Werewolf LIII -- Boo! (GAME OVER!)

[SnDvls]

and there it is so again I'll put it back on

Vote St. C

[SnDvls]

my connection seems really slow tonight...and it's thundering & lightning so I'm going to leave now.

[Passacaglia]

Can't speak for Alan but a post by NTN on page 3 is my reason

The only post by him on page 3 that I see is that both the Day 1 leaders scare him? :confused:

FTR, I don't see how ntn could have scanned me, if we're to believe that he scanned Barkeep, then Chief Rum.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

FTR, I don't see how ntn could have scanned me, if we're to believe that he scanned Barkeep, then Chief Rum.

This is what I'm wondering as well. I saw a post (not on page three) where you can read into him clearing you, but if that's the case he couldn't have scanned Barkeep, Chief, and you. So who's the odd man out?

[st.cronin]

This is what I'm wondering as well. I saw a post (not on page three) where you can read into him clearing you, but if that's the case he couldn't have scanned Barkeep, Chief, and you. So who's the odd man out?

Can somebody point this post out?

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I tend to slightly trust Pass a little here, and so Chief's initial vote looks a little fishy to me.

This was his post on day two that appears like he scanned Pass on night one. In the same post, he mentions that he feels like Barkeep is good, so I doubt Barkeep was the night two target. I'm guessing he scanned Chief last night, found out he was a wolf, and did his best to draw attention to that without coming out directly and saying he was the seer.

So now I'm thinking that Pass is good and Barkeep hasn't been cleared after all.

[Chief Rum]

I am not sure that the Ardent defense fits you well Chief.

Quiet you! Yeah, it was forced. I need to come up with a better "I have been outed" defense, eh? :D

Or I need to give ardent my log in and let him have a go.

[st.cronin]

Based on his posts earlier today, I still believe Barkeep was scanned, not Pass.

[Chief Rum]

Chief, you fit my profile of someone who would go after Lathum, given the circumstances, on Day 1. As I have been the other major vote leader, I saw no reason to look farther. It's great when you can feel good about self defense.

Heh, I thought someone would say that. I'm too obvious right now. Every seer checks me out in the first couple days. :)

Well, at least you guys know if I reach Day Four, I am probably good.

Good luck, wolves!

[Passacaglia]

Based on his posts earlier today, I still believe Barkeep was scanned, not Pass.

I tend to agree. If he had scanned me, why would he mention Barkeep in the same post as the one where he outs Chief Rum?

[ntndeacon]

Good Luck to all my fellow good guys. we got one of them. go get the other!

[path12]

Your friendly GM would like to graciously thank ntndeacon for volunteering to be your guest GM for tomorrow and Friday as path hits Vegas on opening week of college football. Chief is also available to answer questions and such but is working Friday.

Sorry for having to bail out, but c'mon, it's Vegas. Enjoy the game.

[Alan T]

I've done a pretty poor job of hunting back through people's posts this game due to RL stuff, and that includes what ntn had previously posted.. My only thoughts here are that I could go one of two ways trying to figure out ntn's intentions...

1) His feeling that Barkeep is good could be the same reason as I feel Barkeep is good, and has nothing to do with him using the seer role to figure it out.. If this is true, then Passacaglia likely was scanned by Ntn instead.

2) After Barkeep's mis-unvote Ntn decided to scan Barkeep and figure out if he was good or not, and found out he was good, thus leaving Passacaglia unscanned.

We know he scanned Chief on one of the days, his comment when he first voted Chief makes me a bit puzzled to when though. He mentioned that he said he had a hunch about Chief on day 2 (I don't remember him saying that, but I've been missing alot this game), but finally decided to vote him on day 3. Would this mean that he actually scanned Chief night 1, but didn't out himself just yet to try to find another one? If this was the case, then I would assume Ntn scanned Chief night 1, then Passacaglia night 2, as Barkeep's "flub" was on day 1, and if he was to be scanned, that was the likely night for it.

Either way, I still standby my previous statement that I feel Barkeep and Passacaglia are poor choices for today's votes. I also still stand by what I said that I felt Ntn's outing himself was obvious enough for almost anyone to catch it, and I doubt the wolves would have tried a move to save Chief. I don't "think" that as a wolf Jonathan would have hopped in and put himself out on a limb like that to protect Chief after a reveal.

I obviously feel less sure about Jonathan's being good as I do Barkeep or Pass.. but either way that leaves me the two choices to vote between of Cronin and Sndvls. My vote currently is on Cronin, but I could move it to Sndvls easily enough.. especially after the posts from last night, I feel a bit worse about sndvls now.

[Alan T]

Reading through last night, this quote caught me as a bit odd:

Vote SnDvls

I agree that Barkeep is likely cleared. Tomorrow will be another very busy day for me, but at some point I'm going to go back and see if anybody else jumps out at me, but I was suspicious of Sn early yesterday (after he voted Barkeep).

Its odd to me because this is how the exchange went yesterday morning:


I'm going to stick with my vote from yesterday,

Vote Barkeep49

I also have no reason to change my vote from yesterday

Vote Barkeep

nothing personal my friend

hmmmmm

I believe that it is a mistake to vote for Barkeep. I would hope those that hae done so would change there votes. I said yesterday that Ihad a feeling about someone. I am going to go with that feeling today.

Vote Chief Rum

Ok, keeping in mind that Lathum trusted ntn (and Lathum's instincts are usually good)

unvote Barkeep49
vote Chief Rum

Maybe its nothing, but both Sndvls and Cronin voted barkeep day 2, then both came out on day 3 to vote him. Which is why I don't understand Cronin's point about finding Sndvls suspicious for voting Barkeep... Unless he meant because he didn't later move his vote? (Even though I don't remember seeing Sndvls back in the thread during most of the course of yesterday).. THen again, if Sndvls was the other wolf, and the piling on Chief had started, I too might have wanted to stay away from the thread to purposely not have to move my vote and then have deniability of saying it occured after I had left...

[st.cronin]

Alan, Sns vote for Barkeep bothered me because it seemed careless, like there was no thought behind it. Nothing really concrete, but as soon as he voted, my spidey sense went bananas, and I was ready to move my vote, if not on Sn SOMEWHERE.

[Alan T]

I guess that is what I am having problems with.. from my vantage point.. you and Sndvls made pretty much the exact same move/exact same play from day 2-day 3.. Why would he doing the same thing you did seem fishy to you?

vote Barkeep

not quite sure I buy his mix up today
Which part don't you buy? This thread (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=60571) verifies my story about being up later than I wanted and it being the first day of school. And let's just be clear: my mix-up was accidentally re-voting for someone. You really think it's a wolf play to unvote someone you're not voting for only to revote someone? I think it was clear what my intention was, to unvote the bodyguard, and as soon as it was pointed out I fixed it.
Vote Barkeep49
dola,

I don't have a real good feel for anybody in this game yet, but I'll be around today to move my vote if neccesary.
I definitely would have, that's for sure. But I didn't, since I'm just a cast member.

I also think you would have made that same play.

Then on day 3, back to back posts about 12-14 minutes apart, the difference on day 3 was he voted later then the previous day and you voted earlier than the previous day and put your vote in first.

Now as a villager, I could buy you feeling odd about someone quickly throwing a vote on there right after you had to start off an early run, but in my mind that is cancelled out due to you having followed him on that vote the previous day.


I'm going to stick with my vote from yesterday,

Vote Barkeep49
I also have no reason to change my vote from yesterday

Vote Barkeep

nothing personal my friend


And as I looked through to try to figure out the subtle stuff I missed from the past 2-3 days, I found this post from ntn which had been referenced by someone else earlier a few times.


I tend to slightly trust Pass a little here, and so Chief's initial vote looks a little fishy to me. but I don't want to throw a fifth name out there this time. He might be someone for discussion tomorrow. Of the 4 candidates listed....

1. I have already said I at least trust Pass a touch so let's throw him out.

2. Barkeep's faux-pas with the voting makes him look more human to me, so for the moment he is out of danger from my vote.

3. I think 4 tied gives the wolves an easier time for a switch that will be not as noticed.

which leaves us with Render. I don't have strong feelings for him, but ibelieve he is the best I can vote for of those 4 candidates this evening. therefore....
Vote Render


This came on day 2, so obviously Ntn could have only scanned 1 of the 3 at this point (between Barkeep, Chief and Pass).. my guess is that he found chief's move suspicious, and then scanned him on day 2. He seems pretty cut and dry in support of Pass in point #1 here, plus putting it first in the list makes me feel that it was Passacaglia who was scanned day 1 and not Barkeep. His point about Barkeep references directly his feeling Barkeep's mess up makes him look more human so for the moment he is out of danger. This follows my exact reasoning as well for discounting barkeep as being bad.

So from this, I will assume that Passacaglia is good, and just stick with my "hunch" that Barkeep is good.

[st.cronin]

Except, Alan, on day 2, I had said I was planning to vote for Barkeep before the day started. So both days, it was me that moved first, although technically yes, Sn did post his vote first on day 2. A minor point, perhaps.

Anyway I can't really explain it very well, except to say that the sequence on day 3 set off alarm bells in my subconscious.

[Passacaglia]

cronin -- Why didn't the sequence on Day 2 set off alarm bells? You said you plan to vote for Barkeep at the end of Day 1, then SD votes for him early Day 2. Why didn't that worry you then? After seeing that, you put a second vote on BK, which could have started a bandwagon (not that that was necessarily a bad thing -- at that time, I was considering voting for BK, too, but for different reasons than the voting mixup). Is it just that it took TWO days of SD piling on to your decision for you to get worried?

[st.cronin]

cronin -- Why didn't the sequence on Day 2 set off alarm bells? You said you plan to vote for Barkeep at the end of Day 1, then SD votes for him early Day 2. Why didn't that worry you then? After seeing that, you put a second vote on BK, which could have started a bandwagon (not that that was necessarily a bad thing -- at that time, I was considering voting for BK, too, but for different reasons than the voting mixup). Is it just that it took TWO days of SD piling on to your decision for you to get worried?


Neither sequence would normally alarm me at all, and I can't really explain why day 3 did, except that on day 3 I was much less worried about Barkeep being bad - my vote was much more of a trial vote, to see what reactions it inspired, whereas on day 2 I thought it would actually be good to see Barkeep lynched.

[SnDvls]

Not that it matters but I voted Barkeep on day 1 for his screw up, well before St. C mentioned his "I'm going to vote for BK on day two statement" so.

Like I said it's a he vs. me day so lets get this going and over with.

[st.cronin]

Not that it matters but I voted Barkeep on day 1 for his screw up, well before St. C mentioned his "I'm going to vote for BK on day two statement" so.

Like I said it's a he vs. me day so lets get this going and over with.

I don't actually know that that's a good village play, to tell the truth. The last few games have shaken my "werewolf" confidence, and I'm not at all sure of myself.

[Passacaglia]

Not that it matters but I voted Barkeep on day 1 for his screw up, well before St. C mentioned his "I'm going to vote for BK on day two statement" so.

Like I said it's a he vs. me day so lets get this going and over with.

I see two votes for cronin, one for you, and one for Alan. And one of the votes for cronin is yours. Why are you leaving off Alan? Is it that you're thinking that if you vote for Alan, he'll put his vote on you, so it's self-preservation?

[SnDvls]

I see two votes for cronin, one for you, and one for Alan. And one of the votes for cronin is yours. Why are you leaving off Alan? Is it that you're thinking that if you vote for Alan, he'll put his vote on you, so it's self-preservation?

Sorry I just didn't feel like the vibe was a three way race from the goings on today and last night. It seemed it was an either or with me and St. C....I guess looking back the only person really pushing the either or is Alan the 3rd person.

[Alan T]

Sorry I just didn't feel like the vibe was a three way race from the goings on today and last night. It seemed it was an either or with me and St. C....I guess looking back the only person really pushing the either or is Alan the 3rd person.

I'm not going to vote for myself, and I still feel strongly that both Barkeep and Passacaglia are good. That leaves you, cronin and Jonathan. I explained my reasons for not looking at Jonathan today and that gives me the scenerio of trying to figure out between you two..

Its not that I'm pushing this as much as its all I have left after eliminating people.

[st.cronin]

The "New Guy" is still in the game, but his role doesn't matter anymore. So we likely have The Host and 1 dark spirit left. I am not the host, but it might make sense for the host to step forward at this point.

[Passacaglia]

Whoa. Really?

[Passacaglia]

No way.

VOTE ST.CRONIN

[Alan T]

Just a warning, I'm leaving in 4 hours for likely until deadline. I'll be more than happy to defend myself and answer any questions people may have if they are thinking of voting me. You just need to get them in the next few hours.

I'll be highly suspicious of anyone who tries to jump on me after I've announced I won't be here. It likely will just be someone looking for an easy lynch of a villager.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

The "New Guy" is still in the game, but his role doesn't matter anymore.

Going back to the infamous Post 55, I don't think the New Guy role was in play. Either way it doesn't matter, but just thought I would throw it out there.

And I strongly disagree about the host coming out. There's still a chance that we will end up at 1:1 at the end and we'll need the host then to win. No need to come out now.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Going back to the infamous Post 55, I don't think the New Guy role was in play.

Never mind. I just read over that role description again and the New Guy doesn't know he's the New Guy, so that PM wouldn't have been sent. I'll shut up now.

[st.cronin]

There are 6 players left. Assuming that Barkeep is cleared and that there is one Dark Spirit left, if the Host comes out we have a 1/4 chance of lynching the last Dark Spirit. Maybe its too early, but it feels like grasping at straws, and we're making it very easy for the last Spirit to hide.

[st.cronin]

dola, the scenario I'm worried about is, lets say SnDvls is the Host, and he waits til close to deadline and he is the vote leader to reveal. That night he is killed, but everybody who voted for him is excused because they didn't know he was the Host.

[Alan T]

Based on previous hints that were dropped in earlier days, I am pretty sure I know who the host is, which is why I based my vote choices on Sndvls and St.cronin for today. I might be wrong, I've been wrong before and will be again in the future.. but I agree that I don't think the host should come out at all unless his neck is on the line.. Right now I don't see that is the case.

[st.cronin]

Well, if it must be me, let it be me. I'm playing a very blah game, not sure which way is up.

[Barkeep49]

I don't get why Alan is getting a free pass for his being around after a clear seer reveal and staying somewhere other than Chief. Further, he was party to a distracting conversation. I am honored that people voting for me is seen as suspicious, but I feel like Alan's actions are harder to explain than that of SnDvls or Cronin.

[Passacaglia]

I don't get why Alan is getting a free pass for his being around after a clear seer reveal and staying somewhere other than Chief. Further, he was party to a distracting conversation. I am honored that people voting for me is seen as suspicious, but I feel like Alan's actions are harder to explain than that of SnDvls or Cronin.

Barkeep -- what do you think about who was cleared by ntn? I'd imagine that anyone thinking that voting for you is suspicious thinks you were cleared.

[Alan T]

I don't get why Alan is getting a free pass for his being around after a clear seer reveal and staying somewhere other than Chief. Further, he was party to a distracting conversation. I am honored that people voting for me is seen as suspicious, but I feel like Alan's actions are harder to explain than that of SnDvls or Cronin.

I am glad you brought this up. Lets talk about this a little bit. When you have someone reveal the way Ntn did (where he didn't come right out and say he was the seer, but it was pretty obvious), you seem pretty sure on getting a 1 for 1 trade (as long as it wasn't bad luck and Ntn had scanned the "new guy". After that point, you are left the remaining of the game trying to discern from the voting patterns and comments in thread who the last wolf(wolves) are.

So if you are pretty sure to get one wolf there, which is better for the village at that point? A run away vote that everyone piles onto, or a vote that is kept closer to see if anyone makes any moves or tip their hands any? I was rather antagonistic to Jonathan last night because of his vote for me at that point felt like a wolfish move to me.. I pushed some buttons expecting certain types of responses, and the way he responded made me feel a bit better about him actually there. At the end of the day, where it was kept purposely close allowing for someone to make a move one way or another, and nothing happened it led me to my point this morning that I had with my vote.

I felt in what happened yesterday, the other wolf knew their teammate was a gonner, so might as well just blend in to the crowd.. Not make a fuss, not draw attention to yourself. The way for a wolf to win when its just one left is basically to try to buy as much trust as they can.. They will likely remove people who are trusted the next two nights (ie: Passacaglia and to a lesser degree you/Barkeep), in hopes of getting the final day vote between them and two villagers.. and then having one villager make the wrong guess leaving it at 1 to 1 odds.. Thats the only way they can win then.

I could be really wrong about JOnathan, but right now I feel the final wolf is either sndvls or St.cronin based on what I have seen so far this game. I haven't played a great game here, but I'm trying to read into things in places that might help.

[Alan T]

Dola, and just to clarify, I was around in the thread at the end last night (not something that will happen tonight though), so I had full ability to move my vote onto Chief if needed at the end. It became very obvious though that Chief had given up and that wasn't going to happen at the finale though. Usually a wolf won't make a last minute move to save another wolf unless the game was on the line. With there being 8 people left, and 2 wolves, I don't see that they would have done it there, but felt it worth taking the chance at keeping it close just in case.

[st.cronin]

I felt like I understood what Alan was doing re: Chief and didn't think it was particularly wolfish. It's not out of the question that he is a wolf, though. I still don't understand his exchange with Jonathan E, though.

[Alan T]

My early exchange with Jonathan was mostly out of disbelief. I spent a good bit of time looking through the rules regarding Telle's role. Then he seemed to make stuff up to call me a lier.. Since for me it seemed obvious that ntn was handing us chief on a silver platter, combined with him quoting stuff that wasn't in the rules, I felt somethign was really off about it.

Then when I actually clicked on his follow through link to the quote, I saw it was something Path posted later on page 2 regarding the role. At that point, I changed my tone a bit and was more pushing Jonathan's buttons to see how he would respond. If he was a fellow wolf of Chief's his goal would have been to look alot less supportive of Chief, and more of someone trying to throw something out into the mix to distract the vote away. If there were two wolves, you don't want to get caught with both of them having their pants down after a seer reveal... So the fact he stayed so heavy set on that conversation, I started realizing that I didn't think he was the other wolf, and left the conversation at that. I feel this is a much bigger assumption on my part than my assumption that Barkeep isn't a wolf, but still its one I feel I have to make in order to narrow my targets down to two.

My goal today was to try to figure out one or two targets that i feel is pretty confidently not the host and has a decent chance to at least break even chance of being the last wolf.

[Passacaglia]

I felt like I understood what Alan was doing re: Chief and didn't think it was particularly wolfish. It's not out of the question that he is a wolf, though. I still don't understand his exchange with Jonathan E, though.

I agree with the first part of this -- I think Alan showed that he knew what was going on yesterday. And I can see where he's coming from with regard to JE -- as I said yesterday, I read post #2 also, and wasn't sure if Telle knew who the wolves were. I don't know how it expanded from that -- I'm willing to buy that Alan was trying to set us up for the next day.

[Barkeep49]

I hate to get all meta on us, but I feel like we've reached a point where people are intentionally going with typical wolf moves and then claiming "why would I obviously do wolfy thing X"? I think we all agree that Alan knew what was going on yesterday. At deadline he could have switched his vote if he truly was trying to keep things close, but he didn't. If he knew CR was a wolf he should have made sure, however it looked, that he was on the right side of that event.

[Barkeep49]

Barkeep -- what do you think about who was cleared by ntn? I'd imagine that anyone thinking that voting for you is suspicious thinks you were cleared.
Honestly I think you were cleared and not me by NTN. He used the same phrase (a gut feeling) about both of you. That consistency in phrasing is important to deciphering his non-outright reveal.

[Passacaglia]

Honestly I think you were cleared and not me by NTN. He used the same phrase (a gut feeling) about both of you. That consistency in phrasing is important to deciphering his non-outright reveal.

That's interesting. At first, I agreed with you, that ntn played the seer role pretty well -- but now with all this doubt, I'm not so sure. I guess for me, it's all the same -- I know I'm good, and I think Barkeep is good.

Anyway, perhaps the important thing is the vote. I was all but set to vote for SD, until cronin pushed for the host to reveal (an obviously woflish move, and I'm not giving him a "why would I do that if I were a wolf" pass). But I feel like my vote could be changed back -- I was totally on cronin's side regarding voting patterns between the two, and I felt like SD might have been pulling for a 1-1 trade.

[Alan T]

I hate to get all meta on us, but I feel like we've reached a point where people are intentionally going with typical wolf moves and then claiming "why would I obviously do wolfy thing X"? I think we all agree that Alan knew what was going on yesterday. At deadline he could have switched his vote if he truly was trying to keep things close, but he didn't. If he knew CR was a wolf he should have made sure, however it looked, that he was on the right side of that event.

To be fair, the reason I removed you and Jonathan from my voting choices were because of such type of decisions.. I can't speak for everyone, but I know my main reason to not consider voting you thus far is because I don't see you making your day 1 move as a wolf.. This entire game is about choices like that.. If you as a wolf made that move on purpose to try to gain such trust, then you have done an excellent job ... I just don't think at a point when we have no more seer that we can take the chance on chasing wild goose hunts like that.. all we can do is go off of what we think a wolf would do.

You and I might have completely different thoughts about what a wolf would do, but both of us are basing our decisions on that.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

It doesn't matter now, but

VOTE ST.CRONIN

[Chief Rum]

Anyone seen ntn?

I can run the deadline, but since it was supposed to be ntn, I didn't want to unnecessarily step on his toes.

I will give him a few minutes, and if I don't see him, I will end the day.

[Alan T]

I saw ntn on about 30-45 min before the deadline, but haven't seen him since.

[ntndeacon]

Sorry bout that folks. Let me catch up and iwill end the day.

[ntndeacon]

I have the following vote.
st. cronin(4)-AlanT,SnDvLs,Pass,Jonathan
Alan (1)-Barkeep
SnDvLs (1)- st. cronin

As the shrinking number of people remaining in the house discussed the loss of the empath, and what his mysterious words meant. Furtive glances were headed in st cronin's direction on an increasing basis. Finally Someone yelled, "It's that darned st. cronin that is the cause of these deaths." And Using Lathum's old camera equipment they bashed his head into jam. They waited. and they waited. No change.

st. cronin was a Cast Member

[ntndeacon]

As the night breaks, and each of you remember the night of terror that has just ended, you notice that everyone has returned alive for the first time in a while. Maybe the spirits have left.

Day 5 has started

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Great. A conversion?

[Alan T]

Well.. no bodyguard to block, so no night kill only means either the last wolf forgot to submit a night order or a conversion... Since the former really isn't likely, I have to guess its the latter.

My usual stance with conversions is that it really is a bad move to suddenly try to figure out who was converted and start going after the most trusted members. I usually think the best play here is to try to narrow down whom the original wolf was from your previous trust list and once you find him hopefully you have gained new clues to figure out whom the convert was..


Also Ntn, what is the gameplay schedule over the weekend? We sitll playing, or waiting till monday?

[Alan T]

Looks like I am the only one around tonight.. so not much to discuss...

I'm sticking with my original thoughts..

Vote Sndvls

I think its pretty safe to assume Passacaglia and Barkeep were good (prior conversion).. That leaves me Jonathan and Sndvls to decide between. I still don't see Jonathan making the move he did as a wolf, so going to side with voting Sndvls today.

There seems to likely have been a conversion, and we'll have to worry about that after we find the first wolf I think..

One other concern now is that there are 5 of us, 3 villagers and 2 wolves.. this means today is a very important vote for us to get right.. if we lynch a villager I think its over for us.

[Passacaglia]

Man, if there's been a conversion, we're toast.

[Passacaglia]

Anyway, I'm looking at SD as the original wolf, and BK as the convert. I think you're right, Alan, that the convert is harder to figure, since he's been acting good (and less wolfish) the whole time up until now. But I figure BK is the most likely convert choice, since I think he's been cleared by ntn.

[SnDvls]

well it seems to me we got played and played pretty well by someone...my guess is the third guy Pass was throwing out there.

I won't be on much tomorrow because of the ASU Football kickoff lunch so I'll do this now.

Vote Alan T

it's pretty clear there is only one wolf left and if he killed someone tonight he would pretty much out himself so the smart play would be to do a no kill and keep everyone thinking...smart play wolf, but your time is running out.

[Passacaglia]

well it seems to me we got played and played pretty well by someone...my guess is the third guy Pass was throwing out there.

I won't be on much tomorrow because of the ASU Football kickoff lunch so I'll do this now.

Vote Alan T

it's pretty clear there is only one wolf left and if he killed someone tonight he would pretty much out himself so the smart play would be to do a no kill and keep everyone thinking...smart play wolf, but your time is running out.

SD, I'm not sure I understand. I don't see why not killing would have outed him. Does that thinking only apply if Alan is the wolf? If so, why? Will he decide not to kill tomorrow night, too? I don't see how not killing makes any sense.

[Passacaglia]

Sorry, I meant to say I don't see why killing would have outed him.

[ntndeacon]

We have a deadline on Friday and Monday at 10 eastern. I know I am gonna be busy during Saturday. FOOTBALL!!!!! so that is the plan

[SnDvls]

there is only one wolf left...everyone pretty much has you and/or BK cleared and JE seemes to be trusted or very under the radar...that leaves Alan and I...I know I'm not the wolf so the wolf would choose to kill whom of you, BK or JE since I seemed to have heat/votes on me?

I guess in my book it's pretty clear if any of those three were killed...now it still leaves doubt about who is/isn't a wolf and we villagers continue to pick eachother off.

[Passacaglia]

That sounds good. I'm leaving tomorrow morning, and not coming back until Monday evening. I'll have wireless at the hotel, but I'll probably only be able to check in during the evenings and mornings.

[Passacaglia]

there is only one wolf left...everyone pretty much has you and/or BK cleared and JE seemes to be trusted or very under the radar...that leaves Alan and I...I know I'm not the wolf so the wolf would choose to kill whom of you, BK or JE since I seemed to have heat/votes on me?

I guess in my book it's pretty clear if any of those three were killed...now it still leaves doubt about who is/isn't a wolf and we villagers continue to pick eachother off.

So let me ask you this -- if you were the wolf, what would you do?

[SnDvls]

SD, I'm not sure I understand. I don't see why not killing would have outed him. Does that thinking only apply if Alan is the wolf? If so, why? Will he decide not to kill tomorrow night, too? I don't see how not killing makes any sense.

1) Yes
2) probally, there appears to be no heat/link on him now

I guess it just gives him one more day to try and eliminate the 1:1 ending tiebreaker that gives the villagers the win...whatever that role is...I can't remember it off the top of my head.

[SnDvls]

So let me ask you this -- if you were the wolf, what would you do?

I would have killed you as I believe you are cleared and pushed that BK wasn't scanned by NTN as his statement seems to alude he's a bad choice, but not totally clear him...leaves some doubt

[Passacaglia]

I would have killed you as I believe you are cleared and pushed that BK wasn't scanned by NTN as his statement seems to alude he's a bad choice, but not totally clear him...leaves some doubt

So why wouldn't Alan have done that?

[SnDvls]

So why wouldn't Alan have done that?

he's pretty much said he feels I"m the bad guy so I"m not sure why...when it turns out I'm good he really won't have anywhere to turn...UNLESS there are 2 wolves left then they are playing for the 2-2 split and hoping to eliminate the tie breaker cast member role.

Going into today/tonight I did feel there were 2 wolves left...now I'm leaning towards there being only one now.

[SnDvls]

basically if there are 2 wolves left I guess their thinking would be lets get the tie breaker villager role to out themself and try and finish this off that way and not do a night kill tonight.(last night)

[SnDvls]

NTN or CRIM what are the victory conditions for the wolves? it doesn't say in the rules, but inferes they need an even ratio but if it's 1-1 the "Host" can't be the last villager.

I guess I'm now leaning towards there beign 2 wolves now...they hope I'm lynched today so it's 2-2 and then they could possibly win...need some clarification

[Chief Rum]

We have a deadline on Friday and Monday at 10 eastern. I know I am gonna be busy during Saturday. FOOTBALL!!!!! so that is the plan

If ntn wants to run it with no days passing over the weekend, that is his prerogative, as he is running the game right now. That said, path made a suggestion via PM to both of us that suggests me that he intended there to be a Sunday deadline (when he is scheduled to return).

I also personally think allowing a game to go a full three days, especially nearer the end might sap some of the game's momentum. I would recommend a Sunday deadline, but I understand if that doesn't work for ntn on a holiday weekend. I will likely be able to run a Sunday night deadline if needed (although my guess is path will be back).

Anyway, something to think about, ntn.

[Chief Rum]

NTN or CRIM what are the victory conditions for the wolves? it doesn't say in the rules, but inferes they need an even ratio but if it's 1-1 the "Host" can't be the last villager.

I guess I'm now leaning towards there beign 2 wolves now...they hope I'm lynched today so it's 2-2 and then they could possibly win...need some clarification

The rules don't state this, nor did our instructions (at least not the ones I received). And as a former wolf, I can also say there was nothing in the original PM about this.

But I would surmise from conventional WW logic and also the presence of the Host in the game, which seems to be directly related to this rule, that path did intend for the WW victory condition to be the normal condition of getting down to even numbers with the villagers. I am sure if we set that in stone now, path would accept that.

[Alan T]

1) Yes
2) probally, there appears to be no heat/link on him now

I guess it just gives him one more day to try and eliminate the 1:1 ending tiebreaker that gives the villagers the win...whatever that role is...I can't remember it off the top of my head.


I will give you a hint.. we discussed it at length yesterday.. the 1:1 ending tiebreaker is named the Host, and that would be me.

I really had a rough time debating whether or not to reveal it yesterday, and was planning on doing so if I felt the heat was strong enough to get lynched. I felt yesterday that our best chance to win would be for me to survive both the day and the night without being lynched or having wolf attention. I tried to keep that delicate balance of getting heat from villagers without too much heat to be lynched.. I also tried to keep the wolves off of my back so I wouldn't get night killed.

I did not however count on a conversion. I still think that there was a conversion last night, that its now 3-2 villagers and a wrong lynch here is the end of the game for us. I am going to be pretty busy most of the day today (starting at a 7:50am appointment with my wife's pulminoloigst) and didn't want to risk enough momentum on me and people not being around by the middle of the day when I get back due to it being friday.

Sndvls already has a vote on me (No big suprise), and I figure Barkeep will vote for me yet again (regardless if he is converted or not) and with Pass leaving for the day soon, if he isn't the convert I desperately need him to have his vote not on me before he goes..

I likely will be the night kill tonight, but that matters less than us killing a wolf today to make it 3-1, and it will give the 2 villagers left tommorrow a 50-50 chance on guessing which other player is the wolf..

I think Sndvls is blowing smoke about there having been no night kill last night, I can't fathom at this point in the game any reason why anyone would have not done a kill in this scenerio. If he isn't the wolf, and Jonathan was, why wouldn't Jonathan have killed Passacaglia or Barkeep? Sorry.. I think he is lying to us to try to mislead us.. it seems pretty likely there was a conversion last night.

I am keeping my vote on Sndvls, and I hope you all join me.

[Barkeep49]

I am going to suggest that the wolf simply did not submit their action. I know this will likely set off some alarm bells for people, but given the nature of the games, and the PMs that were revealed, I just don't see conversion as a possibility.

Can someone remind me what play JE made that would garner him trust?

[SnDvls]

okay if Alan is the host as he claims then unvote AlanT.

If there is only 1 wolf left then I believe it's JE so Vote JE if there are 2 wolves left then I still believe JE is one of them.

with 5 people left and 2 of them wolves this is how I see them trying to win.
it's 3-2 now they knew yesterday that St. C & I were a villager/villager matchup so they win either way and when one of us turned up good the vote would probally automatically switch to the other player thus allowing them to get to the 2-2 tie and basically the win even with the host left they are assured a win as they have a night kill making it 2-1 wolves and a win.

now....if there is only 1 wolf left it is now 4-1 and they need to lay low...passing a night kill puts doubt out there about a conversion...which I don't believe is in this game and there is nothing in the rules to even get close to inferring or assuming it either. So again they knew it was villager/villager and made the same assumptions hoping to end today at 3-1 and then get a night kill going 2-1 with the host at some point today/tonight/tomorrow outting himself as Alan just did. This would leave a Pass/BK/JE showdown for the victory.

Anyhow those are my thought from the night as I layed in bed last night and the lightbulb went off in my head.

[SnDvls]

I will give you a hint.. we discussed it at length yesterday.. the 1:1 ending tiebreaker is named the Host, and that would be me.

I really had a rough time debating whether or not to reveal it yesterday, and was planning on doing so if I felt the heat was strong enough to get lynched. I felt yesterday that our best chance to win would be for me to survive both the day and the night without being lynched or having wolf attention. I tried to keep that delicate balance of getting heat from villagers without too much heat to be lynched.. I also tried to keep the wolves off of my back so I wouldn't get night killed.

I did not however count on a conversion. I still think that there was a conversion last night, that its now 3-2 villagers and a wrong lynch here is the end of the game for us. I am going to be pretty busy most of the day today (starting at a 7:50am appointment with my wife's pulminoloigst) and didn't want to risk enough momentum on me and people not being around by the middle of the day when I get back due to it being friday.

Sndvls already has a vote on me (No big suprise), and I figure Barkeep will vote for me yet again (regardless if he is converted or not) and with Pass leaving for the day soon, if he isn't the convert I desperately need him to have his vote not on me before he goes..

I likely will be the night kill tonight, but that matters less than us killing a wolf today to make it 3-1, and it will give the 2 villagers left tommorrow a 50-50 chance on guessing which other player is the wolf..

I think Sndvls is blowing smoke about there having been no night kill last night, I can't fathom at this point in the game any reason why anyone would have not done a kill in this scenerio. If he isn't the wolf, and Jonathan was, why wouldn't Jonathan have killed Passacaglia or Barkeep? Sorry.. I think he is lying to us to try to mislead us.. it seems pretty likely there was a conversion last night.

I am keeping my vote on Sndvls, and I hope you all join me.

you did see where I said I wouldn't do a no night kill right? that's not a mistake I would make...if I was a wolf there would have been a kill last night.

[Passacaglia]

you did see where I said I wouldn't do a no night kill right? that's not a mistake I would make...if I was a wolf there would have been a kill last night.

SD, I'm still not sure what your "intentional no-kill" philosophy is here. So you wouldn't do a night kill, Alan would, JE would? I don't get what the motivation is here. I'd think that, if any of us were the wolf, we'd be perfectly set killing anyone but you -- I figure that you were the only one who could bank on staying alive last night, since you seemed like a popular lynch choice today.

BK, you could be right about the "unintentional no-kill" theory. I mean, it's possible. And it'd be really nice if we were 4-1. But if we're wrong, and there was a conversion, and we're 3-2, then one mistake and we're done. I really think we need to consider who is likely to be converted, and who is likely to have done the conversion (that point might be moot -- I guess it could be that anyone would do the conversion, given the chance).

[Passacaglia]

I am going to suggest that the wolf simply did not submit their action. I know this will likely set off some alarm bells for people, but given the nature of the games, and the PMs that were revealed, I just don't see conversion as a possibility.

Can someone remind me what play JE made that would garner him trust?

The more I think about this post, the more it makes me think BK was converted.

As for JE, I think everyone is falling in line with Alan's thinking that he wouldn't have caused such a big ruckus the day CR got lynched if he were a wolf. Not much to go on, for sure.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I agree with Barkeep in that I'm not sure that a conversion is possible from looking at the roles path listed for us. Of course, it's possible that path left that part out of the message that he showed us, but I agree with Alan that it's a mistake for us to worry about a conversion right now. We should focus on the one wolf we know is around before we really start to worry about a conversion target.

VOTE SNDVLS

[Passacaglia]

Okay, I'm packing up the computer. Not sure if I'll be back after deadline. I think we look at SD today, then probably BK tomorrow.

VOTE SNDVLS

[Alan T]

Well I do have a hard time believing that the wolf would not put in some order for night kill, and I still don't fathom any scenerio where no night kill last night is the good move. No matter which was a wolf, Jonathan or Sndvls, you at least try to kill Pass or Barkeep last night. Neither had any suspicion and doubtful they would have had any today.

Playing devil's advocate.. one of the most damaging things about conversion is that it throws the trust lists out the window. So the possibility of a conversion still could have that effect.. Regardless of whether or not there was a conversion, we know there is at least one wolf left.

I dont think I am necessarily open to changing my vote right now away from Sndvls.. I think in both Barkeep and Jonathan's case their behavior would make it really difficult for me to believe they were a wolf.. Today I believe hinges on getting the vote right.. so I'll listen to other arguements for someone else to be voted, but its going to take alot to unconvince me here.

[SnDvls]

vote nightfall

this game is over the wolves have won if I'm the lynch vote...oh well we started off bad and will end the same way.

[Barkeep49]

I still don't understand why no one has voted for JE or explained their trust in him. So I'm going to vote for JE.

Vote JE

[Alan T]

I still don't understand why no one has voted for JE or explained their trust in him. So I'm going to vote for JE.

Vote JE

I feel like I am speaking into a vaccum... in my mind, my trust for JE is pretty much the same as my trust for you. I feel that you are a villager due to making a move that I don't think a wolf would have done at that spot.

Of course you've been after me all game for reasons I can't fathom either so..... :)

[Barkeep49]

I've left you alone today as I believe your reveal as host.

[ntndeacon]

SnDvls (3)- AlanT, Jonathan,Pass
JE (2)-SnDvLs, Barkeep

Once again we move to lynch another member of this motly band remaining in the house. SnDvLs fears that the end is nigh for all, as Alan proclaims that all is well, with him as host. A minute passes....Two. No change.

Cackling goes up from Alan and Pass as Alan rips Jonathan's head off and sucks out his brains as a horrified Barkeep looks on. Pass then envelops the lone Barkeep in his spirit form draining all of Barkeeps life from him. Darkness is again victorious!

[Alan T]

Thanks for the game Path, and thanks for volunteering to fill in Ntn/Chief..

Sorry I couldn't put more attention into this game, just been alot going on for me RL lately, I enjoyed the time played though.

I though Passacaglia played an amazing game, much better than the last time he was a wolf.

[Telle]

Ok, so how did Alan get away with saying he was the host?? What happened to the real host?

[Telle]

Oh wait.. Alan was the conversion! Right?!

[Alan T]

Oh wait.. Alan was the conversion! Right?!

Yeah.. I was converted last night... go figure.. I had no idea Pass was the wolf though.. He had me completely baffled.

[Passacaglia]

Thanks! I think I had help, though. CR's vote on me probably helped. I think I got lucky in seeing ntn's comment and jumping on that bandwagon early, but not too early (I felt bad about that almost immediately -- like I was throwing CR under the bus before getting a chance to talk with him and figure it out, but as the day went on, it sounded like everyone else thought ntn's post was a seer reveal as well).

Plus, an innocuous comment by ntn helped me out immensely, with no doing on my part. I thought it was pretty obvious that BK was scanned -- he mentioned BK in the same post as CR! Anyway, in a way that hurt my long-term plan, which was to make a conversion, and try to frame BK as the convert. However, I didn't realize that the conversion put as at 3-2, and the game was almost won.

[Crim]

That's pretty funny... I tought Alan was a wolf since BEFORE he got converted, and I never suspected Pass at all... in fact I was starting to suspect BK toward the end.

Nicely played, Passacaglia!

[Barkeep49]

I agree Pass played well. I had him pegged as the conversion not as the original wolf. What a game.

[Passacaglia]

I agree Pass played well. I had him pegged as the conversion not as the original wolf. What a game.

I probably shouldn't have pressed you for the conversion. That was my plan way back when, late in the day that ntn revealed as the seer. In fact, I thought about converting him, which seemed like a delicious idea, but CR advised me well, that a no-kill night but make everyone suspect that he was the convert. I thought about converting Barkeep as well, but I figured I had to do something about ntn. I probably shouldn't have even mentioned that I thought you might be the convert, since it probably just made you think more and more that I was the convert. But at that point, I was just pushing trying to keep things set for the SD vote.

[path12]

Back. Thanks ntn & Chief for your help and sorry for the unclear parts in the rules to everybody (you decided them all exactly as intended). Should have had more restrictions on the conversion, that made it too overbalanced once the bodyguard was gone.

[Barkeep49]

Actually path I think the game was pretty balanced and could with the exact same rules and players and have a different out come the next time.

[Alan T]

I agree that the game didn't feel too unbalanced.. I think the biggest error in the game was the complete trust of Passacaglia (which I was guilty of myself), due to misinterpreting Ntn's statements post-mortem. Thats not a game balance issue, that is just a misplay on the villager's fault.

[Barkeep49]

The whole ntn thing was interesting to me since I had read pretty clearly that he'd cleared Pass and hadn't realized I might be cleared until everyone started posting about it the following day.

[Passacaglia]

The whole ntn thing was interesting to me since I had read pretty clearly that he'd cleared Pass and hadn't realized I might be cleared until everyone started posting about it the following day.

That seems strange. I thought it was pretty obvious from where I was sitting -- then again, I was pretty sure I had not been scanned. I mean, he mentioned BK in the same post as he outed CR. If you saw a seer reveal in that post, why wouldn't you see that he cleared BK in that same post?

[Passacaglia]

By the way, who did Lathum guard that first night? With maybe 15 minutes left to deadline, he posted something that made it seem like he was going to guard himself, so I thought he was actually going to guard someone else. Were we clever, or did we just get lucky?

[Lathum]

By the way, who did Lathum guard that first night? With maybe 15 minutes left to deadline, he posted something that made it seem like he was going to guard himself, so I thought he was actually going to guard someone else. Were we clever, or did we just get lucky?

I guarded Cronin. I was gonna switch to myself but figured it was a 50/50 shot anyway I would be killed so I figured I would take the risk.