Crappy BCS analysis / prediction thread

[Craptacular]

I may be one of the few people who actually like the BCS, if for no other reason that we get to play with numbers and "what-if" scenarios. In this thread, I'll offer some facts, analysis, opinions, and predictions for not only the BCS Championship, but all of the BCS Bowls. I hope to keep this thread updated over the next few weeks. At the time of posting, Texas and USC were both still playing, so things could be obsolete right away.

First of all, I'll give the Crappy BCS Primer:

* Rankings determined by 1/3 Harris Poll, 1/3 Coaches' Poll, 1/3 average of six computer rankings
* National Championship pits #1 vs. #2
* Four other BCS bowls: Rose, Fiesta, Orange, Sugar
* Automatic berths for champions of ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, SEC
* Highest ranked non-BCS conference champ gets automatic berth if in top-12 or in top-16 AND ranked above any BCS conference champ
* Notre Dame gets in if in top-8
* If berth still available, #3 gets in
* If another berth still available, #4 gets in
* Remaining berths decided by individual bowls, who may select any team in top-14 and having 9+ wins
* No conference may have more than two teams in the BCS

Bowl Tie-Ins:
* Rose Bowl - Big 10 champ vs. Pac 10 champ
* Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 champ vs. at-large
* Orange Bowl - ACC champ vs. at-large
* Sugar Bowl - SEC champ vs. at-large
note: Bowls that "lose" a team to the National Championship game get first crack at selecting at-large teams

Teams still alive for automatic berths:
* ACC - Georgia Tech, Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College, Clemson(? ... not sure about that one yet)
* Big East - Rutgers, Louisville, West Virginia
* Big 10 - Ohio St, Michigan
* Big 12 - Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma
* Pac 10 - Cal, USC, Oregon, Wash St(?), Oregon St(?) ... have to check the scenarios
* SEC - Florida, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU
* Others - Notre Dame, Boise St ... realistically, that's probably it

Teams still alive for National Championship, and what they need to happen (my opinion only):
* Ohio St -- beat Michigan
* Michigan -- beat OSU
* Florida -- win out and hope OSU beats Michigan, or Michigan destroys OSU
* Texas -- win out and OSU beats Michigan; Florida loses; may need USC loss
* USC -- win out and OSU beats Michigan; Florida loses; may not need Texas loss
* Arkansas -- win out, and hope Florida and LSU win their other games; Michigan, Texas and USC lose
* Rutgers -- win out, crush WVU; hope OSU beats Michigan by 30+; Florida, Texas, USC, and Arkansas lose

I really don't think Notre Dame, West Virginia, or anyone else can finish ahead of the OSU - Michigan loser.

I'll make my current BCS bowl predictions after the Texas - KSU game ends.

edit: Added rule about no conference having more than two teams in BCS
edit: added BC to ACC list

[Craptacular]

OK, so scratch Texas off the NC list. ;)

As promised, here is my first crystal ball prediction for the BCS bowls.

Rose Bowl - Michigan (at-large) over Rutgers (Big East champ)
Fiesta Bowl - Texas (Big 12 champ) over Boise St (at-large)
Orange Bowl - Florida (at-large) over Georgia Tech (ACC champ)
Sugar Bowl - Arkansas (SEC champ) over Notre Dame (at-large)
Nat'l Champ - OSU (#1, Big 10 champ) over USC (#2, Pac 10 champ)

[Craptacular]

OK, I'm going to bed, figuring I'll wake up and see USC blew it. ;) Anyone feel free to chime in with predictions, analysis, etc.

[WVUFAN]

Rose Bowl: Ohio State (at-large) vs USC (Pac-10)
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (Big 12) vs Florida (at-large)
Sugar Bowl: Wake Forest (ACC) vs. West Virginia (Big East)
Orange Bowl: Arkansas (SEC) vs. Boise State (at-large)
National Championship: Michigan vs. Notre Dame

[Mr. Wednesday]

My analysis of ND vs. Arkansas:
Without having an in-depth analysis from people who've looked closely at the Razorbacks statistically, my impression of them is that they have a good running game, OK passing game, and decent defense that's been untested against the pass since the Southern Cal game where they got thumped. The only passing attack worth discussing in the SEC was Tennessee's, before Ainge got hurt, and Arkansas didn't play them, they played Tennessee after Ainge got hurt.

That suggests, to me, that ND might be a bad matchup for Arkansas. ND's biggest weaknesses on defense are accurate QBs and big plays, but a team really needs to have multiple weapons to keep the Irish from scheming to take away the one player and I'm not sure Arkansas can do that -- witness ND shutting down Calvin Johnson in the second half of the GT game, although how much of that was ND and how much was GT ineptitude is open to question. Meanwhile, the one team that's beaten Arkansas is one with an accurate quarterback and a multidimensional passing attack -- exactly what the Irish would bring to the table.

(Outside of the top two teams, the team in the BCS mix that would really scare me right now is Rutgers. I think their defense could shut down the Irish attack the same way they shut down Louisville.)

[Mantle2600]

Rose Bowl: Michigan (at-large) vs USC (Pac-10)
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (Big 12) vs Florida (at-large)
Sugar Bowl: Wake Forest (ACC) vs. West Virginia (Big East)
Orange Bowl: Arkansas (SEC) vs. Boise State (at-large)
National Championship: Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

Fixed it for ya.:D

[k0ruptr]

Rose Bowl: Ohio State (at-large) vs USC (Pac-10)
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (Big 12) vs Florida (at-large)
Sugar Bowl: Wake Forest (ACC) vs. West Virginia (Big East)
Orange Bowl: Arkansas (SEC) vs. Boise State (at-large)
National Championship: Michigan vs. Notre Dame

damn, if ND plays for the national championship that would be a sad sad day.

[Mantle2600]

I would love to see us roll over ND in the Glendale again

[WVUFAN]

Fixed it for ya.:D

Actually, I did screw it up ... Arkansas, as the SEC Champ, will go the Sugar Bowl to face WVU, and it'll be Wake Forest and Boise State in the Orange.

[WVUFAN]

damn, if ND plays for the national championship that would be a sad sad day.

I would agree, but I think it'll happen.

Arkansas will beat Florida in the SEC title game, but won't bypass Notre Dame in the polls because ... well, it's Notre Dame.

USC will lose to ND, but will beat Cal and win the Pac-10.

Rutgers loses to WVU, as WVU will be hyped and they're playing in Morgantown.

Michigan beats Ohio State, and the voters will not want a rematch, so they'll put OSU to 4th.

Louisville falls out because they had their single loss too late in the season to recover in the polls.

Who does this leave? Notre Dame, who easily bypasses a 1-loss Arkansas and West Virginia for the BCS Title spot. And they'll get crushed by Michigan.

[rowech]

WVU, I think you're off on quite a bit. ND sucks. I agree WVU beats Rutgers thus eliminating all the Big East teams. IF OSU loses to Michigan, by 7 or less, there will definitely be a rematch. Arkansas and Florida is a little more crazy.

With all of that said, I look for an undefeated OSU team to play the winner of the SEC.

[General Mike]

If ND runs the table they will be playing in Glendale Arizona on Jan 8.

[Scarecrow]

Rose Bowl - Arkansas (SEC champ) over USC (Pac 10 champ)
Fiesta Bowl - Texas (Big 12 champ) over Notre Dame (at-large)
Orange Bowl - Wake Forest (ACC champ) over Florida (at-large)
Sugar Bowl - Boise St (at-large) over Rutgers (Big East champ)
Nat'l Champ - Michigan (at-large) over Ohio State (#1, Big 10 champ)


The Sugar Bowl will have the 2 undefeated teams playing. Michigan, even though they lose to Ohio State next week, will be ranked #2 in the BcS and will avenge their loss on a neutral field for the 'championship'.

Maybe this will be the season that will push for a playoff system.

[General Mike]

Rose Bowl - Arkansas (SEC champ) over USC (Pac 10 champ)
Fiesta Bowl - Texas (Big 12 champ) over Notre Dame (at-large)
Orange Bowl - Wake Forest (ACC champ) over Florida (at-large)
Sugar Bowl - Boise St (at-large) over Rutgers (Big East champ)
Nat'l Champ - Michigan (at-large) over Ohio State (#1, Big 10 champ)


The Sugar Bowl will have the 2 undefeated teams playing. Michigan, even though they lose to Ohio State next week, will be ranked #2 in the BcS and will avenge their loss on a neutral field for the 'championship'.

Maybe this will be the season that will push for a playoff system.

That's an impossible scenario. If the SEC Champ does not go to the National Title game, they have to go to the Sugar Bowl.

[sooner333]

The Michigan-Ohio State rematch would be the scenario I thought least likely for a re-match. I always thought two teams like OU-Texas or Florida-Tennessee, two rivals who play early in the season and are in the same division of a conference with a championship would be most likely for a rematch due to the time and the impossibility for a re-match beforehand (see Miami-FSU). Michigan-OSU can't play eachother twice, but they play the last week of the season. If they do play eachother again, it will be like Oklahoma-Nebraska in the Orange Bowl in the 1970s when Nebraska made it as the Big 8 Champ and the Orange Bowl invited OU for a rematch.

[Swaggs]

No way ND should play in the NC over the Michigan/Ohio State loser.

[sooner333]

I hate Notre Dame, but like it when they get in BCS bowl games only because they are great betting opportunities against!

[Craptacular]

OK, we can narrow down the teams still alive. With USC's win, the Pac 10 is simple ... winner of Cal vs USC on Saturday takes the conference. Clemson is, in fact, eliminated in the ACC Atlantic. I've also added Brigham Young, because there is a small chance they could sneak into the Top 16 and be ahead of the ACC champ. Georgia Tech still has to play at Georgia, and a couple of teams on th other side can still lose a game but win the division. Boise St would also have to lose and fall back so that BYU was the top-rated champion of a non-BCS conference. Yes, it's a longshot, but they are currently high enough in the polls and computers where they can make it if all hell breaks loose in front of them.

Teams still alive for automatic berths:
* ACC - Georgia Tech, Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College
* Big East - Rutgers, Louisville, West Virginia
* Big 10 - Ohio St, Michigan
* Big 12 - Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma
* Pac 10 - Cal, USC
* SEC - Florida, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU
* Others - Notre Dame, Boise St, Brigham Young

edit to add BC

[Craptacular]

I'll save most of my comments for the title game possibilities 'til after the new BCS rankings are out, but I wanted to point out that in the two computer rankings released so far, Rutgers has gone from 12th in both to 2nd in both, ahead of Ohio St. Wow.

[st.cronin]

WAG:

Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Louisville
Orange Bowl: Maryland vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Notre Dame

Championship game: Buckeyes vs. Trojans

[sooner333]

If OU doesn't get screwed at Oregon, where do you think they'd be at right now?

I'm going to say around #7 because WVU would have fallen behind them after the loss to UL. Rutgers wouldn't have gotten ahead of them because OU wouldn't have fallen to 23 after the loss to Texas. Texas would have gone behind them after the "bad" loss to K-State. That means that OU is around #7 with three teams ahead of them guaranteed to lose at least once, meaning a possible BCS automatic at being #3 or #4 as a non-auto qualifier otherwise.

[General Mike]

http://www.footballfoundation.com/pdf/bcs06/111206l.pdf

[sooner333]

Rutgers getting some Computer Poll Love

[SFL Cat]

Screw all of you...Rutgers wins it all!!!!!! :)

[Cuckoo]

If OU doesn't get screwed at Oregon, where do you think they'd be at right now?

There are still a couple of weeks left, of course. And it's still a possibility that Texas, with their injuries, drops one to A&M. But assuming that things play out as most would predict, it'll be exactly what Stoops, the team, OU fans, and David Boren were worried about. The school would be losing millions of dollars by not getting a BCS game because of the screw up.

All the pundits bitched about Boren writing a letter about the game. But the scenario he was afraid of would come into play. For a guy that's job it is to worry about where the money goes, perhaps he wasn't simply whining afterall as so many claimed.

Now, don't misunderstand. I'm by no means saying that OU deserves to be in the title talk. Even in a somewhat watered-down season, OU is not an elite team this year. But you have to give them credit for what they've accomplished given their setbacks. At the very least, Stoops needs to be high on the list for Coach of the Year consideration.

Imagining what could of been is something we could do all day, though, I suppose. If they just would've beaten Texas... ;)

[st.cronin]

Does anybody know why the computers like Rutgers so much?

[Swaggs]

Does anybody know why the computers like Rutgers so much?

I would guess that being undefeated (while being obvious it is still somewhat overlooked) really does count.

[st.cronin]

I would guess that being undefeated (while being obvious it is still somewhat overlooked) really does count.

While I can see why that would put them ahead of Florida, I'm not sure why it would put them ahead of Ohio State.

[sooner333]

Big Ten is down this year, Ohio State didn't play the third-toughest team in conference, and their best win just lost on the road to Kansas State, while Rutgers' best win has no other losses.

Computers don't have to baseline their polls on the last week's polls, so it can look back at the whole scheme of things. A human voter is unlikely to penalize Ohio State for having their great wins like Iowa and Penn State not look as good at the end, but a formula might look at every team's season as a whole to come up with a ranking.

[Young Drachma]

Rose Bowl - Arkansas (SEC champ) over USC (Pac 10 champ)
Fiesta Bowl - Texas (Big 12 champ) over Notre Dame (at-large)
Orange Bowl - Wake Forest (ACC champ) over Florida (at-large)
Sugar Bowl - Boise St (at-large) over Rutgers (Big East champ)
Nat'l Champ - Michigan (at-large) over Ohio State (#1, Big 10 champ)


The Sugar Bowl will have the 2 undefeated teams playing. Michigan, even though they lose to Ohio State next week, will be ranked #2 in the BcS and will avenge their loss on a neutral field for the 'championship'.

Maybe this will be the season that will push for a playoff system.


Boise State won't beat Rutgers. No way. I've seen them play and I tell you, Ray Rice would run through them like bad chinese food.

[Young Drachma]

Screw all of you...Rutgers wins it all!!!!!! :)

If they make it there, they'll win it all. Schiano is no joke and these boys are on a mission.

[Joe]

With the way the BCS looks today, its shaping up like the championship will have the winner of OSU/Michigan face the winner of ND/USC. That is, if WVU defeats Rutgers and USC defeats Cal, 2 things that have a definite chance of happening. Probably as close to a playoff we'll ever see in college football.

[ISiddiqui]

Btw, these:

http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/eligibility

Are the rules for BCS bowls selections, including the automatic tie ins, the bowl order of selection for opponents to the auto tie-ins, etc. I recommend it being read to determine who goes where (remember the Big East Champ is treated like an at large team for selection process).

Interestingly accordingly to the rules, if USC loses to Notre Dame (and beats everyone else), they could both face each other again in the Rose Bowl, as long as the SEC Champ goes through with one win. The Rose Bowl would lose the Big 10 Champ (OSU or Michigan) as the #1 team would have first pick of replacements among qualified at large teams, and everyone wants ND, right? However, after the selection, the conferences and ND can adjust that because it would lead to ND and USC playing again... and they just may overrule the Rose Bowl.

As for at large selections, the bowls losing the #1 and #2 teams (or the Rose that could lose both) get first picks, followed by the Sugar, Orange, Fiesta (remember the Rose has tie ins for both picks).

My view (assuming USC wins out):

National Championship Game: Ohio State (#1, Big Ten Champ) vs. Southern California (#2, Pac-10 Champ)
Rose Bowl: Notre Dame (at large) vs. Florida (at large)*
Fiesta Bowl - Texas (Big 12 Champ) vs. Boise State (at large)
Orange Bowl - Wake Forest (ACC Champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East)
Sugar Bowl - Arkansas (SEC Champ) vs. Michigan (at large)*

(Assumption is that the conferences and ND will not allow Michigan and ND to play again in a bowl as they have already played in the regular season)

[Craptacular]

Interestingly accordingly to the rules, if USC loses to Notre Dame (and beats everyone else), they could both face each other again in the Rose Bowl, as long as the SEC Champ goes through with one win. The Rose Bowl would lose the Big 10 Champ (OSU or Michigan) as the #1 team would have first pick of replacements among qualified at large teams, and everyone wants ND, right? However, after the selection, the conferences and ND can adjust that because it would lead to ND and USC playing again... and they just may overrule the Rose Bowl.

As for at large selections, the bowls losing the #1 and #2 teams (or the Rose that could lose both) get first picks, followed by the Sugar, Orange, Fiesta (remember the Rose has tie ins for both picks).

I didn't post the at-large selection order, other than saying the bowl losing the title game participants goes first, but I did follow the order when making my picks. In my scenario, USC wins out (including a close one over Notre Dame), so the Rose Bowl loses both its teams and gets two picks. Michigan is the obvious choice, but then I think they take undefeated Rutgers, in part because Michigan and Notre Dame have already played. The Sugar Bowl goes next and gobbles up Notre Dame, who with the loss to USC may not be in the top 8 (and therefore have an automatic entry), but they still have 9+ wins and are in the top 14, so they get picked because they are Notre Dame. The Orange Bowl gladly takes SEC title-game loser Florida, leaving the Fiesta Bowl to take automatic qualifier Boise St.

[ISiddiqui]

I think the money that Notre Dame always brings with it may be too much for the Rose Bowl to reject. Especially since the National Championship Game a week later will be held at the Rose Bowl, and in our scenarioes, it'll be Big 10 winner vs. Pac 10 winner (ie, traditional Rose Bowl matchup), and perhaps that'll be enough to satisfy tradition and history.

[Crim]

... the National Championship Game a week later will be held at the Rose Bowl...

Erm, it's in Arizona this year, right? The Rose bowl, I mean?

[Craptacular]

The National Championship is in Arizona this year, site of the Fiesta Bowl which will be played as normal. The Rose Bowl is still in Pasadena.

[ISiddiqui]

Oops... I thought it was the Rose Bowl's turn. Or was that last year's game?

[Craptacular]

Oops... I thought it was the Rose Bowl's turn. Or was that last year's game?

Yes, the Rose Bowl hosted the title game last year. This is the first year of the rotating title game after the normal four bowls, and the order goes the sites of the Fiesta Bowl (Jan '07), Sugar Bowl (Jan '08), Orange Bowl (Jan '09), Rose Bowl (Jan '10).

[digamma]

OK, we can narrow down the teams still alive. With USC's win, the Pac 10 is simple ... winner of Cal vs USC on Saturday takes the conference. Clemson is, in fact, eliminated in the ACC Atlantic. I've also added Brigham Young, because there is a small chance they could sneak into the Top 16 and be ahead of the ACC champ. Georgia Tech still has to play at Georgia, and a couple of teams on th other side can still lose a game but win the division. Boise St would also have to lose and fall back so that BYU was the top-rated champion of a non-BCS conference. Yes, it's a longshot, but they are currently high enough in the polls and computers where they can make it if all hell breaks loose in front of them.

Teams still alive for automatic berths:
* ACC - Georgia Tech, Maryland, Wake Forest
* Big East - Rutgers, Louisville, West Virginia
* Big 10 - Ohio St, Michigan
* Big 12 - Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma
* Pac 10 - Cal, USC
* SEC - Florida, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU
* Others - Notre Dame, Boise St, Brigham Young

BC is also still alive in the ACC. If they win out and Wake loses twice, they would win a two team tie-breaker over Maryland and get to Jacksonville to play GT.

[Craptacular]

BC is also still alive in the ACC. If they win out and Wake loses twice, they would win a two team tie-breaker over Maryland and get to Jacksonville to play GT.

Doh! You're absolutely correct. I was so absorbed by trying to figure out if Clemson was still alive that I completely forgot to put BC on the list, even though I knew they were. I think my mind looked at Georgia Tech in place of BC, when I was looking at three (or four) team possibilities. Thanks.

[Craptacular]

National Championship Outlook:

The biggest monkey wrench that I did not see happening when I started my initial analysis was that Kansas St would beat Texas. Not only does it eliminate Texas from consideration, but it hurt Ohio State quite a bit in the eyes of the computers. Now, the polls are obviously a bigger factor than the computers, but the computers could still make a difference. Why does this matter? Well, it opens up a debate about what scenario would be better for a team like USC, Florida, Rutgers, Notre Dame, etc ... do they want Michigan to win or Ohio State to win?

Last Saturday morning, most people would probably have said it would be better if Ohio State won. Now, I'm not so sure. Let's take a look at a few points about the computers, and then the human polls.

Michigan furthered their stranglehold on the computers, while Ohio State fell from one 1st and five 2nds to one 1st, one 2nd, three 3rds, and even a 6th, despite winning handily. In the four of the five computers Michigan leads in, that lead is substantial over #2. In the one poll Ohio State leads in, their advantage over Michigan is not very large.

The Colley Matrix has a great page, which allows you to add or remove game results to get an idea of what the rankings would look like. Currently, Michigan is #1 by quite a bit over Rutgers, who has a very small lead over #3 Ohio State. USC, Florida, and Notre Dame follow. To give you an idea of how big Michigan's lead is, the gap between them and #2 Rutgers is bigger than the gap from #2 Rutgers to #7 Louisville. Also, if you assume Michigan's win over Notre Dame never happened (as if they didn't play, not Notre Dame winning), Michigan would still be #1 in that ranking. Now, let's take the current standings and plug in an Ohio State win over Michigan (no other games assumed). OSU moves up to #1, but Michigan only drops to #2. Conversely, plug in a Michigan win, and while they stay #1, Ohio State falls from #3 to #6, behind USC, Florida, and Notre Dame. If you assume that this example is somewhat representative of all of the computers, an Ohio State win might still leave Michigan in a strong position, while a Michigan win might drop Ohio State too far for them to have any chance at a rematch. Remember that the computers only make up 1/3 of the BCS ranking. However, that's enough for a scenario in which OSU falls to #2 in both human polls, but if the computers drop them to, say, 4th or 5th, they get passed by another one-loss team in the BCS. An Ohio St win *may* only drop Michigan to 2nd or 3rd in most computers, which would not necessarily be enough to hurt them if they are #2 in the human polls.

Speaking of the human polls, although we never know what they're going to do, the Texas loss gives Michigan another edge. They still have a strong case that if they lose, they should at least be ranked ahead of Notre Dame, even if the Irish win out. Ohio State had a similar cushion with Texas. However, if Ohio State loses, what arguments do they have to stay ahead of a Notre Dame or USC, Florida or Arkansas, Rutgers, etc.?? Their only "quality" win lost a little of its luster. Michigan's wins over Notre Dame and Wisconsin might give them a better chance to stay near the top of the polls. Finally, since the game is at Ohio State, voters might not punish a Michigan loss as much as an Ohio State loss.

So, to make a long story short, I'm starting to think USC, Florida, Rutgers, etc., might want to root for Michigan on Saturday.

[ISiddiqui]

Wow... very good and thorough analysis. I'm impressed. It all falls to the human polls in the end, as you said, and who knows what crazy crap they are going to do. Though with the computers it seems Michigan winning is better for avoiding a UM-OSU matchup.

[Craptacular]

The craziness in my life hasn't allowed me to keep this updated as I would have liked, but before the final BCS rankings come out, I wanted to look at the computers and see how Florida and Michigan might compare. I'm guessing the voters will have them fairly close. Remember, the BCS points from the human polls are based on the percentage of total votes, not the rank. So, it doesn't matter so much who is #2 and #3, but how the total votes pan out. In my view, the likelihood that the human polls are close enough so that the computers could make the difference is high. For the computer component, the BCS treats each computer ranking like one human voter, throws out the highest and lowest one for each team, and averages the other four rankings.

Going into the week, this is how Florida and Michigan stood in the various rankings, as well as my total guess as to what will happen:

Anderson - Hester: Mich #3, Flor #4, but very, very close -- I think the Florida win will propel them to #2 behind OSU, and Michigan will be #3 (USC was #2)

Billingsley: Mich #2 (301.5), Flor #4 (287.4) -- Billingsley system makes it hard for teams to make big jumps in the rankings. I don't think Florida's win will vault them over Michigan ... 14 points seems too much to make up. For example, USC gained a little less than 8 points for beating #6 Notre Dame last week. Arkansas was ranked #14 in his system this week, so I can't see Florida getting above Michigan. My guess, Mich #2, Flor #3.

Colley: Flor #3, Mich #4 -- Colley's website lets you input up to 5 results and see how the ratings would change. OF course, this does not allow you to input ALL of the games of the week, which all have an impact. However, after putting in the results of the UCLA, Florida, Oklahoma, WF, and WVU wins, Florida jumps to #1, over OSU. Michigan is #3. Due to the relatively small number of other D-1 games, and the fact that Florida's lead over OSU and Michigan in that scenario is big enough, I'll assume those will be the results.

Massey: Flor #3, Mich #4 -- Massey's ratings weight recent performance more, so the Florida win might allow them to make a bigger jump. Plus, Arkansas was rated #6 coming into the game, so that should help out qute a bit. Michigan's biggest wins were early in the year. I'm not exactly sure if Florida will be able to jump OSU for 1st, but it could be very close. For the sake of this exercise, I'll assume Florida WILL move to #1, with Michigan moving up to #3 behind OSU.

Sagarin: Mich #2, Flor #4 -- Michigan had a decent lead over Florida, and Sagarin didn't have Florida's schedule coming into this week ranked as highly as most of the other rankings. So, I'm not sure if the SEC title will vault Florida over Michigan here. Mich #2 and Flor #3.

Wolfe: Mich #2, Flor #4 -- Again, Michigan seemed to have a big enough lead on Florida to stay ahead of them. Last week's win by #3 USC over then #4 Notre Dame still left USC quite a bit behind Michigan, so I don't think Florida's win over #8 Arkansas will give them a big enough boost. We'll say Mich #2 and Flor #3.

So, based on my guesses, we'll have:
Michigan -- 3, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2 -- so, 0.940 for BCS computer component
Florida -- 2, 3, 1, 1, 3, 3 -- so 0.950 for BCS computer component

Again, these are just my guesses. If it works out this way, Michigan could lose some ground to Florida in the human polls (based on current standings), and still end up #2. So, how many people will be like Craig James and vault Florida over Michigan on their ballot?

[Craptacular]

The only update so far is that Sagarin's ratings have been released. Florida gained on Michigan, but did not pass them. OSU, Michigan, Florida.

[rowech]

Florida isn't going to take Michigan in the computers because of Arkansas' loss to LSU. The voters are simply going to have to vault Florida ahead of Michigan to get Florida to the title game. Some will, but I don't think there will be enough of them.

[cartman]

I predict that if Michigan gets the nod, people will clamor that Florida got robbed. I predict that if Florida gets the nod, people will clamor that Michigan got robbed. Regardless of Michigan or Florida getting the nod, there will be many letters to the editor of the Idaho Statesman claiming that Boise State was robbed.

[Honolulu_Blue]

I think Florida will get the nod, but after having watched them on back-to-back weekends there is no way in hell they are the second best team in the nation.

[Buccaneer]

I predict that if Michigan gets the nod, people will clamor that Florida got robbed. I predict that if Florida gets the nod, people will clamor that Michigan got robbed. Regardless of Michigan or Florida getting the nod, there will be many letters to the editor of the Idaho Statesman claiming that Boise State was robbed.

And of course everyone will already know who got robbed the most: Notre Dame. Not only should they be playing in the big game but should already be declared the winner.

[HerRealName]

Looks like Florida gets the number two ranking in the Coaches' Poll...

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/usatpoll.htm

Funny that Tresell abstained.

[Craptacular]

The most important numbers in the coaches' poll, as far as the BCS is concerned:

Florida = 0.9484
Michigan = 0.9316

[ISiddiqui]

And of course everyone will already know who got robbed the most: Notre Dame. Not only should they be playing in the big game but should already be declared the winner.

I feel angered by such tragedy! :mad:

[kcchief19]

Interesting ... if Florida does overtake Michigan, Michigan gets an automatic bid for the BCS and the Sugar Bowl gets the second and third selections after the Rose Bowl replaces Ohio State.

Does Michigan go to the Rose Bowl? Word is that the Rose Bowl has already told Michigan they don't want them again this year because they've been there frequently of late and their sales have been down. They apparently really want LSU, and LSU wants the Rose Bowl. So lets' say that ends up being USC/LSU.

Sugar Bowl gets the next two selections, one of which can be an at-large team. This is where it could get interesting. They apparently want no part of Louisville (seem locked into orange Bowl vs. Georgia Tech) or Boise State (Fiesta). So Michigan seems a lock. But who do they play? Notre Dame? Not sure they want to rematch a blow out. I'm leaning toward Auburn -- it's an SEC team. Virginia Tech will likely be eligible, as could be West Virginia. Tennessee or Arkansas will also likely be eligible.

Notre Dame could end up out in the cold.

[henry296]

Isn't Louisville guaranteed Orange Bowl as Big East Champ?

[MJ4H]

Notre Dame could end up out in the cold.


http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y257/Gorgonian14/smiley1.jpg

[ISiddiqui]

Interesting ... if Florida does overtake Michigan, Michigan gets an automatic bid for the BCS and the Sugar Bowl gets the second and third selections after the Rose Bowl replaces Ohio State.

Does Michigan go to the Rose Bowl? Word is that the Rose Bowl has already told Michigan they don't want them again this year because they've been there frequently of late and their sales have been down. They apparently really want LSU, and LSU wants the Rose Bowl. So lets' say that ends up being USC/LSU.

Sugar Bowl gets the next two selections, one of which can be an at-large team. This is where it could get interesting. They apparently want no part of Louisville (seem locked into orange Bowl vs. Georgia Tech) or Boise State (Fiesta). So Michigan seems a lock. But who do they play? Notre Dame? Not sure they want to rematch a blow out. I'm leaning toward Auburn -- it's an SEC team. Virginia Tech will likely be eligible, as could be West Virginia. Tennessee or Arkansas will also likely be eligible.

Notre Dame could end up out in the cold.

I'm not sure the Rose rejects Michigan, seeing how it'd set up a Big 10 vs. Pac 10 battle, the traditional matchup of the Rose.

And remember no conference can have more than 2 participants in BCS bowls (I think that is still in effect), so Auburn wouldn't be in if Florida and LSU are.

[timmynausea]

Isn't Louisville guaranteed Orange Bowl as Big East Champ?

Nope. The Big East champ is basically a BCS free agent. The last 2 have gone to the Sugar and Fiesta. The Orange Bowl used to have a deal where they'd get either the Big East or ACC champ, but now they are just affiliated with the ACC.

Louisville will most likely be in the Orange this year, though.

Also I would be shocked if Notre Dame is left out. The Houston Chroncile has reported that the Gator Bowl has already invited WVU, and the Gator would have first crack at ND if they don't make the BCS. In other words, ND is in the BCS.

[JW]

Unofficially sources near LSU are saying this afternoon LSU to Sugar, meaning Florida plays OSU and USC-Michigan in the Rose. LSU's likely opponent is Notre Dame. That has been rumored for some time. Could some or all of this be wrong? Of course.

[Atocep]

If Florida is #2 then its probably LSU vs ND in the Sugar. If Michigan is #2 (looking unlikely right now) then the Rose would probably grab LSU to play USC and ND would play Florida in the Sugar.

[cthomer5000]

Is it just me, or with the "national championship game" shouldn the other bowls return to a strict historical matchup whenever applicable? I mean, it should be mandatory, IMHO. If Michigan isnt in the championship game, the Rose Bowl should absolutely be Michigan-USC.

[kcchief19]

I'm not sure the Rose rejects Michigan, seeing how it'd set up a Big 10 vs. Pac 10 battle, the traditional matchup of the Rose.

And remember no conference can have more than 2 participants in BCS bowls (I think that is still in effect), so Auburn wouldn't be in if Florida and LSU are.
I would normally think that too, but I don't see it in the official BCS rules anymore:
http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/eligibility

Another interesting note from the rules ... When two bowls lose host teams, then the bowl losing the number one team may not select a replacement team from the same Conference as the number two team, unless the bowl losing the number two team consents.
So the Rose Bowl couldn't take LSU without the Sugar Bowl's permission.

I agree ... Michigan to the Rose Bowl and LSU to the Sugar, most likely against Notre Dame, makes the most sense. I know the reports were that the Rose Bowl was unhappy with Michigan's ticket sales in 2004-05. That's what led to the the Rose Bowl courting LSU.

But it looks like that can't happen without the Sugar Bowl agreeing to release LSU. So LSU to the Sugar looks like a lock, which pretty much limits the Rose Bowl to Michigan or Notre Dame, since it doesn't make any sense to bypass both of those teams for an also-ran at-large team.

[Atocep]

Is it just me, or with the "national championship game" shouldn the other bowls return to a strict historical matchup whenever applicable? I mean, it should be mandatory, IMHO. If Michigan isnt in the championship game, the Rose Bowl should absolutely be Michigan-USC.

The bowls that lose teams to the national championship game want some way of ensuring they still get good teams.

[MJ4H]

LA Times apparently has a BCS source:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/college/football/la-sp-bcs4dec04,0,6645854.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[cmp]

This system is a joke.

[kcchief19]

Is it just me, or with the "national championship game" shouldn the other bowls return to a strict historical matchup whenever applicable? I mean, it should be mandatory, IMHO. If Michigan isnt in the championship game, the Rose Bowl should absolutely be Michigan-USC.
All things being equal, sure, I think that's what most people would like to see. But remember -- it's Ohio State the Rose Bowl is losing, not Michigan. Why should the Rose Bowl consent to being stuck with a second-place team if they can get a better team or game?

Look at the Big 12 this year. Let's say Oklahoma didn't get screwed against Oregon. They'd be 12-1 and a very attractive team, maybe in the mix for the national title game. Under tradition, they'd be stuck with Nebraska vs. Boise State. Under the current BCS, they'd get to pick after the Rose Bowl to replace Oklahoma and we'd get Boise State versus Notre Dame.

Who wouldn't want to see that? The Irish get beat by Boise State? :)

[Solecismic]

As expected. Politics over analysis.

I'm biased, of course, but the BCS is a sham. Michigan's screwing in 1997 helped set up the BCS, so there's some irony today. I am very disappointed that the two best teams in the country won't get to settle this on a neutral field.

[MJ4H]

Funny, I would think the same thing if it had been Michigan.

[kcchief19]

Looks like Florida gets the number two ranking in the Coaches' Poll...

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/usatpoll.htm

Funny that Tresell abstained.
I would LOVE it if the final margin between Florida and Michigan is so close that if Tressel had voted and put Michigan No. 2 and Florida No. 3 that Michigan would have finished No. 2. First, the Big 10 would kill him. Second, a margin that thin might the final nail in the coffin and get us a playoff instead of this nonsense.

[cmp]

Ohio State will beat Florida by at least 3 touchdowns.

[Noop]

I hate the Gators. But the way this season has gone for them I would not be surprised if they went and beat Ohio State.

[Craptacular]

OK, the LA Times notwithstanding, here is what I've got:

Based on my earlier guesses for the computers, I was guessing that Florida would have a 0.0100 advantage in that component. However, that assumed that Florida passed OSU for #1 in the Colley and Massey rankings, and I'm not as sure about the Massey. If Florida only makes it to #1 in one, and the rest are as I'm guessing, the computers would be a wash for Florida and Michigan.

If my calculations are correct, Michigan would either need a 48 or 77 vote advantage over Florida in the Harris poll. Last week, Michigan led by 86 over Florida, and trailed USC by 97 votes. There are 114 voters, and USC was 25 votes short of a unanimous #2. Michigan was 8 votes short of an average #3 vote, and Florida was 20 above an average #4. So, there are definitely voters that already had Michigan below #3, and some that had someone other than USC at #2. So, we don't know if it would be enough for Florida if every voter simply moved USC below both of them. There were likely a number of ballots that had USC between Michigan and Florida, but many of those could have already have had Florida as the higher team. Obviously, if the trend of the AP and coaches' poll continued, plenty of voters would move Florida up quite a bit, and it might not end up very close.

[kcchief19]

As expected. Politics over analysis.

I have seen countless articles about who will end up No. 2 and breaking down the BCS, just as there has been here. But I haven't seen a single article debating who should be No. 2 based on who is actually the better team. That's depressing and unfortunate.

I'm biased because I favor anything that exposes the BCS for what it is, a flawed system with no rationale expectation for producing anything other than a flawed outcome.

I realize there would be plenty of rancor over a playoff decided who is No. 8 vs. No. 9 or No. 16 vs. No. 17 decided how many you let in, just as there is controversey over the NCAA basketball field. But the difference between the No. 9 or No. 17 team in the country missing out on a national title vs. the No. 3 team is light years. j

Heck, invite the top four teams. Who wouldn't be going nuts with LSU playing Ohio State and Florida playing Michigan on New Year's weekend with the winners meeting a week later? At least then we're arguing over Who is No. 4 instead of who is No. 2. :)

[Swaggs]

I hate the Gators. But the way this season has gone for them I would not be surprised if they went and beat Ohio State.

That's what I was just thinking.

[JeffNights]

Does Michigan go to the Rose Bowl? Word is that the Rose Bowl has already told Michigan they don't want them again this year because they've been there frequently of late and their sales have been down. They apparently really want LSU, and LSU wants the Rose Bowl. So lets' say that ends up being USC/LSU.


Notre Dame could end up out in the cold.

I dont know where people get crap like this from...do a little research and in yesterdays paper "The Detroit News", they interviewed the Rose bowl selection chairman about this very "rumour". He said its an absolute falsehood as Michigan as already sold out its allotment of tickets of 36,000.

[kcchief19]

If my calculations are correct, Michigan would either need a 48 or 77 vote advantage over Florida in the Harris poll. Last week, Michigan led by 86 over Florida, and trailed USC by 97 votes. There are 114 voters, and USC was 25 votes short of a unanimous #2. Michigan was 8 votes short of an average #3 vote, and Florida was 20 above an average #4. So, there are definitely voters that already had Michigan below #3, and some that had someone other than USC at #2. So, we don't know if it would be enough for Florida if every voter simply moved USC below both of them. There were likely a number of ballots that had USC between Michigan and Florida, but many of those could have already have had Florida as the higher team. Obviously, if the trend of the AP and coaches' poll continued, plenty of voters would move Florida up quite a bit, and it might not end up very close.
I started kicking my computer when I read "Florida" and "ballots." :)

[MJ4H]

Just got word from a source that Arkansas is in the Capital One Bowl vs Wisconsin. May be unreliable. Will confirm shortly.

edit: confirmed (http://www.hogwired.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=6100&ATCLID=702169)

[Swaggs]

So, what would have happened if there was not a BCS system this year, and we had the old traditional bowl setup.

Ohio State would play USC in the Rose Bowl. Florida would almost certainly go to the Sugar Bowl and maybe play Michigan? But if Michigan would have ended up in another bowl, what would have happened if Ohio State lost to USC and both Michigan and Florida won (or lost)?

I know many people hate the BCS, but I like that it tries to match up the two best teams.

[Swaggs]

Just got word from a source that Arkansas is in the Capital One Bowl vs Wisconsin. May be unreliable. Will confirm shortly.

That game should be better than the Orange and Fiesta Bowls.

[Swaggs]

If Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin all win their bowl games, could they finish 1-2-3 in the final polls?

[vtbub]

If Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin all win their bowl games, could they finish 1-2-3 in the final polls?

Only if Boise State and/or Louisville lose their games and if ND beats LSU.

[molson]

As expected. Politics over analysis.



What analysis, exactly, would put Michigan ahead of Florida?

Florida has beaten more top 25 teams than Michigan, and is the champion of a conference that has been far superior, top to bottom, to the Big 10.

The only argument for Michigan is the asinine "best lost" theory. A lot of teams have lost to Ohio St - that's not an accomplishment.

Michigan's support comes from Michigan fans, and hardly anywhere else.

[JeffNights]

What analysis, exactly, would put Michigan ahead of Florida?

Florida has beaten more top 25 teams than Michigan, and is the champion of a conference that has been far superior, top to bottom, to the Big 10.

The only argument for Michigan is the asinine "best lost" theory. A lot of teams have lost to Ohio St - that's not an accomplishment.

Michigan's support comes from Michigan fans, and hardly anywhere else.

Based on what facts do you present to merit such a statement?

You are a ignorant tool.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

As expected. Politics over analysis.

I'm biased, of course, but the BCS is a sham. Michigan's screwing in 1997 helped set up the BCS, so there's some irony today. I am very disappointed that the two best teams in the country won't get to settle this on a neutral field.

Haha. It was Nebraska that absorbed the screwing in 1997. If the two had played, no doubt Nebraska would have beat them. Sorry, it's my job to make sure such statements never slide by without a response.

[kcchief19]

I dont know where people get crap like this from...do a little research and in yesterdays paper "The Detroit News", they interviewed the Rose bowl selection chairman about this very "rumour". He said its an absolute falsehood as Michigan as already sold out its allotment of tickets of 36,000.
If by "people" you mean me, I'll see your "Detroit News" and raise you Sports Illustrated and ESPN, among others. They all reported that LSU had sold out their Rose Bowl pre-sell allotment and reported "sources" with the Rose Bowl saying that LSU would be invited to play either USC or Michigan depending on the outcome of the USC/UCLA game.

If by "people" you mean sports media relying on anonymous sources, I'll agree with you. But the reason Michigan is denying the rumor is that it's been rampant that the Rose Bowl wanted LSU period, especially if they didn't get USC. Getting USC obviously changes that.

[JeffNights]

If by "people" you mean me, I'll see your "Detroit News" and raise you Sports Illustrated and ESPN, among others. They all reported that LSU had sold out their Rose Bowl pre-sell allotment and reported "sources" with the Rose Bowl saying that LSU would be invited to play either USC or Michigan depending on the outcome of the USC/UCLA game.

If by "people" you mean sports media relying on anonymous sources, I'll agree with you. But the reason Michigan is denying the rumor is that it's been rampant that the Rose Bowl wanted LSU period, especially if they didn't get USC. Getting USC obviously changes that.

Michigan didnt deny the rumour, the Rose Bowl Selection commitee chairman did.

P.S. Your higher opinion of Sports Illustrated and ESPN are yours and not shared by all. You trust the media outlets you want to

[kcchief19]

Haha. It was Nebraska that absorbed the screwing in 1997. If the two had played, no doubt Nebraska would have beat them. Sorry, it's my job to make sure such statements never slide by without a response.
Michigan was ranked No. 1 in both polls heading into the bowls before the coaches decided to change their minds and split the national title. The team that absorbed the most screwing in 1997 was Missouri, who had Nebraska beaten until The Kick. Nebraska should have lost that game and their national title hopes. Sorry, it's my job to make sure such statements never slide by without a response.

[kcchief19]

Michigan didnt deny the rumour, the Rose Bowl Selection commitee chairman did.

P.S. Your higher opinion of Sports Illustrated and ESPN are yours and not shared by all. You trust the media outlets you want to
I'm sure that the world would be a better place if everyone fact checked their information against the Detroit News than against every other media outlet in the country that reproted the opposite story. If Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl, I'm sure the Putlitzer organization will recognize the journalistic achievement.

[cmp]

The thing that makes this all so messed up is voters are just voting against a rematch, not for the best two teams left.

[Airhog]

As much as I hate to say it, I would love to see OU get beat handily by Boise St. Only because I think they are getting the shaft.

[JW]

Just got word from a source that Arkansas is in the Capital One Bowl vs Wisconsin. May be unreliable. Will confirm shortly.

edit: confirmed (http://www.hogwired.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=6100&ATCLID=702169)

Shreveport Times says you are right.

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061203/BREAKINGNEWS/61203006

Re LSU and Rose Bowl tickets, the demand was incredible, and I've seen numbers of 40,000 plus sold. But what we're hearing now is LSU to the Sugar. Who knows though?

[st.cronin]

Is there a sports site that projects all the bowl matchups?

[st.cronin]

Arkansas vs. Wisconsin, wow.

That's an intriguing matchup.

[molson]

Is there a sports site that projects all the bowl matchups?

Sportline appears to be the closest to real-time - they have most of the matchups filled in now-

http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

[Craptacular]

Just got word from a source that Arkansas is in the Capital One Bowl vs Wisconsin. May be unreliable. Will confirm shortly.

edit: confirmed (http://www.hogwired.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=6100&ATCLID=702169)

That game should be better than the Orange and Fiesta Bowls.

This is the matchup I was hoping for, as it should be a good game. I definitely did not want to see an Auburn rematch.

[kcchief19]

Odd that the only non-BCS bowls not confirmed are Texas Tech/Oklahoma State in the Insight/Independence bowl slots. Makes me wonder if Texas Tech is considering passing on the NFL Network's Insight Bowl so they can go to a lesser bowl that will be on TV (ESPN)?

[dime]

What analysis, exactly, would put Michigan ahead of Florida?

Florida has beaten more top 25 teams than Michigan, and is the champion of a conference that has been far superior, top to bottom, to the Big 10.

The only argument for Michigan is the asinine "best lost" theory. A lot of teams have lost to Ohio St - that's not an accomplishment.

Michigan's support comes from Michigan fans, and hardly anywhere else.


florida has never been considered one of the top 2 teams in the country all year, by ANY "analysis". what have they done to suddenly be anointed #2? because they won the SEC in one of the conference's weakest years in recent memory? this week (against another vastly overrated SEC team, natch) was the first time the mighty gators have scored over 30 points against a D-1 opponent since september 9th, when they took it to UCF.

most analysis has LSU has a superior team, for crying out loud. they have no business in a championship game; their accolades all rest on narrow wins over their overrated conference brethren.

this team has actually looked worse as the season has worn on; does this look like the #2 team in the country to anyone not wearing an SEC hat?

@ auburn 17-27
@ georgia 21-14
@ vandy 25-19
vs s.carolina 17-16
vs w.carolina (D-II) 62-0
@ florida st 21-14
vs arkansas 38-28


and no, I'm definitely not a michigan fan. but I do hate the buckeyes and the thought of them getting a gift NC (again!) because of a ridiculous decision to vault a florida team with poor QB play, an embarassing reliance on trick plays, no running game and a porous defense into the #2 slot makes me ill.

[vex]

Arkansas vs. Wisconsin, wow.

That's an intriguing matchup.

Not really. Arkansas will throttle them.

[cmp]

Not really. Arkansas will throttle them.

Arkansas is extremely overrated in my opinion.

[ice4277]

Arkansas is extremely overrated in my opinion.

Possibly, but we don't really know much about Wisconsin either. They were overmatched against Michigan and haven't really played anybody else. I think they're a good team, but its tough to say how good.

[cthomer5000]

I can't understand how a Michigan fan could be too upset, given that they had their chance to take down Ohio State. I think it's a more reasonable decision to give Florida a crack than to give Michigan another one.

[st.cronin]

Not really. Arkansas will throttle them.

Oh, ok. Guess I'll do something else that day, then.

[st.cronin]

Sportline appears to be the closest to real-time - they have most of the matchups filled in now-

http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

Just briefly glanced at that page, but I noticed an obvious mistake - it has Miami and Boise State switched.

[Scholes]

I can't understand how a Michigan fan could be too upset, given that they had their chance to take down Ohio State. I think it's a more reasonable decision to give Florida a crack than to give Michigan another one.

Amen. Michigan had their shot, and they failed.

[Blade6119]

Just briefly glanced at that page, but I noticed an obvious mistake - it has Miami and Boise State switched.

No it doesnt

[st.cronin]

No it doesnt

No, it does.

It says Miami is playing in the MPC Bowl, and has Boise State playing in the Fiesta Bowl. Really, how could they get wrong?

[Solecismic]

What analysis, exactly, would put Michigan ahead of Florida?

Florida has beaten more top 25 teams than Michigan, and is the champion of a conference that has been far superior, top to bottom, to the Big 10.

The only argument for Michigan is the asinine "best lost" theory. A lot of teams have lost to Ohio St - that's not an accomplishment.

Michigan's support comes from Michigan fans, and hardly anywhere else.

Points for Michigan:

All 11 of their wins were convincing (even Ball State, which they led, 31-12 before Carr put in the second string). Florida needed to block two kicks against South Carolina, five other wins by 10 or less.

Their only loss was their closest game, on road to consensus #1 team.

They had a slightly better average opponent and strength of schedule (13th according to Sagarin, compared to 19th for Florida).

They had a much tougher out-of-conference schedule.

They were ranked #2 by the same system going in, it's very rare for a team to drop at this stage without losing.

They didn't have advantage of a bye week during the season.

Florida was not unusually impressive against a relatively poor conference championship opponent.


Points for Florida:

While their overall schedule was slightly weaker (playing the #212 team in the country is a little weird), the top of their schedule was tougher, they played more bowl teams.

Ohio State already beat Michigan.

Michigan isn't even a conference champion.


I think if you're looking for the better team, you pick the rematch on neutral turf. If you're playing politics, you give Florida its turn.

Since the BCS rules only mention avoiding rematches in the minor BCS games, I'd give the vote to Michigan.

[vex]

No, it does.

It says Miami is playing in the MPC Bowl, and has Boise State playing in the Fiesta Bowl. Really, how could they get wrong?

:p

[Crapshoot]

The stated goal of the BCS is to get the best 2 teams there - if that's the case, it has to be Michigan. Selecting Florida is only based on "they had their shot" logic does not fit in with the stated goal.

[dime]

picking florida because michigan "already had its chance" is like choosing han solo to battle darth vader because luke "already had his chance" and got his hand cut off. just let michigan get a cybernetic hand for their defense, and run it again. no one else has a chance.

[Tigercat]

The stated goal of the BCS is to get the best 2 teams there - if that's the case, it has to be Michigan. Selecting Florida is only based on "they had their shot" logic does not fit in with the stated goal.

The problem is that isn't THE stated goal, the goal shifts between that and the most deserving team(best season). The BCS would work a whole lot better if we could reach a general agreement about what it was truly working towards when records are equal, best team or best season. But alas, that debate to finally have that debate once and for all never happens.

[vex]

Oh, ok. Guess I'll do something else that day, then.

Glad to help.

[Joe]

The stated goal of the BCS is to get the best 2 teams there - if that's the case, it has to be Michigan. Selecting Florida is only based on "they had their shot" logic does not fit in with the stated goal.

The goal is to match the two top rated teams in the BCS championship, not the best 2.

[molson]

The stated goal of the BCS is to get the best 2 teams there - if that's the case, it has to be Michigan. Selecting Florida is only based on "they had their shot" logic does not fit in with the stated goal.

If this was true, we wouldn't automatically eliminate 2 and 3 loss teams from consideration. A team that had a couple of early season losses and then improved isn't necessarily "worse" than a team that didn't.

[JonInMiddleGA]

The goal is to match the two top rated teams in the BCS championship, not the best 2.

You raise what should be a salient point.

It gets overlooked a lot I think, but it's a pretty doggoned important distinction.

[dime]

wait, now people are saying the rankings aren't supposed to reflect how good a team is? awesome. some of you must work for the BCS.

why don't we just have a lottery drawing? the power conferences could get more ping-pong balls in the hopper, and the drawing could be held on pay-per-view...

[mauchow]

Isn't this what Auburn fans last year said of the Badgers.. they'll get throttled. I'd suggest you watch the game and find out for yourself how good either team is.

[molson]

wait, now people are saying the rankings aren't supposed to reflect how good a team is? awesome. some of you must work for the BCS.



I think these terms of "best team" and "best season" mean different things to different people, and thus the distinction may be meaningless. But the way I see it, "best team" (i.e. talent), can be determined before the season even starts. If a team is absolutely the most talented team in the country, but they blow 3 early games because of bad coaching or a stupid interception, we don't want them in the championship game even if they're clearly the "best team". Instead, we want the team, that, regardless of talent, had the most successful season in terms of Wins and Losses, and quality of competition - that's what the BCS measures. The BCS doesn't independently care about talent level - it's clearly not a "best team" analysis - it only cares about results.

[st.cronin]

Isn't this what Auburn fans last year said of the Badgers.. they'll get throttled. I'd suggest you watch the game and find out for yourself how good either team is.

Don't you know, the SEC is far and away the best conference in the country. Didn't you see Georgia demolish WVU last year? Or the way Arkansas handled USC earlier this year?

[cmp]

Wow. Florida received one 1st place vote in the Harris Poll. This thing is messed up.

[KWhit]

Wow. Florida received one 1st place vote in the Harris Poll. This thing is messed up.

Ouch. Somebody's stuffing the ballot box.

[Atocep]

wait, now people are saying the rankings aren't supposed to reflect how good a team is?


The computer rankings do this. The human polls are the ones based on whichever team the media is pushing that week.

[Joe]

Wow. Florida received one 1st place vote in the Harris Poll. This thing is messed up.

That's it?!?!?!

Wow.

[Galaxy]

I hate Fox trying to drag this thing out as long as possible.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

I agree. Years back, ABC/ESPN's show lasted about 15 minutes as they just announced them one after the other.

[st.cronin]

Wow. Florida received one 1st place vote in the Harris Poll. This thing is messed up.

I demand a recount.

[molson]

Wow. Florida received one 1st place vote in the Harris Poll. This thing is messed up.

Here's your culprit.

http://www.pollg.com/g/w27236/w27236wk12.htm?who=jwalden

I think he was a coach at Washington - no connection to Florida that I can see.

Pretty interesting list of voters. There's a spreadsheet on that site that shows each voter's votes. Boise St's ranking varies between #2 and #15.

[Galaxy]

I can't understand how a Michigan fan could be too upset, given that they had their chance to take down Ohio State. I think it's a more reasonable decision to give Florida a crack than to give Michigan another one.

I never understood this argument. This doesn't mean anything to me. I want the teams that proven themselves to be the best two this year. If it was Florida against Florida State, I wouldn't care. The problem steams as to who had the second best season.

[Ksyrup]

In this day and age, why dragging stuff out works amazes me. I can either sit there and quickly flip to ESPNews or look at my Blackberry to find out what they want me to pay their advertisers to sit through and miss the beginning of the Broncos game. Why would I do that? WHY??

[Galaxy]

Florida is in.

[molson]

Here's the final Harris poll, with voting breakdown, if anyone is interested.

Bert Emanuel had Rice in his top 25 - isn't he an alum?

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/news/newsletters/bcsnews/HICFP_Individual_Rankings_Dec_3_2006.pdf

[Ksyrup]

Who is Jim Walden?

[Galaxy]

So it looks like the coaches poll determined it.

[HerRealName]

Both the human polls were the difference, the computers were even.

ND - LSU is going to be ugly.

[molson]

Who is Jim Walden?

Wikipedia says he coached Washington and Iowa St. Also, it has this entry, just added:

"Somehow, this idiot thought it was a good idea to vote a 1 loss Florida team over an undefeated Ohio State team in an attempt to get Flordia into the national championship game. The old Southern coot got his wish, as he screwed over Michigan....Walden spent his golden years blaming the Wolverines for ruining Ryan Leaf, and was able to exact his revenge via pen, shortly before becoming a full time milkshake..."

Of course, 1 vote in Harris Poll didn't make a difference, but it's pretty funny to see is Wikipedia entry vandalized so quickly.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Both the human polls were the difference, the computers were even.

ND - LSU is going to be ugly.

Yes. Almost as ugly as the National Championship game.

[st.cronin]

I'm actually intrigued by all these games, except possibly Wake Forest vs. Louisville. I think this is a good outcome.

[WheelsVT]

Wikipedia says he coached Washington and Iowa St. Also, it has this entry, just added:

"Somehow, this idiot thought it was a good idea to vote a 1 loss Florida team over an undefeated Ohio State team in an attempt to get Flordia into the national championship game. The old Southern coot got his wish, as he screwed over Michigan....Walden spent his golden years blaming the Wolverines for ruining Ryan Leaf, and was able to exact his revenge via pen, shortly before becoming a full time milkshake..."

Of course, 1 vote in Harris Poll didn't make a difference, but it's pretty funny to see is Wikipedia entry vandalized so quickly.

also amazing how quickly it was corrected.

[Ksyrup]

Wikipedia says he coached Washington and Iowa St. Also, it has this entry, just added:

"Somehow, this idiot thought it was a good idea to vote a 1 loss Florida team over an undefeated Ohio State team in an attempt to get Flordia into the national championship game. The old Southern coot got his wish, as he screwed over Michigan....Walden spent his golden years blaming the Wolverines for ruining Ryan Leaf, and was able to exact his revenge via pen, shortly before becoming a full time milkshake..."

Of course, 1 vote in Harris Poll didn't make a difference, but it's pretty funny to see is Wikipedia entry vandalized so quickly.

Thanks! Pretty interesting. There is no way to justify that vote. I don't think you should penalize a team for not playing, frankly, but to vote a team over 2 others, one undefeated, tells me that person deserves to lose the right to vote. Assinine.

[Galaxy]

So, does this put a lot pressure on Florida, if Michigan wins the Rose Bowl?

[miami_fan]

So, does this put a lot pressure on Florida, if Michigan wins the Rose Bowl?

No I think the pressure of winning the national championship will be enough.

[molson]

So, does this put a lot pressure on Florida, if Michigan wins the Rose Bowl?

Well, Florida will be the "BCS Champion" if they beat Ohio St, but I'm sure Michigan will get it's share of #1 votes in the AP Poll if both they and Florida win.

[Galaxy]

No I think the pressure of winning the national championship will be enough.

I should of phrase my question better. Does it put pressure on the BCS mess through Florida's performance against Ohio State?

[mtolson]

Points for Michigan:

They were ranked #2 by the same system going in, it's very rare for a team to drop at this stage without losing.



I kind of agree with Jim hear. Honestly, I don't know which team I want to see play Ohio State but for Michigan to get jumped over by 2 teams at the end of the season without even playing seems very odd. Hell, there was no point of them even being #2. Number #4 beating #9 caused them to jump ahead of the #2 ranked team seems jacked up. I love the SEC but having the championship game seems to really help them. Based on the arguments of Florida's stenght of schedule I would have expected them to be ranked ahead of Michigan in the first place. It shouldn't taken the last game of the season for voters to NOW determine that Florida is #2 with Michigan sitting on the bench.

[cmp]

OSU 35 Florida 14

[mtolson]

What do people think we would be looking at if Michigan had beat Ohio State. Just curious.

[kcchief19]

Well, Florida will be the "BCS Champion" if they beat Ohio St, but I'm sure Michigan will get it's share of #1 votes in the AP Poll if both they and Florida win.
I have absolutely ZERO doubt that if Florida and Michigan both win, we will have a split national title, with Florida taking the coaches poll and Michigan topping the AP poll. I don't give a shit what the Harris poll does, and neither does anybody else.

[Galaxy]

I kind of agree with Jim hear. Honestly, I don't know which team I want to see play Ohio State but for Michigan to get jumped over by 2 teams at the end of the season without even playing seems very odd. Hell, there was no point of them even being #2. Number #4 beating #9 caused them to jump ahead of the #2 ranked team seems jacked up. I love the SEC but having the championship game seems to really help them. Based on the arguments of Florida's stenght of schedule I would have expected them to be ranked ahead of Michigan in the first place. It shouldn't taken the last game of the season for voters to NOW determine that Florida is #2 with Michigan sitting on the bench.

Looking at Florida's schedule (including a 1-AA team) and play against South Carolina, Vandy, Tennessee in tha wild game, Georgia, Florida State, is it really better?

09/02 So Miss W 34-7
09/09 C Florida W 42-0
09/16 at #13 Tennessee W 21-20
09/23 Kentucky W 26-7
09/30 Alabama W 28-13
10/07 #9 LSU W 23-10
10/14 at #11 Auburn L 27-17
10/28 at Georgia W 21-14
11/04 at Vanderbilt W 25-19
11/11 S Carolina W 17-16
11/18 W Carolina W 62-0
11/25 at Florida St W 21-14
12/02 #8 Arkansas W 38-28

I just don't see the argument that Florida had a better season. Michigan's slate:

09/02 Vanderbilt W 27-7
09/09 C Michigan W 41-17
09/16 at #2 N Dame W 47-21
09/23 Wisconsin W 27-13
09/30 at Minnesota W 28-14
10/07 Mich St W 31-13
10/14 at Penn State W 17-10
10/21 Iowa W 20-6
10/28 N'western W 17-3
11/04 Ball St W 34-26
11/11 at Indiana W 34-3
11/18 at #1 Ohio St L 42-39

[miami_fan]

I should of phrase my question better. Does it put pressure on the BCS mess through Florida's performance against Ohio State?

In the eyes of the public, probably. In the eyes of the BCS supporters, no. It is not the first time something like this has happened. In fact, I think it is more of a norm than the exception. If the Gators win, then the BCS picked the right team to win the championship. If the Buckeyes win, then the BCS will have picked the right team to win the championship.

[Atocep]

I have absolutely ZERO doubt that if Florida and Michigan both win, we will have a split national title, with Florida taking the coaches poll and Michigan topping the AP poll. I don't give a shit what the Harris poll does, and neither does anybody else.

Florida has a small lead over Michigan in the AP. I don't see how them beating the team that beat Michigan would get voters to push Michigan ahead.

[miami_fan]

Are the individual results of each voter in the coaches poll released?

[st.cronin]

What do people think we would be looking at if Michigan had beat Ohio State. Just curious.

Probably the same games, but with Buckeye in the Rose Bowl and Michigan vs. Florida for the title.

[VPI97]

Looking at Florida's schedule (including a 1-AA team) and play against South Carolina, Vandy, Tennessee in tha wild game, Georgia, Florida State, is it really better?
IMHO, it looks significantly tougher than Michigan's schedule. But that's probably because I'm more familiar with southeastern teams than midwestern teams.

[cartman]

If strength of schedule is such an important factor now, why wasn't it when Auburn didn't make the championship game when they had the best SOS of the three undefeated teams?

[timmynausea]

Florida has a small lead over Michigan in the AP. I don't see how them beating the team that beat Michigan would get voters to push Michigan ahead.

Exactly. In the 1993-94 season a 1 loss Florida State got picked to play undefeated Nebraska over a 1 loss Notre Dame that had beaten FSU earlier in the year. When FSU beat Nebraska, nobody outside of South Bend called for a split championship. Michigan's argument pales in comparison to that.

[Ksyrup]

If strength of schedule is such an important factor now, why wasn't it when Auburn didn't make the championship game when they had the best SOS of the three undefeated teams?

Because it supports the argument this time around.

[Crim]

Florida has a small lead over Michigan in the AP. I don't see how them beating the team that beat Michigan would get voters to push Michigan ahead.

Here's how it works:
1) Michigan beats USC (probable). Any amount is fine, 1 point or a dozen, it doesn't matter.
2) Florida beats tOSU (unlikely, but I'm hopeful). Again, margin of victory won't matter for this exercize.
3) The coaches poll is locked into crowning the Gators as the BCS Champ. Woohoo, since I'm a Gator fan.
4) The AP voters do the right thing, and vote (almost unanimously, I'll bet) Michigan #1, to reward them for having been screwed out of the BCS Championship game.
5) The nation bemoans another split championship, and a cacophany of "playoffs" arises anew.

Now let it be said, I'm a huge Gator fan, but this is exactly the scenario I'm hoping for: My team wins the NC, and the BCS is dealt another blow. Won't be enough to bring it down as an institution, but maybe if we keep chipping away...

I for one would certainly not begrudge the Wolvies for sharing a title, it is a specious argument at best that my team deserved the title chance more.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

I believe they have changed the formula since then, no?

[Crim]

Because it supports the argument this time around.

Look, we're pretty much all arguing the same thing: this system sucks.

[tucker rocky]

Poinsettia December 19 Northern Illinois (7-5) vs.
at San Diego (8:00 p.m. - ESPN2) TCU (10-2)

Las Vegas December 21 BYU (10-2) vs.
at Las Vegas (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) Oregon (7-5)

New Orleans December 22 Rice (7-5) vs.
at New Orleans, Louisiana (8:00 p.m. - ESPN2) Troy (7-5)

New Mexico ~ December 23 New Mexico (6-6) vs.
at Albuquerque, New Mexico (4:30 p.m. - ESPN) San Jose St (8-4)

Papajohns.com ~ December 23 South Florida (8-4) vs.
at Birmingham, Alabama (1:00 p.m. - ESPN2) East Carolina (7-5)

Armed Forces % December 23 Utah (7-5) vs.
at Fort Worth, Texas (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) Tulsa (8-4)

Hawaii December 24 Hawaii (10-3) vs.
at Honolulu (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) Arizona St (7-5)

Motor City December 26 Middle Tennessee (7-5) vs.
at Detroit (7:30 p.m. - ESPN) Central Michigan (9-4)

Emerald December 27 Florida St (6-6) vs.
at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) UCLA (7-5)

Independence December 28 Oklahoma St (6-6) vs.
at Shreveport, Louisiana (4:30 p.m. - ESPN) Alabama (6-6)

Holiday December 28 Texas A&M (9-3) vs.
at San Diego (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) California (9-3)

Texas ^ December 28 Kansas St (7-5) vs.
at Houston (8:00 p.m. - NFL) Rutgers (10-2)

Music City December 29 Clemson (8-4) vs.
at Nashville, Tennessee (1:00 p.m. - ESPN) Kentucky (7-5)

Sun December 29 Oregon St (9-4) vs.
at El Paso, Texas (2:00 p.m. - CBS) Missouri (8-4)

Liberty December 29 South Carolina (7-5) vs.
at Memphis (4:30 p.m. - ESPN) Houston (10-3)

Insight December 29 Texas Tech (7-5) vs.
at Phoenix (7:30 p.m. - NFL) Minnesota (6-6)

Champs Sports December 29 Purdue (8-5) vs.
at Orlando, Florida (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) Maryland (8-4)

Meineke Car Care December 30 Navy (9-3) vs.
at Charlotte, No Carolina (1:00 p.m. - ESPN) Boston College (9-3)

Alamo December 30 Texas (9-3) vs.
at San Antonio (4:30 p.m. - ESPN) Iowa (6-6)

Chick-fil-A # December 30 Georgia (8-4) vs.
at Atlanta (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) Virginia Tech (10-2)

MPC Computers December 31 Miami Fl (6-6) vs.
at Boise, Idaho (7:30 p.m. - ESPN) Nevada (8-4)

Outback January 1 Penn St (8-4) vs.
at Tampa, Florida (11:00 a.m. - ESPN) Tennessee (9-3)

Cotton January 1 Auburn (10-2) vs.
at Dallas (11:30 a.m. - FOX) Nebraska (9-4)

Gator January 1 Georgia Tech (9-4) vs.
at Jacksonville, Florida (1:00 p.m. - CBS) West Virginia (10-2)

Capital One January 1 Arkansas (10-3) vs.
at Orlando, Florida (1:00 p.m. - ABC) Wisconsin (11-1)

Rose January 1 Michigan (11-1) vs.
at Pasadena, California (5:00 p.m. - ABC) USC (10-2)

Fiesta January 1 Boise St (12-0) vs.
at Phoenix, Arizona (8:30 p.m. - FOX) Oklahoma (11-2)

Orange January 2 Louisville (11-1) vs.
at Miami, Florida (8:00 p.m. - FOX) Wake Forest (11-2)

Sugar January 3 Notre Dame (10-2) vs.
at New Orleans, Louisiana (8:00 p.m. - FOX) LSU (10-2)

** International ~ January 6 Western Michigan (8-4) vs.
at Toronto, Ontario (12:00 p.m. - ESPN2) Cincinnati (7-5) **

GMAC January 7 Ohio (9-4) vs.
at Mobile, Alabama (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) Southern Mississippi (8-5)

BCS National Championship January 8 Florida (12-1) vs.
at Glendale, Arizona (8:00 p.m. - FOX) Ohio St (12-0)

** A first, interesting.

[Crim]

OSU 35 Florida 14


Maybe, maybe not. Remember when the Luckeyes were prohibitive underdogs going into the Miami game? That team won all year on guts, luck, and breakdowns by their opponents. Exactly what the Gators have been doing this year... I just hope we don't have to rely on a bullshit phantom pass interference call at the end of the game like Ohio State did that year.

[HerRealName]

Here's how it works:
....
5) The nation bemoans another split championship, and a cacophany of "playoffs" arises anew.

Now let it be said, I'm a huge Gator fan, but this is exactly the scenario I'm hoping for: My team wins the NC, and the BCS is dealt another blow. Won't be enough to bring it down as an institution, but maybe if we keep chipping away...

I for one would certainly not begrudge the Wolvies for sharing a title, it is a specious argument at best that my team deserved the title chance more.

I still don't see how the media could justify voting a one loss Michigan number one over a one loss OSU given the head to head results.

[JonInMiddleGA]

No I think the pressure of winning the national championship will be enough.

Hell, it appeared to me that the pressure of just having a chance to get to the national championship game got to them quite a bit last night.

[HerRealName]

I just hope we don't have to rely on a bullshit phantom pass interference call at the end of the game like Ohio State did that year.

Bad officiating is the only reason why OSU didn't win that game in regulation.

[VPI97]

Unbelievably horrible officiating and/or paid off officials is the only reason why Miami didn't win that game.
Fixed.

:D

[MylesKnight]

Notre Dame in a BCS Game???

[MJ4H]

One of the differences between the Big 10 and SEC is the championship game. I believe it's one reason why the SEC champ is deserving of a little more respect than someone out of the Big 10. The SEC teams have to put it on the line one more time than the Big 10 team.

Why was Michigan punished for sitting at home? They didn't lose? I hear that all the time. Sitting at home = NO CHANCE to lose. Florida goes on the field and risks that loss. That is where a significant bump comes from. I say if the Big 10 doesn't like it, they should get a championship game. It is a big boost for the team that wins it (it's also a huge hit to the team that loses it).

Conferences that don't have championship games shouldn't complain about teams passing them while they are on vacation. That's just my opinion.

[VPI97]

Conferences that don't have championship games shouldn't complain about teams passing them while they are on vacation. That's just my opinion.
Mine too.

[Crim]

Thanks for posting those bowl matchups, tucker rocky. A few stand out to me:

Hawaii (10-3) vs.Arizona St (7-5)
This oughta be a fun one to watch. Go Hawaii!

Florida St (6-6) vs.UCLA (7-5)
Never have I rooted for UCLA this hard. Go Bruins!

Oklahoma St (6-6) vs. Alabama (6-6)
aka the "We Don't Deserve This Bowl Bowl." Go alternate programming!

Miami Fl (6-6) vs. Nevada (8-4)
I don't recall ever especially caring about the fortunes of Nevada before, but I hope they leave an indelible mark on Miami for years. Beat 'em like LSU did last year!

Penn St (8-4) vs. Tennessee (9-3)
Now this is a very interesting matchup to me. Think I'm leaning toward the Vols here.

Auburn (10-2) vs. Nebraska (9-4)
Another neat matchup. Go Tigers, beat the Callahans!

[mtolson]

Mine too.

But those teams have no control over the fact that they don't have a championship. They should get punished because the conference doesn't have enough teams for a championship either.

[Crim]

Notre Dame in a BCS Game???

See? Told ya the system's broken.

[VPI97]

But those teams have no control over the fact that they don't have a championship. They should get punished because the conference doesn't have enough teams for a championship either.
Yes they do. The Big 10 has had a ton of opportunities to add another team. If Michigan wants to blame someone for losing a Champ game bid because they didn't play yesterday, they should look no further than themselves, the other 10 teams in the conference and the conference commissioner for letting other conferences get an edge.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Notre Dame in a BCS Game???

I ain't exactly wild about the Irish either, BUT they're a composite #9 in the computer polls, higher than their T10th/11th rankings in the human polls.

By all measures they're a legitimate BCS team.

[MJ4H]

Besides, a factor being out of a team's control is not an argument that the factor should not be considered. After all, a team has no control over how the other teams on their schedule perform the rest of the year, yet that is a huge factor.

[Crim]

Besides, those bastitches can't even count. How does the Big 10 have 11 teams, anyhow?!?

Sorry, I almost broke my foot off in that dead horse...

[Kodos]

It is pathetic that college football doesn't have a playoff system. Really mars the sport.

[cmp]

33 coaches changed their vote and moved Florida ahead of Michigan this week, that is crazy.

[kcchief19]

I still don't see how the media could justify voting a one loss Michigan number one over a one loss OSU given the head to head results.
Just ask youself how the media could justify voting Florida ahead of Michigan after Michigian didn't even play. It's the same politics that boosted Florida over Michigan in the polls this week to the title game ... the same voters who didn't want a rematch and voted Florida over Michigan will vote Michigan over Florida because they think Michigan got hosed by being left out of it. The same thing would happen if it was reversed. When there are three teams involved, you can't have a consensus national champion.

The moment the current system makes sense to you is the the first sign of senility.

[JPhillips]

I can't believe I'm defending Michigan, but here I go.

We aren't talking about Michigan not playing a big game. They played a Big Ten Championship game against Ohio State. What we're talking about is a game against Western Carolina. That's really the big difference in schedules here.

Look at the non-conference games for both teams.

Michigan: Vanderbilt, Central Michigan and Notre Dame.
Two cupcakes and a BCS team.

Florida: Southern Miss, Central Florida and Western Carolina.
Three cupcakes, one of them in November.

Conference schedules are beyond the control of any team, but Florida doesn't have a worthwhile non-conference game and even played a directional school in November. Michigan scheduled more difficult opponents where they had control. And while Florida played an exhibition against Western Carolina the Wolverines were playing the number one team in the country in what was in effect a Big Ten Championship game.

[MJ4H]

They played a Big Ten Championship game against Ohio State.

No, they played a regular season game against Ohio State.

[MJ4H]

Just ask youself how the media could justify voting Florida ahead of Michigan after Michigian didn't even play.



I'm definitely more impressed with a team that goes out on Saturday and puts their record on the line than one that sits at home and watches them.

[VPI97]

Conference schedules are beyond the control of any team, but Florida doesn't have a worthwhile non-conference game and even played a directional school in November.
That's because the SEC is head and shoulders above the Big 10. Michigan had to go out of conference to get a win over a BCS team...UF got one of those from their conference schedule.

[JPhillips]

Yes and no. If there wasn't a two team rule Wisconsin would surely be a BCS team. They're number seven in the final poll.

[Brian Swartz]

Except of course that Wisconsin(whom Michigan beat) would BE a BCS team were it not for the arbitrary and pointless rule against 3 teams from one conference.

I'm definitely more impressed with a team that goes out on Saturday and puts their record on the line than one that sits at home and watches them.

I think it's silly to judge a team based on how many games they played. Ask yourself whether Michigan's performance against OSU or Florida's against Arkansas(or any other game in the last two months, for that matter) was more noteworthy.

[HerRealName]

Wisconsin's record is more of an indicator that the Big Ten is completely awful than it is an indication of Big Ten strength.

Edit.. I meant to add that when the Big Ten is good, it is extremely difficult for teams to survive the conference schedule without some losses, just like the SEC this year. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State making it through the Big Ten schedule only losing to each other shows how pitiful the Big Ten is this year. And I'm a big Big Ten fan.

[Logan]

I ain't exactly wild about the Irish either, BUT they're a composite #9 in the computer polls, higher than their T10th/11th rankings in the human polls.

By all measures they're a legitimate BCS team.

Sorry, can't agree. The season has now ended without them having beaten a team that is currently ranked in the top 25. The GT win to start the season got progressively less impressive over the last month and a half.

Below is a list of teams that are not playing in a BCS game, that I would feel confident would beat ND on a neutral field or in South Bend:

West Virginia, Oklahoma, Auburn, Texas, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Arkansas.

Look, I understand why ND is in a BCS game, and that's fine. But it would be a lot easier to handle if people would stop trying to sell how they "deserve" it on a football-only basis when we all know it's the money that matters.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Just ask youself how the media could justify voting Florida ahead of Michigan after Michigian didn't even play.

Unless I've miscounted, Michigan is 2-1 against teams in the BCS top 25.
With yesterday's win, Florida is now 3-1 against teams in the BCS top 25.

Florida also has now beaten 4 teams that had wins over a BCS top 25 team.
Michigan victims combined for 0 wins over BCS top 25 teams.

Combined those facts with Florida becoming champion of what is still the toughest conference in the country, there's more than ample reason to have re-evaluated and made the correct call for the final poll.

[JonInMiddleGA]

But it would be a lot easier to handle if people would stop trying to sell how they "deserve" it on a football-only basis when we all know it's the money that matters.

I have my own criticisms of the computer polls, but darned if I knew any of them had a "butts in seats" component.

[Cuckoo]

Below is a list of teams that are not playing in a BCS game...

...Oklahoma...


See what happens when you play Boise State. Everyone forgets about you. :D

[Brian Swartz]

The butts-in-seats component is herein and herein contained within the 2 teams only per conference no matter what rule.

I find myself unimpressed with Florida's barely-wins against bad teams such as Georgia, Florida State, and Vanderbilt enough not to be over-awed by the SEC. But that's just me. :).

[Craptacular]

I hate Notre Dame as much as the next guy, but if you look at the BCS standings, who should have gotten in instead of them? Every eligible team ranked higher than them is in a BCS bowl. I have no problems arguing against the rule limiting a conference to two teams, which keeps Auburn and Wisconsin out, but otherwise, there aren't really any teams that have a better claim than Notre Dame.

[Logan]

I have my own criticisms of the computer polls, but darned if I knew any of them had a "butts in seats" component.

And Rutgers was 3rd in the computers after the Louisville win...and even I wasn't delusional enough to think we were the 3rd best team in the country.

[Logan]

I hate Notre Dame as much as the next guy, but if you look at the BCS standings, who should have gotten in instead of them? Every eligible team ranked higher than them is in a BCS bowl. I have no problems arguing against the rule limiting a conference to two teams, which keeps Auburn and Wisconsin out, but otherwise, there aren't really any teams that have a better claim than Notre Dame.

Which ND wins impressed you?

Their final rankings are still as a result of their lofty preseason #2 ranking, which is why many of us want those polls to not be unveiled until later in the season.

[JPhillips]

The BCS needs to be customizable.

[MJ4H]

I think it's silly to judge a team based on how many games they played. Ask yourself whether Michigan's performance against OSU or Florida's against Arkansas(or any other game in the last two months, for that matter) was more noteworthy.

I'm going to approach this two different ways. Each is independent of the other.

1) Exaggerating to make my point, you don't think a team that has won 12 straight games is deserving of a higher ranking than a team that has won 4 straight? If you do think this, then your argument is out the window. It is just a smaller advantage with a smaller difference in number.

2) I am most decidedly NOT judging them based on the NUMBER of games they played, unless you mean 1 game vs. 0 games. I am judging based on the difference between the week before and this week, where one team put their record on the line and the other didn't. This is where ground was *MADE UP*. I am not referring to any cumulative effect here. This is in reference to the change in position from behind Michigan to in front of Michigan one week to the next. One team made up ground by playing and winning, one team stood still and watched with no risk.

[JonInMiddleGA]

And Rutgers was 3rd in the computers after the Louisville win...and even I wasn't delusional enough to think we were the 3rd best team in the country.

Which points out what might be the one of the things that keeps me from discounting the computer polls completely: the fact that they seem to make more sense at the end of the season than they do in midstream. Still not perfect by any means, but better at the end than in the middle.

[JPhillips]

I understand what you are saying, but what about the non-conference games. In effect Florida played Western Carolina while Michigan played Notre Dame. That's really where the big difference lies.

Why does Florida/Arkansas mean more than OSU/Michigan? That's another question that needs to be answered. On OSU/Michigan weekend Florida played Western Carolina. Would Florida still be deserving of moving ahead of Michigan if the schedule was changed so the Arkansas game was on the 18th and Western Carolina was yesterday?

Saying Florida has an extra game is misleading because they also had an extra gimme in November.

[Arles]

I think the conference championship cuts both ways. While a team like Michigan or USC can sit at home and risk nothing, a team like Oklahoma or Florida often has to beat another top 10 or atleast top 25 team. Now, if they need that win to be equal to a tougher schedule by a Pac-10/Big 10 team (a la USC and their 4 BCS wins), that's one thing. However, going into this weekend,

Michigan had wins against #7 and #11 in the BCS, and a loss against #1
Florida had wins against #4 and #17 in the BCS, and a loss against #9

Both have similar SOS with Michigan having the "better loss" but Florida had the "better win".

So, given it was essentially a toss up by numbers, it seems those that want Michigan would like the following:

1. The Michigan-OSU game to be meaningless.
2. The Florida-Arkansas SEC title game to be meaningless.

By voting Michigan at No. 2, you would be essentially making arguably the top 2 regular season games mean nothing. Given how close Michigan and Florida were before the game, I can't see a scenerio where Florida should not get a title chance if they clearly beat the No. 8 team in the country. After all, had Florida lost, they certainly would not have had a shot at the championship.

[MJ4H]

Florida/Arkansas didn't mean more than OSU/Michigan. It meant more than Michigan vs. naptime. Before this weekend they were already pretty close. Florida did something to make up that ground while Michigan just sat there.

[molson]

Would Florida still be deserving of moving ahead of Michigan if the schedule was changed so the Arkansas game was on the 18th and Western Carolina was yesterday?


Interesting point, but Florida would still have had more quality wins than Michigan under your scenario.

[Galaxy]

One solution: Florida vs. Michigan. Winner goes to the title game. As much of a supporter of the bowl system (more of the old bowl/conference system though), I think something needs to be done.

[Galaxy]

Florida/Arkansas didn't mean more than OSU/Michigan. It meant more than Michigan vs. naptime. Before this weekend they were already pretty close. Florida did something to make up that ground while Michigan just sat there.

Just curious, what exactly do you want Michigan to do?

[molson]

One solution: Florida vs. Michigan. Winner goes to the title game. As much of a supporter of the bowl system (more of the old bowl/conference system though), I think something needs to be done.

It'd be definitely be cool if college football were run like the WWE. Then Vince McMahon could suddenly appear on the Titantron and make matchups like this on the fly.

[VPI97]

Just curious, what exactly do you want Michigan to do?
Beat Ohio State the first time around?

[Galaxy]

To add to this discussion, what if USC did win the other day, would it still be the same thing as a Michigan/Florida debate?

[Arles]

To add to this discussion, what if USC did win the other day, would it still be the same thing as a Michigan/Florida debate?

No, because USC had 4 BCS wins and a much tougher SOS than Michigan or Florida. Even with the win against Arkansas, Florida had 3 and Michigan had 2.

[MJ4H]

Just curious, what exactly do you want Michigan to do?

Play in the rose bowl.

[st.cronin]

I don't particularly like the SEC, and I'm a Big 10 fan, but this is probably the right matchup. The only other two teams that really have any claim to play Ohio State are Boise State and Louisville. And really, only Boise State has any right to bitch. Everybody else, just go undefeated next time.

[Galaxy]

Beat Ohio State the first time around?

What if they did win, would you argue that Ohio State or Florida have a equal chance?

My problem with Florida is they just weren't impressive. They just got by a couple of average-to-poor teams. This is where I have a problem with the human polls. Are they voting for Florida over Michigan, or against Michigan getting a re-match against Ohio State?

[Arles]

BTW, to tease everyone, here's what an 8-team playoff would look like by the BCS:

#1 OSU vs. #8 Boise State
#2 UF vs. #7 Wisconsin
#3 Michigan vs. #6 Louisville
#4 LSU vs. #5 USC

:eek:

[JPhillips]

On another note, did anyone else watch the selection show and think, "This is the national championship broadcasting team?" Davis in particular was awful. He looked like he was doing a class assignment instead of national television.

I'm pretty sure I'm really going to miss the ABC team.

[Brian Swartz]

given it essentially a toss up by numbers, it seems those that want Michigan would like the following:

1. The Michigan-OSU game to be meaningless.
2. The Florida-Arkansas SEC title game to be meaningless.

By voting Michigan at No. 2, you would be essentially making arguably the top 2 regular season games mean nothing. Given how close Michigan and Florida were before the game, I can't see a scenerio where Florida should not get a title chance if they clearly beat the No. 8 team in the country. After all, had Florida lost, they certainly would not have had a shot at the championship.

Um, no. If those games are both meaningless then Michigan was undefeated the rest of the way, whereas Florida lost to Auburn. In that scenario there isn't even an argument. And they didn't 'clearly beat' Arkansas -- they trailed in the third quarter before finishing well. Grats to them for doing so, but it isn't like they dominated the game.

Furthermore, I don't view the numbers as a 'toss-up', if you look at the body of work over the whole season(not just the three games from each team). Florida pretty much never looked impressive after the first month, did far poorer against the one common opponent, and had more than it's share of close shaves. The consistent level of play comparison for each team is tilted heavily towards Michigan.

[quote]

1. Not necessarily. It depends on the wins, how they played in those games, etc. You can't win games not on the schedule.

2. A little bit of a bump I understand. Florida didn't get a little bump. They got a massive shift, from a game they didn't look that great in, while not being punished for looking downright mediocre against FSU the week before. I would also understand it if Florida beat Arkansas 31-7 or something, I think they'd have a very fair argument. But they didn't.

[Galaxy]

BTW, to tease everyone, here's what an 8-team playoff would look like by the BCS:

#1 OSU vs. #8 Boise State
#2 UF vs. #7 Wisconsin
#3 Michigan vs. #6 Louisville
#4 LSU vs. #5 USC

:eek:

Would be exciting. Only one problem, Notre Dame is missing. They would magically be put in someway. :)

[Galaxy]

On another note, did anyone else watch the selection show and think, "This is the national championship broadcasting team?" Davis in particular was awful. He looked like he was doing a class assignment instead of national television.

I'm pretty sure I'm really going to miss the ABC team.

Have either of these two ever broadcasted before?

[VPI97]

What if they did win, would you argue that Ohio State or Florida have a equal chance?
Florida would have gotten the nod then...Michigan's one loss resume is better than Ohio State's would have been, IMO.

My problem with Florida is they just weren't impressive. They just got by a couple of average-to-poor teams.
Meh...the only games UF had that were decided by a touchdown or less were at Tennessee (ask Cal how hard it is to win there), the UGA game (big rivalry), at Vandy (UF had a 19 point fourth quarter lead), USC (Spurrier) and at FSU (rivalry). Aside from Vanderbilt, I wouldn't have thought any of those games would have been a blowout, regardless of how good the teams are.

[miami_fan]

On another note, did anyone else watch the selection show and think, "This is the national championship broadcasting team?" Davis in particular was awful. He looked like he was doing a class assignment instead of national television.

I'm pretty sure I'm really going to miss the ABC team.

Since you brought it up,

Sugar Bowl-Terry Bradshaw and Howie Long join Kenny Albert. Reporting from the sidelines is Jeanne Zelasko

Orange Bowl-Pat Haden, Terry Donahue and Play-by-Play Announcer Matt Vasgersian. Handling sideline reporting is FSN's pro and college football reporter Laura Okmin

Fiesta Bowl-play-by-play announcer Thom Brennaman and lead analysts Barry Alvarez and Charles Davis with Chris Myers on the sidelines

[Joe]

Would be exciting. Only one problem, Notre Dame is missing. They would magically be put in someway. :)

And the Big 12. And the ACC.

[JPhillips]

Does anyone know why Fox isn't using any of its regular NFL folks? They have a number of experienced NFL play by play and analysts. Is there a reason why they are using inexperienced teams with no experience together?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Meanwhile, watching the ESPN bowl show right now, I'm wondering if Lee Corso is about half drunk.

He's funny ... but he don't look good & sounds kinda tipsy (even for Corso).

[Craptacular]

Which ND wins impressed you?

Their final rankings are still as a result of their lofty preseason #2 ranking, which is why many of us want those polls to not be unveiled until later in the season.

None of their wins were overly impressive ... beating Georgia Tech on the road in their first game was probably the best one, and the next game against PSU would be #2. Still, what other team should be in there? The only other eligible team under the rules (top-14 and 9+ wins) was West Virginia. Their most impressive win was at home in triple overtime over Rutgers, but they also lost at home to South Florida and lost to BC. Even if we go outside the top 14, you can shoot holes in the other teams' resumes (VT lost at home to the same G Tech team ND beat on the road; Rutgers got killed by Cincinnati). What team got screwed by a lower preseason ranking? The computer rankings had Notre Dame higher than any other team not in the BCS ... a few of them start with preseason biases, but as the season wears on, those preseason rankings reduce to having a negligible effect.

OK, I'm going to stop defendng a team I hate. ;) I just want to know who ELSE should have gotten in.

[st.cronin]

None of their wins were overly impressive ... beating Georgia Tech on the road in their first game was probably the best one, and the next game against PSU would be #2. Still, what other team should be in there? The only other eligible team under the rules (top-14 and 9+ wins) was West Virginia. Their most impressive win was at home in triple overtime over Rutgers, but they also lost at home to South Florida and lost to BC. Even if we go outside the top 14, you can shoot holes in the other teams' resumes (VT lost at home to the same G Tech team ND beat on the road; Rutgers got killed by Cincinnati). What team got screwed by a lower preseason ranking? The computer rankings had Notre Dame higher than any other team not in the BCS ... a few of them start with preseason biases, but as the season wears on, those preseason rankings reduce to having a negligible effect.

OK, I'm going to stop defendng a team I hate. ;) I just want to know who ELSE should have gotten in.

Hawaii?

[miami_fan]

Does anyone know why Fox isn't using any of its regular NFL folks? They have a number of experienced NFL play by play and analysts. Is there a reason why they are using inexperienced teams with no experience together?

I would much rather them use guys who have some experience with the college game. I remember when ABC used the Monday night crew (I think it was Michaels, Gifford and Dierdorf) for a bowl game and it was brutal. I expect the same from Bradshaw and Long, especially since this is Long's first time as a game analyst.

[cartman]

Like I mentioned in another thread, it seems that Michigan is getting punished for having their bye weeks at the end of the season. If they had played one of their games from earlier in the season yesterday, I wonder if the shift of votes to Florida would have been as pronounced.

[miami_fan]

Like I mentioned in another thread, it seems that Michigan is getting punished for having their bye weeks at the end of the season. If they had played one of their games from earlier in the season yesterday, I wonder if the shift of votes to Florida would have been as pronounced.

I disagree. I think Michigan gets punished for losing their conference. Remember these are coaches we are dealing with. I think most coaches have the belief that you have to win your conference to be eligible for a national title.

[cartman]

I disagree. I think Michigan gets punished for losing their conference. Remember these are coaches we are dealing with. I think most coaches have the belief that you have to win your conference to be eligible for a national title.

If that was the case, then why were they still ranked #2 in the coaches poll after they lost to OSU? By your statement, they should have been ranked lower than both USC and Florida after that game, since those schools still had a chance to win their conference while Michigan didn't.

[JeffNights]

It'd be definitely be cool if college football were run like the WWE. Then Vince McMahon could suddenly appear on the Titantron and make matchups like this on the fly.

Awesome. ;)

[VPI97]

If that was the case, then why were they still ranked #2 in the coaches poll after they lost to OSU?
Because, at the time, the polls didn't matter for squat. The only time the polls actually mean anything is for the final BCS calculations...today was the day for the pollsters to correct any mistakes.

[miami_fan]

If that was the case, then why were they still ranked #2 in the coaches poll after they lost to OSU? By your statement, they should have been ranked lower than both USC and Florida after that game, since those schools still had a chance to win their conference while Michigan didn't.

Good question. Another good question would be what was so impressive about Florida that moved them up? That is where conference championship comes into play. My basis is the historical uproar each time we had a non conference winner playing in the championship game.

[Arles]

Um, no. If those games are both meaningless then Michigan was undefeated the rest of the way, whereas Florida lost to Auburn. In that scenario there isn't even an argument.
You are missing the point. Here it is restated:

IF (and this is the big IF) you vote Michigan number 2, you are stating that Michigan's loss to Ohio State meant nothing AND Florida's win over Arkansas meant nothing when it comes to the championship.

And they didn't 'clearly beat' Arkansas -- they trailed in the third quarter before finishing well.
They beat a top 10 team by 10 points. From the 12 minute mark of the 4th quarter on, the game was never within one possession. That's clearly beating a top team.

Grats to them for doing so, but it isn't like they dominated the game.
I didn't say they dominated, I said they clearly won (ie, no bad call or fluke event at the end - like, say, the fumbled snaps by Ohio State against Michigan).

Furthermore, I don't view the numbers as a 'toss-up', if you look at the body of work over the whole season(not just the three games from each team). Florida pretty much never looked impressive after the first month, did far poorer against the one common opponent, and had more than it's share of close shaves. The consistent level of play comparison for each team is tilted heavily towards Michigan.
Michigan's a good team and so is Florida. You can debate who did better against average to below average teams (and I think Michigan probably get's the nod here). My point is that the best non-subjective manner to judge these teams is how they did against BCS opponents. And, Florida has one more win than Michigan when that is measure.

[cartman]

I'm just not so sure if the Michigan-Wisconsin game was played yesterday instead of back in September, that Michigan wouldn't be in the title game, even though Florida won their conference title. It not only who you play, but when you play them that factors in.

I guess the BCS powers that be are firmly in the camp that believe there is no such thing as bad press. I hear the argument often that people are talking so much about it that means it is good for college football. The only problem is 99% of the talk is what a crock the system had become.

[Arles]

And the Big 12. And the ACC.
I just went by the top 8 in the BCS. Had I done it in a "fair" way, I would put the champs of ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big east, Pac 10 and SEC in. Then, I would take the top 2 atlarge bids with an exception if a non-BCS team is in the top 10. So, in this case, it would be:

1. Ohio State vs. 8. Boise State (at large 2)
2. Florida vs. 7. Michigan (at large 1)
3. USC vs. 6. Wake Forest
4. Louisville vs. 5. Oklahoma

[Arles]

If that was the case, then why were they still ranked #2 in the coaches poll after they lost to OSU? By your statement, they should have been ranked lower than both USC and Florida after that game, since those schools still had a chance to win their conference while Michigan didn't.
Because neither of those two had won their conference yet. But, once Florida a) won their conference and b) had just one loss, I think that was enough for many coaches to put them ahead.

[Celeval]

Just ask youself how the media could justify voting Florida ahead of Michigan after Michigian didn't even play.

... seriously? Teams get passed all the time in the middle of the regular season when they don't play.

[Ksyrup]

So, given it was essentially a toss up by numbers, it seems those that want Michigan would like the following:

1. The Michigan-OSU game to be meaningless.
2. The Florida-Arkansas SEC title game to be meaningless.

By voting Michigan at No. 2, you would be essentially making arguably the top 2 regular season games mean nothing. Given how close Michigan and Florida were before the game, I can't see a scenerio where Florida should not get a title chance if they clearly beat the No. 8 team in the country. After all, had Florida lost, they certainly would not have had a shot at the championship.

I'm so sick of the "meaningless" argument. No, those games aren't meaningless. They determined their respective conference championships. That was the conclusion of the regular season. In 99% of sports leagues, you then move on to the next season - the post-season.

I don't give a rat's ass about going undefeated or how every game is a playoff because if you lose, you're pretty much out of the picture. That's a flaw with college football, a minus, not a plus. I want a real season, one that is divided into regular and post-seasons. You win your conference championship, whether there's a title game or not, and it only means so much until you prove your worth in the post-season.

Florida and Michigan both deserve to be there, IMO. The only reason I think Michigan deserves it more is because I don't think there is any justification for dropping them a spot when they didn't play. And actually, they were dropped TWICE without playing - once when USC beat ND, and now when UF won. That's a load of shit, and I hope Bud Selig calls the BCS Bowl game in the 3rd OT at 24-24 and blames it on the fact that Paul Maguire's telestrator stopped working from his remote location in the Wrigley Field bleachers. Or something along those lines.

[Celeval]

Look at the non-conference games for both teams.

Michigan: Vanderbilt, Central Michigan and Notre Dame.
Two cupcakes and a BCS team.

Florida: Southern Miss, Central Florida and Western Carolina.
Three cupcakes, one of them in November.

Conference schedules are beyond the control of any team, but Florida doesn't have a worthwhile non-conference game and even played a directional school in November.

If that's your argument, then why not:

Sacramento State, Utah, Wyoming, Oregon State.

Boise State has a better non-conf schedule than Florida, then put them in the game.

Note: this is a sarcastic argument. I care about strength of schedule, but out of / in conference only matters to a certain point.

[Arles]

Florida and Michigan both deserve to be there, IMO. The only reason I think Michigan deserves it more is because I don't think there is any justification for dropping them a spot when they didn't play. And actually, they were dropped TWICE without playing - once when USC beat ND, and now when UF won. That's a load of shit
Tell that to West Virginia and Louisville. In week 7, WVU (5-0) was #4 in the coaches poll and Michigan (6-0) was #5. After both teams won, Michigan ended up at #3 and WVU #4. Michigan also leaped over Louisville when both were undefeated.

Coaches vote all the time to move teams ahead of others even in situations where both teams win.

But, to your second point, I'd vote for any kind of Armaggedon possible to get a playoff. My hope is an OT Florida win over Ohio State on a blown call and a 20-point Michigan drubbing of USC. That might throw a wrench in this system.

[Celeval]

The only reason I think Michigan deserves it more is because I don't think there is any justification for dropping them a spot when they didn't play.

This is the argument I'm sick of. How does this make any sense? Seriously? UF had an off week on 10/21 while Michigan played and beat (now-unranked) Iowa. Here, let's move that game to this week. Know what? Same records. Want a better team? Okay, move the Notre Dame win to this week, that does look impressive. But, oh, wait, Michigan jumped from #11/#13 to #6/#6 with that win. Maybe they wouldn't BE in front of Florida if they hadn't already played their games.

Even better. Directional North and South are both ranked #4 (tie). Directional North plays and beats #20, #21 and #22 while Directional South is idle. Directional North is now ranked #4, Directional South #5. Meanwhile, DN now takes three weeks off and Directional South beats #1, #2, and #3. Ooooops, can't drop North while they don't play. Now North is #1 and South is #2. That makes a ton of sense.

[Celeval]

My hope is an OT Florida win over Ohio State on a blown call and a 20-point Michigan drubbing of USC. That might throw a wrench in this system.

Florida over Ohio State (OT, bad call)
Michigan over USC (3 turnovers apiece in the rain, ugly game)
Boise State by 12 over Oklahoma.

[dime]

the answer seems to be for more superconferences and adding more stupid conference title games. another reason to loathe the SEC. maybe after florida gets embarassed, we won't have 5 SEC teams in the preseason top 10 again next year. it's obvious now that even after they get exposed as middling teams, the "notoriety" of the conference is helped as they all take turns beating each other and exchanging ranking spots.

[Blade6119]

the answer seems to be for more superconferences and adding more stupid conference title games. another reason to loathe the SEC. maybe after florida gets embarassed, we won't have 5 SEC teams in the preseason top 10 again next year. it's obvious now that even after they get exposed as middling teams, the "notoriety" of the conference is helped as they all take turns beating each other and exchanging ranking spots.

No, the solution is to do like the PAC 10 and have every team play each other. That way, wisconsin would have played Ohio state and would deserve a high ranking or be exposed

[dime]

badgers are 4-2 vs tressel, so I think it would have been a really good game. the superconferences don't play each team, but I guess it doesn't matter because they arbitrary divisions that leave LSU out of the "title game" so that a phony team like arkansas decides who gets to win the conference.

[kcchief19]

I just went by the top 8 in the BCS. Had I done it in a "fair" way, I would put the champs of ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big east, Pac 10 and SEC in. Then, I would take the top 2 atlarge bids with an exception if a non-BCS team is in the top 10. So, in this case, it would be:

1. Ohio State vs. 8. Boise State (at large 2)
2. Florida vs. 7. Michigan (at large 1)
3. USC vs. 6. Wake Forest
4. Louisville vs. 5. Oklahoma
I defy anyone to look at this line up of games and say this is bad for college football. I might be in favor of seeding the teams differently, but the gist is there.

As a Missouri fan, I'd still be excited my Tigers are in the Sun Bowl. The only teams who wouldn't be excited about their bowls would be teams who are happy about their current bowls as it is. Nothing will impact how happy Nevada is to be playing Miami in the Smurf Turf Bowl just as nothing will impact how depressed Miami is to be playing in it. A playoff wouldn't change that.

[Galaxy]

No, the solution is to do like the PAC 10 and have every team play each other. That way, wisconsin would have played Ohio state and would deserve a high ranking or be exposed

The Pac-10 doesn't have every team play each other. Each team gets to miss one team a year. Unless this changed in the last year.

[Mr. Wednesday]

What do people think we would be looking at if Michigan had beat Ohio State. Just curious.
Michigan and Ohio State switch places bowl-wise, and Florida has a more decisive advantage over Ohio State, probably winning the computer rankings outright rather than splitting them as they did with Michigan.

Not really all that remarkable... definitely less angst.

[Galaxy]

This is the argument I'm sick of. How does this make any sense? Seriously? UF had an off week on 10/21 while Michigan played and beat (now-unranked) Iowa. Here, let's move that game to this week. Know what? Same records. Want a better team? Okay, move the Notre Dame win to this week, that does look impressive. But, oh, wait, Michigan jumped from #11/#13 to #6/#6 with that win. Maybe they wouldn't BE in front of Florida if they hadn't already played their games.

Even better. Directional North and South are both ranked #4 (tie). Directional North plays and beats #20, #21 and #22 while Directional South is idle. Directional North is now ranked #4, Directional South #5. Meanwhile, DN now takes three weeks off and Directional South beats #1, #2, and #3. Ooooops, can't drop North while they don't play. Now North is #1 and South is #2. That makes a ton of sense.

The problem I have is the potential over dropping a team, like Michigan, more so to avoid a re-match.

[Blade6119]

The Pac-10 doesn't have every team play each other. Each team gets to miss one team a year. Unless this changed in the last year.

It has...this year was the first year every team plays every team

[Swaggs]

No, the solution is to do like the PAC 10 and have every team play each other. That way, wisconsin would have played Ohio state and would deserve a high ranking or be exposed

That really only works out well in the Pac-10. And, even then, only with the 12-game schedule. None of the other BCS conferences have exactly 10-teams AND they all want to get enough cheapie, OOC wins so that they can be bowl eligible and bring in bowl/TV money for the conference. It works pretty well with nine conference games, but would be real tough with ten or eleven.

[Galaxy]

It has...this year was the first year every team plays every team

Thanks for that information, did not know that.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'd prefer a 16-team playoff. Each conference gets an autobid (ends the charade of having to cook up special stuff to get e.g. Boise State in), which leaves five at-large teams (or possibly six this year, as one non-BCS conf. may not qualify). Max three per conference instead of two.

[Ragone]

Honestly, i'd like to see the notre dame rule for the bcs be scrapped.. force them to go to a conference or be treated like a mid-major

[ISiddiqui]

Honestly, i'd like to see the notre dame rule for the bcs be scrapped.. force them to go to a conference or be treated like a mid-major

So would most, but we all know that won't happen for a long while (until the "Notre Dame mystique" wears off a bit more).