bad.

[Franklinnoble]

Afleet Alex ran like a stud. Best race I've seen all year.

I hope to see him in the Belmont.

[rkmsuf]

What a terrible performance that field gave.

Nobody fired except for Alex and Scrappy T. Alex ran a 112, T around 104 and the rest failed to crack 100 Beyer.

Curious the tactic on High Fly. Broke well from the 2 hole but Bailey took him back and ended up getting screwed 5 wide. Seems to me with blinkers on breaking from the inside the play is fire up into the lead. Considering they went 23/46 that horse could have finished 2nd or 3rd.

[Franklinnoble]

What a terrible performance that field gave.

Nobody fired except for Alex and Scrappy T. Alex ran a 112, T around 104 and the rest failed to crack 100 Beyer.

Curious the tactic on High Fly. Broke well from the 2 hole but Bailey took him back and ended up getting screwed 5 wide. Seems to me with blinkers on breaking from the inside the play is fire up into the lead. Considering they went 23/46 that horse could have finished 2nd or 3rd.
Well, this year's 3yo's are weak. But, then again, that's been the story for the last 20 years or so. Breeders aren't breeding stamina anymore. We're lucky to have thoroughbreds that can walk a mile and a half, much less run it.

[rkmsuf]

Well, this year's 3yo's are weak. But, then again, that's been the story for the last 20 years or so. Breeders aren't breeding stamina anymore. We're lucky to have thoroughbreds that can walk a mile and a half, much less run it.

I don't debate that. If sound I can't see any horse we've seen other than Bellamy Road making much of a race with Alex in the Belmont.

[QuikSand]

I think Alex is a great unknown for the Belmont. Look at his Debry effort -- there' no reason to believe he was unsound or unfit, he took the lead in the stretch, and then basically staggered home for the final quarter, getting caught by a pretty pedestrian effort from the two top finishers.

I don't have a horse that can beat him... not yet. But this is exactly the kind of horse who looks like the best of the lot, but should not be bet with any enthusiasm at the Belmont Stakes. I like Afleet Alex, I think he was the best horse in the field for both races, but I will, in all likelihood, be betting against him in three weeks.

[rkmsuf]

I think in the Derby he suffered much the same fate as Bellamy Road...too close to that pace. He looks like a middle move, one run type and I'm guessing he made his move into a 109 for 6 furlongs.

The pace was much better for him to make that big move again coming in the stretch.

The Belmont is a tricky race though, you are correct. I remember proclaiming that Go For Gin "can't lose" rounding the far turn.

[Tigercat]

I am still quite an idiot when it comes to horse racing, so excuse this question if its based off stupid or incorrect assumptions, but if you lengthen the Preakness track to the length of the Belmont, is it possible that Giacomo makes the race a little more interesting with his late run, or at least make a run for second? I didn't expect Giacomo to finish another race as strongly as he did in the Preakness, but now given that he has again shown the ability to close well and that Belmont is as long of a race as it is, is it too much of a stretch to think that Giacomo will be the horse to challenge Afleet?

[rkmsuf]

I am still quite an idiot when it comes to horse racing, so excuse this question if its based off stupid or incorrect assumptions, but if you lengthen the Preakness track to the length of the Belmont, is it possible that Giacomo makes the race a little more interesting with his late run, or at least make a run for second? I didn't expect Giacomo to finish another race as strongly as he did in the Preakness, but now given that he has again shown the ability to close well and that Belmont is as long of a race as it is, is it too much of a stretch to think that Giacomo will be the horse to challenge Afleet?

Traditionally the Belmont is won with forwardly placed horses. It's a common error(at least IMO) to assume longer distances benefit deep closers.

I attribute Giacomo's 3rd to simply the other horses not firing. He was 10 lengths behind the top 2.

[QuikSand]

While I agree with rkmsuf above, I also will not rule out Giacomo as a contender for the Belmont. If I can't find a forward-placed horse with good distance breeding, my second choice will be a horse with any running style with good distance breeding.

[FishFan]

INDY STORM

[QuikSand]

Well, for this year's Belmont, I will probably try to take a stab at a value pick, but I don't feel al that good about it. ANDROMEDA'S HERO looks like he has the sort of distance breeding that you'd look for (I suspect we'll be seeing a lot of Fusaichi Pegasus get in the next few years) for this race, and while he won't be forwardly placed, if the race falls apart (read: If AFLEET ALEX runs out of gas) somebody has to pick up the pieces. At 15-1 in the morning line, and with others seeming getting more attention (maybe ultimately giving better than the 15?), I guess this is a decent value horse.

I do really like #6 JUDY SODA in Belmont's 4th race, which is my best bet of the day at 5-1. She looks like the best filly in the field, running much better after taking blinkers off at the start of this year, and is in against a nominal favorite who is inexplicably stretching out from a comfy 6f to an unknown 1 1/16 miles.