How much does offense increase over time in a fictional-start career?

[Ben E Lou]

Because of cohesion issue with the unrealistic nature of a fictional draft league, offensive numbers are at their lowest in the first seasons. For my own curiosity, I decided to take a look at it, using my current 29-year career. Here are the results of that look:


RUSHING
Teams run the ball significantly more in year one for some reason. Just to be sure about this, I ran several new fictional career starts, and it happened every time: in year one, the total league carries approach or exceed 15,000. What's interesting about that is that in my 29-year career, the average is 14,381, and once the career got past year six, 14,500 carries was topped only twice in 23 seasons, and both times just barely. However, I had 15,289 carries in season one, and the first six seasons saw six of the top eightt overall league carry totals. The first four seasons were the top four league carry totals, too. The 29-year average of carries was 5.94% lower than year one. Clearly there's a significant drop here. And it's worth noting again that in other league starts (with freshly generated roster sets each time) I had 14965, 15191, 15147, 15248 and 14997 in year one. This isn't just some anomaly.

Yards per carry only saw a modest increase, from 3.95 in year one to a 29-year average of 4.037. However, it's worth noting that the first three seasons saw three of the worst four league totals in history for ypc: 3.95, 3.95, 3.94. After those three years, only four of 26 seasons saw less than a 4.00 ypc league total.

PASSING
This is where things are really worth noting. Compare the year one totals to the 29-year league averages (average in red)

Completion Percentage: 57.61 (60.56)
Passing Yards: 95,106 (108927)
Yds/Cmp: 10.44 (10.80)
Yds/Att: 6.02 (6.54)

So, we're talking about completion percentage going up 5.12%, yards per attempt up 8.69%, and total passing yards increasing 14.53%.

TOTAL OFFENSE/SCORING
Season One Total Offense: 290.1ypg
29-Year Average: 311.48ypg

Season One Scoring: 17.6ppg
29-Year Average: 19.46ppg

So, a 7.37% increase in yards per game, and a 10.58% increase in scoring.


SO, WHAT'S IT ALL MEAN?
Not all that much, really. The engine does a great job of maintaining statistical stability after a few seasons, so there's no concern there. The biggest implication I can think of is that in MP, it's a good idea, when evaluation player performances, to compare their performances to the league averages for the given season, as opposed to your view of what a "good" number is. In 2006, a QB averaging 6.52 yards per attempt in my league would have been in the top ten in the league, and well above the league average of 6.02. In 2021, when the league averaged 6.78 yards per attempt, that same performance would have been #24, and quite a bit below average.

[Narcizo]

Isn't the passing thing down to the relatively large quantity of under-developed quarterbacks who start at the start of a fictional league?

[QuikSand]

Because of cohesion issue with the unrealistic nature of a fictional draft league, offensive numbers are at their lowest in the first seasons.

Okay, I'll take this at face value, as I presume it to be a supported statement.

Is the thinking that cohesion matters more to the offense than it does to the defense? Otherwise, if every team has equally low cohesion, wouldn't this just be a wash?

[KWhit]

Okay, I'll take this at face value, as I presume it to be a supported statement.

Is the thinking that cohesion matters more to the offense than it does to the defense? Otherwise, if every team has equally low cohesion, wouldn't this just be a wash?

That's the first question I asked SD the other day when we discussed this.

[DougWyatt]

That's the first question I asked SD the other day when we discussed this.

....... ?

[Cringer]

....... ?

It's a secret. ;)

[jzicc]

Okay, I'll take this at face value, as I presume it to be a supported statement.

Is the thinking that cohesion matters more to the offense than it does to the defense? Otherwise, if every team has equally low cohesion, wouldn't this just be a wash?

Would it be right to postulate that cohesion is a major factor on the offensive line where as it's a minor factor elsewhere?

[adubroff]

I would think part of this issue would be due to the initial random coaches you (and your AI opponents) get stuck with. Over time the coaches are improved and there's more natural selection having taken place to cause the average coach to be better.