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Flasch186
09-11-2006, 08:57 PM
This is the sort of thing that really ticks people off. IMO, there is no need to fudge numbers because eventually the truth comes out and makes the same numbers that always existed look worse than they would have had they just simply been reported, explained, and analyzed. PLUS, if those in charge of collecting and disseminating the information dont give the people who use the statistics to analyze events, gameplan for future tasks, and conclude the effectiveness of actions then that analysis could be flawed greatly. Its simply a mistake to try to fudge numbers and its a path that has been traveled these last six years, especially, and those responsible have had their hands slapped so many times that I wouldve thought that they, whoever they is, would learn. Regardless of the excuses cited in the story it is important to compare apples to apples in, basically everything when trying to show results and draw conclusions.





U.S. excluded car, suicide bombs from Iraq murder toll
POSTED: 7:25 p.m. EDT, September 11, 2006
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BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) -- The U.S. military did not count people killed by bombs, mortars, rockets or other mass attacks when it reported a dramatic drop in the number of murders in the Baghdad area last month, the U.S. command said Monday.

The decision to include only victims of drive-by shootings and those killed by torture and execution, usually at the hands of death squads, allowed U.S. officials to argue that a security crackdown that began in the capital August 7 had more than halved the city's murder rate.

But the types of slayings, including suicide bombings, that the U.S. excluded from the category of "murder" were not made explicit at the time. That led to confusion after Iraqi Health Ministry figures showed that 1,536 people died violently in and around Baghdad in August, nearly the same number as in July.

The figures raise serious questions about the success of the security operation launched by the U.S.-led coalition. When they released the murder rate figures, U.S. officials and their Iraqi counterparts were eager to show progress in restoring security in Baghdad at a time when Iraq appeared on the verge of civil war.

At the end of August, the top U.S. military spokesman in Iraq, Maj. Gen. William B. Caldwell, said violence had dropped significantly because of the operation. Caldwell said "attacks in Baghdad were well below the monthly average for July. Since August 7, the murder rate in Baghdad dropped 52 percent from the daily rate for July."

However, Caldwell did not make the key distinction that the rate he was referring to excluded a significant part of the daily violence in and around the capital. On Monday, for example, at least 20 of the 26 people slain in the capital were killed in bombings.

"These comments were intended to highlight some specific indicators of progress and were never stated in relation to broader casualty figures," U.S. military spokesman Lt. Col. Barry Johnson said Monday.

He said Caldwell "used murders and executions specifically because they are a key indicator of sectarian-related violence."

Johnson said other types of violence that are recorded by the military as "indicators for calculating casualties" include suicide attacks, mortar and rocket assaults, roadside bombs -- called improvised explosive devices, or IEDs -- small-arms fire "such as when used to fire in crowds after an IED attack versus an individual being murdered," and car bombs -- known as VBIEDs.

Under the military definition, murders include civilians killed "who are specifically targeted," but do not include executions or "those killed in indirect fire, IED, VBIED, or suicide attacks, all of which may or may not be related to sectarian violence."

Executions, as defined by the U.S. military, include people who have been held, tortured and then killed and are considered to be motivated by ethnic or sectarian reasons -- unless they are some form of reprisal killing or related to crime.

Johnson would not provide the figures used to calculate the percentages and said the military would not give detailed information about trends because that could provide "our enemy information they need to adjust their tactics and procedures to be more effective against us."

He added that although the military collected data on violence from as many sources as possible and used a consistent methodology, "we do not claim our information represents every possible victim of violence."

The confusion over numbers underscores the difficulty of obtaining accurate death tolls in Iraq, which lacks the reporting and tracking systems of most modern nations. When top Iraqi political officials cite death numbers, they often refuse to say where the figures came from.

The Health Ministry, which tallies civilian deaths, relies on reports from government hospitals and morgues. The Interior Ministry, which commands the police, compiles figures from police stations, while the Defense Ministry reports deaths only among army soldiers and insurgents killed in combat.

The United Nations keeps its own count, based largely on reports from the Baghdad morgue and the Health Ministry. A U.N. official said it would be announcing August figures later.

clintl
09-11-2006, 10:06 PM
So basically, Lt. Col. Johnson is incapable of constructing a coherent excuse for fudging the numbers.

Glengoyne
09-12-2006, 01:27 AM
In other news murders are down, but deaths resulting from car bombings and Improvised explosive devices hold steady.

I'm curious as to what the actual numbers were. I mean the details. Did it drop from 40 murders to 20, while untargetted deaths held at around 1300?

Flasch186
09-12-2006, 06:38 AM
In other news murders are down, but deaths resulting from car bombings and Improvised explosive devices hold steady.

I'm curious as to what the actual numbers were. I mean the details. Did it drop from 40 murders to 20, while untargetted deaths held at around 1300?

...and were on the same page here. Whatever the numbers are, are the numbers and people who are interested ought to be able to see them. More importantly, people who need the accurate numbers also ought to be able to get them and count on them being based on the same formula the month before if they are using them for comparison sake.