Werewolf LX - Dog Soldiers (Game over, wolves win)

[Passacaglia]

Now today, you've put a vote for Purdue out there right away after arguing about not voting for him yesterday.

I think I've explained that. The best I have to go on is that BK was trying to save PB. I don't have much reason to go after anyone else.

[Passacaglia]

My problem with this analysis is that I would have expected Purdue to be scanned yesterday, and thus either cleared or not. The fact that nobody has come forward means one of three things:

Actually, I wouldn't have expected PB to be scanned yesterday. I think that it's somewhat irrelevant who got scanned yesterday - if I were a seer, I'd think of all the data as not very useful until I have a good idea if I'm real or fake. So even if I did scan PB, I wouldn't come out with it, because I'd be putting a target on my head, and the info wouldn't necessarily mean anything.

[Passacaglia]

1) Purdue is not a wolf. In which Pass' position of being against a vote for him yesterday and for a vote for him today is inconsistent.

2) Purdue is a wolf, and was saved by Barkeep, Pass or jeheinz in some combination. In which case Pass' early vote for him today makes sense in a distancing sort of way, with plenty of time to change it if Brad is actually in danger.

3) The seer scanned somebody else. This makes sense if you realize that the final vote count originally showed Purdue and I tied -- since I had a later first vote on me, the seer might have thought I would have gotten through the tiebreaker and scanned me. (the fact PB's vote wasn't showing on me wasn't pointed out until after deadline). Or the seer might have been unsure of how the tiebreaker worked and went in another direction. I don't know.

1. I fully take blame for being inconsistent -- if I know who all the wolves were on Day 1, this would be a pretty boring game!
2. If PB is a wolf, you should vote for him, rather than chasing this theory.
3. I do believe the seer scanned someone else.

[Passacaglia]

Well, that was fun! I'm heading home -- maybe there will be more to hash out when I get back.

[Abe Sargent]

Right. Do you really think two wolves voted for the same guy to save PB within minutes of each other?

In a large game? Nope. In a smaller game where one or two lynches going right change everything, I don;t know. I've never been a wolf in a smaller game, only in larger ones. There, I try to lay low, which is easier to do in a large game. Here, maybe you do the opposite. Make yourself as visible as possible so that people go elsewhere.

Remember, BK was only exposed because of the good luck of path being the duke and choosing the right target, otherwise, if it was a plan, it would have worked.

Now, I'm not saying that's what actually happened, but you have to admit, it isn;t as crazy as you make it sound.

[Abe Sargent]

I'll respond to this first. The point is that it's a gutsy move for the three wolves to get all associated with each other like that. Generally, when a theory leads to all the wolves being spotted easily, it's probably wrong. For example, when you came out and said that Anxiety was good when he was Lucifer, cronin and I knew you were lying, but figured that something else was going on, rather than assuming you were evil.

How did you know he was lying if cronin couldn't tell you I was Lucifer?

[Abe Sargent]

For now, several people mark me as a bit snaky, with PB and Pass at the top, so I am following the lead of the person who is mostly cleared to my thinking - path.

Vote Pass

[Abe Sargent]

Sucks that I just missed him though, but it sounds like he's coming back later.

[path12]

Actually, I wouldn't have expected PB to be scanned yesterday. I think that it's somewhat irrelevant who got scanned yesterday - if I were a seer, I'd think of all the data as not very useful until I have a good idea if I'm real or fake. So even if I did scan PB, I wouldn't come out with it, because I'd be putting a target on my head, and the info wouldn't necessarily mean anything.

You would certainly come out with it if he turned up wolf. At worst you find out that you're not the real seer, and in doing so let's the other seer know which they are.

[path12]

1. I fully take blame for being inconsistent -- if I know who all the wolves were on Day 1, this would be a pretty boring game!
2. If PB is a wolf, you should vote for him, rather than chasing this theory.
3. I do believe the seer scanned someone else.

If you come up bad, I think PB becomes tomorrow's vote. If you come up good, then that is up in the air and I would definitely think we'd get a scan on him tonight.

I'm as wrong at times with my analysis as everyone else who plays this game, but I think that in this case we have the best chance to learn something whether you come up good or bad (which is unusual for me day 2).

[Schmidty]

Well, I have no reason to doubt path. Lead the way Moses!!!


Vote Pass

[Passacaglia]

Time for the reveal, then. I'm one of the seers. Don't know which one.

[path12]

Time for the reveal, then. I'm one of the seers. Don't know which one.

Who was your view yesterday?

[jeheinz72]

Who was your view yesterday?

Ditto this. I split in 25 minutes, unlikely to come back, so for me to move my vote, it's kinda important.

[Passacaglia]

Remember, BK was only exposed because of the good luck of path being the duke and choosing the right target, otherwise, if it was a plan, it would have worked.


This is why I've been fingering PB -- I feel like BK felt safe trying to save PB because he wasn't under attack. It seems that a lot of the argument for voting for me rests on the premise that BK was trying to save PB -- possibly along with me. Why not go with the simpler part of the premise, instead of the more convoluted part?

[Passacaglia]

I chose jeheinz, since new players scare me. He came up human.

[jeheinz72]

I chose jeheinz, since new players scare me. He came up human.

Boo!

Haha, seriously though, since I know I'm human, I'll take my chances and do this while I brainstorm...

Unvote Passacaglia

[Passacaglia]

You would certainly come out with it if he turned up wolf. At worst you find out that you're not the real seer, and in doing so let's the other seer know which they are.

I don't think I would -- if jeheinz turned up a wolf, I wouldn't have come out with it.

[Passacaglia]

Boo!

Haha, seriously though, since I know I'm human, I'll take my chances and do this while I brainstorm...

Unvote Passacaglia

Remember, though, I could be the fake seer. So you're not necessarily cleared in my book.

[path12]

I don't think I would -- if jeheinz turned up a wolf, I wouldn't have come out with it.

Why on earth not? If right, we're down to one wolf. If wrong, you know you're not the right seer and the other one could be certain of their views.

[jeheinz72]

Remember, though, I could be the fake seer. So you're not necessarily cleared in my book.

Oh I know, but your scan was correct. The fact it was correct at least makes me not want to see you immediately lynched. I may not be cleared, but you've at least got a 50/50 shot at being someone very important. There's really only a few scenarios

- You're lying and you're a wolf. I'd entertain this if you live through the night somehow and then don't scan a wolf. That's the only case to revisit you

- You're the fake seer. Then let's at least make them night kill you

- You're the real seer. Then we're a touch screwed here.

In none of those though does it make sense to lynch you today.

[Schmidty]

Time for the reveal, then. I'm one of the seers. Don't know which one.

Important question - Are we positive that there are more than two?

[jeheinz72]

Why on earth not? If right, we're down to one wolf. If wrong, you know you're not the right seer and the other one could be certain of their views.

I'd agree with this logic. I think of the two people scanning, the first one to get a positive should reveal. Then it's only these cases

Real Seer, Real Result - YAY

Fake Seer, Fake Result - BOO. But we lost someone of no real value and the Real Seer knows they are for real

Fake Seer, Real Result - YAY. The ruleset says "random" answer. Not necessarily always incorrect. I'd imagine there is a sliver of hope that a Wolf could get scanned and a Wolf answer could be returned.

[path12]

Dola, I'm not sure if I buy the reveal or not. Cons:

1) Seer is the obvious role to fake in this game, because nobody is going to come out to challenge you, unless by some freak coincidence the real seer found the fake one last turn.

2) jeheinz wasn't in the conversation much at all yesterday, so it seems a strange choice to me when there were much better candidates to scan IMO.

Pro:

1, 1A and 2) I don't want to lynch a seer.

Hmmm.

[Passacaglia]

Why on earth not? If right, we're down to one wolf. If wrong, you know you're not the right seer and the other one could be certain of their views.

That's a good point. Especially since if I were the fake seer, it's not very likely that I would mistakenly scan someone as a wolf.

[jeheinz72]

Important question - Are we positive that there are more than two?

I think the logic on this was that there were 3 last game, so the hunch is there are 3 this game.

[path12]

Important question - Are we positive that there are more than two?

We know that there is one that gets an accurate view and one that gets a randomly right or wrong view. In addition, the wolf lover can also view.

[Passacaglia]

Real Seer, Real Result - YAY



Actually, at this point, since the wolves will probably kill me tonight, I hope I'm the fake seer. At this point, it's just about making the wolves kill me, instead of you guys.

[path12]

I'd agree with this logic. I think of the two people scanning, the first one to get a positive should reveal. Then it's only these cases

Real Seer, Real Result - YAY

Fake Seer, Fake Result - BOO. But we lost someone of no real value and the Real Seer knows they are for real

Fake Seer, Real Result - YAY. The ruleset says "random" answer. Not necessarily always incorrect. I'd imagine there is a sliver of hope that a Wolf could get scanned and a Wolf answer could be returned.

I can think of one more result: Fake Seer, Fake Result, Real Role gets lynched. Followed closely no doubt by the fake seer.

[Passacaglia]

I think the logic on this was that there were 3 last game, so the hunch is there are 3 this game.

I think he's talking about seers, not wolves. I *think* we're sure.

[jeheinz72]

I think he's talking about seers, not wolves. I *think* we're sure.

Ah gotcha. Yeah, I think I'm about 99% positive that there are only 2 good-sided Seer's

[jeheinz72]

Actually, at this point, since the wolves will probably kill me tonight, I hope I'm the fake seer. At this point, it's just about making the wolves kill me, instead of you guys.

Exactly. Frankly, real or not, there is zero point in us lynching you today. If we want to rehash a lie/truth/fake seer/real seer we might as well do that tomorrow. We'll have an excellent read on your wolfiness after the night kill. If you're alive and don't hit a wolf, I'll be more than suspicious. But for today, there is no point in doing that.

[Abe Sargent]

Time for the reveal, then. I'm one of the seers. Don't know which one.

This is interesting to me. Hold on

Unvote Pass

Okay, let's chat. I've moved my vote off for now.

In this game, would a wolf false reveal as a seer? I'm just wondering. It'd be a brillant move. Peg a wolf as a "seer", have us vote for him, and then each of the two seers think they are the bad one, and neither reveals.

You didn;t do that though. You only "cleared" someone, not pegged someone. That makes me more inclined to beleive you.

[Schmidty]

We know that there is one that gets an accurate view and one that gets a randomly right or wrong view. In addition, the wolf lover can also view.

Will st. cronin try to trick us in our PM by not telling the person that he is the real seer or the random seer or whatever? That's an important question.

[jeheinz72]

I can think of one more result: Fake Seer, Fake Result, Real Role gets lynched. Followed closely no doubt by the fake seer.

True, but isn't that really in play at all times? I mean there is one good role left (that isn't used, the Seer). Crossing you off as the duke, there are 9 people we could lynch.

It's 1 in 9 we lynch the seer on accident. 11.1%. If we take Pass out and clear him as a lynch candidate for today at least, it's 1 in 8 now, or 12.5%. So we've only really increased our chances of lynching the Seer today by 1.4%.

[path12]

It's not worth the risk. I'll go the other direction.

UNVOTE PASSACAGLIA
VOTE PURDUEBRAD

[jeheinz72]

Will st. cronin try to trick us in our PM by not telling the person that he is the real seer or the random seer or whatever? That's an important question.

I'd guess both "Seer's" got the exact same PM, but that one of them hasn't seen his test scores from Medic training. ;)

[path12]

Will st. cronin try to trick us in our PM by not telling the person that he is the real seer or the random seer or whatever? That's an important question.

It's my understanding that each will just be told they are a seer. I'll try to find a clarification in the rules.

[Passacaglia]

Will st. cronin try to trick us in our PM by not telling the person that he is the real seer or the random seer or whatever? That's an important question.

I believe so. There were some things in the PM that made it seem like I was real, and some that made it seem like I was fake. I think if he told someone they were the fake seer, then they would know it was pointless -- which would take away the whole mechanic.

[Schmidty]

It's my understanding that each will just be told they are a seer. I'll try to find a clarification in the rules.

Ok, I appreciate it. I'm off to the store for a while and will check in before dinner.

[path12]

Roles
1. Medic (can discover if a player is wolf or human)
2. Medic who finished last in his class (thinks he's the seer, but gets a random result)3. Bodyguard
4. Duke
5. Wolf enthusiast (wins with the wolves, but counts as a villager, is able to scan players to discover wolf/human, and also can duke once per game).

There we go.

[jeheinz72]

Well, I'm likely out until morning. I can't see anyone else worth putting a vote on so I might as well...
Vote PurdueBrad

My hunch is he's the Wolf Lover, so I fully expect someone else to die.

[Schmidty]

I believe so. There were some things in the PM that made it seem like I was real, and some that made it seem like I was fake. I think if he told someone they were the fake seer, then they would know it was pointless -- which would take away the whole mechanic.

Then doesn't that make the role useless virtually?

[Passacaglia]

I believe so. There were some things in the PM that made it seem like I was real, and some that made it seem like I was fake. I think if he told someone they were the fake seer, then they would know it was pointless -- which would take away the whole mechanic.

I forgot to mention that when it came down to it, all that stuff was probably for flavor, anyway, and he wasn't trying to drop any hints.

[Passacaglia]

Then doesn't that make the role useless virtually?

It's only useless if they KNOW that they're the fake seer. If they don't know, then both think they might be the real seer. The good news is that the other seer will know which one they are tomorrow.

[Schmidty]

It's only useless if they KNOW that they're the fake seer. If they don't know, then both think they might be the real seer. The good news is that the other seer will know which one they are tomorrow.

Ok, I'll trust you today.

Unvote Pass

[jeheinz72]

It's only useless if they KNOW that they're the fake seer. If they don't know, then both think they might be the real seer. The good news is that the other seer will know which one they are tomorrow.

Do we know though if upon death the Fake is revealed as the Fake? I think the only way the Seer's really will know who is who is when we lynch incorrectly one of their "recommendations".

[Schmidty]

I don't really know where to go now. I'll think more about it when I get back.

[path12]

The only other vote that comes to mind would be voting je in order to see whether Pass is accurate or not. But since he's likely dead after tonight I don't know if that's 100% enough for the other seer to determine which he is.

[st.cronin]

I'd guess both "Seer's" got the exact same PM, but that one of them hasn't seen his test scores from Medic training. ;)

This is correct.

[jeheinz72]

The only other vote that comes to mind would be voting je in order to see whether Pass is accurate or not. But since he's likely dead after tonight I don't know if that's 100% enough for the other seer to determine which he is.

Plus the whole fact I'm human so you'd learn nothing. ;)

[Passacaglia]

Do we know though if upon death the Fake is revealed as the Fake? I think the only way the Seer's really will know who is who is when we lynch incorrectly one of their "recommendations".

I don't think we know. Cronin -- do we find this out on death?

[jeheinz72]

This is correct.

My guess is he forgot his password ala Marshall from How I Met Your Mother. Just sing!

[Passacaglia]

The only other vote that comes to mind would be voting je in order to see whether Pass is accurate or not. But since he's likely dead after tonight I don't know if that's 100% enough for the other seer to determine which he is.

I thought about this as well, but the other problem is that if je is human, then that still doesn't tell us if I'm the real seer or not.

[path12]

Do we know though if upon death the Fake is revealed as the Fake? I think the only way the Seer's really will know who is who is when we lynch incorrectly one of their "recommendations".

The last time I saw this mechanic it was not spelled out when a seer died. I know because I was the other one and really could have used that info (though as it turns out I was the fake then).

[jeheinz72]

The last time I saw this mechanic it was not spelled out when a seer died. I know because I was the other one and really could have used that info (though as it turns out I was the fake then).

Yeah, Neon's game (hey one I've actually played!). My guess is we won't know if the Fake is a Fake.

Anyhow, I gotta jet. Slim slim chance I'll be back on, but not likely. I'd throw another name out there but let's just say I'm not doing too well at that (I've managed to name both the Duke and best-case the Fake Seer).

So yeah, I'm sticking with PB for tonight. At least we can "clear" that whole mess up for now.

[path12]

I thought about this as well, but the other problem is that if je is human, then that still doesn't tell us if I'm the real seer or not.

Yeah, I don't know that I love the idea of going that way. At this point I'm open to suggestions.

[Abe Sargent]

Nowhere else to go but PB.

Vote Purduebrad

Still not completely sold on Pass, but he has a bye for now. Let's see what happens with PB. PB comes up good, my suspicion on Pass drops to the normal amount of suspicion I have on everyone. Because BK wasn;t saving PB.

PB comes up bad, then we have something else to look at.

[st.cronin]

From day 1 of the aborted start:

Do we learn if it was the medic of fake medic upon death?

A good question: The answer is no. All roles will be revealed upon death, but there will be no differentiation between the "seer" and the "fake seer."

[path12]

Wouldn't it suck if Brad was the other seer?

[jeheinz72]

Wouldn't it suck if Brad was the other seer?

Yeah it would, but would he really "invite" votes if he was? Or would he come out so misguided on Day One?

Granted, I've never been Seer, ever, but if/when I am, I'm going to at least make sure I live to make a scan!

Anyways, I'm Audi.

[Abe Sargent]

Good point jeheinz

[Passacaglia]

Yeah it would, but would he really "invite" votes if he was? Or would he come out so misguided on Day One?

Granted, I've never been Seer, ever, but if/when I am, I'm going to at least make sure I live to make a scan!

Anyways, I'm Audi.

I thought I was the only one who says "I'm Audi"!

[path12]

Well, I'm out. Appointment then dinner date with the wonderous yet grounded Ms. Path. Good luck to us.

[PurdueBrad]

vote jeheinz and doing so to hope prove that Pass is the real seer. I didn't catch the part where it said the scan would be random if he's not so this might be naive but I would assume he would scan opposite. So if Heinz is human, I would trust Pass.

Although now that I say this, I am wondering if the fake seers scans are random or always human. If I'm back from dinner, this may change although it isn't likely to change my ability to live through the night.

[Passacaglia]

The rules say it's a random result.

[st.cronin]

vote jeheinz and doing so to hope prove that Pass is the real seer. I didn't catch the part where it said the scan would be random if he's not so this might be naive but I would assume he would scan opposite. So if Heinz is human, I would trust Pass.

Although now that I say this, I am wondering if the fake seers scans are random or always human. If I'm back from dinner, this may change although it isn't likely to change my ability to live through the night.

Please don't vote this way, try to leave a line of space above and below your vote so its easy to find when skimming the thread.

[RendeR]

VOTE THOMKALL

[RendeR]

-L

[Passacaglia]

No explanation or anything?

[Thomkal]

Sorry I haven't been around to participate today guys.

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

Seems to be the smart place to vote given the seer revelations.

[Lorena]

Hey Thomkal http://www.epforums.org/images/smilies/hbdfix.gif

[Chief Rum]

Oh, and seeing my name every two seconds is making me feel vulnerable, Chief.

Not my fault you love the Lakers. :)

[Schmidty]

Not my fault you love the Lakers. :)

You are a twister of the truth. I should vote for you!!!!

Nah. I'll go with the hive-mind because I don't know what else to do, other than I know what not to do:

Vote PurdueBrad

[Abe Sargent]

Sorry I haven't been around to participate today guys.

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

Seems to be the smart place to vote given the seer revelations.

Was there another?

[Thomkal]

Hey Thomkal http://www.epforums.org/images/smilies/hbdfix.gif

Thanks DC!

[Schmidty]

Happy birthday!!!

[Schmidty]

Now don't ever vote for me.

[Thomkal]

Was there another?

None that I can see, hence my vote. :)

[Thomkal]

Now don't ever vote for me.

Heh, how about not voting for you in the next hour instead? :)

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, Barkeep was on path, and to my thinking, wolves tend to split their votes up. I doubt there was another wolf on path. And I don't think they would make an obvious run to "save" PB. My guess is he is a villager and the wolves laid low while we nattered away at each other.

I think at least one wolf had his vote on someone out of the debate, which is fairly common practice. And since his hit and run vote smells a little and he has been a lot less noisy than he usually is, I'm going on a hunch here.

VOTE RENDER

If he turns out a wolf, I also think Thomkal is the other wolf. It strikes me as a Render-ish sneaky play to vote the other wolf to garner trust later on if Thomkal gets caught.

[st.cronin]

PurdueBrad - 6 - Passacaglia (223), path12 (286), jeheinz72 (292), Anxiety (308), Thomkal (321), Schmidty (324)

jeheinz72 - 1 - PurdueBrad (315)

Thomkal - 1 - RendeR (318)

RendeR - 1 - Chief Rum (331)

No vote from ntndeacon that I find.

[Thomkal]

That's actually a good theory Chief Rum, but one hole in it is that I am a soldier, not a wolf.

[RendeR]

No explanation or anything?

None really needed.

Hey Thomkal http://www.epforums.org/images/smilies/hbdfix.gif

This was my initial reason.

Was there another?

This was my secondary reason

None that I can see, hence my vote. :)

See previous comment.

Hmm, Barkeep was on path, and to my thinking, wolves tend to split their votes up. I doubt there was another wolf on path. And I don't think they would make an obvious run to "save" PB. My guess is he is a villager and the wolves laid low while we nattered away at each other.

I think at least one wolf had his vote on someone out of the debate, which is fairly common practice. And since his hit and run vote smells a little and he has been a lot less noisy than he usually is, I'm going on a hunch here.

VOTE RENDER

If he turns out a wolf, I also think Thomkal is the other wolf. It strikes me as a Render-ish sneaky play to vote the other wolf to garner trust later on if Thomkal gets caught.


Honestly, I don't have the energy to be that sneaky CR. Its beena very long and trying few days. Between personal issues, cars breaking down, kids, and work. I'm lucky I have time to read this right onw, let alone the brainpower to comprehend it.

There is confusion regarding PB, I don't agree or disagree with any of the arguments at this point.

A Runaway vote tells us squat. So I offerred up a sacrificial Thom, so to speak.

You don't have to agree with me or vote with me if you don't want. I just want to incite a bit of thought on someone other than PB for right now.

[Thomkal]

I still don't know why Render voted for me, other than it's my birthday. :)

[Chief Rum]

Well, it's my birthday tomorrow. Will he vote for me?

[st.cronin]

deadline

[st.cronin]

Not a lot of people around, but this is what I have:

PurdueBrad - 6 - Passacaglia (223), path12 (286), jeheinz72 (292), Anxiety (308), Thomkal (321), Schmidty (324)

jeheinz72 - 1 - PurdueBrad (315)

Thomkal - 1 - RendeR (318)

RendeR - 1 - Chief Rum (331)

No vote from ntndeacon that I find.

Same as in the above post. You all have a few minutes to correct me if I have missed one.

[st.cronin]

PurdueBrad has been lynched.

He was a wolf! Nice job, villagers.

[st.cronin]

Pms going out.

[Abe Sargent]

Awesome!

In other news, what bad play by BK to connect himself with a wolf that way

[st.cronin]

Passacaglia has been killed by wolves! He was one of the medics - but which one?

Day 3 has begun, deadline Thursday 9:00pm Eastern Time.

[RendeR]

Crap, that means there is another one. I was hoping for a two wolf game ;)

[Abe Sargent]

Hmm. Sorry Pass. You just got the misfortune to get associated with two wolves. That put pressure on ya, and you had to reveal.

At least we know there is a chance we may have the real seer still out there.

[Abe Sargent]

Crap, that means there is another one. I was hoping for a two wolf game ;)

Fastest game of WW in that case ;)

[Abe Sargent]

Let's go back and reassess the Day One votes. This may be the most important Day One vote I've seen.

[Abe Sargent]

So, this is what I still have:

PurdueBrad - 3 - AlanT (44), ntndeacon (72), path12 (88)
path12 - 3 - jeheinz72 (74), Passacaglia (147), Barkeep49 (149), PurdueBrad (141)
Alan T - 2 - Schmidty (76), RendeR (90)
Schmidty - 1 - Anxiety (80)
Chief Rum - 1 - Thomkal (84)
Barkeep49 - 1 - Chief Rum (94)


You all have a few more seconds to correct me, then it becomes final.

Okay, here are the votes. What do we see here. Path had four people vaote for him. Three are dead, two were wolves.


There were still two AlanT votes. I can;t remember if Schmidty or RendeR came back after he revealed he was the bg. Can anyone check that?

jeheinz voted for path very early compared to the later moves. Is he a wolf who stayed?

There were three outling votes (Me, CR, and Thomkal). Did a wolf try to hide here?

Or maybe a wolf wanted a vote on PB from the beginning to get in the COT. I would not be surprised that BK, PB and the 3rd wolf discussed what to do and BK agreed to move to path rathern than have th e3rd move off PB.

Those votes are path, who is either a duke or a wal sympathizer, AlanT and ntndeacon.

Of those four scenarions, I have placed them in the order that I think they are most likely. I think the most likey scenario is that either the third wolf was alraedy on path (jeheinz) or on AlanT and chose not to move off just in case another vote or two fell that way. (Schmidty, RendeR)

Since I got flak for not including myself in my own analysis when I was Ares, I figured I'd do so here.

If we do really well today, we can get a rare three day sweep and end the game with one of the best villager wins ever!

[Alan T]

PurdueBrad has been lynched.

He was a wolf! Nice job, villagers.


PurdueBrad, I saved you a seat, come over and watch the rest of the game with me. No hard feelings! :)

[PurdueBrad]

PurdueBrad, I saved you a seat, come over and watch the rest of the game with me. No hard feelings! :)

Thanks Alan, I was desperately trying to save my wolf-ass on day one.

Go wolves!

[Chief Rum]

PurdueBrad has been lynched.

He was a wolf! Nice job, villagers.

Wow, we're getting tons of help here. The wolves made an odd move with PB getting himself in the Alan T tete-a-tete, and then BK stayed on path, which pointed the target more strongly at PB. Albeit, BK was almost certainly caught unawares by the duke move, but wow, what a turn!

[Schmidty]

So, are night 2 actions done?

[Abe Sargent]

So, are night 2 actions done?

I thought cronin ending the night was the end of the actions. Thread title says day 3

[st.cronin]

So, are night 2 actions done?

Yes.

[Schmidty]

Ok then.

[Passacaglia]

Hmm. Sorry Pass. You just got the misfortune to get associated with two wolves. That put pressure on ya, and you had to reveal.

At least we know there is a chance we may have the real seer still out there.

Hey, at least my deductive skillz were able to help you guys bag a wolf on Day 2. Nice job rounding the village against me, PB.

[path12]

Two for two. Let's get that last one, fellas!

[Chief Rum]

I hate to say it, but I will be out almost all day tomorrow. It's my birthday and a friend got me and my bro and family VIP tickets to the Kings-Ducks game. We're going straight after work, so no chance to check back in until late.

So I am voting now.

Despite his protestation of innocence, I am going with Thomkal. I feel that a wolf tossed on a late vote on PB when it was all but done. IMO, the best two candidates for that are the last two voters, Thomkal and Schmidty. And Schmidty has the excuse of generally not being around early (like me).

So I am going with Thomkal for now.

VOTE THOMKAL

[jeheinz72]

Wow nice! 2 for 2 baby! Sucks we might have lost a seer, but thems the breaks. Pass was painted into a bit of a corner.

As far as my Day One vote for path, it was just that, a Day One vote (because he killed me in RendeR's game when I was close to winning). Let's note that the 2 wolves we've offed voted well after I did and it's not like I had any idea of path's potential dukiness leading up to my vote.

I'd have to agree that Wolf #3 is somewhere in the "other" votes from Day One, not sure it's Thomkal or not, but I'd guess it's highly unlikely that the 3 wolves would all make their votes so visible on the first day

[ntndeacon]

I hate to say it, but I will be out almost all day tomorrow. It's my birthday and a friend got me and my bro and family VIP tickets to the Kings-Ducks game. We're going straight after work, so no chance to check back in until late.

So I am voting now.

Despite his protestation of innocence, I am going with Thomkal. I feel that a wolf tossed on a late vote on PB when it was all but done. IMO, the best two candidates for that are the last two voters, Thomkal and Schmidty. And Schmidty has the excuse of generally not being around early (like me).

So I am going with Thomkal for now.

VOTE THOMKAL


This could easily be right, but I do want to make the point that Anxiety's vote was only an hour and a half prior to Thomkal's vote. I think that is where I am going.

Vote Anxiety


(On another note I do apologize for not getting a vote in yesterday. I do believe Iwill be back briefly this afternoon to check but it wont be for long.)

[Thomkal]

Well I disagree with Chief Rum's theory, especially the part about voting for me since I'm a soldier, and I did not try to defend either of the two previous wolves Purdue Brad or Barkeep.

My theory is the wolf stayed away from voting for Purdue Brad yesterday because there are three at least semi-cleared people on PB-Pass (medic if he's the real one), Jeheinz (cleared by Pass), and Path (duke if he's the good one). Making it only a one in three chance of hiding amongst the rest of the PB voters.

So I think he stayed away all together, knowing people would think the wolf put a vote on PB in an attempt to hide. And hey look at that, Chief Rum didn't vote for PB.

vote Chief Rum

[RendeR]

Well I disagree with Chief Rum's theory, especially the part about voting for me since I'm a soldier, and I did not try to defend either of the two previous wolves Purdue Brad or Barkeep.

My theory is the wolf stayed away from voting for Purdue Brad yesterday because there are three at least semi-cleared people on PB-Pass (medic if he's the real one), Jeheinz (cleared by Pass), and Path (duke if he's the good one). Making it only a one in three chance of hiding amongst the rest of the PB voters.

So I think he stayed away all together, knowing people would think the wolf put a vote on PB in an attempt to hide. And hey look at that, Chief Rum didn't vote for PB.

vote Chief Rum


Good theory and all but the safest play for a wolf knowing he's going to be alone and vulnerable is to appear as much of a villager as possible. So he would, IMO, have stayed with the majority and not made any waves.

You seem to ignore in your theory as well, the fact that I and ntndeacon both voted away from PB as well.

Are we special? Is there some reason you don't suspect us but do suspect CR?

I voted for YOU yesterday, so if your theory holds any weight at all you should be voting for me, not CR, but CR is the guy you go after?

Your theory has holes the size of Montana.

VOTE THOMKAL

[Thomkal]

Good theory and all but the safest play for a wolf knowing he's going to be alone and vulnerable is to appear as much of a villager as possible. So he would, IMO, have stayed with the majority and not made any waves.

You seem to ignore in your theory as well, the fact that I and ntndeacon both voted away from PB as well.

Are we special? Is there some reason you don't suspect us but do suspect CR?

I voted for YOU yesterday, so if your theory holds any weight at all you should be voting for me, not CR, but CR is the guy you go after?

Your theory has holes the size of Montana.

VOTE THOMKAL

I certainly do suspect others who did not vote for PB, I just directed my comments towards Chief Rum because he voted for me today. And judging from how the voting is going today, I think more and more the perfect place for the wolf to hide was one of you three. I could just as easily vote for you because of your vote on me yesterday, but since CR was the one who opened the attack on me today, I voted for him.

[jeheinz72]

I hate to say it, but I will be out almost all day tomorrow. It's my birthday and a friend got me and my bro and family VIP tickets to the Kings-Ducks game. We're going straight after work, so no chance to check back in until late.

So I am voting now.

Despite his protestation of innocence, I am going with Thomkal. I feel that a wolf tossed on a late vote on PB when it was all but done. IMO, the best two candidates for that are the last two voters, Thomkal and Schmidty. And Schmidty has the excuse of generally not being around early (like me).

So I am going with Thomkal for now.

VOTE THOMKAL

My only issue with that is, wasn't it Thomkal's birthday yesterday (happy b-day to you both, btw), so doesn't that explain his late vote?

I'm still looking at one of Anxiety, Thomkal, Schmidty -- just not sure who.

[jeheinz72]

I can't say I've ever really understood retalitory voting in WW. Just because someone votes for youk, that makes them a wolf? That's some faulty logic, isn't it?

[Abe Sargent]

I can't say I've ever really understood retalitory voting in WW. Just because someone votes for youk, that makes them a wolf? That's some faulty logic, isn't it?

I've always thought so, barring self defense votes.

[jeheinz72]

I've always thought so, barring self defense votes.

Yeah, the only case that makes sense to me is voting for the other horse in a 2-horse race.

Anyhow, for now.

Vote Thomkal

Pending change as the days events unfold.

[Abe Sargent]

This could easily be right, but I do want to make the point that Anxiety's vote was only an hour and a half prior to Thomkal's vote. I think that is where I am going.

Vote Anxiety


(On another note I do apologize for not getting a vote in yesterday. I do believe Iwill be back briefly this afternoon to check but it wont be for long.)

I understand that Day One votes are the most important,. and i don;t begrudge you voting for me, because besides two people, we really have no people in anything resembled a COT, so we have to dig.

Having said that, I do want to point out that my voe was cast at 6, Thomkal;s was an hour and a half later, then it was 7:30. With a 9 deadline, that's a big difference.

[Thomkal]

I'm amazed no one will even explore the possibility that I could be right about where the last wolf is hiding.

[Abe Sargent]

I'm amazed no one will even explore the possibility that I could be right about where the last wolf is hiding.

Your theory should be expanded to "Not vote for PB by voting for another OR by not voting at all"

[Thomkal]

Your theory should be expanded to "Not vote for PB by voting for another OR by not voting at all"

I'm fine with expanding my theory to that since I'm not on that list. Look at my voting record. I did nothing to save or defend either of the two wolves. In fact other than saying I was fine with voting Purdue Brad after the results of day one, I've said nothing about them I believe. Does that really sound like a wolf to you?

[path12]

I'm amazed no one will even explore the possibility that I could be right about where the last wolf is hiding.


I've been wondering about Chief since day 1 actually. He was the other person who was defending Purdue, although it was couched much more as a critique of Alan's push after he got back. I had been hoping that someone would have scanned him, but that's an iffy proposition also.

One thing I don't get, especially after the nice analysis we had yesterday, is the run on Thomkal. I don't see that at all. Other than the Chief questions I've briefly noted above, the other person who intrigues me the most just by his total difference in play is RendeR.

I'll follow my gut on this one for right now anyway.

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[path12]

BTW, Happy Birthday to all in this thread who are having birthdays now or in the next year. Don't want to leave anyone out. ;)

[jeheinz72]

Path is pretty much the only person in my COT other than me, and he's been money so far.

Unvote Thomkal

Vote Chief Rum

[Abe Sargent]

I'm fine with expanding my theory to that since I'm not on that list. Look at my voting record. I did nothing to save or defend either of the two wolves. In fact other than saying I was fine with voting Purdue Brad after the results of day one, I've said nothing about them I believe. Does that really sound like a wolf to you?

Don;t look at me - I haven;t voted for you. You are near the top of my admittedly poor suspicion list but that;s because of a Day One vote, not because you yourself rang my bell.

[RendeR]

Vote Count?

[Schmidty]

I'm amazed no one will even explore the possibility that I could be right about where the last wolf is hiding.

You know very well where he's hiding.

Vote Thomkal

[st.cronin]

Vote count:

Thomkal - Chief Rum (357), Thomkal (360), RendeR (361), Schmidty (376)
Chief Rum - path12 (371), jeheinz (373)
Anxiety - ntndeacon (359)

no vote from: Anxiety

[Abe Sargent]

Yeah, I'm torn on where to go.

[Abe Sargent]

Schmidty seems awfully sure of himself, sounds like there might be something there.

Vote Thomkal

[RendeR]

I don't think thomkal voted for himself....

[st.cronin]

Good point, Render:

Vote count:

Thomkal - 4 - Chief Rum (357), RendeR (361), Schmidty (376), Anxiety (379)
Chief Rum - 3 - path12 (371), jeheinz (373), Thomkal (360)
Anxiety - 1 - ntndeacon (359)

no vote from: Anxiety

[RendeR]

I think Anxiety has voted now too ;)

[Schmidty]

You know, even though I've been insuating this the whole game, I am a Seer/ Medic/ Geneticist. I am allowed to choose 2 people to scan a day. The first person will be scanned if he isn't lynched. If he's lynched, then the number two person will be scanned.

So far my scans are as follows:

Day 1 - ntndeacon is human

Day 2 - Thomkal is a wolf


Now, if we vote for Thomkal and he is NOT a wolf, then I am the fake seer, and Pass is the real one. If he is a wolf, I think we win. Either way, I'm either dead, or a winner, or I confirm Pass as being real. So this reveal is a good idea, I think.

[st.cronin]

Yep, stupid cut n paste:

Vote count:

Thomkal - 4 - Chief Rum (357), RendeR (361), Schmidty (376), Anxiety (379)
Chief Rum - 3 - path12 (371), jeheinz (373), Thomkal (360)
Anxiety - 1 - ntndeacon (359)

[RendeR]

This is looking like the fastes game of WW ever.....Thom wasn't very convincing ;)

[ntndeacon]

You know, even though I've been insuating this the whole game, I am a Seer/ Medic/ Geneticist. I am allowed to choose 2 people to scan a day. The first person will be scanned if he isn't lynched. If he's lynched, then the number two person will be scanned.

So far my scans are as follows:

Day 1 - ntndeacon is human

Day 2 - Thomkal is a wolf


Now, if we vote for Thomkal and he is NOT a wolf, then I am the fake seer, and Pass is the real one. If he is a wolf, I think we win. Either way, I'm either dead, or a winner, or I confirm Pass as being real. So this reveal is a good idea, I think.

woohoo someone scaned me early cause igo under the radar. :) THis is good enough reason to change my vote.

Unvote Anxiety
Vote Thomkal

[Thomkal]

You know, even though I've been insuating this the whole game, I am a Seer/ Medic/ Geneticist. I am allowed to choose 2 people to scan a day. The first person will be scanned if he isn't lynched. If he's lynched, then the number two person will be scanned.

So far my scans are as follows:

Day 1 - ntndeacon is human

Day 2 - Thomkal is a wolf


Now, if we vote for Thomkal and he is NOT a wolf, then I am the fake seer, and Pass is the real one. If he is a wolf, I think we win. Either way, I'm either dead, or a winner, or I confirm Pass as being real. So this reveal is a good idea, I think.

Well I hate to break it to you Schmidty, but you are the fake seer. Or the last wolf, looking for an easy target. Because I'm human. I have no way of proving that of course other than my voting record as I've said before. So if it means my death to prove it, I guess its worth it. I'd rather you vote for the last wolf instead of me though.

[Schmidty]

Well I hate to break it to you Schmidty, but you are the fake seer. Or the last wolf, looking for an easy target. Because I'm human. I have no way of proving that of course other than my voting record as I've said before. So if it means my death to prove it, I guess its worth it. I'd rather you vote for the last wolf instead of me though.

Sorry, I'm not convinced. I have a 50/50 chance of you being the wolf, and a much less chance of someone else being the wolf.

It's just mathematics. No offense.

[Abe Sargent]

Looks like I was right to follow.

[Thomkal]

Sorry, I'm not convinced. I have a 50/50 chance of you being the wolf, and a much less chance of someone else being the wolf.

It's just mathematics. No offense.

No offense taken, you have to take the chance.

[path12]

Schmidty, you said you could scan two people per day. Who were the other ones?

[RendeR]

He has conditional scaning, if the person he wants to scan first gets lynched, then he scans the second.

He just gets to name 2 targets each night, not actually scan 2 people.

[path12]

Dola, and why ntn and Thomkal out of curiosity?

[path12]

He has conditional scaning, if the person he wants to scan first gets lynched, then he scans the second.

He just gets to name 2 targets each night, not actually scan 2 people.

I understand that. I want to know who the other targets were and the reasoning behind them. We have a wolf lover still out there after all......

[RendeR]

I see what yer saying, good point too, who were they and why them?

[path12]

So, are night 2 actions done?

Yes.

Ok then.

I kind of took this exchange to mean that Schmidty was a seer of some kind. I'm not sure which though. I'd have thought that if he scanned Thomkal as a wolf I'd think it would have been a little more........well.......definitive than this exchange indicates.

[path12]

And just following that up a bit further.....if he had scanned Thomkal as a wolf and knew night 2 actions were done, why did he wait until now to out him?

[Schmidty]

Copied and pasted:

Night 1 Scan

1. ntndeacon
2. Thomkal


Night 2 Scan

Scan

1. PurdueBrad (He's likely dead, but)

2. Thomkal


My reasoning was gut, since it was only the first two days, and there isn't a history to go on. Besides, if anyone knows me, I always play on guts, since I have aptitude for logic.

[Schmidty]

I am what I am. I told you what I can. That's it.

I have no idea what else to say. Ask questions I can answer, and I'll answer them; otherwise, it is what it is.

[path12]

I am what I am. I told you what I can. That's it.

I have no idea what else to say. Ask questions I can answer, and I'll answer them; otherwise, it is what it is.

Two questions then:

1) Why weren't you sure about night 2 actions being over?

2) Why didn't you come out and vote Thomkal right after finding out he was a wolf?

[Schmidty]

Two questions then:

1) Why weren't you sure about night 2 actions being over?


Because I was considering revealing at that point, and didn't want to be eaten by wolves.


2) Why didn't you come out and vote Thomkal right after finding out he was a wolf?

Because I didn't want to have to spend the entire day defending myself, and to see if I could hide my role with him still being lynched.

[st.cronin]

Vote count:

Thomkal - 5 - Chief Rum (357), RendeR (361), Schmidty (376), Anxiety (379), ntndeacon (388)
Chief Rum - 3 - path12 (371), jeheinz (373), Thomkal (360)

[Schmidty]

Besides, if anyone knows me, I always play on guts, since I have aptitude for logic.

That should be "no aptitude for logic."

I hate not being able to edit.

[path12]

I think I'll leave my vote where it is. It's not that I don't believe Schmidty, but there are one of three things going on here:

1) Schmidty is on the level. In which case Thomkal is ahead on votes and we win! (assuming he's the good seer)
2) It's a play to save Chief, and Schmidty is the wolf lover and knows Chief is bad.
3) Schmidty is on the level and is wrong.

Either way, we'll find out the way the votes stand now.

[st.cronin]

deadline

[st.cronin]

Vote count:

Thomkal - 5 - Chief Rum (357), RendeR (361), Schmidty (376), Anxiety (379), ntndeacon (388)
Chief Rum - 3 - path12 (371), jeheinz (373), Thomkal (360)

[st.cronin]

Thomkal CHANGES THE VOTE!

Today's lynch victim is Schmidty.

Schmidty is one of your medics!

[Schmidty]

Wondrous.

[st.cronin]

jeheinz72 has been killed by wolves!

He was an ordinary soldier.

Day 4 begins - extended deadline, Saturday 9pm Eastern Time.

[Schmidty]

Oh well. I did my best.

Here We Go Whoever!!! Here We Go!!!!

[Thomkal]

guess the game isn't over so quickly after all?

[path12]

OK, wolf lover. That leaves ntn, Anxiety, RendeR and Chief, if you now want to assume that I was the good duke (which seems clear).

Thoughts?

[path12]

Good job Schmidty. You at least made him reveal. I need to remember if wolf lover scans as wolf or not, if not that means Pass was the correct seer and he cleared ntn, IIRC.

[path12]

Cronin, I take it that the enthusiast is human and should scan as such?

[path12]

Looking back at it, looks like Pass just cleared jeheinz and not ntn.

[Abe Sargent]

Hmm. Well, today we lost two villagers, but the added information really helps.

[Abe Sargent]

cronin, what's the schedule like for the weekend? I see Day 4 deadline Saturday? I won;t be much available then

[ntndeacon]

I have a question Chief. do you remember of any other roles that the wolf lover had, or is the danger over from him?

If he has used his dangerous weapon then we might want to leave Thomkal alone (I am assuming that though he wins with the wolfs he counts as a villager in terms of end game)

[path12]

I have a question Chief. do you remember of any other roles that the wolf lover had, or is the danger over from him?

If he has used his dangerous weapon then we might want to leave Thomkal alone (I am assuming that though he wins with the wolfs he counts as a villager in terms of end game)

It says in the rules he counts as villager, so I'm not planning on voting him.

[Chief Rum]

I have a question Chief. do you remember of any other roles that the wolf lover had, or is the danger over from him?

If he has used his dangerous weapon then we might want to leave Thomkal alone (I am assuming that though he wins with the wolfs he counts as a villager in terms of end game)

No, the duke role and scanning for wolves was all I had the ability to do. Realize, of course, that cronin might have changed that. Also, the wording of my PM didn't exclude the possibility of more than one duking from the wolf lover, and the game changed over before I got the chance to question st.cronin for more clarification.

Still, it seems way too powerful for Thomkal to have more than one duke ability, so I am assuming he is harmless from that standpoint now. Since he counts as a villager, none of us should be voting for him.

I will be out again all day tomorrow and unable to contribute unfortunately. So I must vote again now. I don't feel as strongly about this vote as I did the one on Thomkal, but it's the best of the options I see.

VOTE RENDER

I just get a bad vibe from some of his votes.

[Thomkal]

No, the duke role and scanning for wolves was all I had the ability to do. Realize, of course, that cronin might have changed that. Also, the wording of my PM didn't exclude the possibility of more than one duking from the wolf lover, and the game changed over before I got the chance to question st.cronin for more clarification.

Still, it seems way too powerful for Thomkal to have more than one duke ability, so I am assuming he is harmless from that standpoint now. Since he counts as a villager, none of us should be voting for him.

I will be out again all day tomorrow and unable to contribute unfortunately. So I must vote again now. I don't feel as strongly about this vote as I did the one on Thomkal, but it's the best of the options I see.

VOTE RENDER

I just get a bad vibe from some of his votes.

I am far from harmless. Cronin did indeed change my powers so the former wolf lover wouldn't know everything.

[Thomkal]

Here let me help you, let me vote for a wolf.

vote ntndeacon

[jeheinz72]

Aw pickles....

[Thomkal]

Oh wait I mean to say that a wolf is:

unvote ntndeacon
vote Render

[st.cronin]

Cronin, I take it that the enthusiast is human and should scan as such?

Yes.

Also, let me know what preferences you all have for weekend schedule. I will not be around tonight, but the rest of the weekend is pretty flexible.

[path12]

I'm around this weekend so any schedule will work for me.

[RendeR]

Oh wait I mean to say that a wolf is:

unvote ntndeacon
vote Render


Ok Hoops. Whatever you say.

[path12]

I am far from harmless. Cronin did indeed change my powers so the former wolf lover wouldn't know everything.

I doubt that. And even if so, I'm more than willing to bet you don't have another duke chance in you.

[Abe Sargent]

Do we even listen to Thomkal?

[Abe Sargent]

I will be leaving to go play Magic in a couple of hours and will not be back until tomorrow. I should be around alot then, myschedule has changed

[Thomkal]

Ok Hoops. Whatever you say.

??? I don't get the reference. I take it Hoops had a similar role in another game?

[Thomkal]

I doubt that. And even if so, I'm more than willing to bet you don't have another duke chance in you.

Well that's a rather large bet you'll lose then I guess.

[Thomkal]

Do we even listen to Thomkal?

Do I get a vote? I think you should. I hate talking to myself.

[Thomkal]

Perhaps there lies a wolf this way?

unvote Render
vote Chief Rum

[path12]

Thomkal has the funnest role in the game right now.

[Thomkal]

Thomkal has the funnest role in the game right now.

Yeah its kind of a relaxing way to play Werewolf. The good guys won't vote you off no matter what you say (some of which is true), the bad guys will leave you alone too. I highly recommend it. :)

[claphamsa]

Yeah its kind of a relaxing way to play Werewolf. The good guys won't vote you off no matter what you say (some of which is true), the bad guys will leave you alone too. I highly recommend it. :)

Im the wolf lover in another game now, and no one knows who I am, but I wanna be more involved! it is however real fun :)

[RendeR]

??? I don't get the reference. I take it Hoops had a similar role in another game?


Read My signature. its based on a game a bit back where Hoops was outed as a wolf on day 2, he then announced that *I* was the last wolf.




And the rest of the players LYNCHED ME.

But I'm not bitter.

[path12]

Im the wolf lover in another game now, and no one knows who I am, but I wanna be more involved! it is however real fun :)

I hope you sign up for a game here soon!

[path12]

Read My signature. its based on a game a bit back where Hoops was outed as a wolf on day 2, he then announced that *I* was the last wolf.

I can't read your sig now, once I get to the part about you being in me naked with a cock ring my eyes burn and I start throwing up.

[claphamsa]

I hope you sign up for a game here soon!


me too :)

[Thomkal]

Read My signature. its based on a game a bit back where Hoops was outed as a wolf on day 2, he then announced that *I* was the last wolf.




And the rest of the players LYNCHED ME.

But I'm not bitter.

Yes I can clearly see you aren't bitter :)

[Thomkal]

Maybe there's a wolf over here?

unvote chief rum
vote anxiety

[Thomkal]

Oh c'mon now, we all know this guy's a wolf.

unvote anxiety
vote path12

[Lorena]

BTW, Happy Birthday to all in this thread who are having birthdays now or in the next year. Don't want to leave anyone out. ;)

Thanks path! Your birthday is a week after my son's so it'll be easy to remember :)

Oh and HAPPY BELATED BIRTHDAY CHIEF!!

http://www.mommiescamelot.com/forum/images/smilies/poklon.gif

[Abe Sargent]

Oh c'mon now, we all know this guy's a wolf.

unvote anxiety
vote path12

My name is capitalized

[Chief Rum]

Thanks path! Your birthday is a week after my son's so it'll be easy to remember :)

Oh and HAPPY BELATED BIRTHDAY CHIEF!!

http://www.mommiescamelot.com/forum/images/smilies/poklon.gif

Thanks DC! And to path as well, and everyone extending birthday wishes. I'm halfway to 70 now! Yay! My dribbling days are one year closer. :)

[ntndeacon]

My vote will be on one of the three that idon't know thier role...Chief Rum, Render, and Anxiety. For some reason I get a positive vibe out of Anxiety, so I wont be voting for him right now. So my choice is betwen Chief and Render. I feel Render has been more wolf like so I will go there.

Vote Render

I could easily be wrong this is more a hunch than anything else.

[Abe Sargent]

I think we are all at hunch time ntndeacon.

I feel like I should follow CR and ntndeacon. With two wolf aligned people out there, having three on a person avoids any shenanigans.

Vote RendeR

[st.cronin]

RendeR - 3 - Chief Rum (420), ntndeacon (448), Anxiety (449)
path12 - 1 - Thomkal (444)

No vote: path12, Render

[path12]

I can go with that.

VOTE RENDER

[RendeR]

Fools.

[st.cronin]

RendeR - 4 - Chief Rum (420), ntndeacon (448), Anxiety (449), path12 (451)
path12 - 1 - Thomkal (444)

No vote: Render

[st.cronin]

deadline

[st.cronin]

Today's lynch victim is RendeR.

RendeR was an ordinary soldier.

Pms going out.

[st.cronin]

Path12 is dead! Killed by wolves.

Day 5 Begins, deadline Monday 9pm, Eastern Time.

(I will accept nightfall votes.)

[Abe Sargent]

path dying is no surprise. I think any wolf would kill the cleared path.

I have no clue whether to vote for ntn or CR. Neither has pinged my wolfdar. I need to go back and read posts.

[Abe Sargent]

Deadline in two days? Dang

[st.cronin]

Deadline in two days? Dang

I can do a Sunday deadline, if everybody posts in thread that that's what they want.

[Abe Sargent]

One wolf left. This should be over one way or the other today. I feel like that game where I was Ares and I got to the end and my eyes were clouded.

[Abe Sargent]

I can do a Sunday deadline, if everybody posts in thread that that's what they want.

I'd prefer Sunday, but obviously I can;t speak for the others.

[Thomkal]

Oh good, I get to have some more fun. :)

[Thomkal]

Sunday deadline is far preferred for me

[ntndeacon]

Sunday is fine with me as well.

[RendeR]

Fools.

[ntndeacon]

why, Render? cause we voted you out?

[ntndeacon]

One wolf left. This should be over one way or the other today. I feel like that game where I was Ares and I got to the end and my eyes were clouded.

It will be. this is our last chance to kill the wolf.

[path12]

Bummer. Go good guys!

[Chief Rum]

It will be. this is our last chance to kill the wolf.

No, it isn't. Thomkal counts for the villagers in the count. We have two chances.

[Chief Rum]

Well, no, actually, Thomkal and the wolf will vote out the remaining nonwolf member. Hmm...

We could vote to kill Thomkal. Won't really give us more information, but it could buy us a day of time if we need it.

I say we figure out who the last wolf is and kill him now, but if we're deadlocked, we can make the switch and give us another day to think it over.

[Chief Rum]

I'd prefer Sunday, but obviously I can;t speak for the others.

BTW, count me for Sunday as well. Two games ago, Neon kept a small remaining contingent waiting two whole days at the end, too, and that was just pheonomenally crappy. I don't want to do that again.

[Chief Rum]

Okay, here are my thoughts.

On Day One, Anxiety was the only one of the three of us to not vote for a wolf.

Schmidty appears to have been the fake seer, so we get no read from him "clearing" ntndeacon. But he read Thomkal as a wolf, and he's not. The chances he got both reads wrong at random is just one in four, viewed from before knowing how Thomkal would read.

Anxiety voted on PB when it looked like it was going to be a runaway, which would have been a good move for a wolf to generate trust. He didn't automatically jump to PB from Pass that day when Pass revealed, but waited, only unvoting Pass.

Anxiety also was the last of us to commit his vote today, although I put little weight into that, because the last wolf has no bad vote.

Also, ntndeacon missed a vote, and how often does that happen with a wolf (and on a day a wolf got lynched, too, to boot)? And he put the second vote on PB on Day One, when there was no other votes on anyone. I don't see a wolf risking a Day One bandwagon like that.

Finally, just call it a hunch, but Anxiety has seemed more "helpful" to me, posting longer posts and what not. He's always helpful and puts up solid posts, but he seems to be doing more of it this game than usual. And when Thomkal yesterday was doing his little "hoopsguy" dance, Anxiety even asked if we should put any weight to what he is saying? Huh?

I'll admit nothing is ironclad, but I think Anxiety is the last wolf.

VOTE ANXIETY

[Abe Sargent]

I understand that CR. If you are the last villager besides myself, then its a 50/50 shot. Now, if you are the wolf, its pick your target.

To be fair, I didn;t just vote for PB, I was one of the people leading towards PB.

I voted last because I didn;t know where to vote. Still don;t.

I'm glad your ammo is "Vote Abe, he's really helpful"

;)

[Thomkal]

I know who I'm voting for. :)

[RendeR]

why, Render? cause we voted you out?



Of course. It should have been plainly obvious that I was not a wolf in this game. So painfully obvious that I simply cannot belive that anyone of you would ever actually consider the IDEA of me being a wolf to be within the utter realm of posibility.


hrm, thats a bit wordy.


Of course I wasn't a wolf, how is it you fools didn't see that?





;)

[Thomkal]

Of course. It should have been plainly obvious that I was not a wolf in this game. So painfully obvious that I simply cannot belive that anyone of you would ever actually consider the IDEA of me being a wolf to be within the utter realm of posibility.


hrm, thats a bit wordy.


Of course I wasn't a wolf, how is it you fools didn't see that?





;)

I saw it! Guess I'm not a fool then. :D

[ntndeacon]

Well, no, actually, Thomkal and the wolf will vote out the remaining nonwolf member. Hmm...

We could vote to kill Thomkal. Won't really give us more information, but it could buy us a day of time if we need it.

I say we figure out who the last wolf is and kill him now, but if we're deadlocked, we can make the switch and give us another day to think it over.

no we cant switch. there are 4 of us left. when we lynch someone that will be 3 left. when the wolf (assuming we dont lynch him) kills tonight, we are down to 2. one wolf and one non wolf. At that point the wolves achieve parity with the villagers and thus win. if we lynch Thomkal today then we are HANDING a victory to the wolves

[Raiders Army]

Dog Soldiers was an underrated movie. Wish I had gotten in on this one.

[ntndeacon]

Well time to make my guess...

Vote Chief Rum

SOrry Chief if you are a soldier.

[Abe Sargent]

no we cant switch. there are 4 of us left. when we lynch someone that will be 3 left. when the wolf (assuming we dont lynch him) kills tonight, we are down to 2. one wolf and one non wolf. At that point the wolves achieve parity with the villagers and thus win. if we lynch Thomkal today then we are HANDING a victory to the wolves

Yes, we are.

It's not much I admit, and I wish there was something better I had on any non-Thomkal player left, but suggesting it is a reason for me to be suspicious.

Vote Chief Rum

[Abe Sargent]

Wow, our vote at the exact same time looks suspicios

[Abe Sargent]

And kinda funny ;)

[ntndeacon]

yes I noticed it too Anxiety, but I am sticking with my vote. when I posted it I was alone as far as I knew.

[ntndeacon]

well I am off to a bday celebration of a friend.

So in case I need to, Vote Nightfall

[st.cronin]

All remaining players have asked for a Sunday deadline, so the deadline is 9pm eastern time TODAY.

[Chief Rum]

Well, might as well if you're gone. Whichever of you is not the wolf, you have lost us this game. I have done nothing in this game that is consistent with being a wolf. At least I backed up my vote.

Might as well end it now...

Vote Nightfall

[Chief Rum]

Yes, we are.

It's not much I admit, and I wish there was something better I had on any non-Thomkal player left, but suggesting it is a reason for me to be suspicious.

Vote Chief Rum

You mean like suggesting we listen to a known wolf lover? That kind of suspicious suggestion?

[Abe Sargent]

You mean like suggesting we listen to a known wolf lover? That kind of suspicious suggestion?

That was a ironic comment that I figured we all would know wasn;t serious CR.

[Abe Sargent]

Vote Nightfall as well I suppose.

[st.cronin]

Chief Rum - 2 - ntndeacon (479), Anxiety (480)
Anxiety - 1 - Chief Rum (472)

no vote: Thomkal

Thomkal is also the only one not to vote nightfall.

[Chief Rum]

That was a ironic comment that I figured we all would know wasn;t serious CR.

Dude, you're in a WW game. I think you're "figuring" on your own there.

[Thomkal]

Well lets end the suspense then.

vote chief rum
vote nightfall

[st.cronin]

deadline

[st.cronin]

Chief Rum - 3 - ntndeacon (479), Anxiety (480), Thomkal (492)
Anxiety - 1 - Chief Rum (472)

Lynch result:

Chief Rum has been lynched! He was an ordinary soldier.

Night result:

ntndeacon has been killed! He was an ordinary soldier.

The game is over. Anxiety was the last wolf! I hope everybody had fun.

[Chief Rum]

Well, way to go wolves. I still can't believe after all I put out there against Anxiety, that ntn voted for me. I guess it doesn't matter now, but I would really like to know why, after all the reasons I listed for Anxiety, that ntn voted for me.

[st.cronin]

I was worried that this game would be too hard for the village to win, but it almost turned out the other way. I enjoyed running this game, and as always feedback and constructive criticism is welcome.

[Abe Sargent]

Yeah, wolves got hosed early because of path's brilliant duking. I did not expect to make it this far all on my own.

[Abe Sargent]

Thomkal, you won too, right?

[Thomkal]

yes indeed I did Anxiety, congrats. :)

[Passacaglia]

Wow, close one.