136th Kentucky Derby

[CleBrownsfan]

Looks like the favorite to be Eskendereya is scratched. Should be an open field now.

I've liked Paddy O'Prado for a while and looks to be a contender in the Derby. I'll be putting some cash on Prado for sure...

Quiksand - who you liking??

[QuikSand]

Loved the (former) favorite, and had him at a decent price in the Fountain of Youth. Now, I'm pretty much at a loss.

I think the real talent/value combo is probably among those who lost last time out, but have a history of some ability. LOOKIN AT LUCKY is a pretty deserving favorite, I suppose, but I'll be looking to score at double digits, I'm sure.

[CleBrownsfan]

Should be a very good payout whoever wins - that's for sure...

[path12]

Looks pretty wide open with Eskendraya (sp?) out. I'm leaning toward Ice Box right now, Zito is always dangerous.

[Ksyrup]

One of these years I'm going to get involved with a firm client who we're taking to the KD and get myself invited to this thing. I've gotta go at least once, right?

[QuikSand]

Right.

[path12]

Agree with Quik. Only been once but am very glad I did.

[CleBrownsfan]

Going to the Derby is for sure one of those "must do before I die" for me. It's only about 4.5r hours from me so no reason why I won't get there at some point. I heard it's a huge party...

[Ksyrup]

I'm 45 minutes away, I just have no interest in sitting in the infield with a bunch of drunk kids. If I go, it will be in real seats or in the firm suite. I've been to Churchhill Downs a couple of times, but I actually prefer Keeneland. I'd just like to go to the Derby once. It'll happen eventually.

[QuikSand]

I have heard from a couple people I know locally that DUBLIN is getting buzz, especially since his good Sunday morning workout. Given my general lack of attention to the sport this year, I might be a sucker for the "now" horse, and he may be it. Not sure if I'll get the sort of odds I'm looking for, but he may be an intriguing one to look over more closely.

[CleBrownsfan]

Cool - Dublin will be on my ticket. I was liking him before you posted that little tidbit.

ESPN use to run the post selections but I don't see that they are this year. I use to DVR the hour long selection show 'cause they use to break down each horse... bummer they aren't showing it this year.

[CleBrownsfan]

Initial odds are in:


Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 Lookin At Lucky Garrett Gomez 3-1
2 Ice Box Jose Lezcano 10-1
3 Noble's Promise Willie Martinez 12-1
4 Super Saver Calvin Borel 15-1
5 Line of David Rafael Bejarano 30-1
6 Stately Victor Alan Garcia 30-1
7 American Lion David Flores 30-1
8 Dean's Kitten Robby Albarado 50-1
9 Make Music For Me Joel Rosario 50-1
10 Paddy O'Prado Kent Desormeaux 20-1
11 Devil May Care John Velazquez 10-1
12 Conveyance Martin Garcia 12-1
13 Jackson Bend Mike Smith 15-1
14 Mission Impazible Rajiv Maragh 20-1
15 Discreetly Mine Javier Castellano 30-1
16 Awesome Act Julien Leparoux 10-1
17 Dublin Terry Thompson 12-1
18 Backtalk Miguel Mena 50-1
19 Homeboykris Ramon Dominguez 50-1
20 Sidney's Candy Joe Talamo 5-1

[path12]

Some nice odds there. I'm out of town this weekend but may have to look for a place where I can make a couple plays.

[Senator]

Always look forward to this thread.

[path12]

Was looking the past performances over. Here are my notes (for what they're worth):

1 Lookin At Lucky -- 98 two back on dirt, trouble last time. wonder about distance, gained position but not lengths at 1 1/8. Blinkers off? Decent but beatable.
2 Ice Box -- deep closer on the rail in a 20 horse field? doubt it.
3 Noble's Promise -- steadied 3/4 in last but lost one position and 1 1/4 lengths thru stretch at 1 1/8. i remember that race, he wasn't a factor. before that nipped at 1 1/16. distance problem.
4 Super Saver -- tough down the stretch but couldn't get it done last out but 98 is good for this field so far. bounce? borel is a plus. improving beyers thruout. interesting.
5 Line of David -- first run on dirt he improves 10 points on his best previous beyer. how do you evaluate that? rabbited in last and just hung on at 1 1/8, though it was a decent pace with a 1:10.3 6 furlongs. i don't think he gets a clear lead here.
6 Stately Victor -- he sure looks better on turf/synthetics than he does dirt, and ran a 59 at cd lst fall. might be able to rate lower midpack. beyers look a bit low but improving. could move up if wet?
7 American Lion -- he's won G3's and lost G2's. why would he jump up and grab the derby? strong looking last out but still G3.
8 Dean's Kitten -- no dirt record. workouts at cd ok, one bullet at 5f but rest average. best beyer 93 last out on synthetic. does he jump 6-8 points on dirt? leaning no.
9 Make Music for Me -- one win and that in a 68k minor stakes. certainly has been beaten regularly by a few of these. no dirt record, one average work at cd. no.
10 Paddy O'Prado -- wow. this isn't a strong year. battled but faded to place in blue grass - 87? low. rest turf except first race in slop. bullet in slop at cd. not thrilled.
11 Devil May Care -- filly that took esks place iirc. first 100 so far, that's an impressive line. 'shied from whip str', what does that mean? blinkers on. might be a bit skittish for this atmosphere. got a chance i suppose.
12 Conveyance -- beat dublin who i'm hearing good things about. G3 only so far but decent beyers. not sure if can lay off pace, tougher job if has to go with line of david. 58.3 breeze at cd is pretty nice.
13 Jackson Bend -- last two outs eskendereya beat by 9 3/4 and 8 1/2 lengths. so question is, are there any horses who were within 8 lengths of eskendereya? i think there probably were. last three beyers 90, 92, 93 so improving but needs to jump 6-8 higher.
14 Mission Impazible -- improved beyers every out. only five starts. fair grounds has long stretch like cd, looks to be able to rate. should be moving in stretch. bad name. beaten by conveyance and dublin two back.
15 Discreetly Mine -- consistently near the front in every race at G2 and G1 company. doesn't win that often though. 'no final kick', lost 3/4 in stretch in last. belongs on class but don't see on top.
16 Awesome Act -- good in gotham, not so good in wood. looking at comments this horse gets in a lot of trouble and/or rank. i don't think 20 horses is going to be good for him.
17 Dublin -- do i just look at the pretty good beyers (96,97) or do i look at the fact that no fewer than eight horses in this race have beaten him in the past plus he shows no bold names behind his in any race?
18 Backtalk -- american lion beat him by 14 lengths last out. i'm leaning no.
19 Homeboykris -- last out was feb 27th where he was second in a 44k alw. high beyer 89. if he beats me he beats me.
20 Sidney's Candy -- no dirt form but a couple good cd works. nice horse, frontrunner. 95, 95, 100 last three in two G2 and sa derby. post doesn't hurt as much from way outside, he can get position before turn, esp considering not tons of pace. beat lucky by 6 last out. contender.

So looking this over (this will change I'm sure) I like Sidney's Candy and Super Saver best, and would put Lookin At Lucky, Mission Impazible, Devil May Care and Discreetly Mine as the main contenders with Line of David as an interesting longshot.

[CleBrownsfan]

Love the breakdown path...

You're making me think twice on putting money with O' Prado and Dublin. I usually have about 20 different bets on the Derby any how ;)

For ones who are interested here is a link (http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/pps/derby2010classic.pdf) of the past performances for the Derby.

[QuikSand]

I am warming up to AWESOME ACT a bit as I start to look a little more closely. Ran a pretty respectable race in the Juv Turf last year against a solid field. He's got a late running style for sure, and has handled pretty big fields before (I'm going to try to read up on whether his rankness issues are behind him...that is admittedly a bit troubling). He had a very strong work 4/27 at Churchill, suggesting that he'll at least be okay with the going there. I know he broke badly in the Wood, and got outrun by Eskendereya -- but I don't think anyone in this field could hang with Big E if he's on his game, so he doesn't have to beat that horse this time.

Using my "predict the people" method, I also expect that the 10-1 ML is likely low -- I don't think he will be lower than 15 by post time. That 93 speed figure in a losing effort last time out is not a beacon for heavy betting.

Not sure if he is eventually going to be my official pick, but I think at 15 0r 20, this guy looks like a serious value play.

[path12]

For those of you who have seen Eskendereya run this year (I haven't), how much better than these was he?

I'm thinking that I will likely have to throw Dublin in the third spot in trifectas and maybe Conveyance as well. I think either Line of David or Conveyance will be the pace challenge to Sidney's Candy, but one or both will have to fade IMO.

[QuikSand]

FWIW, you can pull up the video of pretty much any prep race on YouTube, if you'd like to see any of these guys in action. The convention seems to be to include the name of the winning horse in the video title as well as the race name... so search for "2010 Fountain Youth" will get you a nice look at Eskendereya dusting that decent field.

[Coffee Warlord]

Disclaimer: I know relatively little / bordering on jack shit about racing.

But, I just do not know if Sidney's Candy is going to be up there from the 20 post.

[path12]

FWIW, you can pull up the video of pretty much any prep race on YouTube, if you'd like to see any of these guys in action. The convention seems to be to include the name of the winning horse in the video title as well as the race name... so search for "2010 Fountain Youth" will get you a nice look at Eskendereya dusting that decent field.


Yeah, but I can't stream from work and am gonna be pretty busy tonight so was just curious. No biggie.

Looks like wet may be in the forecast. That might switch things up a bit.

[QuikSand]

I'm hearing the word "biblical" thrown around in describing the rains that are supposed to start falling late tonight. Just sayin...

[CleBrownsfan]

Do/will they postpone races if it's to much rain?

[QuikSand]

No chance.

[QuikSand]

For those of you who have seen Eskendereya run this year (I haven't), how much better than these was he?

In my view, he was much the best.

[QuikSand]

By the way, if you have the same variation of pre-race priapism that I tend to get this time of year, you may want to read up on this:

Super Hi-5 | Churchill Downs (http://www.churchilldowns.com/superhi-5)

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Super Hi-5

A new way to win big, and fast. Pick the top 5 finishers in order in today's designated Super Hi-5 race and you'll take down the big money. The Hi-5 is a $1 "carryover" bet where the pool gets bigger every day until someone gets it right. (Look over our "Betting Ideas" section for some Hi-5 betting strategies designed for budgets of every size.) Five numbers could change your life, so get to work - or just get plain lucky - on the new Churchill Downs Super Hi-5.

The Super Hi-5 will replace Superfecta wagering on the races on which the Super Hi-5 is offered. Superfectas will be offered on all other races.

if the DRF page is accurate, they will feature both Superfecta and Hi-5 wagering on the Derby itself. But if there's a carryover (who knows) there could be money on the table for this bet.

[Coffee Warlord]

For what it's worth, if the track turns to slop, I'm digging Super Saver and Line of David as decent picks. Both look like they can break fast.

[QuikSand]

PP information here (http://www.sevenshuffles.com/QuikSand/cdppdata01may10.pdf)

[QuikSand]

For what it's worth, if the track turns to slop, I'm digging Super Saver and Line of David as decent picks. Both look like they can break fast.

As a general rule, I think looking for early speed on a sloppy track makes sense.

Here, not so sure. I think there's something to the notion that we probably have 5-8 horses in this field who really don't want to find out if their untested horse can handle getting mud all over his face... and so they might have extra incentive to try to push toward the lead early. If that happens, we might see what already looks to me (just IMHO) like a bunch of cheap speed looking even cheaper than usual.

I'll also point out in particular that I'm troubled by LINE OF DAVID's one muddy workout, which was unimpressive. Prior to that on April 26, he had never been run for a documented work on an off track -- suggesting that his handlers don't think that's the sort of going that he will favor. I think that sets him up as even more likely to be a one-run speedball in this race, and in my view, even more likely now that he is completely cooked by the second turn. No, throwing out a 30-1 longshot isn't really exciting handicapping... but that's my unsolicited thinking.

And, I will volunteer that I have followed racing so little this year than none of my views are very well founded. If my recent patterns with fantasy sports follow suit, this means I am a lock for at least a trifecta ticket.

[Ksyrup]

We're looking at major rain for this weekend, although (a) the first or second rounds of rain are supposed to be over by Saturday afternoon, so it might not be raining at race time, and (b) the worst of it appears to be coming for Sunday. Looks like another weekend indoors - last weekend was the same way. Today, while I sit in my office looking out the window, it's 80 degrees and sunny....

[CleBrownsfan]

For what it's worth, if the track turns to slop, I'm digging Super Saver and Line of David as decent picks. Both look like they can break fast.

Any reason?

For the life of me I can't get off of Paddy O' Prado. I don't think Paddy is the best horse in the field but how many times do you see the best horse(s) actually win the Derby. I've watched the Blue Grass a few time now and liked what I saw out Paddy...

Some thoughts/notes I've made on some horses...

How much being on the rail is going to effect Looking at Lucky?
Ice Box looks to be a finisher to fear. Putting in a tri-box - 3rd place finish
Thinks Conveyance will be the pace maker
Jackson Bend if odds are 15-1+ put money on place/show
Coffee Warlord likes Super Saver and Line of David - stay away ;)
Sidney's Candy needs to break flawlessly to have a shot.

[Coffee Warlord]

Coffee Warlord likes Super Saver and Line of David - stay away ;)

I'm not disputing this. :)

[QuikSand]

Thinks Conveyance will be the pace maker

I don't think I agree. His early pace tendency doesn't seem so pronounced that he just guns for the lead, period... and his actual early speed doesn't seem to be meaningfully better than several others here. It's possible he gets the lead by the turn... but I don't think it's at all easy to say that he will do so with any confidence.

[weegeebored]

As usual, the Derby is wide open again this year. Add the rain factor into the mix and we could have another Mine-That-Bird-type winner. I am looking at this year's race as an opportunity to cash big. Well, that's the theory anyway. I usually play exacta and trifecta part-wheels and this year will be no different. So fwiw, here's my plays as of now:

Tri -- 2,16,17 / 1,2,4,14,16,17 / 1,2,4,14,16,17 60 tickets

Ex -- 2,16,17 / 1,2,4,14,16,17 15 tickets

Best of luck everyone.

[Honolulu Blue]

ESKENDEREYA was pretty much the only horse I liked in the Derby field. Not a lot, IMO, distinguishes this group. You're likely to get nice odds if you can find one that you actually like. This looks like a good year for a 20-1+ shot to come in. Unless the folks in the stands go crazy, I'm passing on this one.

[QuikSand]

With more than $3m in the win pool, #1 LOOKIN AT LUCKY remains the favorite, but at 8-1 only barely over 2, 4 and 20. If the fave goes off at 7 or 8 that will have to be a record.

[QuikSand]

My current draft for a HI5 ticket:

2 16
2 16
1 13 17
1 13 17
1 4 10 13 17 18

I have a small syndicate putting in about $200, so I am still building and refining tickets for the Pick 4, Super, and Hi-5.

[QuikSand]

Heh, now have an investor singing #14 MISSION IMPAZIBLE... Will need to work him in too.

[QuikSand]

Weegee, you and I are frighteningly close on this. Good luck to you!

[weegeebored]

I am surprised that we are, QS, as this thing is a real crapshoot this year. And I don't know if having close to the same picks as me is a good thing. :D

Just to clarify, I based my picks mostly on pedigree for distance and mud. I usually do pace analysis but there's no way to predict that with 20 3yos going 10f for the first time. And in the slop to boot! Plus, trips are a matter of luck with all of the pinballing going around at the start. I just hope that leaving out the 20 doesn't come back to bite me in the ass.

Best of luck to you as well.

[Coffee Warlord]

Grr. My OTB isn't allowing 10 cent Superfectas. Jerks.

[larrymcg421]

Borel wins again. Amazing!

[Karlifornia]

The owner(?) of Super Saver has a legendary hairpiece.

EDIT: Nevermind..I have no idea who that is..

[k0ruptr]

Borel wins again. Amazing!

he's like the clutchy McClutch clutch of Horse Racing. always comes up big when it matters the most!

[Coffee Warlord]

Dude who won some contest to bet 100,000 on a single horse won, too. Wow.

[Karlifornia]

Dude who won some contest to bet 100,000 on a single horse won, too. Wow.

Turns out the guy with the awful wig is Glen Fullerton, the guy who just won $1.5 million. Now he can afford Bosley Treatment or whatever.

[CleBrownsfan]

Got the Trifecta!!

I'm looking for the payouts but can't find it yet... I'm so pumped!

[CleBrownsfan]

Holy shit - 2 grand!

$2,337 to be exact.... mother of god how awesome is that??!! Beers on me FOFC!

[Eaglesfan27]

Holy shit - 2 grand!

$2,337 to be exact.... mother of god how awesome is that??!! Beers on me FOFC!

Congrats!

[k0ruptr]

Holy shit - 2 grand!

$2,337 to be exact.... mother of god how awesome is that??!! Beers on me FOFC!

you SOB, I fully expect you to turn that into Hawaii Vacation money and buy me that beer.

lol Congrats that truly is suuweeeet. good job!

[digamma]

Holy shit - 2 grand!

$2,337 to be exact.... mother of god how awesome is that??!! Beers on me FOFC!

Where should I send the bill?

CleBrownsfan
Cleveland, OH?

That do it?

"I'm goin' win the Triple Crown this year, sweetie."

[QuikSand]

Congrats to the winners and the winning bettor!

Quick comments:

-obviously a great race by the winner, had the right setup and the talent to take full advantage...watching Borel won from the rail on an undercard race there today sure had me thinking he had a real shot to get exactly the effort he did...wish I had him on top of my bets of course, rather than just in my second tier

-the late run by ICE BOX was tremendous, really eye-popping to see him have to wait to get out to swing there and then to get that close

-nobody's going to talk about a sixth place effort, but they ought to - LOOKIN AT LUCKY got shoved back once then again to wind up in 18th position (not at all his plan) and then worked like hell (not his style) to get back into the thick of things for 6th place...that was one whale of an effort that will go mostly unnoticed

[weegeebored]

Good observations QS. Watch the video again and you will see an absolutely horrid trip for Ice Box as well. I really liked the eventual winner but I demoted him to the place and show slots as I expected more of a pace duel and fade from him.

The problem I have with LaL is that he is always getting into trouble. I bet that he is the fave in the Preakness and I personally think that will be a bad wager.

[QuikSand]

I bet that he is the fave in the Preakness and I personally think that will be a bad wager.

Hmmm... if SS and LAL both enter the Preakness, and IB sits it out for a five week layoff ( a scenario I deem pretty likely), and the rest of the field is fairly uninspiring, I'd expect a line like:

SUPER SAVER 2-1
LOOKIN AT LUCKY 4-1
other Derby challengers like PADDY in the 6-10 range

I think Borel and the Derby champ will be made the favorites in Charm City, and perhaps Lucky will become the "wise guy" pick based on the troubles.

[Coffee Warlord]

Coffee Warlord likes Super Saver and Line of David - stay away ;)

I just wanna re-quote this and say...

DO NOT DOUBT THE JAVA KING.

[CleBrownsfan]

Lol - I was thinking about this when I was putting the bet in Saturday ;)

I wasn't able to go back to Thistledown today but tomorrow I'm going there to cash in... 1st time ever having to go up to the IRS window ;)

[Coffee Warlord]

I expect a cut of your winnings. :)

[path12]

Holy shit - 2 grand!

$2,337 to be exact.... mother of god how awesome is that??!! Beers on me FOFC!

Nice!

Was out of town and with the rain decided to cut the exotics, dropped Sidney's Candy and bumped up Noble's Prospect so called the following bet into my dad to make:

$10 win, $5 place Super Saver
$5 win, $5 place Noble's Prospect

And a $4 exacta box with those two, so total $33 bet. I know he paid $18.00 to win but haven't talked to my dad yet to see what the place and total amount back was.

Looking at the replay when I got home last night I thought it was pretty much a dream trip for Borel. Was very impressed with Lookin at Lucky considering the trouble he had.