2008 Financials Thread

[Flasch186]

I wanted to start a thread where we could all banter about the market but somewhat keep a running calendar or take on things. Perhaps people will participate or not but this could be a very volatile year and hopefully a profitable one.

Of course everyone do your own due diligence before buying or selling, anything.


Jan. 22:

What a wild day. After overnight selloffs in Asia and Europe our Fed opens us up with a .75 cut in the Fed Funds rate and a slight cut in the discount rate. We open the day off by almost 500 points and pare those losses all day before finishing off down 128 or roughly 1.06%. Bush meets with Congressional leaders and they talk about getting some sort of stimulation package to his desk within 3 weeks but the streets view these moves with skepticism. From the cut and talk the beaten up financial sector (GS, BAC, MER) moves up and the retailers try to fight through (WMT, TGT, BBBY). Tech stocks (GOOG, AAPL, CSCO, MSFT) get haircuts throughout the day. The talk [cnbc] is varied throughout the day ranging from warnings to stay on the sideline, to moderate bottom feeding, to exuberance about a capitulation signaling a bottom (references to the VIX volatility ratings spike).

After hours Apple (AAPL) reports profits that ring true (somewhat) but paint a darker outlook going forward. The stock sells off after hours taking other horseman stocks with it, Google (GOOG), Rimm (RIMM), Microsoft (MSFT).

Tomorrow looks to be a rough day but many people will be calling technical bottoms and trying to create a bottom. Hopefully one of these rings true as a bottom and we can see some build, otherwise we could see more losses ahead. Anyone looking to short the market could look at some ETF's that do so like these listed here:

http://tradermike.net/2007/03/list_of_inverse_short_bear_etfs_/

BTW I own 100 shares of SDS and 100 shares of CSCO as of today.

[NoSkillz]

Great idea for a thread! There haven't been an awful lot of posts made on this site regarding the market or finances so I wondered if I was the only stock enthusiast here.

I had to deal with the market crashing yesterday while the American markets were closed for Martin Luther King Day. That's because the majority of my money is in the Canadian market.

The TSX was down over 600 points yesterday, close to 5% and I personally lost over 7% in my portfolio, which is heavily weighted in mining, materials and tech. My bad days are almost always worse than the index but my good days are always better than the TSX. I have some pretty volatile holdings but I'm comfortable with the daily ups and downs that it brings me.

I've always felt that as long as you have your money in good, profitable companies, you'll do fine in the end. However, you have to always keep your ears and eyes open and I do hours of research every week on my personal holdings and other targets.

Thankfully, with the US lowering rates by 3/4 of a point and Canada lowering theirs by 1/4 point, the TSX was able to bounce back in style today. The index was up over 500 points today and my own portfolio was up around 6.5% on the day so I'm almost back to where I ended last week.

Today was a great day :)

I own a couple of stocks that also trade in the US and if we ever discuss specifics about which equities each of us own, I'd be happy to share what I own and why.

[Flasch186]

please do reference stocks and such but I would be careful to infer that someone should buy or sell it but please do reference as it will help paint a fuller picture for those who are just touching this stuff for the first time.

[st.cronin]

I don't own any individual stocks anymore. I am in a few funds, a couple that are straight bond funds, and a couple that are more diversified.

I think even after the correction to the tech bubble in 01 that stocks are in general a little bit overpriced in terms of p/e ratio.

[DaddyTorgo]

Legendary Funds Manager Julian Robertson Predicts Utter Global Collapse Stemming From Bursting of Property Bubble

In a recent interview on CNBC with Ron Insana, one of the "old-timer" funds manager, Julian Robertson, predicted "utter global collapse" as a consequence of the bursting of the world-wide property bubble.

Often called "Never Been Wrong Robertson", the former head of Tiger Management (once the largest hedge fund in the world), is extremely worried about the speculative bubble in real estate.

Specifically, he is very worried about a world that is sustained by American consumer spending which is in turn 1/4 sustained by a property bubble. He predicts that 20 million people could lose their homes once the property bubble bursts.

Even more worrisome, he thinks central banks around the globe out of desperation will try to re-inflate the world economy with more liquidity that will create an inflationary spiral unseen in the economic history of mankind. "Where does it end?” Insana asked Robertson. "Utter global collapse," he answered. But not just economic collapse ... collapse of epic proportions. Collapse and disintegration of all infrastructure, including government. Inflation will run into the double and triple digits. "Food production will fall. People will be carrying around U.S .
dollars in wheelbarrows like Germany," he said.

There will be "total collapse of public infrastructure. Total collapse of medical care systems. All public pension plans, Social Security will collapse. All corporate pension plans will collapse."

"The American consumer is effectively now supporting the rest of the planet," he continued. "Consumption rates in all other nations are falling, have fallen to the point that the tax revenues to governments, that the business and industries those nation states are providing is now a net negative number relative to total debt service and public cost, that this exists in virtually every nation state on the planet now."

And for much of this "doom", interestingly, he blames the Bush-Cheney "regime". "They have now consolidated power and money on the planet to the maximum extent possible. The planet's net liquidity (that is its net free cash flow) is now a negative number. The planet is not simply sinking into a sea of red ink; it is already sunk. The people just don't realize it yet," he said.

According to Robertson, "the Bush-Cheney regime is preparing the nation for transition from democracy into dictatorship because a dictatorship will be necessary to control, in 5 years time, food and water riots." He said "the federal government, that part of Patriot II Act, the internal exile that the government is going to have to build now huge detention compounds on federal lands, probably in the West where the land is available, to potentially house 50 million or more citizens that will be in financial ruin."

In 10 years time, whoever is left will be effectively starting again, he said. "More importantly, and I'm trying to think how we imply this or how we express this to the people, what extraordinary times we are living in and how the destruction of the planet has been engineered by the Bushonian Cabal from 1980 to 1992, and then from 2001 to present, which has effectively destroyed the economic liquidity of the planet," he said.

Robertson ended the interview by saying that he hopes he is not alive to see this. "The lucky ones are the ones who are my age now," he said.






note: I'm just posting this, not saying I agree. But it's an...interesting, slightly amusing read from a very respected (obviously) person

[st.cronin]

He sounds like a fun guy.

[DaddyTorgo]

He sounds like a fun guy.

that was our comment around the office when we got that from one of our clients.

[MikeVic]

As I've stated in some other thread here, I just started with financial stuff. I just have one mutual fund that's been sucking ass since a couple of weeks into ownership. Yesterday was bad, and I'm hoping it slowly reaches up to the point where it's even... I just don't trust this thing. I'd like to see some kind of gain after a few months nstead of hundreds of dollars of loss. :p

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

note: I'm just posting this, not saying I agree. But it's an...interesting, slightly amusing read from a very respected (obviously) person

Oh wow.

This Julian Robertson?

hxxp://http://money.cnn.com/2000/03/30/mutualfunds/q_funds_tiger/

[DaddyTorgo]

Oh wow.

This Julian Robertson?

hxxp://http://money.cnn.com/2000/03/30/mutualfunds/q_funds_tiger/

yep. The one and only julian robertson.

not to name drop at all, but one of our clients is hmm...on a first-name basis with him I guess you'd say

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

DT what do you do, if you don't mind me asking?

[DaddyTorgo]

DT what do you do, if you don't mind me asking?

I work for a startup...well I guess we're still considered a startup...been around 2 years at this point though...3rd party marketing firm.

essentially we are the outsourced marketing+sales arm for investment managers (generally new/smaller ones). We call on institutions, consultants, public funds, etc., and introduce our clients, try to raise assets for them.

[Marc Vaughan]

Can I ask who/what you chaps use to buy shares through? ... I'm considering purchasing some more shares having jumped out of the area when I moved to America.

[Flasch186]

I use Bank Of America.

[molson]

note: I'm just posting this, not saying I agree. But it's an...interesting, slightly amusing read from a very respected (obviously) person

Definitely an interesting read....until the part where he basically blamed the future collapse of civilization on the Bush family. It kind of sounds like he's taking a long-shot chance at immortality as the "one who saw it".

[Flasch186]

Jan. 23rd -

Looking like another wild day. Down 200+ now paring those back an hour later. Talk about volatility. The talk now is that the FED may have used all of it's bullets and washed out its credibility. Wont know until they meet next week. My advice - No need to try to pick a bottom.

[Fidatelo]

note: I'm just posting this, not saying I agree. But it's an...interesting, slightly amusing read from a very respected (obviously) person

I understand that this man was apparently quite good at what he did once upon a time, and I am personally of the opinion that things will get pretty bad for North America sometime in the next 10-20 years if the U.S. doesn't seriously straighten out, but these are the ramblings of a madman. Detention Compounds? Just because the people can't afford their homes, doesn't mean the homes don't exist. I suspect the government might just forgive debts (even if just on a temporary basis) before they dumped 50 million people into compounds out west.

[Flasch186]

I moved off of my short position (SDS) as I think we may see a short term "Dead Cat Bounce" when the FED meets next week. I rotated into Wal-Mart (WMT) as it may be the only retailer who truly provides the lowest possible price for those consumer staples. I do not believe in this Financials rally (BAC, JPM, MER) at this time. It will come eventually but I don't want to be the first one to dip a toe in and get it lopped off.

[DaddyTorgo]

I understand that this man was apparently quite good at what he did once upon a time, and I am personally of the opinion that things will get pretty bad for North America sometime in the next 10-20 years if the U.S. doesn't seriously straighten out, but these are the ramblings of a madman. Detention Compounds? Just because the people can't afford their homes, doesn't mean the homes don't exist. I suspect the government might just forgive debts (even if just on a temporary basis) before they dumped 50 million people into compounds out west.

i agree. that was the part i found the most...hmm..."interesting" shall we say?

[Fighter of Foo]

The guy's a hedge fund manager. The stuff they write when things are going well isn't much different.

That said, there is some systemic risk of banks and other finance companies going under. No one can say how much because I don't think anyone has a clue as to the amount of shitty loans and derivative-based crap is out there that's going to get squeezed soon. It's musical chairs for billions of dollars.

[Masked]

It's musical chairs for trillions of dollars.

Fixed.

Estimates of the size of the derivatives market ranges well into the 10's of trillions of dollars.

[Fidatelo]

Oh I agree, there's a shit-storm coming, no doubt. I just think this guy is either whacked in the head or got extremely carried away in hyperbole, because there is no way 50 million Americans are going to hang out in detention camps in Montana while close to 50 million homes sit vacant due to a collapse of the financial systems.

[Butter]

I should've pulled my money temporarily from all of my stock based mutual funds when the market hit 14,000. I was so close to doing it, but I held back. Now, I just leave them in for the long haul, I guess. No use selling at the bottom.

[Flasch186]

The sell SDS move and buy WMT move seemed to play out for today but I'd like to carry WMT beyond the FED meeting next week.

[Flasch186]

Jan. 23rd 2:30pm:

What a whipsaw of a day. Open up down 200+, pare those losses back and then retest and break the lows before charging back up near 12,000 right now. Things are not for the feint of heart. Notables, Google down 50+ at one point, Apple down 25+ at one point, Bank of America up 5%, etc.

[NoSkillz]

Jan. 23rd 2:30pm:

Things are not for the feint of heart.

You've got that right!

The market has been in the toilet all day in Canada, with the TSX index off over 220 points at the moment (-1.74%).

Tech, mining and minerals are getting throttled so my portfolio is suffering quite substantially.

I own some Research in Motion stock (RIM - TSX) and a couple of fertilizer stocks (POT - TSX & AGU - TSX)...all three are getting destroyed today after making significant comebacks yesterday. Volatile doesn't even begin to describe it!

All three are solid, profitable companies with good stories and I'm not worried long-term about their viability. So they are turning into long-term holds from the looks of things.

[Flasch186]

You've got that right!

The market has been in the toilet all day in Canada, with the TSX index off over 220 points at the moment (-1.74%).

Tech, mining and minerals are getting throttled so my portfolio is suffering quite substantially.

I own some Research in Motion stock (RIM - TSX) and a couple of fertilizer stocks (POT - TSX & AGU - TSX)...all three are getting destroyed today after making significant comebacks yesterday. Volatile doesn't even begin to describe it!

All three are solid, profitable companies with good stories and I'm not worried long-term about their viability. So they are turning into long-term holds from the looks of things.

some would argue that the tech names and ag. names are largely momentum plays and that may be turning over or rotating.

[Young Drachma]

Can I ask who/what you chaps use to buy shares through? ... I'm considering purchasing some more shares having jumped out of the area when I moved to America.


I have an etrade account.

[Young Drachma]

Yeesh, the little ditty (http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=KdKfCkBiDnOjFoKaMaKiAbDc) I use to monitor stocks is sure taking a tumble. Looks like I need to go throw and drop some stuff to stop the bleeding.

http://marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/nph-pvs?1&D&MO_Fund_Graph&500,300&T&X&Y&fundKey1=A3A52A183DE95EA0C0A80132&maxDays=30

[Flasch186]

4:00 pm

today ends up being the best day for the S&P and markets for '08. An unbelievable swing of over 450 points throughout the day hinged on rumors of a bailout for Bond insurers, rumors of foreign lowering of rates, and some technical talk of a building bottom. Bears would argue "Sell the rally" Bulls would say that we are creating the bottom and can run from here. Regardless we should see more volatility leading right on through the FED meeting next week. Expectations are for a .50 drop but their is a "nothing will make us happy" mentality coming out of the markets. .50 and the FED cowed to the markets showing no leadership in the move, less than .50 and the markets will scream that the FED doesnt understand what is going on. I'm looking for drops along the way and in general restlessness. Huge Jobless claims number coming out tomorrow. Many say the only TRUE way a recession occurs is if Jobs fall off (unemployment rises). This number tomorrow, on the heels of this gaining day could be foreshadowing of a monster sell off tomorrow.

[Warhammer]

Holy crap... If we lower the rate again, isn't inflation going to go through the roof? Aren't we exacerbating the situation since the whole reason why we are in this mess is due to the amount of dollars in the system and how easy it is to get them?

That said, I think Julian Robertson is right in his gloom and doom outlook, but I disagree with his swipe at conservative politics in the last 30 years.

[johnnyshaka]

You've got that right!

The market has been in the toilet all day in Canada, with the TSX index off over 220 points at the moment (-1.74%).

Tech, mining and minerals are getting throttled so my portfolio is suffering quite substantially.

I own some Research in Motion stock (RIM - TSX) and a couple of fertilizer stocks (POT - TSX & AGU - TSX)...all three are getting destroyed today after making significant comebacks yesterday. Volatile doesn't even begin to describe it!

All three are solid, profitable companies with good stories and I'm not worried long-term about their viability. So they are turning into long-term holds from the looks of things.

Funny, a friend of mine who owns some Research in Motion was kicking himself last night for not buying some more yesterday morning.

[Fighter of Foo]

Holy crap... If we lower the rate again, isn't inflation going to go through the roof? Aren't we exacerbating the situation since the whole reason why we are in this mess is due to the amount of dollars in the system and how easy it is to get them?



"First, a US hard landing will lead to a reduction in aggregate demand relative to the aggregate supply as a glut of housing, consumer durables, autos and, soon enough, other goods and service takes places. Such reduction in aggregate demand tends to reduce inflationary pressures as firms lose pricing power and then to cut prices to stave off the fall in demand and the rising stock of inventories of unsold goods. These deflationary pressures are already clear in housing where prices as falling and in the auto sector where the glut of automobiles is leading to price discounts and other price incentives. Obviously, inflation tends to fall in recession led by a fall in aggregate demand.

Second, during US recessions you observe a significant slack in labor markets: job losses and the rise in the unemployment rate lead to a slowdown in nominal wage growth that reduces labor costs and unit labor cost, thus reducing wage and price inflationary pressures in the economy."



The whole thing is here:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/238726/

[Flasch186]

random thought:

I wonder if now isn't the time to buy the XLF (Exchange traded fund for the "financials"). We may see some volatility but with lowered rates and gov't. help we may be seeing the first inklings of the leadership group that will lead us out of this. We may very well have more downside in front of us but I dont think that there is a doubt that this will be the group that turns North on the early pages of the next chapter.

thoughts?

[Warhammer]

"First, a US hard landing will lead to a reduction in aggregate demand relative to the aggregate supply as a glut of housing, consumer durables, autos and, soon enough, other goods and service takes places. Such reduction in aggregate demand tends to reduce inflationary pressures as firms lose pricing power and then to cut prices to stave off the fall in demand and the rising stock of inventories of unsold goods. These deflationary pressures are already clear in housing where prices as falling and in the auto sector where the glut of automobiles is leading to price discounts and other price incentives. Obviously, inflation tends to fall in recession led by a fall in aggregate demand.

Second, during US recessions you observe a significant slack in labor markets: job losses and the rise in the unemployment rate lead to a slowdown in nominal wage growth that reduces labor costs and unit labor cost, thus reducing wage and price inflationary pressures in the economy."



The whole thing is here:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/238726/

The problem with the scenario though is that if the housing market really tanks and values go way down, the banking sector is going to be hit really hard. All those mortgages that people have will be on houses that lost value. So you will have mounds of debt. Who absorbs that? I think the other problem that we have is that the US Dollar is weak right now. We print more money, we drive that value even lower. That weakens our ability to buy goods even more.

[Flasch186]

Jan 24


The early morning sees the Jobless Claims number and it rings out DOWN to 301,000. The Bulls argue that this forecasts that we will NOT hit a recession and site Jobless numbers during past recessions at being around 50,000 higher than that which we're seeing. Bears will argue that this means the FED will NOT cut next week, or at least not to where they want.

I'm not sure what this means as we have a housing number later today that people want to put some weight into.

Some weird news came out that a Rogue trader cost a French bank $7 billion in losses. The more important problem and how it effects us is that they unraveled their positions on Friday perhaps exacerbating the days losses in europe possibly "duping" our FED into it's emergency cut Monday. We'll see how tis all gets interpreted over the next few hours.

I still hold WMT (Wal-Mart) and CSCO (Cisco) and was thinking about getting into the XLF (financials ETF) but Ive always been back and forth into and out of Sirius Satellite radio (SIRI - a merger play that has not worked out for me over the past 8 months) and also take peeks at Wells Fargo (WFC).

[Fighter of Foo]

The problem with the scenario though is that if the housing market really tanks and values go way down, the banking sector is going to be hit really hard. All those mortgages that people have will be on houses that lost value. So you will have mounds of debt. Who absorbs that? I think the other problem that we have is that the US Dollar is weak right now. We print more money, we drive that value even lower. That weakens our ability to buy goods even more.


Every other country in the world will prop up the dollar because if they don't, and Americans can't afford to buy any imports, the rest of the world is completely and totally screwed. Commodity prices are already dropping and will continue to do so, and excess supply will force prices down as well. (See oil (http://www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html) here) In a few years there will probably be more of a threat of deflation rather than inflation. There was a very brief deflationary scare here in 2001. If you get caught in one of these cycles, it's exceptionally difficult to get out. See Japan in the 90s for the case study.

[Flasch186]

2:45pm

The resale housing numbers came out this morning and were an utter bebacle. A nationwide price drop for the first time in recent memories. The Bulls will argue that the key number is that the inventory has dropped quite a bit and we tick under 10months supply for the first time in a long time. The Bears will argue that this is just more signs of pain to come as people's wallets continue to tighten up.

Regarding wallets tightening, it seems the Government may actually accomplish getting a stimulus package out. Of it, it seems Americans will get somewhere between 600 - 2000 depending on their circumstances. 2 key things:

1. Even people who make lowered incomes and dont pay taxes will receive monies 9theyre more likely to spend it)

2. FHA limits are being raised dramatically thus loosening the monies surrounding mortgages.

Both of these would spell somewhat of an end in sight, maybe way own the line, but in sight.

I stand by my take that the rebate helps Wal-Mart (WMT) out quite a bit and almost see a huge portion of it ending up there. My Financial Sector Spider (4% yield) stays flat for today but I see this as a built bottomf for the financials and see that almost every improvement going forward, either from government, bailout, mortgage loosening, etc. will help them out. Cisco remains my longest holding since last summer.

The Tech sector sure does look cheap for a long term player. Apple? Intel? Dell even....Not sure when to dip the toe in but you cant help but look at their prices today and think "wow."

Microsoft reports earnings and outlook after the bell....this will move markets BIG.

[st.cronin]

Flasch, if you're looking for a long term play ... look around for some companies in the Veterinary medicine field. I think we are nowhere close to reaching the limit on what people will spend on their pets medical care. 5 years ago there was 1 emergency pet clinic in Madison, WI, today there are 6.

My girlfriend works in the field, I'll give you her insider's view on whatever company you want to take a look at.

[Flasch186]

Flasch, if you're looking for a long term play ... look around for some companies in the Veterinary medicine field. I think we are nowhere close to reaching the limit on what people will spend on their pets medical care. 5 years ago there was 1 emergency pet clinic in Madison, WI, today there are 6.

My girlfriend works in the field, I'll give you her insider's view on whatever company you want to take a look at.

thanks! Im not sure where Im going to be putting money but I only have 6 month time horizons.

[Fidatelo]

In the same vein, I've heard that Pet Insurance is a growing field, which would make sense to cover the costs of all these vet bills.

[NoSkillz]

some would argue that the tech names and ag. names are largely momentum plays and that may be turning over or rotating.

I agree on this to a point actually...

I'm a pretty active trader at the moment, as I continue to try to build my portfolio. A lot of my recent moves have been meant for short-term gains in order to build up my trade count with Waterhouse.

There is method to my madness, as I get much lower commission rates and a lot of perks when I get 'active trader' status with the company, including state of the art trading software at no charge and other goodies.

I've studied the movement of stocks like Potash, Agrium and Research in Motion for quite a long time now and really intend just to get small gains and get out. The recent downturn has meant me sticking with the stocks for a little longer than usual but all three companies, while trading at premium P/E ratios, are great companies with excellent earnings and growth.

So, while I'd rather continue to get in and out of these stocks quickly to build up my trade count, I am not worried whatsoever about sticking with them for a bit longer.

[johnnyshaka]

In the same vein, I've heard that Pet Insurance is a growing field, which would make sense to cover the costs of all these vet bills.

No doubt...I can see the headlines now...child dies of malnutrition and the welfare mother blames the system for not giving her enough money to provide the basic essentials for her and her child. Of note, mom was up to date on her pet insurance for her 5 cats and 2 dogs and they are healthier than ever.

[Flasch186]

Afterhours

Microsoft (MSFT) crushed their earnings but more importantly they guide higher going forward. This forecasts an up day tomorrow BUT if it's a Bear market you would be one to sell this rally. Any Bull would be trying to get in arguing that things aren't as bad they seem going forward and now you need to be in.

Is this a rally that one can get into for awhile, or simply a dead cat bouncing?

[Flasch186]

I have to travel to Detroit tomorrow and wont be able to do an end of day recap so if someone else would like to do one that would be great as I'd love to keep this thread going for at least '08 to see if we can all help eachother through discussion and debate in wading through this morass we're staring at.

thanks in advance.

[path12]

In the same vein, I've heard that Pet Insurance is a growing field, which would make sense to cover the costs of all these vet bills.

I'm actually thinking about getting that for Norm aka The Sweetest Boy In The Whole Wide World (TM). I'm amazed at how much vet bills can run, and IIRC insurance is somewhere around $100/yr. That would be well worth it for the peace of mind.

[miked]

Beware! Many vets don't take insurance, you have to pay out of pocket and try to get re-imbursed. It's not very well regulated and they have lots of fine print.

[path12]

Beware! Many vets don't take insurance, you have to pay out of pocket and try to get re-imbursed. It's not very well regulated and they have lots of fine print.

Thanks for the heads up. I will research carefully before jumping into it.

[Flasch186]

I had a heart to heart w/ the vet when talking about my bulldog's joints and he said that with pure breeds they pretty much envelop everything under breed specific and dont cover it (common to the breed). He suggested not to get it.

[Flasch186]

January 25


The end of a wild week and now we spend the day worrying about the same things we were at the beginning of the week. Was the FED duped into the .75 cut by the "rogue" trader in France? Are we in or headed towards a recession? Will the rebates work?

The last few hours of the day will be important tot his short rally. Are people going to sell it? Will it show some legs?

The talk for next week is the scheduled FED meeting....will they still cut the .50 the markets want?

[Flasch186]

End of day

Well Im here a few minutes before we go. A down day on wall street as most people think that it was time to take some profits from the rare week up of '08. Next week we have the Official FED meeting and speculation runs wild about what they'll do. Cut? how much? etc. Bush's State of the Union address is Monday but most people dont put much effective weight in that. Some Job losses that have been announced seem to keep fanning the nervous flame for next week.

I suffer some losses today but not every one is going to be up. I am thinking that we are building a bottom here and will try to average in some on Monday morning. This play is very speculative as the FED meeting could send the Dow soaring or tumbling and Ill find myself on one side of the fence. Some people who play options can hedge their bets that way. I dont know anything about these so I'll leave those for someone else to talk about.

[Flasch186]

January 28

We should see tons of volatility this week and it doesnt get us off on the right foot that the asian and european markets tumbled overnight. We'll see a ton of data this week that will swing markets. It wont be for those with weak stomachs. President's State of the Union address which should focus on the economy but will have very little in substance as it is a more glossed approach, Fed Meeting is big, but some say the biggest number and the true sign if were in, headed for, or going to skirt a recession: The Jobs report on Friday couple with the manufacturing report. Low numbers of Jobs or a negative manufacturing report and you may see people head for the doors Friday afternoon. Something more on the positive side of things and perhaps some people will view this as an entry point.

This morning Mcdonald's (MCD) beat their numbers but stated that same store sales in Q4 were flat but Sysco (SYY) had a slight miss. The market had futures way down early and has slowly fought its way back to -29 but continues to be up and down but below fair value.

[Flasch186]

3:20pm

the day stays up ALL day since the initial downer of an open as the markets start to hang their hats on a .50 rate cut. This is on the heels of the worst housing numbers in recent memory as sales tumble to a low not seen yet in this cycle. Some fish out positive news in that prices have begun their decline meaning that sellers are finally getting "real".

On the economic stimulus front it seems that the speed the package has seen thus far may be running aground as the Senate talks of adding angles to help Seniors and unemployment benefit extensions. The Pres. will warn on this in tonight's speech supposedly.

My stocks do fairly well today and I have 50% of my powder on the sideline protecting myself from the bear turn, should it occur again. If we begin a steady climb Ill try to find entry points along the way. No need to pick the bottom, I try to keep telling myself.

3:00 pm : Stocks retreat off their highs, but are still holding onto strong gains. The recent retreat was concentrated in the tech sector, which is now trading 0.1% lower.

Shares of Nymex Holdings (NMX 114.50, +7.34) are posting significant gains. CME Group (CME 619.81, -9.19) and Nymex confirmed rumors that they are in preliminary discussions regarding CME's potential acquisition of Nymex. The companies have agreed to a 30-day exclusive negotiating period.

In other acquisition news, shares of Alliance Data (ADS 42.10, -23.50) are sharply lower after the company indicated its acquisition by affiliates of The Blackstone Group may not happen. Blackstone had told Alliance that it does not anticipate the condition to close the merger related to obtaining approvals from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency will be satisfied.DJ30 +82.75 NASDAQ +10.32 SP500 +12.57 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1017/1927/1.44 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 766/2390/1.02 bln


BTW Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) look really tempting at these prices especially for those of us who missed the run up last time. We want in and we want the run up to happen again. Google tested some lows today and Apple has been sliding.

[Flasch186]

end of day

The markets finish off on a high and look to be rallying into the FED meeting. Again, tech sector was the drag so it may be an opportunity for some to get in there should they have missed a time or two before. Financials lead the charge and hopefully will continue this push should the Fed meet the street's expectation on the size of the cut.

My XLF play I hope to be able to play on this.

Sirius (SIRI) is rallying from lows a few weeks ago in the 2.60+ range. Figures that I missed it.

[Flasch186]

January 29

The street looks at a higher opening as the FED begins their meeting today. The Street seems to be betting on a .50 cut but I can tell you if they dont get it we're looking at quite the tumble. We're going to get a look at the river card tomorrow so if you're nervous you may want to sell at some point today to dodge the decision. I will not be. As signaled by my Financial ETF play (XLF) I think we get the cut and financials and homebuilders head higher. Im not sure what is going on with Tech as it seems no one wants to dive back in there yet. You could see global Ag. companies turn north as well following the cut as they have just gotten destroyed lately ie. Monsanto (MON), Potash (POT), or the ETF (MOO).

[Flasch186]

Im taking a chance and getting into Google as it tests it's low. If the FED cuts .50 tomorrow I hope this support level serves as a launching point for this tech stock. If not it could turn even further south, which would suck.

[Flasch186]

midday

All day speculation on trying to forecast the FED's move and the market reaction to what it could be. Some feel that no matter what tomorrow will be a down day. I'm feeling contrarian and think that the FED will cut .50 and the market will turn to the comments. I am hopeful that this will send the markets higher as they begin to digest the FED speak. Could be wrong and if I am then my entry point on Google (GOOG) will have been off.

[Flasch186]

end of day

we head into the end of the day on an upswing as quiet optimism starts to come through that the FED may ease that .50 everyone wants and reinforce their fears of the slowing economy as opposed to inflation fears. Yahoo (YHOO) reports after the bell and many expect major reshuffling and reorganization from them. some rumors overnight that Microsoft (MSFT) might try and enter the search space and that may involve Yahoo, somehow. All eyes on the FED. My Google (GOOG) entry is slightly down at the end of the day but that's to be expected for one day. If we hit off tomorrow it could turn up or down depending on market leadership. If we peg downward after the FED at 215pm EST we could be down a lot only to hopefully come back up some.

[Flasch186]

afterhours

Yahoo (YHOO) meets expectations but forecasts a lower than expected outlook. Yahoo begins to sell off afterhours taking Google (GOOG) with it. My entry was early and Ill buy some more tomorrow to average that entry.

[st.cronin]

Did Flasch quit his job?

[Flasch186]

naw, but if you havnt heard Real Estate is slow so I have time to watch the markets and dredge through information until my brain explodes.

But Im trying to launch a small business too....keeping busy when it's so frickin' slow.

[Marc Vaughan]

some rumors overnight that Microsoft (MSFT) might try and enter the search space and that may involve Yahoo, somehow.

I think its unlikely that Microsoft would purchase Yahoo - if you look at the webstats Microsoft are already in third place (13.8%) just behind Yahoo! (17.7%) and the very dominant Google (56.3%) are far above both.

Purchasing Yahoo! would put Microsoft in second place but still far behind Google, I could only see them doing the deal if it'd give them a real shot at the title myself ... otherwise they'll just try and continue to make inroads using their dominant aspects (ie. integration via. MSN Messenger etc.) as they've been doing in the past.

[Flasch186]

Jan. 30

ADP Report (private payroll #'s) - HOT HOT HOT, this may make it tough for the FED to go .50 on their cut. However does it say our fears of recession may be unjustified? Report couldnt come out at a better time for FED watchers. If the FED still goes .50 the markets may fire off from here. a .25 cut and all bets are off.

GDP comes out "light".....this may be creating the perfect storm needed for the .50 cut. wow. GDP still grows at .6% so now the street is looking for that cut of .50% or it is going to drop precipitously IMO.

[Flasch186]

DOLA

Lots of negative sentiment regarding the decision today wherein we may see a selloff no matter the decision. Some even think that this could be the beginning of bearish sentiment to re-test the lows. I hope not, what to do?

[Flasch186]

Here we go!!


Fed's decision:

.50 & .50 and the markets jump immediately BUT we'll see if this is a prelude to a selloff. The commentary was huge though, expect moderation of inflationary pressures while downside risks remain and the FED will act in a timely manner.

[Flasch186]

the rally seems to be gaining traction as the markets digest this. Things seem to be looking up but there is a dark horseman on the horizon in the way of Friday's jobs report.

[Flasch186]

end of day

A NASTY end of day sell off leaves the markets in negative territory. Exemplifies the volatility we're suffering right now. Amazon reports after hours a beat on profits, a raised outlook all which bodes well....but the bears sift through their comments and sees that margins we're squeezed and the sell-off occurs after hours.

My positions hold basically except for my financial ETF which sells off with the financials at the end of the day.

Google (GOOG) reports earnings tomorrow for more volatility and I might lose my ass on it.

tomorrow's sentiment is shaping up to be brutal. The Mortgage Bond insurer rumblings regarding writeoffs, downgraded (loss of AAA rating) and potential rumors of an "apocalypse" in their sector is tying the leash onto this dog and preparing to lead it right into the ditch. Im prepared to ride this one down i think hoping for a bounce. I swear, everytime i think we're done with this and that we'll avoid a broad recession (or may be past it), I get a swift smack in the face.

[path12]

For the record, I enjoy following this thread even though I don't have enough knowledge to really comment on it. Other than my 401K I'm woefully underinvested.

[Flasch186]

For the record, I enjoy following this thread even though I don't have enough knowledge to really comment on it. Other than my 401K I'm woefully underinvested.

thanks, start by watching CNBC and starting up a play money account somewhere. Thats a zero risk way to get started.

Im hoping it'll catch on with other people who will start posting thoughts, positions, etc. I would love to have it turn into a long term gathering place for commentary and debate on the markets.

All are invited to participate :)

[st.cronin]

I just want to reiterate that I'm quite bearish for the rest of the year. There will be companies that make money - but I don't see much reason for general optimism until a new President is inaugurated.

[Flasch186]

Would you say that this is based on the general slowing of the economy or other factors? Is the severity of the bearishness effected by recent rate cuts? Are you saying that the political season has something to do with the bearishness as you certainly are not the only one to be so?

[st.cronin]

Would you say that this is based on the general slowing of the economy or other factors? Is the severity of the bearishness effected by recent rate cuts? Are you saying that the political season has something to do with the bearishness as you certainly are not the only one to be so?

The market has been over-priced since the Clinton boom. There was a "pop" in 2000, but the correction was just a partial one - there's been a full correction waiting in the wings ever since (my opinion, but I know I'm not alone in thinking that). The recent rate cuts have been, I think, made partly with the idea of propping up the market. But rates have been historically low in recent years, too, and unless it goes to .025 or something, I just don't see low rates carrying the same weight they historically have, I think they've done all they can do - combine that with the slowing of the housing market, and the problems in the credit industry, and I REALLY don't think rate cuts will help the market much. And in general I think until the election there will be some uncertainty as to the direction of the economy, and thus a reluctance on the part of investors to fully participate.

Note that I do think the economy is still strong, and worth investing in. I just think looking for short term profits is going to be extremely difficult, whereas in the 90s it was disarmingly easy.

[Marc Vaughan]

Well this might put the cat amongst the pigeons ...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=am2Nk1VM5YsA

[Flasch186]

yeah, Im not sure how this will play out because at the same time there have been talks of bailouts and such for the Bond Insurers so it may factually end upw ashing eachother out. This will be THE news for tomorrow though so the markets will be interesting to watch.

IMO this could be the single largest thing to happen in this whole subprime mess, thus far. Could literally push us into a 2000+ point sell off (over a few weeks). I hope Im wrong but I must admit that i will have a hair trigger on my stocks going forward.

[MikeVic]

Please keep this up. I like reading it and trying to understand what's going on so I can one day venture into stocks.

What site do you use to check stock prices and history and stuff?

[Flasch186]

i use Bank of America for my trading and streamer, yahoo financials for charts and such but Im sure others use much better and more intricate stuff.

[Flasch186]

overnight

Posting an overnight update due to the S&P Mortgage Bond insurer downgrade rumors (see article linked a few posts above)

Asia's Nikkei is up which means perhaps there is a little less fire to that talk then need be. This is grasping for straws though as the overseas markets tend to be, well, stupid and follow our lead. Every time I've tried to see an overseas market take the lead on an issue they end up looking retarded.

[Marc Vaughan]

IMO this could be the single largest thing to happen in this whole subprime mess, thus far. Could literally push us into a 2000+ point sell off (over a few weeks). I hope Im wrong but I must admit that i will have a hair trigger on my stocks going forward.

My gut feeling is pretty negative towards the American market at the moment, even companies which are returning good financials are struggling to swim upstream .... until things settle down a little and some consistent good news starts coming through I think things will continue to head south at the slightest flicker of negativity.

(I would however still consider investing outside of America - partially because the external economies appear to be holding up somewhat better, but also because I expect the dollar to drop further before it recovers)

[Flasch186]

I'm tempted to sell out of my Google (GOOG), and Financial Sector Spyder (XLF). Im feeling bad things going forward.

January 31

This morning the economic reports did not bode well:

In addition, new reports on consumer activity and the labor market were worrisome reminders of the seriousness of the economic slowdown.

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A sizable 0.50 percentage point rate reduction from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday was not enough to keep stocks higher. An initial relief rally after the Fed announcement gave way to a new selling wave as speculation mounted that insurers that guarantee massive amounts of municipal and corporate debt may receive downgrades from credit agencies as early as this week.

So we're seeing some stuff that coupled with the MBI stuff could lead us to the cliff again. However, rumours are swirling that the bond Insurer(s) may get swooped up by vultures. If this happens it could stave off the negative drag from it (might even create a small bounce). We shall see but it's hard to shake the negative sentiment.

[JPhillips]

MBIA has to have their rating lowered. They just announced losses of 18.61 per share. No way in hell they keep a AAA rating.

[Flasch186]

after a really scary open we seem to be treading water and even paring off some of those lows. Could be a slight bounce leading to a sell OR the waters could be so muddied right now that we begin to go flat heading into tomorrow's jobs report.

In the meantime, the bonds market have begun to bet on an intermeeting cut by the FED again. Some would say it's just greedy while others say it plays into the "things are worse then they seem" thought.

An upgrade today for the entire U.S. Retail sector from a Dutch bank and Wal-Mart (WMT) is jumping for me. this is helpful in countering my losses on Google (GOOG) which could get worse as Google reports after hours.

[MikeVic]

What does it mean when a company splits its stock?

[Logan]

What does it mean when a company splits its stock?

Pretty much exactly as it sounds. If a company announces a 2 for 1 split, and you hold 100 shares at $50/share, you now own 200 shares at $25/share. Market capitilization (market value of shares x number of shares outstanding) doesn't change, and there's no dilution because everyone still owns the same percentage of shares.

[MikeVic]

Why would a company split? To make it seem like they aren't doing as well?

[Logan]

Public perception, mostly. Although I think there are many different schools of thought to be honest. A stock trading at $100 seems to have a higher barrier to entry to the simple investor than when it's at $50. I think there's also a belief that it's "easier" for a stock to grow when it's at a lower price.

edit: http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/113.asp

Kind of what I was going for:

A stock split is usually done by companies that have seen their share price increase to levels that are either too high or are beyond the price levels of similar companies in their sector. The primary motive is to make shares seem more affordable to small investors even though the underlying value of the company has not changed.

[MikeVic]

Cool, thanks a lot! I wasn't sure if it was a bad or good thing.

[st.cronin]

Stocks normally only split after hitting a new high.

[MikeVic]

fyi, I'm browsing Google Finance to check for how the market is doing, and to check on the one mutual fund I do own.

[Flasch186]

Mid-day

What is going on today?!

We started down 180 and the market was rattled completely by the bond insurer talk but not only have we fought back but we are now up over 100 points!

I sit pretty with an upgrade of the retail sector and my Wal-Mart is up almost 3% putting me in the green on it over 2.5%. Google still looms tonight and is quite the scare.

For us gamers Gamestop (GME) spiked today on the retail bump up over 2$. I am a firm believer that this will be a big winner this year even with a slowdown. I liked this stock below 50 and am not really sure why I bought Wal-mart (WMT) over it other than the residual recession talk.

The XLF is up over 3% today too. nice.

Recovery talk!! Home Depot (HD) up a bunch and Wal-Mart helping.

[Flasch186]

I cut short my stay in Google (GOOG) I end up at about a wash there, a little down but I need to dodge this bullet. This afternoon could be ugly, like the other internet companies.

Im just a puss and I just dont see any good news getting a positive result afterhours. I could be wrong but the trends speak otherwise (AMZN, YHOO)

2:00pm Of course, GOOG goes up on the "Flasch sales" rally. :) I miss a huge pop during the day, perhaps on the Band C wireless auction reserve price being met meaning that whomever ends up with the wireless network has to run open source, thus helping Google to spread its wares, on it, even if they dont own the network.

Man is that frustrating! My friend thinks that this is a prelude to a sell off on the heels of their earnings tonight and the jobs report tomorrow. He is actually short the markets for tomorrow.

I shouldnt be upset. Im up acrossed the board on my other holdings: Cisco (CSCO), Wal-Mart (WMT), Fin. spider (XLF) but I hate it when I zig when I should zag.

[Flasch186]

End of day-ish

Today's rally is actually picking up steam heading into the Google (GOOG) earnings at 400pm est. The pattern has been that these rallies either fall off end of day or get killed afterhours, especially as tech stock report earnings.

Today's rally has been led broadly by some financials, home builders, and consumer retailers smacking the face of the recession talk HOWEVER we stare straight into the eyes of tomorrow's jobs report. Im not sure how that has gotten moved from the front burner to the backburner today because this morning markets we're trembling before it and hanging onto every word about the Mortgage Bond Insurer issues.

Speaking of, MBIA had a conference call and basically spat in the face of the "fearmongering" going on and stated that they were very healthy and were not concerned about being close to losing their triple A rating.

Jeez, Google (GOOG) has popped a second time, along with the markets into this end of day and now is up over 17 points (oh, opportunity). I still wonder how the earnings report will effect everything. I hear that the rally is short covering but at this point, who knows.

[Logan]

Another decent day for ABK. At this point, I'm only down about 60% on it from my buy three weeks ago.

[Flasch186]

any opinions on today's rally? Is this a good time to take some profits? Will it be the start of something decent through February?

[st.cronin]

KGC
AA

[Flasch186]

----woah last 10 minute bounce here?


shaky stuff to end the day.

Apparently a Reuters headline came in to smack the MBIA downgrade nail in again. lost 100points on it, perhaps.

We await Google (GOOG)

WOAH, huge MISS!!! I might've actually did this right!! unreal. It is way down (~$50/share) afterhours almost immediately. News still coming out.

My reaction may be the markets but some snippets out of the report might show some really good signs to grab ahold of. The Conference Call has yet to come but this may be a case of the market's seizing on anything negative to sell while possibly creating a situation where the stock is oversold (compare to Amazon[AMZN])

[st.cronin]

Maybe also SLB.

[st.cronin]

SNPS is a good company that lost some money today, I don't know why. Might be a bargain.

[st.cronin]

Flasch: Hold on XLF. Sell everything else. Get into precious metals, energy, and maybe some more finance - although you don't want to be too exposed to that sector. Your window for precious metals is Election Day. Get out between a month and a week before that date.

This advice is completely free, and worth every penny.

[Flasch186]

Cronin, Could you do me (and the watchers) a favor and expand more on your tickers above? Company names, your feelings on them, etc.

when you have time, of course. Thanks.

BTW, my analysis and opinions are complete laymens's observations and you should do your own Due Diligence before buying or selling any stock or investment. This should apply to probably any post in this thread.

Now if you have a question about Housing....PM me, Im an expert on Jacksonville, FL :)

[Fighter of Foo]

"The reaction of the stock market to the unexpected 75bps cut by the Fed last week and its reaction today to the further 50bps cut clearly shows that markets and investors are now fully realizing that the US economy is suffering from serious credit, i.e. insolvency, problems, not just illiquidity ones; and that Fed monetary policy can partly tackle illiquidity problems but cannot resolve insolvency ones.

Last Tuesday when the Fed unexpectedly cut the Fed Funds rate by 75bps the US stock market fell by over 1% in spite of that cut (but by less than the 5% that the futures had priced before that surprise cut). The next day – Wednesday – the S&P tumbled by another 2.5% for most of the day giving the market verdict on the Fed action: too little, too late and useless to resolve the massive credit problems in the economy, including the serious market concerns that a downgrade of the monolines would lead to massive financial write-downs and a financial meltdown. The late day whopping rally in the last two hours of trading on Wednesday last week – 600 points on the Dow and over 5% on the S&P – was triggered instead by the news that the New York insurance regulator had met with banks to try to work out a plan to recap the monolines and thus avoid a catastrophic downgrade of their triple AAA rating. So that day the market told the Fed (with a 3.5% stock market drop following the rate cut): your 75bps cut means practically nothing to us and unless the credit problems of the economy are resolved. And the 5% rally was indeed triggered by news that maybe the monocline downgrade could be avoided.

Same story – in reverse - today Wednesday after the additional 50bps cut by the Fed. The initial reaction of the stock market was a relief rally – with the S&P500 index up about 1.7% after the Fed announcement and its signal of more monetary easing ahead. But this rally totally fizzled again in the last two hours of trading as reality sank in that the rescue of the monolines is much harder than hoped for after Fitch revoked its top AAA ranking on Financial Guaranty Insurance Co, one of the bond insurers. So the S&P fell from its day peak by 2.2% and finished the day 0.5% below its opening level in spite of the 50bps gift by the Fed and in spite of the fact that the Fed had reduced policy rates by a whopping 125bps in eight days!"

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/241162/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monoline_insurance

[st.cronin]

KGC - Kinross Gold, Canadian mining company.
AA- Alcoa, makes Aluminum.
SLB - Shlumberger Limited, oilfield services.

SNPS is a tech company, I forget what they do exactly, and I wouldn't want to buy them. They might be good, but forget I mentioned them.

As for the broader comment, I just think that's where people will put their money. Precious metals is likely to crash hard at some point, but you should be fine if you're out by election day.

Election day is the key - that's the next time when we'll have some idea what the economy is going to do.

[Flasch186]

February1

Looks like the Microsoft (MSFT) Yahoo (YHOO) combination will pan out as Microsoft offers $31/share for the company, this morning. That is a 60%+ premium and a "no brainer". Not sure how it will pan out for the market or their stock as we are not seeing an early morning jump in either companies prices.

EDIT - Market futures are UP, a lot.

Rumors that the "natural counter" to this is Google (GOOG) picking off AOL since they already own 5% of it.

Jobs report at 830am.

[Marc Vaughan]

Shocked by the purchase attempt - if my funds clear before there's a 'kick' I'll definitely consider some YAHOO stock.

I don't think the purchase is a great idea from Microsofts perspective and it smacks of desperation to be honest, however I expect it'll go through (as the Yahoo boss has quit which smacks of him not wanting it to happen and being pushed aside).

[NoSkillz]

JANUARY RECAP - CANADA

Positive outcomes in six of the last eight trading sessions allowed the TSX to regain about half of the month's losses, with the index down 4.92% for January.

As stated earlier, my portfolio tends to be very aggressive and volatile, with my bad days being worse than the market but my good days being much better.

Therefore, a down month on the TSX meant a down month for my portfolio, as I personally was down 5.74% for the month. At one point, I was down almost 15% so the last week of gains was very good to me. :)

It could have been worse but I was able to take advantage of a few bargains mid-month and sold for decent profit. I sold off my shares of Potash (POT - TSX) yesterday and netted 6.8% in the two weeks I was a shareholder, which is a solid return for me. I also benefitted earlier in the month when MacDonald, Dettwiler and Assoc. (MDA - TSX) sold off their information systems business division for over $1.3 Billion and the stock shot up considerably.

I will look to get back into Potash if it drops into the low 130s or high 120s. I'm also hoping to start selling off some of my Research in Motion (RIM - TSX) stock but I still believe it will soon get back over $100/share and will wait it out a bit longer.

[stevew]

Despite the fact that SHLD is up 25+ points in the last 3 weeks, I'd still avoid it like the plauge. The company is still fucked up, and still posts SSS declines every 9 weeks. It's amazing how few people actually shop our store, and from what I've read on employee forums, it's like that a lot of different places. They did fire Alywin Lewis a few days ago, which is nice cause I'll never have to watch the cocksucker on another training video.

[MikeVic]

Ok so I know it was recommended not to get into stocks until I have $25,000 to invest... I'm not even close, but I wanted to track some stocks and get into it a little bit. Is it standard for places to offer something like $7/trade, but you have to pay $400 a year first?

[stevew]

oh yeah, and just to illustrate the razor thin margins, on BF in electronics we sold over 160k worth of merchandise, warranties, etc. Total department profit to the store....80 bucks. Granted their "profit" idea is not an exact science and it's based on an extremely fucked up formula, it was still funny as hell.

[damnMikeBrown]

MikeVic, no, that is not standard. Do more research, consider your options. For the vast majority of people...VAST, individual stocks are not the best choice for investing. Market timing, which many stock pickers believe they can do, is inexact and an educated gamble. Even the professionals (futures traders) get it wrong about 1/2 the time.

It is a cautionary tale I sing, and w. no disrespect to those trading in individual stocks. . .your post in particular just made me think---he should probably do some more research.

[MikeVic]

So I'm looking at etrade.ca (specifically https://www.canada.etrade.com/splash/Pricing06.shtml)... it seems like there's no annual fee, and $20/trade for me since I wouldn't have many trades, or over $50,000 in assets.

It says something about U.S. and Canadian equities though. Does that mean I can't buy stocks for companies traded in other countries, like Sony in Japan's market?

[MikeVic]

MikeVic, no, that is not standard. Do more research, consider your options. For the vast majority of people...VAST, individual stocks are not the best choice for investing. Market timing, which many stock pickers believe they can do, is inexact and an educated gamble. Even the professionals (futures traders) get it wrong about 1/2 the time.

It is a cautionary tale I sing, and w. no disrespect to those trading in individual stocks. . .your post in particular just made me think---he should probably do some more research.

Thank you.

[Kodos]

Thank you.

A lot of experts suggest that for uneducated investors (such as myself), index funds are a good option. Low costs associated with them, and you get good diversification. Trading individual stocks is probably best for people with lots of industry knowledge. Consumer Reports Money Advisor does studies on various aspects of investing, and they say that people who try to time things usually do worse than people who buy and hold for a long time.

I like index funds because they are an easy way to match a given market's gains. I can buy, go away, and not have to constantly monitor how things are going. Doing lots of buying and selling is a good way to make your broker rich.

http://www.getrichslowly.org/blog/2007/08/26/questions-and-answers-with-warren-buffett/

[NoSkillz]

So I'm looking at etrade.ca (specifically https://www.canada.etrade.com/splash/Pricing06.shtml)... it seems like there's no annual fee, and $20/trade for me since I wouldn't have many trades, or over $50,000 in assets.

It says something about U.S. and Canadian equities though. Does that mean I can't buy stocks for companies traded in other countries, like Sony in Japan's market?

You likely won't be able to buy equities outside of North America but again, as a novice in the investment game, you should really concentrate on learning about our market before moving into different countries. You can always look for ETF's for foreign indexes like Japan on the US or CDN stock exchanges.

The $20.00/trade is a decent figure for someone in your position. As an example, up until last month, I was paying $29.99/trade with Waterhouse. I finally qualified for $9.99 commission rates after reaching 'active trader' status with them and there is one more bracket I can reach as well (I think $5/trade).

[MikeVic]

Ok, so maybe I should be going into index funds, which I believe was mentioned in my other thread as well. How would I find index funds for particular markets? I did a search for "index funds" on Google Finance, and there were over 4000 results... is there a way to find specific markets?

I should also probably do this with etrade.ca, as that seems like a good choice.

[NoSkillz]

MikeVic, no, that is not standard. Do more research, consider your options. For the vast majority of people...VAST, individual stocks are not the best choice for investing. Market timing, which many stock pickers believe they can do, is inexact and an educated gamble. Even the professionals (futures traders) get it wrong about 1/2 the time.

It is a cautionary tale I sing, and w. no disrespect to those trading in individual stocks. . .your post in particular just made me think---he should probably do some more research.

This is pretty excellent advice for MOST people but not everyone.

If you are willing to put in time (I'd say at least an hour a day, which most people admittedly can't do) into researching your investments, trading equities can be much more lucrative and satisfying than index or mutual funds.

However, if you can't see yourself putting 5 hours or so a week into research and staying on top of each fund , that fund's market segment and the market in general, I'd stick to mutuals and let the fund managers do all the work for you.

[MikeVic]

I've just had a few instances where I wanted to buy stocks because of news I heard about a company, or because of something the company has recently done. And each time I've seen the stock rise up, but I don't get the benefit. I'm sure I'm just thinking of the good buys I would've had and not the bad ones, but it's still frustrating to just sit here.

[NoSkillz]

Ok, so maybe I should be going into index funds, which I believe was mentioned in my other thread as well. How would I find index funds for particular markets? I did a search for "index funds" on Google Finance, and there were over 4000 results... is there a way to find specific markets?

I should also probably do this with etrade.ca, as that seems like a good choice.

Are there any particular market indexes you are interested in? Are there any market segments you are interested in? I'm sure we can help direct you to whichever funds you might be looking for.

As well, just so you know, if the $20/trade is problematic for you, you should definitely look into mutuals, as there is no fee off the top for purchasing or selling the funds from my experience. The management fees are built into the price of the fund. However, most mutual funds have a certain timeframe that you have to own the fund for before selling in order to avoid penalty fees.

[MikeVic]

Are there any particular market indexes you are interested in? Are there any market segments you are interested in? I'm sure we can help direct you to whichever funds you might be looking for.

As well, just so you know, if the $20/trade is problematic for you, you should definitely look into mutuals, as there is no fee off the top for purchasing or selling the funds from my experience. The management fees are built into the price of the fund. However, most mutual funds have a certain timeframe that you have to own the fund for before selling in order to avoid penalty fees.

I own one mutual fund that's just been losing money or staying still since September of last year. And then I look at my bank's site, and every mutual fund listed has either a negative return or something crap under 5%. So my opinion on mutual funds isn't very good right now. I'm still holding on because it's supposed to be a long-term fund of 3 years, but I would've liked to see small gains instead of medium-sized loses. :(

[MikeVic]

And I'm not sure which market yet really. Some kind of minerals would be nice. But I wanted to track some indexes to see what kind of volatility they have.

[Kodos]

Ok, so maybe I should be going into index funds, which I believe was mentioned in my other thread as well. How would I find index funds for particular markets? I did a search for "index funds" on Google Finance, and there were over 4000 results... is there a way to find specific markets?

I should also probably do this with etrade.ca, as that seems like a good choice.

Here are some index funds that Consumer Reports recommended in their Dec. 2007 issue of Money Adviser, broken out by what market the index is mirroring.

Total stock market
ticker minimum investment
FSTMX 10,000
VTSMX 3,000

S&P 500 index
FSMKX 10,000
VFINX 3,000

Mid-cap
VIMSX 3,000

Small-cap
NAESX 3,000

International funds
FSIIX 10,000
VGTSX 3,000

Bonds
VBMFX 3,000

You should check a fund's expense ratio before buying it. For index funds, it should be lower than .40 percent. Most of the ones listed above are less than .20 percent.

If you don't have enough to hit the minimums, you could start a Roth IRA - when you purchase funds from there, you don't need to hit the minimum investment level. The downside being, you can't take money out until you retire (not sure what timeframe you are looking at - retirement, or just to make better money than you can get in a savings account or CD).

[NoSkillz]

I own one mutual fund that's just been losing money or staying still since September of last year. And then I look at my bank's site, and every mutual fund listed has either a negative return or something crap under 5%. So my opinion on mutual funds isn't very good right now. I'm still holding on because it's supposed to be a long-term fund of 3 years, but I would've liked to see small gains instead of medium-sized loses. :(

Well, I hate to be the bearer of bad news but index funds, which obviously mirror a specific stock exchange, wouldn't have been much better since September...

As an example, the TSX and most North American markets are lower now than they were in April of 2007 so most mutual funds and index funds that mirror that exchange will be down. The only difference is that the funds will be a bit lower than the actual exchange due to management fees.

Also, the majority of equities also would be down since September - we've been in a bit of a bear market (ie: down) for the past nine months and I doubt you would have seen much success whether you were in mutuals or in individual stocks.

I have no problem telling you that my portfolio is up only about 4% since April 15, 2007, a number I'm actually elated with since the TSX is down about 1% in the same time frame. But I've done a lot of buying and selling to get to that +4% figure...if I had just let my initial purchases ride, I'd be losing money right now.

[Fidatelo]

I've been investing pretty much exclusively in mutual funds for about 10 years now, and I'm not all that happy with their performance. I'm really thinking of moving to a more index-fund based approach, and these comments are only strengthening that.

That said, I'm actually pretty skeptical about investing in the markets, indexed or otherwise, at all. "They" like to claim that all the market does is go up over time, but it seems like a narrow view that happens to coincide with North America rising to prominence over the last 100 years. I see our economy taking major hits over my lifetime, and it makes me worry that the market may never rise significantly enough in the next 30 years for me to earn enough returns to retire.

The problem is, with interest rates on bonds or whatnot so low, what are my other options?

[NoSkillz]

And I'm not sure which market yet really. Some kind of minerals would be nice. But I wanted to track some indexes to see what kind of volatility they have.

Here is one index for you to look at from the Canadian market...I'll work on one or two more for you:

XMA (TSX - XMA) - iShares CDN S&P/TSX Capped Materials Index Fund

Summary: iShares CDN Materials Sector Index Fund seeks to provide long-term capital growth by replicating, to the extent possible, the performance of the S&P/TSX Capped Materials Index through investments in the constituent issuers of such index, net of expenses. The Index is comprised of the securities of Canadian materials sector issuers listed on the TSX, selected by S&P using its industrial classifications and guidelines for evaluating issuer capitalization, liquidity and fundamentals.

Current Holdings:
<TABLE class=holdings_detail id=holdings border=0><THEAD><TR class=row_header><TH id=fund_name onmouseover="this.style.cursor = 'pointer';" style="CURSOR: pointer" onclick="swap_sort('/product_info/fund_details/CA/ajax_holdings', 'ticker=XMA&sort=asset_nm&direction=ASC&foreign_equity=', 'holdings_data');" vAlign=top>Name http://www.ishares.ca/images/en_CA/sort_arrow_right.gif


</TH><TH id=ticker onmouseover="this.style.cursor = 'pointer';" onclick="swap_sort('/product_info/fund_details/CA/ajax_holdings', 'ticker=XMA&sort=ticker&direction=ASC&foreign_equity=', 'holdings_data');" vAlign=top>Ticker http://www.ishares.ca/images/en_CA/sort_arrow_right.gif


</TH><TH id=weight onmouseover="this.style.cursor = 'pointer';" style="CURSOR: pointer" onclick="swap_sort('/product_info/fund_details/CA/ajax_holdings', 'ticker=XMA&sort=weight&direction=ASC&foreign_equity=', 'holdings_data');" vAlign=top>Weight http://www.ishares.ca/images/en_CA/sort_arrow_down.gif


</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR><TD class=fund_name>BARRICK GOLD CORP </TD><TD class=ticker>ABX </TD><TD class=weight>17.86% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>POTASH CORP OF SASKATCHEWAN </TD><TD class=ticker>POT </TD><TD class=weight>17.80% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>GOLDCORP INC </TD><TD class=ticker>G </TD><TD class=weight>10.46% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>TECK COMINCO LTD-CL B </TD><TD class=ticker>TCK/B </TD><TD class=weight>5.68% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>KINROSS GOLD CORP </TD><TD class=ticker>K </TD><TD class=weight>5.30% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>YAMANA GOLD INC </TD><TD class=ticker>YRI </TD><TD class=weight>4.40% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>AGRIUM INC </TD><TD class=ticker>AGU </TD><TD class=weight>4.00% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>AGNICO-EAGLE MINES </TD><TD class=ticker>AEM </TD><TD class=weight>3.59% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>FORDING CANADIAN COAL TRUST </TD><TD class=ticker>FDG-U </TD><TD class=weight>2.12% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS LTD </TD><TD class=ticker>FM </TD><TD class=weight>2.03% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>INMET MINING CORPORATION </TD><TD class=ticker>IMN </TD><TD class=weight>1.25% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>SHERRITT INTERNATIONAL CORP </TD><TD class=ticker>S </TD><TD class=weight>1.24% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>SINO-FOREST CORPORATION-CL A </TD><TD class=ticker>TRE </TD><TD class=weight>1.18% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP </TD><TD class=ticker>PAA </TD><TD class=weight>1.11% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>IVANHOE MINES LTD </TD><TD class=ticker>IVN </TD><TD class=weight>1.07% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>LUNDIN MINING CORP </TD><TD class=ticker>LUN </TD><TD class=weight>1.03% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>EQUINOX MINERALS LTD </TD><TD class=ticker>EQN </TD><TD class=weight>1.01% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>METHANEX CORP </TD><TD class=ticker>MX </TD><TD class=weight>0.99% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>NOVA CHEMICALS CORP </TD><TD class=ticker>NCX </TD><TD class=weight>0.95% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>HUDBAY MINERALS INC </TD><TD class=ticker>HBM </TD><TD class=weight>0.93% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>IAMGOLD CORP </TD><TD class=ticker>IMG </TD><TD class=weight>0.93% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>ELDORADO GOLD CORPORATION </TD><TD class=ticker>ELD </TD><TD class=weight>0.90% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>FNX MINING CO INC </TD><TD class=ticker>FNX </TD><TD class=weight>0.89% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES </TD><TD class=ticker>SSO </TD><TD class=weight>0.86% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>EASTERN PLATINUM LTD </TD><TD class=ticker>ELR </TD><TD class=weight>0.83% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>THOMPSON CREEK METALS COMPANY </TD><TD class=ticker>TCM </TD><TD class=weight>0.73% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>GERDAU AMERISTEEL CORP </TD><TD class=ticker>GNA </TD><TD class=weight>0.72% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>SILVER WHEATON CORP </TD><TD class=ticker>SLW </TD><TD class=weight>0.70% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>HARRY WINSTON DIAMOND CORP </TD><TD class=ticker>HW </TD><TD class=weight>0.57% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>LABRADOR IRON ORE ROYALTY TR </TD><TD class=ticker>LIF-U </TD><TD class=weight>0.55% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>SILVERCORP METALS INC </TD><TD class=ticker>SVM </TD><TD class=weight>0.55% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>RED BACK MINING INC </TD><TD class=ticker>RBI </TD><TD class=weight>0.54% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>MAJOR DRILLING GROUP INTL </TD><TD class=ticker>MDI </TD><TD class=weight>0.51% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC </TD><TD class=ticker>NG </TD><TD class=weight>0.48% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>QUADRA MINING LTD </TD><TD class=ticker>QUA </TD><TD class=weight>0.42% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>CENTERRA GOLD INC </TD><TD class=ticker>CG </TD><TD class=weight>0.41% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>WEST FRASER TIMBER CO LTD </TD><TD class=ticker>WFT </TD><TD class=weight>0.39% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>TIMBERWEST FOREST CRP- STP U </TD><TD class=ticker>TWF-U </TD><TD class=weight>0.39% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>ANVIL MINING LTD </TD><TD class=ticker>AVM </TD><TD class=weight>0.38% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>GOLDEN STAR RESOURCES LTD </TD><TD class=ticker>GSC </TD><TD class=weight>0.37% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>CCL INDUSTRIES INC - CL B </TD><TD class=ticker>CCL/B </TD><TD class=weight>0.36% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>HIGH RIVER GOLD MINES LTD </TD><TD class=ticker>HRG </TD><TD class=weight>0.34% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>GAMMON GOLD INC </TD><TD class=ticker>GAM </TD><TD class=weight>0.33% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>GOLD EAGLE MINES LTD </TD><TD class=ticker>GEA </TD><TD class=weight>0.31% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>NORTHGATE MINERALS CORP </TD><TD class=ticker>NGX </TD><TD class=weight>0.30% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>FRONTEER DEVELOPMENT GROUP I </TD><TD class=ticker>FRG </TD><TD class=weight>0.27% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>SHORE GOLD INC </TD><TD class=ticker>SGF </TD><TD class=weight>0.26% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>ALAMOS GOLD INC </TD><TD class=ticker>AGI </TD><TD class=weight>0.26% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>CANFOR CORPORATION </TD><TD class=ticker>CFP </TD><TD class=weight>0.26% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>NORBORD INC </TD><TD class=ticker>NBD </TD><TD class=weight>0.23% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>CASCADES INC </TD><TD class=ticker>CAS </TD><TD class=weight>0.22% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>TANZANIAN ROYALTY EXPLORATIO </TD><TD class=ticker>TNX </TD><TD class=weight>0.21% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>CRYSTALLEX INTL CORP </TD><TD class=ticker>KRY </TD><TD class=weight>0.20% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=fund_name>BREAKWATER RESOURCES LTD </TD><TD class=ticker>BWR


</TD><TD class=weight>0.18%


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

There are some excellent companies within this fund. I currently own Teck Cominco, Agrium, First Quantum Minerals, Quadra Mining and HudBay Minerals as individual equities and have owned Potash and Agnico-Eagle in the very recent past. This is an excellent fund with management fees that are a bit high (capped at 0.55%) but the rate of return is outstanding. This is traded like a normal stock so you can own as much or as little as you'd like. There is also a small dividend with this holding as well, which is just a small cherry on top.

Information page below:
http://www.ishares.ca/product_info/fund_overview.do?ticker=XMA

[Flasch186]

Midday recap

Quite a morning!

The Microsoft bid on Yahoo was a surprise although there had been rumors of something in the works. The talk of a private bailout of the bond insurers still is floating about but the bond rating companies are putting pressure on the consortium(s) to work fast.

The jobs came in at a surprising contraction but to be honest all of the massive revisions of past numbers really make one scoff at the initial reports. you have to act on them but who knows where they'll end up after theyre revised.

I dodged a massive bullet yesterday on Google (GOOG) and am thinking of pairing down some holdings ahead of European banks reporting earnings next week. My opinion, is that if those banks show losses due to subprime (which I almost think that there is no doubt they will) it could be fodder for the hawks to say that the mess is global in nature and the worst is yet to come. Certainly it means more rate cuts but it could put that volatility right on the fire and continue our bearish trends.

any thoughts?

[st.cronin]

I like that fund, NoSkilz.

[MikeVic]

I've been investing pretty much exclusively in mutual funds for about 10 years now, and I'm not all that happy with their performance. I'm really thinking of moving to a more index-fund based approach, and these comments are only strengthening that.

That said, I'm actually pretty skeptical about investing in the markets, indexed or otherwise, at all. "They" like to claim that all the market does is go up over time, but it seems like a narrow view that happens to coincide with North America rising to prominence over the last 100 years. I see our economy taking major hits over my lifetime, and it makes me worry that the market may never rise significantly enough in the next 30 years for me to earn enough returns to retire.

The problem is, with interest rates on bonds or whatnot so low, what are my other options?

Exactly, I don't like the low interest in other savings options.

[MikeVic]

Thanks Kodos and NoSkillz for the index fund recommendations! I'll be adding the one NoSkillz mentioned to my Google tracker thing and checking out the ones Kodos mentioned. $10,000 minimum investment is a bit much for me right now on a few of those though. But I could do $3,000.

I'm just saving up for one day that I buy a house. Not sure when that'll be, but in the meantime I don't mind learning about this stuff and trying my hand.

[Flasch186]

end of day

It's madness, I tell ya, Madness.

All week long we were hoping that the jobs report wouldnt be that bad. As a matter of fact it seemed to become the lynchpin for the recession watch. Completely front burner stuff. It came out this morning, way worse than expected and the market jumped higher. It gave some back but then found it's way to climbing to finish near it's intraday high.

Now some are going to say that the Microsoft offer added some gas to the engine. theyre going to say that the private bailout talk of the mortgage bond insurers is helping to fuel this rally. some are going to say that it is the prospect of MORE rate cuts from the FED. However, I gotta tell ya, it's mind boggling to think that all week a bad Jobs number would predicate a selloff only to get a worse than bad #, and those same bears say, "Welp, now we'll get another .50 point cut, perhaps intrameeting." WHAT!? Why didnt you say that on Wednesday when the ADP report came out?

Anyways, I almost sold my WalMart stake today (WMT), XLF and CSCO are here to stay. Still revelling in the Google (GOOG) save.

im looking at a pull back at some point to enter into perhaps Sirius Sattelite radio (SIRI) again, hopefully pre-merger decision (well only pre merger decision). I've been burned on this stock so much that it's actually an emotional thing to try to get some back from this bastard. Which BTW I do not recommend to anyone else to behave this way. I hate this stock though and want to lasso it in some.

Anyways, next week is going to be a monster week. We either hang onto this rally or we have a sell off of large proportions (IMO). The European banks could be holding a bunch of crap on their balance sheets and if they do it could get ugly. Think Societe Generale.

[mrsimperless]

I honestly don't understand why more people are not upset with the fed. Many signs are pointing to inflation and we've had 3/4 and 1/2 rate cuts in less than a month with talk of even MORE? All they are doing is prolonging things with the stock market and putting the killing blows on the dollar to boot.

The fan is plugged in and running on high while the load is at terminal velocity and heading toward earth. When it hits things are going to get real ugly real fast.

[Flasch186]

February 4

This will be a light week when it comes to data but it is heavy with talking points. Many of the Fed Governors will be speaking including a former fed head. This could make for a very volatile market as the markets seem to grab hold on anything newsworthy to push the market one way or the other. I would like to see a tame week as I have some money on the sideline that Im not sure if/when/what to enter. There is the chase on Sirius (SIRI), there is Quanta Services (PWR), E-Trade is probably under valued at this point (ETFC), Advanced Micro Devices seems to have weathered the Intel storm (AMD / INTC), hmmmmmmm what to do?

Today's futures point lower after Bush announces that the budget deficit will double this year due to the downturn in the economy and lessened corporate tax receipts. Warren Buffet once said that this and the trade deficit was the biggest threat to our country. Im not sure if this is just the market looking for something to react to or if it will end up being an issue going forward. My opinion is that this is just today's news and something will trump this and then something will trump that, etc. We certainly seem to be in a market that has a very short attention span.

Google (GOOG) has stuck their nose in the Microsoft (MSFT) Yahoo (YHOO) takeover bid by injecting some Anti-trust thoughts. There is speculation that Yahoo may be turning to Google to work on a partnership that can allow Yahoo to escape the grasp of Microsoft. Microsoft has stated that they "Expect Yahoo to accept their generous offer soon."

[Flasch186]

My holdings are pulling back rather sharply as the market seems to be heading to a downer of a day on very little data and news outside of the MSFT/YHOO/GOOG mess and Soc. Gen. getting investigated from the micro to the macro.

the leaders last week, financials, homebuilders, consumer discretionary are leading the down trend today.

[Flasch186]

midday

Google (GOOG) just crossed below $500/share for the first time that I can remember. Wow, shows how little I know, I thought this looked attractive at $600.

[Flasch186]

end of day

Profit taking rules the day and the leaders last week take the biggest hits. I also take a hit and do not share in the profit taking. Hopefully we only see a day or two of this profit taking and we start a climb through the rest of the week. Cisco (CSCO), which I own, reports Wednesday and unlike Google (GOOG) I think Im going to hang on to this one through the report. The CEO Chambers has been a light in the storm and has been generally positive about things going forward. This could be good or bad, should he change his tune we could see a Cisco selloff but if he stands pat it could mean that, on the right day, this one heads a bit higher.

[bionicgrov]

$10,000 minimum investment is a bit much for me right now on a few of those though. But I could do $3,000.

Have you looked at Interactive Brokers? I have been using them for 8 years and love them.

Their commissions are very very cheap and they have some of the best execution in the business.

Also, you might want to think about doing something simple like read the articles on MSN money or CBS Marketwatch just to keep current on the financial news.

[bionicgrov]

midday

Google (GOOG) just crossed below $500/share for the first time that I can remember. Wow, shows how little I know, I thought this looked attractive at $600.

GOOG's problem is they don't provide guidance. They missed on the quarter and then provided no look into how they are going to keep up these astronomical growth rates going forward. In a market like this, you have to be procative to keep your stock price up.

On a side note, I'm happy with results of my GOOG puts I bought on Wednesday!! :eek:

[Flasch186]

Wow, Im sure you are. I dont play the options market although I probably would make more money than I do now. Im just too averse to the risk and for some strange reason feel I have less risk just buying and selling the actual shares. Im an idiot.

[Flasch186]

February 5

Apparently Australia raises interest rates last night. I'm not sure what this does to our markets but it certainly gives us a peek into the fact that in other corners of the world they still may be worried about inflation, well except in China.

Apparently the snowstorms in china have brought to a halt the great big economy so they're government is looking at a stimulus package to get the train moving again. Thus the China stocks, ETF's, and exchanges were way up yesterday. Whether or not they do it is a different story.

Futures have us moving a bit downward off the open but we'll see how it plays out during the day. any bit of news positive or negative could move the market one way or the other depending on how it's interpreted.

[bionicgrov]

Wow, Im sure you are. I dont play the options market although I probably would make more money than I do now. Im just too averse to the risk and for some strange reason feel I have less risk just buying and selling the actual shares. Im an idiot.

It was a gamble. I was risking 60% of the cost of the option if the stock went the other way.

Buying and selling options outright is very risky and you will lose money 85% of the time. If you ever decide to mess with options, I would stick mostly to selling options, ie. covered calls. 85% of all options expire worthless. If you have a stock tht you are holding for a long time and want to add 3-6% per year, you could sell calls at about 10-15% above market price for the next month. It won't seem like much, but you will be adding a few % points to your annual return by doing that.

[Marc Vaughan]

I think GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) look a reasonable bet, nice large multi-national pharma company, very good historically and with decent dividend payouts (circa 4.5%) generally. Nice safe bet in times of trouble imho.

Sony (SNE) is a stock I think has potential, they've had lean times in recent years - however in Europe the PS3 is starting to come through (yeah i was surprised, although if it doesn't get some games soon it'll be dead in the water again imho) and they've won the format war for HD so things almost 'must' pick up for them soon. Opinions?

[Flasch186]

i wonder if the better play on the Gaming sector isnt Gamestop due to their residual revenue from used games?

[Flasch186]

midday

The services sector report came out much weaker than expected and has led to a pretty large sell off today (-~270).

Merrill Lynch came right out and said that they now expect an intermeeting rate cut since the next schedule FOMC meeting isnt until March.

[path12]

Sony (SNE) is a stock I think has potential, they've had lean times in recent years - however in Europe the PS3 is starting to come through (yeah i was surprised, although if it doesn't get some games soon it'll be dead in the water again imho) and they've won the format war for HD so things almost 'must' pick up for them soon. Opinions?

Boy, I don't know. Even winning the Blu-Ray battle the PS3 still looks to be the loser in this generation. And I still haven't seen the 'must-have' game on the horizon for PS3.

[MikeVic]

This looks like a bad day today. I have that index fund recommended by NoSkillz and Gamestop on watch and they're both down a bit. The entire market seems to be down quite a bit too. Nintendo is hard to follow since I'm assuming it's traded while I'm sleeping. :p I also have my mutual fund tracked, but it's only updated once all day. I expect it to be down tomorrow after a couple of up days.

[Marc Vaughan]

Boy, I don't know. Even winning the Blu-Ray battle the PS3 still looks to be the loser in this generation. And I still haven't seen the 'must-have' game on the horizon for PS3.

I agree with you on the games front - on the sales front in Europe the PS-3 is performing much better than in America, but a lot will be decided by whether it gets the publisher support during the coming year ..

[Flasch186]

end of day

ugh. Worst loss in a year and ended the day at its worst levels. Not good as the bears say its time to test those lows. Bulls will say that we're due for this profit taking after our most recent run. The NASDAQ got hurt today bad.

My holdings weren;t destroyed too much. Wal Mart (WMT) hung in there, Cisco (CSCO) has already been hurt so bad that it didnt get too killed (~-.55), and the XLF (-$1.23) was a haircut I can live with. I have about 50% of my portfolio in cash on the sidelines which is probably the best place to be unless you can play this volatility. The moneymakers had better.

[Flasch186]

February 6

Our markets are looking to take a breath, it seems, after yesterday's horrible day. Asian stocks sold off last night but that may be because theyre attached to the end of our leash that we whipped around. If we only have 1 or 2 more moderately bad days we may be able to start another leg up. Next time though Im taking profits, like the other smarter people.

Mortgage applications rose to their highest # in 4 years led by New applications. Good sign along with Labor productivity rising more than expected.

[NoSkillz]

It's days like today that prove that trading stocks isn't for the feint of heart.

Coming off a week where my portfolio gained 5.5% (versus +3.28% for the TSX) and everything was right in the world, the last three days have seen my stocks slip over 6%.

Research in Motion (RIM - TSX) was down almost 5% alone today and eight of my nine holdings were down.

Again, I'm comfortable with the volatility in my portfolio but it's days like today that I can only wince when looking at the damage.

Buying opportunities abound but you always have to wonder whether we've actually hit a bottom or if we're in store for more down days ahead...

[Flasch186]

end of day

sorry for the lack of wrap up. I actually sold not one but 2 homes today.

Welp, Cisco (CSCO) reported after hours and gave a weak outlook.....and stock goes down which is crazy considering how far it's fallen over the last 6 months or so.

One of the FED governors brought up "worries about core inflation remaining elevated" and that coincided with a sell off wherein the markets finished the day at its worst levels.

Tomorrow will not be a good day IMO and things will look shoddy for the weeks going forward. Luckily I have quite a bit of money on the sidelines, comparably and the holdings I do have I feel fairly confident about regarding weathering most of the storm (XLF, CSCO, WMT).

[st.cronin]

sorry for the lack of wrap up. I actually sold not one but 2 homes today.

Woot!

[MikeVic]

I'm looking at etrade, and was wondering if someone could help me out understanding the fees and stuff:
https://www.canada.etrade.com/pages/home/fees3.shtml

From what I understood, it's free to transfer money in, and free to transfer money out if I use their Quick Transfer method to put money in my bank.

I don't know what a Certificate is, but I assume the Safekeeping, withdrawal, and holding fees all apply to something I wouldn't be doing.

I kind of wanted to put some money in there but not necessarily do any trading with it just yet. And if I did trading, it would be to buy an index fund or something, so I wouldn't have many transactions anyway. The Low Activity Account Admin Fee (per account) seems to apply to me only if I have $5000 or less in the account or make less than 2 trades every 6 months. Does this sound right?

[Flasch186]

Woot!

thanks....it's been awhile. One is set to close in a few weeks too!! Double WOOT!

[Kodos]

Sounds right to me. They like to encourage you to trade, and to carry a certain minimum amount to avoid higher fees.

[Flasch186]

February 7

This morning the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged. (this is a correction from earlier)

Jobless claims come out in about an hour and that number should be in line with of the other bad news we've seen over the last week.
Pending Home Sales comes out today too, and we're looking for a little step up here to see some of the inventory diminish.

Great. Wal-Mart (WMT) disappoints on Jan. same store sales so I expect WMT to sell of for today. :( Surprising because people will buy their consumer staples there but their saying that people are holding giftcards longer and using them on groceries. This is not a good sign for the economy and Im not sure that the people that are in the camp of "small quick recession" will be able to remain in that camp long if the jobless claims # comes out big. Like St. Cronin said above it might have been the right play to have been defensive at this point and I'm not sure it's too late to sell an impending rally, perhaps on an intermeeting cut or something and move into a more defensive name like Healthcare or Consumer Staples, ie. Altria (MO) or Coca-Cola (KO) or cash.

A couple of other retail numbers are a little higher or flat, like Abercrombie and Fitch and Aeropostale so that's a tad unusual. Hmmm, what to make of this BJ's and Costco blow away numbers. It may be that Wal-Mart simply blew it which would be unforgivable considering that in an economic downturn people would shop at WalMart more if they have to shop.

[Flasch186]

DOLA

this Jobless claims # is going to be a huge bellweather. If it's bad we will see an unreal selloff IMO.

The jobs # actually comes down compared to last month. this is very very good and possibly will stem a one day blowout sale. Still today's #'s, Cisco's forecast, Bear Stearns being investigated do not look good for my holdings outside of cash. I do not look forward to watching today...

Cramer just crushed Cisco (CSCO) on Squawk saying he sees it going down to the $11/share range and he is completely off of tech which I interpret to mean Intel (INTC), Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), etc.

Im not sure what to do, Cronin said to sell it off and he may have been right. Im hitting the trifecta today with WMT and CSCO and XLF.

[Flasch186]

shows how much I know. My holdings arent getting killed and the market is basically flat to a little down. hmmm, dont listen to me.

[st.cronin]

What is Bear Stearns being investigated for?

[Flasch186]

What is Bear Stearns being investigated for?

Theyre (the FEDS) are trying to see if there is culpability for "something" in the securitized debt debacle. The CNBC guy broke it this morning that it is NOT the SEC, but the AG.

...on the markets front it seems that people are saying, "well it could've been worse" and the markets are somewhat treading water and there is some bulls saying that we're loading up for another rally. I dont know though. It might be time to sell the next rally. BTW I love Gamestop (GME) under $50.

[st.cronin]

Hmm. Sounds like an opportunity to me. Bear Stearns is not going to get shut down - they may get a slap on the wrist, but they'll be back.

[Flasch186]

I just couldnt dip into one of the big banks or firms which is why I went XLF. If I pick the wrong one and the shoe drops I could get hurt a ton so the XLF felt like a lower risk (lower reward) way of betting on a financial turnaround this year. I actually may buy more XLF if it pulls back again.

[Flasch186]

end of day

Today, literally, may have been the most confusing day I've seen thus far this year. This morning's news was bad across the board. Retail numbers were bad, the pending home sales numbers we're bad, the ECB held pat on rates, and the jobs number was bad but not necessarily as bad as expected. The market goes up. What?

Cisco (CSCO) up, Wal-Mart (WMT) up, XLF up....

I dont know what to say. Bulls will say that the bottom is in. Bears will say this is a breather after yesterday's sell-off and the next leg down is coming up.

I say, "What am I supposed to do?" :)

[st.cronin]

Listen to the Bears.

[Flasch186]

I may sell midday tomorrow when I get in and go short with either (SDS) or (QID).

I do see a short term pop coming in China as they may slash rates to try to counter the weather and it's financial effects but would need to read more about it before dipping a toe in.

[Flasch186]

February 8

Consumer Confidence numbers come out at an all time low today but they only started calculating this in 2002. Plus it's not like we didnt already know this simply by going outside or looking at the retail numbers or talking to our friends.

The market is trending slightly down today but who the heck knows what it'll do. I think on any decent rally Im going to sell out of WAl-Mart (WMT) but who knows anymore.

[Flasch186]

end of day

Breaking news:

Goldman Sachs' (GS) employee health care plans will now cover sex reassignment surgery. They said they dont want to be discriminatory.

So the market jumped 5%. Just kidding.

The market has been down all day but has recently cut those losses in half with only about :30 minutes to go. Walmart and the XLF are both down but Cisco has bucked everyone's thoughts by being up after their earnings report the other day and continued it's rise today along with other Nasdaq stalwarts, Apple (AAPL) +3%, Google (GOOG) +2.3%, Rimm (RIMM) +4.6%. If I were in one of those I would sell this rally. Unfortunately Cisco just doesnt behave like these typically volatile stocks so I can't truly take advantage.

Word is that a bond insurer private bailout could be coming to fruition next week and this could definitely spark a small rally. We shall see.

[NoSkillz]

Things were decent in the Canadian market today but with my volatile holdings, it meant a superb day for my portfolio. Research in Motion (RIM - TSX) was the biggest gainer on the index today and I'm currently holding it so that propelled my portfolio to a 2.58% increase today.

Still, I was down for the week. My portfolio fell 2.41%, performing slightly better than the TSX which fell 2.47% over the five day period.

I didn't make one trade during the week, as I'm still convinced that we haven't hit a bottom. I'm still looking to get back into Potash (POT - TSX) but I still believe that its share price will soften somewhat in the next week or so. If it hits $132.00/share, I'll likely make a small purchase with the intention of selling around $142+.

Earnings announcements are due next week for Agrium (AGU - TSX), another agricultural powerhouse, and Teck Cominco (TCK.B - TSX), the largest base metals producer in Canada. I own both stocks and I expect both to report excellent earnings which could propel the share prices higher. Both stocks are represented in that ETF I recommended last week.

[Fighter of Foo]

Intrade has jumped 6 points today on whether there will be a recession in 2008. It's up to 65%. The WSJ yesterday had the odds at 49%. I think we're in recession already and the numbers will show this in a few months.

[Flasch186]

Intrade has jumped 6 points today on whether there will be a recession in 2008. It's up to 65%. The WSJ yesterday had the odds at 49%. I think we're in recession already and the numbers will show this in a few months.

If the numbers bear that out would we then be looking at markets going down or going up as we look for an end of it already?

[Fighter of Foo]

If the numbers bear that out would we then be looking at markets going down or going up as we look for an end of it already?

Well the general trend will be down, but the rallies will still be there. If I could find one, I'd buy a volatility option because it's far and away the safest bet.

We're still having weekly or even daily rallies as I'm sure you know, but they're becoming shorter and shorter lived. The thing keeping the market up is the hope that the recession will be short and soft, like last time. There's little chance of that happening and once the market realizes it we'll have a full fledged bear market.

[MikeVic]

As I said earlier (I think), I've been following that index fund NoSkillz recommended, and for the last week or so it's been doing good. ;)

I just filled out an application with ETrade, and it kind of confused me. As I'm filling it out, it says to include a cheque made payable to blah blah for at least $1.00. Then when I'm reviewing the application at the end, the items mention a void cheque, but nothing about a $1.00 cheque... I also picked "Account Transfer" as my method of cash transfer.

What I'm wondering is whether the main account page has a better summary:
-$1.00 cheque made payable to blah.
-Application form.
-Photocopy of driver's license.
-W8-Ben.

And once I get approved or whatever, I'd use a "Quick Transfer Authorization Form" to transfer in money. The form requires an ETrade Account Number, which I obviously don't have yet.

Does this sound good, or would ETrade want money somehow (cheque) more than $1 for now?

[Flasch186]

rare weekend post

looks like Yahoo (YHOO) will reject Microsoft's (MSFT) bid for them stating that they feel the bid "massively undervalues the company". Not sure if that's true or not but it certainly was not reflective in their stock price prior to the offer.

[NoSkillz]

As I said earlier (I think), I've been following that index fund NoSkillz recommended, and for the last week or so it's been doing good. ;)

I just filled out an application with ETrade, and it kind of confused me. As I'm filling it out, it says to include a cheque made payable to blah blah for at least $1.00. Then when I'm reviewing the application at the end, the items mention a void cheque, but nothing about a $1.00 cheque... I also picked "Account Transfer" as my method of cash transfer.

What I'm wondering is whether the main account page has a better summary:
-$1.00 cheque made payable to blah.
-Application form.
-Photocopy of driver's license.
-W8-Ben.

And once I get approved or whatever, I'd use a "Quick Transfer Authorization Form" to transfer in money. The form requires an ETrade Account Number, which I obviously don't have yet.

Does this sound good, or would ETrade want money somehow (cheque) more than $1 for now?

I wish I could help you here but I'm completely unaware of how ETrade goes about their business. There must be someone on here who is using them that can help.

[MikeVic]

I e-mailed them, so hopefully I get an answer shortly. :)

[Fidatelo]

I'm not sure if this fits here, but over my vacation I read Maxed Out by James Scurlock (http://www.amazon.com/Maxed-Out-Hard-Times-Credit/dp/1416532536/ref=pd_bbs_sr_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1202686271&sr=8-3), which is about the effect easy credit has had on the U.S. over the last 30 years.

I found the book pretty fascinating, and recommend it highly. Apparently there is a movie as well, either one would probably give similiar information. It reinforces many of the worries I have about the current state of the U.S. economy, although unfortunately it doesn't do much in terms of forecasting where things will go from here (which is what I'm more intersted in from an investment view).

[Flasch186]

February 11

We'll likely get a little bounce to start the week after last week's negativity.

Netflix (NFLX) announced that they will exclusively carry Blu-Ray.

Apple (AAPL) had a reiteration of a price target in the 200's with a "Buy" rating. I am thinking of trying to average my way into this later this week on a pull back BUT there is a lot of people who think we'll see a retracement to the lows this week or next. You never know when the Fed will throw an intermeeting cut out there.

We should get some data this week to give us a peak into the economy.

Dow changes a few components to it's industrial average removing Altria (MO) and Honeywell (HON) and adding Bank of America (BAC) and Chevron (CVX). This might get a slight bounce to the XLF but nothing to write home about. Bigger news to that holding would be bond insurer news this week.

[Fighter of Foo]

Apologies for not getting to this sooner, but why the optimism this morning? A bunch of banks are trying to dump a bunch of their bad debt for pennies on the dollar this week. It was front page of the journal today:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120269228578457765.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

[Flasch186]

Apologies for not getting to this sooner, but why the optimism this morning? A bunch of banks are trying to dump a bunch of their bad debt for pennies on the dollar this week. It was front page of the journal today:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120269228578457765.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

It was the futures that I was recapping. It seems that that sentiment was prebell and shortlived.

[Fighter of Foo]

Ah, gotcha.

[Flasch186]

end of day

After the huge letdown early form the AIG (AIG) news regarding the possibility of much larger writedown than previously expected the markets have shaken it off and rallied 100+ points to be positive right now. We shall see if anyone starts to sell into this rally like those of last week. We end the day up and my Wal-Mart stake went up while the XLF went down. All in all, it couldve been much worse.

[MikeVic]

Do you guys have extra insurance over top of whatever you get with work? I met with a financial planner, and after the initial little bit it felt like he was just trying to sell insurance to me. Life insurance and some big illness thig that covers cancer, diabetes, etc.

I have stuff through work, but he says this is more secure or something. And said I should do that before considering investing... just wondering if my bullshit detector is broken. :) I don't think a lot of people do that. It would be like $150/month for the combined stuff.

[Flasch186]

February 12

Well this morning has been quite interesting. I wake up to find out that Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway has offered to reinsure the 3 big Bond insurers. He has given them 30 days to find a better deal but he basically would reissue them paper with triple A ratings through his company. Kind of sad that he is coming to the rescue of this.

Futures point higher on the news and I wonder if this truly isn't the signal that THIS is the bottom of the financial issues. We may bounce along the bottom but perhaps this "spike" isn't the "jump the shark" moment for financials.

Things are looking up this morning and I wonder if it isn't that time I was talking about to try and buy into some stuff on the pull back? Who knows. Anyways, Google, Apple, Rimm (especially considering the outage yesterday) may start a small rally in the tech sector.

[Noop]

Question for those who know. Given that we may be facing a recession(or maybe in one depending on who you) could it get as bad as the great depression? I have been reading a lot of articles today and basically the gist of most of them has been things are much worst then we realize. I even ventured to one of those tin fold sites and reading some of those crazy articles says we need to go to war with Iran in order to save our economy.

I am basically looking for some reassurance because I am about to finish school this summer so the future is coming at me.

[MikeVic]

GM reported giant losses last quarter and last year... $722M in the quarter, and $38.7B in the year!! Wow.

[Flasch186]

Question for those who know. Given that we may be facing a recession(or maybe in one depending on who you) could it get as bad as the great depression? I have been reading a lot of articles today and basically the gist of most of them has been things are much worst then we realize. I even ventured to one of those tin fold sites and reading some of those crazy articles says we need to go to war with Iran in order to save our economy.

I am basically looking for some reassurance because I am about to finish school this summer so the future is coming at me.

I think it's just cyclical and we'll see leadership coming out of the recession that I believe we're in, in groups that tend to lead us out of these except housing which would be the last ones to lead us out.

I just bought a Short on the market in the form of the ETF SDS which is an ultrashort therefore it doubles the play.

This Buffett stuff is a farce (one bond insurer rejected the offer already) as it simply is another "potential". I didnt sell my other holdings because I think that they are decently situated to weather a sell off but I see the retail numbers tomorrow being dismal.

BTW Intel (INTC) has confirmed that the EU has raided it's German offices in an anti-trust investigation.

[Kodos]

Do you guys have extra insurance over top of whatever you get with work? I met with a financial planner, and after the initial little bit it felt like he was just trying to sell insurance to me. Life insurance and some big illness thig that covers cancer, diabetes, etc.

I have stuff through work, but he says this is more secure or something. And said I should do that before considering investing... just wondering if my bullshit detector is broken. :) I don't think a lot of people do that. It would be like $150/month for the combined stuff.

I'm no expert, but this sounds like crap to me. Are you single or married? Do you have kids?

[MikeVic]

I'm no expert, but this sounds like crap to me. Are you single or married? Do you have kids?

Single, no kids. I thought it was stupid and I kept wanting to walk out.

[Kodos]

It seems like your coverage from work should be adequate then. But, like I said, I'm not an expert. What do other people think?

[NoSkillz]

Do you guys have extra insurance over top of whatever you get with work? I met with a financial planner, and after the initial little bit it felt like he was just trying to sell insurance to me. Life insurance and some big illness thig that covers cancer, diabetes, etc.

I have stuff through work, but he says this is more secure or something. And said I should do that before considering investing... just wondering if my bullshit detector is broken. :) I don't think a lot of people do that. It would be like $150/month for the combined stuff.

Tell him you've got insurance, you're not interested in more and if he continues to bring it up, say you're going to another advisor. That will get him/her to stop.

These advisors probably make just as much trying to sell insurance as they do managing portfolios. It's not necessarily a sham but you're already taken care of at work so just say no.

[Flasch186]

I would bet it's a supplementary income for him and unfortunately he's leaning on that.

[Fidatelo]

Question for those who know. Given that we may be facing a recession(or maybe in one depending on who you) could it get as bad as the great depression? I have been reading a lot of articles today and basically the gist of most of them has been things are much worst then we realize. I even ventured to one of those tin fold sites and reading some of those crazy articles says we need to go to war with Iran in order to save our economy.

I am basically looking for some reassurance because I am about to finish school this summer so the future is coming at me.

I'm just an average schmoe Canadian, so take everything I write with that in mind. I have no inside info whatsoever.

I think the U.S. is heading towards a serious recession/possible depression, but the timing is based on how many more tricks the government pulls out of their sleave. I think they will avoid anything serious right now, only to make it worse when they eventually run out of cards.

The crappy thing is that the Canadian economy (and much of the world's) is extremely reliant on America. Whenever the house of cards down there falls down, the destruction will ripple up here too, just hopefully not to the same degree.

[Flasch186]

end of day

Late day move south led by the tech sector BUT we end the day higher overall. The mortgage lenders freeze foreclosure proceedings for 30 days to give people and banks more time to rejigger deals. Light volume in trading leads most people to think that these short rallies are unsustainable.

I stand flat today or a little up with Walmart (WMT) and the XLF, Cisco (CSCO) finishes a tad down. I end up slightly higher in my short position (SDS). In better news, my wife sold a home today :)

[MikeVic]

I didn't know your wife was in real estate too??

[Flasch186]

I didn't know your wife was in real estate too??

yup she does the same thing i do but in a neighborhood on a different side of the city.

[bionicgrov]

Listen to the Bears.


Agreed.

[bionicgrov]

Question for those who know. Given that we may be facing a recession(or maybe in one depending on who you) could it get as bad as the great depression? I have been reading a lot of articles today and basically the gist of most of them has been things are much worst then we realize. I even ventured to one of those tin fold sites and reading some of those crazy articles says we need to go to war with Iran in order to save our economy.

I am basically looking for some reassurance because I am about to finish school this summer so the future is coming at me.

The first sentence is your post is so loaded. I wish I knew. The only hope that you have is to read as much info as you can and try to filter what is garbage and what isn't. Sorry for the rant. Now for my 2 cents.

I do think that we will go into a recession. Actually I think that we are in the beginning of one right now. The issue with that statement is that most of the time economists don't know that a recession has taken place until we are 5-6 months into it (or over it). We are in a consumer spending recession right now. Everyone is pulling in the purse strings. Even the super-spenders (those that spend over 150k/year) are slowing it down. Now, do I think it will be as bad as the great depression? No. Becuase the government can pump hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy through rate cuts. And when they do that, people will begin to spend more on their credit cards because the rate is now 14% instead of 18%. I know it doesn't make sense, but never underestimate the level of stupidity in this country. Credit cards were not available in the great depression.

Also, we have many rich, rich countries (China, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) that will buy up our debt and receive 4.5% interest and be very happy. During the great depression, do you think it would have been possible for Citibank to sell 8.5 billion in preferred stock to anyone? No. It is no coincidence that financial companies aren't having any problem raising money. I cannot stress that point enough.

Also, keep a close eye on the level of insiders that are buying their own companies stock. When those levels are the highest, it is usually an indicator that they think the stock is cheap.

Sorry for the long post, but I thought I should share my thoughts. If anyone wants me to shut up, please let me know.

[Flasch186]

on the contrary. That's what this thread is for. Are there any companies you'd like to point out as having a high level of insider buying or selling, in your opinion? Particular companies or price targets you like? Bull or Bearish market? for how long, IYO? etc.

[path12]

I'm hearing bad things about the retail numbers coming out tomorrow. I track retail trends, they're about as poor as I've seen in awhile.

[Flasch186]

February 13

Retail sales - "Better than expected"

later - "mixed report"

Notes: Big jump in auto sales and gas station profits.
take out gas and the retail sales number rose only .1%

So we may see some upward ticks in the market today. It was already ticking higher in futures markets. This actually might continue this short term rally through the week.....which means my short position could wipe out any gains I make in my long holdings, hmmmph. If you havnt learned by yet, do the opposite of whatever I do.

[MikeVic]

So I got a reply from etrade and I thought I understood everything... completed almost all of the required documents, but then I got to the W-8BEN...

Is it really true that I have to apply for a U.S. SSN or Tax ID # and would lost 30% on all profits? This kind of caught me off guard. Do you think this applies to savings account income as well as index funds, stocks, etc. Even though I'm doing this through etrade.ca not .com??

[Flasch186]

profits in the US stock market are taxable.

[NoSkillz]

Look for that ETF fund I mentioned earlier to have a really good day today...

Agrium (AGU - TSX; AGU - NYSE) reported ridiculously strong earnings this morning, obliterating expectations and setting company records in the process.

It's a very strong company and is really undervalued at its current share price. I'm trying to add a little bit to my position today, strange for me to jump on a stock on an 'up' day but I expect it to hit $70.00 in the very short term. I'm looking at getting in around $65.25 or so but if it doesn't drop, I'll be content to sit with the shares I already have.

[NoSkillz]

So I got a reply from etrade and I thought I understood everything... completed almost all of the required documents, but then I got to the W-8BEN...

Is it really true that I have to apply for a U.S. SSN or Tax ID # and would lost 30% on all profits? This kind of caught me off guard. Do you think this applies to savings account income as well as index funds, stocks, etc. Even though I'm doing this through etrade.ca not .com??

Man, ETrade is a hell of a lot more complicated than my Waterhouse account!

I'd call them and ask just to be sure. Profits both in the US and Canada are taxable - in Canada, it's based on a percentage of your normal tax rate (I think it's half). However, if you are putting all of your money in an RRSP investment account, you ARE NOT taxed. I assume based on your previous posts that this is a glorified savings account for you and you plan on drawing money occasionally - therefore, if that's the case, you have to be prepared to pay tax on your capital gains.

When I got set up with TD Waterhouse, they set me up with an RRSP investment account, a 'Cash' investment account and a US investment account. I didn't have to fill out any additional forms, from what I recall, to set up the US account but I haven't made one single purchase in the US market yet.

Again, I'd call just to clarify why/if it's necessary to fill out those forms.

[Noop]

Thank you to those who answered my questions your input is very much appreciated.

[MikeVic]

Their customer service is open until midnight EST apparently, so I'll give them a call tonight.

It made some sense to be taxed on U.S. stock market gains. 30% seems like a lot, but whatever.

I just want to make sure it's not on savings account money too. NoSkilz is right, I want this to be more of a savings account where I can try out stocks and funds occasionally. I just think it's such a hassle to get this U.S. SSN. It says on the form that the SSN itself will take 4-6 weeks!

[MikeVic]

Err, Tax ID # I mean. Not SSN.

[Flasch186]

end-ish of day

Well on what I consider to be a misinterpretation of the retail sales numbers the stock market continued its upswing today. Led by a 30% jump in First Solar (FSLR) and Big tech names like Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) the markets gained quite a bit of steam...all in the face of my short position. Once again, the market does exactly the opposite (short term) of what I think finishing just off of their highs.

The president signs the rebate bill so perhaps that added a bit of emotional fuel to the rally but I doubt it added much.

My wife owns 3 shares of FSLR so she proceeds to rub that in today while I watch the market rub my face in it's rally. I have been playing long this whole time and the day I go short it decides to go North? Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

All of a sudden there will be no recession? All of a sudden things are looking good? I dont think so.

[NoSkillz]

end-ish of day

Well on what I consider to be a misinterpretation of the retail sales numbers the stock market continued its upswing today. Led by a 30% jump in First Solar (FSLR) and Big tech names like Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) the markets gained quite a bit of steam...all in the face of my short position. Once again, the market does exactly the opposite (short term) of what I think finishing just off of their highs.

The president signs the rebate bill so perhaps that added a bit of emotional fuel to the rally but I doubt it added much.

My wife owns 3 shares of FSLR so she proceeds to rub that in today while I watch the market rub my face in it's rally. I have been playing long this whole time and the day I go short it decides to go North? Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

All of a sudden there will be no recession? All of a sudden things are looking good? I dont think so.

I haven't read the full report but the retail numbers were better than expected based on my research:

"But equities got a boost from data showing that US retail sales rose by 0.3 per cent last month, against expectations for a 0.3 per cent decline. Core sales, which exclude cars, also increased by 0.3 per cent."

[Flasch186]

I haven't read the full report but the retail numbers were better than expected based on my research:

"But equities got a boost from data showing that US retail sales rose by 0.3 per cent last month, against expectations for a 0.3 per cent decline. Core sales, which exclude cars, also increased by 0.3 per cent."

From what I gather and expect these government number will be revised in months to come. When taking out the autosales and gasoline retailer sales and a light tick up in clothing we see downward trends scattered throughout the retail sector.

I suspect that on the back of the individual retailer's reports on same store sales this will be an outlier.

Due to the above, you should go LONG the market and buy stocks that signal no recession because as we know, what i think is the exact opposite of what will be true.

The 0.3 percent rise in January retail sales, which followed a drop during December, alleviated some of the market's worries that consumers were retrenching because of rising fuel prices, a faltering real estate sector and a choppy stock market. Analysts had expected a 0.3 percent decline in January sales.

However, another report from the department showed that U.S. business inventories grew a little more than expected in December. The data could be a sign of an involuntary buildup of unsold goods on store shelves amid the economic slowdown.

The data was not enough to offset optimism during the session. Stocks have mostly risen in recent days as investors tried to determine whether Wall Street has reached a bottom or whether further sluggishness in the economy will send stocks lower.

"So far this week there has been a positive bias, but I think what you're seeing is people taking a very cautious approach," said Scott Fullman, director of investment strategy at I.A. Englander & Co. "There is no great rush to jump in, and the preservation of capital is more important than growth at this moment."

[NoSkillz]

The TSX was up for the fourth day out of the last five, rising 1.49%. Nice bounce back from yesterday's sell-off.

I had a big day, gaining over 3% on the strength of Agrium's (AGU - TSX: +4.5%) great earnings and Research in Motion's bounce back day after their service went down for three hours on Monday (RIM - TSX: +5.3%).

I purchased some more AGU early in the day and gained about a dollar/share by the session's close so I'm happy about that. Again, I plan on holding until it cracks $70.00/share.

XMA, the ETF fund I recommended earlier, was only up about 1.4% today, with the gains on AGU being weighed down somewhat by the selloff on Potash (POT - TSX).

Still, another great day for me that saw me recover from a 2.7% loss the day previous.

Up and down she goes! I love the market! :)

[Flasch186]

I assume you think the AG momentum play has not broken down and that after this breather will begin another bull run on global growth?

[NoSkillz]

From what I gather and expect these government number will be revised in months to come. When taking out the autosales and gasoline retailer sales and a light tick up in clothing we see downward trends scattered throughout the retail sector.

I suspect that on the back of the individual retailer's reports on same store sales this will be an outlier.

Due to the above, you should go LONG the market and buy stocks that signal no recession because as we know, what i think is the exact opposite of what will be true.

Good stuff.

At this point, it's quite apparent that the market is just BEGGING for good news of any kind...when it hits, the bulls come out to drive prices up.

The good feelings likely won't last, as you've pointed out...regardless, there's money to be made in either case.

[NoSkillz]

I assume you think the AG momentum play has not broken down and that after this breather will begin another bull run on global growth?

To be honest, I don't expect to hold AGU for a very long period of time but the very positive earnings will continue to fuel the segment's momentum for the short term.

I'm still quite bullish on that sector though for the next six months but I don't see the momentum continuing at the same pace as what we saw in 2007, with close to 50% gains in certain fertilizer stocks.

For instance, I love Potash as a company but I just don't see enough value at it's current price to pull the trigger. If there is a sell-off into the mid-$130s, it becomes attractive to me as a potential buy.

I see a bit of an opportunity on Agrium right now but I expect the level of support to drop once the stock cracks $70/share, triggering a selloff.

I can sum it up by saying that I think this particular segment will outperform the rest of the market over the next little while and that alone makes it a pretty good play. I read something earlier today that supports my theory and I'll try to post it later tonight or early tomorrow.

[Flasch186]

Well I fully expect to sell my short position when the market drops a bunch and I can get profitable there (as I expect so it may never happen and this will be the longest bull run in history) and rotate into cash where I can pull the trigger, at some point, on a post-recession leadout like Apple.

[Flasch186]

Afterhours

Morgan Stanley and Bear actually did a Mortgage backed bond deal at 1.2 Million (check that couldve been B as in billions). So there is now a price tag on some mortgage backed securities. Is this a good or bad thing? Probably both, good in that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Bad because Im short the F'n market and it is probably going to go up tomorrow (now you could say because I said this it is likely to go down but I will always say that my $ overrides my verbiage in determining the direction of the market).

[path12]

I haven't read the full report but the retail numbers were better than expected based on my research:

"But equities got a boost from data showing that US retail sales rose by 0.3 per cent last month, against expectations for a 0.3 per cent decline. Core sales, which exclude cars, also increased by 0.3 per cent."

Most department stores had problems, and inventories aren't clearing as fast as usual, which is going to cause deeper discounting and delays in the pipeline at some point.

[Flasch186]

February 14

Jobless claims numbers come out this morning.

Overnight Asia soared.

Bernanke and Paulson speak before Congress today.

In my heart of hearts I suspect that we're going to have another run down at some point and I thought it would be coming sooner rather than later. I have left my short play and hope that we do not continue a massive bullrun at just the wrong time for me. I plan on holding SDS at least for a little while.

UBS posted a massive 4th qtr loss which actually turned them negative for all of 2007....a first.

Comcast posted a major 4th Qtr. gain as consumers spent more on Cable TV. I interpret this to mean that Consumers are tightening up their spending outside the home and compensate by "bundling" and by adding some movie channels at home. I doubt it's because everyone feels really good about their pocketbook so they spent more simply on TV at home while spending more at Darden restaurants, movies, etc.

NY Gov. Elliott Spitzer has put on his gloves regarding this subprime mess and has his sites set on Mortgage lenders, Bond insurers, and mentions complicity when it comes to regulators and administration.

[Fidatelo]

Couldn't the increase in cable TV earnings come from people upgrading to HD channels? I'm not sure how it works in the States, but up here it is more expensive than regular or even digital cable.

[Flasch186]

Couldn't the increase in cable TV earnings come from people upgrading to HD channels? I'm not sure how it works in the States, but up here it is more expensive than regular or even digital cable.

from an article reporting on its earnings:

Among its business segments, Comcast said video revenue rose by 6 percent to $4.5 billion in the quarter. The average cost per customer rose to $61.72 a month from $58.19, which could be a combination of higher prices and more services ordered.

The number of basic subscribers fell by 94,000, compared to a gain of 111,000 in 2006. Even its digital sign-ups slowed, adding 523,000 compared with 614,000 in the prior year.

Comcast's high-speed Internet business saw a 14 percent revenue gain to $1.7 billion. But the company added 331,000 new customers compared with 490,000 in 2006. The average cost per customer fell, as well, to $42.44 from $42.89 a month, perhaps reflecting the effect of competition.

Comcast's phone revenue rose by 73 percent to $523 million. The company signed up 604,000 digital voice subscribers compared with 510,000 in the prior year. However, its circuit-switched business lost 128,000 accounts as Comcast continues to exit this market.

The average cost per digital voice customers fell to $40.34 a month from $43.05.

[Flasch186]

end of day

So Bernanke went to the hill today and told them what I think most of us already knew: things are looking worse and the risks are to the downside.
He added that he and the FOMC would be willing to lower rates as needed.

The market gave something back today in the way of a -175 points.

My shortplay served as a hedge against my long positions although Im still down on it since dipping my toe in. My other holdings fell:

Walmart (WMT) -1.36%
Cisco (CSCO) -2.2%
XLF -.74%

My short SDS +.98

I shouldve sold my WMT yesterday on the run up.

[Kodos]

Just curious. How much are you charged for each transaction? :) (Just asking because it seems like unless the amounts you are trading are fairly substantial, the transaction fees would significantly eat into your gains.)

[Flasch186]

Total I have about 30k in it and $7per but that will be coming down greatly this year as monies begin to come out of it and back into living expenses. Unless of course the Real Estate market changes overnight :)

[Kodos]

I edited my question, because it seemed nosier than I intended it to be. :)

[Flasch186]

I edited my question, because it seemed nosier than I intended it to be. :)

eh, I have nothing to hide. Shoot, Duckman thinks Im a piece of fiction anyways ;)

There is no doubt that it does eat some profits (or adds to losses) but I firmly believe that if I can take a profit of say, $500 and give away $14 for it and then miss some losses (like that Google [Goog] dodge) it shouldn't be a hindrance. I'd love to say I can be in it for the long haul but I am under the assumption that 50% of this money will be coming out of the market over the next 2 years while the Real Estate market tries to come back.

[st.cronin]

The real estate market will definitely come back, sooner than people think.

[Flasch186]

The real estate market will definitely come back, sooner than people think.

eww, I hope youre right but I think it'll take longer than people think (effected regionally)

[SFL Cat]

I don't see the real estate market in Florida coming back in any major way during 2008. If we have another light hurricane season, things could start going the other way next winter.

[Flasch186]

I don't see the real estate market in Florida coming back in any major way during 2008. If we have another light hurricane season, things could start going the other way next winter.


....luckily im in NE Florida which should return before S. Florida but that's not saying much.

[Flasch186]

February 15

Markets head to a lower open on the back of a weaker manufacturing report.

My short (SDS) is way up in premarket.

Walmart (WMT), Cisco (CSCO), XLF are down a little bit so in essence, my short is simply turning out to be a hedge which is fine. Let me explain:

With Cisco (CSCO) Im stuck, I bought it so long ago and have bled on it for so long that I feel like it should go much higher and cant cut it loose.

With Wal-mart (WMT) I feel that this is the one retailer who may do well during the downturn. They were already beaten up over some misbets on their apparel and have moved to correct that. The rebate checks may see a large % of them end up at their stores. It truly is a consumer staple as opposed to a retailer, IMO.

XLF, I am betting that this will be what leads us out of the recession so perhaps Im a bit early on this one but this one I have to try and hold through the year.

The short is due to the second leg down I think we're going to have to either retest or break the lows set a few weeks ago.

[Flasch186]

end of day

Considering the lackluster data set we got today and the likelihood of seeing a recession seeming to be more and more of a reality (outside of Sec. Paulson) the markets held up fairly well only down ~40 points or so.

My short position slid from it's high all day to finish up at a breakeven point for me.

My other positions seemed to cancel eachother out.

Markets are closed on Monday and that could be a part of the reason why no strong moves were made today. Noone likes to be unable to make a move if something should happen over the weekend.

[Marc Vaughan]

Disclaimer - I know absolutely nothing about stocks, shares or anything really ... but in the few weeks I've been following things its been fun, I've learnt a lot AND I haven't lost my shirt yet ... misplaced a t-shirt though ;)

I've got chunks in COP (Oil & Gas), GSK (Pharma) and PT (Telecoms) - all are nice solid companies which dish out reasonable dividends. Theory being the markets dodgy presently so in a worst case scenario I'd simply hold on tight and weather things until the market rights itself (however long that takes).

However so far with the exception of GSK they've bucked the market trend and been upwardly mobile, now Warren Buffets started buyiing into GSK I expect that to kick upward also (went up 2% today).

If you consider any of them I'd opt for COP - They upped their dividend payout for this quarter by 15% today (still the lowest out of the 3 companies at 2.07% though).

Then again before you take that seriously - I'm also considering Denny's (DENN) because I like their breakfasts (and because I'm shocked at how cheap it is currently - could easily make a quick kick buck on this when it rises back to 3.5 which seems a nice 'safe' average for the stock from the 2.99 it is now.

PS - I sold out of E-Trade earlier in the week, 10% up within a week, seemed like a decent return. If it drops back under 5.0 then I'll probably dip in again.

[Flasch186]

im attracted to ETrade (ETFC) too. I think it'll get swiped up at some point at a stiff premium. I love Conoco-Phillips (COP) as well. I think it should have a nice run through August when traditionally it starts to shed some of the big earnings.

[bionicgrov]

on the contrary. That's what this thread is for. Are there any companies you'd like to point out as having a high level of insider buying or selling, in your opinion? Particular companies or price targets you like? Bull or Bearish market? for how long, IYO? etc.

As much as I would like to let you know what stocks I am buying and selling, my job does not permit me to make specific recommendations. I can, however, give sort a "non-employer" sponsored view of what I think is going on in the markets.

I think the March-May timeframe will actually be one of the better buying opportunities in years. And strangely, retail stocks (ETF symbol: RTH) begin to perform very very well before a recession is over.

I really like your train of thought in WMT.

[Flasch186]

my disclaimer is that Im an idiot :)

[Marc Vaughan]

Are there any companies you'd like to point out as having a high level of insider buying or selling
This is something which intruiges me (the insider buying was one of the reasons I went into E-Trade which worked out nicely :D) - I can rummage around and find these metrics on a stock by stock basis but haven't found anywhere on the net which simply dumps a list of stocks where insiders have purchased recently ... any pointers?

[Flasch186]

February 19

And the game starts again today. Sata on inflation and housing this week and the futures look like we'll head for a higher open today.

Wal-Mart today posted its numbers for the 4th wuarter and a 4% gain buoyed by international sales and a focus on lower prices. They revised their top end estimate downward so their premarket price is hedging a tad down but the markets futures again, look very strong at the bell with 2 hours to go.

OPEC stated that they might cut production so it will force oil to continue it's upward climb.

Google (GOOG) is now looking about 530/share when just a few weeks ago it was below the 500 mark. The Nasdaq sure has boosted lastely.

Barclays in England had a very minimal write down which was a nice surprise. There is talk that the death of the consumer might be exaggerated based on WalMart's numbers but I think that that is ridiculous. Wal-Mart is a marketplace for the scared consumer IMO.


Looks like my short position (SDS) is going to get killed at the open. figures, I told you all to do the opposite of what I do. :)

[Marc Vaughan]

If you liked E-Trade then consider TRADESTATION GROUP INC COM (TRAD).

Its a similar company (http://www.tradestation.com/default_2.shtm) and at the moment has a real lull in their shares.

Their report today seems 'mixed' from what I can see so I'd hold off buying for a couple of days but I'd expect them to claw back up to around 14 from their current 10.3 fairly quickly (company growth appears to be 20%+ per year so imho there's no reason for the price to have dropped so far, especially as they don't appear 'lumbered' with mortgage risks in the way which E-Trade is).

[Flasch186]

After listening to some of the sentiment I wonder if it's time (or I was late, again) to sell the short on it's uptick and ride this market up....when that trade settles I can get into one of the stocks I want to be long in, Like Apple (AAPL).

[Flasch186]

midday

Well as the oil prices have surged today the markets have slowly lost steam and the Daq has turned negative. Google (GOOG) down 20.

Wal-Mart (WMT) is still hanging on to some gains but almost everything sans the commodities is starting to sell off and the DJI is only up 30 right now.

[Flasch186]

end of day

remarkably the day gave back all of its gains and finished negative. Hewlett Packard (HPQ) reports after the bell and may already have (im watching soccer).

All of my holdings finish moderately down except Wal-Mart (WMT).

[MikeVic]

Just an update on my etrade stuff... I called them and asked about the Tax ID#, W-8BEN form, etc.

What I was told is that as long as I send a photocopy of my driver's license, I don't need to send a W-8BEN form. And the driver's license/W-8BEN form is just in case I get U.S. stocks or whatever that pay dividends.

Customer Service was super fast, and there weren't annoying menus to go through. Pleasantly surprised. Hopefully he was right too. ;)

[MikeVic]

Do you guys think the Castro thing will affect any stocks at all? I thought I heard briefly on the news that some stocks rose as a result of this.

[Flasch186]

IMO no, this will have no effect on stocks on the whole. There may be a trade or two but it isnt my bag at all.

Although what do I know. I was doubting myself all day and then the day finished down. I think we will have a substantial move down at some point to test a support level or two before moving forward again. I would like to sell a holding to get ready to move into a longer position in Apple or Google but I cant sell anything right now.

[Flasch186]

February 20

Well today will start out on the down side as we get a lot of information. CPI comes out and if this is higher than expected it could mean that inflation concerns come back on the table whihc would make it harder for the FED to continue to lower rates. We will also get housing numbers today. Some people think that the economy will not turn around, no matter what, until the housing situation is solved. This number today will tell us if the starts has slowed to a point where we are actually clearing out some of the inventory.

[Flasch186]

morning

Well both reports came out and theyre not good.

Inflation is slightly back on the table helped out by $100 / barrel oil.

And housing starts rose BUT December's number was revised ridiculously down which is horrible for the reports credibility. Permits were down however which is more forward looking but not down enough to satisfy some people.

The market is moving downward.

[Galaril]

The real estate market will definitely come back, sooner than people think.

I don't know what you were basing this on but I see no way! The signs of inflation have already started to cause the mortgage rates to sky rocket over 6 (6.25%) and I am guessing they will continue to rise. This is on the 30 year fixed rate market which has go to be where most sane people will go when buying a new home this year after the subprime meltdown. If interest rates stay that high there zero chance of the huge existing inventory of fairly new homes getting sold causing more burden on the average person saddle with these properties. For example, we are looking to buy a new home out in the Denver area in April but if the rates continue to go up we will stay put into the summer. I guessing the few buyers out there for new homes will be doing the same. So, if the administration or whoever is expecting a housing recovery anytime in the freeseeable future I got to say fat chance.

[Fighter of Foo]

I haven't read the full report but the retail numbers were better than expected based on my research:

"But equities got a boost from data showing that US retail sales rose by 0.3 per cent last month, against expectations for a 0.3 per cent decline. Core sales, which exclude cars, also increased by 0.3 per cent."

Turns out this is wrong. The report was/is not adjusted for inflation. All of the "gains" were in the form of food and energy price increases.

[Flasch186]

IMO rates will cap out at about 6.5% and be much lower as we get near summer. I hope this is true anyways, i need to refi at some point into a 30 yr. fixed as my ARM adjusts in Oct of '09.

[Flasch186]

midday

the market was down almost 80 on the bad news noted above but because I own the short of the market it has rebounded and is now in positive territory. If I sell my short the market will crash so Ill sit tight ;)

[NoSkillz]

Turns out this is wrong. The report was/is not adjusted for inflation. All of the "gains" were in the form of food and energy price increases.

These reports are rarely, if ever, adjusted for inflation.

[NoSkillz]

FROM FEB. 13th

The TSX was up for the fourth day out of the last five, rising 1.49%. Nice bounce back from yesterday's sell-off.

I had a big day, gaining over 3% on the strength of Agrium's (AGU - TSX: +4.5%) great earnings and Research in Motion's bounce back day after their service went down for three hours on Monday (RIM - TSX: +5.3%).

I purchased some more AGU early in the day and gained about a dollar/share by the session's close so I'm happy about that. Again, I plan on holding until it cracks $70.00/share.

XMA, the ETF fund I recommended earlier, was only up about 1.4% today, with the gains on AGU being weighed down somewhat by the selloff on Potash (POT - TSX).

Still, another great day for me that saw me recover from a 2.7% loss the day previous.

Up and down she goes! I love the market! :)

Hopefully you came along for the ride on AGU this past week.

I topped up with some shares at $65.29/share on the 13th and sold it off today for $71.35, a nice 9.2% gain in a week.

I'm still very high on the stock and the segment in general but will look for the inevitable down day to rebuy back in.

XMA (TSX) continues to ride high as well but again, I'm not currently holding that ETF, instead buying some of the holdings within the fund on a direct basis.

[MikeVic]

I sent my application for etrade this morning! It'll be a while longer, but hopefully I'm on the stock trying circuit soon.

[MikeVic]

dola,
I would've liked to have bought that index fund awhile ago.