Predict the #1 Movie this (and every) Weekend

[Pyser]

oh my, christmas is tough. we'll focus just on the 3 day weekend, but officially opening today or going wider today:

alvin and the chipmunks 2
up in the air

friday:
it's complicated
sherlock holmes
nine
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus


so its either holmes or chipmunks. christmas, family, decline of avatar....i guess i have to go chipmunks 2. 35m? i have no idea how many people see movies this time of year, but i think a lot.

course 35 would be very close to where avatars drop will be. hmm. no, staying with the rodents. for now.

[Pyser]

changing my mind. avatars really solid, definitely going to have repeat business, and wont have a blizzard this week. oh, and word of mouth. 45m.

[Pyser]

new territory for me. ive never changed my mind twice, but here goes. bored families will want to go to the movies, and christmas in general is big movie business. so im still going avatar, but i think it will barely drop off, now. 65m.

[Pyser]

glad i upped it. my first guess was absolutely horrendous. take it away, box office mojo:

The combination of Avatar, Sherlock Holmes, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel and other solid titles as well as Christmas landing on a Friday led to the highest-grossing weekend ever. Overall business came in at around $270 million, up 34 percent over the same timeframe last year and surpassing the previous high of $260.5 million set on July 18-20, 2008, when The Dark Knight and Mamma Mia! debuted.



Living up to its hype as the event picture of the season, Avatar was monolithic with $75.6 million, down a mere two percent from its opening. Though boosted by the Christmas holiday, it nonetheless broke the record for highest-grossing second weekend ever, edging out The Dark Knight's $75.2 million.

[Pyser]

i dont see avatar slowing down. its been sold out, people still cant get in. unlike sherlock. ill say another 50m, which is crazy for week 3.

[Chief Rum]

i dont see avatar slowing down. its been sold out, people still cant get in. unlike sherlock. ill say another 50m, which is crazy for week 3.

Thinking about going back to catch the 3D (which I have heard good things about), since I don't see anything interesting among new entries. Although I might go see The Road. My problem is knowing it's supposed to be a downer going on. I'll admit, my sense of artisitic quality isn't necessarily enough to overcome my general desire to "enjoy" my trips to the theater.

[Pyser]

and 50m was too low. avatar pulled in another 68m, and has now crossed 1b worldwide.

[Pyser]

not too hard to go with avatar again this weekend. $32m.

[Chief Rum]

not too hard to go with avatar again this weekend. $32m.

I actually think Daybreakers and Youth In Revolt will do some business. Both appeal to the older teen-20s-early 30s crowd that droves much movie business, and they are the newest wide release movies of interest in two weeks, more or less.

That said, Avatar is a behemoth. Can't say you're wrong. I actually think Avatar will do better than $32 M (I am leaning $40 M), and I don't see either Daybreakers or Youth In Revolt doing $32 M (I think they'll both do a comfortable $18-22 M).

[Pyser]

$50.3m for avatar. thats gotta be a 4th weekend record. by a lot.

daybreakers did 15m, 7m for youth in revolt

[Chief Rum]

$50.3m for avatar. thats gotta be a 4th weekend record. by a lot.

daybreakers did 15m, 7m for youth in revolt

I believe I read somewhere that that is indeed a record for a 4th weekend.

Came pretty close on Daybreakers, completely missed on Youth In Revolt. Although in retrospect, it doesn't surprise me now, based on how few theaters I found playing it (not scientific, just me looking around at local theaters, but, hey, I am in LA, if it ain't playing here, where the hell is it playing?).

My mistake was forgetting about Sherlock Holmes and the kiddie vote (Chipmunks 2).

[Pyser]

life got in the way, forgot to predict. but avatar took it again, at 41m

[Pyser]

no reason not to think avatar can take tooth fairy, so blue people at 29m.

[Pyser]

another 36m for avatar

avatar is now $6m away from breaking titanics all-time record, already is the biggest movie internationally ever, and is only 48m away from breaking titanic domestically.

ridiculous.

[Pyser]

edge of darkness vs avatar this week. should actually be a battle, in the 20m range

ill go with avatar possibly for the last time, at 26m.

[Buccaneer]

It looks like there is a huge grassroots/internet movement to get Avatar ahead of Titanic domestically. It will succeed whereas Dark Knight did not unfortunately.

[Pyser]

i dont think the internet has that kind of power (see: planes, snakes on a)

[Pyser]

dola, i do think it is a lock to break titanics domestic record though. but that has nothing to do with people on the internet hoping it happens.

it only has about 30m more to go, which could happen by monday.

[Pyser]

31m more for avatar this weekend.

[Pyser]

avatar vs from paris with love

blue aliens again is my pick. 24m.

[Pyser]

well i feel very out of the loop. dear john took it at 32m. avatar made 23.

[Chief Rum]

well i feel very out of the loop. dear john took it at 32m. avatar made 23.

You weren't the only one. I was surprised. Chicks rule the day this weekend.

[Pyser]

oof, missed vday weekend.

results:

1. Valentine's Day $63,135,312
2. Percy Jackson $38,661,634
3. The Wolfman $35,555,065
4. Avatar $23,600,000

[Pyser]

this week is shutter island vs vday. youd have to think vdays drop-off will be big, since its not that weekend anymore.

i think it will be a big drop, down to about 23m, which will probably just edge out avatar for 2nd. ill give shutter first, somewhere around 31m, only because my friends seem into it (though im not).

[Pyser]

wow, shutter island killed. 41m. vday took second by 400k, 16.6 to 16.2 over avatar.

[Pyser]

missed a week. sorry.

this week is alice in wonderland. thats all you really need to know. family friendly flick that people in their 20s will also be interested in. big numbers. ill go 75m.

[Buccaneer]

Huge numbers. Second largest non-summer opening of all time.

[Chief Rum]

Wow, big time numbers. Broke triples.

[Pyser]

$116m. i did not see that coming.

i mean....WHY?!!? i dont remember anyone caring about that story that much. but i guess i shouldve been higher, as i said, appeals to almost every demo

still shocked though

[Pyser]

oh, heres a small part of the reason:

Combined, the 3D and IMAX ticket premiums over normal prices appear to have added about $22 million to Alice's gross.

[Pyser]

green zone vs alice in wonderland

no contest. alice at 65m, i think.

[Pyser]

made 62.7

[Pyser]

alice vs bounty hunter and diary of a wimpy kid

think ill ride alice's coattails one more time, but it will be closer. 33m.

[Pyser]

missed a couple weeks

clash of titans (week 2) vs date night

ill go titans at 31m, after it made 61m last weekend

[Pyser]

tight weekend

1. Clash of the Titans $26,633,209
2. Date Night $25,207,599
3. How to Train Your Dragon $24,863,535

[Buccaneer]

Well? Summertime is upon us.

[Pyser]

stupid real life. i missed a few weeks, and an opening that may be tough to top this year. ill try harder.

[Karlifornia]

Thought this would be the place to mention the stunning bomb that was Jonah Hex.

[Chief Rum]

Man, I was just thinking about this thread the other day, and realized I hadn't seen it in a while. Too bad, it looks like real life has been hitting up Pyser a bit (and come to think of it, can't remember last time I saw him post). Hope he's still around and doing well.

FTR, I thought The Town would take this weekend, with all the buzz it was getting.

[Pyser]

hey guys, thanks for checking in! i have indeed been super busy, but lets try to get this going again



this week is wall street 2 vs the owls gahoole.

i stick by my never betting against kids (even though i saw a screening and it is a bad movie, with good visuals).

gahoole, 24m.

also, their ads are EVERYWHERE in la

[Pyser]

back with a bang! completely wrong.

wall street 2 won $19m to $16m. sorry, owls.

[Pyser]

social network all the way this weekend. wont crack 30, i dont think, but close. 29m guess

let me in is a remake that shouldnt have been made, but i bet its solid. just wont make enough to register here

[Pyser]

was too high. only made 22.4m. good reviews though, should have legs

[Pyser]

an utterly crap weekend. secretariat vs life as we know it vs my soul to take vs the holdover, social network

id like social network to hold, but the usual 40% drop brings it to about 14m. even with good word of mouth, could it top 16m?

bigger question, can secretariat or life as we know it top 16m either?

i very, very reluctantly say the horse movie, at 17m. but my heart hopes for fincher

[Pyser]

good for social network, it held on at 15.5m

secretariat only did 12m and change. life as we know it came closest, at 14.6m

[Pyser]

jackass 3 vs red this weekend

never underestimate stupidity. jackass 3, 23m.

[Pyser]

$50m??! seriously?! are tickets $50 a pop??

[Pyser]

missed a week. paranormal activity 2 cracked 40m. crazy.

this week it's saw 3d coming after pa2.

i guess saw will beat it, since horror movies dont usually hold up well. but who the hell wants to see saw anymore?

22m guess.

[Pyser]

saw 3d it made $22.5 mil. nice to be right again.

[Pyser]

megamind opens this week. thats about all you need to know. 73m.

[Pyser]

waaaay high. "only" made 46m

[Pyser]

unstoppable, morning glory and skyline vs megamind trying to hold

i think unstoppable would lead that pack of new movies at about 23m, but a 40% drop for megamind is still about $28m, so megamind is my pick

[Pyser]

spot on last week

harry potter this week (yay). obviously huge. 120m? surprised it didnt get a wed release, but i guess the thinking is theyll own thanksgiving week, too, since families will be together and bored.

also, the last few came out in summer, i believe...and the last one comes out in july. no real impact, just interesting to me. i believe it started as a winter series though, way back when.

[Pyser]

2 in a row. hp7.1 made $125m

[Pyser]

forgot to update.

a lot opened wednesday, which i missed, so ill do a 3 day prediction.

hp should hold, but tangled will take some kids away, being the main competition.

ill still go hp7.1 at 55m.

[Pyser]

potter took it at 49m, tangled made 48m

this weekend nothing really opens, so ill go tangled, since its been out a week less than potter. 40% drop gives it about $28m this weekend, which seems too high to me, so ill go 24m.

[Pyser]

even 24 was high. tangled won it at 21.6m

this week is narnia 3. so thats an easy prediction. money not so much. i dont know anyone who wants to see this, but then, im not 10. but still, this is one kids franchise i dont think is that big, though the movies certainly look super expensive.

25m?

[Pyser]

narnia won it at 24m

this weekend is how do you know, tron, yogi bear, and the fighter

if there was any justice in this world, the fighter would win it (its excellent). but there isnt justice, and i think its between tron and yogi bear. and since tron has all the 3d stuff, ill give it to tron, though i dont know anyone who wants to see it. 30m is what im guessing, though i wouldnt be shocked to see 50m for no reason whatsoever

[Pyser]

tron indeed. $44m.

this weekend is oscar contender vs utter crap. true grit vs little fockers

fockers all the way. 35m.

[Pyser]

fockers took it at 30.8m

nothing opens this weekend, which means it is fockers vs true grit again. true grit made 25m last weekend - very solid

the question now is how does new years affect the box office? i actually think its a good time to catch a movie, overall. all the award movies are out, people are off work, the weather has been bad just about nationwide...

i dont think fockers has the kind of audience that waits until week 2 to see it. however, families may not have many other options. true grit, on the other hand, has the exact kind of audience that would wait to see it. like i said, a good time to catch up on the movies you know will be nominated

ill go true grit at 22m, edging out, say, 20m for fockers?

[Pyser]

so close. little fockers won, 25m to 24m

this weekend, season of the witch and country strong open

i think im going true grit again, at 15m

[Pyser]

hey, look at that. true grit took it at 14.6m

this weekend, its the dilemma vs green hornet

ive been burned by rogan before (pineapple express), and burned by james (paul blart)

america loves shit comedies. dilemma at 30m

[Pyser]

totally wrong last week. green hornet won it 33.5m to 17.8m. ouch!

this week is no strings attached vs last weeks field. ill go with the new movie, 19m.

[Pyser]

and so it was. no strings attached made 19.6m

this week is the mechanic vs the rite

been a while since a horror movie was releases. so ill go with the rite, 20m.

[Pyser]

right movie, wrong total. only made 14.8m

this weekend sees the roommate and sanctum open.

sanctum has the bonus of 3d prices, so ill take that. 16m.

[Chief Rum]

right movie, wrong total. only made 14.8m

this weekend sees the roommate and sanctum open.

sanctum has the bonus of 3d prices, so ill take that. 16m.

It's really hard to predict the numbers at this time of year. And this week in particular seems to like much excitement whatsoever. You may be right about the 3D prices--I think the overall totals will be low enough to make that a factor.

[Pyser]

oof, my first miss in a while. big miss.

the roommate took it at 15m. sanctum only made 9.4m

this weekend is just go with it vs cedar rapids vs gnomeo and juliet vs justin bieber vs the eagle

never go against sandler in this country. just look at the zohan. 34m for the valentines weekend crowd

though, bieber will be very close, i think (and has 3d prices, though i wont fall for that again!)

[Pyser]

just go with it held off bieber by a mil, 30.5m to 29.5m

this week is big mommas house vs i am #4 vs unknown

taken did well last year, or 2 years ago, and unknown is playing heavily off that. but #4 seems like a mindless popcorn flick more for kids, and kids go to the movies more than adults (i assume)

#4, 28m.

[Pyser]

shouldve remembered the legs taken had.

unknown took it at 21.8. #4 made 19.4m

this week is drive angry vs hall pass

think im going with the comedy, 21m

[Pyser]

hall pass took it with a dismal 13.5m. for a while, it was reported gnomeo and juliet won it, despite being out 3 weeks and never being #1 before. wouldve been cool.

this week is the adjustment bureau vs rango

i stick with always going with kids. 27m.

[Pyser]

rango did well, 38m.

this weekend: battle la vs mars needs moms vs red riding hood vs rango

mars needs moms should cancel out rango. so ill take battle at 25m.

[larrymcg421]

I think the Dark Knight's opening weekend record of $158 million may fall this weekend. Deathly Hallows 2 just pulled in $43 million on midnight screenings alone, smashing the previous midnight record (Twilight: Eclipse) by $13 million.

[larrymcg421]

Yep, Dark Knight is toast. Deathly Hallows Part 2 pulled in $92 million on Friday alone, beating the old single day record by $20 million. It just needs $66.4 million on the next two days combined to top Dark Knight's opening weekend.

[Pyser]

$207m for avengers this weekend made me think about this thread. thats a lot of money, to put it mildly.

[larrymcg421]

I'm thinking it will destroy the 2nd weekend record and be the first film to get over $100million. If you compare it to other comic book movies that opened in early May, Spider-man and Spider-man 3.

Here are their Sunday - Thursday drops:

Spider-man 3: 85.2%
The Avengers: 78.2%
Spider-man: 76.4%

So I would expect it to perform closer to Spider-man's 37.8% drop than Spider-man 3's 61.5% drop. I'm thinking something like 45% for a $114m 2nd weekend is possible. Even if it performs dead int he middle of those two films, we're looking at a 49.7% drop for a $104.1. I would be very surprised if it doesn't reach $100 million.

[Pyser]

spot on. well done.

[larrymcg421]

spot on. well done.

Thanks!

It's really amazing how well this film is doing. It owns all the Fastest To records up to $350 million so far. It will cross $400 million on Thursday, 4 days faster than Dark Knight. It will cross $450 million on Sunday, 10 days faster than Dark Knight! Right now I'd say it will surely pass Dark Knight for 3rd all-time and has an outside shot to catch 2nd place Titanic.

I'm gonna stick with the idea that it performs in between SM3 and SM1. Their 3rd weekends were 50.1% and 36.9% drops respectively. That makes for a 43.5% drop and a $58.2 million 3rd weekend.

So the weekend I'd put like this:

Avengers $58.2m
Battleship $35m
The Dictator $20m
What to Expect $17m
Dark Shadows $15m

[Pyser]

Avengers $58.2m
Battleship $35m
The Dictator $20m
What to Expect $17m
Dark Shadows $15m

you're (mostly) hired.

avengers: 55.6
battleship: 25.5
dictator: 17.4
dark shadows: 12.5
what to expect: 10.5

avengers is just insane.

[larrymcg421]

you're (mostly) hired.

avengers: 55.6
battleship: 25.5
dictator: 17.4
dark shadows: 12.5
what to expect: 10.5

avengers is just insane.

Thanks. I was way off on Battleship and What to Expect, but solid on the others.

This weekend is MIB3. Will hasn't had a big movie in a while and he's always a reliable opener, even when the movies arent that good:

So I say for the 4 day weekend:

MIB3: $80m
Avengers: $47m

[larrymcg421]

Way too high on MIB 3 which was $69 million, but I hit Avengers exactly.