2006 World Cup Preliminary Groupings

[21C]

The actual allocation of groups for next year's Cup will occur on Friday but I just found out that a preliminary grouping of teams has occured to seed some teams before the draw takes place. Each of the 8 World Cup groups will have one team from each group below.

The top 8 seeds are : Brazil, Germany, England, Italy, Argentina, France, Spain and Mexico.

Asia/CONCACAF: Iran, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Costa Rica, Trinidad & Tobago and USA. [ my source listed only 7 teams here but I think it's supposed to be Serbia and Montenegro since it was the lowest ranked European team ]

European: Croatia, Czech Republic, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland and Ukraine.

Africa,South America and Oceania : Ghana, Ivory Coast, Tunisia, Angola, Togo, Ecuador, Paraguay and Australia.

So for example, the USA could be placed with Mexico, Poland and Ghana . . . or Brazil, Ukraine and Australia . . . or . . .

And I can't wait to see which group gets christened the "Group of Death". The media has to do this every time to one group that comprises the best teams - or the most evenly matched ones.

I'm interested in seeing which group Australia gets in.

[Mr. Wednesday]

In my mind, there's about a 31.2% chance of the U.S. drawing something that the public would call a "group of death", and a 13.1 % chance of us landing a group that would have us in really deep doo-doo (as in I don't like our chances with the seed or the pot 3 Euro, and the pot 2 side is dangerous too).

As expected in this announcement: The seeds, despite rampant speculation (fueled in part by some comments from Blatter) that FIFA would make changes

Surprises: Serbia and Montenegro getting separated out beforehand (previously, it's just been the leftover team) although this does make sense from the POV of competitive equity; FIFA altering the seeding formula in a way that doesn't change who the seeds are

Things we didn't predict but that aren't really big surprises either: Allocation of pots 2 and 4 -- the last two WCs, CONCACAF was grouped with CAF so many observers though it probable that the same would be done this time, and also, with CONCACAF grouped with AFC the extra Euro could have gone into either pot.

[McSweeny]

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="416"><tbody><tr><td align="left" valign="top" width="203">POT ONE
Germany (hosts)
Brazil (holders)
Argentina
England
France
Italy
Mexico
Spain </td> <td width="10">http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif</td> <td align="left" valign="top" width="203"> POT TWO
Australia
Angola
Ghana
Ivory Coast
Togo
Tunisia
Ecuador
Paraguay
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- E ICOL --> <!-- S ICOL --> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="416"><tbody><tr><td align="left" valign="top" width="203"> POT THREE
Croatia
Czech Republic
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Sweden
Switzerland
Ukraine </td> <td width="10">http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif</td> <td align="left" valign="top" width="203"> POT FOUR
Iran
Japan
Saudi Arabia
South Korea
Costa Rica
Trinidad & Tobago
US
Special pot: Serbia & Montenegro</td></tr></tbody></table>

[kingfc22]

I can't wait to see how the US does in Germany.

[McSweeny]

I don't know much about how the groups are drawn in the World Cup. What is the significance of having Serbia & Montenegro in a spot by itself? How does that differ from them being in pot four?so there won't be 3 european teams in the same group i think

[McSweeny]

dola

love that time stamp bug

[Pumpy Tudors]

I don't know much about how the groups are drawn in the World Cup. What is the significance of having Serbia & Montenegro in a spot by itself? How does that differ from them being in pot four?

[MrBug708]

USA will be in a Pot with Italy, Paraguay, and Czech Republic

[GoldenEagle]

I do not think we can be in a pool with Mexico.

[MrBug708]

Cant be in a group with a member from the same region. Except the Euro countries

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't know much about how the groups are drawn in the World Cup. What is the significance of having Serbia & Montenegro in a spot by itself? How does that differ from them being in pot four?Instead of all eight groups available, they will be drawn into a group with one of the non-Euro seeds -- group F (headed by Brazil), or the group headed by Mexico or Argentina. The pot four teams will be drawn into the remaining groups, except that the U.S., CR, and T&T cannot be drawn with Mexico (if Mexico does not draw S&M).

[SackAttack]

(if Mexico does not draw S&M).

I thought they were playing soccer teams, not dominatrices.

[Dunleavy]

live draw on friday (http://soccernet.espn.go.com/feature?id=351143&cc=5901)

here's the bit on pots (http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=351289&cc=5901)

Friday's draw will work in the following way:

The eight seeded teams will be drawn into eight different groups. Germany have already been allocated Group A and Brazil Group F.

Eight unseeded European sides will be drawn into the eight different groups.

The lowest-ranked European side Serbia and Montenegro will be allocated to one of the groups containing either Brazil, Argentina or Mexico to ensure there is no more than two European sides in any group.

A pot of the five African countries, Australia and the two remaining South American sides drawn into eight different groups.

A pot containing the four Asian countries, the USA, Costa Rica and Trinidad drawn into seven different groups.

The full draw for the finals takes place in Leipzig on Friday. The finals start on June 9 and end on July 9, 2006.

[21C]

Cant be in a group with a member from the same region. Except the Euro countries
Didn't realize this. So how would that work? [edit] Just read this page which gave a run down on the process.
hxxp://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/06/en/051202/1/5g1d.html

Not familiar with the whole thing since Australia's not been there for so long.

Actually I was just reading this pdf file which showed that the USA missed being a top seed by 1 point.
hxxp://eur.i1.yimg.com/eu.download.yahoo.com/fifa/fu/finaldrawpot1.pdf

[ice4277]

Anybody know if its going to be on ESPN News?

[Ajaxab]

The schedule says Friday at 4 pm EST on ESPN2.

[fantastic flying froggies]

One easy way around the whole extra pot/Serbia business would have been to put Holland as a top 8 seed (or whichever other european 's ranked higher) instead of Mexico, put Mexico back in the Asia/concacaf and Serbia back in the european pot...

[Easy Mac]

Holland couldn't even make the last world cup, they shouldn't be a top 8 seed.

[tucker342]

Why is Mexico a top 8 seed? How does it work that a team that the U.S. has basically dominated over the past couple years get in over the U.S.? Maybe I just don't understand the reasoning but someone help me out here...

[21C]

hxxp://eur.i1.yimg.com/eu.download.yahoo.com/fifa/fu/finaldrawpot1.pdf

That pdf page link gives a rundown on how the top seedings were decided. I think it comes down to the fact that Mexico has had a higher ranking for the last two years ( that would involve another web search ) and they had performed better in the last couple of World Cups. I'm not sure that head-to-head performance played a part.

[Wolfpack]

Sounds reasonable. That utter crap showing in France in 1998 is probably what's killing the US. They were knockout stage qualifiers in 1994 and quarterfinalists in 2002, but finished DFL in the 1998 event. (1-0 Iran, anyone? Ugh.)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Why is Mexico a top 8 seed? How does it work that a team that the U.S. has basically dominated over the past couple years get in over the U.S.? Maybe I just don't understand the reasoning but someone help me out here... Our pwnership of them aside, they've been pretty damn good against the rest of the world over the last decade or so. Among other things, they've displayed a notable talent for beating Brazil, which does an awful lot of good for them when they do it at the Gold Cup or Confed Cup.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Sounds reasonable. That utter crap showing in France in 1998 is probably what's killing the US. They were knockout stage qualifiers in 1994 and quarterfinalists in 2002, but finished DFL in the 1998 event. (1-0 Iran, anyone? Ugh.) What you're missing is that all 4th-place group teams are given the same rank and all 3rd-place group teams are given the same rank, with the 3rd-place teams getting one more point than the 4th-place teams. Not finishing last wouldn't have been enough to help us, we would have needed to advance to the knockout phase.

You may also note that they include 2003, 2004, and 2005 FIFA rankings. What you may not realize is that each FIFA ranking includes eight years of results, weighted 8-7-6-.... As a result, it is a reasonable approximation to say that the most important year of results for the U.S. as far as FIFA ranking goes is 2003. In that year, we went 0-1-2 (WDL) at the Confed Cup (the losses against top 10 sides Brazil and Turkey) and also went out in the semifinals of the Gold Cup (against Brazil, IIRC). Those results are also a significant reason why we're not seeded.

[Dunleavy]

Why is Mexico a top 8 seed? How does it work that a team that the U.S. has basically dominated over the past couple years get in over the U.S.? Maybe I just don't understand the reasoning but someone help me out here...

The seedings system looked at teams' record in the 2002 and 1998 finals and their world ranking over the last three years.

Under the seedings system Brazil have 64 points followed by England (51), Spain (50), Germany (48), Mexico (47), France (46), Argentina (44) and Italy (44). The USA had 43 points and Holland 38. Under the new seeding system, performances at the 2002 World Cup were given twice as much weight as at 1998, and the only surprise was that FIFA decided against using performances at the 1994 finals.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Although that one change didn't change the actual selection of seeded teams at all, although there were some changes in relative ordering.