So, do I want to auto-promote?

[QuikSand]

My Chesapeake Cheapshots (Team ID# 71318) are doing pretty nicely in my first full season at the helm. We are sitting atop league V.142, and if things play out according to current form, we will come into the final game of the season with a flawless record, against the league's second-place team that has lost only to us.

My stadium usually sells out its paltry 16,400 seats, and my total team value is currently just over $2 million. We typically put up something like 23-25 stars, or a HatStats rating of around 50. Financially, we are basically treading water this year - just barely in the black, and holding even (with a paltry support staff, I might add).


So... if things keep going well, I might face a tough decision late in this season. Does it serve this team best to move up to Division IV, and try to take on tougher competition there? Or would we be better served to "throw" the last match (if my scenario comes to pass, then they would pass me with the win - they score many more goals than we do - my club is among the two or three lowest-scoring 8-0 clubs in all of America).

"Throwing" the match isn't really something that I'd want to do, but if auto-promotion means I get the shit kicked out of me all next season and end up losing fan support along the way... maybe I'd be better served staying for another dominant season in Div V?


Sorry if this topic has basically been covered here. Some of this is specific to my club, but the question is one that many of use wil face, I suspect, over time.

[Doug5984]

Originally posted by QuikSand
My Chesapeake Cheapshots (Team ID# 71318) are doing pretty nicely in my first full season at the helm. We are sitting atop league V.142, and if things play out according to current form, we will come into the final game of the season with a flawless record, against the league's second-place team that has lost only to us.

My stadium usually sells out its paltry 16,400 seats, and my total team value is currently just over $2 million. We typically put up something like 23-25 stars, or a HatStats rating of around 50. Financially, we are basically treading water this year - just barely in the black, and holding even (with a paltry support staff, I might add).


So... if things keep going well, I might face a tough decision late in this season. Does it serve this team best to move up to Division IV, and try to take on tougher competition there? Or would we be better served to "throw" the last match (if my scenario comes to pass, then they would pass me with the win - they score many more goals than we do - my club is among the two or three lowest-scoring 8-0 clubs in all of America).

"Throwing" the match isn't really something that I'd want to do, but if auto-promotion means I get the shit kicked out of me all next season and end up losing fan support along the way... maybe I'd be better served staying for another dominant season in Div V?


Sorry if this topic has basically been covered here. Some of this is specific to my club, but the question is one that many of use wil face, I suspect, over time.

I am basically in the same boat; put up around 24-26 stars and around a 50 rating. I was wondering the same thing, do i just take the autopromote if i get it and hope to land in an easier D IV series or do I throw a match or 2 to keep my self from promoting so that I have another season to build in Div V. I have given this plenty of thought and I have decided that I will play my team normal and if they play good enough to get the autopromotion then I will take it. I would hate to sit in Div V and then have a new team come in and win the series and that would keep me in V for another whole season. I guess what I am saying is that if my team is good enough to autopromote then it had better be good enough to atleast be competitive in Div IV. I figure by the end of the season I should be able to put up a consistant 55 rating and that should be good enough to compete.

[robbgmaier]

Setting all the other BS aside, trying to survive in D IV will be a hell of a lot more interesting than white washing a hapless D V series one more season.

Others have made the following argument also. You never know when your next chance to promote will be. Whether automatically or by qualification, the team you are currently competing with could always be replaced by someone even better. Or, this other team might not promote, but instead make 2 half million dollar youth pulls, and become unbeatable next season.

Shrug, 2 cents, I'm looking forward to sweating the relegation line next season in D IV.

[dacman]

Things to consider:

1) One loss may not prevent you from autopromoting (it wouldn't have last year barring only a small goal diff).

2) You may promote to any easy D IV series, you never know.

3) You gain 10% supporters for promoting -- the chances of losing all of the extra over the course of even a bad season is not that great -- big losing streak? Fire the coach! Team/supporter moods reset.

4) You may have to face a solid demoted squad next year if you do not promote (and someone else does) and not be in this position again for at least 2 seasons.

4a) On the flip side of that coin -- the D4 demotee may be a bot squad.

5) You will likely have 2 new D6 promotees in your D5 series next year -- the series competition may be tougher.

edit: my thoughts --

My team is currently #25 on the promotion list (according to hatstats) and they just put up a 58 NSI while PIC'ing, so I feel I'd be a fool not to try to promote as that is likely good enough to at least survive in D4. Your situation does sound a bit more tenuous QS, but I still have to believe it's best to shoot for promotion because you just never know what may happen in the future and whether you'll be in this position again anytime soon.

[DataKing]

Some good points have been brought up here, especially regarding the ever-increasing level of competition, and the fact that autopromotion (or even a qualification match) may not be a given next season.

There is one other thing to bear in mind as well when considering whether or not to auto-promote. There is a significant financial advantage to auto-promotion. If memory serves me correctly, a team that automatically promotes from Div. V to Div. IV receives $290,000 in prize money. This money can be used to significantly increase the size of your stadium (that's what I did with mine when I promoted) or buy some decent talent to improve your team and help you to compete at the next level. Nearly $300k is nothing to sneeze at.

Just something else to bear in mind.

[Masked]

Another in almost the same position...one loss, but I will win out with a huge goal differential.

Last week 36 of the 64 div IV series had an average hatstats rating of less than 50. Granted this is skewed by walkovers, but suggests that a team in the 50's should survive in many div 4 series.

[illinifan999]

If I can win out I will probably have to play a qualification match. Before I decide what I want to do, I'm going to look at the division that I'm playing to get into. If it seems like I might be able to survive, then I MOTS it, if it seems like i won't then i will probably just spend anotehr year. And then if it takes me 17 seasons to make it into D4, then oh well.

[cthomer5000]

A lot of us are in the same situation. I'm moving closer and closer to the auto-promotion line (i've moved from #200-something to 158 in the last 4 weeks, and I suspect I will be above #128 if I finish the season 15-0-1 (as I suspect I will). Now to me, I'd always rather take my chances after I've been promoted, rather than turn down a sure promotion for the unknown that my division will be next year. I can understand the logic behing staying in D5. But:

1. I may not have a clear path to promotion next year
2. It will be very boring sticking around the same division
3. I could use the series champion cash.

[NAIWF]

Not that I can promote this year, but if I was in position to do so I definitely would. In just a few short weeks I've managed to get one of the better teams in the FOFC ranks, so I'd be fairly confident I would continue to improve to the point where I'd stay out of relegation by the end of NEXT season. I would think 20 more weeks of games would surely produce some good results in training and God forbid, a decent youth pull or two.

[PilotMan]

We are definatly going for the promotion this year. I feel like we are putting up enough numbers to make it interesting, and if I win out we should auto promote with no problem.

1. The money
2. The Challenge
----sometimes I look forward to that tough match, in D.IV, every match will be tough. At the same time, imagine how many FOFC teams will be in D.IV next year. I can only imagine how many may even be in the same conferece.

[sterlingice]

I'm damn well trying to promote but with one loss and a wicked game on the horizon, I'm due for a damn qualification game at best and lose out on the sweet, sweet $100K from autopromotion for a mere $30K from qualifier winning.

Here's the cash breakdown, for anyone curious:
Level 5
1st 75000 €
2nd 45000 €
3rd 37500 €
4th 19000 €

Autopromotion: 100000 €
Win Qualifier: 30000 €

btw, 1€ = 1US$

SI

[dacman]

Originally posted by sterlingice
... sweet, sweet $100K from autopromotion for a mere $30K from qualifier winning.
SI

I made $74k in gates (1/2 of the total -- game was at D4 squad's home) from my qualifier at the end of last season.

[daedalus]

I face a similar dilemma. I'm not certain my team is anywhere near ready for the next step. In fact, I'm pretty sure it isn't.

For your situations, however, I'd definitely give going with the promotion a strong consideration. I've only looked at the Cheapshots' ratings every now and again but I've seen midfield in the inadequate range. That pretty tough and should go a long way toward nullifying any disadvantages you might run into. As DK said, the bonus will also help give your team a boost. Also, not all D4 are quite as crazy as the IV.49 (Seamen) or IV.19 (Gargoyles). There are quite a few that a lot of FOFC D5 teams would be competitive in. And, really, you don't need to win it outright. Just stay in the top 6. Oh, and don't get shutout.

[FrogMan]

daedalus, maybe it's not well known to everybody, but your promotion would be from D.IV to D.III. That, I would think is a heck of a jump. I'm not sure there are many easy D.III leagues, but there sure are a few relatively easy D.IV leagues.

For me, probably some of you know how I think since I've stated it a few times in the past. I'm all for promotion when as soon as you can grab it. My reason is simple: you never know how the future will turn out and when you'll get your chance again. Period. Many have said it in better words, but it's about why.

The money and supporter boost are nice bonuses, but for me, it really comes down to grabbing your chance when it comes.

Also, after playing a season in an all-bot league, I'll welcome the challenge, as stated PilotMan, of a new league. I tell you, I really look forward to having to scout a new opponent every week. Right now, I PIC my B team and it goes through without a problem... Kinda boring if you ask me.

FM

[NAIWF]

In daedalus' situation I might opt not to jump to D3. I don't know if he PIC's every game or not, but a low-mid 50 NSI will get you killed in D3. I just checked where he would move to if he won qualification and that series averages 58 with a walkover game. I think that would basically be the equivalent of someone with low 30 NSI's trying to compete in D4. I would think the negative effects of lots of losing and an almost sure 10% supporter hit for relegation would be a deterrant, but having said that, I'd always try to move up to D4 regardless of the situation :D

[daedalus]

Originally posted by NAIWF
I don't know if he PIC's every game or not, but a low-mid 50 NSI will get you killed in D3.

*blush* I . . . haven't. We just are that not-so-good. Hee hee. :)

[QuikSand]

Thanks for the discussion, gang - just what I needed.

[bbor]

I hope to get demored this season from D4...i'm getting the shit kicked out of me in my D4 league...i hope to go down for a season then resurface in an easier D4 division.

Also.....i have been getting very low amount of supporters..lik 3 or 4 a week...and that is only if i manage to score a goal in my games...if i don't score..chances are i will lose 3 or 4 supporters.

[daedalus]

All the joys and all the funs of the 4-5-1. :)