Werewolf XVIII: To Crown a King (GAME OVER)

[Poli]

[finds wall]
[/finds wall]
[bangs head on wall]
uggggggggggghhhhhh
[/bangs head on wall]

[Poli]

By the way, I've been considerably lucky to be online today at work. 3 computers among 8 of us, and I've pretty much bogarted this one all day.

[Blade6119]

[finds wall]
[/finds wall]
[bangs head on wall]
uggggggggggghhhhhh
[/bangs head on wall]

[Bangs head on coffin]
[realiszes hes dead and cant bang head on coffin]
[/bangs head on coffin]

[saldana]

ardent, here is yet another thing i dont get right now. assuming you are telling the truth, we have mathmatical evidence against mcsweeny right now, and no evidence against taz except for you...unless there were only 2 assassins to start the game, we arent winning tonight either way tonight. so unless you are desperate to save mcsweeney, what difference does it make who we lynch tonight (unless we are wrong about mcsweeney, in which case it makes a huge difference to him)

[Schmidty]

I suck at math. Luckily you guys don't:

VOTE MCSWEENY EXCECUTE

[McSweeny]

Ok, I've been convinced that it's McSweeney. Here's the day one points --

We now know that Mr. Wednesday was an assassin, so Blade and Vince get a half point each -- +1 total.

I've deduced that absolutely 0 of the people that voted for Blade were in my faction -- which also happens to be Blade's faction, I believe. Because of this, the only negative modifiers to the score would be the first (Passacaglia, -2) and lynching (Desnudo, -3.5) votes for him. That gives us -5.5.

If McSweeney is an assassin, Dubb gets no points for his vote (because it was to jail, and McSweeney was never put in jail), but everyone else would get half a point, assuming that they are not themselves Assassins. With 4 other votes on him, that's +2 for the good guys.

+1
-5.5
+2
=
-2.5 -- which is what our overall point total was from day one. If we just assume that GWB is not a faction leader, so st. cronin got no points for that vote, and that Ardent Enthusiast is not an assassin, so hoopsguy got no points for that vote, we are absolutely square with our point total.

I'm very confident that McSweeney is an assassin.there's a whole lot of asuming going on here. you could "assume" anyone is anything to get this numbers to work out the way you want them to. Now we've got a half dozen people who just read the last line and jump on the bandwagon. You'd think there'd be at least a couple others who'd crunch the numbers as well. But you all seem so happy to jump on me after Vince throws a bunch of numbers and assumptions around.

Hey Ardent, i'm listening!

VOTE TAZFTW EXECUTE

[McSweeny]

I suck at math. Luckily you guys don't:

VOTE MCSWEENY EXCECUTEsee? exatly what i'm talking about. let's all just take Vince's word for it. Everyone knows that math done once is math done correctly right?

[saldana]

see? exatly what i'm talking about. let's all just take Vince's word for it. Everyone knows that math done once is math done correctly right?
no...in fact, the math has been corrected several times, but one thing has permeated this game since day one, we think youre an assassin. is that the best thing you can say in your defense...that the math might be faulty? it will take more than that to get me to change my vote

[McSweeny]

dola, Ardent, i am not ignoring you either, but i am just not sure i believe you at this point. i have had taz firmly in the noble column from the first day, so your "revalation" is a bit of a monkey wrench.what in the world would Ardent gain from making this up? let's not think about that though, it might screw up your math.

[TazFTW]

Looking over Vince's math.

Vote McSweeny Execute

[Vince]

McSweeney -- for the record, I was pretty sure you were a villager until I tried to figure out Day 1's numbers. If you can find an error, that would go a long way to proving your innocence, and I'd be happy to go with TazFTW...otherwise I'm going to stay where I'm at.

Ardent, etc -- I think it'd be a good idea to stick with TazFTW as your vote -- when the points come out, we can have a better idea of whether or not you are correct, and we can nail him tomorrow. I know it has to be frustrating to have a known assassin (to you) walk free...but we'll get to him.

[Poli]

ardent, here is yet another thing i dont get right now. assuming you are telling the truth, we have mathmatical evidence against mcsweeny right now, and no evidence against taz except for you...unless there were only 2 assassins to start the game, we arent winning tonight either way tonight. so unless you are desperate to save mcsweeney, what difference does it make who we lynch tonight (unless we are wrong about mcsweeney, in which case it makes a huge difference to him)
I haven't looked at the evidence against mcsweeny, that's all. Like I said, I'm not defending him. I just have lockdown proof that Taz is an assassin.

[Vince]

I haven't looked at the evidence against mcsweeny, that's all. Like I said, I'm not defending him. I just have lockdown proof that Taz is an assassin.
Evidence against McSweeney, in a nutshell:

I have proof that either Schmidty or McSweeney is an assassin. If we make the assumption that McSweeney is an assassin, the point totals for day one work out flawlessly.

[Vince]

Dola -- the proof that McSweeney or Schmidty is an assassin is mathematical, in the form of calculating the points awarded on Day 2. I'll dig up the post it was in...

Ok, this might be long -- it's kind of a stream of consciousness post as I deduce these things.

Day 2 is the vote we know the most about, so let's focus there. We are 100% certain that Mr. Wednesday was an Assassin. So we can find out exactly how many points those who voted for him got. I already posted that, but let's put it in writing again, just for fun:

Coffee Warlord -- +3 (First Vote on an Assassin)
st. cronin -- +5 (Lynching Vote on an Assassin)
George W. Bush -- +1
Ardent Enthusiast -- +1
McSweeney -- +1
TazFTW -- +1
Saldana -- +1
Kingfc22 -- +1
Desnudo -- +1
Total: +15

Now, we know that as a group, we totalled +12.5 points for this day's voting...so we have to have lost points somewhere. Initially, I determined that there must have been a penalty for voting for any noble, but Barkeep disabused me of that notion. The new rules show that there is no way to lose points for any vote that didn't result in the player being lynched/jailed (ie, a vote to execute a noble doesn't involve a penalty unless that noble actually gets lynched). Therefore, we cannot lose ANY points for the other five votes from day 2. We need to lose points somewhere, to go from our 15 point gain for killing Mr. Wednesday, to our 12.5 point ACTUAL gain. Therefore, we assume that the assassins who voted for Mr. Wednesday were not awarded points. We know that Coffee Warlord was not an assassin, so his +3 is legit. St. Cronin's +5 isn't a guarantee, but Faction B did gain a whole hell of a lot of points, and I'm pretty sure he's on the up and up. Because of that, I don't think it's a great leap in logic to assume that at least three of the +1 point getting guys in the list up there are assassins, to bring us down to +12 from +15. Note, however, that we still need to get a + .5 somewhere...

RPI-Fan -- Execute -- McSweeney
Passacaglia -- Execute -- RPI-Fan
Raiders Army -- Execute -- Coffee Warlord
Schmidty -- Execute -- RPI-Fan
Vince -- Execute -- Schmidty

This is where the 5 'odd' votes come into play. Here are the possible outcomes for these five votes: Quote:
<table border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> Originally Posted by Rules
+.5 points for any person voting to Jail the opposing Noble leader, whether or not they recieve the most votes
+.5 points for any person voting to execute an assassin who does not receive the most votes
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

Since no one voted to jail anyone in this group of five, any point gain resulting from these votes has to implicate an assassin.

Therefore, one (and only one) of the votes in the group of five non-Mr. Wednesday votes was for an assassin. Since this is highly incriminating, let's take a further look.

We know that Coffee Warlord was the Warrior Noble -- therefore Raiders Army could not have earned a half point for his vote. We're down to three suspects -- RPI-Fan, Schmidty and McSweeney.

RPI-Fan received two votes -- if he was an assassin, we are now at +1 point -- we still need our .5 somewhere (and there would have been 4 assassins in the initial group, which is a lot, especially since RPI-Fan would then be the 5th assassin -- and we still need our .5, so 6 assassins total -- quite preposterous). Therefore (I'm getting tired of that word already images/smilies/smile.gif), one and only one of McSweeney and Schmidty is an assassin.

So I'm going to stop here for a breather, then dive back in with a new post. Here's the main conclusion for now, and my first order of business:

We know either Schmidty or McSweeney is an assassin...which one is it?

[Poli]

I have proof that either Schmidty or McSweeney is an assassin. If we make the assumption that McSweeney is an assassin, the point totals for day one work out flawlessly.Thanks. Much appreciated. We still have to get Taz, though.

[TazFTW]

Ardent, etc -- I think it'd be a good idea to stick with TazFTW as your vote -- when the points come out, we can have a better idea of whether or not you are correct, and we can nail him tomorrow. I know it has to be frustrating to have a known assassin (to you) walk free...but we'll get to him.
You're assuming that there will be a tomorrow.

[Poli]

There probably will be for me. What harm can you do to me? I mean, I'm utterly useless now. I've fingered you, but I can't find any other assassins. Killing me is useless for you.

[TazFTW]

Who says I'm talking about people dieing?

I'm talking about Faction B being able to crown their leader king tonight.

[Poli]

As long as it keeps the assassins from winning, I'm all for it.

[Barkeep49]

when blade got lynched, you told us he was a noble, when wednesday got hung you told us he was an assassin, but you never told us if either had a secret role but when coffee got whacked you told us that he was the warrior noble., and when hoops and dubb got theirs, you didnt tell us anything at all.

They were both Nobles with no special ability. I failed to make this more explicit.

[Poli]

I will be interested in knowing the faction fallout when this is all over.

[Raiders Army]

This is interesting. I've been away all day, and ardent seems to be talking to himself. That being said, I'll make sure McSweeney dies tonight.

UNVOTE KINGFC22 EXECUTE
VOTE MCSWEENEY EXECUTE

Sucks being away all day.

[Vince]

You're assuming that there will be a tomorrow.
Well...I don't think there's much to be done at this point about Faction B and their point total. If the Nobles would rather squabble and risk their lives to make sure their faction leader is crowned king, then so be it. Could we even stop Faction B if their members voted in unison?

[Desnudo]

Well...I don't think there's much to be done at this point about Faction B and their point total. If the Nobles would rather squabble and risk their lives to make sure their faction leader is crowned king, then so be it. Could we even stop Faction B if their members voted in unison?

I don't think so. I considered saying something as I know who both noble faction leaders are. :eek: But I don't see any benefit at all at this point as B has such a huge lead. I can't see how they lose. Unless A and the thiefs all voted the same? Even then, I'm not sure the numbers come out right, and A runs the risk of getting one of their guys killed that night.

Looks like my muff of the Blade vote really killed any chance of a fair match :(

[McSweeny]

Well...I don't think there's much to be done at this point about Faction B and their point total. If the Nobles would rather squabble and risk their lives to make sure their faction leader is crowned king, then so be it. Could we even stop Faction B if their members voted in unison?well you could throw them in jail right? isn't that what the whole point of jail is?

[Coffee Warlord]

...

[Vince]

I could...but I still want MY faction to gain points, and I know an assassin. I don't think the risk is worth the reward. Plus, I put even odds on me being the assassins target this evening. I'd like to at least go out with a bang.

Faction B needs 4 points. If they hit on the first vote and the lynching vote, it's game over. If they hit on the lynching vote alone, it's game over. I think it's catch as catch can at this point, and try to take away the big point winners to get your own faction into position to win. I'd rather get my faction points and eliminate a threat to my life in the process than attempt to de-rail someone who's doing us good, and failing to limit the abilities of the assassins.

[Vince]

That post above should read: if they hit on the first vote, and ANY OTHER ASSASSIN VOTE, they win.

[McSweeny]

I could...but I still want MY faction to gain points, and I know an assassin. I don't think the risk is worth the reward. Plus, I put even odds on me being the assassins target this evening. I'd like to at least go out with a bang.

Faction B needs 4 points. If they hit on the first vote and the lynching vote, it's game over. If they hit on the lynching vote alone, it's game over. I think it's catch as catch can at this point, and try to take away the big point winners to get your own faction into position to win. I'd rather get my faction points and eliminate a threat to my life in the process than attempt to de-rail someone who's doing us good, and failing to limit the abilities of the assassins.i do think we underestimated the value of jail though. it seems to me that finding out who is in what faction could be equally as important as finding out who the assasins are

[Vince]

i do think we underestimated the value of jail though. it seems to me that finding out who is in what faction could be equally as important as finding out who the assasins are
Could be. I'm pretty sure I have a good grip on who is in what faction (my own at least), and I know that I'm doing everything I can to get my faction a win. If there was something else that would help (or you can convince me that doing something different helps my faction's cause), I'd be happy to switch my vote.

[Vince]

I'm off to work now...good luck guys.

[Poli]

Minor victory for my faction is a major one in my book. Even if I'm not in the right faction, at least the villagers win.

[Desnudo]

vote Execute McSweeney

[kingfc22]

Well, it's obvious that the other factions are just going to give this game to faction B. We only had two wolves left and I had already figured out after day one that Mr. W and McSweeny were wolves. (See post 351 and 375).

What we should of done is jail those in faction B in order for us to catch up since we know we could pretty much kill the wolves any day we wanted to.

But oh well...

UNVOTE JAIL ST. CRONIN

VOTE EXECUTE MCSWEENY

[McSweeny]

Well, it's obvious that the other factions are just going to give this game to faction B. We only had two wolves left and I had already figured out after day one that Mr. W and McSweeny were wolves. (See post 351 and 375).

What we should of done is jail those in faction B in order for us to catch up since we know we could pretty much kill the wolves any day we wanted to.yes this is what i was talking about when i said jail was undervalued

[Barkeep49]

There is no real doubt. McSweeny's last second please to jail someone, anyone, fall on deaf ears. In fact Ardent Enthusiast clearly more agitated about what is going on than McSweeny. McSweeny dies in a dignified matter, befitting his dignified life. A search of the roooms reveals he was indeed an ASSASSIN!

A few hours later the noble's dinner is interupted by cheering outside. It is clear that someone, most likely the old spymaster, has leaked word of the wisdom of RPI-Fan and his followers in discerning the evil that had infested the land. The crowd is chanting for him to be crowned king. When the nobles readjurn to the room after a little discussion they agree that they could do far worse than to be led by RPI-Fan and his faction. And so RPI-Fan is crowned king!

Normal Victory
RPI-Fan
st.cronin
Ardent enthusiast
Vince
Raiders Army

Minor Victory
George W Bush
Desnudo
Kingfc22
Passacaglia
Schmidity
Saldana


I will follow this post with some more info on the game.

However, I wanted to give a big thank you to everyone who played in this game. I am very interested in hearing your feedback. Clearly it was an easy win for the villagers. Did people still have fun? Assassins what did you think?
Jail was never seriously considered. What could be done to make this a more attractive option?

Thanks again to everyone for playing and I hope you had a good itme.

[Joe]

This will be a fairly basic game of Werewolf


This part was misleading.
;)

[RPI-Fan]

Barkeep:

First, thanks for taking so much time to run the game and it was indeed fun!

However, I think the point system really made things too opaque. I love the idea of being able to communicate within the villagers via the Faction Leader, and thought that added to the game.

In short, I think that a game very similar to this, with a lot of assasins and factions and extra roles, could be really fun, just with without the point system.

Again, thanks!

[RPI-Fan]

Damn, I didn't know ardent was in my Faction. Why didn't you follow any of the PM's I sent you???

[McSweeny]

i had a great time, even though our backs were against the wall almost from the start. I think future games will be a little more even now that we've got one game with this new point system under our belts.

[RPI-Fan]

BTW, want to hand the victory over to Vince... he pretty much won us the game.

I guess it wouldn't have mattered on the final day, since ardent would have gotten us the points for TazTFW, but I didn't even realize ardent was in our faction!

[McSweeny]

dola

and yeah we could have used one more assasin :)

[Barkeep49]

Below is a summary of the members of each faction and the total points they recieved followed by the number of points they recieved each day.

Faction A 9.5 -2.5 5 6
Faction Leader George W Bush
Blackmailed Blade6119
Dubb93
Fast Talking Noble/Vengeful Assassin Desnudo
Warrior Noble Coffee Warlord

Faction B 14.5 1.5 6.5 6.5
Faction Leader RPI-Fan
st.cronin
Sleepless Noble Ardent enthusiast
Vince
Sneaky Noble/Fast Talking Noble Raiders Army

Faction C 4.5 -1.5 2 4
Faction Leader Kingfc22
Passacaglia
Hoopsguy
Fast Talking Noble/Rich Noble Schmidity
Wise Noble/Lucky Noble Saldana

Assassins
Efficient Assassin McSweeny
Sly Assassin TazFTW
Assassin Mr. Wednesday

Overall you did a very good job of the math, which I expected. What I didn't expect was knowing two assassins from day 1, essentially, thus making things infinitely easier. Blade how did you peg Wednesday?

Again I really would appreciate your feedback as I might run this game either live or on another board in the future and want to know what could be done to make it more fun or balanced.

Thanks to everyone for playing and I hope you had a good time.

[Desnudo]

I found the major/minor victory system interesting, but I thought the math aspect made the game sort of dreary for me. I like it a lot more when people have to speculate rather than using straight math to deduce things.

[Joe]

I had no idea the factions were so big. I kept trying to analyze and find out who was in mine. I thought maybe RPI was in mine since his vote for McSweeny came so fast after my PM telling people to kill him, but I guess not.

[TazFTW]

I found the major/minor victory system interesting, but I thought the math aspect made the game sort of dreary for me. I like it a lot more when people have to speculate rather than using straight math to deduce things.
Word.

[RPI-Fan]

Another problem with the point system was being online at the start of the day.

It would have been hard for us to lose on that final day, as three members of a our faction locked up 1st vote points, and we just figured things out from there.

[McSweeny]

I found the major/minor victory system interesting, but I thought the math aspect made the game sort of dreary for me. I like it a lot more when people have to speculate rather than using straight math to deduce things.yeah if i was a noble i probably would have felt the same way

[Joe]

oh nevermind i read the major/minor victory thing wrong. only person i didnt know was in my faction was blade

[TazFTW]

Nuts.

I had a hunch last night that RPI-Fan was a leader and I think his comments about not knowing who is in his faction, who his leader is, and who the assassins are, would indicate he's a faction leader (or trying to play as one). st.cronin seems to be protective of RPI, so I'm thinking he's in RPI's faction (along with Vince). So for our next kill maybe we should target Vince or st.cronin and hope that one is a fast talker.
I guess I was correct. The problem was I had you guys pegged for Faction A. I had dubb and CW in Faction B and I was trying to stop Faction B from winning. Should have looked at the math more.

[Passacaglia]

Below is a summary of the members of each faction and the total points they recieved followed by the number of points they recieved each day.

Faction A 9.5 -2.5 5 6
Faction Leader George W Bush
Blackmailed Blade6119
Dubb93
Fast Talking Noble/Vengeful Assassin Desnudo
Warrior Noble Coffee Warlord

Faction B 14.5 1.5 6.5 6.5
Faction Leader RPI-Fan
st.cronin
Sleepless Noble Ardent enthusiast
Vince
Sneaky Noble/Fast Talking Noble Raiders Army

Faction C 4.5 -1.5 2 4
Faction Leader Kingfc22
Passacaglia
Hoopsguy
Fast Talking Noble/Rich Noble Schmidity
Wise Noble/Lucky Noble Saldana

Assassins
Efficient Assassin McSweeny
Sly Assassin TazFTW
Assassin Mr. Wednesday

Overall you did a very good job of the math, which I expected. What I didn't expect was knowing two assassins from day 1, essentially, thus making things infinitely easier. Blade how did you peg Wednesday?

Again I really would appreciate your feedback as I might run this game either live or on another board in the future and want to know what could be done to make it more fun or balanced.

Thanks to everyone for playing and I hope you had a good time.


WHA??!? I was told I was in Faction B! I *knew* my -2 didn't jive!

[kingfc22]

WHA??!? I was told I was in Faction B! I *knew* my -2 didn't jive! Who said you were in faction B?

I was pretty sure that my faction did not get a PM telling which one they were in because there wouldn't have been any speculation about 2 or 3 factions on day 1. I knew there was 3 factions since my PM said I was the leader of Faction C.

My idea worked for the most part on day 1, but I mistakenly thought Taz was good and Schmidty was a wolf.

[Coffee Warlord]

Ya'll had to kill me, didn't you. :)

[hoopsguy]

I felt like the assassins did what they could in terms of their kills - I didn't expect both Dubb and I to get whacked on Day 1. Was hoping for either protection for one of us or for the efficient assassin to be one of the roles that was not in the game.

Bad spot for the assassins to be in on Day 1, having to sacrifice their blackmail target for the life of an assassin.

Jail - would have been more attractive for me if there was some way to protect the jail. As it was, it felt like an open door policy for the assassins to break people out, but not for the nobles to be able to keep people in.

The point system, in this game, moved the game on a little more quickly than I would have liked. But I'm not sure if it would happen the same way if we ran the game back again. Perhaps the listing of points could read like your roles - "Points may be accumulated by some of the following actions - not all of these actions will actually result in points" or something like that so the points are more fuzzy than they were in this game.

When I was initially seeing Vince run math that suggeted that McSweeny was a noble I was very suspicious that he was an assassin and was playing with the numbers. I'm a little surprised that no assassin stepped up to try and steer the math analysis in some way/shape/form away from them.

If you want to encourage some more competitiveness between the factions include an extra cocky noble or two in the mix, provide a way for them to take out their own in the night actions if they are confident in their ability to sniff out the remaining assassins.

Just a few thoughts on ways to tweak what I found to be a fun rule set. Thanks for running the game.

[dubb93]

Why not keep the points total secret from everyone except the faction leader. Allow him to know how many points his faction has and make a rule that he can not share it(That would keep it from coming down to math). Keep the factions and major/minor victory thing. I'd be willing to give it another shot.

[dubb93]

Jail:

As far as jail I would atleast allow for it to be protected somehow, such as the warrior nobles may be able to protect it instead of a person. I see how jail would come into play, what could be better than filling the jail with the winning faction? Prehaps instead of a seperate sneaky nobles, allow the faction leader to be the seer type so that he can give the order to jail someone in his PM's.(IE he sees that someone is factions B leader and they are winning, he can give an order via PM to vote to jail that guy during the next day)

I also agree with more cocky nobles, prehaps 1 per faction to allow them to kill off rival factions more easily.

On second though prehaps the faction leader should recieve every factions score to allow him to decide which guy the cocky noble should kill, if any.

[Schmidty]

I had fun, although it was too short, and too mathematical. The points thing takes away alot of the intrigue and deception.

[saldana]

barkeep, i thought the factions aspect of the game made it a lot easier for the villagers, because a smart leader could and did let the whole faction in on who the other faction members are...which actually leads me to a question, the person you told me was my faction leader on night 0 is not the faction you have me in at the end?

[saldana]

dola, question to everyone, did anyone have any idea i was the wise noble? i was trying very hard to be subtle about giving up the information i had each day with out giving away my role...i gave up my view information every day in my posts, and was wondering if anyone picked up on it.

[Vince]

I'm real curious to know how Blade nailed Mr. Wednesday on day one. I think that was really what turned it for us, to be honest.

The math was fun to work out, but kind of made this into an exercise in rigid logic, rather than suspense and 'fuzzy' logic. It was a little too clear cut.

I had my entire faction nailed except for Ardent -- I just assumed that Blade was our other member. RPI did a great job of providing messages that allowed us to identify each other (though Ardent seemed to ignore them, he did have little blips where I thought he might be on our side).

When I read that Dubb put Faction B got a point for voting to jail another noble leader, I was positive that st. cronin's Jail vote had nailed GWB as another faction's leader -- but when I started doing the points, it didn't add up for us, since I didn't realize that Ardent was in our faction and Blade wasn't in our faction. Take away the + .5 for Blade's Wednesday vote, and add st. cronin's + .5 for the Jail GWB vote, and you get the right total.

I was quite sad when the roles were sent out -- at first I was the Wise Noble, and then I went from that to a vanilla regular noble role :)

[Blade6119]

I'm real curious to know how Blade nailed Mr. Wednesday on day one. I think that was really what turned it for us, to be honest.

As i stated when in the posts i wasnt dead set on him being an assasin, but here is the full truth(and no rpi, i wasnt a seer so get over it). When the initial roles got sent out i was a regular noble in faction A with Mr. W being our leader. I then recieved another PM tellin me barkeep had to shuffle teams aroud and now i was a regular noble in faction A but with GWB being my leader. I took his wording to mean he had re-assigned everyone and the curse of blade was the only reason i was a villager both times but more so still in A. I worked the odds for chances of a person being reassigned into the same faction and found them low. I figured at most one other person from my faction was still in it from the first go around, and i felt fairly strongly it wasnt Mr. W. SO i figured i had FAR greater odds he was an assasin then anyone else i had no clue about.

Really a fairly mundane answer, and one im not sure i was suppose to deduce. It was somewhat manipulating the knowledge i had, which isnt good. But its why i knew long before the vote who i was voting for and it would have taken a force to get me off it. I just didnt want to push hard as i had even odds he was just an opposing noble too.

It was mere luck that they blackmailed me on night 0, and then the vote on day one came down to the blackmailed person voting for an assain, or another assasin. If i hadnt died on day one, i prob. would have dropped the Mr. W thing and gone after other more opportune targets, so if my death was a 1-1 or even lead the way too mcsweeney with post 249 i couldnt be happier to help the villagers.

[Blade6119]

An idea i had about jail, might work....have it be so that if you execute someone you do not discover their roles but if you jail them you get to interrogate them and find out their role. Night kills would obviously reveal roles, but it might make it more balanced if people had to jail to find out roles. And once a game the wolves or a special villager role could release everyone in jail. Might make things very interesting. As for the ratio, i say they still count even if their in jail, and you cant be attacked at night while in jail or do night actions. Could make it interesting for another game

[Vince]

Wow -- so a complete lucky guess netted us one assassin, and McSweeney's early post showing an attempt to identify a faction leader gives us a tell to his 'wolfishness.' Bang, bang, the Assassins are down 66% already. Crazy.

[Mr. Wednesday]

As i stated when in the posts i wasnt dead set on him being an assasin, but here is the full truth(and no rpi, i wasnt a seer so get over it). When the initial roles got sent out i was a regular noble in faction A with Mr. W being our leader. I then recieved another PM tellin me barkeep had to shuffle teams aroud and now i was a regular noble in faction A but with GWB being my leader. I took his wording to mean he had re-assigned everyone and the curse of blade was the only reason i was a villager both times but more so still in A. I worked the odds for chances of a person being reassigned into the same faction and found them low. I figured at most one other person from my faction was still in it from the first go around, and i felt fairly strongly it wasnt Mr. W. SO i figured i had FAR greater odds he was an assasin then anyone else i had no clue about.
I think your calculation of probability is messed up. If both draws were random, I was no more likely to be an assassin than anybody else in the second draw. I was also no more likely to be in your group the second time around than anybody else.

Regardless, there was a lot more to the day 1 train wreck than the accusation of me. The other guy who drew attention was McSweeny, and my guess was that we could not afford to give up the two kills of the efficient assassin. I didn't want to give up the blackmailed player, so I held off on it as long as I could, and in the process put up a huge tell-tale in the point totals.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Game balance thoughts
* I was scared to death with the talk about faction leader messages that I would get noticed for not commenting on it. I think that's a problem, the best way to handle it is probably to make the assassins nominal faction members in terms of faction leader communications. The communication would still have a slight purpose, in terms of ascertaining faction members (for the leader) or suggesting strategy opposing another faction.

* I'm not sure about how the point totals worked out... maybe with a less bloodthirsty crowd, it wouldn't have wound up so stacked in favor of the nobles (e.g. if I had succeeded at getting Blade jailed, not killed). It pushes assassins to cast a vote early (so that there's less risk of it turning into a lynching vote), but that becomes a potential tell in itself.

[Vince]

I think the key to me was the combination of a lack of a role reveal AND no points being revealed until a lynch was made. Though I still think a non-lynch early in the game is a horrible thing for the villagers, if we had the points revealed earlier, I might have been more willing to go for a Jail vote early.

[Blade6119]

I think your calculation of probability is messed up. If both draws were random, I was no more likely to be an assassin than anybody else in the second draw. I was also no more likely to be in your group the second time around than anybody else.

If both were random, its still less likely that you would be in the same faction then anyone else being in A with me. Just like the odds of getting 6 tails in a row are less then mixed, its the same with factions. You technically had a 1/8 in my mind odds of being A again since you were A the first time. I never knew if you were an assasin or opposing noble until i started getting railroaded, but thats still more then i knew about anyone else.

As for mcsweeney, THE #1 REASON BY FAR was he made a comment about not knowing who his facton leader was...we were all told in our intial PMs who our leader was....he had no chance after that comment.

As for Faction B winning, it was just luck too that the first day kill was an A, and that all the night kills were A(dubb and coffee) or C(hoops) They won because they were mostly quiter then then the other factions.

[Blade6119]

Game balance thoughts
* I was scared to death with the talk about faction leader messages that I would get noticed for not commenting on it. I think that's a problem, the best way to handle it is probably to make the assassins nominal faction members in terms of faction leader communications. The communication would still have a slight purpose, in terms of ascertaining faction members (for the leader) or suggesting strategy opposing another faction.

I thought it wouldnt be a bad idea to have the assasins be faction C. Award and take away points but its all a mirage for others. Would make things more interesting.

And fyi, the leader knew everyone in his faction, so that would hurt if he thought the assasin was in his group. And how could an assasin get the messages without knowing who the leader is?

If i hadnt gotten lucky on you and mcsweeney hadnt made that huge mistake it would have been a lot closer...those two took a close game and made it a walk

[Vince]

I believe RPI-Fan was the only one who made a comment about not knowing who his faction leader was. A horrible move in hindsight, but he had st. cronin and I backing him up immediately. If there had been less attention paid elsewhere, this game could have gone VERY differently based upon that one casual slip of the tongue -- if the Assassins had tried to push towards us a little more based upon that statement...ugh. I remember when I read RPI's post there that I thought we were in deep shit :)

Blade, while overall, the odds of 6 coin flips ending up tails are less than 50/50, each individual coin flip has exactly a 50% chance of being heads or being tails. Just because you have hit tails 500 times in a row, doesn't mean that the next flip has any more or less chance of being tails. Mr. Wednesday had exactly the same chance of being in your faction as anyone else.

As for us being quiet -- st. cronin was the second person to vote, stirring up quite a bit of controversy if I remember correctly. Also, it can hardly be said that I was quiet :)

[Vince]

I thought it wouldnt be a bad idea to have the assasins be faction C. Award and take away points but its all a mirage for others. Would make things more interesting.
Agreed. It would be tough though, because after a few days, it would be obvious that one faction had many less members than the other factions, unless each faction was made up of 2-3 people.

And fyi, the leader knew everyone in his faction
Care to elaborate on that? I was fairly certain that the leader was NOT given a roster of his faction members, hence the importance of using the messages to identify members of the faction.

Anyhow, I'm going to try to get to bed at a fairly normal hour tonight (2:30 AM is sort of normal :)). Good game all.

[Vince]

BTW, want to hand the victory over to Vince... he pretty much won us the game.
Thanks...but really, the honors go more to Blade and st. cronin. I think with our pretty sizable points lead after Day 2 thanks to st. cronin's lynching vote on Mr. Wednesday, we were in pretty good shape, even if we didn't nail the big points for the McSweeney vote.

Perhaps making the points value to win the game a little higher (and perhaps hidden?) would help? As it was, a single faction getting the lynch vote on an assassin gave them almost 50% of the points needed to win the game. I guess with only three assassins to start, that makes sense...but it still seemed too quick.

[Blade6119]

Care to elaborate on that? I was fairly certain that the leader was NOT given a roster of his faction members, hence the importance of using the messages to identify members of the faction.

Anyhow, I'm going to try to get to bed at a fairly normal hour tonight (2:30 AM is sort of normal :)). Good game all.

Quite right there and on the RPI comment...wow, i didnt read nearly as well as i thought....i feel fairly stupid now. :(

[Blade6119]

Thanks...but really, the honors go more to Blade and st. cronin.
Dont be modest, all i did was take a guess and got a little lucky...hoops, dubb, and i were all worried after we died that the analyzing was dead, but you did a magnificient job. Bravo vince!

[Raiders Army]

Unfortunately I did not have time during the past three days to check out the thread completely. That's pretty much why I didn't sign up in the beginning. :)

I thought the points system detracted from the traditional game of werewolf as well. Maybe there's a way to "water" it down so there's more speculation?

[Poli]

Damn, I didn't know ardent was in my Faction. Why didn't you follow any of the PM's I sent you???I did, twice.

I quoted you and included the word "test" inside it.

I also voted "B"lade6119, since I wasn't voting for myself. I had problems deciphering what you were saying.

[Poli]

FWIW, I felt I was in Faction B, though I didn't have much proof other than Day 1 to Day 2's point change.

[Joe]

so was nobody but the leaders told what faction they were in at the beginning? I guess I told everyone in my faction that they were in A. heh.

[Poli]

I wish it had been that easy.

[Barkeep49]

Blade that's interesting logic, but doesn't perfectly work. For instance, King was a faction leader in both rolls.

As for the points I think the Assassins were at a disadvantage by not having a point victory in addition to all of the factors people have already mentioned. Would the anti-math people feel that if the Assassins were 1 of the factions (could be any of them) and accumulated points in a secret way that would help to alleviate the point disparity?

Overall I needed to give the Assassins a big leg up. The reason for this, beyond the points and messages, is that there were more bodyguards out there then normal. It worked out well that Penny/Raiders weren't around as having the Sneaky Noble was not a good thing, and was a role I didn't include when I did the 17 player game.

I think the idea of doing role reveals for lynches only if they have been sent to jail is an interesting idea.

Wolves I've been meaning to ask: If you three had done a concerted effort on Day 2 you might have saved Wednesday. Instead you turned it into a pile-on when McSweeny was already under the crosshairs. You might, especially Taz, have been able to turn the tide to RPI despite having people vouch for him (who says assassins can't vouch?) You guys had a tough game to play though so I do understand your reasonsing somewhat.

[Passacaglia]

Who said you were in faction B?

I was pretty sure that my faction did not get a PM telling which one they were in because there wouldn't have been any speculation about 2 or 3 factions on day 1. I knew there was 3 factions since my PM said I was the leader of Faction C.

My idea worked for the most part on day 1, but I mistakenly thought Taz was good and Schmidty was a wolf.

Barkeep's PM. Both of the PMs he sent me said I was in your faction, which was Faction B. Also, the first message of yours that he sent me said that it ws from GWB, which confused the heck out of me. Luckily, I straightened that out with him, but I still wish I had known I was actually in Faction C!

[Passacaglia]

As for Taz, I was hoping you would use some night message to let Taz clear himself -- maybe give him a keyword that he could tell the group, and our faction could go to bat for him. Of course, at the time, I also thought our faction was kicking butt!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Wolves I've been meaning to ask: If you three had done a concerted effort on Day 2 you might have saved Wednesday. Instead you turned it into a pile-on when McSweeny was already under the crosshairs. You might, especially Taz, have been able to turn the tide to RPI despite having people vouch for him (who says assassins can't vouch?) You guys had a tough game to play though so I do understand your reasonsing somewhat. I considered myself a goner after the point tallies on the first day -- there was simply no hiding that the negative points that should have been earned for casting a deciding vote on Blade didn't show up.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, I was hoping that a pile-on with RPI-Fan's misplaced comments would occur, but I didn't have any good ideas on seeding one.

[st.cronin]

I got confused when ardent came out as sleepless. I thought, based on his vote for Blade, that he was in my faction, but if he was in my faction, why did he have to come out as sleepless? He could have told us what he had seen without announcing to the other factions. I thought that was a bad play on your part, and made me doubt you.

[RPI-Fan]

I got confused when ardent came out as sleepless. I thought, based on his vote for Blade, that he was in my faction, but if he was in my faction, why did he have to come out as sleepless? He could have told us what he had seen without announcing to the other factions. I thought that was a bad play on your part, and made me doubt you.

Exactly... IIRC, I had sent out a PM specifically for that scenario.

[Vince]

Huh, I must have missed ardent's quote of RPI with 'test' in the message. That for me was the clincher for RA being in our faction. Coffee and Passacaglia also voted for Blade once I did, so I figured that the vote for Blade might not be enough to clear someone as in our faction.

Mr. Wednesday -- didn't Desnudo get hit with the deciding vote on Blade?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Vince, I know that the reason people piled on me was the math not working out on the vote for Blade otherwise, and I thought it was because I should have picked up a big point total that never showed up for the factions. (And at that, I thought you were one of the ones who discovered that...)

[Vince]

Dubb put the theory out there that you were an assassin because Faction B (who he had identified as me, Blade and st. cronin initially) got 1.5 points, none of us voted on Blade, and he knew that st. cronin voted to jail a faction leader for .5 points. He figured that Blade and I each got a half a point for voting for you, giving us 1.5 points.

Other people piled on, and when Blade was innocent, it seemed to indicate that you, the person he had voted for, was definitely not. Basically a clusterf*ck of voting for the right person based on the wrong evidence.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dang. Wish I'd had time to double-check the math and point out the error, I might have been able to push a vote to RPI-Fan. I was a little busy for it, though.

[Coffee Warlord]

Nope. You were dead in my sights. Though RPI was tomorrow had I survived. See what happens when you kill me? :)

[Vince]

Yeah, I think the fact that I had a ton of time to do analysis (because I stayed up until 6 friggin' AM after night 2), and the wolves had been sort of silent, was a huge boon for us.

[Vince]

Just as a question (sort of towards Coffee, but to anyone really) -- would anyone as the Warrior Noble protect someone they KNEW were not in their own faction?

[Poli]

I got confused when ardent came out as sleepless. I thought, based on his vote for Blade, that he was in my faction, but if he was in my faction, why did he have to come out as sleepless? He could have told us what he had seen without announcing to the other factions. I thought that was a bad play on your part, and made me doubt you.I wasn't sure I could PM back. Could I?

[Poli]

Exactly... IIRC, I had sent out a PM specifically for that scenario.I could never understand your PMs totally.

[Poli]

Huh, I must have missed ardent's quote of RPI with 'test' in the message. Funny, I don't remember seeing anyone else's.

[Poli]

Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by RPI-Fan
Might be fatal, but I'd hope it wouldn't be...

I'll come clean, I guess... I've been trying to separate myself from my faction a little bit, and that was just a little bit over the top (as I now obviously see)...

I suspect I'll have several people vouch for me before the day is over.test
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I really need to read this whole thread today. Darn work, Blitz, The League, and not having a dedicated internet in my new room.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->-----------------------------------------------------------------


This was originally post #334.

[RPI-Fan]

I could never understand your PMs totally.

I couldn't exactly be verbose with the 10-word limit. I did my best to pack information in there, while at the same time making it understandable (if you put a little bit of thought into it).

I think I might have done the former a little too much, though, as it seemed like st.cronin also had trouble with them.

[RPI-Fan]

Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by RPI-Fan
Might be fatal, but I'd hope it wouldn't be...

I'll come clean, I guess... I've been trying to separate myself from my faction a little bit, and that was just a little bit over the top (as I now obviously see)...

I suspect I'll have several people vouch for me before the day is over.test
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I really need to read this whole thread today. Darn work, Blitz, The League, and not having a dedicated internet in my new room.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->-----------------------------------------------------------------


This was originally post #334.

Ahhh... I see it.

I was getting at more of what Vince, st.c, and RA did, but obviously couldn't totally elaborate on that in my message.

[Poli]

Ahhh... I see it.

I was getting at more of what Vince, st.c, and RA did, but obviously couldn't totally elaborate on that in my message.Maybe I was just trying to be a little too sneaky.

[Vince]

No, that was excellent. I'm sure most people did exactly what I did -- skipped over the quoted material which we'd already read, and gone straight to your message. I should have been reading more carefully.

[Poli]

No, that was excellent. I'm sure most people did exactly what I did -- skipped over the quoted material which we'd already read, and gone straight to your message. I should have been reading more carefully.
That was my goal. I figured everyone would skip over it. Read my completely useless post, and ignore it.

I figured the entire faction would be pouring over the RPI quotes. Quite honestly, it's why I didn't know any of you. I checked inside the quotes.

[dubb93]

Dubb put the theory out there that you were an assassin because Faction B (who he had identified as me, Blade and st. cronin initially) got 1.5 points, none of us voted on Blade, and he knew that st. cronin voted to jail a faction leader for .5 points. He figured that Blade and I each got a half a point for voting for you, giving us 1.5 points.

Other people piled on, and when Blade was innocent, it seemed to indicate that you, the person he had voted for, was definitely not. Basically a clusterf*ck of voting for the right person based on the wrong evidence.

It was one of those situations where I knew McSweeney and Wednesday were assassins, but didn't really have a ton of evidence to back it up at that point, especially against Mr. Wednesday so I just threw an idea out there that sounded good.

[Passacaglia]

Sorry, king. I think if I had known we were Faction C, I would have voted like you asked me to.

What was the message that had everyone confused, anyway?

[Barkeep49]

I am currently revising the rules in order to run the game on another board. As part of the revised rules Assassins will be attempting to earn negative points. Do players think the following score system would be fair for the Assassins?


If a person who is executed is an assassin:
+3 points for the first vote cast
+5 points for the lynching votes (in other words if the final votes is 8-3, the 4th vote cast is considered the lynching vote)
+1 point for all other votes

If a person who is executed is a Noble:
-2 points for the first vote cast
-3.5 points for the lynching vote
-.5 points to each assassin who voted to execute (-1 point if the person executed is a Noble Leader, Warrior Noble, Sneaky Noble or the Wise Noble)

Other:
-.5 points to any assassin voting to jail or execute the Warrior Noble, Sneaky Noble, or Wise Noble, if that person does not receive the most votes
-.5 points for any person voting to free an assassin from jail, whether or not they receive the most votes
-1 points for the first person to vote to send a noble to jail, if the noble is sent to jail
-1 points for the “lynching” vote to send a noble to jail, if the noble is sent to jail