Werewolf LXIII - Fall of the Elementals (Game Over - Avatars Win!)

[Coffee Warlord]

My bad, missed that last vote by Schmidty.

Current tally is Clap 5, Mr W 4.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, I've had some other thoughts on who it was as well.

From what I can tell, the only downside to an Elemental announcing it today would be that they would indicate that they don't have a night action tonight.

[path12]

Quietest deadline yet.

[Mr. Wednesday]

That doesn't strike me as much of a downside.

I don't think there's enough time to orchestrate a switch.

[Mr. Wednesday]

@path12
hoops is on me, I think you're on me, I'm on claphamsa, I don't see the momentum for anything interesting to happen.

[hoopsguy]

For what it is worth, I'm intrigued that we haven't really pursued the whole "learn something from previous vote" strategy this game.

Day 1 - three way action with me, Pass, and SnDvls
Day 2 - Cronin, Swaggs, and SnDvls
Day 3 - MrW and Clap

I know that Day 1 was three Elementals, but most people probably can't be sure. Today we didn't really seem to consider Cronin or Swaggs.

We don't have much to show for voting records at this point if we whiff today.

[hoopsguy]

@path12
hoops is on me, I think you're on me, I'm on claphamsa, I don't see the momentum for anything interesting to happen.

If you felt like there was time to orchestrate a switch, would you want to? Where would you go if you felt people would follow?

[claphamsa]

peace out all!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Well, I didn't go after cronin because there was some sentiment in his favor from Lathum, and I don't trust my vibes with cronin because it seems like I always get a bad vibe from him.

[claphamsa]

ill follow anywhere :)

[hoopsguy]

Let's see what the Trout has to say for himself. I'm hoping for a good result, but not really expecting one.

[Coffee Warlord]

Ding.

[claphamsa]

:'(

dying sucks!

[Mr. Wednesday]

If you felt like there was time to orchestrate a switch, would you want to? Where would you go if you felt people would follow?

I don't know that I would have wanted to. I tend to be too ready to change my mind about who to vote for. And, I don't think there would have been any momentum for it. Too many people who had more or less settled on their vote, not enough actually in the thread at the end.

[Coffee Warlord]

The Trout is expecting you as you reach the sacred altar. Unlike his companions, he, in his fishy goodness, speaks. His voice is terrible and beautiful at the same time.

"A shame you did not select the Trout option, but cosmic rules are cosmic rules."

With that, the fish grows to Colossal proportions, summoning claphamsa to the altar. But he is not going to go quietly. Seconds before he is to be consumed by the Holy Trout, he shrieks, "I am the Avatar of Fear! I shall haunt your dreams for all eternity! None can oppose the Ava....."*chomp.*

Trout don't have a lot of patience for speeches.

Clap was the Avatar of Fear.

Trout 1, Squid 1, Yak 1, Elementals 1!

[path12]

If you felt like there was time to orchestrate a switch, would you want to? Where would you go if you felt people would follow?

I was OK either way. No reason to switch.

[path12]

How 'bout that?

[hoopsguy]

That was exactly the shot in the arm we needed. Nice job by all the Clap voters, especially Schmidty who came in to bust the tie late.

[Coffee Warlord]

Weekend schedule, if people approve.

We're looking pretty good, schedule wise, so I'll run night tonight, deadline around, say...noon tomorrow. From then, we'll let Day 4 run from noon tomorrow to 9pm SUNDAY night. That should give everyone time to get their 2 cents in.

Cool?

[Mr. Wednesday]

W00t!

[hoopsguy]

Now why did Clap cook up that story about his scan failing?

OK, he posted a lot so there should be some stuff to find over the weekend.

[hoopsguy]

Is it worth posting thoughts on trust and the like now, or would people prefer to have that conversation at the start of Day 4 instead?

[path12]

Now why did Clap cook up that story about his scan failing?

OK, he posted a lot so there should be some stuff to find over the weekend.

Yeah, it's gonna be post recap time.

[hoopsguy]

BTW, schedule is cool with me.

[Mr. Wednesday]

OK, the odd move that claphamsa did the other day was not vote for SnDvls and instead vote for st.cronin. Can we read anything into that? Do we suppose that cronin is an avatar and clap knew that a vote for cronin would not carry?

(I think a reasonable possibility is that as often seems to be the case, we voted for the right guy for the wrong reason, which would have been driving clap nuts if he's anything like me.)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Schedule works.

[claphamsa]

damnit hoops you were supposed to help me!

{x} go AVS!

[Mr. Wednesday]

How's hoops supposed to help you when he's already voting for me? :p

[path12]

OK, the odd move that claphamsa did the other day was not vote for SnDvls and instead vote for st.cronin. Can we read anything into that? Do we suppose that cronin is an avatar and clap knew that a vote for cronin would not carry?

(I think a reasonable possibility is that as often seems to be the case, we voted for the right guy for the wrong reason, which would have been driving clap nuts if he's anything like me.)

I tend to think that would mean that maybe it was an elemental/elemental choice.

[path12]

BTW, no problem with the schedule here either.

[hoopsguy]

Clap, what more do you want than me voting for the other guy? Sheesh.

I felt like we had a better twosome for this vote than I did yesterday based on the lack of verifiable actions by/against the people on the block. I'm glad it worked out, even if I was on the wrong side of the tally at the end of the day.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I tend to think that would mean that maybe it was an elemental/elemental choice.
I'm not saying I disagree with this, but what's your thinking on that? How do you see clap's vote to cronin (pushing toward a tie or one-vote lead ahead of himself) instead of SnDvls indicating that cronin is elemental?

(I don't think this is necessary a bad conclusion, and I have my own ideas about how to reason it, I just want to see yours.)

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think we might have just rescued the game, depending on how many elementals there were to start.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Er, never mind, there are more people left than I thought. :o

It would have been touchy tomorrow, though.

[hoopsguy]

Er, never mind, there are more people left than I thought. :o

It would have been touchy tomorrow, though.

Might also depend on if there are any more 3rd parties out there like Saldana and how they factor in end-game. I haven't spent a lot of time looking at those scenarios yet because I figured even with a bad vote today we still would see Day 4.

[path12]

I'm not saying I disagree with this, but what's your thinking on that? How do you see clap's vote to cronin (pushing toward a tie or one-vote lead ahead of himself) instead of SnDvls indicating that cronin is elemental?

(I don't think this is necessary a bad conclusion, and I have my own ideas about how to reason it, I just want to see yours.)

OK, I didn't go back and see the vote count and that it was a three-person race, I was just going by what you said about voting cronin instead of the now-known elemental SnDvls.

[Schmidty]

Glad to see that that worked out. :)

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, I'm hoping that you can let us know (either tonight or tomorrow after deadline) if it was you that lowered the boom on Saldana earlier today.

[Swaggs]

I'm caught up... looks like I missed quite a bit.

Good job nailing Clap. I'm not sure who I would have gone with between the two of them (MrW and Clap), so probably good that it worked out the way it did.

[Swaggs]

Hoops, any thoughts on whether there are/were more than one human?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm not hoops, but I would imagine that the human would be one of the lone "you win if you survive" types, possibly a sorceror "plays like an elemental but wins with the avatars" type. Which is to say, I wouldn't expect there to be more than one.

[hoopsguy]

Hoops, any thoughts on whether there are/were more than one human?

I haven't yet sifted through the posts of Saldana (or Clap) but my gut is that he was acting alone.

However, *here comes big-time speculation* knowing Coffee Warlord, it would not surprise me if there is another personal with an individual victory condition. Potentially another solo player?

We started with 15 players. I would think something like 10-3-1-1 could be the ratio, as long as the 1-1 don't both count against the Elementals.

My victory conditions don't give me any reason to think this is the case, as they are pretty straight-forward. This is more me thinking out loud about what I would expect from CW after a review of the rules set.

[hoopsguy]

That said, I don't see any edge to be gained at the moment speculating on what CW might, or might not, include in the game as far as mystery factions. If you have an angle that you are pushing here I'm probably not seeing it.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - I know you asked earlier in the game about 3rd factions and didn't get much response. Since you are returning to this topic, I'm guessing you have some kind of info in your PM that talks about this?

I wonder if that first comment on a third faction is what set Saldana on you?

[Swaggs]

I am more asking because I was thinking about the number of Elementals vs Avatars vs Humans. I had originally assumed that there were 3-4 Avatars, but now I'm thinking there were 2-3, with some other folks (possibly 2 humans?) mixed in to mess with us.

I'm guessing my comment did lead Sal to scrutinize me, which was unfortunate for him, because it lead me to look at him a little closer, as well.

I am a little hesitant to overplay things just yet, but hopefully my moves and posts have been pretty transparant. We had a pretty good day today.

[Lathum]

I know it was mentioned earlier but I am wondering if part of Saldanas win condition was to kill swaggs.

He went after him pretty hard, and that is very unlike Saldana early on, he usualy sits back the first few days and takes everything in before going after someone the way he did Swaggs.

[Coffee Warlord]

A wild night, as all of you feel the power of a wide range of forces at work. People were definately up to quite a variety of things.

As you commence the day's activities, you come across the lifeless hulk of Schmidty, his body mauled by some wild beast, his brain literally removed from his body. Ethereal goo is covering his very dead body, which beings its slow retreat into nothingness. Another Elemental has fallen.

A louch belch is heard from behind you, and the drunk of the Elementals states, hey, I thought it was supposed to be the Sign of the Squid today!. It is however, not. The Sign of the Rhino is overhead.

http://www.hark.org/images/rhino.jpg

[Lathum]

hmmm.

OK, it couldn't have been swaggs who killed schmidty, I used my ability to stop Swaggs from using his ability. I was succesfull.

[Swaggs]

Anyone want to fess up to casting a spell on me last night?

Unless it was Schmidty, that person should be, at least, cleared of the murder.

[Swaggs]

Heh... scratch that previous post. :)

[st.cronin]

Nothing to report from last night. I plan to vote for one of the following:

Mr. Wednesday
Jonathan Ezarik
jeheinz72

...unless somebody comes forward with something new.

[Lathum]

I am leaning towards Mr. Wed.

JE and Jheinze pretty much cleared each other.

Hoops still worries me, but I don't know why

[st.cronin]

I thought one of them cleared the other, but that it went just one way.

[st.cronin]

Here's my take on the remaining players:


2) hoopsguy not sure, lean towards good
5) path12 in my cot
6) Jonathan Ezarik distrust
8) Lathum not sure, lean towards good
10) Swaggs not sure, lean towards good
11) st.cronin elemental
12) jeheinz72 distrust
14) Mr. Wednesday distrust

[st.cronin]

Of the Lathum, Swaggs, hoopsguy triumvirate I would rate them Lathum (highest trust), Swaggs (mid-level trust), and hoopsguy (lowest level of trust).

In other words, if I am convinced that Mr. W, je, and jh are all good, then I will probably end up voting for hoopsguy.

[Swaggs]

Really, the only person I feel rasonably good about is Lathum. The fact that I can verify his action on me from last night tells me that he, at least, did not kill Schmidty.

Hoops makes me nervous, as well. He wiggled out of the day 1 lynch and everyone else that was involved, as the leading vote getters that day (Pass and SnDvls) are now verified to be good. He and Clap also had an odd exchange at the end of yesterday, regarding hoops' vote, which stuck out to me. The only thing that makes me feel reasonably good about him is that, with so many powers floating around, it would seem like someone would have busted him by now if he were bad.

[st.cronin]

Really, the only person I feel rasonably good about is Lathum. The fact that I can verify his action on me from last night tells me that he, at least, did not kill Schmidty.

Hoops makes me nervous, as well. He wiggled out of the day 1 lynch and everyone else that was involved, as the leading vote getters that day (Pass and SnDvls) are now verified to be good. He and Clap also had an odd exchange at the end of yesterday, regarding hoops' vote, which stuck out to me. The only thing that makes me feel reasonably good about him is that, with so many powers floating around, it would seem like someone would have busted him by now if he were bad.

Can you point to the hoops/clap exchange, and expand on that?

[Swaggs]

Can you point to the hoops/clap exchange, and expand on that?

Yeah... let me look it up.

I reviewed most of the thread yesterday when I got home, so it may have stuck out to me more than it would have if it unfolded as it happened. And, also with the hindsight that Clap was a wolf.

[Lathum]

I am out for a while.

When I get back I neeed to remember to see who cleared who between Jheinze and JE.

[Swaggs]

Yes, that helps a lot. It is much clearer to me what happened.

Hmm, I have my doubts that you were the one performing the ritual on me Night 1 if your scan outright failed. Possible Saldana?

Swaggs, if/when you show up, have you had a ritual performed against you at any point this game?

Just saw this while reviewing...

Hoops, not until last night when Lathum blocked my action.

I suspect that may be due to the fact that I have been under scrutiny a bit, so the wolves may have thought it better to leave me alone and leave me as a lynch candidate.

[Swaggs]

Here is what I come up with after a brief scan.

Quite likely just hoops doing some thinking outloud, as he made a number of unrelated posts, as well. It was just something that seemed to stick out to me when I read through the last few hours of yesterday.

so the arguemtns against me are that I messed up last night, and didnt read the thread, and tonight, since hinze said nothgin usefull I voted for him, anythign meaningful? or am i realy gonna get lynched for not paying enough attention yesterday?

I'm OK with that as long as I'm not finding my way onto the Page 1 updates with a "death by trout - Elemental" next to my name.

thats gonna be my spot i fear!

Since my vote is on the other guy I'm not the one you need to pursuade. However, I think the argument is that:
1.) We don't have any kind of vouch for you
2.) The power you have reported using didn't work, and is being reported differently than others who may have been blocked as well

With Cronin and Path, they knew their powers had been altered. Schmidty hasn't posted enough detail on his power being "stolen" to really compare notes with your story. I think if someone else had a similar experience to yours it would help your credibility a great deal.

1) not my fault no one scanned me?
2) well I only get what Im told :(

For what it is worth, I'm intrigued that we haven't really pursued the whole "learn something from previous vote" strategy this game.

Day 1 - three way action with me, Pass, and SnDvls
Day 2 - Cronin, Swaggs, and SnDvls
Day 3 - MrW and Clap

I know that Day 1 was three Elementals, but most people probably can't be sure. Today we didn't really seem to consider Cronin or Swaggs.

We don't have much to show for voting records at this point if we whiff today.

damnit hoops you were supposed to help me!

{x} go AVS!

Clap, what more do you want than me voting for the other guy? Sheesh.

I felt like we had a better twosome for this vote than I did yesterday based on the lack of verifiable actions by/against the people on the block. I'm glad it worked out, even if I was on the wrong side of the tally at the end of the day.

[Swaggs]

Thinking it through, I've got to give props to CW for this game. We may be one or two good moves away from winning it, but we are down to 8 people and I semi-trust Lathum and trust myself, at this point.

Hopefully someone made a good ID last night that can open things up a bit.

[st.cronin]

I'm not sure what, exactly, you think you're seeing there.

[Swaggs]

I'm checking out for a bit, too.

The whole RichRod/Michigan saga is making me think I need to spend some time away from the internets for a bit.

[Swaggs]

I'm not sure what, exactly, you think you're seeing there.

It just seemed like a lot of directed, one-on-one intereraction while I was reading it. As I said, it was an odd exchange, to me.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I used an action last night to protect Lathum. I actually send the order in saying that I was flip-flopping between Schmidty and Lathum, but went with Lathum because he was a more vocal player. My thought there was Schmidty was trusted after last night, but Lathum was also trusted by extension.

Someone did try to act against Lathum last night, using a spell that would have switched places with him. My power prevented this from happening. But I have no information on who tried to act against him.

Swaggs, I spent some time talking with Clap last night because he was around and posting. This is my first game playing with him and I was trying to get a measure of the guy. I even posted to that effect, and will be happy to pull that up as a reference if it helps you with your thought process on me.

I would find it very convenient to be cleared at this point but I'm OK with not being as long as we are continuing to learn more about other players.

[hoopsguy]

OK, guess people don't plan to talk until tomorrow.

[st.cronin]

The three people I wanted to hear from haven't logged on today, at all. That's the 2 J's and Mr. W.

[st.cronin]

VOTE MR. WEDNESDAY

I won't be around tomorrow.

[Lathum]

I can confirm I was protected last night and someone tried a spell on me.

I can't confirm it was Hoops but at this point I have to trust him.

[hoopsguy]

OK, four people who have reported from last night and four still to come:

Lathum - stopped Swaggs from using ability
Hoops - protected Lathum, someone tried to use spell on Lathum to switch places
Cronin - nothing to report
Swaggs - blocked from action

Path - ???
Jonathan - ???
Heinz - ???
MrW - ???

Cronin, if you do pop in at some point today I would like to talk a little bit about your actions this game. Going from memory, I know you were targeted by SnDvls Night 1, but I don't recall anything from Days 2 and 3 in terms of actions. My insights into you being blocked on Night 1 does not give me any info on what you were attempting and you haven't said what it was.

[hoopsguy]

Can you check those numbers? I show the following:

Clap - Cronin (557), JE (584), Lathum (681), MrW (708), Schmidty (728)
MrW - Hoops (617), Heinz (621), Clap (707), Path (724)
The now-dead Saldana - Swaggs (569)

Here is the final votes for Day 3.

Unless we had an avatar/avatar runoff, there should be good information here.

I'm on the wrong side of the vote with Heinz, Clap, and Path. We all know about Clap at this point and I know about myself. So that leaves me with Heinz and Path to question today.

I'll feel better about this train of thought if we have something showing MrW to be an Elemental between now and the deadline. He stated he would be using a power on Night 3, so maybe that will help.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I did use my power. See CW's introduction to the day. No one interfered with me.

I suspect, if there are two (or more) avatars remaining, we may find one on each side of the vote yesterday.

[hoopsguy]

MrW, I have re-read the intro to the day and don't see anything called out as your action. So can you just say what your action was?

[Mr. Wednesday]

A louch belch is heard from behind you, and the drunk of the Elementals states, hey, I thought it was supposed to be the Sign of the Squid today!. It is however, not. The Sign of the Rhino is overhead.
Quote for emphasis.

[hoopsguy]

So, you invoked the day with your action from another day? And, it happens that the day we now have is the day that had not yet arrived?

I kind of figured the part you bolded is what you would suggest was your power, but I'm trying to figure out what good that does as a power for another day or how that suggests you are an Elemental.

[Lathum]

I can confirm that I was scanned last night, and I can also confirm that I'm an Elemental. :)

i gotta vote somewhere and heinz is way smarter than me so

vote lathum

OK< this is what I was looking for.

JeHeinze scanned Jon Ezarik. Earlier in the game Clap voted with JeHeinze against me, I am wondering if they were trying to get a bandwagon.

IMO JEHeinze scanning JE doesn't clear JEHeinze at all.

Has anyone else seen any indication of JEHeinze being cleared for any reason?

[hoopsguy]

Nope, and they are both players with a minimum of verifiable actions.

I should have some time for post digging in the next hour or two. I'll be looking for people Clap doesn't mention at any point in his posts.

[path12]

Once again I received no result from last night, but unless someone specifically targeted me I wouldn't have.

[path12]

Dola, I've got a sick household, so my weekend has been far more hectic than planned.

[hoopsguy]

Working through some posts from Clap. Since he was in the line of fire on Day 2 I'm hoping there is some value here.

[Lathum]

VOTE JEHEINZE

[hoopsguy]

OK, I posted the Day 3 vote earlier. Here is the final Day 2 vote.

Cronin - Barkeep (270), Clap (462), SnDvls (472), Swaggs (501)
SnDvls - Cronin (426), Path (443), JE (479)
Clap - Hoops (432), Lathum (495), MrW (498)
Swaggs - Saldana (382)
Hoops - Schmidty (378)
Lathum - JEHeinz (333)

Both times Clap was in the mix at the end. There are two people who didn't vote for him either time: Swaggs and Path. I'm probably going to look at one of those two for my vote today.

[hoopsguy]

A further review of voting records look much worse for Path than they do for Swaggs.

Day 1 - Clap votes Pass, Path votes PurdueBrad, Swaggs votes Clap
Summary: nothing to see here, three villagers up for vote, all three are spread out

Day 2 - Clap votes votes Cronin, Path votes SnDvls, Swaggs changes vote late from SnDvls to Cronin
Summary: well, we know that SnDvls was an Elemental. We don't know about Cronin yet. But if both are Elementals, then why switch and draw the attention?

Day 3: Clap votes MrW, Path votes MrW, Swaggs votes Saldana early, never returns to change it
Summary: Path was a later vote, forcing a 4-4 tie when it was unlikely Schmidty or Swaggs would return (Schmidty did). Swaggs wasn't around at deadline, indicating either that he has a life or wasn't that invested in the outcome

[hoopsguy]

I'm pretty certain Path was telling the truth about his power being altered. Only scenarios where this doesn't need to be true is:
a.) he has the "alter power" option and got feedback from the moderator on the impact for target
b.) he is on same team as Cronin

But the most simple answer is that his power was in fact altered. It doesn't mean that he isn't an Elemental, it just means that he wasn't the Night 1 killer.

[hoopsguy]

Ah, crap. JEHeinz wasn't on Clap either time either.
Day 2 - he voted Lathum early, never changed it
Day 3 - he followed me on the MrW vote early and never changed it

[hoopsguy]

OK, at this point I'm not going to vote for Swaggs. There were enough comments by Clap yesterday that I interpreted as trying to create doubt about Swaggs that I think he is a distant 3rd.

Heinz has vouched for Jonathan as good, but that is an easy one for a bad guy to do since they know the sides. Heck, even if Jonathan was playing a 3rd party like Saldana, he wouldn't go against this vouch.

So, I'm looking for arguments about Path vs Heinz if anyone feels like offering something between now and the deadline.

[Mr. Wednesday]

So, you invoked the day with your action from another day? And, it happens that the day we now have is the day that had not yet arrived?

I kind of figured the part you bolded is what you would suggest was your power, but I'm trying to figure out what good that does as a power for another day or how that suggests you are an Elemental.
Frankly, I don't think that a whole lot of powers that have been exercised identify the exerciser as an elemental.

It was certainly possible that today would be Rhino anyway, but I preferred to force it.

[path12]

Because I didn't vote Clap either day means that you should vote for me? I think I've been one of the most open people around here information-wise. That reasoning smells.

Got a question? Fire away.

[hoopsguy]

Path, what have you done each of the last two nights?

Do you disagree with the line of reasoning, or the fact that you are one of the people that comes under scrutiny because of it?

[hoopsguy]

I saw your post from last night that you received no PM. Should we assume that you didn't put in an action last night?

[path12]

Path, what have you done each of the last two nights?

Do you disagree with the line of reasoning, or the fact that you are one of the people that comes under scrutiny because of it?

Night 2 I did nothing, because the power I lost on night 1 was one that was available under the Yak. The power I received in return is under the Rhino, so I have a choice between two tonight.

Last night my power was that if anyone used magic on me, I would be protected but it would randomly target another player. Since I got no result, I'm assuming nobody targeted me last night.

I disagree with the line of reasoning because I have been totally open with what has happened to me each night, while others have been far more secretive and apparently catch no heat. And after playing nursemaid for two solid days, I'm in a really shitty mood and worried I'm catching something myself.

[hoopsguy]

Path, do you think that the line of reasoning has merit when applied to JEHeinz and Swaggs?

Sorry you aren't feeling well, fwiw.

[hoopsguy]

Also, who are the more secretive players that have you concerned?

[path12]

I don't know. I know that when I'm a wolf I like to get at least one vote in on a fellow wolf to avoid exactly this kind of reasoning. So I guess that my answer is that the reasoning seems a little less valid depending on how experienced you believe the bad guy is.

All I know about JEH is that he says he cleared JE. He hasn't said much I can recall other than that. But for that matter JE hasn't said a whole lot either, or Swaggs.

Right now I lean towards trusting Cronin because we had the same experience night 1, Lathum and myself. That's about it.

[path12]

Dola, I'd still like to know who attacked me night 1 also. And what I'd really love to see is that someone else besides me tried to scan hoops at some point.

[Lathum]

I just think JEH and Clap were trying to hide out in the open.

[path12]

VOTE JEHEINZ

For reasons above. I've got to run to the store in about 15 minutes or so to pick up some medicine and a gift that Ms.Path needs for someone, but will be around until then.

[hoopsguy]

If you want to talk about secretive players, Cronin should definitely be on that list. All he has given us is that his power was altered on Night 1, which I can vouch for by virtue of spying on SnDvls. Heck, we don't even know that you guys had an identical power used to negate, as no one has fessed up to acting against you.

I agree with trusting Lathum and would encourage anyone with a protection power to go to him this evening.

[hoopsguy]

I just think JEH and Clap were trying to hide out in the open.

Heinz, with his 12 posts, hasn't exactly been out in the open.

The only action we have from him is vouching for JE. Other than that, we know nothing about him. Heck, he doesn't even have to have used an action to do that as the Avatars know who are Elementals.

[Lathum]

I agree with trusting Lathum and would encourage anyone with a protection power to go to him this evening.

i agree with this srtagey

[hoopsguy]

Dola, I'd still like to know who attacked me night 1 also. And what I'd really love to see is that someone else besides me tried to scan hoops at some point.

Again, I'm fine with being scanned. But I've had my actions confirmed on two nights (Night 1 and Night 3) by two different players - SnDvls and Lathum. I think that should count for something when you are trying to work through who is the most likely Avatar in our midst.

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, were you the one who took out Saldana yesterday?

[Swaggs]

Man... the Central deadline keeps messing with my head.

I was on the phone and afraid I wouldn't be able to catch up in time to make a useful vote.

[Swaggs]

Swaggs, were you the one who took out Saldana yesterday?

No comment. :)

[path12]

Again, I'm fine with being scanned. But I've had my actions confirmed on two nights (Night 1 and Night 3) by two different players - SnDvls and Lathum. I think that should count for something when you are trying to work through who is the most likely Avatar in our midst.

I understand that. But the fact that nobody else has even talked about scanning you after day 1 just boggles my mind from a meta-standpoint.

[Lathum]

Man... the Central deadline keeps messing with my head.

I was on the phone and afraid I wouldn't be able to catch up in time to make a useful vote.

you have over an hour

[Swaggs]

you have over an hour

Yeah... I realized that a few minutes ago.

[hoopsguy]

Trust lists, from highest to least:
Hoopsguy - duh
Lathum - vouched by Schmidty
Jonathan - vouched by another player (Heinz). Would be dangerous for one Avatar to vouch for another early in game, too much time for it to go badly
Mr W - I don't think Clap was setting up a showdown with another Avatar
Swaggs - if Cronin is an Elemental then I think Swaggs is as well. I also got the impression that Clap wanted FUD around Swaggs
Cronin - playing cards very close to vest, but would have been hard to orchestrate his duke on Day 2 the way it went down
Path - provided info on powers being altered that has been confirmed by Cronin
Heinz - has vouched for another player, but that is about it

[hoopsguy]

I understand that. But the fact that nobody else has even talked about scanning you after day 1 just boggles my mind from a meta-standpoint.

Again, it would be convenient for me to have the vouch as an Elemental that would come from a scan. I'm all for it. But I don't get to choose that action, so I'm not sure how else to respond to this.

[path12]

OK, I gotta run. I'll check back when I get a chance.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Cronin - playing cards very close to vest, but would have been hard to orchestrate his duke on Day 2 the way it went down
Notwithstanding SnDvls possible duking, cronin was actually in a good position (for an avatar) where he could duke the vote to someone else and not look suspicious in doing so. Dunno that I'd read anything either way on the way that vote turned out.

[hoopsguy]

For the people who are here, how do you feel about my trust list - disregarding your place on it? Who do you have higher/lower and why?

[hoopsguy]

Notwithstanding SnDvls possible duking, cronin was actually in a good position (for an avatar) where he could duke the vote to someone else and not look suspicious in doing so. Dunno that I'd read anything either way on the way that vote turned out.

Right, I read through the Day 2 stuff looking to see if they tried to orchestrate so he could get to Duke the vote. But it was pretty damn chaotic at the end - that didn't have the look of a team of people trying to get the duke in order to build trust for their guy.

[Swaggs]

What do you mean by FUD?

[hoopsguy]

Also on Cronin, he had an early vote on Clap Day 2 and then pulled it later. That got me suspicious, as did the result of the duking. But he then came out gunning for Clap on Day 3 and never deviated when there certainly could have been opportunities to do so.

If he is playing as an Avatar, then he had to feel very good about their position to be able to sacrifice a player on Day 3 to take that route.

[hoopsguy]

What do you mean by FUD?

Fear
Uncertainty
Doubt

[Mr. Wednesday]

Also on Cronin, he had an early vote on Clap Day 2 and then pulled it later. That got me suspicious, as did the result of the duking. But he then came out gunning for Clap on Day 3 and never deviated when there certainly could have been opportunities to do so.

If he is playing as an Avatar, then he had to feel very good about their position to be able to sacrifice a player on Day 3 to take that route.

Good catch, and that substantially raises cronin in my estimation.

[Swaggs]

Well then... I certainly don't agree with you about Cronin. I don't see why him being an avatar or elemental saves or damns me. And, I certainly don't see me having any ties to Clap--I honestly thought he was pretty UTR for much of the game, until he kind of hung himself and got called on yesterday.

My trust list is me, kind of Lathum, and kind of JE. I think Heinz clearing him, makes it pretty likely that JE is good, regardless of Heinz's ties (ie: if Heinz was an avatar, he would know what JE is and may have just been pandering).

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't feel super-strongly about heinz, but I'm not sure I'll be unbusy around deadline and I need to get a vote in.

VOTE jeheinz72

[Swaggs]

Do you guys think there are any other humans out there?

[hoopsguy]

Well then... I certainly don't agree with you about Cronin. I don't see why him being an avatar or elemental saves or damns me. And, I certainly don't see me having any ties to Clap--I honestly thought he was pretty UTR for much of the game, until he kind of hung himself and got called on yesterday.

My trust list is me, kind of Lathum, and kind of JE. I think Heinz clearing him, makes it pretty likely that JE is good, regardless of Heinz's ties (ie: if Heinz was an avatar, he would know what JE is and may have just been pandering).

Actually, I think you are right to call the linkage into question as I re-evaluate it.

I was originally thinking that if Cronin was good, then you were picking between two good guys - Cronin and SnDvls - at the deadline. No incentive to switch as an Avatar, just let the dumb villagers eat their own and stay out of the way.

However, if Cronin was an Avatar then you could have switched the vote to him at the last minute and let him use the Duke. He gets some credit for being an Elemental, based on a traditional WW role, and you moved the vote to the Avatar who could protect himself (Cronin) instead of the Avatar who couldn't (Clap).

However, I forgot that SnDvls had indicated he was the Duke and that you were going to be his target. So you were definitely incented to not have him voted off the island on that day. Thus my linkage theory is damaged to the point of not using going forward.

[Lathum]

Do you guys think there are any other humans out there?

i doubt it

[hoopsguy]

Vote feels a little too easy on Heinz, but I think he and Path are the two best options and I don't think we are going to get a move on Path at this point. Frankly, I'm not sure that I want one as I don't feel strongly about one versus the other.

I just wish our candidate was around to have some discussion about his actions and his overall record this game.

VOTE JEHEINZ

[Swaggs]

I hate to pile on, but I don't see much else to go on. I'm really hoping we get some people scanned and cleared tonight, but right now no one is really off-limits for me, aside from maybe Lathum and JE.

Vote jeheinz

[Coffee Warlord]

Mr W 1
Jeheinz 5

[hoopsguy]

And the deadline comes meekly. Hope for the best here.

Jonathan - I'm hoping you are available for more commentary on Monday. I would say the same thing to Heinz if he does end up dodging this lynch through some power.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Gotta say that the unopposed run on Heinz leaves me wondering if we've got the right guy.

[Lathum]

Gotta say that the unopposed run on Heinz leaves me wondering if we've got the right guy.

who would you expect to oppose it?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Fair point, particularly if he turns out to be the last avatar.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, which I'd be mildly surprised if he is. I think we more likely were opposed by three avatars than two.

[Coffee Warlord]

All quiet on the front today, as you gather around the altar one more time. A gigantic Rhino appears behind you, staring down jeheinz, who appears in the center of the atlar. The Rhino looks at jeheinz. Jeheinz looks at the Rhino.

And one very fast, very big, very ugly Rhino charges into jeheinz at full tilt launching his battered body hundreds of yards into the air, finally landing with a satisfying crunch. The Rhino canters over, takes a bite out of heinz's leg, and vanishes, taking the corpse with him.

jeheinz was an Elemental.

Gravity 1, Elementals 0.

[claphamsa]

GO TEAM GO!

[hoopsguy]

I'll be interested in asking Heinz after the game if he had scheduling issues with weekend play. Maybe we would have gone another direction if he had been here to tell us what he did on Night 3, for example.

Oh well, lets see what the night term brings.

[Lathum]

hmmm, Could Path and Cronin both be Avatars?

[Swaggs]

Well, that was kind of a stab in the dark, but I was still hoping we would have nailed one.

I'm not so sure that there isn't just one more Avatar and one more human.

I'm curious (if there is anyone left), for those that have been able to act as a seer, did you get notification that your scan was an elemental or just that they were not avatars?

[claphamsa]

I'll be interested in asking Heinz after the game if he had scheduling issues with weekend play. Maybe we would have gone another direction if he had been here to tell us what he did on Night 3, for example.

Oh well, lets see what the night term brings.

FWIW hes never on on the weekend! I bet he didnt even know there was play during the weekend!

back to being dead :(

[hoopsguy]

Clap - Cronin (557), JE (584), Lathum (681), MrW (708), Schmidty (728)
MrW - Hoops (617), Heinz (621), Clap (707), Path (724)
The now-dead Saldana - Swaggs (569)

Final votes from Day 3:
MrW voters:
Heinz - dead Elemental
Clap - dead Avatar
Hoops
Path

I'm sure both of us will be around tomorrow so you guys can make it a him-or-me. Path, be ready for that argument because I'm absolutely going to be gunning for you.

If you aren't an Avatar, that would mean they made zero effort to save their own. I don't buy that at all.

[Lathum]

I gotta be honest I am at a complete loss right now.

[Mr. Wednesday]

At this point, the only people I trust with any degree of certainty are Lathum and JE, since both got vouches from known elementals. I think at least one and possibly two out of cronin, hoops, and path are avatars.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, and with Lathum, it helps that he switched off of me and onto clap on day 3. :)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Double dola, my cronin, hoops, path group erroneously omitted Swaggs.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Final votes from Day 3:
MrW voters:
Heinz - dead Elemental
Clap - dead Avatar
Hoops
Path

I'm sure both of us will be around tomorrow so you guys can make it a him-or-me. Path, be ready for that argument because I'm absolutely going to be gunning for you.

If you aren't an Avatar, that would mean they made zero effort to save their own. I don't buy that at all.

If we suppose, arguendo, that Swaggs is an avatar, perhaps the failure to make a late move to rescue clap goes along with the failure to move the vote off a now-dead player.

I'm not trying to argue Swaggs as an avatar, but I don't think the possibility can be excluded. The bad guys don't always play perfectly, sometimes things come up and they don't get something done by the deadline.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Quad dola, my action is in, and in either directing it appropriately or, in the alternative, directing it inappropriately, the fate of the game may be decided.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Quintuple dola, assuming I survive the night, I will explicitly state what action I took when I check in again.

[jeheinz72]

Crap, really bad timing for me to not be able to get on over the weekend. I'll take the heat for it, with me not on I can see where you guys would pile on.

Go Elementals!

[hoopsguy]

Hoping our moderator makes an appearance soon, as I had some stuff going on last night that I want to be able to discuss.

[hoopsguy]

Actually, we are now past the deadline so I think I should be safe in discussing it out in the open.

I had a night action last night and went to visit our good buddy Path. Hope that works out for Team Elemental in that:
1.) I picked an Avatar
2.) No one else messed with me to stop me from my purpose

[hoopsguy]

And I just got a PM with the results from my Night action. I suppose the right thing to do is to wait for results to go up before discussing anything further.

[Coffee Warlord]

A night of dark fortunes for some. You gather to find the charred remains of Mr. Wednesday, complete with a happy Rhino sitting next to it, roasting marshmellows. The now dead Elemental is yet another of your bretheren to fall in this horrid battle.

And before the Rhino scampers off, he looks up, calls for his buddy the Trout, and runs off. We be under the Sign of the Trout.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I had a night kill order in on Path. I was blocked from being able to act by someone.

VOTE PATH

[Lathum]

Well lets hope that person fesses up.

And how do you have a night kill?

[hoopsguy]

That was my Rhino power.

It is also why I was OK with the vote yesterday - I figured whichever of Path/Heinz was not getting the vote was getting a call from me.

Also, MrW seems to be a really curious kill given that there are a couple of trusted people who are still going to be around today and MrW was not universally trusted.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - I was only going to use the Night kill if we voted for an Elemental last night. I was willing to go 1:1 trade on those guys at this point in the game.

That option was taken away from me. Just to be clear, the power that was directed at me kept me from using any power last night. It was not, at least as I read it, someone acting as a bodyguard on Path. I was the target of a "negation" power which took precedence over my night kill power.

[hoopsguy]

As we are now under the sign of the Trout, I won't be able to do anything today. I used the Trout option to guard Lathum earlier.

Coffee, I'll ask the question in the generic form so you hopefully feel comfortable answering it publicly: Does a player who had a power negated retain use of the power if/when their day (for example, Rhino) rolls around again? Or is that power gone as if it had been used?

[Coffee Warlord]

If you receive a results PM that says you were utterly unable to use a power that night, you do NOT lose it. If it says stuff along the lines of "you do this, but it doesn't work"', that's a different case.

[st.cronin]

Ok, reading back through the thread, I see I need to clarify something once again:

I did not say my ability was BLOCKED on night 1. One of my abilities was ALTERED.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, what have you been up to night by night? Or are you still insisting on keeping your actions to yourself?

Night 1: power ALTERED by SnDvls. But what were you trying to do and what happened?
Night 2:
Night 3:
Night 4:

I think we are far enough along in the game where we need to have this kind of information to start making judgements on people.

[hoopsguy]

In the interests of full disclosure:

Night 1: sent Ethereal Servant to view SnDlvs. I saw him target Cronin with his power, altering his intent. No info on what Cronin was trying to do, did, or who he was targeting
Night 2: I did not use a power. I had an option to use a day power that would have allowed me to add another vote to someone. But I didn't feel like I had a good enough feel for the candidates that I wanted to hijack the process
Night 3: I protected Cronin, who was the target of someone trying to negate his powers (much like mine were negated last night)
Night 4: I attempted to night kill Path, but someone targeted me to keep me from using any powers

[st.cronin]

Nights 1 and 3 I protected myself. Day 2 I had the duke. Last night, keeping that one to myself for now.

[hoopsguy]

Er, Night 3: I protected Lathum (not Cronin)

I have Cronin on the mind, I guess, since I'm asking him for answers on this stuff. Well, technically I'm asking everyone for answers but he is in the thread at the moment.

[hoopsguy]

Nights 1 and 3 I protected myself. Day 2 I had the duke. Last night, keeping that one to myself for now.

So you had the same power for two different days? That sounds odd ... anyone else have duplicate powers?

Also, was your intent Night 1 to protect yourself? If so, what happened instead? If not, what were you initially trying to do?

[st.cronin]

Day 3, I used the ability that had been altered - it was originally something else, became a bodyguard action.

[st.cronin]

I originally had: 1 bodyguard action, 1 duke action, 1 uber-bodyguard action (would protect somebody from everything, not just attack), and 1 other action.

Night 1: bodyguarded myself, had my uber-bodyguard ability downgraded
Day 2: duked the vote
Night 3: bodyguarded myself again

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, that doesn't sound like what Path described. He definitely felt like he got a weaker power as a result of being "altered" on Night 1. I can't think of many powers that are weaker than a bodyguard option.

And you felt like you were the best candidate to guard on both of those days? I understand the "I only trust me" thought process, but the chances of you being a target on Night 3 seemed pretty damn slim from where I sat with Lathum and Schmidty as trusted players and you still having some suspicion (as most of us do).

[st.cronin]

I did get a weaker power. What I had was a bodyguard +. It was changed into a bodyguard.

I've actually never had the bodyguard role in any game, believe it or not. I used the most basic strategy: guard the one person I know is an elemental.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, did you use your power to negate me last night? If you say "no" to that, it still leaves you a fair amount of anonymity about what you did last night.

Also, will someone else be able to see the impact of your action? For example, Swaggs knew that he was negated but not that it was Lathum back at the start of Day 4 (I think). Or was it something that is a personal impact, such as bodyguard (no witness)?

[st.cronin]

No, I didn't do anything like what you described.

I don't know if anybody would have seen what I did or not, but I kind of doubt it.

[hoopsguy]

See, that presents a challenge. You've had four powers, three of them night powers. And none of them can be validated by another player.

In my case, I've had two powers that have been validated by the target (SnDvls and Lathum) and a third that was blocked - the person who blocked me should be able to validate doing so if they are so inclined. This is why I'm having a hard time trusting people who have a lack of verifiable actions. Your Duke is verifiable, but it is a daytime power and doesn't mean anything in terms of tracking you at night when you could be completing kills if you are an Avatar.

I think there are other people who merit at least as much scrutiny (Path for sure, Swaggs to a lesser extent) but they aren't here to answer questions at the moment.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, did your power last night help you build trust for anyone?

[st.cronin]

See, that presents a challenge. You've had four powers, three of them night powers. And none of them can be validated by another player.

In my case, I've had two powers that have been validated by the target (SnDvls and Lathum) and a third that was blocked - the person who blocked me should be able to validate doing so if they are so inclined. This is why I'm having a hard time trusting people who have a lack of verifiable actions. Your Duke is verifiable, but it is a daytime power and doesn't mean anything in terms of tracking you at night when you could be completing kills if you are an Avatar.

I think there are other people who merit at least as much scrutiny (Path for sure, Swaggs to a lesser extent) but they aren't here to answer questions at the moment.

If you feel you want to vote for me, go ahead. I think that would be a pretty far-out choice, though.

How did Mr. Wednesday get off the hook yesterday? I thought for sure he would be the runaway choice.

[hoopsguy]

MrW - the only way it made sense to go after him is if you bought into the idea that it was Avatar vs Avatar the previous day. After re-reading through the posts I didn't feel that was the case.

Easy to say now, as he is listed as Elemental upon his death. But if you look at my posts yesterday it is pretty clear I was targeting Heinz/Path with Swaggs as a further out 3rd option based on the voting records.

[hoopsguy]

While we are on the topic of MrW, why do you suppose that the Avatars would kill him when there are two trusted players out there in Lathum and Jonathan?

Also, you didn't answer the question about whether your power last night helped you in building trust towards any of the remaining players.

[Lathum]

I think the Mr. Wed kill was bacause the odds of him being guarded were slim

[Coffee Warlord]

To add one thing to the day notice.

The spirit of SnDvls was seen briefly during the night. His spirit was in horrid condition, looking even more battered and beaten than he did in life.

[hoopsguy]

I think the Mr. Wed kill was bacause the odds of him being guarded were slim

But the previous night they took the most likely target in Schmidty.

Lathum, do you have anything to report from last night? Are you willing to play along with the posting of actions for each day/night?

[Lathum]

But the previous night they took the most likely target in Schmidty.

Lathum, do you have anything to report from last night? Are you willing to play along with the posting of actions for each day/night?

sure. I had nothing for last night.

Night 1 I used my ability to protect myself.
Night 2 I used my ability that if I was killed I would be reincarnated
Night 3 I used my ability to mess with Swaggs

[hoopsguy]

And you are keeping N4 under wraps as well?

[Lathum]

And you are keeping N4 under wraps as well?

sure. I had nothing for last night.



--

[hoopsguy]

Er, reading is hard.

Just didn't have an attractive option for the night, or banking it?

[Lathum]

didn't have an attractice option

[hoopsguy]

1) Barkeep49 - Death by A Very Unhappy Ball of Cheese. (Elemental)
2) hoopsguy
3) claphamsa - Eaten by a Trout. (Avatar of Fear)
4) PurdueBrad - Death by Avatar. And Calamari. (Elemental)
5) path12
6) Jonathan Ezarik
7) saldana - Death by Athlete's Foot. (Human)
8) Lathum
9) Passacaglia - Death by Squid Molestation (Elemental)
10) Swaggs
11) st.cronin
12) jeheinz72 - Death by Rhino charge. Ow. (Elemental)
13) Schmidty - Death by Goo (Elemental)
14) Mr. Wednesday - Death by the TPS Report (Elemental)
15) SnDvls - Death by Exploding Yak (Elemental)

Trying to figure out what we can read from these deaths. PurdueBrad's is clear that he was killed by an Avatar. We know at one point that Saldana was in the game as a 3rd faction but have no idea if he could kill.

Here are the night kills:
Night 1 - PurdueBrad, clearly identified as Avatar
Night 2 - Barkeep, "cheeseball"?
Night 3 - Schmidty "goo"
Night 4 - MrW "TPS report"

Also, Saldana was a day kill - "Athlete's Foot". Just trying to see if we can find anything about the Avatar's through this information. I'm really perplexed by the MrW night kill move.

[hoopsguy]

Best guess I can figure on MrW is that they were concerned about why he forced the Rhino event, and feared he had some kind of power that was threatening to them. I think that makes more sense than "low probability of being guarded" when they took the trusted guy one night earlier.

[Swaggs]

My vote will, unless someone comes out and pins someone else, be for hoops or path.

Hoops looks eager to throw suspicion around today, which smells of desperate wolf. But, I've also had similar feelings in this game, because I honestly feel like accusing most everyone left, so that makes the behavior a little more reasonable.

Path has been totally under the radar, as usual, the entire game. He is one of two (if I'm not mistaken) people that voted for MrW over Clap that are still alive. Plus, I still remember killing us during hoops' super hero game. :)

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, would you be willing to give an action recap for Day/Night 1-4?

I would agree with the strategy of voting for either me or Path today. I just hope that you make the right decision between the two of us.

My vote is on Path and I would need a compelling reason to change it. But with that in mind I still want us to get as much information as possible out there to help make decisions the rest of the way, be it night actions or votes tomorrow. So, yeah, I'm probing hard today.

[Swaggs]

Hoops, with all due respect, I'm not sure it is wise to do a recap in this game. With the powers aligned with the days, I'm not sure we want to hand that info (and who they are tied to) over to the wolves.

[Swaggs]

That said, I'm not opposed to hearing from you and path, because I feel like one of you is, almost certainly, an avatar.

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, I've posted mine already. If you have any questions for me I'll answer them.

I do think it makes sense to put this information out because I'm concerned with the people whose actions are unverified and unknown. Maybe I partially feel this way because people have been able to vouch for two of my night actions and someone could (if they were so inclined) vouch for inhibiting me last night from acting.

[hoopsguy]

In the interests of full disclosure:

Night 1: sent Ethereal Servant to view SnDlvs. I saw him target Cronin with his power, altering his intent. No info on what Cronin was trying to do, did, or who he was targeting
Night 2: I did not use a power. I had an option to use a day power that would have allowed me to add another vote to someone. But I didn't feel like I had a good enough feel for the candidates that I wanted to hijack the process
Night 3: I protected Lathum, who was the target of someone trying to negate his powers (much like mine were negated last night)
Night 4: I attempted to night kill Path, but someone targeted me to keep me from using any powers

Here is a re-post of my actions, correcting the error I had from Night 3 earlier (I think it was post 909 or something like that).

[hoopsguy]

Night 1 - SnDvls confirmed my action (recall the Ardent Enthusiast conversation from that day)

Night 3 - Lathum confirmed my action (not that it was me, but I posted details about it that he confirmed)

Night 4 - someone should be able to confirm blocking me if they aren't an Avatar

Let's see if Path is willing to provide similar disclosure.

FWIW, you (Swaggs) didn't vote for Clap either time but you didn't have an impact vote on Day 3 as you left it on Saldana. I also am pretty sure you have your own victory condition related to eliminating humans and think that is more likely to be an Elemental role than an Avatar based on the previous Coffee Warlord game.

[st.cronin]

2) hoopsguy
5) path12
6) Jonathan Ezarik
8) Lathum
10) Swaggs
11) st.cronin

If there are two avatars, which I think is likely, we need to hit one today. Can somebody remind me: Did Jonathan E clear jeheinz, or was it the other way around?

[hoopsguy]

Heinz cleared Jonathan E. I can find the post if needed.

[hoopsguy]

An Elemental should have three people in their circle of trust: themself, Lathum, and Jonathan. This should be valid, barring a conversion or a "cunning wolf" role.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - that information also assumes that the views are "non-Avatar". It doesn't necessarily mean they are Elemental. I would ask for clarification from the people who completed the views, but they are dead (Schmidty and Heinz).

[st.cronin]

Ok, and Schmidty cleared Lathum.

That leaves 1 or 2 avatars from: hoopsguy, path12, swaggs. The vote will probably include me as well.

I still trust path12, due to him having the exact same experience as me night 1. That may prove ill-founded, but its more than I have on the other 2. The saldana/Swaggs thing makes me uneasy, but I'm not sure if it makes me want to vote for Swaggs or not.

[Swaggs]

stcronin, can you recap the reason that you have path in your CoT?

[hoopsguy]

Oh, by the way, I trust Lathum. Other than that, I'm not sure what to do as far as a vote.

Dola.

And yes, I did spy on Lathum last night, and was given the STRONG impression that he was good. I also saw what power he was using.

I can honestly say that I don't know what an Ethereal Spirit is, so I guess. My abilities are based upon what the daily sign is (i.e. Yak, Squid, etc.). Yesterday was Squid, which allowed me to see everything a person did at night.

If that makes you trust me, awesome (if you're good). If not, oh well. I don't know what else to say.

I don't know if there are avatar-shades and such, but I can say last nigh that I scanned Jonathan Ezerik and he came back Elemental.

Here are all the posts that I was able to locate on the views of Lathum by Schmidty and Jonathan by Heinz.

[st.cronin]

Night 1, SnDvls performed an action on me. This action was very accurately described by path as something that happened to him, as well, that same night. It was never revealed who did that to path.

Now, path could be bad if:

1. Avatars have the same abilities as elementals, and somebody who is dead did something to him. Based on clap's play, it seems unlikely that avatars and elementals ahve the same sort of abilities. But, I'm really not sure - the opening post describes them as "scary things" that can do "bad stuff," or something.

2. Alternately, path, as an avatar, may have had some ability to read my pm (or SnDvls pm, I suppose).

[st.cronin]

Hm, that's actually not a very convincing clear of Lathum.

[Swaggs]

FWIW, I also trust Lathum, a bit.

I know he was not the killer on Night 3 (I believe), because he cast a block on me and quickly fessed up to it.

[Lathum]

Hm, that's actually not a very convincing clear of Lathum.

huh?

I am as cleared as cleared can be.

I would chose Path at this point but I wanna review some posts from swaggs

[hoopsguy]

I can also clear Lathum on Night 3 as I was protecting him.

I agree with Lathum, insofar as the only case I can build for him is either as a cunning wolf or a convert. We don't know that either mechanic is in the game, so at this point I don't think he is a high-value vote.

[Swaggs]

I'll be around for a few hours before the deadline (and then be gone at the deadline, as I have to pickup my wife from the airport). So, I'll at least have a chance for some dialogue after work tonight.

Right now, I'm still focussed in on hoops and path. I'm hoping we get to hear from Path and JE by the time I get back.

[Swaggs]

I'm guessing no conversions, since there have been kills every night. If there was a conversion and there are three avatars, we are probably screwed since they can vote together today and probably get someone to pile on/screw up (since there isn't a perfectly clear candidate at this point).

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, do you have any questions for me? I understand that you want to evaluate me vs Path in context of both of us replying, but since we are both here I'm willing to answer anything in particular about me that is bothering you.

[Swaggs]

Swaggs, do you have any questions for me? I understand that you want to evaluate me vs Path in context of both of us replying, but since we are both here I'm willing to answer anything in particular about me that is bothering you.

Not really, you have been pretty forthcoming.

I just feel like you or path are very, very likely to be an avatar based on that vote with Clap. Cronin feels a little trust towards path, but you have been more transparent with your actions, in my opinion.

I want to hear from the few guys that haven't checked in yet, but I will be voting for one of you two when I get home, unless JE names someone else that he IDed last night.

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, did you block me last night? Just trying to work my way through the list of people who are denying it ...

[Lathum]

I'm guessing no conversions, since there have been kills every night. If there was a conversion and there are three avatars, we are probably screwed since they can vote together today and probably get someone to pile on/screw up (since there isn't a perfectly clear candidate at this point).

unless Saldana had a night kill

[hoopsguy]

To add one thing to the day notice.

The spirit of SnDvls was seen briefly during the night. His spirit was in horrid condition, looking even more battered and beaten than he did in life.


If someone is actuallly talking to the spirit of SnDvls please ask them about me - I know he trusted me and that he can vouch for me sending the Ethereal Servant to look at him on Night 1. That stuff is all in the thread, but I would expect that SnDvls would reiterate the same.

If someone isn't performaing a seance (sp?) with him then I have no idea what this means.

[Lathum]

Hoops, how many Avatars do you think are left?

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, I'm not sure. I would guess two (3 seems like right starting number with 15 players) but maybe it is one and another independent?

Swaggs has seemed intent on finding Humans, so the fact that he keeps asking about this makes me believe that there is another one out there. If that is the case, 1 Avatar and 1 Human adds up for me.

[hoopsguy]

I believe I have the only vote in at this point. Vote count as of Post #961:

Path - Hoops (901)

[Lathum]

ok, and you feel Path is the Avatar?

[hoopsguy]

Yeah, as we are the only two left who voted for MrW over Clap in their Avatar/Elemental showdown. I know I'm an Elemental, so if Clap is an Elemental then it means that the Avatars made no effort to save their own in a 5-4 vote.

I recognize that Path can/will use the exact same argument to come after me.

Here are the potential flaws with the theory, such as it is:
- Swaggs voted Saldana, never came back
- Cronin votes Clap, didn't come back late

So I suppose you could argue that one of these two are an Avatar, but I don't think that is anywhere close to the simplest explanation. The simplest explanation is that Path is an Avatar, which is why I have my vote on him.

[hoopsguy]

Above - "if Clap is an Elemental" should read "if Path is an Elemental"

[Lathum]

Well if Path is the sole Avatar, and you blocked him last night then how was there a kill?

[Lathum]

wait, I read something wrong

[hoopsguy]

No, I was blocked from killing him. I had every intention of not getting into this discussion today because I would take care of matters myself.

I most definitely did not block him.

[Lathum]

Cronin, do you have the ability to scan another player?

[hoopsguy]

Still haven't heard from either Path or Jonathan. No word from Jonathan since, what, Friday? This is a pretty frustrating part of werewolf - when you invest a week to get into end-mode and then have the game slow to a crawl from lack of participation.

[Lathum]

Hoops, do you remember if Cronin has mentioned scanning anyone this game?

[hoopsguy]

I originally had: 1 bodyguard action, 1 duke action, 1 uber-bodyguard action (would protect somebody from everything, not just attack), and 1 other action.

Night 1: bodyguarded myself, had my uber-bodyguard ability downgraded
Day 2: duked the vote
Night 3: bodyguarded myself again

Lathum, I don't recall Cronin saying he viewed anyone. Here is what he reported this morning as his actions for the first three days. He did not want to share his activity for last night.

[path12]

Sorry for not being around, I'm about 18 hours into a 102 fever that judging by the rest of my family has another 10-12 hours to go. I really have no idea what's going on, and if I need to be replaced I understand, but I'm not gonna have a chance to catch up for awhile.

Sorry again.

[hoopsguy]

Path, you could make it easier for the rest of us - and not have to catch up much - by just confessing you are an Avatar :)

Sorry you aren't feeling well. I just kicked stomach flu (that travelled around our household) last week.

If you are going to play through, what did you do each of the last four nights? And are you as convinced I'm an Avatar as I am that you are one?

[st.cronin]

Night 1, SnDvls performed an action on me. This action was very accurately described by path as something that happened to him, as well, that same night. It was never revealed who did that to path.

Now, path could be bad if:

1. Avatars have the same abilities as elementals, and somebody who is dead did something to him. Based on clap's play, it seems unlikely that avatars and elementals ahve the same sort of abilities. But, I'm really not sure - the opening post describes them as "scary things" that can do "bad stuff," or something.

2. Alternately, path, as an avatar, may have had some ability to read my pm (or SnDvls pm, I suppose).

No comment on this from anybody yet?

[Lathum]

I think Cronin is the avatar

VOTE ST.CRONIN

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, here are my thoughts on the above:

1. It would have to be equally true if I was an Avatar as I've demonstrated multiple powers that have been validated by people - N1 w/SnDvls and N3 w/Lathum. I accept that this is part of the fabric of the rules.

2. I don't think we need to go down #2 since I agree with #1


The only part that bothers me about #1 in the case of Path is that no one has copped to using their power on Night 1 against Path.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, does your vote for Cronin mean that you think both Path and I are Elementals (or at least not Avatars)?

You might be right on Cronin, but I'm looking to see you spell out your argument why this is the best way to go with today's vote.

[Lathum]

Because Cronin ALWAYS assumes I am a wolf. Always.

He has completly left me alone this game, so he must be a wolf.

[st.cronin]

Cronin, here are my thoughts on the above:

1. It would have to be equally true if I was an Avatar as I've demonstrated multiple powers that have been validated by people - N1 w/SnDvls and N3 w/Lathum. I accept that this is part of the fabric of the rules.

2. I don't think we need to go down #2 since I agree with #1


The only part that bothers me about #1 in the case of Path is that no one has copped to using their power on Night 1 against Path.

It could easily have been PurdueBrad who targeted path N1.

[hoopsguy]

Sure, and it could have been Swaggs - who hasn't said much at all about what he has done. Or Saldana, or Heinz, or probably another couple of people who are dead and haven't left information.

Either way, I think point #1 is probably accurate for the Avatars. We don't have a lot of information from Clap to support the theory, but I've been working with this assumption for a little while now.

Hopefully not just because it makes it easier for me to build a case against Path ... I try pretty hard not to get blindly locked into a direction in these games, sometimes more successfully than others.

[st.cronin]

JE, sounds like you didn't get the cool elemental powers, as mine are entirely fish-based. I'm sure from this information that you must, in fact, be an avatar. I'll be voting for you as soon as I'm allowed to do so.

Actually, not so much. Just wanted something different to say than "elemental checking in".

Is there any value at this point in having some conversation about abilities? I honestly don't know as I read my PM if I'm a standard elemental, or if we are all going to have unique abilities. I suspect the latter, but figured I would put this out for some Day 1 group-think.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

This is just an odd post, made on day 1.

[st.cronin]

Sure, and it could have been Swaggs - who hasn't said much at all about what he has done. Or Saldana, or Heinz, or probably another couple of people who are dead and haven't left information.


Then I guess I don't understand why you are bothered that nobody has copped to doing it.

[st.cronin]

I haven't responded to Lathum's point yet because, quite frankly, I don't know how to. He hasn't gotten any heat from anybody in this game - the groupthink has been that Schmidty cleared him.

[Lathum]

I haven't responded to Lathum's point yet because, quite frankly, I don't know how to.

lol.

this made me laugh out loud.

I <3 Cronin

[hoopsguy]

I'm bothered because there was all kinds of time for people to admit to doing it if they were an Elemental. It would have helped us build some level of trust as a verifiable action.

So just to set the record straight - you are voting for me based on my variation of the "villager checking in" e-mail? Or the fact that I thought early in the game that there might be some benefit to talking about our abilities in a general sense? Because if you want to construct an argument for me that seems like a bizarre place to start.

[hoopsguy]

I'll give you another reason why Lathum is likely to be a good guy, fwiw. He doesn't come after me early in games as a bad guy. But he definitely was chasing after me the first couple of days. Now it is entirely possible that he has made some adjustments to his playing style (this is not the first game where I've mentioned this trait) but that made me feel pretty good about Lathum even before Schmidty cleared him.

And, as long as I'm talking meta-game, I feel very nervous about Cronin being around with me when we are down to the final six. I've played this version of werewolf out before as a villager and he was a wolf that time. He doesn't have any qualms about leaving me around in games when he is a bad guy, something that is not universally true for FOFC players/wolves.

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #987:
Path - Hoops (901)
Cronin - Lathum (976)
Hoop - Cronin (982)

[hoopsguy]

Final note - I'll likely have limited availability this evening as I'll be Christmas shopping for the next couple of hours.

If I don't make it back before the deadline I hope I'm not returning to find myself lynched. I'm not too worried about this happening if there is only one Avatar, but if there are two then it could get pretty dicey. I hope that people will strongly consider voting for Path and not allowing the vote to get split among three candidates (as it is right now).

[st.cronin]

I'm bothered because there was all kinds of time for people to admit to doing it if they were an Elemental. It would have helped us build some level of trust as a verifiable action.

So just to set the record straight - you are voting for me based on my variation of the "villager checking in" e-mail? Or the fact that I thought early in the game that there might be some benefit to talking about our abilities in a general sense? Because if you want to construct an argument for me that seems like a bizarre place to start.

I have to vote for somebody, and I can't bring myself to vote for any of the other players.

[Swaggs]

Well crap.

Nothing provided from Path (BTW, sorry you are not feeling well) or JE?

[Swaggs]

Lathum, can you come out and say if you IDed st cronin or not?

I'm not trying to come to cronin's defense or draw attention to myself, but I'm a little nervous about diverging from path or hoops (based solely on the Clap vote).

[hoopsguy]

Christmas shopping sucks - I'm not finding much in the way of deals and money is a bit tight. Oh well.

I've got about a 10-15 minute window before I'm on the move again. Any last minute questions?

[st.cronin]

Just one. I have good reasons for not voting for everybody but hoops and Swaggs. I know you don't want me voting for you, but can you make a case for or against Swaggs?

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, for what it is worth I'm getting a fair amount paranoid about how this is going to shake out at the end. I won't be around at the deadline and this smells like a scenario that could end very badly for us with a late vote switch.

That said, I'm not sure who I more worried about sniping me - you or Lathum. Different reasons for each, I guess. But it is frustrating having one of the guys I do strongly feel is on my team (Jonathan) turn into a no-show. It really does change the dynamic down the stretch.

[hoopsguy]

Just one. I have good reasons for not voting for everybody but hoops and Swaggs. I know you don't want me voting for you, but can you make a case for or against Swaggs?

Well, you are asking me to make a case against a guy who I think is probably my 3rd choice to be an Avatar in a game where I'm just about sure there are not that many Avatars. But sure, here it is.

- hasn't published his actions all game long
- almost certainly has some agenda that is tied to Humans. I don't know for sure what this means in terms of Elemental/Avatar, but have been giving him the benefit of the doubt

[Swaggs]

Hoops, I'm really not sure to go. I feel like you are trying to help us win, so I'm hesitant to vote for you, but cronin is on you and path will presumably be on you. Looks like cronin is not interested in path, so he is stuck between me and you.

I will let you guys know that I was in contact with SnDvls last night. He was able to pass a power to me last night. That is what I was doing last night, if it helps.

[st.cronin]

Swaggs did you initiate the action with Sn?

[Swaggs]

Yes, I did.

[hoopsguy]

Last note, for what it is worth. I've got two powers left since Warlord's explanation about blocked actions applies to me from last night (my interpretation, probably should check to be 100% sure).

Rhino - going to get to complete a night kill
Yak - add a vote to one player

Both of those could potentially be very useful if we make it to tomorrow. Particularly the vote, as I'm not certain we would have wiggle room to make it through two bad lynches. But I'm going to be an ally that the other Elementals want to have on any day other than Trout/Squid.