Deal Or No Deal.

[SirFozzie]

Talk about a show that will ruin friendships/marriages.

A husband disregarded his wife's pleading to take the $279,000 offer to eliminate one of the four remaining suitcases (3 on the stage, and his).. 2 had low amounts, but two had $500 K and $750K. if he eliminated one of the GOOD ones, then he was not gonna get that big a deal.. and he said NO DEAL..

So he eliminates a suitcase.. $100! One of the low ones.

The banker calls again, There's $25, $500K, and $750K. The banker offers.. $359,000!

So He has a two out of three shot to get more then that, but if he misses, he misses big, and only gets $25 (and he still has to eliminate one of the three remaining suitcases, and of course, if he eliminated the $25 one, then his offer would go way up, but it's more likely he'd eliminate one of the two BIG money payoffs and his offer would go down.

He takes the $359,000 offer.. and just for fun, they reveal his suitcase..

He had the $25! He made $358,975 by taking the deal.

[SirFozzie]

BTW, if you have flash installed (probably need IE to run it), DaddyTorgo found a flash version of Deal Or No Deal. Fun to play :)

http://www.pacdudegames.com/dond.html

[Vince]

How does it feel that you are solely responsible for ruining at least two hours of my life? Augh, that game is addicting as hell.

[Karlifornia]

I'm giving this a go...too bad there's no Howie or Donald Trump. Well..actually maybe not too bad. lol

[Karlifornia]

Wow. The game is pretty fun. In my first go, I lost the $500,000 and $1,000,000 almost right away, and then got hot and had wound up with four cases left: $1,000, $100,000, $300,000 and $750,000, and an offer from the bank of $288,000. I said no deal and opened the next case. $750,000. That sound when you open a high money case is just killer. Then my offer dropped to $134,000. I opened another case, and it was $100,000. Now I had an offer of $151,000 and one case to open. I took the deal, and my case had $1,000 in it.

Pretty sweet game.

[Thomkal]

Oh man I may never stop playing this game. My very first game, it came down to me winning either $5 or the million. Turned down the offer of $500,000, which I probably never would have done if the money was real. They open the case I picked initially...1 million! I'm rich!

[Thomkal]

LOL the second game I played, the very first case I pick after I had picked mine...1 million!

[stevew]

Has anyone figured out the formula for the banker making offers?

[Raiders Army]

I did the "strategy" of picking suitcase 26. I then picked in succession 1-24. My final offer was $250,000 and I had the $500,000 and $400 suitcases left. I took the deal and there was $400 in suitcase 26.

Fun game.

[Marc Vaughan]

Always ended up taking a deal which was in excess of $250,000 with between 8 and 4 cases left - not a born gambler me (incidentally each time the settlement was larger than the final amount :D).

[Doug5984]

thank god that was fake- I played, had knocked out all the big money (except 1 mil) early on...took a deal for $150,000- they show me my case with 1 million in it. Ouch

[JeeberD]

Wow, I have got to be the worst player ever at that Flash game. Eight of the first ten briefcases that I removed were $5k or more...

[Deattribution]

I got down to the final two cases.. 1 cent or $1,000,000... passed on the $500,000 offer and had the 1 mill in the case I picked.

[JeeberD]

I got down to the final two cases.. 1 cent or $1,000,000... passed on the $500,000 offer and had the 1 mill in the case I picked.

I was down to $1 or $100,000 and was offered $50,000. I turned down the deal and had $1 in my case. Like I said, I suck at this game... :(

[Raiders Army]

$525,000! I was down to two suitcases: $300,000 or $750,000 and I took the deal. There was $300,000 in my suitcase.

[stkelly52]

I got down to the final two cases.. 1 cent or $1,000,000... passed on the $500,000 offer and had the 1 mill in the case I picked.I had the exact same situation, except I took the deal for $500,000. In my case was .01

[Wolfpack]

I'm having a great run of luck right now. My two lowest cases are $50 and $1,000 and the other four cases are $100,000+. My current offer is $341,000. I'll never get this lucky in real life. :)

[Wolfpack]

Dola...and my next case was the $50 case. My offer is now $435,000.

[Wolfpack]

Double dola...finally got down to three cases, guaranteed at least $100,000 with both $750K and $1 mil still left. Offer stood at $617,000. Given a two-in-three chance of picking something higher than that and potentially losing a lot of money, I walked. The case I picked? Of course, it had the million in it. *sigh*

[Huckleberry]

Has anyone figured out the formula for the banker making offers?Seems like he approaches the appropriate offer (maximum amount that still gives him an EV > 0) as the number of remaining briefcases approaches 0. So basically the entire game comes down to holding out for one of the later offers.

Got no idea on the formula for how far away the offers start.

[Raiders Army]

When I was down to two suitcases worth $10 or $200, he offered me $200. I of course took the deal.

[BrianD]

Seems like he approaches the appropriate offer (maximum amount that still gives him an EV > 0) as the number of remaining briefcases approaches 0. So basically the entire game comes down to holding out for one of the later offers.

Got no idea on the formula for how far away the offers start.

The formulas in this game seem to be around an average of all of the remaining dollar amounts, but the offers on the TV show seem to be a fair bit less than the average.

[SirFozzie]

about 10% less then the average value I'd say.

[BrianD]

about 10% less then the average value I'd say.

On the show or in the web game?

[SirFozzie]

on the show

[mauchow]

At the beginning of the show, why'd they show the ad for possibly $3 Million dollars can be won?

[SirFozzie]

because they up the top prize 500K each day this week.

Tonight's top prize will be 1.5 Million

[stevew]

On the show or in the web game?

The web game isnt official.

[Deattribution]

The web game isnt official.

They have an official one on the NBC site... It's much faster paced but takes out some of the fun to me...


http://www.nbc.com/Deal_or_No_Deal/game/

[Deattribution]

dola

but the cases on the official game seem to be a bit more randomly placed.

[SirFozzie]

Ouch. she turns down $172,000 and $80,000 and gets.. $5.

[Sublime 2]

Yeah....that hurt!

[Mr. Wednesday]

They have an official one on the NBC site... It's much faster paced but takes out some of the fun to me...


http://www.nbc.com/Deal_or_No_Deal/game/ I wonder how accurate that is?

I just got a very interesting scenario.
With 6 remaining, outstanding are 50, 10k, 100k, 400k, 500k, 1mil. I'm offered $126k, or the option to eliminate another. I choose no deal and eliminate 400k. Now I'm offered $166k. That's a bit of a surprise -- I hurt my standing, but they offered me more money?

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm so proud that the game i found wasted so many hours of people's lives http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/biggrin.gifhttp://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/biggrin.gif

[SirFozzie]

I wonder how accurate that is?

I just got a very interesting scenario.
With 6 remaining, outstanding are 50, 10k, 100k, 400k, 500k, 1mil. I'm offered $126k, or the option to eliminate another. I choose no deal and eliminate 400k. Now I'm offered $166k. That's a bit of a surprise -- I hurt my standing, but they offered me more money?

That's because the biggest # on the board, 1 Million is still there... it's so far ahead of the other options, that it drives the average value up

[mauchow]

I wonder how accurate that is?

I just got a very interesting scenario.
With 6 remaining, outstanding are 50, 10k, 100k, 400k, 500k, 1mil. I'm offered $126k, or the option to eliminate another. I choose no deal and eliminate 400k. Now I'm offered $166k. That's a bit of a surprise -- I hurt my standing, but they offered me more money?
Yup, because you're $1 Mill is still there.. The longer that baby stays out, the more money you'll get.

Edit: oops, thats what I guess for not refreshing the page.

[bossfan2000]

Yeah....that hurt!

Yeah..i was rooting for that lady, too. You could tell Howie was upset at how it turned out, too.

That show is like crack..cant turn it off. Perfect show for tivo, too, so you can skip thru the commercials and get back to the game.

[EagleFan]

That can be addictive. Liked the one deal I made for 122K and my suitcase had 1 dollar in it. But there there wasthe other time that I took 96K and my suitcase had 750k in it (the only right hand amount on the board at that point).

[BrianD]

about 10% less then the average value I'd say.

Looks like they are giving a lot less than 10% less. Watching last night's show the lady has 4 amounts totalling $1,050,006. The average is $262,501.50, but she was only offered $172,000. That is about 65% of the average.

I'm going to guess that the formula is closer to 10% less than the average of the current board average and the starting board average. The starting board average is around $131,000. Using the above example, the average between the starting board ($131,000) and the current board ($262,501) is about $198,000. 10% less than that is about $177,000.

[Raiders Army]

Could there be something else as well, like the odds of hitting the "big money"? Something like the average of the amounts left times the odds of hitting the largest amount(s).

[BrianD]

I'm trying to put some spreadsheets together, but am having very little luck figuring out the formula. This is going to bother me until someone figures this out.

[stkelly52]

During the very first episode, when they described the banker, they mentioned that the banker would take into account how the person was acting. So I don't think that there is a set formula. On Monday night (the one described above) they guys wife was begging him to take the deal, and he didn't do it. Moments later (but before he opened the next case) he expressed a great amount of regret for that choice. At that point it became clear that he would likely accept the next offer regardless of what it was. That mean that the banker could offer him lower than what the odds would say is a fair deal.

[SirFozzie]

Another huge win, but it could have been so much more.. $407,000.. If she had gone to the end, it would have been between $2,000,000 and $75 and the bank's offer would have been $1 million.. and she had the $75.

[mauchow]

Yeah, but she didn't really know what she was going to pick...

[mauchow]

And why be upset based on hindsight? That's just silly. Be happy with 'only' $400,000

[Zippo]

I just got half a million in the game on the NBC website, ended up sticking with my box the all way though.

[mauchow]

omg.. he said no deal

about to find out if he's $250,000 richer or about $200 richer. 1 in 3 shot he has the 5000 hundo

[mauchow]

He has to take this 250,000 here.. 50-50 chance.

[mauchow]

jeez.. that isn't a tough decision.. he's nearly crying..

whew.. way to go though, finally.

[kingfc22]

What is this guy doing? Take the money man!!!

[Zippo]

wow

[kingfc22]

"ok" "ok" "ok" "ok"

What's the over/under on this chick saying "ok"?