More Sports Betting - World Sports Exchange

[QuikSand]

I opened an account on this site (World Sports Exchange -- w s e x dot com) after hearing some good feedback from friends about their reliability, and knowing that they offer a good variety of proposition bets, which interest me. In particular, I like their idea of hosting a market for "shares" of a sports commodity - like "Who Will Win The 2007 Superbowl?" and then as the market develops, you are enable to buy or sell shares of teams as things progress. Unlike a traditional futures market (where you might put down $5 on a team in hopes of winning $200 at 20-1 future odds), here, if your 20-1 team does well through the season, you have the option to sell the share at its adjusted price... maybe $15 by that point, and take your winnings.

I'll probably get into this in more detail later, but I thought I'd share my ankle-deep efforts into this front here, especially since I know precious little about most of the sports really going on right now. But I want to get acclamated to this, and it seems there's no time like the present.

Questions welcome -- I ma not have all the answers, but I'm game for anything.

[QuikSand]

Here's a fine starting example...


2006 NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE CHAMP (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[NBA EAST] DETROIT 50 53 -112
[NBA EAST] MIAMI 37 40 +150
[NBA EAST] CLEVELAND 11 14 +614


I hope the formattiong is readable here. The bet is on who will represent the East in the NBA finals - withonly three teams left contending. Detroit has been a pretty prohibitive favorite in this regard for much of the season, not surprisingly.

The eventual winner will be paid at $100 per share. Right now, you can buy each of the three teams for the prices listed under "Buy" -- so a share of Detroit right now costs $53, making them slightly less than even money to win the conference.

I am no fan of the NBA. Honestly. I can't stand to watch it, even in the playoffs. I find the personalities interesting, and I don't mind seeing highlights about NBA stuff, nor do I mind watching a show like Pardon the Interruption dedictae time to the NBA, because the day-to-day stories are often fairly interesting. But if you want to break down player versus player, and strategy and the like... I am not your man.

I am, however, something of a math guy. And to me -- Detroit now needs to win both remaining games against Cleveland (including one at CLE next) just to get into the conference finals. Even if they are, say, 70% likely to win any given game against Cleveland (the team whom they currently trail 3-2), that makes them only about even money just to advance to the next series. Detroit seems too highly regarded right now for my tastes.

So, I put down some money on Cleveland. As it turns out, I bought my five shares earlier today, at a price of $13 -- a $65 investment. The fact that the "buy" price has already risen to $14 tells me that I'm on the right track here, and there is an adjustment due. I don't really know enough to claim that Cleveland is the likely conference champion... but at $13-to-get-$100, I like my odds. And the ability to sell my shares, even for a modest profit, makes this a far more entertaining proposition for me.

So -- first bet of the "dynasty" is right here:

BET: 5 Shares of Cleveland To Win Eastern Conference @$13 = $65

(I'll come up with some snappy formatting for this eventually, perhaps)

[QuikSand]

Just for discussion's sake, here are the American League pennant lines -- I have already made small investments in two teams, but I won't tell who quite yet. Any thoughts on this opportunity?


2006 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[AL] NEW YORK Y 24 28 +257
[AL] CHICAGO W 18 21 +376
[AL] BOSTON 15 18 +455
[AL] OAKLAND 8 11 +809
[AL] DETROIT 6 8 +1150
[AL] TORONTO 5 7 +1328
[AL] CLEVELAND 3 5 +1900
[AL] TEXAS 3 5 +1900
[AL] LOS ANGELES A 3 5 +1900
[AL] SEATTLE 0 1 +9900
[AL] KANSAS CITY 0 1 +9900
[AL] MINNESOTA 0 1 +9900
[AL] BALTIMORE 0 1 +9900
[AL] TAMPA BAY 0 1 +9900

[mooreadamc]

I've always wanted to try this site but just like the regular stock market I can't afford to invest that much yet. Graduation means paying back student loans for a while.

I would look at Cleveland as a potential buy. They are a very poor starting team but seem to go on a roll at the end of the year.

Good luck :)

[QuikSand]

I would look at Cleveland as a potential buy. They are a very poor starting team but seem to go on a roll at the end of the year.

Done. That was the team I got in on first, buying ten shares at $4 each for $40. This price has also jumped up slightly since I bought in... well, at these integer increments, there is no slight movement... up from $4 to $5 is pretty significant, I guess. Not looking to tie up a ton of money, but if the season drags on and they st leat stay in the hunt, I have to figure their SELL price can get up above $5. I like a lot of things about the team, and think they at least have a reasonable shot to be in the mix come August or so.

BET: 10 Shares of Cleveland To Win American League @$4 = $40

[albionmoonlight]

How is the liquidity of the market? Is there always a willing buyer when you are ready to sell?

[QuikSand]

I don't think they run it as a true market - I think it's entirely managed through them. So there are not technically a fixed number of shares of the Cleveland Cavaliers, for instance -- but rather they assess supply and demand and set the prices accordingly.

To the best of my knowledge, if they list them at $14 to buy, you can buy them (basically from the house). And if they (hopefully) list them with a sell price of $28 in a few nights, I could sell immdieately back to the house and cash out.

[QuikSand]

Obviously, at any time, if they have set their prices wisely, then they will have action on both sides -- and since the Sell price is always a notch lower than the Buy price, they make money on the even exchange. When the action is uneven, they adjust the prices. Makes sense to me, especially if they limit the number of hsares you can order at once -- I'm obviously just piddling around, so that's not an issue for me exactly.

[mooreadamc]

Glad I chose the first team right. This concept sounds great. I can't wait until my money goes to me instead of the bank.

Would the other team be Toronto or Boston?

[QuikSand]

I think Boston is intriguing, but paying that high a price means, basically, sitting back and waiting all season in hopes that they actually appreciate. Nothing wrong with that, but it's not exactly what I'm hoping to do.

I put my other small bet on Minnesota, who have been suffering through just awful pitching, and are still not out of it. They have folded Francisco Liriano into the rotation, which ought to help, and they have a shot to make some noise, I think. At $1 per share, ten shares wasn't exact a big investment, but any tick upward can get me some profit... if they go one any kind of winning streak and get their Sell price up to $3 or $4 (just by being a sort of hopeful outsider) then I have a shot to drag a profit from them.

BET: 10 Shares of Minnesota To Win American League @$1 = $10

[SirFozzie]

eastern Conference? The fuck?

[QuikSand]

Sorry for the laziness... now remedied.

[QuikSand]

Here's the Western Conference in the NBA... I have nothing invested here.


2006 NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE CHAMP (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[NBA WEST] DALLAS 51 55 -122
[NBA WEST] SAN ANTONIO 19 23 +334
[NBA WEST] PHOENIX 16 20 +400
[NBA WEST] LOS ANGELES C 6 8 +1150


My guess is that San Antonio might be the value play there after winning last night, but I don't think I will bet it at $23.

[QuikSand]

The Western Conference lines hav moved a bit... suggesting that my inkling about San Antonio was shared:


2006 NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE CHAMP (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[NBA WEST] DALLAS 50 53 -112
[NBA WEST] SAN ANTONIO 24 27 +270
[NBA WEST] PHOENIX 13 16 +525
[NBA WEST] LOS ANGELES C 7 10 +900


Still nothing there I'm putting money on, I don't think, but the price for Phoenix is getting a bit low, really.

[stevew]

I think for 7 bucks, the Clippers are a good buy.

[stevew]

Nevermind, read that wrong.

[mooreadamc]

I think for 7 bucks, the Clippers are a good buy.

That's the sell price. The buy price is $10.

[mooreadamc]

Nevermind, read that wrong.

Doh!

[stevew]

The clips have a 50% chance of making the finals at this point. They are on a bit of a roll, I'd think they might be at most 3-6 point dogs for the game on monday. If they do win, they would probably be something like 25% favorites for the conference championship at that point. So the potential for a quick turnaround where you double the money by merely cashing out before game one is certainly a fair possibility. If they were to win game one, I'm sure the odds would get even better.

But I'm not a serious gambler, so I don't know how realistic an approach that even is.

[Vegas Vic]

Unlike a traditional futures market (where you might put down $5 on a team in hopes of winning $200 at 20-1 future odds), here, if your 20-1 team does well through the season, you have the option to sell the share at its adjusted price... maybe $15 by that point, and take your winnings.

They did this with the 2004 presidential election, and you've never seen a trading frenzy the likes of which took place on election day. When the early exit polls were leaked on Drudge and Slate showing that Kerry was sweeping all of the big states, his stock went through the roof. However, in just a couple of hours, it fell through the floor when the actual returns started solidifying. There were a few people who cleaned up by buying and selling both Kerry and Bush at the right time during the day.

[QuikSand]

So -- first bet of the "dynasty" is right here:

BET: 5 Shares of Cleveland To Win Eastern Conference @$13 = $65



OUT: $65
IN: $0

No worries. Still like the bet.. a different result of a very close game six and I pull out something like $200. Seems worth the stab.

[Swaggs]

Interesting concept here.

I will be following along.

[QuikSand]

After a few days, here are the AL Pennant prices as updated:


2006 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[AL] NEW YORK Y 20 24 +316
[AL] BOSTON 18 21 +376
[AL] CHICAGO W 16 19 +426
[AL] OAKLAND 12 15 +566
[AL] DETROIT 6 8 +1150
[AL] CLEVELAND 4 6 +1566
[AL] TEXAS 4 6 +1566
[AL] TORONTO 3 5 +1900
[AL] LOS ANGELES A 1 3 +3233
[AL] MINNESOTA 0 1 +9900
[AL] SEATTLE 0 1 +9900
[AL] BALTIMORE 0 1 +9900
[AL] KANSAS CITY 0 1 +9900
[AL] TAMPA BAY 0 1 +9900


Minnesota has not moved (no surprise there) but Cleveland has leapt up from $2/$4 when i bought them to a new price of $4/$6. So, in theory, I could sell now and be right back where I started. I have no plans to do so, but I have to think that any movement in the market in my favor is good -- especially with low-price options like Cleveland was.

[stevew]

Any thought of perhaps picking up some Seattle? They are only 3 out right now and have a better record than Minnesota. But probably do not have the high ceiling that the Twins could still display.

[QuikSand]

I don't think Seattle is a bad buy right now. At $1, they seem worth a look.

I'll do a little more investigating -- I didn't like what I saw from an underlying stat view pre-season, which is part of what has me motivated by CLE and MIN. But they may be worth some more digging.

[QuikSand]

2006 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[AL] NEW YORK Y 25 28 +257
[AL] CHICAGO W 17 20 +400
[AL] BOSTON 14 17 +488
[AL] DETROIT 7 10 +900
[AL] OAKLAND 7 9 +1011
[AL] TEXAS 6 8 +1150
[AL] TORONTO 4 6 +1566
[AL] LOS ANGELES A 4 6 +1566
[AL] CLEVELAND 3 5 +1900
[AL] MINNESOTA 1 2 +4900
[AL] SEATTLE 0 1 +9900
[AL] BALTIMORE 0 1 +9900
[AL] KANSAS CITY 0 1 +9900
[AL] TAMPA BAY 0 1 +9900

Just an update on the AL chase -- with my bets still in play. I have seen Cleveland bump up and down a little based on the most recent game or two, but this slot at 3/5 is fairly typical. Minnesota has bumped up one notch, but still needs to go up a couple more for me to have an immediate profit potential.

I'm not looking to do any more buying, but I'm thinking the Angels might be as attractive as anyone on the list right now.

[dixieflatline]

Have you looked at any of the world cup teams? My guess is that Brazil might be overrated right now. They have a very easy group, which they should cruise through, but will play a very good team in the round of 16 against group and on.

[QuikSand]

2006 WORLD CUP SOCCER - ODDS TO WIN
Outcome Odds
BRAZIL 5-2
ENGLAND 5-1
GERMANY 6-1
ITALY 7-1
ARGENTINA 15-2
FRANCE 12-1
NETHERLANDS 13-1
SPAIN 14-1
PORTUGAL 22-1
CZECH REPUBLIC 22-1
SWEDEN 35-1
CROATIA 40-1
MEXICO 45-1
USA 50-1
UKRAINE 65-1
SERBIA & MONTENEGRO 80-1
IVORY COAST 80-1
POLAND 120-1
SWITZERLAND 130-1
AUSTRALIA 130-1
PARAGUAY 150-1
SOUTH KOREA 150-1
JAPAN 180-1
GHANA 200-1
TUNISIA 300-1
ECUADOR 350-1
TOGO 400-1
IRAN 450-1
SAUDI ARABIA 600-1
COSTA RICA 600-1
ANGOLA 600-1
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO 750-1

I don't claim to kno anywhere near enough about this sport to have a firm opinion... but that doesn't necessarily stop me from participating in a healty wager from time to time.

Since you mentioned Brasil, here's a set of odds just to win their Group:

2006 WORLD CUP SOCCER - GROUP F WINNER
Outcome Odds
BRAZIL 1-5
CROATIA 7-2
AUSTRALIA 11-1
JAPAN 14-1

Putting up $50 to win $10 isn't too exciting to me under most circumstances, but it wuld have to be quite a meltdown for them not to win that group, no?

[QuikSand]

I'd be a lot mroe interested if they had a long-term market for the World Cup, rather than just straight futures, like above. I'd like to put down a bet on, say, Ukraine and be able to cash out a profit if they advance -- but if they have to win it all for me to get anything, I'm a lot less interested.

[dixieflatline]

Wow that is an interesting list. I follow soccer some but I don't claim to be an expert. That said this line looks horribly wrong to me:
ITALY 7-1
First off group E is very very difficult and there is definitely a chance that they don't even make it out of group play. Even if they do make it out if they end second in the group that probably means Brazil in the round of 16. Certainly they are a talented team but no way would I make them 7-1. I think something like 15-1 is much closer to the proper line. Other teams I think the line is somewhat off are:
ENGLAND 5-1 too high
CZECH REPUBLIC 22-1 too low
SERBIA & MONTENEGRO 80-1 too high, never getting out of that group
COSTA RICA 600-1 too low
Quik, since you seem to like to take flyers on some high odds teams I think you should take a look at Costa Rica. They are in group A with Germany, Poland, and Ecudor. Germany should take that group but second place should be up for grabs. They went 1-1-1 in the last world cup and played decently in qualifing this time around. They haven't faired too well in friendlies recently but I think they could give the other teams trouble. Lastly, they are opening with Germany in the first game with everyone watching. There will be tons of pressure on Germany here and I could see them possibly getting a draw out of this match which would be huge.

[dixieflatline]

Dola
Can't you do a buy low seel high thing here as well or is this straight odds? Lastly, I am never good at looking low reward things, like brazil winning their group, and finding any value. Are they better than a 83% chance? Maybe, but I can't really tell.

[QuikSand]

Can't you do a buy low seel high thing here as well or is this straight odds?

Straight odds, only cash if the team actually wins it all. I'd love a bet on a longshot like CR with a shot to escape the Group stage, but not if they have to win it all to pay anything.

[albionmoonlight]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=lines-contest-oddrow><TD>[NBA CHAMP] DALLAS <TD align=right>58 (http://www.wsex.com/cgi/order_form?series=35392&price=58&disp=S) <TD align=right>61 (http://www.wsex.com/cgi/order_form?series=35392&price=61&disp=B) <TD noWrap align=right> -156 <TR class=lines-contest-evenrow><TD>[NBA CHAMP] MIAMI <TD align=right>39 (http://www.wsex.com/cgi/order_form?series=35393&price=39&disp=S) <TD align=right>42 (http://www.wsex.com/cgi/order_form?series=35393&price=42&disp=B) <TD noWrap align=right> +138</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Any thoughts here? Miami looks interesting here in that winning Game 1 probably puts them above $50, at which point you could cash out. In my mind, this series is closer going in than these odds reflect. And Game 1s can be toss-ups anyway.

At the same time, it is a high-risk strategy. If they lose Game 1 and the series, then you are out a hefty 42/share. Does not seem to fit with your "take a flyer on a educated long-shot guess early in the season" mode of operation.

[mooreadamc]

Any idea when the future buy/sell lines normally come up for a sport? I realize the hockey season is not over yet but I have a couple of ideas for some cheaper (hopefully) teams to buy. Just curious if you know from past experiences. Thanks.

[QuikSand]

Sorry to just be catching up - I actually missed that there were responses.

WSEX has posted a long term market for the World Cup, at last:


2006 WORLD CUP (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
BRAZIL 23 26 +284
ARGENTINA 10 12 +733
ENGLAND 10 12 +733
GERMANY 9 11 +809
ITALY 7 9 +1011
NETHERLANDS 6 8 +1150
SPAIN 5 7 +1328
FRANCE 5 7 +1328
CZECH REP 3 4 +2400
PORTUGAL 3 4 +2400
SWEDEN 1 2 +4900
MEXICO 1 2 +4900
UKRAINE 1 2 +4900
CROATIA 0 1 +9900
SWITZERLAND 0 1 +9900
IVORY COAST 0 1 +9900
AUSTRALIA 0 1 +9900


I don't know enough to jump right in, but I am very interested in getting a bet down in this format, as I am trying to get more interested in the Cup anyway.

Off the top of my head... Germany? Czechs? Mexico?

[QuikSand]

Any idea when the future buy/sell lines normally come up for a sport? I realize the hockey season is not over yet but I have a couple of ideas for some cheaper (hopefully) teams to buy. Just curious if you know from past experiences. Thanks.

I don't know, but I will keep an eye open for them.

[QuikSand]

Does not seem to fit with your "take a flyer on a educated long-shot guess early in the season" mode of operation.

Indeed... I don't know enough about the NBA to get in that deep just on a hunch. I didn't follow the progression, but the rub with these markets is that the split between the buy and sell pricers makes it such that you rarely feel it's great value to get out for a partial loss (I'd think).

[dixieflatline]

Wow I am shocked that the Czechs are so low. They appear poised to get out of group play for sure now and that number is only going to rise after that. I'd throw some money down on that now. I like mexico but I like portugal a bit better in to win that group. That could keep mexico's numbers a bit down. Germany looks like there might be some value there. Of the $1 teams Australia looks to be a decent bet. They have a very solid chance of getting out of their group and should rise at that point. They would fit the Quiksand buy low sell high model. Lastly, I think the Dutch may also have some value. They are in a hard group but started with a win. I could see them making a very deep run.

[QuikSand]

BET: 5 shares of Czech Republic to win the World Cup @$4 = $20

[QuikSand]

2006 WORLD CUP (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
BRAZIL 23 26 +284
ARGENTINA 10 12 +733
ENGLAND 10 12 +733
GERMANY 9 11 +809
ITALY 8 10 +900
SPAIN 8 10 +900
NETHERLANDS 5 7 +1328
CZECH REP 4 6 +1566
FRANCE 4 6 +1566
PORTUGAL 3 4 +2400
SWEDEN 2 3 +3233
MEXICO 1 2 +4900
CROATIA 0 1 +9900
UKRAINE 0 1 +9900
SWITZERLAND 0 1 +9900
IVORY COAST 0 1 +9900
AUSTRALIA 0 1 +9900

So, the Czechs have rised to $4/$6 before even taking ther pitch again - solid. Now, just a win over Ghana and I'll have to decide whether to cash out at something like $5-6, or let it ride as they play Italy for the right to avoid Brasil.

[QuikSand]

BET: 5 shares of Czech Republic to win the World Cup @$4 = $20

Yeah, the...uh... Ghana match wasn't exactly what I had in mind there. *sigh*

Czechs are now priced at $1/$2... I see no point in selling low, have to hope for a win over Italy to get them onward. A Czech win over Italy and a US win gives us the best possible outcome, though -- Czechs as the top seed, avoiding Brasil.

[mooreadamc]

I agree that Ghana loss was brutal. I would have chosen the Czechs as well based on those lines. I also think Germany has a good shot of going to the finals so you may want to consider...good luck.

[QuikSand]

2006 WORLD CUP (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
BRAZIL 21 24 +316
ARGENTINA 19 21 +376
GERMANY 11 13 +669
ENGLAND 10 12 +733
SPAIN 9 11 +809
ITALY 6 8 +1150
NETHERLANDS 5 7 +1328
PORTUGAL 3 4 +2400
FRANCE 3 4 +2400
CZECH REP 1 2 +4900
SWEDEN 1 2 +4900
UKRAINE 0 1 +9900
CROATIA 0 1 +9900
SWITZERLAND 0 1 +9900
AUSTRALIA 0 1 +9900
MEXICO 0 1 +9900
IVORY COAST 0 1 +9900
JAPAN 0 1 +9900
ECUADOR 0 1 +9900
GHANA 0 1 +9900
USA 0 1 +9900
SOUTH KOREA 0 1 +9900

If things break well, and the USA actually advances... I wonder what their price rises to, considering they'd face Brasil? I'm tempted to try to buy low on the USA, thinking that a little local hype might make them get overbet here... but they would have to get up to something like 3/4 to make the bet worthwhile. Hmmm...

Wonder about Australia... buying shares for $1 is low-risk, and they have at least a shot to advance, right?

[QuikSand]

Group F
Key
Overview | News
Team MP W D L GF GA Pts
Brazil 2 2 0 0 3 0 6
Australia 2 1 0 1 3 3 3
Croatia 2 0 1 1 0 1 1
Japan 2 0 1 1 1 3 1


Australia advances with a win over Croatia, who has yet to score in their two matches so far. They also advance with a draw. If they win... I wonder what the market does for them? $2/$3 perhaps? That seems like more than fair compensation to me for a match where they are likely favored...

[dixieflatline]

Wonder about Australia... buying shares for $1 is low-risk, and they have at least a shot to advance, right?
Realistically, the Roos just need a draw against Croatia to move on (Japan isn't going to beat Brazil by 3). They will get the winner of group E (Italy?) in the round of 16 if they do advance, looking forward. I suggested them before but am loathe to suggest anyone now after what the Czech did in their last game. Certainly though I would take them over the US as they have an easier road to the round of 16 and an easier match (though still very difficult) if they do get there. Mexico, the Swiss, and Ukraine all look good for the second round and are only a buck right now. Mexico will get either Agentina or the dutch though. Switzerland and the Ukraine could end up playing each other which could be interesting.

[QuikSand]

BET: 20 shares of Australia to win the World Cup @$1 = $20

[Fighter of Foo]

You'll want to pick up some Ukraine shares. They have a good chance to make the quarterfinals (vs. Korea/France/Swiss group winner next round with a point)and their shares will have to be worth something if that happens.

[QuikSand]

Alas, I moved too slowly to make the real kill... but alas, what the heck:

BET: 10 shares of Ukraine to win the World Cup @$2 = $20

[QuikSand]

**still avoiding WC spoilers, incidentally**

A forum reader asks, by PM:

Just a question on your sports betting dynasty.

How do events like the WC work on this site? Can you buy and sell right away? For instance lets say I noticed today that the Czechs were winning 2-0. Could I buy shares cheap right away before everyone else does? Or do the prices lock for a day or something?

As nearly as I can tell, they have two sorts of bets liek this. I have been betting in the "long term" section, where the markets seem to close while relevant events are taking place -- so teams playign tiday cannot be bought and sold today.

They also seem to have similar "live betting" events, where you are able (encouraged) to buy and sell during the actual game. You can buy and sell shares of the teams as they are playing, and try to anticipate what will happen in the game as it goes on. I haven't gotten into that yet -- seems the buy/sell differential would be a killer unless you hit things really well. Maybe with NFL football, though.

[QuikSand]

Well... it seems that I overestimated the degree of "bump" sides would see after actually qualifiying:

2006 WORLD CUP (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
BRAZIL 21 24 +316
ARGENTINA 18 21 +376
GERMANY 10 12 +733
ENGLAND 9 11 +809
ITALY 9 11 +809
SPAIN 8 10 +900
NETHERLANDS 5 7 +1328
PORTUGAL 3 4 +2400
FRANCE 3 4 +2400
UKRAINE 1 2 +4900
SWEDEN 1 2 +4900
AUSTRALIA 1 2 +4900
CROATIA 0 1 +9900
SWITZERLAND 0 1 +9900
MEXICO 0 1 +9900
CZECH REP 0 1 +9900
IVORY COAST 0 1 +9900
JAPAN 0 1 +9900
ECUADOR 0 1 +9900
GHANA 0 1 +9900
USA 0 1 +9900
SOUTH KOREA 0 1 +9900

The Aussies qualified (albeit on an unspectacular draw) and only moved from 0/1 to 1/2... meaning I can sell at zero gain right now, or take my chances until the first match in the tournament stages.

Hell, even Ghana is still at 0/1 (same as the clubs that have been eliminated) which I'd have guessed would be impossible... I don't know if they are worth buying at $1 with a guaranteed advancement, but that just seems a bit silly to me. Might be a function of integerprices, though, more than anything else -- perhaps by virtue of advancing they have moved from a 400-1 shot to a mere 100- shot by the betting public. *shurg*

Looks like this little venture is going to come up pretty empty for me.

[mooreadamc]

That's my guess as well. Although teams like the Aussies and Ghana moved on, no one believes they can get past there next games. If the Aussies or Ukraine moves on though I can see some activity to be able to sell.

[QuikSand]

2006 WORLD CUP (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
BRAZIL 22 25 +300
ARGENTINA 16 18 +455
GERMANY 15 17 +488
ENGLAND 11 13 +669
ITALY 9 11 +809
SPAIN 6 8 +1150
PORTUGAL 5 6 +1566
FRANCE 3 4 +2400
AUSTRALIA 1 2 +4900
UKRAINE 1 2 +4900
SWITZERLAND 1 2 +4900
GHANA 0 1 +9900

Well, I think that this little experiment (in a sport about which I know perilously little) is most serving to educate me on these "markets." I'm not seeing anywhere near the elasticity in the markets that I'd expect...sides winning their first match are hardly budging in these odds.

I wonder if Argentina might be a good buy here? I'm obviously just playing patty cake with this, but a couple of shares of one of the contenders would get me watching more closely. *shurg*

[mooreadamc]

I don't know...I think the Argentina/Germany match is a toss up next. I'd hate to see you make an investment in them and have them lose the next game. I think the Germans wil be very strong at home. Up to you, but I would just take the loses or go with England. I think England can win their next match against Portugal with the injuries and suspensions to the Portegese players.

[QuikSand]

I think England can win their next match against Portugal with the injuries and suspensions to the Portegese players.

My worry is mainly that I could win with England, and still not get much of anywhere. If most of the real money in the pool is concentrated with the handful of major clubs, then let's say England survives to face the Arg/Ger winner, and Brasil is still alive on the other side with whomever. Presumably England would be an underdog in their semifinal match, so their price might rise from its current 11/13 to... what, 16/18 or 18/20? I'm just worried that I might be buying in at $13 to get a chance to sell at only $15 or 16, and that doesn't seem to be worth it to me.

I suspect I'll end up deciding there's no good value in this pool any longer, and just sitting it out.

I do want to drop a few bucks on Ghana, though, at $1. Hard not to root for them.

[QuikSand]

Even with the win by the Ukraine, it looks like I'm fuct here:

2006 WORLD CUP (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
BRAZIL 22 25 +300
ARGENTINA 16 18 +455
GERMANY 14 16 +525
ITALY 12 14 +614
ENGLAND 10 12 +733
SPAIN 7 9 +1011
PORTUGAL 5 6 +1566
FRANCE 3 4 +2400
UKRAINE 1 2 +4900
GHANA 0 1 +9900


I guess I can hope things move a trace in the next day or two... but not even a budge of one notch?!?!? Ouch. I can still buy shares of UKR at the same price I did before they had even advanced from their group - and now they're in the round of eight. Double ouch.

[ctrane_crash]

QS,

Something I found more interesting than futures is live betting. For the Brazil - Ghana game I bet as follows on the over/under (2.5):

- Before game started:
Bought over @54
Bought under @50

- Brazil scored in the fifth minute, I panicked and did the wrong thing:
Sold under @28

- Realized my mistake
Sold over @63
Bought two contracts of under @38

- Planned on selling one under when it reached 51, negating the loss, but Brazil scores at the end of the half, sending the sell to 21. I decided to hold the contracts and see what happens...

- Brazil and Ghana go scoreless for 40 minutes in the second half, the sell rises to 60... a smart man would sell here, but if I wait and there is no additional score, the sell goes all the way to 100 each... Brazil scores at the 86th minute, and I get a big dounut when I could have traded in the contracts for a total of 120 (+48). Damn the greed, but it was exciting...

[mooreadamc]

Sounds interesting, almost like day trading. I may give this a shot sometime.

[QuikSand]

The in-game markets sound interesting to me -- but i think I'd be more inclined to dabble in a sport I feel I understand better than WC Soccer. Maybe with NFL football.

I'm increasingly inclined to think that the implied vig (space between the buy and sell prices) here is a pretty big factor -- more so than I was originally inclined to think. It's killing me in these "outsider" bets of course, but I think it's a factor elsewhere too.

[QuikSand]

2006 WORLD CUP (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
BRAZIL 26 29 +244
ARGENTINA 16 18 +455
GERMANY 15 17 +488
ITALY 12 14 +614
ENGLAND 10 12 +733
FRANCE 7 9 +1011
PORTUGAL 5 6 +1566
UKRAINE 1 2 +4900

Ponderous.

[QuikSand]

I put my other small bet on Minnesota, who have been suffering through just awful pitching, and are still not out of it. They have folded Francisco Liriano into the rotation, which ought to help, and they have a shot to make some noise, I think. At $1 per share, ten shares wasn't exact a big investment, but any tick upward can get me some profit... if they go one any kind of winning streak and get their Sell price up to $3 or $4 (just by being a sort of hopeful outsider) then I have a shot to drag a profit from them.

BET: 10 Shares of Minnesota To Win American League @$1 = $10

Incidentally, back to other flights of fancy...


2006 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[AL] CHICAGO 20 23 +334
[AL] NEW YORK 18 21 +376
[AL] BOSTON 16 19 +426
[AL] DETROIT 13 15 +566
[AL] OAKLAND 12 14 +614
[AL] TEXAS 3 5 +1900
[AL] TORONTO 2 4 +2400
[AL] MINNESOTA 2 3 +3233
[AL] LOS ANGELES 1 3 +3233
[AL] SEATTLE 1 2 +4900
[AL] CLEVELAND 0 1 +9900
[AL] BALTIMORE 0 1 +9900
[AL] KANSAS CITY 0 1 +9900
[AL] TAMPA BAY 0 1 +9900

My investment in Cleveland has gone south, but Minnesota has jumped up a bit with their recent hot streak. I still think Minnesota has a shot to get good pitching down the stretch this season, and put themselves in a nice position.

Time to sell at $2? Not yet... I'll try to ride it a bit longer than this. Heck, I still think they'd be worth buying at $3.

[ctrane_crash]

Germany - Brazil

I decided not to be greedy today, and I would force myself to sell if I had a decent profit.

- Bought the under @61.

- Scoreless 1st half raised the sell to 86. I felt that both teams would try to score early in the 2nd half, so I sold @86 (+25). I consider buying the over @14, but don't want to flush 2/3's of my profit down the toilet, so I don't buy.

- Argentina scores 5 minutes into the half! I really should have bought the over @14! Under drops, so I buy it @76.

- At the 71 minute mark, Argentina's starting goalie is injured and has to come out. That doesn't look good, so I decide to punch out when the sell gets to 91. Sell at the 79 minute mark @91 (+15). Consider the over @9, but once again, I don't want to minimize my profit.

- 1 minute later, Germany scores! That was pure luck. I really should have bought the over @9!

- I jump in and buy the under which dropped to 67. The under quickly rises as the end of the game approaches. I decide to sell at a small profit, @79 (+12).

- As it turns out, neither team scored, so if I had stayed in, I would have earned an extra 21 (but that's the kind of greedy thinking that lost me 185 the other day. If they had scored, I could have lost the 67, for an overall loss for the match).

So I leave this game with a +52, looking forward to the Italy - Ukraine match. I may bet on penalty kicks, if it goes to that, but probably not.

[QuikSand]

Nicew to see the ticket on the Twins actually rising... I'm a little tempted to just sell at $5, but for now, I'll stick with them...


2006 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[AL] CHICAGO 20 23 +334
[AL] BOSTON 18 21 +376
[AL] DETROIT 17 20 +400
[AL] NEW YORK 12 15 +566
[AL] OAKLAND 10 12 +733
[AL] MINNESOTA 5 7 +1328
[AL] TEXAS 3 5 +1900
[AL] LOS ANGELES 2 4 +2400
[AL] TORONTO 2 4 +2400
[AL] SEATTLE 1 3 +3233
[AL] CLEVELAND 0 1 +9900
[AL] BALTIMORE 0 1 +9900
[AL] KANSAS CITY 0 1 +9900
[AL] TAMPA BAY 0 1 +9900


Cleveland seems to be in "give up" mode now, so that looks like a goner.

[QuikSand]

A new subject that gets my attention - even though we're way too far out to make any of these look very attractive:

BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC
Outcome Odds
FLOWER ALLEY 13-2
BERNARDINI 13-2
LAVA MAN 7-1
INVASOR 8-1
SUN KING 15-1
SILVER TRAIN 15-1
BRASS HAT 15-1
BANDINI 15-1
SURF CAT 15-1
PERFECT DRIFT 20-1
HARLINGTON 20-1
BUZZARD'S BAY 20-1
JAZIL 20-1
COMMENTATOR 20-1
HIGH LIMIT 20-1
BELLAMY ROAD 20-1
WILD DESERT 20-1
DISCREET CAT 20-1
STRONG CONTENDER 20-1
RATHOR 25-1
STEVIE WONDERBOY 25-1
GOULDINGS GREEN 25-1
BLUEGRASS CAT 25-1
DONT GET MAD 30-1
BROTHER DEREK 30-1
MAGNA GRADUATE 30-1
SUAVE 30-1
SUN RIVER 30-1
WANDERIN BOY 30-1
CONTANTE 30-1
DECLAN'S MOON 30-1
MAGNUM 30-1
WEST VIRGINIA 30-1
SEEK GOLD 30-1
DIXIE MEISTER 30-1
LATENT HEAT 30-1
WILKO 35-1
LAWYER RON 35-1
STEPPENWOLFER 40-1
CHOCTAW NATION 40-1
SPELLBINDER 40-1
SIR GREELEY 40-1
SWEETNORTHERNSAINT 40-1
GREATER GOOD 40-1
GIACOMO 45-1
FUNNY CIDE 45-1
ALUMNI HALL 45-1
BADGE OF SILVER 45-1
CONGRATS 60-1
CORINTHIAN 60-1
SUPER FROLIC 60-1

I saw INVASOR look very, very good last week - so he's one I'll be watching. And BANDINI might be decent value at that price as well.

[RPI-Fan]

Just letting you know that I enjoy reading your musings in this thread...

[QuikSand]

Heh, thanks. I seem to be doing more musing than betting... but given the results thus far, that's probably for the best.

[dixieflatline]

Nicew to see the ticket on the Twins actually rising... I'm a little tempted to just sell at $5, but for now, I'll stick with them...


2006 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[AL] CHICAGO 20 23 +334
[AL] BOSTON 18 21 +376
[AL] DETROIT 17 20 +400
[AL] NEW YORK 12 15 +566
[AL] OAKLAND 10 12 +733
[AL] MINNESOTA 5 7 +1328
[AL] TEXAS 3 5 +1900
[AL] LOS ANGELES 2 4 +2400
[AL] TORONTO 2 4 +2400
[AL] SEATTLE 1 3 +3233
[AL] CLEVELAND 0 1 +9900
[AL] BALTIMORE 0 1 +9900
[AL] KANSAS CITY 0 1 +9900
[AL] TAMPA BAY 0 1 +9900


Cleveland seems to be in "give up" mode now, so that looks like a goner.

You might want to rethink selling the twins. I think they might have peaked as far as their value goes. Here are the latest playoff odds from baseballprospectus:


Average wins by position in AL East: 98.2 92.8 86.7 73.4 67.2
AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Red Sox 51 32 .574 95.5 66.5 52.89305 10.57270 63.46575
Yankees 48 35 .597 93.7 68.3 37.17950 12.20956 49.38906
Blue Jays 47 38 .567 88.4 73.6 9.92103 5.31590 15.23694
Orioles 39 48 .465 71.0 91.0 .00440 .00137 .00577
Devil Rays 38 48 .451 69.6 92.4 .00202 .00055 .00257

Average wins by position in AL Central: 103.0 96.0 86.1 79.1 58.6
AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Tigers 57 28 .592 101.3 60.7 68.01622 24.13834 92.15455
White Sox 56 29 .567 97.4 64.6 31.27597 44.17465 75.45062
Twins 46 37 .513 84.6 77.4 .62555 2.93007 3.55562
Indians 39 45 .556 80.9 81.1 .08227 .59022 .67249
Royals 30 54 .407 58.6 103.4 .00000 .00000 .00000

Average wins by position in AL west: 87.0 82.1 78.2 73.6
AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Athletics 45 40 .495 81.2 80.8 25.85649 .02723 25.88372
Rangers 43 42 .559 84.3 77.7 52.32472 .02610 52.35083
Mariners 42 44 .498 77.0 85.0 8.55867 .00483 8.56350
Angels 40 45 .523 78.4 83.6 13.26011 .00849 13.26860

Average wins by AL Wild Card: 97.0


Not only do they think the twins are playing a bit over their heads but catching either the tigers or white sox appears to be a long shot. And that is just getting into the playoffs. BP really likes the rangers giving them a 52% shot at that division right now. With them buying at the same price the twins are selling for maybe their is some value there. Anyway, I have been pretty terrible with my predictions so far so I figured I would just post the entire AL odds.

[QuikSand]

Interesting - I might have a look to see what BP is using to genrate these percentages. I'm especialy interested in Texas there.

[QuikSand]

Today's market update:

2006 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[AL] CHICAGO 23 26 +284
[AL] BOSTON 17 20 +400
[AL] DETROIT 16 19 +426
[AL] NEW YORK 13 16 +525
[AL] OAKLAND 11 13 +669
[AL] LOS ANGELES 3 5 +1900
[AL] MINNESOTA 3 5 +1900
[AL] TEXAS 2 4 +2400
[AL] TORONTO 1 3 +3233
[AL] SEATTLE 0 2 +4900
[AL] CLEVELAND 0 1 +9900
[AL] BALTIMORE 0 1 +9900
[AL] KANSAS CITY 0 1 +9900
[AL] TAMPA BAY 0 1 +9900

[dixieflatline]

Interesting - I might have a look to see what BP is using to genrate these percentages. I'm especialy interested in Texas there.

BP runs a Monte Carlo forecaster using the remaining schedule, home field advantage, and each team's third order winning percentage and plays out the remaining season 1 million times and averages the result. The 3rd order winning % is found using the team offense and pitching/defense numbers normalized to the strength of schedule thus far (AEQR and AEQRA).

It certainly seems like the best forecaster out there but it has two issues that it doesn't deal with well. First is it doesn't match up starting pitching for each game it just finds the winning percentages, who is home, and rolls the dice. Obvoiusly, this is less important at this point of the season but as we get closer to the end this will play a roll.

The second issue is it doesn't deal with midseason pickups or players coming back from injury well. A team's 3rd order winning % is based off how they have done so far in games. Teams like Houston who just got Clemens back are being underated with this method. BP has tried to adjust for this by leveraging PECOTA but they don't really explain how this is done and the PECOTA numbers it uses is from the before the season starts. If a player is outperforming his 90% PECOTA numbers it is probably likely that he will outperform his 50% PECOTA numbers for the rest of the season. What PECOTA level should they use then? I really don't know, but I suspect they don't really know either. You can check out their webpage for a slightly more detailed explaination.

Getting back to the Rangers. BP suggests that they are underperforming by about 6 wins so far this season. The A's, on the other hand, are overperforming by 3 wins so far. Again this isn't really counting how someone like Rich Harden may affect the outcome but as it stands now, it appears the Rangers are being undervalued. As we saw from the World Cup though the markets seem pretty stable so I have no idea how much value their really is and when you should be looking to sell high if the market does move like it did with the Twins.

BTW, this is a very simple forecaster that has been tested the same way that climate models have been tested that predict more Global Warming in the future. If you don't believe in that stuff then you really shouldn't believe in this stuff as BP's forecaster has only been around for a few years and only use a few variables to make their predictions.

[QuikSand]

Well, an AL update:

2006 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[AL] DETROIT 19 22 +354
[AL] BOSTON 17 20 +400
[AL] NEW YORK 14 17 +488
[AL] CHICAGO 14 17 +488
[AL] MINNESOTA 6 8 +1150
[AL] OAKLAND 6 8 +1150
[AL] LOS ANGELES 6 8 +1150
[AL] TORONTO 3 5 +1900
[AL] TEXAS 2 4 +2400
[AL] SEATTLE 0 2 +4900
[AL] CLEVELAND 0 1 +9900
[AL] KANSAS CITY 0 1 +9900
[AL] BALTIMORE 0 1 +9900
[AL] TAMPA BAY 0 1 +9900

Minnesota can sell at $6 now, which is starting to look tempting to me. Buying Texas at $4 doesn't seem bad, either... I did a little digging on them myself following dixie's comments earlier, and it does look as though they are underperforming a bit. Hmmmmmm.

Not sure if I make a move right now, but I think I plan to fairly soon.

[QuikSand]

I am thinking that today might be my sell day for my shares of Minnesota...

2006 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[AL] DETROIT 21 24 +316
[AL] NEW YORK 18 21 +376
[AL] BOSTON 17 20 +400
[AL] MINNESOTA 9 12 +733
[AL] CHICAGO 8 11 +809
[AL] LOS ANGELES 7 9 +1011
[AL] OAKLAND 6 8 +1150
[AL] TORONTO 1 3 +3233
[AL] TEXAS 1 3 +3233
[AL] CLEVELAND 0 1 +9900
[AL] SEATTLE 0 1 +9900
[AL] BALTIMORE 0 1 +9900
[AL] KANSAS CITY 0 1 +9900
[AL] TAMPA BAY 0 1 +9900

[QuikSand]

Quick update: I am out at $9 per share for $90.

[QuikSand]

Might have sold at a good time for the Twinkies:

2006 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[AL] NEW YORK 22 25 +300
[AL] DETROIT 20 23 +334
[AL] BOSTON 14 17 +488
[AL] CHICAGO 10 13 +669
[AL] MINNESOTA 8 11 +809
[AL] OAKLAND 7 9 +1011
[AL] LOS ANGELES 7 9 +1011
[AL] TORONTO 1 3 +3233
[AL] TEXAS 0 2 +4900
[AL] SEATTLE 0 1 +9900
[AL] CLEVELAND 0 1 +9900
[AL] KANSAS CITY 0 1 +9900
[AL] BALTIMORE 0 1 +9900
[AL] TAMPA BAY 0 1 +9900

They have ticked down one notch in the last few days, after a fairl steady ascent to 9/12.

Meanwhile, Texas just gets cheaper and cheaper. Buying at $2 means that have to bump up at least three notches to become profitable... from 0/2 to 1/3, 2/4, and then to 3/5. Then we get into the clear, if things go well from there.

I'm still not sold - I think they are the most tempting team in this mix, but the lower odds teams don't move that easily, it seems.

[QuikSand]

But you never know...

2006 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[AL] NEW YORK 24 27 +270
[AL] DETROIT 23 26 +284
[AL] BOSTON 10 13 +669
[AL] MINNESOTA 10 13 +669
[AL] OAKLAND 8 11 +809
[AL] CHICAGO 8 11 +809
[AL] LOS ANGELES 6 8 +1150
[AL] TEXAS 1 3 +3233
[AL] TORONTO 0 2 +4900
[AL] CLEVELAND 0 1 +9900
[AL] SEATTLE 0 1 +9900
[AL] BALTIMORE 0 1 +9900
[AL] KANSAS CITY 0 1 +9900
[AL] TAMPA BAY 0 1 +9900

Anyone still want in on that $3 buy price for Texas? Ugh. This drift between the lower odds numbers reallu makes them tough to win *a little* in... either you really hit (like with MIN) or you likely end up just sitting right around the same slot (like most of my WC bets) without being able to get out for a profit.

[QuikSand]

On to new things...

2007 BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[BCS] NOTRE DAME 12 15 +566
[BCS] OHIO STATE 12 15 +566
[BCS] WEST VIRGINIA 11 14 +614
[BCS] SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 10 13 +669
[BCS] FLORIDA 7 10 +900
[BCS] AUBURN 7 10 +900
[BCS] TEXAS 7 9 +1011
[BCS] MICHIGAN 4 6 +1566
[BCS] MIAMI FLORIDA 4 6 +1566
[BCS] OKLAHOMA 4 6 +1566
[BCS] FLORIDA STATE 4 6 +1566
[BCS] LOUISVILLE 4 6 +1566
[BCS] CALIFORNIA 3 5 +1900
[BCS] LSU 3 5 +1900
[BCS] IOWA 3 5 +1900
[BCS] PENN STATE 1 3 +3233
[BCS] CLEMSON 1 3 +3233
[BCS] GEORGIA 1 3 +3233
[BCS] NEBRASKA 0 2 +4900
[BCS] VIRGINIA TECH 0 2 +4900
[BCS] OREGON 0 2 +4900

Right now, I am trying to decide what happens to the price for the winner of the Miami/FSU game. I like the price on FSU right now, but if their price only rises a couple dollars after beating Miami, then I don't think the value lies in getting on board right now, but rather after that game. I'm stuck.

[Radii]

On to new things...

2007 BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
[BCS] NOTRE DAME 12 15 +566
[BCS] OHIO STATE 12 15 +566
[BCS] WEST VIRGINIA 11 14 +614
[BCS] SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 10 13 +669
[BCS] FLORIDA 7 10 +900
[BCS] AUBURN 7 10 +900
[BCS] TEXAS 7 9 +1011
[BCS] MICHIGAN 4 6 +1566
[BCS] MIAMI FLORIDA 4 6 +1566
[BCS] OKLAHOMA 4 6 +1566
[BCS] FLORIDA STATE 4 6 +1566
[BCS] LOUISVILLE 4 6 +1566
[BCS] CALIFORNIA 3 5 +1900
[BCS] LSU 3 5 +1900
[BCS] IOWA 3 5 +1900
[BCS] PENN STATE 1 3 +3233
[BCS] CLEMSON 1 3 +3233
[BCS] GEORGIA 1 3 +3233
[BCS] NEBRASKA 0 2 +4900
[BCS] VIRGINIA TECH 0 2 +4900
[BCS] OREGON 0 2 +4900

Right now, I am trying to decide what happens to the price for the winner of the Miami/FSU game. I like the price on FSU right now, but if their price only rises a couple dollars after beating Miami, then I don't think the value lies in getting on board right now, but rather after that game. I'm stuck.


This scenario strikes me as being similar to the world cup betting earlier in the year. The loser of the FSU/Miami game will drop like a rock, but I would not be suprised to see the winner remain unchanged, while the extra equity that disappears from the loser of the game transfers up into Notre Dame/OSU/WVU and possibly USC.

[Godzilla Blitz]

Thanks for posting this. I really like the idea of an exchange. I've always been discouraged by the poor odds on a team winning a Super Bowl, etc.

I went ahead and set up an account as well.

What I think is interesting is that you can sell shares short as well. It ties up the value of the win position ($100 per contract) until you buy an equivalent contract to compensate for it, but if you've got some cash that you aren't planning to use for a bit, there may be some interesting bets along these lines. Especially if you can find something that will likely see a big shift in a couple of weeks or so.

[QuikSand]

I have been watching this market for a while, and this week was a big shakeup:

2006 HEISMAN TROPHY (CAN ADD PLAYER) (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
TROY SMITH (OHIO ST) 27 32 +212
ADRIAN PETERSON (OK) 17 22 +354
BRADY QUINN (NOTRE D) 15 19 +426
STEVE SLATON (W.VIR) 8 11 +809
GARRETT WOLF (NO.ILL) 4 6 +1566
MICHAEL HART (MICH) 2 4 +2400
CHRIS LEAK (FLO.) 1 3 +3233
TED GINN (OHIO ST) 1 3 +3233
KENNY IRONS (AUBURN) 1 3 +3233
KYLE WRIGHT (MIA) 0 2 +4900
MARSHAWN LYNCH (CAL.) 0 2 +4900
DREW STANTON (MICH.ST) 0 2 +4900
BRIAN BROHM (L-VILLE) 0 2 +4900
JOHN DAVID BOOTY 0 2 +4900

I'm already invested, but I'll wait a bit before revealing my play here.

[Neuqua]

I think my choice is well known :)

[QuikSand]

BET: 10 shares of Garrett Wolf to win the Heisman Trophy @$6 = $60


I don't think he has much of a shot to win, but I'm thining hie might easily drift up, especially as the lustre falls off some of the top names a bit. This was the first week Wolf was even listed -- as of last week, the prices for both Troy Smith and Adrian Peterson were over 30, so both of them plummeted seriously after last weekend. I watched Oklahoma lose (and Peterson fail to really shine) and kept seeing scxore updates from Ohio State where the headline pwerformance was RB Pittman with 36 yards and 2 TDs... neither exactly claimed the lead there.

I had been watching Peterson, even as his price rose into the 30s, as I'm basically convinced it's his to lose. But a few more big games from Irish boy muddles the situation a bit. The Heisman and its voting system makes this a bit more complex than who is actually best, but rather who makes the right impressions at the right times, and in the right regions.


In any event... I'll hope that we continue to have noboy all that coimpelling in the race, where a novelty guy like Wolf might get some attention. If he makes the list of finalists, he probably has to have a sell price of at least 10, right?

[QuikSand]

Updated for today:

2006 HEISMAN TROPHY (CAN ADD PLAYER) (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
TROY SMITH (OHIO ST) 31 36 +177
ADRIAN PETERSON (OK) 16 20 +400
BRADY QUINN (NOTRE D) 14 18 +455
STEVE SLATON (W.VIR) 8 11 +809
GARRETT WOLF (NO.ILL) 3 5 +1900
MICHAEL HART (MICH) 2 4 +2400
CHRIS LEAK (FLO.) 1 3 +3233
TED GINN (OHIO ST) 1 3 +3233
KENNY IRONS (AUBURN) 1 3 +3233
KYLE WRIGHT (MIA) 0 2 +4900
MARSHAWN LYNCH (CAL.) 0 2 +4900
DREW STANTON (MICH.ST) 0 2 +4900
BRIAN BROHM (L-VILLE) 0 2 +4900
JOHN DAVID BOOTY 0 2 +4900


Movement in the wrong direction, I fear.

[Toddzilla]

Wow - can you sell short on Quinn?

[QuikSand]

I don't have enough in my WSEX account to be able to do so effectively - it sets aside the full payoff for each share you short.

A friend, who is also watching this, suggested that Chris Leak might get a nice spiks if Florida beats Auburn this week. I'm reluctant to get into the lower tier entries too much, as my WC experience shows, you need a pretty big run to make that competitive. He'd have to make several notch jumps just to get past the $3 buy price.


Hmmmm...

[Neuqua]

Might as well see what happens after Wolfe and NIU play Iowa on October 26th. If he has a good game on national television against a Big Ten team, and still has the outstanding numbers he has, he could receive a considerable bump.

[QuikSand]

2006 HEISMAN TROPHY (CAN ADD PLAYER) (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
TROY SMITH (OHIO ST) 36 41 +143
ADRIAN PETERSON (OK) 16 20 +400
BRADY QUINN (NOTRE D) 14 18 +455
STEVE SLATON (W.VIR) 8 11 +809
GARRETT WOLF (NO.ILL) 5 7 +1328
MICHAEL HART (MICH) 2 4 +2400
CHRIS LEAK (FLO.) 1 3 +3233
TED GINN (OHIO ST) 1 3 +3233
KENNY IRONS (AUBURN) 1 3 +3233
KYLE WRIGHT (MIA) 0 2 +4900
MARSHAWN LYNCH (CAL.) 0 2 +4900
DREW STANTON (MICH.ST) 0 2 +4900
BRIAN BROHM (L-VILLE) 0 2 +4900
JOHN DAVID BOOTY 0 2 +4900

Crazy week for this market, it seems. What is going on with Troy Smith? He's making everyone else turn into a good value. Can he really win this thing easily on "field general" lore?

[MikeVic]

I started doing this as well. No idea what I'm doing, but I bought 3 contracts of the San Jose Sharks @ $7/contract... now to see what happens from here. :)

I'll probably try the live betting on Sunday during an NFL game.

[QuikSand]

2006 HEISMAN TROPHY (CAN ADD PLAYER) (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
TROY SMITH (OHIO ST) 33 38 +163
ADRIAN PETERSON (OK) 16 20 +400
BRADY QUINN (NOTRE D) 14 18 +455
STEVE SLATON (W.VIR) 8 11 +809
GARRETT WOLF (NO.ILL) 4 6 +1566
MICHAEL HART (MICH) 2 4 +2400
CHRIS LEAK (FLO.) 1 3 +3233
TED GINN (OHIO ST) 1 3 +3233
KENNY IRONS (AUBURN) 1 3 +3233
KYLE WRIGHT (MIA) 0 2 +4900
MARSHAWN LYNCH (CAL.) 0 2 +4900
DREW STANTON (MICH.ST) 0 2 +4900
BRIAN BROHM (L-VILLE) 0 2 +4900
JOHN DAVID BOOTY 0 2 +4900

After a serious blow to AP yesterday, and a lousy day for Wolfe, I expected more movement in these ratings. Maybe it takes a day or two to move... sell short on AP? Dump my shares of Wolfe? Buy Troy Smith? I don't know how to take advantage of this market.

If I had unlimited funds, I think I would indeed short Peterson today... that seems like a no-brainer.

[QuikSand]

Big moves in the market this week... sorry I didn't get in on the obvious stuff:

2006 HEISMAN TROPHY (CAN ADD PLAYER) (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
TROY SMITH (OHIO ST) 48 53 -112
BRADY QUINN (NOTRE D) 16 20 +400
STEVE SLATON (W.VIR) 9 12 +733
MICHAEL HART (MICH) 3 5 +1900
MARSHAWN LYNCH (CAL.) 1 3 +3233
GARRETT WOLF (NO.ILL) 1 3 +3233
TED GINN (OHIO ST) 1 3 +3233
ADRIAN PETERSON (OK) 0 5 +1900
KENNY IRONS (AUBURN) 0 2 +4900
DREW STANTON (MICH.ST) 0 2 +4900
CHRIS LEAK (FLO.) 0 2 +4900
KYLE WRIGHT (MIA) 0 2 +4900
BRIAN BROHM (L-VILLE) 0 2 +4900
JOHN DAVID BOOTY 0 2 +4900

[QuikSand]

Another market that I find interesting:

WHEN WILL CHICAGO PERF SEASON END? (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
WEEK 10 AT NYG 42 47 +112
WEEK 12 AT NE 15 19 +426
WEEK 11 AT NYJ 12 15 +566
WEEK 9 VS MIA 9 12 +733
CHICAGO WILL GO 16-0 7 10 +900
WEEK 14 AT STL 3 5 +1900
WEEK 13 VS MIN 1 3 +3233
WEEK 16 AT DET 1 3 +3233
WEEK 17 VS GB 0 2 +4900
WEEK 15 VS TB 0 2 +4900

In general, I think people tend to make poor judgments in this sort of setup. I haven't looked too closely, but I'm guessing that the earlier games will tend to be underlays... though the price on the Giants doesn't look too low to me.

[QuikSand]

A new subject that gets my attention - even though we're way too far out to make any of these look very attractive:

BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC
Outcome Odds
FLOWER ALLEY 13-2
BERNARDINI 13-2
LAVA MAN 7-1
INVASOR 8-1
SUN KING 15-1
SILVER TRAIN 15-1
BRASS HAT 15-1
BANDINI 15-1
SURF CAT 15-1
PERFECT DRIFT 20-1
HARLINGTON 20-1
BUZZARD'S BAY 20-1
JAZIL 20-1
COMMENTATOR 20-1
HIGH LIMIT 20-1
BELLAMY ROAD 20-1
WILD DESERT 20-1
DISCREET CAT 20-1
STRONG CONTENDER 20-1
RATHOR 25-1
STEVIE WONDERBOY 25-1
GOULDINGS GREEN 25-1
BLUEGRASS CAT 25-1
DONT GET MAD 30-1
BROTHER DEREK 30-1
MAGNA GRADUATE 30-1
SUAVE 30-1
SUN RIVER 30-1
WANDERIN BOY 30-1
CONTANTE 30-1
DECLAN'S MOON 30-1
MAGNUM 30-1
WEST VIRGINIA 30-1
SEEK GOLD 30-1
DIXIE MEISTER 30-1
LATENT HEAT 30-1
WILKO 35-1
LAWYER RON 35-1
STEPPENWOLFER 40-1
CHOCTAW NATION 40-1
SPELLBINDER 40-1
SIR GREELEY 40-1
SWEETNORTHERNSAINT 40-1
GREATER GOOD 40-1
GIACOMO 45-1
FUNNY CIDE 45-1
ALUMNI HALL 45-1
BADGE OF SILVER 45-1
CONGRATS 60-1
CORINTHIAN 60-1
SUPER FROLIC 60-1

I saw INVASOR look very, very good last week - so he's one I'll be watching. And BANDINI might be decent value at that price as well.

Dang. Though, admittedly, INVASOR went off at 8-1 on race day... so the future bet wasn't such a deal.

[k0ruptr]

Buy Colt Brennan in Heisman shares, its gotta be cheap.

[RPI-Fan]

Buy Colt Brennan in Heisman shares, its gotta be cheap.

That's not a good play for a market like this. This market doesn't reward players moving from "out of contention" to "maybe will get 3rd or 4th place". You only get rewarded for someon who moves from that 3rd-4th place range into the 1st-2nd place range (i.e. Troy Smith at beginning of the season to where he is now).

[Toddzilla]

Another market that I find interesting:

WHEN WILL CHICAGO PERF SEASON END? (1-Pay) $100 WIN
WEEK 9 VS MIA 9 12 +733$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[QuikSand]

So, I can't help but fiddle with this stuff, and I found another place to dabble.

2007 OSCARS BEST ACTRESS (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
HELEN MIRREN 74 79 -376
JUDI DENCH 6 10 +900
PENELOPE CRUZ 4 8 +1150
MERYL STREEP 4 8 +1150
KATE WINSLET 1 4 +2400
ANNETTE BENING 0 3 +3233
NICOLE KIDMAN 0 3 +3233
CATE BLANCHETT 0 3 +3233
JENNIFER HUDSON 0 3 +3233

I have been hearing insanely good buzz about Jennifer Hudson, and I believe she has a real shot to at least win the Golden Globe, and to be nominated for Best Actress (though I hear Supporting is a possibility). In any event -- I'm in cheap, and will be hoping that the buzz is significant enough. Honestly - with the GG's split system, she is away from the heavu hitters in this area, and has a real shot to win and gather some real momentum... if I can sell at something like $15-20, that' s a big gain for me.

Out of curiosity:

2007 OSCARS BEST ACTOR (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
FOREST WHITAKER 56 61 -156
PETER O'TOOLE 24 29 +244
LEONARDO DICAPRIO 8 12 +733
WILL SMITH 3 7 +1328
RYAN GOSLING 0 3 +3233
JACK NICHOLSON 0 3 +3233
GEORGE CLOONEY 0 3 +3233
SACHA BARON COHEN 0 3 +3233
DEREK LUKE 0 3 +3233


2007 OSCARS BEST PICTURE (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name Sell Buy
THE DEPARTED 30 35 +185
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA 29 34 +194
DREAMGIRLS 25 30 +233
THE QUEEN 3 7 +1328
BABEL 3 7 +1328
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE 0 3 +3233
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS 0 3 +3233
VOLVER 0 3 +3233
WORLD TRADE CENTER 0 3 +3233
LITTLE CHILDREN 0 3 +3233

[QuikSand]

In the interests of covering my bases...

2007 KENTUCKY DERBY
Outcome Odds
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ 13-2
STREET SENSE 10-1
TIZ WONDERFUL 10-1
CIRCULAR QUAY 12-1
GREAT HUNTER 12-1
STORMELLO 15-1
MINEFIELD 15-1
BELGRAVIA 15-1
ANY GIVEN SATURDAY 20-1
SCAT DADDY 25-1
BOUTROUS 25-1
DILEMMA 25-1
LIQUIDITY 25-1
NOTIONAL 30-1
GRASSHOPPER 30-1
UNBRIDLED EXPRESS 30-1
IDIDN'TDOANYTHING 35-1
ZANJERO 50-1
TEUFLESBERG 50-1
THE GREEN MONKEY 50-1
DREAMING OF ANNA 50-1
EZ WARRIOR 50-1
FIELD (ALL OTHERS) 3-10

I like CIRCULAR QUAY a lot, but I didn't see the race that propelled the top choice to this height. Anyway, this is a loser's market by far, unless there's someone way down the field you like, and betting in December isn't a smart play under nearly any circumstance.

[Marathoner]

Interesting thread. I don't bet, so I was wondering what the +/- numbers mean, i.e. Forrest Whittaker 56 61 -156?

[RPI-Fan]

Interesting thread. I don't bet, so I was wondering what the +/- numbers mean, i.e. Forrest Whittaker 56 61 -156?

It means you must bet $156 in order to earn a return of $100 (so you would take $156 out of your bank account, and if it wins you would later receive $256).

If it was +156, your bet of $100 would earn a return of $156. That is, take $100 out of your bank account, and if it wins, you get $256 back.

-110 is a standard "neutral" bet for NFL games, for example.

[QuikSand]

Not a great fit with the dynasty, really, but to me Clemson looks like the prototypical bummed-to-be-here bowl team. Today they are giving 10 points to Kentucky, who is probably thrilled to be in a bowl game. The money line on Kentucky is a pretty appetizing +300. I'm in, both ways, for the 1pm tilt.

[QuikSand]

I have been hearing insanely good buzz about Jennifer Hudson, and I believe she has a real shot to at least win the Golden Globe, and to be nominated for Best Actress (though I hear Supporting is a possibility). In any event -- I'm in cheap, and will be hoping that the buzz is significant enough. Honestly - with the GG's split system, she is away from the heavy hitters in this area, and has a real shot to win and gather some real momentum... if I can sell at something like $15-20, that' s a big gain for me.

Well, good news is she won the Golden Globe. Bad news is, she was only nominated for the Supporting Actress award.

I still have some hope that she gets a little bounce off that, but Helen Mirren is selling at something like 89, so it looks like there isn't mcuh room for anyone else.

[QuikSand]

And that one is over, Hudson is a nominee for best Supporting Actress, and I'm officially zeroed out.

[QuikSand]

So... on to new pursuits.

MO 1 1/26-28 (F) SMOKIN' ACES (3-DAY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE) (10:00 am ET)
Outcome $ Millions Money Line
OVER 13.5
+110

UNDER 13.5
-140


So, there's basically no way that this movie could clear 6,000 per screen, right? Right? The under has to be completely safe, even at -140. I'm in.

[QuikSand]

I can't believe I lost that bet.