Input Requested for Pool Scoring

[MikeVic]

This is for the NBA playoffs, but not dependent on the NBA playoffs (so any 7-game series knowledge for any sport is all you need).

A friend is running an NBA Playoff Pool, with the following scoring:

-10 points for every correct GAME prediction
-bonus 2 points for correct SERIES prediction
-minus 3 points an incorrect game prediction

Is it just me, or does this seem flawed? Why wouldn't I pick a 4-3 outcome for every series, as long as I pick the team I think will win to have the 4 games. Isn't the expected value the greatest if I do it this way?

[tyketime]

I'm not sure I understand this system.

Suppose Team A plays Team B. If I correctly pick Team A to win series 4-3, I could still end up big time negative, right?

Here are my picks:
Game 1: Team A
Game 2: Team A
Game 3: Team B
Game 4: Team B
Game 5: Team A
Game 6: Team B
Game 7: Team A

Actual results are just the opposite (except for Game 7):
Game 1: Team B (minus 3 pts)
Game 2: Team B (minus 3 pts)
Game 3: Team A (minus 3 pts)
Game 4: Team A (minus 3 pts)
Game 5: Team B (minus 3 pts)
Game 6: Team A (minus 3 pts)
Game 7: Team A (10 pts for correct game prediction + 3 pts for series prediction)

I still ended up with score of -5 (negative 5).

Am I understanding scoring system correctly?

Furthermore, if I predict series goes 7 games, but Team A sweeps, do I get -3 pts for wrong game results for #5,6,7?

[MikeVic]

No, you don't predict each individual game. You only predict the total games for the series. So in your example, you'd get 72 points since you guessed 7 games correctly (4 to 3) and Team A won.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Good question. Let me pick three scenarios and see how they work out.

Scenario 1 - You pick Team A to win 4-3 - Team A wins 4-3:
+40 for picking Team A's 4 wins
+30 for picking Team B's 3 wins
+2 for picking the series
Total 72 points

Scenario 2 - You pick Team A to win 4-3 - Team A wins 4-1:
+40 for picking Team A's 4 wins
+10 for picking Team B's 1 win
-6 for missing Team B's 2 wins (I assume)
+2 for picking the series
Total 46 points

Scenario 3 - You pick Team A to win 4-1 - Team A wins 4-1:
+40 for picking Team A's 40 wins
+10 for picking Team B's 1 win
+2 for picking the series
Total 52 points

Yeah, I'd just pick 4-3 for everything. I mean, why pick 4-1 and miss out on the extra 20 points if it ends up as 4-3?

[tyketime]

No, you don't predict each individual game. You only predict the total games for the series. So in your example, you'd get 72 points since you guessed 7 games correctly (4 to 3) and Team A won.

Wait... you mean the Games prediction is how many games each team wins in the series? Then yeah, I would agree. Maximize your points by predicting 7 game series every time.

And to carry Pumpy's Scenarios further:

Scenario 4 - You pick Team A to win 4-3 - Team B wins 4-3:
+30 for picking Team A's 3 wins
+30 for picking Team B's 3 wins
Still a total of 60 points

Scenario 5 - You pick Team A to win 4-3 - Team B wins 4-1:
+10 for picking Team A's 1 win
+30 for picking Team B's 3 wins
-3 for missing total number of games
Total 37 points

Both scoring a lot of points and in both cases getting the series wrong.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I pick the Grizzlies to win every series 4-3.